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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Target Higher Ground Ahead of Critical Fed Decision Amid Climbing Channel Support

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  • June 16, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair starts the week softer, trading marginally below mid-1.1500s as the US Dollar modestly rallies. That said, the pair is still just short of multi-year highs near 1.1630 with traders holding out for the pivotal FOMC decision on Wednesday that might influence near-term market sentiment. Though probability of a September Fed rate cut constrains aggressive USD purchases, the hawkish bias of the European Central Bank remains supportive of the euro. Technically, the pair is still in a strong short-term bull trend in an ascending channel, so there is more potential for further price gains. Significant support is around 1.1500 and 1.1430, with the levels of resistance at 1.1600 and 1.1630 likely to cap the price unless bullish momentum accelerates. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are waiting for the Federal Reserve policy announcement, which has the potential to dictate the near-term trajectory of the USD and EUR/USD pair. • Signs of the European Central Bank nearing the close of its rate-cutting phase continue to underpin euro strength. • Levels of support are at 1.1500 and 1.1430, with nearest resistance at 1.1600 and the multi-year high at 1.1630. • Mild US Dollar gains may cap EUR/USD upside, but any indication of fresh USD weakness would encourage fresh buying interest in the pair. EUR/USD pair is trading with a modest bearish inclination at the start of the new week, just below the mid-1.1500s as there has been a modest rise in the US Dollar. Even with the minor retreat, the pair is still near its highest level since October 2021, underpinned by speculation that the Federal Reserve could restore rate cuts as soon as September. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s recent turn to a hawkish policy has kept supporting the euro. Technically, the pair is still in a well-established ascending channel, and this represents a short-term bull trend that benefits buyers. Support comes in at 1.1500 and 1.1430, while resistance comes in at 1.1600 and 1.1630, with a possible breakout above 1.1660 paving the way for more gains towards the 1.1700 level. EUR/USD begins the week lower but remains close to multi-year highs as FOMC decision is awaited. September’s possible rate cut by the Fed and ECB’s aggressive stance continue to fuel euro’s upward momentum. Technical charts indicate the pair is in a bullish trend inside an uptrending channel. •  EUR/USD is trading with a weak bearish inclination below mid-1.1500s during early Asian market hours. •  The currency pair is hovering close to its all-time high since October 2021 at around the 1.1630 level. •  Market attention is riveted on the next FOMC decision, with anticipation of a September Fed rate reduction. •  The European Central Bank’s aggressive policy orientation underpins ongoing euro appreciation. •  The uptrending channel on the daily chart shows a robust short-term bullish trend. •  Support levels are at 1.1500, 1.1450, and 1.1430; a fall below would target 1.1370. •  Resistance levels are at 1.1570, 1.1600, and 1.1630, with a breakout above 1.1660 potentially unlocking the door to 1.1700. The EUR/USD currency pair starts the new trading week on a reserved note as traders wait for the much-awaited FOMC policy decision later on Wednesday. The result of this meeting is likely to give new hints on the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve, with increasing rumor that the Fed might restart its rate-cutting cycle as soon as September. This US interest rate uncertainty has curbed aggressive action in the US Dollar, leaving traders in wait-and-see mode before the central bank’s announcement. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the European side, the recent cues from the European Central Bank indicate that its rate-cutting cycle is near completion, which has provided some relief to the euro in recent trading sessions. The policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB has acted in favor of the euro’s relative strength. In the meantime, wider market sentiment isstill guarded in response to mixed global economic data and continued geopolitical uncertainty, keeping traders on their guard and choosing to be selective in their positioning as they wade through the week’s decisive events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to be well-contained within an uptrending channel, showing a strong short-term bullish trend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive range, indicating that the momentum is still in the hands of buyers. There is immediate support at the 1.1500 psychological mark, with additional weakness cushioned by the 1.1450-1.1430 area, where horizontal and trendline support converge. To the upside, resistance markers are 1.1570 and 1.1600, with a strong break above the recent high at 1.1630 potentially setting the stage for a journey to the 1.1700 handle. FORECAST Should the uptrend momentum continue, EUR/USD has the potential to test immediate resistances of 1.1570 and 1.1600 in the short run. A solid breakout above the latest multi-year high at 1.1630 might initiate new buying interest, driving the pair up towards the top line of the uptrending channel around 1.1660. Stronger support above this level might pave the way for an additional rally up to the psychological 1.1700 threshold, solidifying the positive view. On the negative side, any corrective pullback will likely have early support around the 1.1500 psychological level. A break below that level could expose the 1.1450-1.1430 horizontal support area, which also overlays the lower edge of the ascending channel. Should bearish pressure increase and the pair fall below this key support, EUR/USD can continue its slide down towards 1.1400, with the next significant support lying around 1.1370-1.1365.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Gains Momentum Above 1.0800 As Dollar Weakens

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  • March 24, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is gaining strength once again above the 1.0800 level, driven by bullish technicals and a weakening US dollar. The pair has rallied in the early Asian trading session, spurred by fears of an economic slowdown in the US under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Technically, the bullish bias is still in place as the price stays above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI continuing to indicate upward momentum. Important resistance is at 1.0955, with a possible move towards psychological level 1.1000, while short-term support is at 1.0775. Investors now look out for important PMI releases from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD continues to be bullish as long as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at the current vicinity of the 1.0600–1.0605 region. • 14-day RSI sitting above 59 reiterates high bullish pressure, with possible scope for higher prices. • Initial resistance comes at 1.0955 (March 18 high), then possibly challenging the 1.1000 psychological mark and 1.1111 Bollinger Band top level. • Traders will need to look out for Eurozone, German, and US PMI reports for March, which will likely be instrumental catalysts for the next move. Traders need to keep a close eye on significant technical and fundamental pointers while EUR/USD continues to trade in a bullish manner above the 100-day EMA. The 14-day RSI continues to hold strong near 59, reflecting continuous upward momentum in the near term. On the positive side, the initial resistance is present at 1.0955, followed by the psychological 1.1000 level and the top of the Bollinger Band at 1.1111. On the negative side, the first support comes at 1.0775, with the key support level at 1.0600–1.0605. Apart from this, future releases of PMI data for the Eurozone, Germany, and the US have the potential to be key market drivers, dictating the pair’s next trend direction. EUR/USD remains in a bullish tone above the 100-day EMA, with good RSI momentum. Major resistance is at 1.0955 and 1.1000, while support is at 1.0775. Traders look to the next Eurozone and US PMI releases for new directional signals. • EUR/USD bounces back above 1.0800, demonstrating strength in the early Asian session and ending a three-day losing streak. • The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) supports bullish momentum and maintains the overall technical scenario upbeat. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains north of the midline at approximately 59.35, which reflects ongoing bullish inclination. • The immediate resistance markers to focus on are 1.0955 (March 18 high) and the psychological level of 1.1000, with deeper targets towards 1.1111. • The initial support is at 1.0775, and the critical support area is at 1.0600–1.0605 (100-day EMA and round figure area). • Underlying pressure on the US dollar continues as investors worry about economic slowdown due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. • Major economic event risk in the near term includes PMI readings from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US, which may trigger the next significant move in the pair. The EUR/USD currency pair has continued to exhibit new strength as it rises higher in Monday’s Asian session, attributing to positive sentiment across the Eurozone. The recovery follows increasing fears of a possible US economic slowdown, sparked by factors that have begun to put pressure on the US dollar. Market participants are monitoring closely the international macroeconomic climate, especially the effect of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies that have created uncertainty among investors. This change in sentiment has made way for a favorable backdrop for the euro to pick up speed at the beginning of the week. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Looking forward, traders are focusing their attention on key economic data releases, most notably preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers for the Eurozone, Germany, and the US. These readings will provide new clues as to the vitality of business activity in these pivotal regions and could have an influence on investors’ expectations. With world markets still sensitive to economic data and policy cues, forthcoming data will be key in determining the general outlook for the EUR/USD pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is bullish as it resists below key moving averages, indicating underlying strength in the trend. The duo’s position above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) reflects persistent bullish sentiment, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the midline, reflecting ongoing upward momentum. If the buying interest continues, the pair can slowly move towards higher resistance levels, and any downward movement will likely find support around recent lows. Overall, the technical setup favors a bullish bias in the near term. FORECAST EUR/USD will probable challenge the crucial resistance levels in the upcoming sessions. The initial level of resistance seems to be around the 1.0955 level, a recent high. A successful advance above this zone can set the stage for a move towards the psychological level of 1.1000. Additional gains here can push the pair towards 1.1111, the Bollinger Band upper boundary, indicating prolonged bullish outlook. Encouraging economic news from the Eurozone or additional US dollar weakness may serve as triggers for this move higher. Conversely, if selling mount, the initial level to look for is 1.0775, which was a recent low and is serving as immediate support. A decline below this level could prompt additional downturns towards the key support area of 1.0605–1.0600, which also coincides with the 100-day EMA. A prolonged dip below this zone may change the market mood and leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, the next target being about 1.0418. More robust than anticipated US economic numbers or dovish policy announcements might boost the bearish pressure.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD surges past 1.0300 due to dollar weakness: What to expect?

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  • January 20, 2025
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EUR/USD retook the 1.0300 level after the US Dollar fell as the market cheered over the weak US economic data on retail sales and jobless claims. This comes ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, which is increasing market uncertainty amid rumors of possible trade tariff policies. Continuation of diverging monetary policies from the Fed, signaling caution in the rate cuts, and the ECB  is set to continue to weigh on the pair. Short-term recovery is possible, but long-term drivers will be a prominent challenge, such as US Dollar strength, geopolitical risks, and weak economic performances in the eurozone, especially Germany. KEY LOOKOUTS • Watch for further weakness in the US Dollar, driven by economic data, Fed policy signals, and Trump’s trade proposals. • The Fed’s cautious rate strategy and ECB’s growth focus create contrasting pressures, influencing EUR/USD’s ability to sustain gains. • Key eurozone figures like inflation and current account data on January 17 could significantly impact EUR/USD’s short-term movement. • Additional risks come from Trump’s trade tariffs and global uncertainties, which could reshape the monetary and economic landscape for EUR/USD. EUR/USD is subject to US Dollar trends, such as economic data, Fed policy changes, and Trump’s trade plans. Diverging monetary policies between the Fed, being cautious, and the ECB, which is focused on growth, will continue to drive the outlook for the pair. Short-term direction may come from eurozone data, such as inflation and current account numbers. Geopolitical uncertainty, such as trade tariffs, may also continue to drive volatility and reshape the economic landscape, which will challenge the sustained recovery of EUR/USD. EUR/USD faces pressures from diverging Fed-ECB policies, with key focus on US Dollar trends, eurozone data, and geopolitical risks, including Trump’s proposed trade tariffs and economic uncertainties. • Disappointing US retail sales, jobless claims, and dovish Fed signals have weighed on the Greenback, allowing EUR/USD to reclaim 1.0300. • The Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts contrasts with the ECB’s focus on supporting growth, adding pressure on EUR/USD’s recovery. • The threat of President-elect Trump’s reinstatement of trade tariffs will likely increase US inflation and alter monetary policy, which in turn will influence EUR/USD. • Global trade tensions, fiscal policy changes, and eurozone uncertainties, especially in Germany, are major drivers for EUR/USD. • Support is at 1.0176 and parity at 1.0000, while resistance is seen at 1.0436, 1.0506, and the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. • Inflation and current account figures on January 17 will be crucial to determine the state of eurozone’s economy and movement in EUR/USD. • Momentum indicators like RSI and ADX have indicated bearish trends, suggesting that EUR/USD may fail to hold onto gains in this market environment. EUR/USD has managed to recover the 1.0300 level, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar, which was driven by weak economic data, including retail sales and jobless claims, as well as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, with traders concerned about his proposed trade tariffs, which could drive up US inflation and impact monetary policy. Central banks are diverging approaches to make things worse for the pair, with the Fed indicating hesitance on more rate cuts and the European Central Bank maintaining its growth thrust even in the face of rising inflation. These two levels have their support at 1.0176 and resistance at 1.0436-EUR/USD Daily Price Chart. Sources: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA Further data releases from the eurozone could include inflation, which will come out on January 17, and current account figures, all helping to provide further clarification regarding the state of the region’s economy as well as touching upon EUR/USD. The overall trend is bearish in the short run with the pair below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779, while further politicized global trade risks and economic woes within Germany further darken the horizon. Indicators like the RSI and ADX, indicating weak short-term prospects of recovery, present challenges in this scenario with regard to how the EUR/USD is expected to move given conflicting monetary policies and economic conditions of uncertainty that surround the market currently. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS In technical analysis, EUR/USD is seen as remaining in a longer-term downtrend while staying below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. The nearer supports listed are 1.0176, parity at 1.0000, then further down at 0.9935 and 0.9730. These might serve as potential upside targets should the bearish momentum continue. Downside resistance is seen at 1.0436 and 1.0506, the 55-day Simple Moving Average, and at 1.0629, the December peak. Further short-term resistance levels to watch for any recovery attempts occur at 1.0354 and 1.0434. Momentum indicators are the RSI near 41, which states range-bound conditions, and ADX at 35, marking a strengthening of the bearish trend, meaning this pair may lack the strength required to break upward without a robust catalyst. FORECAST EUR/USD stands a chance for upward movement as it breaks over key resistance zones at 1.0436 and 1.0506 or the 55-day SMA. A continued rally might aim for the peak in December at 1.0629 and, with strong enough bullish momentum, even the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. Improving conditions for an uptrend include further US Dollar weakness on disappointing economic data, or dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, or market expectations for less aggressive rate hikes. Additionally, stronger-than-expected eurozone data, such as inflation or current account figures, could boost the Euro, providing short-term recovery opportunities. On the downside, EUR/USD remains under pressure from its broader bearish trend, with support levels at 1.0176, parity at 1.0000, and further down at 0.9935 and 0.9730. An inability to sustain these levels may precipitate further losses, especially with a strengthening US Dollar created by strong economic performance, hawkish Fed surprises, or increased geopolitical risks. The failure of eurozone economies, especially Germany, along with the possibility of global trade tensions and fiscal policy uncertainties, could also weigh significantly on the Euro, where deeper lows for EUR/USD might occur. This might even strengthen bearish sentiment in the short to medium term, as the pair

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