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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Gains Momentum Above 1.0800 As Dollar Weakens

The EUR/USD currency pair is gaining strength once again above the 1.0800 level, driven by bullish technicals and a weakening US dollar. The pair has rallied in the early Asian trading session, spurred by fears of an economic slowdown in the US under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Technically, the bullish bias is still in place as the price stays above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI continuing to indicate upward momentum. Important resistance is at 1.0955, with a possible move towards psychological level 1.1000, while short-term support is at 1.0775. Investors now look out for important PMI releases from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD continues to be bullish as long as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at the current vicinity of the 1.0600–1.0605 region. • 14-day RSI sitting above 59 reiterates high bullish pressure, with possible scope for higher prices. • Initial resistance comes at 1.0955 (March 18 high), then possibly challenging the 1.1000 psychological mark and 1.1111 Bollinger Band top level. • Traders will need to look out for Eurozone, German, and US PMI reports for March, which will likely be instrumental catalysts for the next move. Traders need to keep a close eye on significant technical and fundamental pointers while EUR/USD continues to trade in a bullish manner above the 100-day EMA. The 14-day RSI continues to hold strong near 59, reflecting continuous upward momentum in the near term. On the positive side, the initial resistance is present at 1.0955, followed by the psychological 1.1000 level and the top of the Bollinger Band at 1.1111. On the negative side, the first support comes at 1.0775, with the key support level at 1.0600–1.0605. Apart from this, future releases of PMI data for the Eurozone, Germany, and the US have the potential to be key market drivers, dictating the pair’s next trend direction. EUR/USD remains in a bullish tone above the 100-day EMA, with good RSI momentum. Major resistance is at 1.0955 and 1.1000, while support is at 1.0775. Traders look to the next Eurozone and US PMI releases for new directional signals. • EUR/USD bounces back above 1.0800, demonstrating strength in the early Asian session and ending a three-day losing streak. • The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) supports bullish momentum and maintains the overall technical scenario upbeat. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains north of the midline at approximately 59.35, which reflects ongoing bullish inclination. • The immediate resistance markers to focus on are 1.0955 (March 18 high) and the psychological level of 1.1000, with deeper targets towards 1.1111. • The initial support is at 1.0775, and the critical support area is at 1.0600–1.0605 (100-day EMA and round figure area). • Underlying pressure on the US dollar continues as investors worry about economic slowdown due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. • Major economic event risk in the near term includes PMI readings from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US, which may trigger the next significant move in the pair. The EUR/USD currency pair has continued to exhibit new strength as it rises higher in Monday’s Asian session, attributing to positive sentiment across the Eurozone. The recovery follows increasing fears of a possible US economic slowdown, sparked by factors that have begun to put pressure on the US dollar. Market participants are monitoring closely the international macroeconomic climate, especially the effect of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies that have created uncertainty among investors. This change in sentiment has made way for a favorable backdrop for the euro to pick up speed at the beginning of the week. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Looking forward, traders are focusing their attention on key economic data releases, most notably preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers for the Eurozone, Germany, and the US. These readings will provide new clues as to the vitality of business activity in these pivotal regions and could have an influence on investors’ expectations. With world markets still sensitive to economic data and policy cues, forthcoming data will be key in determining the general outlook for the EUR/USD pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is bullish as it resists below key moving averages, indicating underlying strength in the trend. The duo’s position above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) reflects persistent bullish sentiment, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the midline, reflecting ongoing upward momentum. If the buying interest continues, the pair can slowly move towards higher resistance levels, and any downward movement will likely find support around recent lows. Overall, the technical setup favors a bullish bias in the near term. FORECAST EUR/USD will probable challenge the crucial resistance levels in the upcoming sessions. The initial level of resistance seems to be around the 1.0955 level, a recent high. A successful advance above this zone can set the stage for a move towards the psychological level of 1.1000. Additional gains here can push the pair towards 1.1111, the Bollinger Band upper boundary, indicating prolonged bullish outlook. Encouraging economic news from the Eurozone or additional US dollar weakness may serve as triggers for this move higher. Conversely, if selling mount, the initial level to look for is 1.0775, which was a recent low and is serving as immediate support. A decline below this level could prompt additional downturns towards the key support area of 1.0605–1.0600, which also coincides with the 100-day EMA. A prolonged dip below this zone may change the market mood and leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, the next target being about 1.0418. More robust than anticipated US economic numbers or dovish policy announcements might boost the bearish pressure.

Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD surges past 1.0300 due to dollar weakness: What to expect?

EUR/USD retook the 1.0300 level after the US Dollar fell as the market cheered over the weak US economic data on retail sales and jobless claims. This comes ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, which is increasing market uncertainty amid rumors of possible trade tariff policies. Continuation of diverging monetary policies from the Fed, signaling caution in the rate cuts, and the ECB  is set to continue to weigh on the pair. Short-term recovery is possible, but long-term drivers will be a prominent challenge, such as US Dollar strength, geopolitical risks, and weak economic performances in the eurozone, especially Germany. KEY LOOKOUTS • Watch for further weakness in the US Dollar, driven by economic data, Fed policy signals, and Trump’s trade proposals. • The Fed’s cautious rate strategy and ECB’s growth focus create contrasting pressures, influencing EUR/USD’s ability to sustain gains. • Key eurozone figures like inflation and current account data on January 17 could significantly impact EUR/USD’s short-term movement. • Additional risks come from Trump’s trade tariffs and global uncertainties, which could reshape the monetary and economic landscape for EUR/USD. EUR/USD is subject to US Dollar trends, such as economic data, Fed policy changes, and Trump’s trade plans. Diverging monetary policies between the Fed, being cautious, and the ECB, which is focused on growth, will continue to drive the outlook for the pair. Short-term direction may come from eurozone data, such as inflation and current account numbers. Geopolitical uncertainty, such as trade tariffs, may also continue to drive volatility and reshape the economic landscape, which will challenge the sustained recovery of EUR/USD. EUR/USD faces pressures from diverging Fed-ECB policies, with key focus on US Dollar trends, eurozone data, and geopolitical risks, including Trump’s proposed trade tariffs and economic uncertainties. • Disappointing US retail sales, jobless claims, and dovish Fed signals have weighed on the Greenback, allowing EUR/USD to reclaim 1.0300. • The Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts contrasts with the ECB’s focus on supporting growth, adding pressure on EUR/USD’s recovery. • The threat of President-elect Trump’s reinstatement of trade tariffs will likely increase US inflation and alter monetary policy, which in turn will influence EUR/USD. • Global trade tensions, fiscal policy changes, and eurozone uncertainties, especially in Germany, are major drivers for EUR/USD. • Support is at 1.0176 and parity at 1.0000, while resistance is seen at 1.0436, 1.0506, and the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. • Inflation and current account figures on January 17 will be crucial to determine the state of eurozone’s economy and movement in EUR/USD. • Momentum indicators like RSI and ADX have indicated bearish trends, suggesting that EUR/USD may fail to hold onto gains in this market environment. EUR/USD has managed to recover the 1.0300 level, buoyed by a weaker US Dollar, which was driven by weak economic data, including retail sales and jobless claims, as well as dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, with traders concerned about his proposed trade tariffs, which could drive up US inflation and impact monetary policy. Central banks are diverging approaches to make things worse for the pair, with the Fed indicating hesitance on more rate cuts and the European Central Bank maintaining its growth thrust even in the face of rising inflation. These two levels have their support at 1.0176 and resistance at 1.0436-EUR/USD Daily Price Chart. Sources: TradingView, Prepared By ELLYANA Further data releases from the eurozone could include inflation, which will come out on January 17, and current account figures, all helping to provide further clarification regarding the state of the region’s economy as well as touching upon EUR/USD. The overall trend is bearish in the short run with the pair below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779, while further politicized global trade risks and economic woes within Germany further darken the horizon. Indicators like the RSI and ADX, indicating weak short-term prospects of recovery, present challenges in this scenario with regard to how the EUR/USD is expected to move given conflicting monetary policies and economic conditions of uncertainty that surround the market currently. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS In technical analysis, EUR/USD is seen as remaining in a longer-term downtrend while staying below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. The nearer supports listed are 1.0176, parity at 1.0000, then further down at 0.9935 and 0.9730. These might serve as potential upside targets should the bearish momentum continue. Downside resistance is seen at 1.0436 and 1.0506, the 55-day Simple Moving Average, and at 1.0629, the December peak. Further short-term resistance levels to watch for any recovery attempts occur at 1.0354 and 1.0434. Momentum indicators are the RSI near 41, which states range-bound conditions, and ADX at 35, marking a strengthening of the bearish trend, meaning this pair may lack the strength required to break upward without a robust catalyst. FORECAST EUR/USD stands a chance for upward movement as it breaks over key resistance zones at 1.0436 and 1.0506 or the 55-day SMA. A continued rally might aim for the peak in December at 1.0629 and, with strong enough bullish momentum, even the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. Improving conditions for an uptrend include further US Dollar weakness on disappointing economic data, or dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, or market expectations for less aggressive rate hikes. Additionally, stronger-than-expected eurozone data, such as inflation or current account figures, could boost the Euro, providing short-term recovery opportunities. On the downside, EUR/USD remains under pressure from its broader bearish trend, with support levels at 1.0176, parity at 1.0000, and further down at 0.9935 and 0.9730. An inability to sustain these levels may precipitate further losses, especially with a strengthening US Dollar created by strong economic performance, hawkish Fed surprises, or increased geopolitical risks. The failure of eurozone economies, especially Germany, along with the possibility of global trade tensions and fiscal policy uncertainties, could also weigh significantly on the Euro, where deeper lows for EUR/USD might occur. This might even strengthen bearish sentiment in the short to medium term, as the pair