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EUR/USD Pulls Back After ECB Hawkish Signal Before Major Eurozone Data and US Nonfarm Payrolls

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  • June 6, 2025
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EUR/USD Pulls Back After ECB Hawkish Signal Before Major Eurozone Data and US Nonfarm PayrollsEUR/USD jumped briefly to a nearly two-month high around 1.1500 after the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered rates by 25 basis points, with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s unusually hawkish tone indicating the end of the easing cycle. Yet, the duo has since retreated under 1.1430 as investors become risk-averse ahead of key Eurozone economic releases such as Q1 GDP and April retail sales and highly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls data. Market attention is still on how the data points will impact the Euro and the US Dollar outlook under persistent global trade uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The May jobs report, which is forecasted to indicate slower private payroll expansion and a modest increase in unemployment, may strongly influence USD strength and EUR/USD direction. •  The last GDP reading is seen to be revised slightly higher to 0.4% quarterly expansion, which would support the Euro if borne out. •  Growth in consumption is forecasted steadily, which will enable estimates of consumer confidence as well as economic momentum in the Eurozone. •  Investors will monitor additional clues on the possibility of more rate cuts or the conclusion of the easing cycle in the wake of ongoing economic uncertainties. After the European Central Bank lowered interest rates and President Lagarde delivered surprisingly hawkish comments, the Euro initially jumped to fresh six-week highs versus the US Dollar. But the momentum lost steam as investors became wary in the face of important Eurozone economic indicators and the decisive US Nonfarm Payrolls release. While the ECB indicated that the cycle of easing could be close to the end, there are still concerns surrounding inflation and economic growth. Market players are presently concerned with whether future data will support the strength of the Euro or provide an opportunity for reassessment of the US Dollar in light of continued trade tensions and mixed US economic indicators. EUR/USD surged to a two-month peak following the rate cut by the ECB and hawkish sentiment but retreated as market players waited for critical Eurozone data and the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Market attention remains on whether these releases will validate the Euro’s strength or will strengthen the US Dollar. • EUR/USD hit a near two-month high of 1.1495 after the rate cut and hawkish words from President Lagarde. • ECB reduced the Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.0%, hinting at a possible end to the easing cycle. • Lagarde’s positive but cautious tone decreased market hopes for future cuts in the rate this year. • Eurozone’s Q1 GDP will be revised slightly higher to 0.4% quarterly expansion. • Eurozone’s April retail sales are forecast to record stable year-on-year growth of about 1.4%. • US Nonfarm Payrolls report is eagerly awaited, with the view for slower employment growth and a marginal increase in unemployment. • EUR/USD is probing the key technical support at 1.1400, with the resistance near 1.1495 and 1.1585 Fibonacci levels. Euro jumped to its best level in almost two months after the recent rate cut by the European Central Bank and the unexpectedly hawkish message conveyed by ECB President Christine Lagarde. While the central bank reduced interest rates as anticipated, Lagarde’s remarks indicated the period of monetary easing could be coming to an end, leading investors to reassess their expectations of future policy action. This change in sentiment aided confidence in the Euro, which was further bolstered by favorable news on German government bonds and an overall dovish yet positive sentiment towards the outlook for the Eurozone economy. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of this optimism, market players are still wary as they wait for crucial Eurozone economic data, such as the revised first quarter GDP and April retail sales. These numbers will be crucial in gauging the health of the Eurozone economy and will determine the direction of the currency in the near future. In the meantime, focus is also closely on the forthcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may influence the US Dollar and influence EUR/USD action in light of ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade talks and general global economic sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has been on an upward trend since the middle of May, marked by higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish momentum. The duo encountered some resistance at the psychological 1.1500 level, where bears stepped in to halt the rally for the moment. Now, the price is falling back to an important support level of 1.1400, which overlaps with an uptrend line and a round-number level that traders closely monitor. A violation of this support might put the current bullish trend into question, with additional downside targets at 1.1360 and 1.1315. On the downside, levels to monitor for resistance are the recent high at 1.1495 and the 261.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.1585, which could serve as potential ceilings to further rises. FORECAST In the future, provided that the Eurozone economic figures meet or beat expectations—i.e., a revised positive GDP and consistent retail sales growth—EUR/USD might recover bullish momentum and try to breach above the latest resistance at 1.1500. Strong data and muted US employment numbers may further undermine the US Dollar, which might drive the pair to the next significant resistance level of approximately 1.1585. Such a move would add strength to the market sentiment that the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle, which would bolster the strength of the Euro in the medium term. On the other hand, if Eurozone numbers disappoint or the US Nonfarm Payrolls reading comes in surprising on the positive side with more-than-anticipated job growth, the Euro would stand to lose value. In this scenario, EUR/USD would head to its important support lines around 1.1400 and could even fall further to 1.1360 or 1.1315. A breach below these support levels may indicate changing sentiment, threatening the recent bullish momentum and inviting further weakness as traders reevaluate the ECB’s monetary policy prospects and the relative

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Loses Ground in the Run-Up to Eurozone Inflation Data as US Dollar Experiences Technical Correction

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  • June 3, 2025
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EUR/USD is losing ground as the US Dollar recovers on technical basis even as the US manufacturing data remains soft. Market players remain focused on the release of forthcoming Eurozone HICP inflation data, which may set the direction for ECB policy. In the meantime, trade tensions have flared again after Donald Trump suggested doubling steel and aluminium tariffs, which elicited a sharp retort from the European Union. With increasingly worrying fears about global trade and economic deceleration, investors stay on guard ahead of major US labor market releases, which may further influence currency action. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets are looking forward to the publication of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) that will provide a glimpse into the European Central Bank (ECB) policy direction. • US Dollar recovers on technical correction, even as a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI reading hints at possible stagflation pressures in the US economy. • Trump’s suggestion that tariffs on steel and aluminium be doubled in size stokes concerns about intensifying trade tensions, prompting denials from the European Union and putting at risk current negotiations. • Investors look to the next US JOLTS report for new labour market indications that will affect USD strength and inform near-term EUR/USD action. EUR/USD is lower around 1.1420 in the Asian session on Tuesday, as the US Dollar experiences a technical correction in spite of continued fears of economic slowdown. The pair fell after its robust performance in the last session, having appreciated more than 0.50%. Traders now await the forthcoming Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation to see how it affects European Central Bank policy expectations. On the other hand, US manufacturing activity continues to shrink as the ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, a third month of falling, adding to the market angst. Adding to market nerves, President Donald Trump’s plan to double steel and aluminium tariffs has heightened trade tensions concerns as the European Union threatened possible countermeasures that could threaten bilateral talks. EUR/USD drifts lower around 1.1420 on technical bounce for US Dollar, down on poor US manufacturing data. Market sentiment takes a hit with rising trade tensions following Trump’s tariff increase. •  EUR/USD declines around 1.1420 after recording more than 0.50% on the last session, pummeled by a rebounding US Dollar. •  US Dollar bounces on technical correction even as weaker-than-anticipated ISM Manufacturing PMI data drops to 48.5 in May. •  European Central Bank’s next interest rate move could be influenced by eurozone HICP inflation data. •  Trade tensions escalate as Donald Trump lays out a plan to double US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, putting pressure on global markets. •   European Union reacts forcefully, threatening Trump’s tariff increase can derail current trade talks and trigger retaliatory measures. •  US economic worries continue, as stagflationary signs rise as manufacturing production falls for a third consecutive month. •   Traders await US JOLTS Job Openings report later today for additional information on labor market strength and possible USD effect. The foreign exchange market is paying close attention to events in the Eurozone and the United States as significant economic and political events unfold. Traders are looking to the publication of the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), an important inflation reading that could have implications for European Central Bank policy later on. Meanwhile, the overall market mood is being influenced by the revived trade tensions following former US President Donald Trump’s decision to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which was met with strong criticism from the European Union. The EU has threatened that such a move could dash hopes of pending trade negotiations and prompt retaliatory actions, which casts a cloud of uncertainty over the global economic outlook. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, recent US data keeps highlighting issues in manufacturing. The most recent ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed a third month of slowing down, which indicates stress on the industrial part of the economy. In spite of that, the US Dollar has still been able to recover some lost ground as a result of market positioning and technical considerations. In the near future, focus will be on the US JOLTS Job Openings report, which can offer additional insight into the health of the US labor market and inform expectations for future economic trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is immediately met with resistance around the 1.1450 level, an area that corresponds with recent session highs and could limit further upside if bullish pressure diminishes. To the downside, initial support is at 1.1380, where buyers previously intervened, then even firmer support at the 1.1350 handle, which aligns with the 50-day moving average. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are in the neutral range, predicting a possible consolidation phase unless a clear breakthrough or breakdown happens. Traders will be looking for a sustained breakout above resistance or below strong support to establish the next direction of travel. FORECAST The Euro initially responded well, with EUR/USD increasing more than 0.50% during the last session as investor sentiment improved temporarily. Support from positive momentum came courtesy of expectations regarding the soon-to-be-released Eurozone HICP inflation data that can provide some indication of the European Central Bank’s next policy decision. Moreover, worries of decelerating US economic numbers, such as softer manufacturing data, helped to encourage a more bearish sentiment regarding the US Dollar. These sentiments assisted the Euro to rally during the initial trading session, aided by optimism and positioning within markets. The advances, however, were temporary as the US Dollar recovered owing to a technical reversal, pushing EUR/USD down around the 1.1420 level. The Dollar’s rebound occurred notwithstanding the continued uncertainty over economic softness, such as a third straight monthly drop in US factory output. To add to the bear pressure on the Euro, news of former US President Donald Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on steel and aluminium again fueled trade war fears. Further hammering the sentiment was the European Union’s threat

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Tests Key 1.1250 Resistance: Will Bulls Break Descending Channel?

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  • May 20, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is testing a crucial resistance level around 1.1250, the upper end of its descending channel, with divergent technical indications. Although the general trend is still bearish due to the ongoing channel pattern, short-term momentum has increased as the pair is above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is sustaining marginally above 50. Initial support at 1.1210 and stronger support at 1.1093, where a break through might expose the pair to further losses. On the other hand, a successful break above 1.1250 might change the outlook to bullish, setting the stage for a rally to the April high at 1.1573. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a possible breakout above the resistance of the descending channel. A convincing move higher might change momentum in the bulls’ favor. • A breakdown below this level might indicate dissipating momentum and set off a short-term pullback. • A drop below this region would confirm a bearish continuation and leave the way open toward lower levels at 1.0951 and 1.0840. • The 14-day RSI sitting just above 50 is a principal strength gauge—further upward movement could confirm bullish potential, whereas a slide below might underpin renewed downside pressure. The EUR/USD pair should be watched closely as it challenges the important resistance level of 1.1250, which is the top of its downtrend channel. A breakout above the level may indicate a reversal to the upside, particularly since the pair is trading above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is slightly above 50. Non-breaking may, however, reinforce the current bearish trend, with initial support at 1.1210 and deeper support around 1.1093. A conclusive fall below these levels may open the way for further declines towards 1.0951 and possibly as low as 1.0840 in upcoming sessions. EUR/USD is probing significant resistance at 1.1250, the top of its downtrend channel. A break may mark a bullish reversal, while breakdown can see further downtrend towards support at 1.1210 and 1.1093. •  EUR/USD is probing the upper edge of its falling channel at 1.1250, which is an important resistance point. •  The pair is quoted above the 9-day EMA (1.1210), reflecting short-term positive momentum. •  RSI is still just above 50, reflecting a weak bullish inclination. •  Initial support is at 1.1210, with firmer support at the 50-day EMA around 1.1093. • A fall through 1.1093 could see a further drop towards 1.0951 and the channel’s lower boundary around 1.0840. • Strong buying momentum could take the pair to 1.1573, the April 21 high. • The general trend is still bearish, except in case of a confirmed break above 1.1250. EUR/USD pair remains under the spotlight because it is still a point of concentration in international currency markets. As both the United States and the Eurozone experience important economic events, investors are closely monitoring this significant currency pair for indications of the overall sentiment on the markets. Trends in inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical events are all contributing to the direction of the pair and affecting trading strategies. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are also closely watching economic data from both blocs, such as employment statistics, GDP growth, and central bank statements. These factors not only influence currency valuation but also investor confidence and cross-border capital flows. As the global financial environment continues to develop, the EUR/USD continues to serve as an important gauge of economic equilibrium between the Eurozone and the U.S. economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is now probing a pivotal resistance level of about 1.1250, which is the top line of its downtrend channel. The fact that the pair is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicates some short-term bullishness, and the fact that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 50 mark indicates a neutral but slightly optimistic market tone. Important support levels to monitor are the 9-day EMA at 1.1210 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A break above the channel resistance could be an indication of trend reversal, whereas a failure to sustain present gains can cause renewed pressure on the downside. FORECAST EUR/USD manages to break above the major resistance level at 1.1250, it can mark the beginning of a bull run. This breakout can draw additional buying interest, which could propel the pair to the next resistance level of 1.1350. A strong push above this level can lead to a journey to 1.1573, which was the April high. Favorable Eurozone economic data or a change in market perceptions on U.S. interest rates could also drive higher. Conversely, a failure to penetrate 1.1250 can lead to fresh selling pressure. The first support is located at 1.1210, close to the 9-day EMA, with higher support at the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A strong breach through these levels would speed the decline, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper levels at 1.0951 and possibly towards the lower edge of the descending channel at 1.0840. Poor Eurozone numbers or improved U.S. economic growth might further support the bearish expectations.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strengthens as Soft US Inflation Data and ECB Optimism Weigh on the US Dollar

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  • May 14, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair has seen a notable recovery, strengthening towards 1.1250 as soft US inflation data for April weighs on the US Dollar. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at its slowest pace in over four years, prompting criticism from US President Donald Trump, who renewed calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In spite of these pressures, the market continues to look for the Fed to keep its existing rates throughout the summer. In the meantime, the Euro performs ahead of its group with increasing confidence in its status as a reserve currency and hopes regarding the European Central Bank’s ability to make further rate cuts. The couple’s upbeat momentum is bolstered by both the abating US inflation and rising demand for the Euro in the face of a short-lived trade truce between the US and China. While investors wait for significant economic data, such as US Retail Sales and PPI, the EUR/USD continues in a bullish trajectory, with resistance at 1.1425 and support at 1.0950. KEY LOOKOUTS • The gentle April CPI reading has placed pressure on the US Dollar, and there are demands for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Additional weak inflation readings or comments by Fed Chair Powell would shape market expectations and affect the USD. • ECB officials continue to point towards future rate cuts, particularly as Eurozone inflation is soft. Any message from the ECB regarding upcoming monetary policy has the potential to harden the Euro and push EUR/USD trends. • The temporary respite between the US and China has lowered the risks of trade war, but any news in US-EU trade relations or any new announcements of trade policy will lead to currency pair volatility. • The EUR/USD has bounced back above its 20-day EMA and displays a bullish bias, with the RSI pointing towards upside. Breakout above key resistance levels (1.1425) or inability to hold above support (1.0950) will be decisive in determining the pair’s direction. EUR/USD currency pair has registered robust rebound, supported by weak US inflation reading for April and the rising probability of additional interest rate reductions by the European Central Bank (ECB). With the weakening of the US Dollar after the release of the lowest CPI growth in more than four years, President Trump’s attack on the Federal Reserve for failing to reduce rates puts extra pressure on the greenback. In the meantime, the Euro is helped by both its increasing status as a reserve currency and the dovish policy of the ECB, with policymakers signaling another rate reduction before summer ends. Geopolitics, including the US-China trade truce, remain a factor in influencing the market, while technical analysis indicates a bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair, with key resistance at 1.1425 and support at 1.0950. As the traders wait for important economic releases, such as US Retail Sales and PPI data, sentiment in the market will remain precarious, determining the future course of the currency pair. The EUR/USD currency pair gains strength as weak US inflation figures weigh down the US Dollar, with prospects of additional rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Technical charts are bearish, with a resistance level of 1.1425 and support level of 1.0950, with market players waiting for major US economic releases as well as geopolitical events. • April’s CPI figures reported the lowest inflation in more than four years, damping the US Dollar and stoking hopes for possible rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. • President Trump once again urged the Fed to cut interest rates, invoking weakening inflation and economic conditions that in his view require easier money policy. • European Central Bank officials such as Francois Villeroy de Galhau have signaled the potential for another rate cut prior to the summer, which would further prop up the Euro. • The Euro has beaten most of its major peers, fueled by growing confidence in its status as a reserve currency and dovish ECB policy. • A temporary trade ceasefire between the US and China has eased fears of a full-blown trade war, supporting some market sentiment. • The EUR/USD currency pair has rebounded above its 20-day EMA and is displaying bullish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating further potential upside. • The market is waiting for crucial US numbers, such as Retail Sales and PPI, which might have an impact on the expectations of future policy from the Fed and on the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD pair has been picking up momentum after the release of weak US inflation numbers for April, and this has weakened the US Dollar. The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by only 2.3%, its weakest rate in more than four years, leading US President Trump to again urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. With inflation indications of weakening, market participants are now turning to the chances of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, although traders are still mostly anticipating the Fed to hold interest rates all the way to the summer. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Euro, meanwhile, has been taking advantage of its growing status as a reserve currency and the European Central Bank’s persistent dovish bias. ECB policymakers have suggested that they can make another interest rate cut before summer is out, which has bolstered the Euro against other currencies. At the same time, geopolitical events such as the recent US-China trade truce have relaxed global trade tensions, adding to bullish sentiment for the Euro. With growing optimism over the economic strength of the Eurozone, market players are looking to key economic data releases over the next few days for more signals on the EUR/USD pair’s direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD pair has experienced a robust comeback, recently crossing its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of approximately 1.1220, indicating a trend reversal towards a bullish move. The duo’s bullish momentum is backed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has recovered from a reading of 40, suggesting that buying pressure is increasing. Important

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Testing Key Support Levels Amid Bullish Momentum

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  • May 7, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is now testing key support levels near 1.1320, with short-term bullish momentum boosted by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying above the 50 level. Unless recent retracements reverse the trend, the pair is still biased higher in an ascending channel pattern and could return to the April 21 high of 1.1573, which was its strongest level since November 2021. However, a breakdown below key support areas could reorient the trend into bearish grounds with additional risks for further losses extending towards the 50-day EMA at 1.1057 and a possible six-week low at 1.0360. KEY LOOKOUTS •  EUR/USD is probing important support at the vicinity of the nine-day EMA at 1.1320. A penetration below this might change the bias to a more bearish bias, paving the way for more downside. •  The 14-day RSI is still above the 50 level, supporting the ongoing bullish bias. Monitor any noteworthy changes in RSI behavior as an indication of possible trend reversals. • The duo can test the April 21 high of 1.1573, its highest since November 2021. Breaking above this level successfully may trigger more bullish action, with the next resistance around 1.1730. •  If the 1.1320 support gives way, the EUR/USD may extend its fall, with significant downside targets at the 50-day EMA (1.1057) and the six-week low of 1.0360. Watch out for these levels to spot possible trend reversals. EUR/USD pair stands at a pivotal resistance, testing significant support around 1.1320, which is bolstered by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). As long as the 14-day RSI stays above 50, indicating continued bullish pressure, a fall below this support would change the outlook to the downside, with possible targets at the 50-day EMA of 1.1057 and the six-week low of 1.0360. To the upside, the pair is targeting the April 21 high of 1.1573, a level not reached since November 2021, with additional resistance around 1.1730. Since the pair is oscillating within an upward channel, investors should monitor any changes in these major levels to determine the direction to expect next. EUR/USD is probing important support at 1.1320, and bullish momentum is shown by the RSI being above 50. If broken, this could see a decline to 1.1057, or the upside move to the April 21 high of 1.1573. Traders should be keenly aware of these levels for possible trend reversals. • EUR/USD is probing major support at the nine-day EMA at 1.1320, with a possible bearish reversal if this level is penetrated. • The 14-day RSI continues to stay above 50, reflecting positive momentum and supporting the short-term bullish bias. • The April 21 high at 1.1573 is a pivotal resistance level, possibly indicating further appreciation if penetrated. • EUR/USD is in an upward channel, indicating sustained bullishness unless there is a breakdown below support. • A breakdown below 1.1320 may find the pair challenging the 50-day EMA of 1.1057, a key level for medium-term trends. • A further drop may take the pair to the six-week low of 1.0360, which was last hit on February 28. • Traders need to watch closely key support and resistance levels to measure possible trend reversals or continuation. EUR/USD pair is now at a pivotal point as it consolidates around key levels, with a dominant bullish sentiment affecting its short-term direction. Such momentum is driven by optimistic market expectations, and even with recent retracements, the general trend appears to continue upward. With the duo moving through this stage, its ability to continue along the current path is being watched closely by traders and analysts, particularly as it hangs around key levels that may determine its next move. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the overall picture, the EUR/USD is set in a manner that indicates possible future prospects for additional increases, particularly with historical highs looming. Market sentiment is positive, bolstered by the pair’s overall upward trend and the expectation of positive market events. Investors will probably maintain a close watch over global economic reports and political events, which might affect the direction of the EUR/USD and strengthen or undermine its current trajectory. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD pair is testing key support near the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1320, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still above 50, showing ongoing bullish momentum. The pair is in an ascending channel, reflecting the likelihood of continuing higher if supported above this level. The major resistance is at April 21 high of 1.1573, with additional upside to 1.1730. A breakdown below the present support levels may result in a change of sentiment, which may propel the pair towards the 50-day EMA at 1.1057, with additional downside risks stretching to the six-week low of 1.0360. FORECAST EUR/USD pair can potentially maintain its bullish trend, particularly if it remains above the critical support at 1.1320. If the pair is able to hold within its uptrending channel, it may revisit the April 21 high of 1.1573, the highest level since November 2021. A successful breakout above this would propel the uptrend further, with the next resistance target at 1.1730. Based on current market sentiment and technical indicators, there is hope for the pair to test the higher levels in the near future. Conversely, a decline below the key support area of about 1.1320 would represent a change in market sentiment, paving the way for further bearish action. Below this level, the pair might test the 50-day EMA at 1.1057, which is likely to provide strong support. A further drop would be towards the six-week low of 1.0360, last recorded in February. This would signal a faltering of the medium-term bullish trend, and the traders would keep a close eye on these lower levels for stabilization or additional pressure to the downside.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forecast: Bullish Trend Goes On with 1.1400 as the Next Important Target

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  • April 28, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair continues to be bullish as it holds firm near 1.1360 in the Asian session amid a strong technical position. The pair is comfortably above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating sustained bullish momentum. The immediate overhead is at 1.1400, with scope for further upside towards 1.1547 and 1.1647. On the negative side, there is support at 1.1315, and a continued break below this may unlock the way for a pullback to 1.1000 or even 1.0888. With mixed signals on US-China trade relations, nonetheless, the bullish outlook for EUR/USD continues to hold in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The immediate upside target for EUR/USD is at the psychological level of 1.1400. A break above this level could set the stage for further rallies to 1.1547 and 1.1647. • The initial strong support to watch is 1.1315, the April 24 low. A strong and persistent move below this could indicate a possible fall to lower degrees, e.g., 1.1000. • EUR/USD continues to be supported by a solid bullish sentiment, with the currency trading above the important 100-day EMA and an RSI of 61.80, which shows sustained bullish momentum. • Uncertainty from mixed signals provided by the US and China regarding trade talks might engender volatility for the pair, and hence close attention needs to be paid to fresh information that can influence market sentiment. EUR/USD remains on a bullish outlook, with the pair maintaining ground around 1.1360, underpinned by a strong technical platform. The nearby resistance is located at 1.1400, and breaching this barrier may trigger the price to proceed higher towards 1.1547 and then 1.1647. On the down side, a first support in view is located at 1.1315, and its breach may alert for a downtrend towards 1.1000. The pair’s bullish bias is supported by the 100-day EMA and a positive RSI, which reflects continuous upward momentum. Nevertheless, market volatility may rise due to continued uncertainty over US-China trade relations, and it is therefore important to be vigilant for any news update that could shape market sentiment. EUR/USD has a positive outlook with support at 1.1315 and resistance at 1.1400. The bull run of the pair is complemented by a high RSI and the support of the 100-day EMA, despite possible volatility driven by US-China trade uncertainties. • EUR/USD has a positive bias and is favored by a sound technical setup. • Short-term target of the upside move is 1.1400, with extended potential to rise towards 1.1547 and 1.1647. • The initial crucial support level to monitor is 1.1315, and a probable decline to 1.1000 in the event of breaking this level. • The pair trades above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating ongoing bullish momentum. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the midline at about 61.80 indicates continuing bullish momentum. • Ambiguity regarding US-China trade relations has the potential to cause market instability, affecting the price action of EUR/USD. • In case the bullish momentum keeps going, subsequent major resistance points are 1.1547 (April 22 high) and 1.1647 (upper Bollinger Band). EUR/USD is depicting strong bullishness as the market continues to perceive the outlook to be positive. The pair has the support of positive market sentiment,partly triggered by a fairly stable economic atmosphere in the Eurozone. Even as the currency pair has been strong, there exists some uncertainty surrounding the global economic situation, which is mainly being caused by confusing signals emanating from the US-China trade war. The trade tensions can make for some episodes of volatility but generally, there is a good sentiment for the euro against the dollar. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView The persistent euro strength also has something to do with an absence of a major disruption of the Eurozone economy, where economic figures provide a stable background for the currency. At the same time, the US dollar is also facing some difficulty as the unpredictable nature of trade relations between China and the US clouds future prospects. As investors continue to observe these developments, the EUR/USD pair is set to stay in its existing bullish trend, although outside circumstances may cause short-term fluctuations. The general trend for EUR/USD is upward, and the market appears to be inclined towards the euro in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is displaying a robust bullish inclination, bolstered by being above the significant 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming the upward motion to continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in positive ground and at 61.80, indicating buying pressure remains in place and the pair would be able to sustain its upward trend in the near term. The near-term resistance is at 1.1400, and if this level is breached, additional gains to 1.1547 and 1.1647 would be anticipated. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.1315, and a fall below this might indicate a reversal. Generally, the technical indicators are to the advantage of the euro, with robust support and bullish momentum driving the pair’s direction. FORECAST EUR/USD remains firmly in bullish sentiments, with the initial key resistance level at 1.1400. The breaking of this level may make way for increased gains, the next targets to the upside at 1.1547, April 22 high, and 1.1647, the top limit of the Bollinger Band. If there is sustained bearish momentum, these levels can serve as decisive markers, informing the market that the pair is likely to sustain its rising pattern in the ensuing sessions. To the downside, initial support for EUR/USD stands at 1.1315, which is the April 24 low. A prolonged slide below here would indicate a possible pullback towards the next support at 1.1000. Should selling pressure continue, the pair would be subject to further losses, with 1.0888, the April 8 low, standing out as a major target. Still, the pair is supported above these levels at present, containing the bearish scenario.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Under Pressure Amid US Dollar Rebound and Poor Eurozone Economic Figures

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  • April 23, 2025
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EUR/USD recently saw a pullback, temporarily falling below 1.1400 as the US Dollar rallied, driven by President Trump’s remarks on the independence of the Federal Reserve and his hopes for hitting a trade agreement with China. This followed a period of volatility on concerns over tariffs and the Fed’s interest rate plans. At the same time, the Euro came under pressure from soft Eurozone economic indicators, with the April PMI showing weak growth, especially in the services sector. With market players expecting possible ECB rate reductions, the short-term direction of the EUR/USD pair is unclear, as the US Dollar is already displaying signs of regaining its safe-haven appeal. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar has picked up steam after President Trump’s assurances regarding the independence of the Fed and his positive sentiments on US-China trade negotiations. Market players will be looking for updates in these fronts to assess the sustainability of the Dollar’s recovery. • Poor PMI readings in the Eurozone, specifically a decline in the services sector, indicate the struggles of the region’s economic growth. Investors will watch closely for future economic statistics to determine if this trend persists. • Increasing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) might make further interest rate cuts in June could negatively impact the Euro. Words from ECB officials, especially President Christine Lagarde, will be crucial to determining the central bank’s future action. • The EUR/USD pair is resisted at the important 1.1600 level, and 1.1276 is a pivotal support area. Traders need to monitor these levels for possible price action that might determine the next direction for the pair. EUR/USD has come under downward pressure lately, falling below 1.1400 as the US Dollar gained strength after President Trump’s words of comfort to the market regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence and his optimistic view on US-China trade negotiations. The Euro has fared poorly, burdened by soft Eurozone PMI readings, especially a decline in the services sector, which indicated slowing economic growth in the region. Also, rising hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates further in June have contributed to the weakness of the Euro. While the market weighs these factors, EUR/USD is in a precarious balance, with important resistance at 1.1600 and support at 1.1276. EUR/USD recently broke below 1.1400, as the US Dollar appreciated following President Trump’s remarks about the Fed and US-China trade negotiations. However, soft Eurozone PMI data and anticipations of future ECB rate reductions are weakening the Euro, making the currency pair remain in cautious territory. • EUR/USD fell as the US Dollar rallied, driven by President Trump’s assurance regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and positive trade discussion news with China. • The April PMI data from the Eurozone showed poor economic growth, with a decline in the service sector, putting pressure on the Euro. •  Trump showed optimism that the US and China would come to a trade agreement, mitigating some of the tariff-related uncertainty that had previously weighed on the market. • Trump also signaled frustration with the Fed’s decision not to lower interest rates, injecting volatility into the market’s view of US monetary policy. • Heightened expectations that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates again in June are putting pressure on the Euro. • EUR/USD is resisted at the 1.1600 level, with support at the July 2023 high of 1.1276. • Investors are hesitant as they wait for additional economic data from both the US and Eurozone to determine the trend of the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD pair has recently seen a change in momentum, mainly as a result of events in the US economy and trade negotiations. President Trump’s words of support for the Federal Reserve’s independence and optimism regarding a possible trade agreement with China have given the US Dollar a boost. His assurances have eased market fears over the Fed’s policies, specifically concerns that he would attempt to oust Chairman Jerome Powell. This has given the US Dollar an added attractiveness as investors regained confidence in its stability. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, the Eurozone is suffering from economic issues, with low PMI numbers indicating that the region’s growth is decelerating, especially in the services sector. The possibility of additional rate cuts by the European Central Bank has also contributed to doubts regarding the strength of the Euro. With low inflation expectations and economic activity in the doldrums, the Euro is facing pressure as investors expect further policy measures by the ECB. These factors have placed the EUR/USD pair in a precarious balance, with the US Dollar picking up steam and the Euro struggling to keep its footing amidst regional economic strife. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has run into resistance at the 1.1600 level, which has halted its recent upward movement. The pair dipped briefly below 1.1400, signaling a correction after touching a three-year high of 1.1575. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has spiked above the 70.00 mark, indicating strong bullish pressure but also hinting at potential correction in the near future. Support for the pair is at the July 2023 high of 1.1276, and a strong dip below this point may indicate further downward potential. While the pair remains in this vicinity, the key levels will be eyed by traders for probable breakout or reversal trades. FORECAST If the US Dollar continues to exhibit strength, especially in view of additional favorable news in trade talks or optimism regarding the policies of the Fed, EUR/USD may remain under pressure. But if the Eurozone can stabilize its economic situation and the ECB does not make additional drastic rate cuts, there is some hope for the pair to turn around. A breach above the 1.1600 resistance would be an indication of a change in direction, with further increases to higher levels possible. A boost in stronger economic numbers or fiscal stimulus plans in the Eurozone could also support the Euro to some extent, aiding its recovery. EUR/USD stands at risk of further declines in case the

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls as ECB Reduces Rates in Face of Global Trade News and Market Volatility

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  • April 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair experienced fresh selling pressure, declining back to 1.1340 following the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to make a widely expected 25 basis point cut in rates — its sixth successive reduction — as part of its ongoing campaign to nudge inflation back towards the 2% goal in the face of a weakening Eurozone economy. The ECB’s move, along with its deletion of previous language indicating interest rates are still restrictive, hints at a possible end to the easing cycle. In the meantime, optimism about U.S.-Japan trade talks gave the U.S. Dollar a boost, while doubts over U.S.-China trade ties and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish economic outlook kept global markets on edge. In spite of the near-term retreat, EUR/USD still has a bullish technical setup, with the next significant resistance seen at 1.1500. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank cut its key lending rates by 25 basis points but importantly avoided saying that rates will continue to be “restrictive” — suggesting that it might be ready to end its easing cycle as inflation trends improve. • Encouraging developments in trade talks between Japan and the U.S., which were highlighted by President Trump, relieved the U.S. Dollar and dampened EUR/USD recovery efforts. • Investors are looking forward to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for greater insights into the central bank’s future policy direction, particularly how the continued global trade tensions affect it. •  As EUR/USD dipped below 1.1340, technical metrics such as the 14-day RSI holding above 70 and more sloping EMAs indicate the pair’s wider bullish trend is intact. The EUR/USD pair fell under renewed selling pressure, moving towards 1.1340 after the European Central Bank (ECB) declared a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, its sixth in a row since the beginning of its easing cycle. The ECB’s decision reflects its ongoing efforts to tame inflation and support a slowing Eurozone economy, though the omission of any reference to rates remaining “restrictive” suggests policymakers may be eyeing a temporary pause. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar regained strength on the back of positive progress in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, offering some relief to global markets amid persistent uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Even with the ongoing correction, the EUR/USD pair still has a generally bullish outlook, with investors waiting anxiously for further guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde’s next comments. EUR/USD continued to decline towards 1.1340 after the ECB trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points, as anticipated, indicating a possible end to its easing cycle. The U.S. Dollar strengthened amid positive U.S.-Japan trade news, further putting pressure on the pair. Investors now look to ECB President Lagarde’s remarks for new policy guidance. •  The European Central Bank cut its main borrowing costs as expected, its sixth consecutive reduction in response to softening Eurozone growth and cooling inflation. •  The EUR/USD currency pair fell towards 1.1340 following the rate decision, with strong selling pressure during early North American trading hours. •  For the first time in months, the ECB left out the word indicating interest rates are “restrictive,” which may indicate a possible halt to its rate-cutting cycle. •  Encouraging news from U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, led by President Trump’s announcement of “big progress,” brought relief to the U.S. Dollar. •   Markets are looking to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for insight into future policy direction, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainty. •  In spite of the recent decline, the EUR/USD currency pair maintains a bullish setup with the support of higher sloping EMAs and the RSI remaining above the 70 level. •  Continued uncertainty regarding U.S.-China trade tensions continues to overshadow market sentiment, keeping traders defensive in the short term. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced yet another 25 basis point cut in interest rates, its sixth consecutive rate reduction since initiating its monetary easing cycle in June. The move is an extension of the ECB’s continued bid to stabilize the Eurozone economy as inflation makes slow progress towards its 2% target. Notably, the central bank did not reproduce its standard line that interest rates would continue to be “restrictive,” implying policymakers may be weighing a pause in additional reductions. The ECB reiterated that future policy will be “data-dependent” and influenced by the current global economic situation, specifically the uncertainty of international trade patterns. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, international market focus has turned to developments in negotiations of trade talks between the United States and Japan. Favorable comments from both parties indicate better ties, providing a breath of relief for international markets that have been under pressure from tariff tensions. As the U.S.-Japan talks are progressing, however, general anxiety over the U.S.-China trade war remains, causing businesses and investors to remain guarded. As policymakers around the world adjust to these rapidly changing circumstances, market players are monitoring closely for any indication of how governments and central banks will act to protect economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD currency pair is undergoing a good correction after unable to maintain its momentum above the 1.1400 mark. Even after the correction, the overall trend is bullish since the price continues to trade above the major short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating underlying strength. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to remain above the 70 level, indicating that bullish momentum remains in place, though marginally overheated in the near term. Traders are currently monitoring the psychological resistance level of 1.1500, which is still a critical upside target, while the April 11 low around 1.1190 acts as a robust support level, likely to be bought if the correction worsens. FORECAST EUR/USD continues to be bullish provided the pair remains above critical technical support levels. The steepening slope of the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above the 70 level indicate solid underlying buying demand. If the pair picks up momentum, the first target would be the psychological resistance at 1.1400, and a clear break above this level could

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Put Around 1.1350 as Market Prepares for ECB Interest Rate Decision and Fed Inflation War

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  • April 15, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair stays put around the 1.1350 level as the US Dollar tries to regain stability as stagflation fears increase and as market sentiment turns defensive. Market participants are watching remarks from Federal Reserve officials, such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who noted the long way that will have to go to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target — a sign that rate decreases will not come as early as some had anticipated. In the meantime, everyone is focused on the next policy meeting of the European Central Bank, when a widely anticipated 25 basis point reduction in interest rates might determine the Euro’s short-term direction. Uncertainty over global trade tensions and changing projections by major financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank also contribute to the confusion, leaving market participants vigilant for any hints about the future course of monetary policy on both the Atlantic and other sides. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, and they are looking for forward guidance on the future of monetary easing. • Federal Reserve officials, particularly Raphael Bostic, indicate that rate cuts might take a bit longer as the US central bank stays loyal to its 2% inflation target. • Market participants look for the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for information on credit conditions, which may have implications for both the rate decision and the ECB’s economic outlook. • Increased trade uncertainty and possible US tariff changes remain weighing on market sentiment, providing near-term support for the Euro with recession fears in the US. With the EUR/USD pair trading around the 1.1350 mark, market attention turns to a number of key drivers that may decide its next direction. The European Central Bank is to make its highly anticipated policy rate decision on Thursday, with traders broadly factoring in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, while also looking for any guidance on future easing cycles. Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve’s measured approach to inflation — in the wake of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments — indicates that the journey towards U.S. rate cuts could be slower than anticipated. The publication of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey will also provide new clues on the state of credit in the Eurozone. At the same time, persistent global trade tensions and doubts over possible U.S. tariff shifts remain to influence investor mood, offering risk and support to the Euro in the short term. The EUR/USD pair remains anchored around 1.1350 as markets look for the ECB’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut and more hints on monetary policy. The US Dollar, meanwhile, looks to stabilize as Fed officials remain cautious about inflation and ongoing global trade tensions. Investors look for major data and central bank comments to determine the next move. •  EUR/USD hovers around 1.1350 as the pair remains range-bound with risky market sentiment. •  The US Dollar tries to firm up as stagflation fears reemerge and dampen global risk appetite. •  Federal Reserve’s Bostic indicates a long way to go before reaching the 2% inflation goal, dashing hopes for imminent rate cuts. •  ECB to cut the rate by 25 basis points at its policy meet on Thursday, keeping the Euro in limelight. •  Deutsche Bank revises rate cut prediction for Fed, anticipating first cut in Dec 2025, two additional cuts in early 2026. •  The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS) is under the spotlight for information regarding credit conditions and the health of the Eurozone economy. • Global trade tensions and recessionary concerns continue to underpin the Euro and place pressure on the US Dollar’s rebound. The EUR/USD currency pair remains firm as market participants look towards this week’s key central bank news and economic releases. The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting, a move designed to underpin growth throughout the Eurozone. Meanwhile, market players are monitoring the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey, which will offer useful insight into how credit conditions are influencing the region’s overall financial well-being. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar is holding its ground as traders digest recent comments from Federal Reserve officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s statement underlined that the path to bringing inflation back to the 2% target remains challenging, hinting that US rate cuts may not arrive as soon as previously expected. In addition to central bank indications, persistent global trade tensions and policy uncertainty are also exercising considerable influence over investor sentiment, with markets pricing in possible risks to the global economy in the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1350 level, hinting at consolidation as the pair awaits strong directional signals. The latest price action suggests indecision surrounding major levels of resistance and support, pointing to the fact that traders wait for new sparks from central bank policies or fresh economic data to push through resolute moves. A continued penetration of near-term resistance may be enough to establish further room on the upside, but a inability to maintain present support levels would risk exposing the pair to greater bear pressure short-term. FORECAST If the European Central Bank’s forthcoming policy announcement and economic commentary succeed in finding an even keel — loosening but remaining upbeat on the recovery of the Eurozone — then the EUR/USD pair might strengthen in the near term. Surprise improvements in Eurozone economic statistics or hints at weakening US inflation might similarly prop up the Euro, sending the pair higher to resistance levels as risk appetite is regained by investors. On the flip side, if the rate cut by the ECB is coupled with a more dovish tone or the US Dollar gains new strength on the back of improved economic indicators or diminishing recession fears, EUR/USD could see fresh selling pressures. Also, ongoing global trade tensions and any rise in geopolitical tensions would tempt investors to take refuge in the

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Breaks Above 1.1100 as Softer US CPI and Tariff Halt Fuel Euro Strength

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  • April 10, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair broke above 1.1100 after a softer-than-projected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for March and a temporary tariff retreat by President Donald Trump. The euro’s rally intensified in the face of market euphoria over a 90-day suspension of tit-for-tat tariffs, which initially boosted the U.S. dollar but soon gave way to fresh euro strength. Weaker inflation data, with both headline and core readings falling short of expectations, spurred hopes of imminent Fed rate cuts, even though the CME FedWatch tool indicated lower probabilities for a May cut. With volatility continuing to trend higher, EUR/USD continues to move higher, setting its sights on the 1.1200 resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD is close to the significant resistance zone at 1.1200 that topped rallies in August and September 2024. Breaking above this level would indicate a more bullish continuation. •  On the negative side, the uptrend line around 1.0910 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0735 are crucial supports to look out for on a pullback. •  Market sentiment will likely change following remarks from top Fed officials today, including Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, and Patrick Harker. •  With the odds of a May rate cut declining to 19.5%, there remains a 75.3% chance of a cut in June that keeps rate policy on everyone’s mind and driving EUR/USD direction. The trader must watch closely the 1.1200 resistance level that capped previous EUR/USD rallies and now represents a critical breakout point. To the negative, the uptrend line at 1.0910 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.0735 serve as significant support levels that may cushion a pullback. Market players will also be listening to a string of speeches from various Federal Reserve officials, which may provide new clues to forthcoming monetary policy action. Furthermore, although the chances of a May rate cut have receded, a 75.3% chance of easing in June still dominates investor sentiment and may generate more volatility in the pair. Important resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.1200, while powerful support is at 1.0910 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0735. Speeches by Fed officials and changing rate cut expectations—now in favor of June—are still vital determinants of the pair’s next step. • EUR/USD breaks above 1.1100 following softer-than-anticipated U.S. CPI data. • March CPI reported monthly headline inflation fell by 0.1%, lower than expectations. • Core inflation also slowed down, supporting hopes of a Fed rate cut within the next few months. • 90-day tariff hiatus by President Trump initially supported the dollar but reversed swiftly. • Resistance is at 1.1200, with interim resistance at 1.1146. • The major supports are 1.0910 (trend line) and 1.0735 (200-day SMA). • Fed speakers and June rate cut probabilities (75.3%) will continue to be the key drivers in terms of near-term direction. The EUR/USD currency pair shot above the 1.1100 level following the softer-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which fuelled hopes of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. Both headline and underlying inflation numbers fell short of expectations, with monthly headline inflation even registering a decline of 0.1%. This surprise softness in inflation numbers propelled the euro against the dollar, as investors reevaluated the timing for possible interest rate reductions. Following on the heels of momentum was President Donald Trump’s revelation of a 90-day hiatus on mutual tariffs, which initially buoyed the U.S. dollar before sentiment turned in the euro’s favor. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView EUR/USD pair is displaying significant bullish momentum as it retakes key psychological levels. Resistance currently stands at 1.1146 and the key hurdle at 1.1200, which sat on top of earlier rallies during 2024. Support in the downside stands at the upward trend line close to 1.0910 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.0735. Market participants will be listening carefully today to several comments from Federal Reserve officials, along with forthcoming economic statistics, as they look for guidance on whether there will be a rate reduction in June—a prospect currently at 75.3% pricing. All this will probably leave EUR/USD jumpy short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is showing intense buying pressure, recovering the vital 1.1000 point and heading toward the resistance zone at 1.1146, the latest year-to-date high. A persistent breach above this level may create the possibility for a challenge of the pivotal 1.1200 resistance band, which already topped gains in late 2024. Support on the downside comes initially at the rising trend line at around 1.0910, then the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0735. If bearish pressure becomes more pronounced, further support comes in at the 1.0667 pivot and the 55-day SMA of 1.0645, which makes these levels important to sustain the existing bullish structure. FORECAST If the bullish momentum is sustained, EUR/USD is set to continue its rally in the near term. A definitive breakout above the 1.1146 resistance would set the stage for the psychologically important 1.1200 level, which served as a robust ceiling during August and September 2024. A strong close above 1.1200 is likely to stimulate additional buying pressure, potentially all the way up to 1.1270 and even 1.1350 in the medium term. Confirmation from softer U.S. inflation data and increasing market conviction in a June Federal Reserve rate cut may continue to boost the euro’s strength versus the dollar. Conversely, if the rally falters or hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials erode rate cut hopes, EUR/USD may see renewed selling pressure. A fall below the short-term support at 1.0910, indicated by the rising trend line, would represent diminishing bullish pressure. This may induce a deeper decline towards the 200-day SMA at 1.0735. In case bearish momentum strengthens, further intraday targets are the 1.0667 pivot and the 55-day SMA at 1.0645, where the buyers may try to reverse the pair.

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