Forex Trading Tools and Services

Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.0950 as Fed Decision Approaches Amid Strength in Dollar and Eurozone Trends

  • BY
  • March 19, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The EUR/USD crossed below the level of 1.0950 during Wednesday morning’s Asian trading, staying at around 1.0935 as market participants take a guarded approach ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate determination. The U.S. Dollar received mild lift from more solid industrial production, contributing to traders’ expectation amid the Fed’s revised rate guidance and economic report. Although the central bank is expected to leave interest rates on hold, the press conference and dot-plot that accompany it could provide key policy guidance. Separately, a large spending budget passed by Germany’s parliament could support the Euro, indicating increased investment activity in the Eurozone’s largest economy. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch for the Fed’s rate move and economic forecasts, which will determine the tone of USD movement going forward. • Robust US industrial production figures support the Dollar; additional strength could put pressure on EUR/USD below significant support levels. • Bundestag approval of a significant spending increase could underpin the Euro and restore investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. • Traders are cautious ahead of Fed commentary; increased volatility anticipated after the decision, affecting short-term EUR/USD direction. As the EUR/USD currency pair declines below 1.0950 in anticipation of the highly expected Federal Reserve interest rate decision, market players are keenly observing major events that may influence the near-term direction. The US Dollar has strengthened after positive industrial production figures, increasing hopes for a more aggressive Fed policy. Investors will closely monitor the Fed’s revised economic forecasts and the dot-plot, which may provide key information on the rate path ahead. In the meantime, Germany’s approval of a huge spending budget brings a possible Euro boost, signaling fresh fiscal support for the Eurozone’s biggest economy. Overall, sentiment is still wary, with volatility set to spike after the Fed announcement. EUR/USD falls below 1.0950 as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to make its interest rate decision and revise its economic forecasts. The stronger US Dollar and Germany’s recently approved budget plan are significant drivers of the pair’s movement. Volatility is likely to increase after the Fed announcement. • EUR/USD falls to about 1.0935 during Wednesday’s Asian session, falling below the 1.0950 mark. • Investors stay on guard in anticipation of the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement and economic forecasts later today. • The Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot-plot and press conference can give hints of future policy directions. • US Dollar appreciates slight strength as underpinned by better-than-expected US industrial production data for February (+0.7% MoM). • Germany’s parliament sanctioned a big spending spree, a sign of possible economic recovery in the Eurozone’s biggest economy. • Market sentiment remains divided, with investors in wait-and-watch mode following the Fed announcement. • Greater volatility anticipated in EUR/USD in the wake of the Fed verdict and reports on inflation projections. The foreign exchange market is in wait-and-watch mode with international investors awaiting the coming interest rate verdict of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Though the central bank is mostly expected to leave interest rates as they are, everyone is looking forward to the press conference and new economic projections for clues on the course of future monetary policy. The latest release of robust industrial production numbers in the U.S. has contributed to the expectation, signaling strength in the economy and adding to further interest in the central bank’s inflation and growth outlook. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, European developments have ushered in a tide of optimism, as Germany’s parliament passed a big-ticket spending plan designed to spur investment. The action is likely to underpin economic recovery efforts in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and potentially bolster market confidence in the region’s growth prospects. With traders waiting on the sidelines for key policy signals, the overall market tone is set by the interplay between U.S. economic vigor and Europe’s revived fiscal efforts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is picking up signs of mild weakness following its fall below the 1.0950 level, reflecting cautious market sentiment pre-Fed decision. The pair is now trading close to 1.0935, with near-term support at the 1.0900 psychological level. A break through this region may pave the way for further bear pressure. On the higher side, resistance is expected to be encountered in the 1.0975–1.1000 area, where sellers are likely to re-enter. Overall, the price action indicates a consolidation period, with investors waiting for a clear direction of breakout after major economic indicators from the U.S. Federal Reserve. FORECAST If the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its policy statement and economic forecasts neutral or dovish, it may cap further gains in the U.S. Dollar. In this context, the Euro could find footing, particularly with Germany’s freshly approved budget plan set to fuel economic sentiment in the Eurozone. Better fiscal prospects in Europe could provide a supportive environment for the EUR/USD pair to move higher if global risk appetite also improves. Conversely, if the Fed hints at a more aggressive policy—i.e., the likelihood of rate hikes or a less aggressive sequence of easing—then the U.S. Dollar will likely pick up even more steam. This will potentially put downward pressure on the Euro, sending EUR/USD lower over the short run. Also, if future Eurozone data does not indicate a robust recovery in spite of Germany’s budget stimulus, market faith in the Euro will further deteriorate, exacerbating the downside risk.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Firm in Face of German Debt Reforms and ECB Rate Decision: Market Analysis and Key Drivers

  • BY
  • March 6, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD stays firm at the 1.0800 level as investors await the highly expected interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% on the cards. Market mood is influenced by Germany’s mooted 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which may affect inflation and economic growth. In the meantime, US President Trump’s temporary easing of car tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated fears of a trade war, with the result that the US Dollar has weakened. Soft US private jobs data have also raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June. Now, investors wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks and future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases to guide the markets further. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank is likely to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, impacting EUR/USD price action and investor sentiment. • Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and extended borrowing capacity may affect inflation expectations and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reduced trade tensions, but possible tariffs on German cars continue to be a major risk. • Soft US private hiring data have fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Fed, which makes the release of Friday’s NFP a highly market-moving event. EUR/USD continues to be a hot topic for traders as significant economic and policy events are played out. The ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% has the potential to influence future monetary policy, while Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In addition, President Trump of the US has temporarily softened auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which has softened trade tensions but leaves uncertainty over possible tariffs on German automobiles. Furthermore, disappointing US private employment data have also spurred hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and thus, coming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release will be a pivotal driver in establishing the direction of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0800 as the market looks to the ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate reduction and Christine Lagarde’s comments. Germany’s infrastructure fund and US trade policy contribute to the uncertainty, while soft US jobs data drives speculation of a June Fed rate cut. • The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, influencing EUR/USD action. • A planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and eased borrowing ceilings could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico softens trade tensions, but there is still uncertainty regarding possible tariffs on German cars. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day in a row, trading around 104.00, its lowest since four months ago. • Soft private sector employment growth has increased hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate reduction, impacting USD strength. • The pair is still robust above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI > 60, which means bullish momentum. • Market participants are monitoring the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report closely for more cues on the direction of Fed monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair remains steady as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid Germany’s proposed 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which aims to boost economic growth and could influence inflation in the Eurozone. Traders are eagerly waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision remarks for signals about future policy guidance and the overall economic landscape. Meanwhile, market sentiments are still under pressure due to fears of possible US tariffs on European products, especially German cars. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade actions and economic indicators continue to be major drivers of the forex market. US President Donald Trump’s temporary easing of automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated trade tensions, but uncertainty persists with possible tariffs on European goods. Separately, soft US private jobs data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Investors now await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for additional insight into the health of the US labor market. Any meaningful changes in economic statistics or monetary policy decisions made by the Fed or ECB can influence currency trends in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is well placed around the 1.0800 mark, demonstrating bullish sentiment on the charts. The pair has convincingly broken above the December 6 high of 1.0630, further strengthening an uptrend. It is still trading in excess of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0640, marking long-term robustness. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, a sign of extended buying pressure. On the down side, January 27’s high of 1.0533 is the critical support area, and the subsequent resistance point for Euro bulls is the November 6 high of 1.0937. In general, the technical perspective remains bullish for additional gains unless substantial bearish drivers arise. FORECAST EUR/USD might enjoy additional strength if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a prudent stance even with the anticipated rate reduction. If ECB President Christine Lagarde provides cues of a diminished rate-cut pace in the future or hints at optimism regarding Eurozone economic rebound, the Euro can pick up momentum. Also, Germany’s planned infrastructure fund would help boost investor sentiment about the region’s growth prospects. A softer US Dollar, based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, might also sustain EUR/USD’s rally. In case the pair convincingly crosses above the 1.0937 resistance mark, it would test higher levels in the future sessions. EUR/USD risks facing downward pressures if the ECB turns more dovish, reflecting further aggressive rate cuts. Any weakness in the Eurozone economics, notably in

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Outlook: Gains Persevere Above 1.0400 On Weaker USD, Higher Upside Plausible

  • BY
  • March 3, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The EUR/USD currency pair makes a recovery above the 1.0400 level at the beginning of the week, boosted by a weaker US Dollar. Having rebounded off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at around 1.0370, the currency pair exhibits signs of stabilizing, with the possibility of advancing towards the 1.0450 resistance and potentially the 1.0500 psychological mark. Yet, technical indicators are still mixed, calling for caution among bullish traders. On the downside, a break below 1.0370 may initiate further losses towards 1.0330 and 1.0300. Market sentiment continues to be driven by fears of US policies, and key resistance and support levels are important for short-term trading strategies. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD requires sustained strength above the 1.0450 resistance, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level, to validate further bullish momentum. • 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0370 is critical support; breaking below this might fuel selling pressure towards 1.0330 and 1.0300. • A weaker US Dollar provides EUR/USD with support, but any change in sentiment or better US data might cap the upside. • Ambiguity over US policies, such as tariffs, is still a risk driver that might fuel volatility and affect EUR/USD’s short-term direction. The EUR/USD currency pair continues to rise above 1.0400, boosted by a softer US Dollar and technical strength around significant Fibonacci levels. A sustained rally above 1.0450 may open the way for further advances towards the psychological 1.0500 level, with solid support at 1.0370 being essential to avoid downside risks. Market sentiment remains guarded, with worries about US policies, such as possible tariff proposals, contributing to the uncertainty. Traders will be keeping a close eye on these crucial technical levels and wider economic events, however, as a change in USD strength or policy stance would make the next EUR/USD direction potentially important. EUR/USD is defended at 1.0400 by a weakening USD and significant technical levels. Further advances can be expected should the pair break above 1.0450, with support standing firm at 1.0370. • The pair gains are maintained thanks to a softer US Dollar and technical support. • Breakout above the level may lead prices to the 1.0500 psychological level. • 50% Fibonacci retracement is essential support to arrest further decline. • Weaker US Dollar drives the recovery of the pair, but any change in sentiment may restrict gains. • Oscillators do not fully endorse a bullish bias, making traders cautious. • Ambiguity regarding tariff proposals and economic policy may trigger volatility. • A breakdown below 1.0370 may bring declines towards 1.0330, 1.0300, and lower supports. The EUR/USD currency pair is still underpinned by a softer US Dollar with market sentiment tilting towards optimistic caution. Economic uncertainties surrounding US policies and international trade conditions are still affecting investor sentiment. The recent USD weakness is due to the fears of economic stability and future policy changes, which have brought some comfort to the euro. As investors are realizing these events, overall economic trends and geopolitical tensions will be determinative forces in guiding the currency pair’s direction. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from currency flows, global market forces such as inflation patterns, central bank policies, and trade policies are major drivers to be monitored. The tariff and economic policy talks ongoing in the US provide an added layer of uncertainty, which would affect risk-taking appetite. On the other hand, investors are keeping a keen eye on the release of economic data and statements by major financial institutions, which will give us a clue on future market action. Under these conditions, a balanced strategy taking into account both economic underpinnings and geopolitics is still imperative for market players. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has demonstrated strength above the 1.0400 level, with strong support at 1.0370 and strong resistance at 1.0450. The pair bounced recently off the 50% Fibonacci retracement point, hinting at a possible stabilization of price action. A continued break above the 1.0450 resistance, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level, would indicate further upside towards the psychological 1.0500 level. Momentum indicators are still contradictory, though, and warn against taking bold bullish positions. On the downside, a breakdown through 1.0370 may bring about further losses towards 1.0330 and 1.0300, underlining the significance of these technical levels in setting the direction for the next move. FORECAST EUR/USD remains above 1.0400, displaying signs of steadiness as the US Dollar falters. If the pair continues to maintain its trend, a breakout above the resistance level of 1.0450 could lead to more increases. This is also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a significant obstacle for bulls. A successful break beyond this level may propel the pair towards the 1.0500 psychological level, then the recent high of 1.0525-1.0530. Further upside, if market sentiment continues to be positive, may extend to 1.0550 and higher. On the flip side, 1.0370 is an important support level, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. A fall below this may see enhanced selling pressure, driving the pair towards 1.0330 and 1.0300. Should bearish momentum hold, the following targets would include the 1.0285 area, with the February swing low at approximately 1.0210 afterward. A second drop would get EUR/USD to the 1.0180-1.0175 region, a two-year lows level. Levels to monitor, as any movement in USD strength or risk would trigger further downfall.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Trump Tariff Threats Shake Eurozone Markets

  • BY
  • February 27, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD is under fresh pressure as the US’s former President Donald Trump once again threatens to slap 25% tariffs on Eurozone automobiles and other imports, driving the currency pair close to 1.0460. The US Dollar becomes a safe-haven in the face of rising trade tensions, though hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate cut cap its upside. While political instability in Germany and the weak economic performance in the Eurozone contribute to the woes of the Euro, investors now wait with bated breath for critical economic releases such as the US PCE inflation and initial HICP from the major Eurozone economies, which may also continue to sway sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • The proposal by the US President to apply 25% tariffs on cars in the Eurozone is worrying about trade tensions and regional economic growth. • Safe-haven appetite increases the USD, but hope for a June Federal Reserve rate cut may prevent its further gain. • The release of Friday’s preliminary HICP inflation figures in Germany, France, and Italy will inform expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s forthcoming monetary policy. • US Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and the PCE inflation report are carefully followed by investors as gauges for the Fed’s future policy. EUR/USD continues to come under pressure as Trump’s fresh tariff threats against Eurozone imports add to trade tensions, increasing the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Nevertheless, anticipation of a June Federal Reserve rate cut caps the greenback’s gains. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Germany’s coalition government and structural economic issues also continue to put pressure on the Euro. Investors shift their attention to important economic indicators, such as the US PCE inflation report and initial HICP inflation readings from major Eurozone economies, which will be instrumental in determining market mood and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance. EUR/USD falters as Trump’s threats of tariffs on the Eurozone increase the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. Attention turns to US PCE inflation and Eurozone HICP data, which will shape the Federal Reserve and ECB’s monetary policy direction. • The US President intends to apply 25% tariffs to Eurozone vehicles, escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty. • The pair declines close to 1.0460, dragged down by tariff concerns and deteriorating Eurozone economic conditions. • Safe-haven demand for the USD grows but is tempered by expectations of a June Fed rate cut that curb its potential. • Continuity of coalition government talks exacerbates the Euro’s woes and economic uncertainty. • German, French, and Italian HICP inflation prints on the way, which will guide ECB monetary policy expectations. • Durable Goods Orders and PCE inflation headlines will steer Fed rate views. • EUR/USD is getting major support at 1.0440, with a resistance level of 1.0630, while RSI indicates declining bullish momentum. EUR/USD is under pressure as trade tensions between the US and Eurozone rise following the fresh threats by former US President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on European car imports. This has raised fears regarding the economic blow for the Eurozone, which is already reeling under poor demand and sluggish growth. In turn, a European Commission official threatened severe retaliatory action against any unwarranted trade restrictions. At the same time, political instability in Germany contributes to the region’s instability, with coalition talks prolonging economic uncertainty. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has called on the new German government to tackle structural vulnerabilities to enhance the country’s competitiveness. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, market participants are anxiously awaiting economic indicators that would determine the next policy action from the Federal Reserve. Although the US Dollar has strengthened on account of its safe-haven demand, hopes for a Fed rate cut in June still dominate sentiment. Latest economic data point to a moderation in US service sector growth and dipping consumer confidence, supporting expectations of monetary easing. While that is happening, investors are also waiting for crucial inflation readings such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is an important gauge of the Fed’s inflation expectations. Traders in the Eurozone are also watching out for the German, French, and Italian inflation data in the coming days, which will help decide the direction of European Central Bank’s future monetary policy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow band around 1.0500, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as solid support around 1.0440. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) floats below the 60.00 mark, showing no strong bullish momentum. A break above this level could instigate further bullish potential. On the negative side, the February 10 low of 1.0285 serves as a crucial support level, and resistance is at the December 6 high of 1.0630. A move above this resistance might solidify the position of the Euro, while a fall below the crucial support levels might accelerate selling pressure. FORECAST In case market sentiment turns positive for risk assets, EUR/USD might recover. A less firm US inflation reading, specifically a softer-than-anticipated PCE Price Index, might support the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, which would put downward pressure on the US Dollar. And if Eurozone inflation readings surprise to the upside, it might make the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold off on rate cuts even stronger, which would be bullish for the Euro. Any settlement or relief in trade tensions between the US and Eurozone can also give a boost to EUR/USD. A breakout above the crucial resistance of 1.0630 can pave the way for further advances. Conversely, ongoing trade uncertainty due to Trump’s tariff threats can also bear down heavily on the Euro, as the Eurozone economy is still fragile. Any indication of economic fragility in Germany, particularly from future inflation readings or coalition government instability, would also have a further bearish effect on sentiment towards the Euro. If US economic figures remain robust, corroborating the Fed’s conservatism in reducing interest rates, then the US Dollar could gain further support, driving EUR/USD down. A fall below the

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Major Resistance Levels and Market Trends In the Wake of Political Stability in Germany

  • BY
  • February 25, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD is gaining momentum around 1.0470 in the Asian session on the back of renewed political stability in Germany following the election win of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance. Nevertheless, the pair is still bearish below the 100-period EMA, with major resistance at 1.0525-1.0530. A breakout above this level might trigger more gains towards 1.0630 and higher, while risks of a decline exist at 1.0400, with possible falls towards 1.0295 and 1.0210. Market sentiment is still cautious, with technical analysis indicating a mix of signals, making the 1.0500 level the key battleground for traders. KEY LOOKOUTS           • EUR/USD has key resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout potentially giving way to further gains towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The duo finds initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially taking it down to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish picture, while the RSI level of 55.50 indicates possible upside action. • The CDU/CSU election win in Germany boosts EUR sentiment, but investor attention is still on major technical levels and economic indicators for further direction. EUR/USD is still at a crucial point, trading around 1.0470, as the market weighs important technical and political considerations. The pair is under significant resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and a break higher could unlock the way to 1.0630 and 1.0777. Support on the downside is at 1.0400, with potential further losses towards 1.0295 and 1.0210 if selling gains momentum. The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish stance, while RSI at 55.50 indicates some upside potential. The CDU/CSU election win by Germany has also brought temporary stability to the Euro, but market sentiment is still wary, with the market closely observing economic data and global risk trends. EUR/USD remains close to 1.0470, with important resistance seen at 1.0525-1.0530 and support near 1.0400. The 100-period EMA remains bearish in its outlook, although the RSI indicates potential upside. Political stability in Germany favors the Euro but market sentiment is cautious. • EUR/USD is confronted by strong resistance near 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout having the potential to move the pair towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The pair meets initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially pushing to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish direction, limiting upside. • The 14-day RSI at 55.50 indicates probable upside momentum, subject to the ongoing bearish trend. • Germany’s CDU/CSU election success has brought temporary stability to the Euro, allowing for modest gains. • A breakdown below the lower band of 1.0295 could provoke further losses, with the upper band around 1.0530 serving as resistance. • Market participants are keeping a close eye on economic indicators and global risk factors for further guidance. EUR/USD currency pair is witnessing a change in market mood as political stability is back in Germany. The recent election win of the CDU/CSU coalition has allayed fears of extended political uncertainty, sending confidence in the Euro higher. Investors are now closely watching how this leadership transition will impact economic policies, trade relations, and fiscal strategies. With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, its political direction plays a crucial role in shaping the broader European financial landscape. The market remains attentive to upcoming policy decisions that could influence investor confidence and economic growth. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Outside of politics, trends in global economics and macroeconomic events still dictate EUR/USD direction. Inflation rates, central bank actions, and geopolitical tensions are still major determinants of market sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and economic releases will still be important variables in dictating the pair’s direction in the future. Foremost, ongoing debates on global trade, energy prices, and economic recovery after the pandemic provide another dimension of uncertainty. As investors ponder these issues, market players take a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating better clarity on both regional and world economic situations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a tentative area, as major indicators will determine its immediate direction. The pair is hovering below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supporting a bearish attitude. Yet, Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 55.50 indicates moderate bullish pressure, and hopes for a move higher still linger. The Bollinger Bands signal possible volatility, the higher band serving as resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and the lower band at 1.0295 acting as support. A clean break above resistance would initiate further advances, while below support would increase selling pressure. Traders are keeping close watch at these levels for confirmation on the direction of the next trend. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to cross above the crucial resistance area of 1.0525-1.0530, bullish pressure may intensify, driving the pair to even higher levels. A continued breakout above this range can draw new buying interest, likely propelling prices to 1.0630, a key level of resistance in December 2024. Still higher, a rally could continue to 1.0777, a level that was recently tested in August 2024. Improved market sentiment, better Eurozone economic statistics, or a more dovish bias from the U.S. Federal Reserve could still contribute to uptrend momentum in the pair. EUR/USD cannot stay above the 1.0400 psychological level support, and selling pressure may gain strength to cause more declines. Breaking below this psychological level may lay the ground for declines to the lower Bollinger Band at 1.0295, with an even deeper fall targeting 1.0210, the early February 2024 low. Bearishness can be triggered by more robust U.S. economic reports, a dovish Federal Reserve, or risk aversion across markets. In this situation, investors might rush to safe-haven assets, further stressing the Euro.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidation Near Multi-Week Highs with Bullish Potential

  • BY
  • February 17, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting around a multi-week high, just below the psychological 1.0500 level, after its sharp appreciation last week. The technical environment still favors bulls, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and positive oscillators offering scope for further upside. A close above 1.0545-1.0555 may set the stage for further gains towards 1.0600 and higher. But if the pair does not hold 1.0465, it might lead to a drop to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s, with momentum returning to the bears. Traders can monitor key support and resistance levels for possible breakout or retracement strategies. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakout above this confluence area, including the 50% Fibonacci level and 100-day EMA, could propel EUR/USD towards the 1.0600 level. • A firm breakdown below this 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level may indicate weakness, pulling EUR/USD down to 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s in the near future. • A weaker US Dollar still favors the pair’s upward momentum, but any reversal of USD strength may limit gains and initiate fresh falls. • If EUR/USD breaks above the December 2024 swing high, it could confirm an extension of the bullish trend, paving the way for a long-term recovery from multi-year lows. The EUR/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation at its multi-week high, just below the 1.0500 level as investors weigh their next move. The technical bias is bullish, and a possible breakout above the resistance zone of 1.0545-1.0555, which contains the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 100-day EMA, may push the pair to 1.0600 and 1.0630. However, a drop below the support level of 1.0465 may change the trend in favor of the bears, driving the pair lower to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s. The performance of the US Dollar continues to be a prime driver, and any revival in greenback demand has the potential to cap EUR/USD gains or initiate a slide. These levels need to be watched closely by traders to understand the pair’s next move. The EUR/USD pair consolidates below 1.0500, with bullish potential if it breaks above 1.0545-1.0555, heading towards 1.0600. A fall below 1.0465 could lead to further losses towards 1.0400. The US Dollar’s movement continues to be the most important factor in deciding the pair’s next direction. • EUR/USD is trapped in a narrow range close to a multi-week high, unable to break above the crucial 1.0500 psychological level. • Upbeat oscillators and a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are in favor of additional upside momentum. • A breakout above this confluence area (50% Fibonacci retracement + 100-day EMA) may drive EUR/USD towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. • Sustaining above this level is vital for maintaining bullish momentum; a break below could initiate losses towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. • Softer US Dollar is bullish for EUR/USD, but rebound in USD strength could cap further upside. • Failure of support at 1.0465 could lead to increased selling pressure, focusing attention on 1.0200 in a further bearish continuation. • Market participants need to watch price closely around key levels to validate a breakout above 1.0545 or a breakdown below 1.0465 for clear trend direction. The EUR/USD currency pair remains cautiously bullish with solid technical support at 1.0465 serving as an important level to the buyers. A move through the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100-day EMA, may validate further higher potential. With the pair trading above this band, the following targets would include 1.0600 and 1.0630, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies. A successful break above these levels could prolong the recent upturn to 1.0700, further bolstering the uptrend. Optimistic momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD favor this case, indicating bulls might try to regain higher levels in the short term. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But the bear risks persist if EUR/USD cannot hold the 1.0465 support level. A decisive break below this point could signal weakness, dragging the pair toward the 1.0400 psychological level and further down to the mid-1.0300s, which align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deeper sell-off could see EUR/USD testing 1.0200, especially if the US Dollar strengthens due to hawkish Federal Reserve policies or better-than-expected US economic data. Traders must monitor market sentiment and major economic releases, as any change in the strength of the USD would significantly impact the pair’s next significant move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is maintaining its position close to a multi-week high, with the price action being supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January downtrend. The daily chart oscillators are still in positive territory, indicating bullish momentum. A clean break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day EMA, may drive the pair towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. The 1.0465 level is immediate support on the downside, and a fall below this level could trigger falls towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. The 200-day EMA and support trendline will also be responsible for identifying the next direction. Breakout confirmations above resistance or below support should be looked out for by traders to gauge the pair’s next trend. FORECAST The EUR/USD pair will remain bullish as long as it remains above the 1.0465 support level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance level, which encompasses the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day EMA, would propel it further up. In case the pair manages to hold its ground past this area, the next trigger would be 1.0600, then the 1.0630 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is present. A continued rally above this level may prolong the recent upturn, and the pair may move towards 1.0700 in the next few weeks. But for the bullish trend to gain momentum, the buyers must overcome these resistance levels with good volume and strength. On the other hand, a failure to stay above the 1.0465 support level may turn the tide in favor of the bears. A clean break below this

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD stabilizes at 1.0400 ahead of US NFP and Fed Interest Rate Expectation

  • BY
  • February 7, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD continues within the trading ranges at 1.0400, awaiting release of US NFP, while this is perceived to determine a mood for subsequent Fed interest rates decisions. During the cautious day of the United States Dollar trade, June cut of the federal rate remains pending. The Eurozone is feeling the pinch of economic uncertainty due to concerns over potential US tariffs on European goods. The European Central Bank stays dovish, maintaining an accommodative tone. The technical outlook remains bearish with strong support at 1.0177 and resistance at 1.0500 as the market slices through economic data and global trade risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The NFP report is due out soon and will be driving Fed rate expectations, with good job numbers delaying rate cuts and weak data lifting dovish bets. • The market is still expecting a June rate cut, but any change in the Fed’s tone depending on the data, especially inflation and labor market, could see the US Dollar swing. • The Euro is under pressure due to economic growth concerns, dovish ECB outlook, and potential trade tensions with the US, which could affect the currency’s stability. • EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0500, while support lies at 1.0177, with the 50-day EMA and RSI indicating a sideways to bearish trend in the near term. EUR/USD is being capped within tight ranges around 1.0400 as investors prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will influence the monetary policy outlook by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Strong labor market data may fortify the views that the Fed would like to sustain higher interest rates for more extended periods of time, and poor data will increase the scope of speculations for a rate cut in June. However, the Euro came under pressure from heightened economic uncertainties in the Eurozone, which include the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) and threats of potential US trade tariffs. Meanwhile, technical indicators project a cautious outlook. The main resistance remains at 1.0500, while support is at 1.0177, keeping dealers on their toes. EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.0400. The economy may take shape with regards to Fed rate outlook over US NFP and the more dovish stance by ECB coupled with potential US trade tariffs, weighing on Euro. Keep an eye on resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177. • A healthy jobs report should delay Fed rate cuts, and softer data will increase the bets for dovish rates. • Markets are expecting a June rate cut, but Fed policy change can alter the strength of the USD. • ECB dovish attitude coupled with sluggish growth affects the outlook for the Euro. • Tensions in trade can potentially damage the economy of Eurozone leading to volatile market conditions. • The chart at 1.0500 acts as major resistance for EUR/USD while major support is at 1.0177, and the trend is bearish. • DXY-USD Index still holds much significance and changes in that affect the moves in EUR/USD. • Average Hourly Earnings data will help understand inflationary trends, impacting Fed policy expectations. EUR/USD remains locked in a trading range around 1.0400 as market participants wait for the highly influential US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may significantly alter the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. A strong labor market reading could solidify expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer and support the US Dollar. Weaker employment data will fuel speculation of an earlier rate cut, which puts pressure on the Greenback and could lift EUR/USD. The European Central Bank is dovish; its policymakers are signaling that there is room for further rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over the Eurozone. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA EUR/USD risks from possible trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. US President Donald Trump hinted that he would levy tariffs on goods imported from Europe, a development that will continue to dent the region’s economy and weaken the Euro. Technically, there is still caution as it hovers above resistance at 1.0500 and below support at 1.0177. It stays below the 50-day EMA while its RSI prints a neutral-to-bearish trend. Traders will watch the NFP data, wage growth figures, and further US-Eurozone trade relations developments for directional guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is under pressure, trading at 1.0400, with key resistance at 1.0500 and strong support at 1.0177. The pair is unable to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, indicating a bearish bias. At 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) between 40.00 and 60.00 the pair is neutral to slightly bearish momentum. In case the pair fails to break up at 1.0400, it’s likely to hit further down at 1.0177. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0500 would provide the trigger for a short-term bullish reversal. Traders will be tracking the decisive break above or below these levels to confirm the direction of the next trend. FORECAST However, a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report ahead could send the EUR/USD even higher as the market would be further reoriented into the Federal Reserve cut on June. A weaker labor market puts pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the Euro to strengthen. If the pair can clear the resistance level of 1.0500, it would then open doors for further gains to 1.0600 and then 1.0750. In addition, any hawkish move by the ECB or economic rebound in the Eurozone can strengthen investors’ confidence in the Euro. A softer US stance on threatened tariffs imposed on European merchandise can also be seen to boost the positive EUR/USD sentiment. The pair remains sensitive to downside risks, with this week’s US labor market set to be a potent risk for EUR/USD if the data proves stronger than expected. A quality NFP report should lower the probability that the Fed will cut rates, favoring the US Dollar and driving EUR/USD even lower. Technically, if this pair does not stay atop of 1.0400, key support is located at 1.0177, and then comes a psychological level of 1.0100. Additionally, increasing economic uncertainty within the

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EURUSD Bounces Back to the Highs of Almost 1.0550 After a Dive from New Yearly Lows

EURUSD Bounces Back to the Highs of Almost 1.0550 After a Dive from New Yearly Lows EUR/USD erased substantial losses after a run of five consecutive negatives, bouncing to the areas around 1.0540 during Asian trading on Friday. This followed the US Dollar Index (DXY) taking its first retreats from the newest yearly high reached at 107.06. Both dovish comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and mixed US economics data influenced the move. Despite the strength in Euro, the European Central Bank still remains cautious on the economic outlook, leaving its future movements toward the pair subject to developments both in the US and the Eurozone. EUR/USD’s Recent Rebound and the Pullback in the US Dollar The currency pair EUR/USD recovered some of the losses because of a correction within the US Dollar. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) had skyrocketed to 107.06 for the year, the reversal in this upward trend for the greenback, as well as its corresponding reversal for the Euro itself, contributed to a modest rebound for the Euro, and EUR/USD advanced toward 1.0540. US Dollar Pulls Back Some of the factors behind the U.S. Dollar’s pullback have been the slowdown of so-called “Trump trades,” that had been helping the dollar out in the first half of the year. These trades-tied very closely to expectations surrounding economic policies from the previous U.S. administration-have started to lose some of their momentum as market sentiment shifts. Simultaneously, comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding the US economy lighten the tone of the US Dollar. Powell described the US economic performance as “remarkably good, thus giving Federal Reserve some leniency to slowly trim its interest rates. Contrastively, such rhetoric is diametrically opposed to the more hawkish tone that had prevailed in communications until now by the Fed, thus questioning a change in policy that should continue to weaken the Dollar at least in the short term. Mixed US Economic Data Powell’s comments came simultaneously with the release of US PPI numbers. The PPI index increased 2.4% year-over-year in October, beating the revised 1.9% of September and more than the market’s expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the Core PPI for the month rose 3.1% YoY from 3.0% expectation, which eliminates food and energy prices. Although the data showed inflationary pressures were on the rise, which would play into the hands of the USD in the long run, the immediate reaction was tame because attention shifted to Powell’s more dovish talk over interest rates.The convergence of these factors saw DXY pull back, falling to around 106.80 at time of writing, providing some respite to the Euro and pushing EUR/USD higher from recent lows. EUR/USD Daily Chart Source: TradingView, by Richard Miles ECB in a Catch 22 Situation: How to Cut Rates while Tackling Inflation Though the Euro has gained a few percent against the US Dollar, European Central Bank ECB is now caught between the politics of rate cuts, and home-grown inflationary concerns. Home-grown inflationary pressures-the central issue for ECB officials-arise from the boost in wages. ECB is emphasizing more on cutting of interest rates. Showing an increased receptivity to cut rates, the central bank at the monetary policy meeting in October signaled that it was indeed turning its ears to the calls of the reducing economy. This news marks a change in tone especially since the growth fell way slower than expected, and equally, inflation data in the Eurozone remains weak. For Isabel Schnabel, an ECB board member, interest rates remain the prime instrument for policy changes but the secondary adding instruments are buys on bonds and forward guidance. While the ECB is paying increasing attention to cuts in rates, it has been quite cautious in taking concrete steps for some time now because the inflationary pressures continue unabated in the Eurozone. With hard-striving increases in wages coupled with the growth in labor productivity lagging behind, the raised fears of a wage-price spiral – where the increase in wages leads to higher prices that trigger even more wage increase in a spiral ride – belie this potential outcome working adversely for the ECB’s desired goal of putting inflation back on track. ECB Cautious on Inflationary Pressures The ECB is more sensitive to the realization that an early policy response, in this case, even some rate cuts, will mean high inflationary pressures. The central bank has thus indicated a need for more data before doing significant policy changes. The situation remains fluid, and the ECB is likely to continue monitoring the economic and inflationary landscape very carefully before making its next move. Meanwhile, the Eurozone is likely to continue struggling to find elusive momentum in growth. Most analysts think it will slow down in 2025. Cut in rates by the ECB would weaken the Euro further though the timing and full quantum of cut are still unclear. Key Economic Data to Watch The movements of the EUR/USD pair are likely to be sensitive to these upcoming data releases, especially from both the US and the Eurozone. Here are some of the key economic events and indicators to monitor in the coming days: US Economic Data US Retail Sales (October): Details about US retail sales may help explain the soundness of the US consumer-the very pulse of the whole economy. Better-than-expected retail sales can also be an additional strength for the US dollar if it translates to continued demand despite higher inflation. US CPI (Consumer Price Index): The main ‘event’ in the Dollar’s line-up will be the release of the US CPI report. In case inflation remains at these levels or even increases further, then this might lead to ideas about the Fed rate policy turnaround and hence a boost for the USD. Eurozone Economic Data Eurozone GDP Growth (Q3): The GDP data for the Eurozone will say much about its general health. Weaker growth than expected would only raise more concerns regarding the Euro outlook, while stronger growth could support the Euro in the short term.Eurozone CPI (Oct): Eurozone inflation

Read More