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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Grapples Below 1.0900 on Overbought Conditions, Trade War Jitters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is under selling pressure below the significant 1.0900 barrier, as an overbought technical environment and fresh global trade war tensions offer resistance. Despite its bullish tone above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the pair has dropped to approximately 1.0830 during early European trade on Monday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 70 indicates limited upside potential in the near term, which may trigger possible consolidation. The traders now look forward to crucial economic indicators, such as Germany’s Industrial Production and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, for fresh directional signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD encounters strong resistance at the 1.0900 level; a strong breakout can trigger a rally towards 1.0936 and 1.1000. • The RSI at 71 indicates overbought levels, which could signal a pullback or consolidation prior to the next directional movement. • A decline below 1.0712 could gain traction in the bearish direction, leaving the pair vulnerable to the 100-day EMA level of 1.0544 and lower. • Traders look to Germany’s Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Confidence Index for new market catalysts and possible EUR/USD volatility. The EUR/USD currency pair remains under pressure, fluctuating around 1.0830 as it fights to cross above the important psychological resistance of 1.0900. In spite of trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 71 shows minimal near-term upside potential, pointing towards a possible phase of consolidation. Market sentiment is still bearish as fears of a possible global trade war continue to escalate, weakening appetite for riskier currencies such as the Euro. Market participants are now focusing their attention on forthcoming economic releases, such as Germany’s Industrial Production figures and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, for new hints that might drive the next direction in the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD is held below the 1.0900 resistance line on overbought RSI readings and concerns of global trade war. Investors are waiting for significant Eurozone releases for new direction. Continuing to hold above the 100-day EMA remains bullish to a modest extent. • EUR/USD trades near 1.0830, unable to gain traction above the psychological barrier of 1.0900. • Overbought RSI at levels around 71 suggests potential consolidation or minor retracement in the near term. • The currency pair is in a positive skew, trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), upholding the bullish setup. • The nearest resistance is at 1.0900, with additional upside targets at 1.0936 and the pivotal 1.1000 level. • First support is at 1.0712, with additional downside risk to 1.0544 (100-day EMA) and 1.0360. • Risk appetite is under pressure due to global trade war tensions, impacting demand for risk assets such as the Euro. • Attention is on the forthcoming economic indicators, such as Germany’s Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for new directional signals. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight among investors with increasing fears regarding the overall global economic environment. Market sentiment has become fearful as the specter of a possible trade war discourages risk appetite, and investors are keeping a sharp eye on political and economic happenings. In such a setup, the Euro tends to get exposed to overall market movements, particularly when the world is experiencing heightened uncertainty. At the start of the week, market players are keeping an eye on developments that may influence the overall financial environment and currency fluctuations. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Investors are also anticipating major economic data releases from Europe, including Germany’s Industrial Production numbers and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. These reports will give new information about the state of the European economy and can impact investor sentiment. With volatility likely to continue, market participants are still paying close attention to macroeconomic variables and geopolitical events that can influence the direction of major currency pairs like EUR/USD in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has a moderately bullish bias as it remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), showing underlying support. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 70 level signals overbought, and therefore, the pair might experience resistance in further extending its rise without a retracement pullback. The psychological barrier at 1.0900 continues to be the major obstacle, and a decisive breach above here could set the stage for more gains. Conversely, if the selling gathers pace, the support levels will be monitored to resist a deeper pullback. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to break through the near-term resistance at 1.0900, it might indicate fresh bullish strength in the pair. A successful break might lead the way towards 1.0936, a recent swing high, and then the psychological level at 1.1000. Strong buying interest and positive economic news from the Eurozone might also sustain this upward move, prompting traders to position for higher levels in the near term. Conversely, if the pair is unable to sustain its current levels and comes under mounting selling pressure, it may move towards the initial support level of 1.0712. A fall below this level can initiate a more severe correction towards the 100-day EMA of 1.0544, with additional weakness potentially pulling the pair down to 1.0360. Any disappointing economic data or heightened global risk aversion could accelerate the downside move, weakening the Euro further against the US Dollar.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Approaches Four-Month Highs: Market Forces, Fed Rate Bets, and ECB Policy Changes

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  • March 7, 2025
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EUR/USD is robust above 1.0800, approaching a four-month high as the US Dollar dips with declining Treasury yields and increased hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates for the fifth time in a row, with President Christine Lagarde cautioning against downside risks to economic growth. In the meantime, US employment data indicated a drop in Initial Jobless Claims, while Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are likely to indicate a modest recovery in job additions. Global trade tensions continue, with Canada postponing tariffs on US imports and President Trump exempting Mexico and Canada from his planned duties. In spite of market expectations for additional rate cuts, sustained US and EU inflation continues to hamper central banks’ flexibility to ease monetary policy aggressively. KEY LOOKOUTS                                                                   • The market is poised for aggressive Fed rate cuts, but sustained US inflation may reduce the Fed’s flexibility to loosen monetary policy. • The fifth straight rate cut by the ECB indicates worries over economic stability, with President Lagarde warning of risks to growth on the downside. • Beating jobless claims numbers and a projected NFP bounce back may impact the strength of USD and affect EUR/USD prices. • Uncertainty created by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs and President Trump’s trade policy can impact market mood and risk appetite. EUR/USD remains trading at four-month highs as US Dollar weakness gains momentum following hopes of drastic Fed rate reductions. Still, the fact that both US and EU experience stubborn inflation might keep central banks from further relaxing monetary policy. The fifth successive ECB rate reduction confirms economic stability fears, as President Christine Lagarde has already signaled concerns over risks to growth. Meanwhile, US job data, including lower-than-expected jobless claims and a projected NFP rebound, adds to market uncertainty. Additionally, global trade tensions remain a key factor, with Canada postponing tariffs and President Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian goods under the USMCA shaping investor sentiment. EUR/USD stays close to four-month highs as the US Dollar loses strength in anticipation of higher Fed rate cuts. The ECB’s fifth straight rate cut reflects economic worries, while sustained inflation caps further policy relaxation. International trade tensions and US employment data continue to dominate markets. • The pair remains firm above 1.0800 as supported by a softer US Dollar. • Markets are expecting aggressive Fed rate cuts, but sustained inflation could cap policy relaxation. • The ECB reduced rates for the fifth straight time, pointing to economic worries. • ECB Chief Christine Lagarde warned that threats to economic growth are still biased to the downside. • Initial Unemployment Claims fell, with NFP set to report a small rebound in job growth. • Canada delayed imposing tariffs on US imports, while Trump excluded Mexico and Canada from his suggested tariffs. • Traders balance international trade policies, economic statistics, and inflation trends to determine the next EUR/USD direction. The EUR/USD currency pair is still the point of focus for international markets with economic policies and trade news dictating investor opinions. The latest move by the European Central Bank to lower interest rates was driven by fear over economic stability, with President Christine Lagarde pointing out the threats of diminished growth. At the same time, in the US, monetary policy debate continues to be focused on the Federal Reserve’s strategy in addressing inflation and economic growth. The policymakers continue to weigh the extent to which global uncertainties, such as trade tensions and employment trends, could shape future actions. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical developments and international trade agreements have an important influence on market confidence. Canada’s postponement of tariffs on US products and President Trump’s exclusion of Mexican and Canadian products from planned duties reflect the intricacies of international trade relations. While countries grapple with these issues, companies and investors continue to look at long-term plans for stability and expansion. Economic changes, regulatory reforms, and global cooperation will be the determining factors in the financial environment over the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD remains trading above the 1.0800 level, with bullish pressure close to its four-month highs. The pair’s action indicates solid support at 1.0780, while resistance is still at 1.0850, the March 7 high. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate that the pair is trading in a neutral-to-overbought range, which can signal consolidation or a breakout attempt. Moving averages indicate ongoing upward momentum, with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs concurring in a bullish crossover. But a resolute break above 1.0850 may set the stage for additional advances, while a fall below 1.0780 may portend a near-term pullback. FORECAST As long as market sentiment remains positive towards risk assets and the US Dollar continues to decline on expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, EUR/USD may continue its rally. A sustained break above the 1.0850 resistance level may set the stage for additional gains, potentially towards the 1.0900-1.0950 area. Moreover, if the European Central Bank indicates a solid economic outlook in spite of recent rate cuts, optimism about the Euro may increase, which will help sustain bullish momentum. Conversely, if inflationary pressures in the US continue to push the Federal Reserve to be more conservative in rate cuts, the US Dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on EUR/USD lower. A fall below the critical support level of 1.0780 may lead to a pullback to 1.0720 or even 1.0680. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, trade wars, or poorer-than-anticipated economic reports from the Eurozone may put downward pressure on the Euro and make it more probable for a downward revision in the pair.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rises on Hopes of Ukraine Peace, but ECB Policy and Tariff War Risks Lurk

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  • March 4, 2025
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EUR/USD keeps rising towards the 1.0500 level on hopes of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Yet, the pair’s rally is capped by increased global risk aversion amid heightened trade tensions. US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, and Canada and China have responded with retaliatory actions. Moreover, the US has suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, further adding to geopolitical volatility. In the meantime, the Euro can expect additional pressure before the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, when a widely anticipated rate cut can weigh on the currency. Sidelined US economic data have also added to market uncertainty, leaving traders hesitant to bet on the near-term outlook of the Euro. KEY LOOKOUTS • Optimism regarding a formal Ukraine peace plan is supportive of EUR/USD, but uncertainty prevails as the US suspends military aid to Ukraine. • Trump’s China tariff increases and possible retaliatory actions by Canada and China may spark risk aversion, capping the Euro’s upside potential. • The European Central Bank will likely reduce rates again, which may put pressure on the Euro and affect EUR/USD’s short-term direction. • Disagreement on US manufacturing data contributes to market uncertainty, making investors wary of the Federal Reserve’s next step and dollar strength. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight as hopes for a Ukraine peace agreement offer support, but rising global trade tensions and policy risks cap further advances. The US has suspended all military aid to Ukraine at the direction of President Trump, contributing to geopolitical uncertainty. While Trump’s move to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% has prompted threat of retaliation from Canada and China, it is adding to risk aversion. The European Central Bank meeting also looms as a major trigger, with an expected rate cut that can depreciate the Euro. Also, conflicting US economic data have put investors in confusion regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, which is keeping the currency market nervous. EUR/USD rises on optimism for Ukraine peace agreement but tests resistance as global risk aversion increases. A further escalation in US-China trade tensions and the anticipated ECB rate cut may act as a dampener for the Euro. Heterogeneous US economic data brings more uncertainty to the table, maintaining market mood cautious. • The pair extends its rally at 1.0500 with support from hope for a Ukraine peace agreement. • The US suspended all military aid to Ukraine, further fuelling world tensions and market conservatism. • Trump increases tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, inviting retaliatory threats from Canada and China, elevating risk aversion. • The European Central Bank will likely lower the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps, possibly putting pressure on the Euro. • Conflicting US economic indicators, such as a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI and a firmer S&P Global PMI, contribute to investor uncertainty. • Risk sentiment and policy issues may limit further gains in the Euro despite recent rallies. • Ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path keeps traders on their toes, influencing EUR/USD price action. Global markets are in suspense as geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts define the economic environment. Hopes for a formal Ukraine peace agreement have arisen, with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy negotiating a plan to be presented to the US. However, doubts intensified as the US government suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, fuelling fears over long-term stability in the region. Meanwhile, trade tensions between economies increased, with President Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China strongly opposing, with possible retaliatory measures from Canada. These events underscore the increasing polarization in global relations, impacting investor sentiment and economic policies across the globe. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the economic side, policymakers and market players are keeping a close eye on the European Central Bank’s next meeting, where a possible rate cut is anticipated. Such monetary policy has a significant impact on financial planning and world economic growth. In the US, meanwhile, conflicting economic data have contributed to the uncertainty, with varying indicators of manufacturing performance capturing the difficulty of sustaining stability in a volatile environment. While global economies ride this ride, companies and governments have to be flexible to changing economic circumstances and global policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is stuck around 1.0500, with risk aversion cappping its upside. The pair has been on the verge of consolidation, with market players keenly observing key resistances and supports for signs of a breakout. Moving averages are bearish, while momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicative of indecisiveness in market sentiment. A break above near-term resistance could set the stage for additional gains, while inability to maintain key support levels could prompt a pullback. Technical signals overall point to EUR/USD being in a precarious area, waiting for a more robust catalyst for directional momentum. FORECAST EUR/USD may rise further if sentiment towards the Ukraine peace agreement gets a boost, which would enhance market risk appetite. A diplomatic settlement would alleviate geopolitical risk, potentially strengthening the Euro. Also, if economic statistics from the Eurozone are stronger than anticipated or the European Central Bank (ECB) is less dovish than anticipated, the pair could get further backing. Any US dollar weakness caused by changing Federal Reserve policy or weaker economic data would also provide space for a move upwards. A move above major resistance levels might drive the pair to higher price ranges in the near future. EUR/USD is subject to several downside threats that would limit its momentum. Increased risk aversion as a result of rising trade tensions—like Trump’s raised tariffs on China and possible retaliations from Canada and China—may support the US dollar, which would bear down on the Euro. If the ECB acts on a highly anticipated rate cut or hints at more monetary easing, the Euro could fall as well. Any better-than-expected US economic data would be supportive of the dollar’s advance, which would see the pair fall. A breakdown of crucial support levels could lead to more losses, leaving

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Trump Tariff Threats Shake Eurozone Markets

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  • February 27, 2025
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EUR/USD is under fresh pressure as the US’s former President Donald Trump once again threatens to slap 25% tariffs on Eurozone automobiles and other imports, driving the currency pair close to 1.0460. The US Dollar becomes a safe-haven in the face of rising trade tensions, though hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate cut cap its upside. While political instability in Germany and the weak economic performance in the Eurozone contribute to the woes of the Euro, investors now wait with bated breath for critical economic releases such as the US PCE inflation and initial HICP from the major Eurozone economies, which may also continue to sway sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • The proposal by the US President to apply 25% tariffs on cars in the Eurozone is worrying about trade tensions and regional economic growth. • Safe-haven appetite increases the USD, but hope for a June Federal Reserve rate cut may prevent its further gain. • The release of Friday’s preliminary HICP inflation figures in Germany, France, and Italy will inform expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s forthcoming monetary policy. • US Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and the PCE inflation report are carefully followed by investors as gauges for the Fed’s future policy. EUR/USD continues to come under pressure as Trump’s fresh tariff threats against Eurozone imports add to trade tensions, increasing the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Nevertheless, anticipation of a June Federal Reserve rate cut caps the greenback’s gains. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Germany’s coalition government and structural economic issues also continue to put pressure on the Euro. Investors shift their attention to important economic indicators, such as the US PCE inflation report and initial HICP inflation readings from major Eurozone economies, which will be instrumental in determining market mood and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance. EUR/USD falters as Trump’s threats of tariffs on the Eurozone increase the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. Attention turns to US PCE inflation and Eurozone HICP data, which will shape the Federal Reserve and ECB’s monetary policy direction. • The US President intends to apply 25% tariffs to Eurozone vehicles, escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty. • The pair declines close to 1.0460, dragged down by tariff concerns and deteriorating Eurozone economic conditions. • Safe-haven demand for the USD grows but is tempered by expectations of a June Fed rate cut that curb its potential. • Continuity of coalition government talks exacerbates the Euro’s woes and economic uncertainty. • German, French, and Italian HICP inflation prints on the way, which will guide ECB monetary policy expectations. • Durable Goods Orders and PCE inflation headlines will steer Fed rate views. • EUR/USD is getting major support at 1.0440, with a resistance level of 1.0630, while RSI indicates declining bullish momentum. EUR/USD is under pressure as trade tensions between the US and Eurozone rise following the fresh threats by former US President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on European car imports. This has raised fears regarding the economic blow for the Eurozone, which is already reeling under poor demand and sluggish growth. In turn, a European Commission official threatened severe retaliatory action against any unwarranted trade restrictions. At the same time, political instability in Germany contributes to the region’s instability, with coalition talks prolonging economic uncertainty. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has called on the new German government to tackle structural vulnerabilities to enhance the country’s competitiveness. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, market participants are anxiously awaiting economic indicators that would determine the next policy action from the Federal Reserve. Although the US Dollar has strengthened on account of its safe-haven demand, hopes for a Fed rate cut in June still dominate sentiment. Latest economic data point to a moderation in US service sector growth and dipping consumer confidence, supporting expectations of monetary easing. While that is happening, investors are also waiting for crucial inflation readings such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is an important gauge of the Fed’s inflation expectations. Traders in the Eurozone are also watching out for the German, French, and Italian inflation data in the coming days, which will help decide the direction of European Central Bank’s future monetary policy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow band around 1.0500, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as solid support around 1.0440. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) floats below the 60.00 mark, showing no strong bullish momentum. A break above this level could instigate further bullish potential. On the negative side, the February 10 low of 1.0285 serves as a crucial support level, and resistance is at the December 6 high of 1.0630. A move above this resistance might solidify the position of the Euro, while a fall below the crucial support levels might accelerate selling pressure. FORECAST In case market sentiment turns positive for risk assets, EUR/USD might recover. A less firm US inflation reading, specifically a softer-than-anticipated PCE Price Index, might support the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, which would put downward pressure on the US Dollar. And if Eurozone inflation readings surprise to the upside, it might make the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold off on rate cuts even stronger, which would be bullish for the Euro. Any settlement or relief in trade tensions between the US and Eurozone can also give a boost to EUR/USD. A breakout above the crucial resistance of 1.0630 can pave the way for further advances. Conversely, ongoing trade uncertainty due to Trump’s tariff threats can also bear down heavily on the Euro, as the Eurozone economy is still fragile. Any indication of economic fragility in Germany, particularly from future inflation readings or coalition government instability, would also have a further bearish effect on sentiment towards the Euro. If US economic figures remain robust, corroborating the Fed’s conservatism in reducing interest rates, then the US Dollar could gain further support, driving EUR/USD down. A fall below the

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Major Resistance Levels and Market Trends In the Wake of Political Stability in Germany

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  • February 25, 2025
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EUR/USD is gaining momentum around 1.0470 in the Asian session on the back of renewed political stability in Germany following the election win of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance. Nevertheless, the pair is still bearish below the 100-period EMA, with major resistance at 1.0525-1.0530. A breakout above this level might trigger more gains towards 1.0630 and higher, while risks of a decline exist at 1.0400, with possible falls towards 1.0295 and 1.0210. Market sentiment is still cautious, with technical analysis indicating a mix of signals, making the 1.0500 level the key battleground for traders. KEY LOOKOUTS           • EUR/USD has key resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout potentially giving way to further gains towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The duo finds initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially taking it down to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish picture, while the RSI level of 55.50 indicates possible upside action. • The CDU/CSU election win in Germany boosts EUR sentiment, but investor attention is still on major technical levels and economic indicators for further direction. EUR/USD is still at a crucial point, trading around 1.0470, as the market weighs important technical and political considerations. The pair is under significant resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and a break higher could unlock the way to 1.0630 and 1.0777. Support on the downside is at 1.0400, with potential further losses towards 1.0295 and 1.0210 if selling gains momentum. The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish stance, while RSI at 55.50 indicates some upside potential. The CDU/CSU election win by Germany has also brought temporary stability to the Euro, but market sentiment is still wary, with the market closely observing economic data and global risk trends. EUR/USD remains close to 1.0470, with important resistance seen at 1.0525-1.0530 and support near 1.0400. The 100-period EMA remains bearish in its outlook, although the RSI indicates potential upside. Political stability in Germany favors the Euro but market sentiment is cautious. • EUR/USD is confronted by strong resistance near 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout having the potential to move the pair towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The pair meets initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially pushing to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish direction, limiting upside. • The 14-day RSI at 55.50 indicates probable upside momentum, subject to the ongoing bearish trend. • Germany’s CDU/CSU election success has brought temporary stability to the Euro, allowing for modest gains. • A breakdown below the lower band of 1.0295 could provoke further losses, with the upper band around 1.0530 serving as resistance. • Market participants are keeping a close eye on economic indicators and global risk factors for further guidance. EUR/USD currency pair is witnessing a change in market mood as political stability is back in Germany. The recent election win of the CDU/CSU coalition has allayed fears of extended political uncertainty, sending confidence in the Euro higher. Investors are now closely watching how this leadership transition will impact economic policies, trade relations, and fiscal strategies. With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, its political direction plays a crucial role in shaping the broader European financial landscape. The market remains attentive to upcoming policy decisions that could influence investor confidence and economic growth. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Outside of politics, trends in global economics and macroeconomic events still dictate EUR/USD direction. Inflation rates, central bank actions, and geopolitical tensions are still major determinants of market sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and economic releases will still be important variables in dictating the pair’s direction in the future. Foremost, ongoing debates on global trade, energy prices, and economic recovery after the pandemic provide another dimension of uncertainty. As investors ponder these issues, market players take a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating better clarity on both regional and world economic situations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a tentative area, as major indicators will determine its immediate direction. The pair is hovering below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supporting a bearish attitude. Yet, Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 55.50 indicates moderate bullish pressure, and hopes for a move higher still linger. The Bollinger Bands signal possible volatility, the higher band serving as resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and the lower band at 1.0295 acting as support. A clean break above resistance would initiate further advances, while below support would increase selling pressure. Traders are keeping close watch at these levels for confirmation on the direction of the next trend. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to cross above the crucial resistance area of 1.0525-1.0530, bullish pressure may intensify, driving the pair to even higher levels. A continued breakout above this range can draw new buying interest, likely propelling prices to 1.0630, a key level of resistance in December 2024. Still higher, a rally could continue to 1.0777, a level that was recently tested in August 2024. Improved market sentiment, better Eurozone economic statistics, or a more dovish bias from the U.S. Federal Reserve could still contribute to uptrend momentum in the pair. EUR/USD cannot stay above the 1.0400 psychological level support, and selling pressure may gain strength to cause more declines. Breaking below this psychological level may lay the ground for declines to the lower Bollinger Band at 1.0295, with an even deeper fall targeting 1.0210, the early February 2024 low. Bearishness can be triggered by more robust U.S. economic reports, a dovish Federal Reserve, or risk aversion across markets. In this situation, investors might rush to safe-haven assets, further stressing the Euro.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies Near 1.0450 Amid Tariff Threats and FOMC Minutes Anticipation

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  • February 19, 2025
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EUR/USD trades near 1.0450 with mild gains in the Asian session, supported by a weaker US Dollar. However, market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns could bolster the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of a 25% tariff on vehicle, chip, and drug imports creates uncertainty, while Ukraine President Zelenskiy rescheduling his visit to Saudi Arabia indicates continued geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the Euro is under pressure as the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell short of expectations and rumors of successive ECB rate cuts hang over the currency. Investors shift their attention to the FOMC Minutes for more information on the Federal Reserve’s position regarding economic threats and monetary policy direction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors eagerly look for the FOMC Minutes to learn about the Fed’s position on inflation, interest rates, and possible economic threats. • The suggested 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports may fan trade tensions, tending to bolster the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. • The Euro comes under pressure with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling short of expectations and ECB rate cut rumors keeping pressure on the future path of the currency. • Tensions in Russia-Ukraine and the delayed Saudi Arabia trip by Zelenskiy keep markets guarded, which can influence risk mood and drive price action in EUR/USD. The EUR/USD currency pair continues to stay in the spotlight with the mixed trend of the currency market on global economic and political fronts. While a softer US Dollar gives the pair temporary boost, rising trade tensions with the imposition of tariffs by Trump on major imports can make the Greenback stronger, curbing the pair’s upside. Also contributing to volatility are geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Zelenskiy’s diplomatic moves. Weaker-than-forecasted economic sentiment data and anticipation of several ECB rate cuts on the Euro side keep the investors guarded. As FOMC Minutes are due to be released, traders will look closely for any indications of upcoming US monetary policy, which can trigger large market movements. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 as geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions make investors remain on guard. Markets look forward to FOMC Minutes to gauge the Fed’s policy attitude. • The pair trades around 1.0450 with support from a weaker US Dollar but is resistant to geopolitical and trade tensions. • A 25% levy on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports can heighten trade tensions and enhance the safe-haven status of the USD. • Market players seek indications on the policy orientation of the Fed, inflation prospects, and risk assessment of the economy. • The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was lower than forecasted, placing added pressure on the Euro amid talk of ECB interest rate reductions. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and Zelenskiy’s delayed Saudi Arabia trip contribute to market uncertainty and risk sentiment swings. • Increasing wagers on three ECB rate reductions this year may further burden the strength of the Euro. • Market participants are cautious as significant economic indicators and geopolitical events may trigger large price movements in the EUR/USD currency pair. The global economy is presently defined by a combination of economic policy and geopolitical occurrences, with trade tensions being at the forefront. US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports has sent investors into a tizzy, as it may affect worldwide supply chains and international trade relationships. In the meantime, the geopolitical front is still unclear, with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy delaying his visit to Saudi Arabia due to ongoing tensions with Russia. These advances build towards a hesitant market atmosphere wherein policymakers and businesses are observing intently the likely changes in trade policies and diplomacy. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Economic sentiment has been exhibiting divergent signs in the European space, with the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index not meeting forecasts. This has fueled debate over the European Central Bank’s next course of action regarding monetary policy, with market players speculating over potential interest rate changes. While economic growth continues to be the focus, disruptions in global trade and changes in economic policies create an added layer of uncertainty. As crucial reports and policy announcements are revealed, companies and investors are seeking insight into long-term economic strategies that may affect global trade, investments, and financial stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.0450 level, with major resistance and support levels that may determine its next direction. The pair is testing a pivotal price area where a breakout above resistance can indicate further upward momentum, while a fall below support can confirm a bearish trend. Traders are monitoring moving averages and RSI levels closely to determine market sentiment, with volume trends suggesting potential volatility in the future. As the FOMC Minutes and geopolitical events drive market direction, technical indicators will be instrumental in determining short-term price action and key entry or exit points for traders. FORECAST EUR/USD is uncertain as several factors drive its possible movement. On the positive side, if the market responds favorably to the FOMC Minutes, reflecting a dovish or cautious approach by the Federal Reserve, the US Dollar may weaken, enabling EUR/USD to pick up pace. Also, any indication of economic strength from the Eurozone or easing of trade tensions would help support the Euro. If the pair is able to break through crucial resistance levels, it could create the opportunity for further gains, drawing in bullish sentiment. To the downside, fears of growing trade tensions, especially Trump’s suggested tariffs on significant imports, could make the US Dollar a safe-haven currency, subjecting EUR/USD to downward pressure. In addition, the Euro is still exposed to speculation regarding several ECB rate reductions this year, which would negatively impact investor sentiment. Should economic indicators for the Eurozone continue to fall short of forecasts, the pair may have trouble sustaining stability, and a breach below major support levels would be a sign of further potential decline. Traders will be keenly watching upcoming economic reports and geopolitical events

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats: Uncertainty Looms Over Global Trade

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  • February 10, 2025
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EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 after an initial dip, but market uncertainty remains as investors react to US President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. The Euro faces additional pressure from potential trade tensions with the US and concerns over the ECB’s ability to support inflation. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell can drive monetary policy expectations. On the technical side, EUR/USD seems to have difficulty around resistance at 1.0500. More importantly, a strong support line remains at 1.0177 that could make or break the pair’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rekindled fears of the trade war on steel and aluminum imports at 25% tariffs have impacted the global markets and the stability of the Euro. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence EUR/USD movements and market sentiment. • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony may provide crucial insights into the US central bank’s interest rate stance, affecting the USD’s strength. • EUR/USD faces strong resistance near 1.0500, while key support at 1.0177 remains critical for determining the pair’s next directional move. EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300, but uncertainty lingers as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fuel trade war fears. Investors remain cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, both of which could influence monetary policy expectations. The Euro faces additional pressure from trade tensions with the US and weak inflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 shaping its next directional move. EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 despite uncertainty from Trump’s tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. Investors await ECB Lagarde’s speech and Fed Powell’s testimony for monetary policy cues. The pair faces resistance at 1.0500, while key support lies at 1.0177. • The pair recovers above 1.0300 despite initial weakness driven by renewed US tariff fears. • Proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raise concerns over global trade tensions and impact market sentiment. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and economic outlook. • The Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony before Congress may provide crucial signals on future interest rate decisions. • The US Dollar Index wobbles around 108.20, maintaining strength on global trade war fears. •The Euro faces additional strain from potential reciprocal tariffs and weaker-than-expected inflation levels. • EUR/USD struggles near 1.0500 resistance, while key support at 1.0177 remains crucial for the pair’s next move. EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session following a weak open as renewed fears over US President Trump’s 25% proposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum reignite the specter of a global trade war and weigh on the market sentiment that increases demand for safe-haven assets. The investors are closely following ECB President Christine Lagarde speech at the European Parliament and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, which could affect the expectations over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays strong near 108.20 due to still uncertain global markets. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Trade tensions, softer inflation than expected in the Eurozone, and the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the ECB are weighing on EUR/USD. The Euro remains vulnerable as economic contraction risks persist, and analysts warn that the US tariff measures could further hurt the European economy. Technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 playing a crucial role in determining the next directional move. Traders will also look to US CPI data, which will be released later this week, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and the US Dollar’s strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around 1.0300, and resistance is located near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, while support is found at 1.0177. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40-60 range, showing a neutral trend with no clear directional momentum. A break above 1.0500 could trigger further gains, while a decline below 1.0177 may push the pair towards 1.0100. Market participants are watching upcoming economic events for clues on future movements, with the pair likely to stay range-bound unless a strong catalyst emerges. FORECAST EUR/USD has the potential to rise if it manages to break above the 50-day EMA at 1.0436, with the next resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500. A decisive push above this region would lead to further strides towards 1.0600, lifted by enhancing Eurozone economic performance data or more dovish US Federal Reserve statements. Another boost comes in case ECB President Christine Lagarde exudes confidence in the current stability of the Eurozone’s economy or gives hints of more tempered rate cuts that might make the Euro regain its strength. A weaker US Dollar, due to either lower-than-expected US inflation data or dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will add further fuel to the upside in EUR/USD. Downside risks include a failure for EUR/USD to hold above 1.0300, where it could face immediate support at 1.0177 (January 13 low) and further declines toward the critical 1.0100 level. A break below 1.0100 could see a test of parity (1.0000) as renewed global trade war fears, following Trump’s tariff threats or worsening Eurozone economic conditions, weigh on the pair. Deeper losses for EUR/USD could be seen if the ECB turns dovish and cuts rates aggressively in response to weak inflation or if the US Dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed comments. Further, geopolitical uncertainty or adverse economic surprise from the Eurozone might hasten the bearish thrust.

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