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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies Near 1.0450 Amid Tariff Threats and FOMC Minutes Anticipation

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  • February 19, 2025
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EUR/USD trades near 1.0450 with mild gains in the Asian session, supported by a weaker US Dollar. However, market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns could bolster the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of a 25% tariff on vehicle, chip, and drug imports creates uncertainty, while Ukraine President Zelenskiy rescheduling his visit to Saudi Arabia indicates continued geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the Euro is under pressure as the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell short of expectations and rumors of successive ECB rate cuts hang over the currency. Investors shift their attention to the FOMC Minutes for more information on the Federal Reserve’s position regarding economic threats and monetary policy direction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors eagerly look for the FOMC Minutes to learn about the Fed’s position on inflation, interest rates, and possible economic threats. • The suggested 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports may fan trade tensions, tending to bolster the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. • The Euro comes under pressure with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling short of expectations and ECB rate cut rumors keeping pressure on the future path of the currency. • Tensions in Russia-Ukraine and the delayed Saudi Arabia trip by Zelenskiy keep markets guarded, which can influence risk mood and drive price action in EUR/USD. The EUR/USD currency pair continues to stay in the spotlight with the mixed trend of the currency market on global economic and political fronts. While a softer US Dollar gives the pair temporary boost, rising trade tensions with the imposition of tariffs by Trump on major imports can make the Greenback stronger, curbing the pair’s upside. Also contributing to volatility are geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Zelenskiy’s diplomatic moves. Weaker-than-forecasted economic sentiment data and anticipation of several ECB rate cuts on the Euro side keep the investors guarded. As FOMC Minutes are due to be released, traders will look closely for any indications of upcoming US monetary policy, which can trigger large market movements. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 as geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions make investors remain on guard. Markets look forward to FOMC Minutes to gauge the Fed’s policy attitude. • The pair trades around 1.0450 with support from a weaker US Dollar but is resistant to geopolitical and trade tensions. • A 25% levy on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports can heighten trade tensions and enhance the safe-haven status of the USD. • Market players seek indications on the policy orientation of the Fed, inflation prospects, and risk assessment of the economy. • The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was lower than forecasted, placing added pressure on the Euro amid talk of ECB interest rate reductions. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and Zelenskiy’s delayed Saudi Arabia trip contribute to market uncertainty and risk sentiment swings. • Increasing wagers on three ECB rate reductions this year may further burden the strength of the Euro. • Market participants are cautious as significant economic indicators and geopolitical events may trigger large price movements in the EUR/USD currency pair. The global economy is presently defined by a combination of economic policy and geopolitical occurrences, with trade tensions being at the forefront. US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports has sent investors into a tizzy, as it may affect worldwide supply chains and international trade relationships. In the meantime, the geopolitical front is still unclear, with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy delaying his visit to Saudi Arabia due to ongoing tensions with Russia. These advances build towards a hesitant market atmosphere wherein policymakers and businesses are observing intently the likely changes in trade policies and diplomacy. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Economic sentiment has been exhibiting divergent signs in the European space, with the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index not meeting forecasts. This has fueled debate over the European Central Bank’s next course of action regarding monetary policy, with market players speculating over potential interest rate changes. While economic growth continues to be the focus, disruptions in global trade and changes in economic policies create an added layer of uncertainty. As crucial reports and policy announcements are revealed, companies and investors are seeking insight into long-term economic strategies that may affect global trade, investments, and financial stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.0450 level, with major resistance and support levels that may determine its next direction. The pair is testing a pivotal price area where a breakout above resistance can indicate further upward momentum, while a fall below support can confirm a bearish trend. Traders are monitoring moving averages and RSI levels closely to determine market sentiment, with volume trends suggesting potential volatility in the future. As the FOMC Minutes and geopolitical events drive market direction, technical indicators will be instrumental in determining short-term price action and key entry or exit points for traders. FORECAST EUR/USD is uncertain as several factors drive its possible movement. On the positive side, if the market responds favorably to the FOMC Minutes, reflecting a dovish or cautious approach by the Federal Reserve, the US Dollar may weaken, enabling EUR/USD to pick up pace. Also, any indication of economic strength from the Eurozone or easing of trade tensions would help support the Euro. If the pair is able to break through crucial resistance levels, it could create the opportunity for further gains, drawing in bullish sentiment. To the downside, fears of growing trade tensions, especially Trump’s suggested tariffs on significant imports, could make the US Dollar a safe-haven currency, subjecting EUR/USD to downward pressure. In addition, the Euro is still exposed to speculation regarding several ECB rate reductions this year, which would negatively impact investor sentiment. Should economic indicators for the Eurozone continue to fall short of forecasts, the pair may have trouble sustaining stability, and a breach below major support levels would be a sign of further potential decline. Traders will be keenly watching upcoming economic reports and geopolitical events

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidation Near Multi-Week Highs with Bullish Potential

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  • February 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting around a multi-week high, just below the psychological 1.0500 level, after its sharp appreciation last week. The technical environment still favors bulls, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and positive oscillators offering scope for further upside. A close above 1.0545-1.0555 may set the stage for further gains towards 1.0600 and higher. But if the pair does not hold 1.0465, it might lead to a drop to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s, with momentum returning to the bears. Traders can monitor key support and resistance levels for possible breakout or retracement strategies. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakout above this confluence area, including the 50% Fibonacci level and 100-day EMA, could propel EUR/USD towards the 1.0600 level. • A firm breakdown below this 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level may indicate weakness, pulling EUR/USD down to 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s in the near future. • A weaker US Dollar still favors the pair’s upward momentum, but any reversal of USD strength may limit gains and initiate fresh falls. • If EUR/USD breaks above the December 2024 swing high, it could confirm an extension of the bullish trend, paving the way for a long-term recovery from multi-year lows. The EUR/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation at its multi-week high, just below the 1.0500 level as investors weigh their next move. The technical bias is bullish, and a possible breakout above the resistance zone of 1.0545-1.0555, which contains the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 100-day EMA, may push the pair to 1.0600 and 1.0630. However, a drop below the support level of 1.0465 may change the trend in favor of the bears, driving the pair lower to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s. The performance of the US Dollar continues to be a prime driver, and any revival in greenback demand has the potential to cap EUR/USD gains or initiate a slide. These levels need to be watched closely by traders to understand the pair’s next move. The EUR/USD pair consolidates below 1.0500, with bullish potential if it breaks above 1.0545-1.0555, heading towards 1.0600. A fall below 1.0465 could lead to further losses towards 1.0400. The US Dollar’s movement continues to be the most important factor in deciding the pair’s next direction. • EUR/USD is trapped in a narrow range close to a multi-week high, unable to break above the crucial 1.0500 psychological level. • Upbeat oscillators and a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are in favor of additional upside momentum. • A breakout above this confluence area (50% Fibonacci retracement + 100-day EMA) may drive EUR/USD towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. • Sustaining above this level is vital for maintaining bullish momentum; a break below could initiate losses towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. • Softer US Dollar is bullish for EUR/USD, but rebound in USD strength could cap further upside. • Failure of support at 1.0465 could lead to increased selling pressure, focusing attention on 1.0200 in a further bearish continuation. • Market participants need to watch price closely around key levels to validate a breakout above 1.0545 or a breakdown below 1.0465 for clear trend direction. The EUR/USD currency pair remains cautiously bullish with solid technical support at 1.0465 serving as an important level to the buyers. A move through the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100-day EMA, may validate further higher potential. With the pair trading above this band, the following targets would include 1.0600 and 1.0630, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies. A successful break above these levels could prolong the recent upturn to 1.0700, further bolstering the uptrend. Optimistic momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD favor this case, indicating bulls might try to regain higher levels in the short term. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But the bear risks persist if EUR/USD cannot hold the 1.0465 support level. A decisive break below this point could signal weakness, dragging the pair toward the 1.0400 psychological level and further down to the mid-1.0300s, which align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deeper sell-off could see EUR/USD testing 1.0200, especially if the US Dollar strengthens due to hawkish Federal Reserve policies or better-than-expected US economic data. Traders must monitor market sentiment and major economic releases, as any change in the strength of the USD would significantly impact the pair’s next significant move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is maintaining its position close to a multi-week high, with the price action being supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January downtrend. The daily chart oscillators are still in positive territory, indicating bullish momentum. A clean break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day EMA, may drive the pair towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. The 1.0465 level is immediate support on the downside, and a fall below this level could trigger falls towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. The 200-day EMA and support trendline will also be responsible for identifying the next direction. Breakout confirmations above resistance or below support should be looked out for by traders to gauge the pair’s next trend. FORECAST The EUR/USD pair will remain bullish as long as it remains above the 1.0465 support level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance level, which encompasses the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day EMA, would propel it further up. In case the pair manages to hold its ground past this area, the next trigger would be 1.0600, then the 1.0630 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is present. A continued rally above this level may prolong the recent upturn, and the pair may move towards 1.0700 in the next few weeks. But for the bullish trend to gain momentum, the buyers must overcome these resistance levels with good volume and strength. On the other hand, a failure to stay above the 1.0465 support level may turn the tide in favor of the bears. A clean break below this

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats: Uncertainty Looms Over Global Trade

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  • February 10, 2025
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EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 after an initial dip, but market uncertainty remains as investors react to US President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. The Euro faces additional pressure from potential trade tensions with the US and concerns over the ECB’s ability to support inflation. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell can drive monetary policy expectations. On the technical side, EUR/USD seems to have difficulty around resistance at 1.0500. More importantly, a strong support line remains at 1.0177 that could make or break the pair’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rekindled fears of the trade war on steel and aluminum imports at 25% tariffs have impacted the global markets and the stability of the Euro. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence EUR/USD movements and market sentiment. • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony may provide crucial insights into the US central bank’s interest rate stance, affecting the USD’s strength. • EUR/USD faces strong resistance near 1.0500, while key support at 1.0177 remains critical for determining the pair’s next directional move. EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300, but uncertainty lingers as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fuel trade war fears. Investors remain cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, both of which could influence monetary policy expectations. The Euro faces additional pressure from trade tensions with the US and weak inflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 shaping its next directional move. EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 despite uncertainty from Trump’s tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. Investors await ECB Lagarde’s speech and Fed Powell’s testimony for monetary policy cues. The pair faces resistance at 1.0500, while key support lies at 1.0177. • The pair recovers above 1.0300 despite initial weakness driven by renewed US tariff fears. • Proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raise concerns over global trade tensions and impact market sentiment. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and economic outlook. • The Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony before Congress may provide crucial signals on future interest rate decisions. • The US Dollar Index wobbles around 108.20, maintaining strength on global trade war fears. •The Euro faces additional strain from potential reciprocal tariffs and weaker-than-expected inflation levels. • EUR/USD struggles near 1.0500 resistance, while key support at 1.0177 remains crucial for the pair’s next move. EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session following a weak open as renewed fears over US President Trump’s 25% proposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum reignite the specter of a global trade war and weigh on the market sentiment that increases demand for safe-haven assets. The investors are closely following ECB President Christine Lagarde speech at the European Parliament and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, which could affect the expectations over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays strong near 108.20 due to still uncertain global markets. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Trade tensions, softer inflation than expected in the Eurozone, and the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the ECB are weighing on EUR/USD. The Euro remains vulnerable as economic contraction risks persist, and analysts warn that the US tariff measures could further hurt the European economy. Technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 playing a crucial role in determining the next directional move. Traders will also look to US CPI data, which will be released later this week, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and the US Dollar’s strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around 1.0300, and resistance is located near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, while support is found at 1.0177. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40-60 range, showing a neutral trend with no clear directional momentum. A break above 1.0500 could trigger further gains, while a decline below 1.0177 may push the pair towards 1.0100. Market participants are watching upcoming economic events for clues on future movements, with the pair likely to stay range-bound unless a strong catalyst emerges. FORECAST EUR/USD has the potential to rise if it manages to break above the 50-day EMA at 1.0436, with the next resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500. A decisive push above this region would lead to further strides towards 1.0600, lifted by enhancing Eurozone economic performance data or more dovish US Federal Reserve statements. Another boost comes in case ECB President Christine Lagarde exudes confidence in the current stability of the Eurozone’s economy or gives hints of more tempered rate cuts that might make the Euro regain its strength. A weaker US Dollar, due to either lower-than-expected US inflation data or dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will add further fuel to the upside in EUR/USD. Downside risks include a failure for EUR/USD to hold above 1.0300, where it could face immediate support at 1.0177 (January 13 low) and further declines toward the critical 1.0100 level. A break below 1.0100 could see a test of parity (1.0000) as renewed global trade war fears, following Trump’s tariff threats or worsening Eurozone economic conditions, weigh on the pair. Deeper losses for EUR/USD could be seen if the ECB turns dovish and cuts rates aggressively in response to weak inflation or if the US Dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed comments. Further, geopolitical uncertainty or adverse economic surprise from the Eurozone might hasten the bearish thrust.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD stabilizes at 1.0400 ahead of US NFP and Fed Interest Rate Expectation

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  • February 7, 2025
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EUR/USD continues within the trading ranges at 1.0400, awaiting release of US NFP, while this is perceived to determine a mood for subsequent Fed interest rates decisions. During the cautious day of the United States Dollar trade, June cut of the federal rate remains pending. The Eurozone is feeling the pinch of economic uncertainty due to concerns over potential US tariffs on European goods. The European Central Bank stays dovish, maintaining an accommodative tone. The technical outlook remains bearish with strong support at 1.0177 and resistance at 1.0500 as the market slices through economic data and global trade risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The NFP report is due out soon and will be driving Fed rate expectations, with good job numbers delaying rate cuts and weak data lifting dovish bets. • The market is still expecting a June rate cut, but any change in the Fed’s tone depending on the data, especially inflation and labor market, could see the US Dollar swing. • The Euro is under pressure due to economic growth concerns, dovish ECB outlook, and potential trade tensions with the US, which could affect the currency’s stability. • EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0500, while support lies at 1.0177, with the 50-day EMA and RSI indicating a sideways to bearish trend in the near term. EUR/USD is being capped within tight ranges around 1.0400 as investors prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will influence the monetary policy outlook by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Strong labor market data may fortify the views that the Fed would like to sustain higher interest rates for more extended periods of time, and poor data will increase the scope of speculations for a rate cut in June. However, the Euro came under pressure from heightened economic uncertainties in the Eurozone, which include the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) and threats of potential US trade tariffs. Meanwhile, technical indicators project a cautious outlook. The main resistance remains at 1.0500, while support is at 1.0177, keeping dealers on their toes. EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.0400. The economy may take shape with regards to Fed rate outlook over US NFP and the more dovish stance by ECB coupled with potential US trade tariffs, weighing on Euro. Keep an eye on resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177. • A healthy jobs report should delay Fed rate cuts, and softer data will increase the bets for dovish rates. • Markets are expecting a June rate cut, but Fed policy change can alter the strength of the USD. • ECB dovish attitude coupled with sluggish growth affects the outlook for the Euro. • Tensions in trade can potentially damage the economy of Eurozone leading to volatile market conditions. • The chart at 1.0500 acts as major resistance for EUR/USD while major support is at 1.0177, and the trend is bearish. • DXY-USD Index still holds much significance and changes in that affect the moves in EUR/USD. • Average Hourly Earnings data will help understand inflationary trends, impacting Fed policy expectations. EUR/USD remains locked in a trading range around 1.0400 as market participants wait for the highly influential US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may significantly alter the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. A strong labor market reading could solidify expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer and support the US Dollar. Weaker employment data will fuel speculation of an earlier rate cut, which puts pressure on the Greenback and could lift EUR/USD. The European Central Bank is dovish; its policymakers are signaling that there is room for further rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over the Eurozone. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA EUR/USD risks from possible trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. US President Donald Trump hinted that he would levy tariffs on goods imported from Europe, a development that will continue to dent the region’s economy and weaken the Euro. Technically, there is still caution as it hovers above resistance at 1.0500 and below support at 1.0177. It stays below the 50-day EMA while its RSI prints a neutral-to-bearish trend. Traders will watch the NFP data, wage growth figures, and further US-Eurozone trade relations developments for directional guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is under pressure, trading at 1.0400, with key resistance at 1.0500 and strong support at 1.0177. The pair is unable to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, indicating a bearish bias. At 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) between 40.00 and 60.00 the pair is neutral to slightly bearish momentum. In case the pair fails to break up at 1.0400, it’s likely to hit further down at 1.0177. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0500 would provide the trigger for a short-term bullish reversal. Traders will be tracking the decisive break above or below these levels to confirm the direction of the next trend. FORECAST However, a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report ahead could send the EUR/USD even higher as the market would be further reoriented into the Federal Reserve cut on June. A weaker labor market puts pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the Euro to strengthen. If the pair can clear the resistance level of 1.0500, it would then open doors for further gains to 1.0600 and then 1.0750. In addition, any hawkish move by the ECB or economic rebound in the Eurozone can strengthen investors’ confidence in the Euro. A softer US stance on threatened tariffs imposed on European merchandise can also be seen to boost the positive EUR/USD sentiment. The pair remains sensitive to downside risks, with this week’s US labor market set to be a potent risk for EUR/USD if the data proves stronger than expected. A quality NFP report should lower the probability that the Fed will cut rates, favoring the US Dollar and driving EUR/USD even lower. Technically, if this pair does not stay atop of 1.0400, key support is located at 1.0177, and then comes a psychological level of 1.0100. Additionally, increasing economic uncertainty within the

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