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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Grapples Below 1.0900 on Overbought Conditions, Trade War Jitters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is under selling pressure below the significant 1.0900 barrier, as an overbought technical environment and fresh global trade war tensions offer resistance. Despite its bullish tone above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the pair has dropped to approximately 1.0830 during early European trade on Monday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 70 indicates limited upside potential in the near term, which may trigger possible consolidation. The traders now look forward to crucial economic indicators, such as Germany’s Industrial Production and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, for fresh directional signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD encounters strong resistance at the 1.0900 level; a strong breakout can trigger a rally towards 1.0936 and 1.1000. • The RSI at 71 indicates overbought levels, which could signal a pullback or consolidation prior to the next directional movement. • A decline below 1.0712 could gain traction in the bearish direction, leaving the pair vulnerable to the 100-day EMA level of 1.0544 and lower. • Traders look to Germany’s Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Confidence Index for new market catalysts and possible EUR/USD volatility. The EUR/USD currency pair remains under pressure, fluctuating around 1.0830 as it fights to cross above the important psychological resistance of 1.0900. In spite of trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 71 shows minimal near-term upside potential, pointing towards a possible phase of consolidation. Market sentiment is still bearish as fears of a possible global trade war continue to escalate, weakening appetite for riskier currencies such as the Euro. Market participants are now focusing their attention on forthcoming economic releases, such as Germany’s Industrial Production figures and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, for new hints that might drive the next direction in the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD is held below the 1.0900 resistance line on overbought RSI readings and concerns of global trade war. Investors are waiting for significant Eurozone releases for new direction. Continuing to hold above the 100-day EMA remains bullish to a modest extent. • EUR/USD trades near 1.0830, unable to gain traction above the psychological barrier of 1.0900. • Overbought RSI at levels around 71 suggests potential consolidation or minor retracement in the near term. • The currency pair is in a positive skew, trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), upholding the bullish setup. • The nearest resistance is at 1.0900, with additional upside targets at 1.0936 and the pivotal 1.1000 level. • First support is at 1.0712, with additional downside risk to 1.0544 (100-day EMA) and 1.0360. • Risk appetite is under pressure due to global trade war tensions, impacting demand for risk assets such as the Euro. • Attention is on the forthcoming economic indicators, such as Germany’s Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for new directional signals. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight among investors with increasing fears regarding the overall global economic environment. Market sentiment has become fearful as the specter of a possible trade war discourages risk appetite, and investors are keeping a sharp eye on political and economic happenings. In such a setup, the Euro tends to get exposed to overall market movements, particularly when the world is experiencing heightened uncertainty. At the start of the week, market players are keeping an eye on developments that may influence the overall financial environment and currency fluctuations. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Investors are also anticipating major economic data releases from Europe, including Germany’s Industrial Production numbers and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. These reports will give new information about the state of the European economy and can impact investor sentiment. With volatility likely to continue, market participants are still paying close attention to macroeconomic variables and geopolitical events that can influence the direction of major currency pairs like EUR/USD in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has a moderately bullish bias as it remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), showing underlying support. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 70 level signals overbought, and therefore, the pair might experience resistance in further extending its rise without a retracement pullback. The psychological barrier at 1.0900 continues to be the major obstacle, and a decisive breach above here could set the stage for more gains. Conversely, if the selling gathers pace, the support levels will be monitored to resist a deeper pullback. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to break through the near-term resistance at 1.0900, it might indicate fresh bullish strength in the pair. A successful break might lead the way towards 1.0936, a recent swing high, and then the psychological level at 1.1000. Strong buying interest and positive economic news from the Eurozone might also sustain this upward move, prompting traders to position for higher levels in the near term. Conversely, if the pair is unable to sustain its current levels and comes under mounting selling pressure, it may move towards the initial support level of 1.0712. A fall below this level can initiate a more severe correction towards the 100-day EMA of 1.0544, with additional weakness potentially pulling the pair down to 1.0360. Any disappointing economic data or heightened global risk aversion could accelerate the downside move, weakening the Euro further against the US Dollar.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Approaches Four-Month Highs: Market Forces, Fed Rate Bets, and ECB Policy Changes

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  • March 7, 2025
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EUR/USD is robust above 1.0800, approaching a four-month high as the US Dollar dips with declining Treasury yields and increased hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates for the fifth time in a row, with President Christine Lagarde cautioning against downside risks to economic growth. In the meantime, US employment data indicated a drop in Initial Jobless Claims, while Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are likely to indicate a modest recovery in job additions. Global trade tensions continue, with Canada postponing tariffs on US imports and President Trump exempting Mexico and Canada from his planned duties. In spite of market expectations for additional rate cuts, sustained US and EU inflation continues to hamper central banks’ flexibility to ease monetary policy aggressively. KEY LOOKOUTS                                                                   • The market is poised for aggressive Fed rate cuts, but sustained US inflation may reduce the Fed’s flexibility to loosen monetary policy. • The fifth straight rate cut by the ECB indicates worries over economic stability, with President Lagarde warning of risks to growth on the downside. • Beating jobless claims numbers and a projected NFP bounce back may impact the strength of USD and affect EUR/USD prices. • Uncertainty created by Canada’s retaliatory tariffs and President Trump’s trade policy can impact market mood and risk appetite. EUR/USD remains trading at four-month highs as US Dollar weakness gains momentum following hopes of drastic Fed rate reductions. Still, the fact that both US and EU experience stubborn inflation might keep central banks from further relaxing monetary policy. The fifth successive ECB rate reduction confirms economic stability fears, as President Christine Lagarde has already signaled concerns over risks to growth. Meanwhile, US job data, including lower-than-expected jobless claims and a projected NFP rebound, adds to market uncertainty. Additionally, global trade tensions remain a key factor, with Canada postponing tariffs and President Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian goods under the USMCA shaping investor sentiment. EUR/USD stays close to four-month highs as the US Dollar loses strength in anticipation of higher Fed rate cuts. The ECB’s fifth straight rate cut reflects economic worries, while sustained inflation caps further policy relaxation. International trade tensions and US employment data continue to dominate markets. • The pair remains firm above 1.0800 as supported by a softer US Dollar. • Markets are expecting aggressive Fed rate cuts, but sustained inflation could cap policy relaxation. • The ECB reduced rates for the fifth straight time, pointing to economic worries. • ECB Chief Christine Lagarde warned that threats to economic growth are still biased to the downside. • Initial Unemployment Claims fell, with NFP set to report a small rebound in job growth. • Canada delayed imposing tariffs on US imports, while Trump excluded Mexico and Canada from his suggested tariffs. • Traders balance international trade policies, economic statistics, and inflation trends to determine the next EUR/USD direction. The EUR/USD currency pair is still the point of focus for international markets with economic policies and trade news dictating investor opinions. The latest move by the European Central Bank to lower interest rates was driven by fear over economic stability, with President Christine Lagarde pointing out the threats of diminished growth. At the same time, in the US, monetary policy debate continues to be focused on the Federal Reserve’s strategy in addressing inflation and economic growth. The policymakers continue to weigh the extent to which global uncertainties, such as trade tensions and employment trends, could shape future actions. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical developments and international trade agreements have an important influence on market confidence. Canada’s postponement of tariffs on US products and President Trump’s exclusion of Mexican and Canadian products from planned duties reflect the intricacies of international trade relations. While countries grapple with these issues, companies and investors continue to look at long-term plans for stability and expansion. Economic changes, regulatory reforms, and global cooperation will be the determining factors in the financial environment over the next few months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD remains trading above the 1.0800 level, with bullish pressure close to its four-month highs. The pair’s action indicates solid support at 1.0780, while resistance is still at 1.0850, the March 7 high. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate that the pair is trading in a neutral-to-overbought range, which can signal consolidation or a breakout attempt. Moving averages indicate ongoing upward momentum, with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs concurring in a bullish crossover. But a resolute break above 1.0850 may set the stage for additional advances, while a fall below 1.0780 may portend a near-term pullback. FORECAST As long as market sentiment remains positive towards risk assets and the US Dollar continues to decline on expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts, EUR/USD may continue its rally. A sustained break above the 1.0850 resistance level may set the stage for additional gains, potentially towards the 1.0900-1.0950 area. Moreover, if the European Central Bank indicates a solid economic outlook in spite of recent rate cuts, optimism about the Euro may increase, which will help sustain bullish momentum. Conversely, if inflationary pressures in the US continue to push the Federal Reserve to be more conservative in rate cuts, the US Dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on EUR/USD lower. A fall below the critical support level of 1.0780 may lead to a pullback to 1.0720 or even 1.0680. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, trade wars, or poorer-than-anticipated economic reports from the Eurozone may put downward pressure on the Euro and make it more probable for a downward revision in the pair.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Firm in Face of German Debt Reforms and ECB Rate Decision: Market Analysis and Key Drivers

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  • March 6, 2025
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EUR/USD stays firm at the 1.0800 level as investors await the highly expected interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% on the cards. Market mood is influenced by Germany’s mooted 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which may affect inflation and economic growth. In the meantime, US President Trump’s temporary easing of car tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated fears of a trade war, with the result that the US Dollar has weakened. Soft US private jobs data have also raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June. Now, investors wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks and future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases to guide the markets further. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank is likely to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, impacting EUR/USD price action and investor sentiment. • Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and extended borrowing capacity may affect inflation expectations and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reduced trade tensions, but possible tariffs on German cars continue to be a major risk. • Soft US private hiring data have fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Fed, which makes the release of Friday’s NFP a highly market-moving event. EUR/USD continues to be a hot topic for traders as significant economic and policy events are played out. The ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% has the potential to influence future monetary policy, while Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In addition, President Trump of the US has temporarily softened auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which has softened trade tensions but leaves uncertainty over possible tariffs on German automobiles. Furthermore, disappointing US private employment data have also spurred hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and thus, coming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release will be a pivotal driver in establishing the direction of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0800 as the market looks to the ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate reduction and Christine Lagarde’s comments. Germany’s infrastructure fund and US trade policy contribute to the uncertainty, while soft US jobs data drives speculation of a June Fed rate cut. • The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, influencing EUR/USD action. • A planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and eased borrowing ceilings could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico softens trade tensions, but there is still uncertainty regarding possible tariffs on German cars. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day in a row, trading around 104.00, its lowest since four months ago. • Soft private sector employment growth has increased hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate reduction, impacting USD strength. • The pair is still robust above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI > 60, which means bullish momentum. • Market participants are monitoring the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report closely for more cues on the direction of Fed monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair remains steady as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid Germany’s proposed 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which aims to boost economic growth and could influence inflation in the Eurozone. Traders are eagerly waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision remarks for signals about future policy guidance and the overall economic landscape. Meanwhile, market sentiments are still under pressure due to fears of possible US tariffs on European products, especially German cars. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade actions and economic indicators continue to be major drivers of the forex market. US President Donald Trump’s temporary easing of automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated trade tensions, but uncertainty persists with possible tariffs on European goods. Separately, soft US private jobs data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Investors now await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for additional insight into the health of the US labor market. Any meaningful changes in economic statistics or monetary policy decisions made by the Fed or ECB can influence currency trends in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is well placed around the 1.0800 mark, demonstrating bullish sentiment on the charts. The pair has convincingly broken above the December 6 high of 1.0630, further strengthening an uptrend. It is still trading in excess of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0640, marking long-term robustness. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, a sign of extended buying pressure. On the down side, January 27’s high of 1.0533 is the critical support area, and the subsequent resistance point for Euro bulls is the November 6 high of 1.0937. In general, the technical perspective remains bullish for additional gains unless substantial bearish drivers arise. FORECAST EUR/USD might enjoy additional strength if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a prudent stance even with the anticipated rate reduction. If ECB President Christine Lagarde provides cues of a diminished rate-cut pace in the future or hints at optimism regarding Eurozone economic rebound, the Euro can pick up momentum. Also, Germany’s planned infrastructure fund would help boost investor sentiment about the region’s growth prospects. A softer US Dollar, based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, might also sustain EUR/USD’s rally. In case the pair convincingly crosses above the 1.0937 resistance mark, it would test higher levels in the future sessions. EUR/USD risks facing downward pressures if the ECB turns more dovish, reflecting further aggressive rate cuts. Any weakness in the Eurozone economics, notably in

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rises on Hopes of Ukraine Peace, but ECB Policy and Tariff War Risks Lurk

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  • March 4, 2025
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EUR/USD keeps rising towards the 1.0500 level on hopes of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Yet, the pair’s rally is capped by increased global risk aversion amid heightened trade tensions. US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, and Canada and China have responded with retaliatory actions. Moreover, the US has suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, further adding to geopolitical volatility. In the meantime, the Euro can expect additional pressure before the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, when a widely anticipated rate cut can weigh on the currency. Sidelined US economic data have also added to market uncertainty, leaving traders hesitant to bet on the near-term outlook of the Euro. KEY LOOKOUTS • Optimism regarding a formal Ukraine peace plan is supportive of EUR/USD, but uncertainty prevails as the US suspends military aid to Ukraine. • Trump’s China tariff increases and possible retaliatory actions by Canada and China may spark risk aversion, capping the Euro’s upside potential. • The European Central Bank will likely reduce rates again, which may put pressure on the Euro and affect EUR/USD’s short-term direction. • Disagreement on US manufacturing data contributes to market uncertainty, making investors wary of the Federal Reserve’s next step and dollar strength. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight as hopes for a Ukraine peace agreement offer support, but rising global trade tensions and policy risks cap further advances. The US has suspended all military aid to Ukraine at the direction of President Trump, contributing to geopolitical uncertainty. While Trump’s move to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% has prompted threat of retaliation from Canada and China, it is adding to risk aversion. The European Central Bank meeting also looms as a major trigger, with an expected rate cut that can depreciate the Euro. Also, conflicting US economic data have put investors in confusion regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, which is keeping the currency market nervous. EUR/USD rises on optimism for Ukraine peace agreement but tests resistance as global risk aversion increases. A further escalation in US-China trade tensions and the anticipated ECB rate cut may act as a dampener for the Euro. Heterogeneous US economic data brings more uncertainty to the table, maintaining market mood cautious. • The pair extends its rally at 1.0500 with support from hope for a Ukraine peace agreement. • The US suspended all military aid to Ukraine, further fuelling world tensions and market conservatism. • Trump increases tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, inviting retaliatory threats from Canada and China, elevating risk aversion. • The European Central Bank will likely lower the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps, possibly putting pressure on the Euro. • Conflicting US economic indicators, such as a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI and a firmer S&P Global PMI, contribute to investor uncertainty. • Risk sentiment and policy issues may limit further gains in the Euro despite recent rallies. • Ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path keeps traders on their toes, influencing EUR/USD price action. Global markets are in suspense as geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts define the economic environment. Hopes for a formal Ukraine peace agreement have arisen, with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy negotiating a plan to be presented to the US. However, doubts intensified as the US government suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, fuelling fears over long-term stability in the region. Meanwhile, trade tensions between economies increased, with President Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China strongly opposing, with possible retaliatory measures from Canada. These events underscore the increasing polarization in global relations, impacting investor sentiment and economic policies across the globe. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the economic side, policymakers and market players are keeping a close eye on the European Central Bank’s next meeting, where a possible rate cut is anticipated. Such monetary policy has a significant impact on financial planning and world economic growth. In the US, meanwhile, conflicting economic data have contributed to the uncertainty, with varying indicators of manufacturing performance capturing the difficulty of sustaining stability in a volatile environment. While global economies ride this ride, companies and governments have to be flexible to changing economic circumstances and global policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is stuck around 1.0500, with risk aversion cappping its upside. The pair has been on the verge of consolidation, with market players keenly observing key resistances and supports for signs of a breakout. Moving averages are bearish, while momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicative of indecisiveness in market sentiment. A break above near-term resistance could set the stage for additional gains, while inability to maintain key support levels could prompt a pullback. Technical signals overall point to EUR/USD being in a precarious area, waiting for a more robust catalyst for directional momentum. FORECAST EUR/USD may rise further if sentiment towards the Ukraine peace agreement gets a boost, which would enhance market risk appetite. A diplomatic settlement would alleviate geopolitical risk, potentially strengthening the Euro. Also, if economic statistics from the Eurozone are stronger than anticipated or the European Central Bank (ECB) is less dovish than anticipated, the pair could get further backing. Any US dollar weakness caused by changing Federal Reserve policy or weaker economic data would also provide space for a move upwards. A move above major resistance levels might drive the pair to higher price ranges in the near future. EUR/USD is subject to several downside threats that would limit its momentum. Increased risk aversion as a result of rising trade tensions—like Trump’s raised tariffs on China and possible retaliations from Canada and China—may support the US dollar, which would bear down on the Euro. If the ECB acts on a highly anticipated rate cut or hints at more monetary easing, the Euro could fall as well. Any better-than-expected US economic data would be supportive of the dollar’s advance, which would see the pair fall. A breakdown of crucial support levels could lead to more losses, leaving

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