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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats: Uncertainty Looms Over Global Trade

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  • February 10, 2025
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EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 after an initial dip, but market uncertainty remains as investors react to US President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. The Euro faces additional pressure from potential trade tensions with the US and concerns over the ECB’s ability to support inflation. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell can drive monetary policy expectations. On the technical side, EUR/USD seems to have difficulty around resistance at 1.0500. More importantly, a strong support line remains at 1.0177 that could make or break the pair’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rekindled fears of the trade war on steel and aluminum imports at 25% tariffs have impacted the global markets and the stability of the Euro. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence EUR/USD movements and market sentiment. • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony may provide crucial insights into the US central bank’s interest rate stance, affecting the USD’s strength. • EUR/USD faces strong resistance near 1.0500, while key support at 1.0177 remains critical for determining the pair’s next directional move. EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300, but uncertainty lingers as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fuel trade war fears. Investors remain cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, both of which could influence monetary policy expectations. The Euro faces additional pressure from trade tensions with the US and weak inflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 shaping its next directional move. EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 despite uncertainty from Trump’s tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. Investors await ECB Lagarde’s speech and Fed Powell’s testimony for monetary policy cues. The pair faces resistance at 1.0500, while key support lies at 1.0177. • The pair recovers above 1.0300 despite initial weakness driven by renewed US tariff fears. • Proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raise concerns over global trade tensions and impact market sentiment. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and economic outlook. • The Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony before Congress may provide crucial signals on future interest rate decisions. • The US Dollar Index wobbles around 108.20, maintaining strength on global trade war fears. •The Euro faces additional strain from potential reciprocal tariffs and weaker-than-expected inflation levels. • EUR/USD struggles near 1.0500 resistance, while key support at 1.0177 remains crucial for the pair’s next move. EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session following a weak open as renewed fears over US President Trump’s 25% proposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum reignite the specter of a global trade war and weigh on the market sentiment that increases demand for safe-haven assets. The investors are closely following ECB President Christine Lagarde speech at the European Parliament and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, which could affect the expectations over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays strong near 108.20 due to still uncertain global markets. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Trade tensions, softer inflation than expected in the Eurozone, and the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the ECB are weighing on EUR/USD. The Euro remains vulnerable as economic contraction risks persist, and analysts warn that the US tariff measures could further hurt the European economy. Technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 playing a crucial role in determining the next directional move. Traders will also look to US CPI data, which will be released later this week, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and the US Dollar’s strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around 1.0300, and resistance is located near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, while support is found at 1.0177. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40-60 range, showing a neutral trend with no clear directional momentum. A break above 1.0500 could trigger further gains, while a decline below 1.0177 may push the pair towards 1.0100. Market participants are watching upcoming economic events for clues on future movements, with the pair likely to stay range-bound unless a strong catalyst emerges. FORECAST EUR/USD has the potential to rise if it manages to break above the 50-day EMA at 1.0436, with the next resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500. A decisive push above this region would lead to further strides towards 1.0600, lifted by enhancing Eurozone economic performance data or more dovish US Federal Reserve statements. Another boost comes in case ECB President Christine Lagarde exudes confidence in the current stability of the Eurozone’s economy or gives hints of more tempered rate cuts that might make the Euro regain its strength. A weaker US Dollar, due to either lower-than-expected US inflation data or dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will add further fuel to the upside in EUR/USD. Downside risks include a failure for EUR/USD to hold above 1.0300, where it could face immediate support at 1.0177 (January 13 low) and further declines toward the critical 1.0100 level. A break below 1.0100 could see a test of parity (1.0000) as renewed global trade war fears, following Trump’s tariff threats or worsening Eurozone economic conditions, weigh on the pair. Deeper losses for EUR/USD could be seen if the ECB turns dovish and cuts rates aggressively in response to weak inflation or if the US Dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed comments. Further, geopolitical uncertainty or adverse economic surprise from the Eurozone might hasten the bearish thrust.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fails to Stay Above 1.0500 as US Dollar Bounces Back and Geopolitical Tensions Mount

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  • January 27, 2025
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EUR/USD trades below 1.0500 in the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar Index bounces back from its monthly low. The technical perspective for the pair is bullish, with resistance levels at 1.0500-1.0510 and 1.0540, while key support lies at 1.0440 and further down at 1.0400. Market sentiment is still driven by geopolitics, such as US President Trump’s comments regarding trade tariffs with China and the EU, which might affect the Euro’s strength. Also, market movements are going to be dictated by PMI data from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US, and stronger prints may support the Euro, while weak prints may put pressure on the US Dollar. KEY LOOKOUTS • Major resistance for EUR/USD lies around 1.0500-1.0510 (Fibonacci 78.6%) and 1.0540. Key support to watch out for is at 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8%) and 1.0400 (Fibonacci 50%). A breach above or below these resistance and support levels will set the course for the next move. • The rebound in the US Dollar Index from lows of 107.22 might cap the EUR/USD rally. Further movements in USD strength should be monitored to determine its short-term market impact. • Comments by US President Trump on tariffs imposed on China and the EU will continue to remain a major risk. Any hints of increased trade tension may push down the Euro and change the trend in EUR/USD. • Preliminary PMI data from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US this week will play a crucial role. Better than expected prints can be supportive for the Euro while weak US PMI data might attract renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.0500 as the US Dollar Index starts to recover off its worst monthly low ever, further cementing a cautious market tone. With some bullish bias, resistances lie at 1.0500-1.0510 and 1.0540, but its critical supports are located at 1.0440 and 1.0400. Uncertainty stemming from US President Trump’s statements regarding tariffs and trade with the EU and China clouds the Euro, affecting its strength. Meanwhile, the market is also looking forward to the preliminary PMI data from Germany, Eurozone, and US, which will guide EUR/USD. Higher Eurozone PMIs will support this pair, whereas disappointing US PMI data can weigh on the US Dollar. EUR/USD struggles below 1.0500 as the US Dollar Index recovers from monthly lows. Key resistance lies at 1.0500-1.0510, while support is at 1.0440. Upcoming PMI data from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US will likely shape the pair’s next move. • The US Dollar Index rebounds from monthly lows, pressuring EUR/USD below 1.0500. • Key resistance zones are at 1.0500-1.0510 (Fibonacci 78.6%) and 1.0540. • Key support is at 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8%) and 1.0400 (Fibonacci 50%). • US President Trump’s remarks on trade tariffs with the EU and China are also creating uncertainty in the market and affecting the Euro’s strength. • The technical view is biased bullish, allowing for further appreciation of EUR/USD before the pair reaches overbought. • Preliminary PMI data from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US may impact EUR/USD, with positive Eurozone PMI data lifting the pair. • Geopolitical news and economic statistics are likely to be the focus of near-term price action in EUR/USD. EUR/USD is still under pressure, trading below 1.0500 during the Asian session as the US Dollar Index recovers from its monthly low near 107.22. The technical outlook for the pair is bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart approaching overbought territory. Key resistance to monitor will be 1.0500-1.0510, which aligns with the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level, and 1.0540. Support wise, the hourly key levels include 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% level) and 1.0400 (Fibonacci 50% retracement), and a continuation of the break here will weaken the bullish trend. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty, as US President Trump’s comments on tariff trade kept the market edgy. Any further trade tensions with the EU or China will pressure the Euro, and any economic data coming out in the near term will be closely watched for direction. Preliminary PMI reports from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US are expected to play a significant role, with better-than-expected Eurozone data potentially supporting EUR/USD, and weaker US PMI figures possibly weighing on the US Dollar. As the market moves through these factors, technical and fundamental drivers are closely watched for the pair’s next move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still presented with a bullish bias as it trades below 1.0500. The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart has reached the overbought levels and is likely to go up some more before correcting. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.0500-1.0510, corresponding to the Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the recent uptrend, with higher targets at 1.0540 and 1.0600. Support on the downside would come at a break below the critical support at 1.0440, corresponding to the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and the 50-day SMA, followed by subsequent supports at 1.0400 and 1.0350. These will decide the direction for the next move in the pair. FORECAST EUR/USD remains bullish as it stabilizes near major resistance. A clean breakout above 1.0500-1.0510, supported by the Fibonacci 78.6% level, could make way for further strength. Should the pair maintain the impetus, subsequent targets would be at 1.0540 and then 1.0600, the start of the previous downtrend. The technical indicators do suggest some room on the upside before a possible correction, and those are such as the RSI getting close to overbought territory on the 4-hour chart. Even on the economic front, positive news in the form of stronger-than-expected PMI figures in the Eurozone will add more steam to the pair’s upward journey. On the flip side, a failure to stay above the critical support at 1.0440, which coincides with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and the 50-day SMA, could result in a bearish reversal. Further retreat could bring the pair to the next important supports at 1.0400 (Fibonacci 50%) and 1.0350 (Fibonacci 38.2%). Escalating uncertainty from geopolitical tensions or weaker Eurozone

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls to Less Than 1.0300 on Prospect of ECB Rate Cut

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  • January 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD trades at the edge of 1.0290, weakened by prospects for gentle rate cuts by the ECB and the strength of the US Dollar that is further helped by mixed US economic reports and dovish messages from the Fed. However, interim resistance for the EUR/USD remains at 1.0354 and 1.0434 while key supports lie at 1.0176 and at parity at 1.0000, representing an ongoing downtrend below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. The ECB continues to focus on growth in a rising inflationary environment, and the Fed will remain cautious with respect to adjustments in rates amid growing inflationary concerns and fiscal uncertainty. Fresh direction will be given by upcoming eurozone inflation and current account data, as EUR/USD remains in a difficult economic and geopolitical scenario. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Euro continues to see pressure due to the European Central Bank’s slow rate cuts; inflation dynamics persist, and even economic growth in the region comes under question. • The mixed US economic figures, Fed policies, and rumors of trade tariff implications under an administration led by President-elect Donald Trump continue favoring the Dollar. • Pivotal Support is at 1.0176, the resistance at 1.0354 and at 1.0434 and the bearish trend continues unabated below 200-day SMA at 1.0779. • Eurozone inflation and current account figures for January 17 will be an important factor that will decide EUR/USD prices in the short-term. EUR/USD continues its downward pressure, trading near the 1.0290 handle, weighed on by the market’s expectation for gradual ECB cuts, as the euro faces two contrasting monetary policies and a strength US Dollar. Technical levels indicate strong support at 1.0176 and parity at 1.0000, while resistance is seen at 1.0354 and 1.0434, and the overall bearish trend continues to hold below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. Eurozone inflation and current account data on January 17 will be important in giving the pair a fresh push. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties related to US trade tariffs and cautious stances by both the Fed and ECB add weight to the downtrend of this pair. EUR/USD fails to break above 1.0300 as it is pressured further by the ECB’s cautious approach to rate cut and strong dynamics of the US Dollar. EUR/USD pairs await eurozone inflation data to take fresh market cues. EUR/USD falls back to 1.0290, pressured further by monetary policy expectations and the stronger US Dollar. • Expected gradual cuts from the European Central Bank pressure the euro. • The Fed is conservative about easing and remains cautious with inflation, making the US Dollar more likely. • Levels to watch: Support 1.0176 and parity 1.0000 • Resistance at 1.0354, 1.0434, and the 200-day SMA at 1.0779 • Eurozone inflation and current account figures for January 17 are major market sentiment gauges. • Uncertainties regarding US trade tariffs also put a strain on the euro. EUR/USD has stayed under pressure lately, trading at 1.0290 while contrasting monetary policies between the ECB and Fed have been bearing down on the euro. Gradual rate cuts anticipated by the ECB to stimulate growth in the economy have lowered the mood of investors, particularly given that inflation in the eurozone is moving closer to higher rates. Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps on reaping the benefits of cautious Fed signals and mixed US economic data that include poor retail sales and dovish comments from FOMC officials that are fueling rate adjustment speculation as modest. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradeView, Prepared By ELLYANA EUR/USD is currently holding at the support levels at 1.0176 and at parity 1.0000, whereas the resistance levels stand at 1.0354 and 1.0434, with the bigger bearish trend holding below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. Traders are closely watching eurozone inflation and current account figures due on January 17, which could provide fresh direction. Adding to the uncertainty are geopolitical risks, such as the potential reintroduction of US trade tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump, which may further strengthen the Greenback and keep the euro under pressure in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Currency majors – EUR/USD : Remains in a bearish trend while trading below the 200-day SMA at 1.0779. Downside levels of note include the YTD low at 1.0176, parity at 1.0000, with potentially further downsides to 0.9935 and 0.9730. Upwardly, immediate resistances stand at 1.0354 and 1.0434, with stronger resistances at 1.0506 (55-day SMA) and 1.0629 (peak into December). Momentum indicators mixed and giving a bearish bias since RSI near 41 can indicate range-bound activity, but ADX near 35 does support the uptick in bearish momentum, which will likely keep downside risks elevated for the pair. FORECAST EUR/USD maintains its supremacy for the short and medium term while the pair hovers below main resistance levels with the overall downward trend remaining unbroken below 200-day SMA at 1.0779. The near-term support could be seen in the form of 1.0176 as the YTD low, 1.0000 (parity level), and beyond at 0.9935 and 0.9730 if the sell pressure intensifies. Short-term relief will come in if the pair manages to move above the near-term resistance level of 1.0354 and 1.0434. It will need a higher break above 1.0506, the 55-day SMA, and 1.0629, the December high, but this will also see substantial selling on those levels. Overall, it will depend largely on ECB and Fed policy announcements as well as upcoming eurozone inflation and US economic data for the pair’s direction.

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