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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Major Resistance Levels and Market Trends In the Wake of Political Stability in Germany

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  • February 25, 2025
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EUR/USD is gaining momentum around 1.0470 in the Asian session on the back of renewed political stability in Germany following the election win of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance. Nevertheless, the pair is still bearish below the 100-period EMA, with major resistance at 1.0525-1.0530. A breakout above this level might trigger more gains towards 1.0630 and higher, while risks of a decline exist at 1.0400, with possible falls towards 1.0295 and 1.0210. Market sentiment is still cautious, with technical analysis indicating a mix of signals, making the 1.0500 level the key battleground for traders. KEY LOOKOUTS           • EUR/USD has key resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout potentially giving way to further gains towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The duo finds initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially taking it down to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish picture, while the RSI level of 55.50 indicates possible upside action. • The CDU/CSU election win in Germany boosts EUR sentiment, but investor attention is still on major technical levels and economic indicators for further direction. EUR/USD is still at a crucial point, trading around 1.0470, as the market weighs important technical and political considerations. The pair is under significant resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and a break higher could unlock the way to 1.0630 and 1.0777. Support on the downside is at 1.0400, with potential further losses towards 1.0295 and 1.0210 if selling gains momentum. The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish stance, while RSI at 55.50 indicates some upside potential. The CDU/CSU election win by Germany has also brought temporary stability to the Euro, but market sentiment is still wary, with the market closely observing economic data and global risk trends. EUR/USD remains close to 1.0470, with important resistance seen at 1.0525-1.0530 and support near 1.0400. The 100-period EMA remains bearish in its outlook, although the RSI indicates potential upside. Political stability in Germany favors the Euro but market sentiment is cautious. • EUR/USD is confronted by strong resistance near 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout having the potential to move the pair towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The pair meets initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially pushing to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish direction, limiting upside. • The 14-day RSI at 55.50 indicates probable upside momentum, subject to the ongoing bearish trend. • Germany’s CDU/CSU election success has brought temporary stability to the Euro, allowing for modest gains. • A breakdown below the lower band of 1.0295 could provoke further losses, with the upper band around 1.0530 serving as resistance. • Market participants are keeping a close eye on economic indicators and global risk factors for further guidance. EUR/USD currency pair is witnessing a change in market mood as political stability is back in Germany. The recent election win of the CDU/CSU coalition has allayed fears of extended political uncertainty, sending confidence in the Euro higher. Investors are now closely watching how this leadership transition will impact economic policies, trade relations, and fiscal strategies. With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, its political direction plays a crucial role in shaping the broader European financial landscape. The market remains attentive to upcoming policy decisions that could influence investor confidence and economic growth. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Outside of politics, trends in global economics and macroeconomic events still dictate EUR/USD direction. Inflation rates, central bank actions, and geopolitical tensions are still major determinants of market sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and economic releases will still be important variables in dictating the pair’s direction in the future. Foremost, ongoing debates on global trade, energy prices, and economic recovery after the pandemic provide another dimension of uncertainty. As investors ponder these issues, market players take a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating better clarity on both regional and world economic situations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a tentative area, as major indicators will determine its immediate direction. The pair is hovering below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supporting a bearish attitude. Yet, Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 55.50 indicates moderate bullish pressure, and hopes for a move higher still linger. The Bollinger Bands signal possible volatility, the higher band serving as resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and the lower band at 1.0295 acting as support. A clean break above resistance would initiate further advances, while below support would increase selling pressure. Traders are keeping close watch at these levels for confirmation on the direction of the next trend. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to cross above the crucial resistance area of 1.0525-1.0530, bullish pressure may intensify, driving the pair to even higher levels. A continued breakout above this range can draw new buying interest, likely propelling prices to 1.0630, a key level of resistance in December 2024. Still higher, a rally could continue to 1.0777, a level that was recently tested in August 2024. Improved market sentiment, better Eurozone economic statistics, or a more dovish bias from the U.S. Federal Reserve could still contribute to uptrend momentum in the pair. EUR/USD cannot stay above the 1.0400 psychological level support, and selling pressure may gain strength to cause more declines. Breaking below this psychological level may lay the ground for declines to the lower Bollinger Band at 1.0295, with an even deeper fall targeting 1.0210, the early February 2024 low. Bearishness can be triggered by more robust U.S. economic reports, a dovish Federal Reserve, or risk aversion across markets. In this situation, investors might rush to safe-haven assets, further stressing the Euro.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats: Uncertainty Looms Over Global Trade

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  • February 10, 2025
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EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 after an initial dip, but market uncertainty remains as investors react to US President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. The Euro faces additional pressure from potential trade tensions with the US and concerns over the ECB’s ability to support inflation. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell can drive monetary policy expectations. On the technical side, EUR/USD seems to have difficulty around resistance at 1.0500. More importantly, a strong support line remains at 1.0177 that could make or break the pair’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rekindled fears of the trade war on steel and aluminum imports at 25% tariffs have impacted the global markets and the stability of the Euro. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence EUR/USD movements and market sentiment. • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony may provide crucial insights into the US central bank’s interest rate stance, affecting the USD’s strength. • EUR/USD faces strong resistance near 1.0500, while key support at 1.0177 remains critical for determining the pair’s next directional move. EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300, but uncertainty lingers as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fuel trade war fears. Investors remain cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, both of which could influence monetary policy expectations. The Euro faces additional pressure from trade tensions with the US and weak inflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 shaping its next directional move. EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 despite uncertainty from Trump’s tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. Investors await ECB Lagarde’s speech and Fed Powell’s testimony for monetary policy cues. The pair faces resistance at 1.0500, while key support lies at 1.0177. • The pair recovers above 1.0300 despite initial weakness driven by renewed US tariff fears. • Proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raise concerns over global trade tensions and impact market sentiment. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and economic outlook. • The Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony before Congress may provide crucial signals on future interest rate decisions. • The US Dollar Index wobbles around 108.20, maintaining strength on global trade war fears. •The Euro faces additional strain from potential reciprocal tariffs and weaker-than-expected inflation levels. • EUR/USD struggles near 1.0500 resistance, while key support at 1.0177 remains crucial for the pair’s next move. EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session following a weak open as renewed fears over US President Trump’s 25% proposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum reignite the specter of a global trade war and weigh on the market sentiment that increases demand for safe-haven assets. The investors are closely following ECB President Christine Lagarde speech at the European Parliament and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, which could affect the expectations over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays strong near 108.20 due to still uncertain global markets. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Trade tensions, softer inflation than expected in the Eurozone, and the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the ECB are weighing on EUR/USD. The Euro remains vulnerable as economic contraction risks persist, and analysts warn that the US tariff measures could further hurt the European economy. Technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 playing a crucial role in determining the next directional move. Traders will also look to US CPI data, which will be released later this week, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and the US Dollar’s strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around 1.0300, and resistance is located near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, while support is found at 1.0177. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40-60 range, showing a neutral trend with no clear directional momentum. A break above 1.0500 could trigger further gains, while a decline below 1.0177 may push the pair towards 1.0100. Market participants are watching upcoming economic events for clues on future movements, with the pair likely to stay range-bound unless a strong catalyst emerges. FORECAST EUR/USD has the potential to rise if it manages to break above the 50-day EMA at 1.0436, with the next resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500. A decisive push above this region would lead to further strides towards 1.0600, lifted by enhancing Eurozone economic performance data or more dovish US Federal Reserve statements. Another boost comes in case ECB President Christine Lagarde exudes confidence in the current stability of the Eurozone’s economy or gives hints of more tempered rate cuts that might make the Euro regain its strength. A weaker US Dollar, due to either lower-than-expected US inflation data or dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will add further fuel to the upside in EUR/USD. Downside risks include a failure for EUR/USD to hold above 1.0300, where it could face immediate support at 1.0177 (January 13 low) and further declines toward the critical 1.0100 level. A break below 1.0100 could see a test of parity (1.0000) as renewed global trade war fears, following Trump’s tariff threats or worsening Eurozone economic conditions, weigh on the pair. Deeper losses for EUR/USD could be seen if the ECB turns dovish and cuts rates aggressively in response to weak inflation or if the US Dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed comments. Further, geopolitical uncertainty or adverse economic surprise from the Eurozone might hasten the bearish thrust.

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