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EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1750 as Dollar Rallies on Fed Indications and French Protest

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  • September 20, 2025
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EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 on Friday as the US Dollar bounced off three-year lows, fueled by increasing Treasury yields and reserve Federal Reserve officials’ dovish rhetoric after this week’s 25 bps cut in interest rates. Whereas San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari indicated a balanced prognosis, Governor Stephen Miran favored more easing, pointing to internal divergence. Meanwhile, political turmoil in France, with nationwide protests against planned cuts in spending, put pressure on the Euro. With a thin economic docket this week, investors now set their sights on future US data releases, such as PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE. KEY LOOKOUTS • Conflicting opinions by Daly, Kashkari, and Miran continue to influence expectations for upcoming rate cuts. • Nationwide demonstrations against spending reductions pressure the Euro and contribute to political risks in the region. • The major releases such as Flash PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and Core PCE inflation will be steering market sentiment next week. • Short-term direction remains key with EUR/USD support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800/1.1850. EUR/USD fell back below 1.1750 as the US Dollar rallied on the strength of rising Treasury yields and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials in the wake of the recent 25 bps rate cut. While Fed members Daly and Kashkari kept a balanced tone, Governor Miran hinted that further easing might be warranted, which created market uncertainty. On the other hand, political tensions in France, where widespread protests broke out over suggested spending reductions, continued to weaken the Euro. With scarce data this week, speculators are looking ahead to next’s US economic reports, including PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and the Core PCE inflation measure, for new direction. EUR/USD declined below 1.1750 after the US Dollar recovered on higher Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments. Political tension in France put additional pressure on the Euro, and markets now look to major US releases including GDP and Core PCE for new impetus. • EUR/USD fell 0.32% to 1.1747 as the US Dollar recovered from three-year lows. • Higher US Treasury yields underpinned the Greenback later in the week. • Fed officials sent out conflicting signals — Daly tilted dovish, Kashkari remained neutral, and Miran signaled further easing. • Protests in France against proposed spending reductions pushed the Euro and introduced political risk. • US Jobless Claims dropped to 231K, ahead of estimates, and the Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 23.2. • Futures markets expect a 90% probability of yet another Fed rate cut this month and close to 80% for December. • The important technical levels are support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800–1.1850, while RSI still supports the overall uptrend. The Euro came under pressure against the US Dollar as political unrest in France and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials influenced market sentiment. Demonstrations in major French cities underscored popular resistance against planned spending cuts, giving President Emmanuel Macron and his newly elected Prime Minister fresh challenges. This political unrest created another level of uncertainty for the Euro, already burdened by external factors. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView To the upside, the Dollar found support on the US side from firmer Treasury yields and recent comments from Fed officials after a 25 bps rate cut. Although Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari found a balanced tone, Governor Stephen Miran reaffirmed his liking for more aggressive easing, highlighting splits in the Fed. With the calendar in the week looking fairly light, focus is shifting to coming US economic announcements like PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and Core PCE that will give better insight into the economic direction and policy trajectory. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 following an evening star candlestick pattern formation, indicating deteriorating momentum for the Euro. Bears are looking to 1.1700 as the next level of support, with a deeper sell-off possibly revealing the September 11 low at 1.1659 and the 100-day SMA around 1.1560–1.1574. On the upside, a reversal above 1.1800 could set the stage for 1.1850 and eventually the year-to-date high at 1.1918, while the RSI still underpins the larger-picture bullish bias by remaining below overbought. FORECAST If EUR/USD can maintain its position above the 1.1700 support and draw in new buying, the pair may recover momentum towards 1.1800. A move above this level would set the stage for additional gains towards 1.1850, with potential to test the year-to-date high at 1.1918. US data weakness and or a relaxation of political tensions in Europe may be catalysts for this rally. On the downside, persistent pressure from higher US Treasury yields and continued French political turmoil could drive EUR/USD lower. A strong breakdown below 1.1700 could reveal the September 11 low at 1.1659, with additional bears risks reaching the 100-day SMA and the August swing low in the 1.1560–1.1574 area. Bigger-than-anticipated US data would most likely speed this bearish trend.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies as Traders Wait for US Jobs Data and Services PMI for Fed Policy Hints

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  • September 4, 2025
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EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls as the primary driver for Fed policy expectations. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and soft US JOLTS job openings have fueled speculation of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, now priced at almost 97%. Traders, however, are reluctant to take large positions, fearing upside surprises in future labor market reports, leaving the Euro exposed within its established range of support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. KEY LOOKOUTS • The ADP Employment Change and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be pivotal in determining expectations for a September Fed rate cut. • Disappointing July retail sales reflect sluggish consumption, weighing on Euro sentiment. • Market expectations of a September rate cut jumped to 97%, with additional cuts possible in the coming months. • Support is at 1.1610–1.1590, while resistance is at 1.1680–1.1735, keeping EUR/USD stuck within its recent range. The EUR/USD pair is trading steady around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls set to be the primary driver for near-term direction. Weak Eurozone retail sales data put pressure on the Euro, while soft US labor market signals and dovish Fed comments have boosted expectations of a September rate cut. Despite easing debt concerns and falling bond yields, traders are reluctant to take large bets until more clarity is provided by upcoming US data, leaving the pair fluctuating within its recent support and resistance levels. EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1650 as markets wait for US jobs and services data for Fed policy hints. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and softer US labor signals keep the pair range-bound, with traders cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • EUR/USD trades around 1.1650 ahead of the US session, without clear direction. •  Eurozone retail sales declined 0.5% in July, deeper than anticipated, weighing on the Euro. • US JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest in almost a year, indicating labor market weakness. • Fed rate cut expectations jumped to 97% for September, driven by weak economic data and dovish Fed rhetoric. • ADP Employment Change forecast at 65K, down from July’s 104K, raising job creation concerns. • ISM Services PMI forecast at 51.0, indicating modest improvement in US service sector activity. • Technical range continues with support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. The Euro is finding it difficult to gain traction as investors continue to focus on upcoming US economic data releases that are likely to offer clearer signals on Federal Reserve policy. A sharper-than-anticipated fall in Eurozone retail sales has weighed on sentiment, with weak consumer demand across the region. Meanwhile, softer US labor market signals, including a fall in job openings to the lowest level in almost a year, have supported expectations of Fed easing. Market participants are closely monitoring the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data, while Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be the most influential event for the week. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Broader market sentiment has stabilized following recent worries about global debt levels, with easing bond yields offering some comfort to investors. Fed officials have signaled the possibility of rate cuts beginning as early as September, which has supported bets on a more accommodative stance in the coming months. However, traders are still cautious, shying away from large positions until there is more clarity from the US jobs data. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD is likely to remain stable, with investor attention firmly on economic releases that could redefine expectations for monetary policy in the US and Europe. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to be contained within a well-defined range, without a decisive breakout. Immediate support is at 1.1610, with a firmer floor between 1.1575 and 1.1590, an area that has consistently stopped bearish advances in recent weeks. A deeper fall could test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1565, followed by the August low around 1.1530. On the upside, resistance is lined up at 1.1682, with further hurdles at the descending trendline around 1.1725 and the 1.1735 zone, which capped gains several times in August and early September. Until a clear move above these levels is made, the pair is likely to continue consolidating within its established limits. FORECAST If US labor data in the coming days confirms a sharper slowdown in employment, EUR/USD could gain traction as markets fully price in a September Fed rate cut. Softer-than-anticipated ADP or Nonfarm Payrolls reports would weaken the Dollar, paving the way for a recovery towards 1.1680 initially. A sustained break above this level could encourage further bullish momentum towards the descending trendline around 1.1725–1.1735, where firmer resistance lies. Alternatively, a stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report could dampen rate-cut expectations, strengthening the Dollar and putting pressure on the Euro. In that event, EUR/USD may slide towards the 1.1610 area, with a break below exposing the key support zone at 1.1575–1.1590. If selling gathers pace, further downside could target the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1565 and eventually the August low around 1.1530.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Maintains Strength Above 1.1660 as US PCE Figures Confirm Fed Rate Cut Bets

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  • August 29, 2025
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EUR/USD remained firm above 1.1660 on Friday following the most recent US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which was in line with forecasts and indicated continued inflation and strong consumer spending. Core PCE increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, its highest level since February, while headline PCE advanced 0.2% on the month and remained at 2.6% year-on-year. Better-than-anticipated consumer spending and stable income growth upheld the US Dollar, although subdued market response prevented the pair from consolidating in recent areas. EUR/USD, despite near-term pressures, is still poised to close out August with about 2% monthly appreciation, as hopes for a September interest rate cut cap the Greenback’s gains. KEY LOOKOUTS • Core PCE climbed 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, highest annual rate since February. • Personal expenditure surged 0.5% in July, topping projections, while earnings increased 0.4%. • The US Dollar Index regained traction around 98.00, keeping EUR/USD at 1.1660. • Sticky inflation and decelerating hiring underpin expectations of a 25 bps Fed rate reduction in September. EUR/USD stabilized above 1.1660 on Friday after latest US PCE inflation data met expectations, highlighting persistent price pressures and robust consumer demand. Core PCE advanced 0.3% on the month and 2.9% on the year, the highest since February, while headline PCE climbed 0.2% on the month but remained unchanged at 2.6% on the year. Personal income and consumption growth also beat forecasts, which favored the US Dollar, though the market response was subdued. With inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target and hiring momentum weakening, prospects for a September rate cut still put a lid on the Greenback’s rally, keeping EUR/USD in consolidation mode. EUR/USD remained flat above 1.1660 as US PCE inflation came in line with expectations, with core prices increasing 2.9% year-on-year. Solid consumer spending benefited the US Dollar, but hopes for a September Fed rate cut kept EUR/USD in consolidation mode. • EUR/USD leveled higher above 1.1660 following US PCE inflation data coming in in line with expectations. • Core PCE increased 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, the highest since February. • Headline PCE was up 0.2% MoM, with the yearly rate remaining unchanged at 2.6%. • Personal spending climbed 0.5% in July, beating the expectation of 0.3%. • Personal income increased 0.4% MoM, in line with expectations and higher than June’s 0.3%. • US Dollar Index regained strength around 98.00, capping Euro’s recovery. • Hopes of a September 25 bps Fed rate cut place the Dollar’s upside under pressure. The recent US PCE inflation report indicated a blend of ongoing price pressures and sticky consumer demand. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s desired measure of inflation, climbed 0.3% on the month and 2.9% year-on-year, its highest since February. In contrast, headline PCE rose 0.2% on the month, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 2.6%. To go along with this, personal spending was up by a better-than-expected 0.5% in July, as personal income rose 0.4%, indicating stable household consumption underpinned by higher incomes. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView These numbers highlight the Fed’s continued dilemma of how to keep sticky inflation at bay while finding indications of decelerating economic momentum. While consumer spending is holding up, the fact that core inflation continues above the 2% threshold indicates ongoing price pressures within the economy. Market players now expect the Federal Reserve may go ahead with a limited rate reduction in September, as policymakers try to weigh inflation management against maintaining more general economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is stabilizing above the 1.1660 support region, demonstrating strength in the face of pressure from the bullish US Dollar. A continued hold here maintains the pair in a short-term neutral band, with resistance within the 1.1700–1.1720 range. Breaking above here may set the stage for more upside, while a fall below 1.1660 would leave the next support around 1.1620 vulnerable. Overall, price action indicates consolidation with a defensive bias as investors wait for further direction from future Fed moves. FORECAST If EUR/USD is able to hold its gains above 1.1660 support, buyers may target the 1.1700–1.1720 resistance in the near term. A clear break above the zone might initiate further advances to 1.1760, provided there is optimistic market sentiment around a September Fed rate reduction. Buoyant consumer spending numbers may cap Euro strength short-term, but softening inflation outlook or dovish Fed rhetoric might aid an upside thrust. Conversely, failure to stay above 1.1660 may encourage fresh selling pressure, with the next support at 1.1620. A fall below this might initiate further losses towards 1.1580. Sticky inflation and US Dollar resilience may drag the Euro down in the near term, with the bearish risks still present unless new catalysts improve the dynamics of the single currency.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Holds Gains Amid Weak US Data and Eurozone Uncertainty: Traders Eye Fed and Tariff Developments

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  • August 6, 2025
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EUR/USD pair is trading within a tight range near recent highs as weak US services sector data and renewed stagflation fears weigh on the US Dollar. While the Euro has gained ground following disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls and PMI figures, it struggles to find strong support amid soft Eurozone retail sales and declining German factory orders. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely watching upcoming remarks from Federal Reserve officials and potential political developments, including speculation over new Fed leadership appointments and tariff threats from former President Trump. Though short-term gains, the overall bearish trend of EUR/USD continues to be in place below the 1.1600 resistance line. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Statements by Federal Reserve officials could provide important guidance on September’s monetary policy choice in light of soft US data and growing stagflation fears. •  Market responses could become more pronounced if Donald Trump publicly nominates candidates for the Fed Governor position or makes suggestions of replacing Jerome Powell, which can potentially erode confidence in the Fed’s autonomy. •  Weak retail sales and factory orders highlight sluggish momentum in Europe’s economy, limiting upside potential for the Euro. • The EUR/USD pair faces strong resistance at the 1.1600 level; a breakout could shift momentum higher, while failure to hold above 1.1530 risks a deeper pullback. EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating near recent highs as disappointing US services data and rising fears of stagflation continue to weigh on the US Dollar. Although the Euro has benefited from the greenback’s weakness, lackluster Eurozone retail sales and a further drop in German factory orders have limited its upside momentum. Traders are still in wait-and-see mode as they look for new hints from the future speeches of Federal Reserve officials and prospective policy changes, especially in light of rumors over Donald Trump’s role in future Fed nominations. Technically, the pair is still capped below the major resistance at 1.1600, maintaining the larger bearish trend for the time being. EUR/USD trades sideways near recent highs as weak US data pressures the Dollar, but soft Eurozone figures limit the Euro’s strength. Markets await Fed officials’ comments and political developments for direction, with key resistance seen at 1.1600. •  EUR/USD trades near 1.1580, consolidating gains from last week’s US NFP-driven rally. •  US Services PMI fell to 50.1, signaling near-stagnant growth and raising stagflation concerns. •  Eurozone retail sales increased merely 0.3%, missing forecasts and demonstrating subdued consumer demand. •  German factory orders fell 1%, adding further evidence of economic softness in the region. •  Speculation regarding Trump’s Fed nominees adds political risk, dampening USD confidence. •  Technical resistance around 1.1600 is a significant hurdle; a break higher may spark fresh upside momentum. •  Investors watch Fed speakers for hints on future interest rate action in the wake of weakening US data. The EUR/USD currency pair is steady as investors are weighing weak macroeconomic reports from the United States and the Eurozone. The US Dollar has been pressured in the wake of disappointing services PMI readings, indicating weakening activity, falling employment, and increasing prices—reviving stagflation worries in the world’s largest economy. Meanwhile, market sentiment is also wary of speculation regarding possible Federal Reserve leadership changes, with former President Donald Trump said to be looking to replace mainstays at key roles, a move that may cast doubt on the central bank’s independence. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the Continent side, the Euro has not seen much support despite the Dollar’s weakness. Retail sales data in the Eurozone was weaker than expected, while German factory orders declined for the second consecutive month, signaling continued economic troubles in the region. Traders are closely watching the bigger picture of politics and economics, such as global trade tensions and yet-to-be-said comments from Federal Reserve officials, which may push investor mood and market direction in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is ranging narrowly just below the crucial resistance level at 1.1600, which has been capping upside efforts since the first week of August. The pair is still in a larger bearish trend that started in mid-July, with momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD becoming flat, indicating market indecision. A break above 1.1600 can have the EUR/USD test the 1.1700–1.1710 range, then trendline resistance at 1.1750. On the other hand, support is at 1.1530, with the further downside potentially targeting 1.1460 and 1.1400 if bear pressure resumes. FORECAST If EUR/USD can break and hold above the crucial resistance at 1.1600, the pair has a good chance to develop bullish momentum and aim for the next upside zone at 1.1700–1.1710, where former support levels could now serve as resistance. Another push through this region could see a test of the trendline resistance at 1.1750, particularly if further US economic data disappoints and Federal Reserve officials indicate a dovish bias. Meanwhile, a failure to overcome 1.1600 may continue to leave the pair under stress, with early support at 1.1530. A fall below this level could spark a more significant correction to 1.1460, then the 1.1400 region, seen in early August. Rising US Dollar strength, a hawkish tone from the Fed, or increased Eurozone economic weakness may promote the downside acceleration.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fails to Gain Momentum Amid Trade Uncertainty and Bearish Technical Indications

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  • July 8, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair continues to experience pressure even after modest recovery from two-week lows, as global trade uncertainty and incongruent Eurozone data continue to unfavorably impact market sentiment. Though expectations of positive developments in Eurozone-US trade talks have provided diminishing support for the Euro, broader risk aversion and safe-haven demand for the US Dollar are limiting any follow-through upside. Technically, the pair is ranging in a bearish expanding wedge, resistance being approximately 1.1780 and significant support at 1.1685. The pair’s general bearish outlook is supported by weak consumer demand, weak trade data, and persistent worries regarding US tariffs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Wednesday’s release may change sentiment based on the extent of the division among Fed members regarding future rate action. • Any news of updates or deals made may affect the direction of the Euro. • A breakout above 1.1780 or a breakdown below 1.1685 should confirm direction. • Ongoing worries regarding US tariffs and international trade may make the US Dollar remain sought-after as a safe haven. EUR/USD pair continues to be pressured as uncertainty in trades and aversion in global risk prevail in market sentiment. Even as the Euro received some lift from optimism on improvement in Eurozone-US trade negotiations and a short reprieve from US tariff threats, the overall bearish trend is still in force. Indifferent economic reports in Germany and France, coupled with declining retail sales in the Eurozone, further undermined faith in the European economy. In the meantime, the US Dollar remains resilient on safe-haven demand, with market participants keeping a keen eye on the future FOMC minutes for any indication of future monetary policy direction. EUR/USD is unable to hold onto gains as trade tensions and soft Eurozone data continue to firm up the bearish trend. Safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and technical resistance around 1.1780 continue to cap upside. • EUR/USD is in a longer-term bearish trend, even though short-term it has bounced from two-week lows. • Trade uncertainty continues, with global risk sentiment subdued by renewed threats of US tariffs. • Eurozone economics is mixed, with weak consumption and easing trade activity. • US Dollar is still strong as investors turn to safe-haven assets in market volatility. • Technical pattern is that of an expanding wedge, generally a bearish pattern signaling potential for further fall. •  Resistance at 1.1780 is key, with a break upwards required to change the bearish view. •  Support at 1.1685 and 1.1630, coinciding with key Fibonacci levels and structure of trendlines. The EUR/USD is finding its way through a risk-averse market climate as investor attitudes are still influenced by ongoing trade tensions around the world. The latest news, with US President Trump reissuing tariff threats, has reawakened fears for global economic stability. Although optimism regarding Eurozone-US trade talks at one point boosted the Euro, wider uncertainty and a risk-averse tone have capped its advance. Economic performance across the Eurozone remains weak, with consumer confidence and trade statistics both showing increased weakening against ongoing global headwinds. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the macroeconomic side, recent German and French data present conflicting signals. Germany posted an increase in trade surplus mainly on account of falling imports, which is indicative of softer domestic demand, whereas that of France edged higher. Moreover, retail sales within the Eurozone declined sharply in May, representing the steepest fall in almost two years, highlighting once again the effect of economic uncertainty on consumption. Against a light US economic schedule, markets are now looking ahead to the coming FOMC minutes, which could provide some insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and what it means for currency markets.        TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading in a widening wedge pattern, a normally bearish formation that is often seen at market tops. The duo immediately meets resistance at 1.1780, which corresponds with the downward trendline from July 1 highs. A clean break above it and subsequent highs at 1.1790 would be necessary to negate the bearish scenario. To the downside, solid support is observed at 1.1685, identified by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June 24-July 1 rally. A break below this level would set the stage for further declines towards the 1.1630–1.1645 zone, where the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the highs align. Momentum indicators such as the RSI are also neutral, trading around the 50 mark, indicating indecision among the traders. FORECAST If euphoria about Eurozone-US trade talks holds and there are no new tariff threats on the horizon, EUR/USD may try to stage a slight rebound. A clear break above the near-term resistance at 1.1780 might open the door for further advances towards the 1.1790 region and potentially 1.1830, as long as market sentiment shifts risk-on. Moreover, any dovish sentiment in the next FOMC minutes or softer-than-anticipated US data could keep the US Dollar in check and support the Euro’s short-term upside potential. Conversely, ongoing fears of trade tensions at the global level and lower Eurozone fundamentals might push the EUR/USD pair down. A strong break below the 1.1685 support may result in a slide towards the next support zone of 1.1630–1.1645. If bearish pressure picks up and the US Dollar holds strong on account of safe-haven demand, the pair might even hit the 1.1600 psychological support level in the near future.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls as ECB Reduces Rates in Face of Global Trade News and Market Volatility

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  • April 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair experienced fresh selling pressure, declining back to 1.1340 following the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to make a widely expected 25 basis point cut in rates — its sixth successive reduction — as part of its ongoing campaign to nudge inflation back towards the 2% goal in the face of a weakening Eurozone economy. The ECB’s move, along with its deletion of previous language indicating interest rates are still restrictive, hints at a possible end to the easing cycle. In the meantime, optimism about U.S.-Japan trade talks gave the U.S. Dollar a boost, while doubts over U.S.-China trade ties and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish economic outlook kept global markets on edge. In spite of the near-term retreat, EUR/USD still has a bullish technical setup, with the next significant resistance seen at 1.1500. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank cut its key lending rates by 25 basis points but importantly avoided saying that rates will continue to be “restrictive” — suggesting that it might be ready to end its easing cycle as inflation trends improve. • Encouraging developments in trade talks between Japan and the U.S., which were highlighted by President Trump, relieved the U.S. Dollar and dampened EUR/USD recovery efforts. • Investors are looking forward to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for greater insights into the central bank’s future policy direction, particularly how the continued global trade tensions affect it. •  As EUR/USD dipped below 1.1340, technical metrics such as the 14-day RSI holding above 70 and more sloping EMAs indicate the pair’s wider bullish trend is intact. The EUR/USD pair fell under renewed selling pressure, moving towards 1.1340 after the European Central Bank (ECB) declared a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, its sixth in a row since the beginning of its easing cycle. The ECB’s decision reflects its ongoing efforts to tame inflation and support a slowing Eurozone economy, though the omission of any reference to rates remaining “restrictive” suggests policymakers may be eyeing a temporary pause. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar regained strength on the back of positive progress in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, offering some relief to global markets amid persistent uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Even with the ongoing correction, the EUR/USD pair still has a generally bullish outlook, with investors waiting anxiously for further guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde’s next comments. EUR/USD continued to decline towards 1.1340 after the ECB trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points, as anticipated, indicating a possible end to its easing cycle. The U.S. Dollar strengthened amid positive U.S.-Japan trade news, further putting pressure on the pair. Investors now look to ECB President Lagarde’s remarks for new policy guidance. •  The European Central Bank cut its main borrowing costs as expected, its sixth consecutive reduction in response to softening Eurozone growth and cooling inflation. •  The EUR/USD currency pair fell towards 1.1340 following the rate decision, with strong selling pressure during early North American trading hours. •  For the first time in months, the ECB left out the word indicating interest rates are “restrictive,” which may indicate a possible halt to its rate-cutting cycle. •  Encouraging news from U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, led by President Trump’s announcement of “big progress,” brought relief to the U.S. Dollar. •   Markets are looking to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for insight into future policy direction, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainty. •  In spite of the recent decline, the EUR/USD currency pair maintains a bullish setup with the support of higher sloping EMAs and the RSI remaining above the 70 level. •  Continued uncertainty regarding U.S.-China trade tensions continues to overshadow market sentiment, keeping traders defensive in the short term. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced yet another 25 basis point cut in interest rates, its sixth consecutive rate reduction since initiating its monetary easing cycle in June. The move is an extension of the ECB’s continued bid to stabilize the Eurozone economy as inflation makes slow progress towards its 2% target. Notably, the central bank did not reproduce its standard line that interest rates would continue to be “restrictive,” implying policymakers may be weighing a pause in additional reductions. The ECB reiterated that future policy will be “data-dependent” and influenced by the current global economic situation, specifically the uncertainty of international trade patterns. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, international market focus has turned to developments in negotiations of trade talks between the United States and Japan. Favorable comments from both parties indicate better ties, providing a breath of relief for international markets that have been under pressure from tariff tensions. As the U.S.-Japan talks are progressing, however, general anxiety over the U.S.-China trade war remains, causing businesses and investors to remain guarded. As policymakers around the world adjust to these rapidly changing circumstances, market players are monitoring closely for any indication of how governments and central banks will act to protect economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD currency pair is undergoing a good correction after unable to maintain its momentum above the 1.1400 mark. Even after the correction, the overall trend is bullish since the price continues to trade above the major short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating underlying strength. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to remain above the 70 level, indicating that bullish momentum remains in place, though marginally overheated in the near term. Traders are currently monitoring the psychological resistance level of 1.1500, which is still a critical upside target, while the April 11 low around 1.1190 acts as a robust support level, likely to be bought if the correction worsens. FORECAST EUR/USD continues to be bullish provided the pair remains above critical technical support levels. The steepening slope of the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above the 70 level indicate solid underlying buying demand. If the pair picks up momentum, the first target would be the psychological resistance at 1.1400, and a clear break above this level could

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