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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Outlook: Bulls Target Higher Ground Ahead of Critical Fed Decision Amid Climbing Channel Support

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  • June 16, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair starts the week softer, trading marginally below mid-1.1500s as the US Dollar modestly rallies. That said, the pair is still just short of multi-year highs near 1.1630 with traders holding out for the pivotal FOMC decision on Wednesday that might influence near-term market sentiment. Though probability of a September Fed rate cut constrains aggressive USD purchases, the hawkish bias of the European Central Bank remains supportive of the euro. Technically, the pair is still in a strong short-term bull trend in an ascending channel, so there is more potential for further price gains. Significant support is around 1.1500 and 1.1430, with the levels of resistance at 1.1600 and 1.1630 likely to cap the price unless bullish momentum accelerates. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are waiting for the Federal Reserve policy announcement, which has the potential to dictate the near-term trajectory of the USD and EUR/USD pair. • Signs of the European Central Bank nearing the close of its rate-cutting phase continue to underpin euro strength. • Levels of support are at 1.1500 and 1.1430, with nearest resistance at 1.1600 and the multi-year high at 1.1630. • Mild US Dollar gains may cap EUR/USD upside, but any indication of fresh USD weakness would encourage fresh buying interest in the pair. EUR/USD pair is trading with a modest bearish inclination at the start of the new week, just below the mid-1.1500s as there has been a modest rise in the US Dollar. Even with the minor retreat, the pair is still near its highest level since October 2021, underpinned by speculation that the Federal Reserve could restore rate cuts as soon as September. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s recent turn to a hawkish policy has kept supporting the euro. Technically, the pair is still in a well-established ascending channel, and this represents a short-term bull trend that benefits buyers. Support comes in at 1.1500 and 1.1430, while resistance comes in at 1.1600 and 1.1630, with a possible breakout above 1.1660 paving the way for more gains towards the 1.1700 level. EUR/USD begins the week lower but remains close to multi-year highs as FOMC decision is awaited. September’s possible rate cut by the Fed and ECB’s aggressive stance continue to fuel euro’s upward momentum. Technical charts indicate the pair is in a bullish trend inside an uptrending channel. •  EUR/USD is trading with a weak bearish inclination below mid-1.1500s during early Asian market hours. •  The currency pair is hovering close to its all-time high since October 2021 at around the 1.1630 level. •  Market attention is riveted on the next FOMC decision, with anticipation of a September Fed rate reduction. •  The European Central Bank’s aggressive policy orientation underpins ongoing euro appreciation. •  The uptrending channel on the daily chart shows a robust short-term bullish trend. •  Support levels are at 1.1500, 1.1450, and 1.1430; a fall below would target 1.1370. •  Resistance levels are at 1.1570, 1.1600, and 1.1630, with a breakout above 1.1660 potentially unlocking the door to 1.1700. The EUR/USD currency pair starts the new trading week on a reserved note as traders wait for the much-awaited FOMC policy decision later on Wednesday. The result of this meeting is likely to give new hints on the monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve, with increasing rumor that the Fed might restart its rate-cutting cycle as soon as September. This US interest rate uncertainty has curbed aggressive action in the US Dollar, leaving traders in wait-and-see mode before the central bank’s announcement. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the European side, the recent cues from the European Central Bank indicate that its rate-cutting cycle is near completion, which has provided some relief to the euro in recent trading sessions. The policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB has acted in favor of the euro’s relative strength. In the meantime, wider market sentiment isstill guarded in response to mixed global economic data and continued geopolitical uncertainty, keeping traders on their guard and choosing to be selective in their positioning as they wade through the week’s decisive events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to be well-contained within an uptrending channel, showing a strong short-term bullish trend. Daily chart oscillators remain in positive range, indicating that the momentum is still in the hands of buyers. There is immediate support at the 1.1500 psychological mark, with additional weakness cushioned by the 1.1450-1.1430 area, where horizontal and trendline support converge. To the upside, resistance markers are 1.1570 and 1.1600, with a strong break above the recent high at 1.1630 potentially setting the stage for a journey to the 1.1700 handle. FORECAST Should the uptrend momentum continue, EUR/USD has the potential to test immediate resistances of 1.1570 and 1.1600 in the short run. A solid breakout above the latest multi-year high at 1.1630 might initiate new buying interest, driving the pair up towards the top line of the uptrending channel around 1.1660. Stronger support above this level might pave the way for an additional rally up to the psychological 1.1700 threshold, solidifying the positive view. On the negative side, any corrective pullback will likely have early support around the 1.1500 psychological level. A break below that level could expose the 1.1450-1.1430 horizontal support area, which also overlays the lower edge of the ascending channel. Should bearish pressure increase and the pair fall below this key support, EUR/USD can continue its slide down towards 1.1400, with the next significant support lying around 1.1370-1.1365.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Tests Key 1.1250 Resistance: Will Bulls Break Descending Channel?

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  • May 20, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is testing a crucial resistance level around 1.1250, the upper end of its descending channel, with divergent technical indications. Although the general trend is still bearish due to the ongoing channel pattern, short-term momentum has increased as the pair is above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is sustaining marginally above 50. Initial support at 1.1210 and stronger support at 1.1093, where a break through might expose the pair to further losses. On the other hand, a successful break above 1.1250 might change the outlook to bullish, setting the stage for a rally to the April high at 1.1573. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a possible breakout above the resistance of the descending channel. A convincing move higher might change momentum in the bulls’ favor. • A breakdown below this level might indicate dissipating momentum and set off a short-term pullback. • A drop below this region would confirm a bearish continuation and leave the way open toward lower levels at 1.0951 and 1.0840. • The 14-day RSI sitting just above 50 is a principal strength gauge—further upward movement could confirm bullish potential, whereas a slide below might underpin renewed downside pressure. The EUR/USD pair should be watched closely as it challenges the important resistance level of 1.1250, which is the top of its downtrend channel. A breakout above the level may indicate a reversal to the upside, particularly since the pair is trading above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is slightly above 50. Non-breaking may, however, reinforce the current bearish trend, with initial support at 1.1210 and deeper support around 1.1093. A conclusive fall below these levels may open the way for further declines towards 1.0951 and possibly as low as 1.0840 in upcoming sessions. EUR/USD is probing significant resistance at 1.1250, the top of its downtrend channel. A break may mark a bullish reversal, while breakdown can see further downtrend towards support at 1.1210 and 1.1093. •  EUR/USD is probing the upper edge of its falling channel at 1.1250, which is an important resistance point. •  The pair is quoted above the 9-day EMA (1.1210), reflecting short-term positive momentum. •  RSI is still just above 50, reflecting a weak bullish inclination. •  Initial support is at 1.1210, with firmer support at the 50-day EMA around 1.1093. • A fall through 1.1093 could see a further drop towards 1.0951 and the channel’s lower boundary around 1.0840. • Strong buying momentum could take the pair to 1.1573, the April 21 high. • The general trend is still bearish, except in case of a confirmed break above 1.1250. EUR/USD pair remains under the spotlight because it is still a point of concentration in international currency markets. As both the United States and the Eurozone experience important economic events, investors are closely monitoring this significant currency pair for indications of the overall sentiment on the markets. Trends in inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical events are all contributing to the direction of the pair and affecting trading strategies. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are also closely watching economic data from both blocs, such as employment statistics, GDP growth, and central bank statements. These factors not only influence currency valuation but also investor confidence and cross-border capital flows. As the global financial environment continues to develop, the EUR/USD continues to serve as an important gauge of economic equilibrium between the Eurozone and the U.S. economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is now probing a pivotal resistance level of about 1.1250, which is the top line of its downtrend channel. The fact that the pair is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicates some short-term bullishness, and the fact that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 50 mark indicates a neutral but slightly optimistic market tone. Important support levels to monitor are the 9-day EMA at 1.1210 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A break above the channel resistance could be an indication of trend reversal, whereas a failure to sustain present gains can cause renewed pressure on the downside. FORECAST EUR/USD manages to break above the major resistance level at 1.1250, it can mark the beginning of a bull run. This breakout can draw additional buying interest, which could propel the pair to the next resistance level of 1.1350. A strong push above this level can lead to a journey to 1.1573, which was the April high. Favorable Eurozone economic data or a change in market perceptions on U.S. interest rates could also drive higher. Conversely, a failure to penetrate 1.1250 can lead to fresh selling pressure. The first support is located at 1.1210, close to the 9-day EMA, with higher support at the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A strong breach through these levels would speed the decline, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper levels at 1.0951 and possibly towards the lower edge of the descending channel at 1.0840. Poor Eurozone numbers or improved U.S. economic growth might further support the bearish expectations.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Breaks Above 1.1100 as Softer US CPI and Tariff Halt Fuel Euro Strength

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  • April 10, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair broke above 1.1100 after a softer-than-projected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for March and a temporary tariff retreat by President Donald Trump. The euro’s rally intensified in the face of market euphoria over a 90-day suspension of tit-for-tat tariffs, which initially boosted the U.S. dollar but soon gave way to fresh euro strength. Weaker inflation data, with both headline and core readings falling short of expectations, spurred hopes of imminent Fed rate cuts, even though the CME FedWatch tool indicated lower probabilities for a May cut. With volatility continuing to trend higher, EUR/USD continues to move higher, setting its sights on the 1.1200 resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD is close to the significant resistance zone at 1.1200 that topped rallies in August and September 2024. Breaking above this level would indicate a more bullish continuation. •  On the negative side, the uptrend line around 1.0910 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0735 are crucial supports to look out for on a pullback. •  Market sentiment will likely change following remarks from top Fed officials today, including Lorie Logan, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, and Patrick Harker. •  With the odds of a May rate cut declining to 19.5%, there remains a 75.3% chance of a cut in June that keeps rate policy on everyone’s mind and driving EUR/USD direction. The trader must watch closely the 1.1200 resistance level that capped previous EUR/USD rallies and now represents a critical breakout point. To the negative, the uptrend line at 1.0910 and the 200-day SMA level of 1.0735 serve as significant support levels that may cushion a pullback. Market players will also be listening to a string of speeches from various Federal Reserve officials, which may provide new clues to forthcoming monetary policy action. Furthermore, although the chances of a May rate cut have receded, a 75.3% chance of easing in June still dominates investor sentiment and may generate more volatility in the pair. Important resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.1200, while powerful support is at 1.0910 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0735. Speeches by Fed officials and changing rate cut expectations—now in favor of June—are still vital determinants of the pair’s next step. • EUR/USD breaks above 1.1100 following softer-than-anticipated U.S. CPI data. • March CPI reported monthly headline inflation fell by 0.1%, lower than expectations. • Core inflation also slowed down, supporting hopes of a Fed rate cut within the next few months. • 90-day tariff hiatus by President Trump initially supported the dollar but reversed swiftly. • Resistance is at 1.1200, with interim resistance at 1.1146. • The major supports are 1.0910 (trend line) and 1.0735 (200-day SMA). • Fed speakers and June rate cut probabilities (75.3%) will continue to be the key drivers in terms of near-term direction. The EUR/USD currency pair shot above the 1.1100 level following the softer-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, which fuelled hopes of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. Both headline and underlying inflation numbers fell short of expectations, with monthly headline inflation even registering a decline of 0.1%. This surprise softness in inflation numbers propelled the euro against the dollar, as investors reevaluated the timing for possible interest rate reductions. Following on the heels of momentum was President Donald Trump’s revelation of a 90-day hiatus on mutual tariffs, which initially buoyed the U.S. dollar before sentiment turned in the euro’s favor. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView EUR/USD pair is displaying significant bullish momentum as it retakes key psychological levels. Resistance currently stands at 1.1146 and the key hurdle at 1.1200, which sat on top of earlier rallies during 2024. Support in the downside stands at the upward trend line close to 1.0910 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.0735. Market participants will be listening carefully today to several comments from Federal Reserve officials, along with forthcoming economic statistics, as they look for guidance on whether there will be a rate reduction in June—a prospect currently at 75.3% pricing. All this will probably leave EUR/USD jumpy short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is showing intense buying pressure, recovering the vital 1.1000 point and heading toward the resistance zone at 1.1146, the latest year-to-date high. A persistent breach above this level may create the possibility for a challenge of the pivotal 1.1200 resistance band, which already topped gains in late 2024. Support on the downside comes initially at the rising trend line at around 1.0910, then the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0735. If bearish pressure becomes more pronounced, further support comes in at the 1.0667 pivot and the 55-day SMA of 1.0645, which makes these levels important to sustain the existing bullish structure. FORECAST If the bullish momentum is sustained, EUR/USD is set to continue its rally in the near term. A definitive breakout above the 1.1146 resistance would set the stage for the psychologically important 1.1200 level, which served as a robust ceiling during August and September 2024. A strong close above 1.1200 is likely to stimulate additional buying pressure, potentially all the way up to 1.1270 and even 1.1350 in the medium term. Confirmation from softer U.S. inflation data and increasing market conviction in a June Federal Reserve rate cut may continue to boost the euro’s strength versus the dollar. Conversely, if the rally falters or hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials erode rate cut hopes, EUR/USD may see renewed selling pressure. A fall below the short-term support at 1.0910, indicated by the rising trend line, would represent diminishing bullish pressure. This may induce a deeper decline towards the 200-day SMA at 1.0735. In case bearish momentum strengthens, further intraday targets are the 1.0667 pivot and the 55-day SMA at 1.0645, where the buyers may try to reverse the pair.

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