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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Continues Trading at 27-Month Lows: Can the Bearish Trend Be Continued?

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  • February 3, 2025
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The EUR/USD pair has been trending lower, trading at 27-month lows as bearish momentum continues to gain ground. Trapped in a downward channel pattern, the pair experiences continuous selling pressure, and the 14-day RSI is close to reaching the oversold level of 30. According to technical indicators, EUR/USD is still below the nine- and 14-day EMAs. The support level at 1.0177 is at risk, and a break below could send the pair to the psychological level of 1.0000 or even 0.9730. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.0369, with further gains possible if the pair breaks above 1.0500. Until then, the bearish outlook dominates the market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • A drop below this important support could push the bearish momentum, which may send EUR/USD towards the psychological level of 1.0000. • The pair is still in a downtrend, with resistance at 1.0369 and upside potential only if it breaks above 1.0500. • The 14-day RSI approaching 30 shows persistent selling pressure, and more downside movement may be expected. • EUR/USD remains below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing the bearish outlook and signaling weak short-term momentum. The EUR/USD pair remains under strong bearish pressure, trading near a 27-month low as it continues its descent within a well-defined downward channel. Key technical indicators, such as the 14-day RSI approaching the oversold level of 30, suggest persistent selling momentum. The pair is struggling below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which is further emphasizing the weak short-term outlook. The critical support at 1.0177 remains in focus, and a break below could send the pair towards the psychological 1.0000 mark or even lower. On the upside, resistance at 1.0369 needs to be breached for any signs of recovery, with a potential move towards 1.0500 if bullish momentum strengthens. EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure and trades near a 27-month low within a descending channel. A break below 1.0177 can push it towards 1.0000. Resistance at 1.0369 must be broken for any recovery signs to appear. • EUR/USD remains in a descending channel and trades near a 27-month low with persistent selling pressure. • A break below this level can accelerate the losses, which may push the pair towards the psychological 1.0000 mark. • The 14-day RSI is near 30, which is a strong bearish signal and could lead to further downward movement. • The pair is trading below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which strengthens weak short-term momentum. • If the downtrend continues, EUR/USD may continue to fall to the lowest level since November 2022. • A breakout above this level may lead to a short-term rally to 1.0500. • Until a strong reversal signal emerges, the overall trend for EUR/USD remains in favor of sellers rather than buyers. EUR/USD is still sliding downwards, with pressure near a 27-month low as the bearish forces remain dominant in the market. The pair remains in a descending channel, and technical indicators support the weak outlook. The 14-day RSI is approaching the oversold level of 30, indicating further selling pressure. Moreover, EUR/USD is traded below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which indicates a lack of short-term strength. An important support level at 1.0177 is in the spotlight, and if broken, the pair could drop further toward the psychological level of 1.0000 or even 0.9730, which was its lowest since November 2022. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the upside, the first resistance level to look out for is at 1.0369, where the nine-day EMA is located. A breakout above this level may give way to a short-term bounce that sends the pair towards the 1.0500 level, which marks the upper end of the descending channel. Bullish momentum might push the next target towards the three-month high of 1.0630. Still, the overall sentiment in the market is bearish, and the sellers continue to be in charge of the EUR/USD’s price action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair has shown a very strong bearish trend. Here, the price is being restricted in a declining channel. It is near the oversold level of 30 as per the 14-day RSI. It means there is consistent selling pressure in the market. Further, the pair is trading below both nine and 14-day EMAs. The primary support is seen at 1.0177, and a break below that level could take the pair towards 1.0000 or even 0.9730. On the upside, a break above the resistance level of 1.0369 will be required for any recovery to take place, with further targets at 1.0500 and 1.0630. Until such time as a breakout takes place, the overall outlook remains bearish. FORECAST Although the prevailing bearish outlook exists, a recovery is possible if EUR/USD manages to break above key resistance levels. The first hurdle comes at 1.0369, the position of the nine-day EMA. A clear breakout above that level might propel the pair towards 1.0500, which falls within the boundaries of the declining channel. Stronger bullish momentum may take it all the way to the three-month high at 1.0630, though this requires the buying interest and market psychology to be well-sustained for a true turnaround. The EUR/USD pair stays under heavy bearish pressure with key indicators looking for a potential move down. The price stays within a bearish channel. The 14-day RSI is also touching the over-sold region at 30 and still pointing downward, suggesting continuous selling momentum. If the price breaks below a crucial support area at 1.0177, then this may increase its losses further and push the prices toward the psychological mark of 1.0000. A further split would see EUR/USD test 0.9730, its lowest point since November 2022, to increase bearishness in the market.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Slides Down to Almost 1.0370 Amid Low German Inflation and Trump’s Threat of New Tariffs

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  • January 31, 2025
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EUR/USD has slid to almost 1.0370 as low inflation data in six German states increases the prospects for further ECB easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence that inflation can be controlled, and the possibility of future rate cuts remains open. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations and 25% on Mexico and Canada has made the U.S. Dollar strong, putting additional pressure on EUR/USD to move downwards. The Fed decision to hold interest rates steady and the release of U.S. PCE inflation data will determine market sentiment going forward. Major support lies at 1.0266 and 1.0177 while resistance lies at 1.0630. KEY LOOKOUTS • Soft inflation in six German states raises expectations of further ECB rate cuts, weakening the Euro and pressuring EUR/USD downward. • Donald Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on BRICS and 25% on Mexico and Canada boost USD strength, adding bearish momentum to EUR/USD. • The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates signals a cautious approach, awaiting inflation and labor market changes before considering policy shifts. • The upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation report will guide the next move for the USD, influencing EUR/USD’s direction in the near term. EUR/USD remains under pressure as multiple factors drive market sentiment. The Euro weakened after softer-than-expected inflation data from six German states reinforced expectations of further ECB rate cuts. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats against BRICS, Mexico, and Canada have strengthened the U.S. The Euro is not so attractive compared to the Dollar. The decision by the Federal Reserve to hold the interest rate steady, expecting stronger inflation signals or labor market weakness, continues to support the Greenback. Investors are watching closely for U.S. core PCE inflation data, which will determine the next major move for EUR/USD. EUR/USD continues to slide as weak German inflation data further fuels ECB rate cut expectations while Trump’s tariff threats boost the U.S. Dollar’s strength. The cautious Fed and next week’s U.S. core PCE inflation data will play a key role in determining where the pair will go next. • The pair has slid down to near 1.0370 as weak German inflation data fuels expectations of ECB rate cuts. • Softer-than-expected CPI data from six German states signals easing price pressures, supporting ECB’s dovish stance. • Donald Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on BRICS and 25% on Mexico and Canada strengthen the U.S. Dollar, adding downward pressure on EUR/USD. • Christine Lagarde emphasized a cautious approach, keeping the door open for further rate cuts as inflation nears the 2% target. • The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged, awaiting stronger inflation signals or changes in the labor market before adjusting. • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong at around 108.20, which is limiting EUR/USD’s attempts to recover. • Traders are waiting for the U.S. core PCE inflation report, which may fuel further movements in EUR/USD. EUR/USD remains under selling pressure, dropping to around 1.0370 as lower-than-forecast inflation in six German states strengthens the case for more ECB rate cuts. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s latest statements indicate that she is optimistic about taming inflation but still leaves room for future easing. With inflation in the Eurozone easing, the central bank could become more accommodative in the near term. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has taken the threats against BRICS countries to placing 100% tariffs on them and 25% on Mexico and Canada, which makes the U.S. Dollar a better safe-haven asset in a time of increased world uncertainty. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The new decisions taken from the Federal Reserve after the interest rates remained unchanged help boost the U.S. Dollar’s strength would continue as the central bank remains in a wait-and-watch mode until they see clear signs of inflation or labor market shifts. Market participants are awaiting the next U.S. core PCE inflation data, which may be crucial to determine EUR/USD’s future moves. Stronger-than-expected inflation reading may strengthen the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and keeping pressures on the Euro. On the technical front, EUR/USD faces key support at 1.0266 and resistance at 1.0630, which will determine a volatile trading session in the next hours of the session. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has maintained bearish pressure and remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0390, though just barely above the 50-day EMA at 1.0449. This pair fails to maintain a recovery; selling interest continues, and supports are found on the downside at 1.0266 – the low for January 20 – and at 1.0177 – the low for January 13. The upside is capped by the high on December 6 at 1.0630. The RSI is under 60 in the 14-day measure; the recovery attempt was weak. Failure by EUR/USD to reiterate the uptrend above 1.0449 will increase prospects for a fall towards 1.0200. FORECAST Upward EUR/USD could be regained if future releases of the country’s HICP in Eurozone and the U.S core PCE inflation are beyond anticipations. Improved inflation data may ease concerns on the possibility of aggressive cuts on ECB’s rate, thereby, increasing demand for the Euro currency. The second aspect is if the Federal Reserve gives signals about being concerned about slowing economic growth or a softening labor market. This might weaken the U.S. Dollar and support a rebound in EUR/USD. Technically, if the price breaks above the 50-day EMA at 1.0449, renewed bullish momentum is expected. Next resistance levels would be around 1.0500 and 1.0630. Continued buying above these levels would drive the pair towards 1.0700 in the short term. Weak German inflation data, along with dovish tone of ECB, are on the other side weighing sentiment, so EUR/USD is vulnerable. The U.S. Dollar might take more strength, if the inflation data of U.S. also comes out to be strong enough, strengthening Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance. A failure to stay above the 1.0370 level may open the door for further losses, with key support at 1.0266, then the January 13

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