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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Eyes Key Levels In Anticipation of US PCE Data; Bulls Ready to Hold Above 1.3500 Even Under USD Pressure

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  • May 30, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair is somewhat lower below the 1.3500 level in wait of the highly awaited US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Against intraday pressure fuelled by a relatively small USD appreciation, the medium-term tone is bullish because market sentiment diverges between the Federal Reserve’s probable cuts in 2025 and the Bank of England’s probable June pause. Technical levels around 1.3425-1.3415 present buy interests, and a fall through key Fibonacci points could provide access to further losses down to 1.3300. To the contrary, a maintained strength of more than 1.3500 would reflect renewed buying momentum, which could take the pair back towards the 1.3600 cap. Investors should wait for the US inflation report before entering new positions. KEY LOOKOUTS • This vital inflation data will significantly impact USD strength and could unleash high GBP/USD volatility. • Directional bias will be determined by market expectations of a Bank of England standstill against potential Federal Reserve cuts in 2025. • This area is key for the bulls to hold; a breakdown through here could see further decline towards 1.3300. • Continued advances above 1.3500 could sustain bullish momentum, the 1.3540-1.3600 area being next resistance. Traders need to keep a close eye on the next US PCE Price Index release, as the key inflation gauge is set to fuel short-term GBP/USD volatility. The different monetary policy expectations—where the Bank of England should delay rate hikes in June while the Federal Reserve can cut rates in 2025—will remain a market driver. Technically, the 1.3425-1.3415 support area is key to sustaining the bullish trend, and a breakdown from there may clear the way towards 1.3300. On the other hand, a breakout above the psychological level of 1.3500 may inspire new buying interest, paving the way for a test of resistance around 1.3600. Watch for the release of the US PCE Price Index, which has the potential to trigger GBP/USD volatility in light of differing Fed and BoE policy expectations. Support at 1.3425-1.3415 remains key, while a move through 1.3500 would indicate resumed bullish pressure to 1.3600. •  GBP/USD is hovering below 1.3500 in light of conservative USD purchasing in advance of the US PCE inflation report. •  Divergent policies at central banks: BoE likely to freeze rate increases, whereas the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2025. •  Traders are expected to wait for new positions until the US PCE Price Index announcement provides clarity on inflation trends. •  Support at 1.3425-1.3415 is technical and presents opportunities to buy for bulls. •  A break below here may bring further losses towards the 1.3300 level, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. •  Unwavering strength over 1.3500 may prompt renewed bullish pressure targeting 1.3600 resistance. •  The 1.3540-1.3600 area is the critical hurdles for bulls to breach to reinstate the longer-term uptrend. GBP/USD is posting cautious action before the widely awaited US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, an important inflation gauge whose release could have a considerable bearing on market mood. Market players are on their guard as anticipation varies between the Federal Reserve, which is expected to weigh reducing interest rates in 2025, and the Bank of England, which will probably delay additional rate action for the time being. These contrasting outlooks are helping to balance the currency pair’s performance and limit any major shifts. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the US inflation data is released, given its potential to influence the US dollar’s trajectory. The general tone implies a guarded optimism for the British Pound, underpinned by the Bank of England’s more tempered approach relative to the Fed’s longer-term prospects of easing. With investors hedging their bets on future economic events, the GBP/USD is still vulnerable to changes in US inflation direction and central bank attitudes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is presently moving around crucial support and resistance levels that are determining its short-term trajectory. Although short-term momentum indicators indicate some downward pressure, the pair is underpinned by significant retracement levels that have been historical zones of purchase. A conclusive break through the 1.3500 psychological level would be a sign of strength and should stimulate new buying interest, at least to take the pair higher. On the other hand, a fall below major support levels would leave the way open for more losses, underlining the significance of these technical levels in determining trader choice in the face of overall market indecision. FORECAST GBP/USD succeeds in holding above the major 1.3500 level, it might set the stage for more increases to the 1.3600 region. This is likely to draw new buying interest, as investors regain optimism in the British Pound as they believe the Bank of England will stick to its current policy stance for a longer period than the Federal Reserve. Further Pound strength could also be underpinned by any softer-than-actual US inflation figures, weakening the US Dollar and stoking a broader GBP/USD rally. On the flip side, failure to stay above the support zone around 1.3425-1.3415 may see enhanced selling pressure, pushing GBP/USD down toward the level of 1.3300. Breach below this region would be an indication of a change in market sentiment, potentially signaling more robust US Dollar demand prior to the release of the US inflation report or anxiety about the UK economy. In that case, investors may get risk-averse, and the pair may come under additional pressure before any meaningful recovery is observed.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Drop Below $3,250 on US-China Trade Deal and Bullish USD Sentiment

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  • May 12, 2025
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Gold prices have fallen sharply below the $3,250 mark as bullish sentiment on the US-China trade deal and a stronger US dollar negatively impact the precious metal. The pact between the two nations to cut tariffs significantly has improved global risk sentiment, causing investors to move away from safe-haven assets such as gold. In the meantime, soothing US recession concerns and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hawkishness have also continued to prop up the dollar, further weighing on gold prices. With market focus now shifting to future US inflation readings and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony, traders are expecting further gold declines, particularly if the price breaks below crucial support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • The release of the next US inflation numbers later this week will be closely watched, as they may affect market expectations for future Federal Reserve action, specifically on interest rates, that would impact the outlook for gold. • Powell’s on-stage appearance on Thursday may further clarify the Fed’s thoughts on rate cuts, potentially sparking yet more US dollar strength and prolonging bear pressure on gold. • The long-term implications of the US-China tariff reduction agreement will also influence global risk sentiment in the future. If tensions in trade continue to ease, demand for safe-haven assets such as gold may still be muted. • Be on the lookout for price breakdowns below the $3,250 level, especially around the $3,200 level, which can serve as a point for more losses. Alternatively, a bounce above $3,300 may point towards potential short-covering and price reversal. With gold prices still falling below the $3,250 threshold, a number of influential factors are at play. The new US-China trade deal, which constitutes a substantial lowering of tariffs, has supported risk appetite at the international level, encouraging investors to move away from safe-haven instruments such as gold. This combined with the Federal Reserve’s aggressive approach to raising interest rates and the strength of the US dollar has further put pressure on the precious metal. Traders are now waiting for significant events, such as the publication of US inflation data and statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may offer key information about the future trajectory of both gold and the dollar. Furthermore, technical levels near $3,200 are still pivotal, with a break of this support potentially causing further falls for gold. Gold prices are under stress, declining below $3,250 due to optimism for the US-China trade deal and a stronger dollar dulling the appetite for the metal. Gold’s near-term direction will probably be determined by significant market events, such as US inflation numbers and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks. •  Gold prices have declined below the level of $3,250, a major fall in the market. •  The US-China trade tariff cut accord has enhanced overall risk sentiment worldwide, dampening the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Optimism over the trade agreement and the Federal Reserve hawkish pause has been favorable for the US dollar, placing added pressure on gold prices. •  Positive developments in the trade front have succeeded in tempering fears over the possibility of a US recession, further diminishing gold’s attractiveness. •  The $3,200 level is still a key support level for gold, and any breakdown below it could trigger further losses. •  Traders are looking forward to US inflation data releases that could shape expectations of future Fed rate hikes and affect gold prices. •  We will be looking for any new signals in Powell’s testimony that could give direction for both the US dollar and gold in terms of future monetary policy. Gold prices have remained under pressure with prices dipping below the $3,250 benchmark as market sentiments change following news of a development in the US-China trade discussions. The easing of tariffs among the two nations has triggered sentiments in global markets, promoting the risk-on position that reduces appetite for safe-haven assets such as gold. As investors disengage from risk-off positions, the price of gold has continued to decline, noticeably. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the trade agreement, the US dollar has picked up strength as recession concerns eased and the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish interest rate stance, which weighed further on the price of gold. The market now awaits major economic events, including the announcement of US inflation figures and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, that can shape investor sentiment and potentially give fresh direction to the precious metal in the days to come. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices have slid below $3,250, led primarily by a spike in optimism over the US-China trade deal, which has given global risk sentiment a boost. The tariff-cutting accord between the two countries has prompted investors to shift away from safe-haven investments such as gold, directing attention to risk-sensitive investments. Moreover, the solidifying US dollar, bolstered by declining recession fears and the hawkish tone at the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, has also dented gold’s attraction. While markets wait for major economic reports, such as US inflation figures and remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the future of gold is uncertain. FORECAST Gold prices may recover somewhat if the market responds to any surprise negative economic data or geopolitical tensions that revive demand for safe-haven assets. Furthermore, if inflation readings come in higher than anticipated or if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicates a more dovish approach to interest rates, it may soften the US dollar and boost gold’s upside. Gold could also draw support if investor sentiment shifts toward caution again, especially if trade negotiations between the US and China breakdown or face some setbacks. To the downside, gold may suffer additional pressure if the US-China trade deal optimism continues to underpin global risk-on sentiment. A firmer US dollar, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and upbeat economic data, can provide additional pressures to gold’s decline. If inflation figures indicate stabilization and the Fed holds its aggressive stance on interest rates, the allure of gold might decrease further still, with

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Rally Extends Amid US-China Trade Deal Hopes and Fed’s Hawkish Tone, Targeting 145.00 Level

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  • May 8, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to come under pressure due to hopes over a US-China trade deal and the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve driving the USD/JPY pair higher, with the pair near the 145.00 level. In spite of the Fed’s rate pause cues, the USD remains supported by the continued hopes for trade deals fueled by US President Trump’s statement about the announcement of a big deal. While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) provides cues about prospective interest rate increases in 2025, the global economic risks, especially about the US tariffs, may cap firmer JPY losses. Technical indicators are indicating further upside in USD/JPY, with levels to keep an eye on at 144.00 and 145.00. KEY LOOKOUTS • The USD/JPY currency pair is moving up as a result of optimism over a US-China trade agreement and the Federal Reserve’s policy of maintaining rates unchanged, which indicates support for the US Dollar. • The minutes of the BoJ indicate possible future interest rate increases in 2025, although global uncertainty and economic unpredictability will constrain the Japanese Yen’s losses. • President Trump’s statements on a significant trade deal announcement also increase investor optimism in the US Dollar, supporting JPY’s underperformance as a safe-haven currency. • The duo is set to test the 145.00 psychological level, with major technical resistance at 144.00 and support levels near 143.40, which affect market mood and price action. USD/JPY pair maintains its rally, supported by a mix of US trade agreement optimism and the hawkish bias of the Federal Reserve, which supports US Dollar confidence. President Trump’s recent remarks over a big announcement of a trade deal have even further added fuel to anticipation, boosting the USD against the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan has even threatened to hike interest rates in 2025 but with worldwide economic uncertainties surrounding the tariffs imposed by the US having checked the ascent of the Yen. Consequently, the duo is getting close to the 145.00 level, with technical charts indicating that resistance at 144.00 and support at 143.40 will be the key determinants of the next direction. USD/JPY pair keeps on moving upwards, fueled by US trade deal optimism and a dovish Fed attitude. Although the Bank of Japan hints at future rate rises later in 2025, global uncertainties continue to put pressure on the Japanese Yen, taking the pair towards the 145.00 level. •  Optimism over US-China trade discussions increases investor confidence, favoring the US Dollar relative to the Japanese Yen. • The Fed’s hold on interest rates has supported the US Dollar, which has helped its strength against safe-haven currencies such as the Yen. • In spite of worldwide economic uncertainty, the Bank of Japan indicates that it can increase interest rates in 2025, curbing further losses for the Yen. • President Trump’s words regarding a significant trade deal announcement later today further support USD sentiment, pressuring the Yen. • Continuous uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and geopolitical unrest, including the Russia-Ukraine crisis, dents the safe-haven value of the Yen. • The pair is close to crucial resistance at 145.00, with levels of support at 143.40 and 143.00 probably shaping subsequent price action. • Traders expect President Trump’s press conference to offer fresh cues on the course of US trade policy and impact the overall market mood. USD/JPY currency pair is picking up speed, spurred on by increasing hope surrounding US-China trade negotiations and the recent dovish tilt in Federal Reserve monetary policy. Supportive comments by President Trump on a big trade deal announcement due later today again boosted confidence in the US Dollar, as global economic volatility remains a source of concern that keeps the Japanese Yen on the back foot. The expectation of a possible US trade agreement and the Fed’s choice to wait before lowering rates have helped push the US Dollar higher, which has undermined the safe-haven status of the Yen. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also cautious but indicates that it might hike interest rates in 2025 if inflationary trends persist. In spite of these possible plans to tighten, the BoJ remains wary of global economic uncertainty, notably regarding US trade policy. Consequently, the potential for the Yen to recover is subdued, notably as the US Dollar remains buoyed by optimism over trade deals and general market sentiment. Traders are following events closely, which influence the current direction in USD/JPY. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is now probing major resistance levels near the 144.00 level, and has the potential to move past 145.00, which is a psychological level. The 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is still a key metric to monitor, as it has acted as a resistance level in the past. If the pair is able to break above 144.30, it may lead to a rally up to the 145.00 level and further to 146.00. On the other hand, the immediate support areas are around 143.40-143.35, and a break below these levels would likely send the pair to the 142.35-142.00 region. These technical considerations, in addition to overall market sentiment, will most probably dictate the near-term direction of USD/JPY. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is expected to continue its bullish trend, particularly if the pair successfully crossed the 144.30 resistance level. A prolonged movement above this level may set the stage towards the psychological 145.00 level, a key level to watch for traders. If the US Dollar continues to be strong on sustained optimism regarding US trade agreements and the hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve, USD/JPY may continue its rally, possibly testing levels around 146.00 in the near future. Momentum indicators also indicate that if the pair continues to be bullish, it may move higher, driven by investor optimism regarding the US economy and declining global risk concerns. Conversely, if the pair is rejected around the 144.00-144.30 levels and cannot stay above these levels, a corrective retrace might ensue. Levels of support around 143.40-143.35 are

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Currencies

USD/CAD Maintains Price Above 1.4300: Market Awaits Fed Powell Testimonies Despite Escalation of Tariffs

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  • February 11, 2025
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USD/CAD is currently trading above 1.4300, consolidating as investors await Fed Jerome Powell’s testifying for future interest rate policies. The Fed kept its key rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, with no cuts expected in 2025. In the meantime, the 25% tariffs of Trump on steel and aluminum create pressure on the Canadian economy, making the outlook for the CAD bearish. Market participants also keep an eye on US CPI data for further direction. Technical indicators remain sideways, while resistance is present at 1.4380 and the pair may rise as high as 1.4500. Support below 1.4270 could push prices lower. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors await Powell’s speech to know whether the Fed is going to extend its interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in 2025 or not. • 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum may weigh heavily on the Canadian economy, bringing a bearish trend for CAD/USD. • Tocky Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be out. This will impact market sentiment and further provide cues about inflationary trends affecting Fed policy. • The upside would be further possible only if the USD/CAD breaks above 1.4380. If it drops below 1.4270, a deeper correction can be witnessed. Wednesday’s Fed testimony by Chair Jerome Powell and the subsequent silent of interest rate policy keep the USD/CAD under the spotlight, with investors watching carefully for further clues. Since the Fed has held rates at 4.25%-4.50%, it is of immense interest to see if cuts are delayed until the end of 2025. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum at 25% are going to devastate Canada and will continue to reinforce a bearish view of the CAD. The US CPI data is going to be an important driver for expectations around inflation and monetary policy. Tactically, key resistance is seen at 1.4380. A clear break above here should send prices higher, while any move below 1.4270 should put support at risk and ideally could see a stronger fall. The USD/CAD pair still trades above the 1.4300 line as investors keep an eye out for Fed Chair Powell’s testimonial for key interest rate policies. The announcement of 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum is weighing against the Canadian Dollar, while positive US CPI later in the session will have enough influence on sentiment. Key level to watch up: 1.4380. Key level to watch downside: 1.4270 • The pair remains steady pending key economic events. • Traders look for signals on how long the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.50%. • The Canadian economy faces pressure as the U.S. imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum. • The inflation report on Wednesday could influence future Fed policy decisions. • Investors remain uncertain, leading to a tight trading range of 1.4270-1.4380. • A breakout above this level could push USD/CAD toward 1.4500. • A break below might push the price lower to 1.4195 and then to 1.4120. The USD/CAD is still trading flat above 1.4300, as traders are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to testify before Congress. Market participants are looking for clues on how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with many analysts expecting no rate cuts in 2025. Concerns over Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to weigh on the Canadian economy, as Canada is the largest exporter of aluminum to the United States. Such levies may mean higher inflation rates in the US, and by extension, that the Fed must continue its existing monetary policy much longer. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA USD/CAD is trading between 1.4270 and 1.4380; 1.4380 serves as a pivotal resistance point for the pair. A breakout above this could take the pair towards 1.4500, whereas a push below 1.4270 could lead to more losses toward 1.4195 and 1.4120. Another event that markets are eagerly awaiting is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled on Wednesday; this will have considerable ramifications in shifting market sentiment and increasing demand for USD. With various economic and political factors present, the outcome of the USD/CAD seems uncertain, but Powell’s testimonial and then the CPI to be released shall be the primary drivers for a future price shift. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS In the USD/CAD, consolidation is seen over a tight band of 1.4270-1.4380 due to the scheduled economic events; the 50-period Exponential Moving Average has been seen resisting the upside trend at around 1.4365. Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 40.00-60.00 area, showing a neutral to sideways trend. A break above 1.4380 would be likely to push the pair to the round-level resistance of 1.4500, and then to the January 30 high of 1.4600. A break below 1.4270 could be seen as a trigger for further losses down to the December 10 high of 1.4195 and then to the December 11 low of 1.4120. Traders will watch for the volumes to build and confirmation signs before making a directional bet. FORECAST Should USD/CAD break out of the resistance line at 1.4380, further gains could occur for the currency, and that’s towards round number resistance 1.4500. An increased breakout through the latter would lead the currency pair to move further to January 30 highs at 1.4600 with the boost in positive economic numbers from the US or more hawkish speeches by Fed Chairman Powell. Additionally, sustained inflationary concerns in the U.S., potentially fueled by Trump’s 25% tariffs, could lead to higher USD demand, reinforcing the pair’s upward trajectory. If the Fed delays rate cuts throughout 2025, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, keeping USD/CAD in an uptrend. On the downside, if USD/CAD goes below the February 5 low of 1.4270, it might reflect increased bearish pressure that could drag the pair toward the December 10 high of 1.4195. Further below this level, it would open the door for a possible dip toward the December 11 low of 1.4120. Any signs of a softer U.S. Release of CPI data or dovish comment from Powell will weaken USD; hence the

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