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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stable as USD Weakens Pre-FOMC; Trade Optimism Limits Gains

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  • July 28, 2025
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Gold prices began the week with a small bearish gap but regained their poise within short order as muted US Dollar demand provided some relief prior to the important Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Although dip-buying re-emerged around the $3,312–3,311 level, investor trepidation dominated as a result of forthcoming US macroeconomic data releases such as GDP, PCE, and NFP. Hope for US trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and continued negotiations with China fueled risk appetite, capping gold’s upward potential. In contrast, political stress on the Fed and conflicting rate-cut expectations kept the USD under pressure, providing a lightly supportive environment for the safe-haven metal. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention turns to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement and forward guidance, which will have a substantial influence on USD strength and gold demand. • Advanced Q2 GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be key in determining the near-term movement of both the USD and gold. • Bullish sentiment from US trade agreements with the EU and Japan, and additional negotiations with China, might persist in keeping a lid on gold’s safe-haven demand. • Political pressure from President Trump on the Fed, particularly on interest rates, could add volatility and direct investor sentiment to the USD and gold. Gold prices opened the week tentatively, filling a small bearish gap amidst tepid demand for the US Dollar as investors awaited the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Though the weaker dollar supported the non-yielding yellow metal to some extent, overall market enthusiasm fuelled by fresh US trade deals with the EU and Japan capped gold’s safe-haven bid. As with major US economic indicators—GDP, PCE, and NFP—due out later this week, traders are likely to exercise caution until more definitive signals come through regarding the Fed’s monetary policy direction and how it translates into both the dollar and gold. Gold prices rallied support around $3,312 as the US Dollar weakened before the key FOMC decision. But recent trade optimism and next US economic releases may cap further gains. Investors are cautious, expecting signals on the Fed’s policy shift. • Gold price filled a small bearish gap, touching support near the $3,312–3,311 area in the Asian session. • Mild USD demand prior to the FOMC meeting supported dip-buying interest in gold. • Investors look to important US data releases this week, including GDP, PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls, that may affect USD and gold prices. • Recent US trade agreements with the EU and Japan supported risk sentiment, limiting gold’s safe-haven demand. • The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates unchanged, in spite of political pressure from President Trump for a cut. • Market attention is on the FOMC decision and Powell’s words, which may influence expectations of future monetary policy. • Gold’s rally seems limited in the near term, as optimism in trade offsets the effect of a softer dollar. Gold prices began the new week in a guarded manner, winning modest buy interest as investors waited on the sidelines for the closely watched Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. As the US Dollar retreated from a two-day winning streak, gold attracted some dip-buyers, particularly since markets anticipate direction on future monetary policy. Over all, the market mood remained upbeat, fueled by developments on the trade front recently, including pacts between the US and major partners such as the European Union and Japan. These accords contributed to wider optimism, directing some investors into riskier assets while maintaining interest in conventional safe-havens such as gold in check. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, focus is shifting to a range of high-impact US economic reports due out this week, such as second-quarter GDP, the PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls. These figures are likely to give greater insight into the US economy’s health and may have a significant role to play in determining investor hopes on inflation and direction of policy. In the meantime, political pressure on the Federal Reserve from President Trump’s public calls for rate cuts remains raising questions about the independence of the central bank. This combination of economic and political developments is making it a complicated scene for gold traders, leading to a wait-and-watch scenario without any near-term triggers. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is exhibiting signs of consolidation after closing a small bearish gap, with the price action finding support in the vicinity of the $3,312–3,311 support zone. This zone is drawing dip-buying interest, indicating that buyers are short-term defending this level. But momentum gauges are neutral, indicating investor indecision in advance of important macroeconomic events. A break above the $3,325 resistance level could pave the way for a rebound, while slipping below the $3,311 support area may leave gold vulnerable to further losses. Overall, the technical context remains range-bound until a clear directional catalyst is established. FORECAST Gold can witness bullish momentum if the Federal Reserve hints at a dovish policy during the next FOMC meeting, particularly if Chair Jerome Powell indicates future rate reductions or economic imperfections. Moreover, below-estimate US macroeconomic data—like a deceleration in GDP growth, lower inflation through the PCE index, or a poor NFP report—can drag on the US Dollar, further enhancing gold’s attractiveness. Any rise in geopolitical tensions or market volatility could also push investors back to the safe-haven metal, potentially bringing prices above the $3,325 resistance level and opening the way towards higher targets. Conversely, however, if the Fed retains a more hawkish or neutral tone and rejects the requirement for rate cuts, the US Dollar is likely to regain strength, placing downward pressure on gold. Robust US economic data this week, especially higher-than-expected GDP and jobs data, could further suppress demand for the non-yielding metal. In addition, more optimism about developing global trade, including a possible breakthrough in US-China trade talks, may direct investor attention towards riskier assets, suppressing gold’s safe-haven demand and enhancing the possibility of a pullback towards the $3,300 or even $3,285 support levels.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall Back from Two-Month Highs Due to Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty over Fed Policy

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  • June 16, 2025
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Gold prices fell back slightly after hitting almost a two-month high during the Asian session, as a upbeat risk appetite in equity markets took its toll on the safe-haven commodity. In spite of the decline, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran, still provide support for gold. Also, market participants are holding back in the lead-up to the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, due to give new guidance on interest-rate reductions with evidence of easing U.S. inflation. As a moderate gain in the U.S. dollar places a limit on further advancement, overall gold’s downside is circumscribed, technicals indicating that any slide will offer new buying opportunities. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate prognosis, and this may have a strong impact on the U.S. dollar as well as gold prices. • The Israeli-Iran conflict persists in offering safe-haven support to gold amidst general market uncertainty. • Any major movement in the USD, particularly around its recent lows, could have a direct bearing on direction of gold prices. • Major resistance is at the $3,452-$3,500 level, and support around $3,400 and $3,360 levels of the uptrend channel. Gold prices have softened slightly after hitting a two-month high, weighed down by the positive sentiment in Asian equities. Nevertheless, the metal still finds support in heightening Middle Eastern tensions and ongoing global trade uncertainty. Investors are also eyeing closely the next Federal Reserve policy meeting, which may give new signals about future interest rate cuts as there were signs of slowing U.S. inflation. Although the U.S. dollar’s modest recovery has limited some of gold’s advances, the downside is still constrained as traders remain jittery in anticipation of major economic and geopolitical events. Gold prices drop back from two-month high as Asian stocks climb, but safe-haven buying continues amidst tensions in the Middle East. FOMC meeting awaited for direction on prospective U.S. interest rate cuts, capping the downside for gold. • Gold prices decline slightly after reaching a two-month high in Asian trading. • Encouraging risk appetite in the equity markets suppresses the safe-haven demand for gold. • Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to underpin gold prices. • Traders tread carefully in anticipation of next week’s FOMC policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to leave the rates unchanged but is likely to indicate future cuts as inflation weakens. • The U.S. dollar gets a modest boost, capping gold’s near-term upside. • Key levels are resistance at $3,452-$3,500 and support at $3,400-$3,360. Gold prices are seeing mild pressure after they hit their highest level in almost two months. The positive mood in the Asian equity markets has somewhat reduced the allure of the safe-haven metal. Nevertheless, the prevailing geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel remains a driving force for investor demand for safer assets. The military skirmishes between the two countries have intensified, with both sides firing at each other, contributing to global market anxiety and sustaining gold in general support. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, attention is turning to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates on hold but investors are seeking clues over potential future cuts after inflation slowed and the economy was shown to have pockets of weakness. The Fed’s guidance will be influential in setting up expectations for the rest of the year, and any dovish sentiments can further impact the U.S. dollar and, consequently, gold prices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the $3,400 threshold recently, indicating bullish vigor underpinned by the development of a rising trend channel on short-term charts. Bulls are still in control according to positive oscillators on the daily chart, and resistance is found at the $3,452-$3,453 levels. A distinct breakout above this level could potentially lead to a retest of the all-time high around the $3,500 psychological level. On the other hand, any pullback would likely find firm support around $3,400, and a sustained fall below $3,360 would invalidate the bullish setup, and it could switch the near-term bias towards sellers. FORECAST Should gold be able to break over the recent high in the $3,452-$3,453 region, it would potentially set the stage for a challenge of the psychological $3,500 mark. A convincing move above this obstacle might invite new buying interest and drive prices still higher, potentially continuing the current bullish trend. Ongoing geopolitical tensions or a dovish Federal Reserve comment could serve as catalysts for sustained upside momentum. On the negative side, nearest support is seen at the $3,400 level, and subsequent weakness could push gold down towards the $3,360 zone, which is the lower end of the current uptrend channel. A move below this level with some conviction would change market sentiment and attract more selling pressure, potentially creating a more severe correction in the near term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Glimmers As Dollar Loses Strength: XAU/USD Breaks Over $2,910 Amid Global Market Nervousness

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  • March 11, 2025
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Gold prices rose to an incredible high on Tuesday, pushing up over the vital $2,900 level to test levels at around $2,910 on the back of a weakening US Dollar. A new injection into the Euro in response to the news of an imminent German defense spending agreement unleashed a domino effect, sliding the US Dollar Index and enhancing demand for the safe-haven metal. Simultaneously, global market mood is still susceptible to the escalating tariff tensions between Canada and China. With investors looking to the next Federal Reserve meeting on March 19 and the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a high chance of unchanged rates, Gold remains supported, both technically and fundamentally, as it wipes out early-week losses and gains bullish traction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold is trading above $2,910; a break above R1 may drive prices towards $2,933, in line with last week’s highs. • A softer US Dollar, prompted by Euro strength, continues to underpin Gold’s rally, maintaining bullish momentum in the short term. • Markets expect no rate change on March 19, but increasing rate-cut expectations for May may further shape Gold’s price action. • Persistent global tariff tensions and recession concerns add to Gold’s safe-haven allure, keeping investors wary yet hopeful of further gains. Gold are still closely correlated with wider macroeconomic and geopolitical events. The recent breakout over $2,910 emphasizes its potential for higher prices, with sights set on the next level of resistance at $2,933, coinciding with last week’s highs. A declining US Dollar, driven by a strengthening Euro off the back of Germany’s defense spending news, continues to drive bullish momentum in Gold. Further, investors are following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on March 19, at which no rate adjustment is anticipated, but the chances of a rate reduction in May are increasing. On the other hand, global trade tensions and fears of recession are boosting Gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s increase over $2,910 indicates strong bullish sentiment, with support coming from a depreciating US Dollar and geopolitics. Traders now focus on the March 19 Federal Reserve meeting, while global trade tensions further augment Gold’s safe-haven demand. • Gold prices recover strongly, rising above the $2,910 level and wiping out early-week losses. • Weaker US Dollar propels Gold, fueled by Euro strength following Germany’s defense spending deal headlines. • Technical breakout opportunity arises as Gold approaches resistance at $2,933, last week’s high. • Safe-haven demand increases as global trade tensions escalate and concerns of a possible economic slowdown grow. • CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% probability of no rate hike on March 19, but a 47.8% probability of a cut in May. • Support zone remains firm at $2,880–$2,873, keeping Gold technically supported for the time being. • Thai Baht gains from Gold rally, reflecting Thailand’s status as a regional Gold-trading hub amid currency market shifts. Gold remains in the limelight as economic and political changes around the world shape market sentiment. One major driver of Gold’s popularity is the weakening US Dollar, which was under pressure after reports of a possible defense budget agreement in Germany. This move supported the Euro and, in turn, pushed demand for the precious metal higher indirectly. With increasing uncertainties, Gold remains a trusted safe-haven asset, providing investors with a buffer against volatility in conventional markets. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are also a dominant theme influencing market sentiment. The growing trade tensions between Canada and China, as well as the fear of wider tariff wars, is spurring caution in global markets. Investors are also monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting closely, as interest rate announcements can have implications for the overall economic direction. In such a setting, Gold remains steadfast as a safe haven of value, drawing in those looking for stability in the midst of the tempest. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has regained bullish momentum after taking back the crucial $2,900 level and moving towards $2,910. The metal has also crossed above the daily Pivot Point at $2,895, indicating strength in intraday trading. If purchasing interest remains, the following resistance level to be aware of is around $2,933, which matches last week’s highs. In contrast, support is seen to be strong at $2,880, which has remained in place in recent sessions. If it breaks here, it can potentially open doors towards further support around $2,873 and $2,857, presenting important zones to be watched out for by traders in the short term. FORECAST Gold may continue to rise in the following sessions. Its clear break above the $2,910 level may set the stage towards the next significant resistance near $2,933, which is also last week’s high. Breaking through this zone might reinforce buying confidence and drive Gold towards fresh short-term highs, provided the US Dollar continues to weaken and global tensions persist. Also, increasing hopes of a potential rate cut in the near future could further help Gold’s bullish outlook. Gold could see selling pressure. A fall below the support of $2,880 would lead to a move towards $2,873, and then a more significant correction towards about $2,857. These are crucial checkpoints for the traders, as a break below these levels could indicate a change in short-term momentum. Further, if the geopolitical tensions are alleviated or the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish approach in the next meeting, it might cap Gold’s upside and raise downside risks.

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