Forex Trading Tools and Services

Commodities Silver

Silver Price Drops to $36.50 as Fed Uncertainty and Geopolitical Tensions Hike

  • BY
  • June 27, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Silver (XAG/USD) prices dropped to about $36.50 in Friday’s Asian trading, reversing the recent rally despite increasing global risk aversion. The price drop occurs as uncertainty about the leadership of the US Federal Reserve grows, following President Trump’s indications that there could be a replacement of Fed Chair by next year. Also, geopolitical tensions mounted as Iran excluded resuming nuclear negotiations with the US, lowering market mood. Though poor US GDP data underpinned expectations of a dovish Fed, better-than-expected jobless claims and an unexpected jump in durable goods orders provided mixed signals. Investors now look forward to the US PCE inflation report for further policy guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market observers are on guard as President Trump threatens to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may undermine Fed independence. • Iran’s decision to refuse to restart nuclear talks with the US may increase global tensions and impact safe-haven demand. • A steep Q1 GDP contraction contrasts with good jobless claims and durable goods orders, sending mixed messages regarding the US economic outlook. • Traders look to the coming US PCE numbers for guidance on the direction of future Fed policy and how this will affect precious metals. Silver prices fell to about $36.50 during Friday’s Asian session, weighed down by speculation about the future governance of the US Federal Reserve and increased geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment became wary following President Trump’s criticism of current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his hint of a possible announcement of a preferred replacement during September or October, which raised doubts regarding the independence of the Fed. Moreover, Iran’s flat-out refusal to restart nuclear talks with the US also contributed to global uncertainty. As softer US GDP data favored a dovish monetary policy view, positive jobless claims and a robust jump in durable goods orders left investors nervous before the PCE inflation report. Silver prices retreated to close to $36.50 as geopolitical tensions climbed and there was uncertainty regarding future Fed chiefs. Conflicting US economic data fueled market nervousness as investors look to the PCE inflation report for additional policy guidance. • Silver (XAG/USD) drops to about $36.50 following two days of increases. • Market sentiment becomes more bearish following Fed leadership uncertainty as Trump signals Powell replacement. • Fears of the Fed’s independence rise before Trump’s potential announcement by fall. • Iran strongly rejects the revival of nuclear talks with America, adding geopolitical risk. • US Q1 GDP declines by 0.5%, worse than anticipated and supporting dovish expectations. • Unemployed claims drop to a five-week low of 236K, indicating labor market strength. • Durable Goods Orders surge 16.4%, the highest increase in 11 years, easing fears of economic slowdown. Silver prices weakened on Friday even as the overall mood in global markets remained cautious. The fresh uncertainty over the leadership of the US Federal Reserve further weighed on investors’ minds. Comments by President Trump that he might replace existing Fed Chair Jerome Powell have alarmed over the independence and stability of US monetary policy. Markets are awaiting speculation that an announcement with Trump’s choice could be made as early as September or October, adding more uncertainty to the economic outlook. XAG/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, geopolitical tensions rose higher as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi categorically rejected any intentions to restart nuclear talks with the United States. The statement ruled out talks or agreements, marking a resumption of tense relations. Such developments have added to risk-sensitive conditions among traders, who are also processing a mixed bag of US economic data. The softer-than-expected GDP reading is at odds with firmer jobless claims and a jump in durable goods orders, leaving markets nervous in the run-up to today’s PCE inflation figures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) was resisted at recent highs and has been pulled back towards the $36.50 area of support. This level corresponds with a near-term consolidation range, and a solid break below it risks opening the metal up for additional bear pressure. But overall, the trend is still cautiously bullish as long as it is above the 50-day moving average. Momentum indicators such as the RSI are softening from oversold levels, pointing towards a possible pause or adjustment before any fresh move up. Traders will be keeping a close eye on price action near this crucial support level for confirmation of direction. FORECAST If sentiment turns positive in the market, particularly with a dovish inclination from the next PCE inflation report, Silver may regain its traction. Fresh demand for safe-haven assets related to geopolitical unrest or growing fears regarding Fed policy credibility can also provide support for a move back up above the $37.00 level. Further still, if economic fundamentals continue to signal slowing growth, rate cut expectations may fuel further increases in Silver prices. On the negative side, Silver can continue to be at risk if better-than-anticipated PCE numbers add pressure to the Fed to stick to its restrictive policy. Any indication of economic robustness, including persisting strength in labor market reports or durable goods orders, would continue to put pressure on Silver. Breaking through the $36.50 level would likely accelerate selling, with potential lower support around $36.00 or worse in the short term.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3700 as Markets Wait for Critical US PCE Inflation Report

  • BY
  • June 27, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD currency pair holds a strong position above the level of 1.3700 in Friday’s Asian trading session, quote near 1.3735 as the Pound is supported by market sentiment over a weakening US Dollar. The Greenback is still under selling pressure in light of speculation surrounding the future autonomy of the Federal Reserve, particularly following the suggestion of former President Donald Trump of making a premature choice for the next Fed Chair, building anticipation of more rapid-than-expected US rate cuts. Also, less than impressive US GDP numbers, highlighting a deeper-than-projected 0.5% decline in Q1, have further hampered the USD. While the Pound is supported, dovish Bank of England signals can cap the upside for GBP/USD, as investors look ahead to the coming US PCE inflation data for clearer guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • An important guide for future Fed policy; better-than-expected data could underpin the USD, with poor data underpinning rate cut chances. • Trump’s words on selecting the next Fed Chair could impact USD sentiment and investor confidence in the independence of the Fed. • The deeper-than-anticipated 0.5% Q1 GDP drop reinforces worries regarding the strength of the US economy, pushing down the Greenback. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on a weakening labor market and possible rate reductions could cap gains in the Pound. GBP/USD currency pair is trading on a higher ground above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by a weakening US Dollar due to increasing fears about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and increasing prospects of premature rate cuts. Remarks made by former President Donald Trump regarding choosing the next Fed Chair shortly have created heightened speculation regarding the Fed’s policy direction, further bearing down on the Greenback. At the same time, a deeper-than-anticipated US GDP contraction has provided further pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the potential upside for the Pound can be limited by the dovish stance of the Bank of England as evidence of a decelerating UK labor market instills prudence in investors. The spotlight now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, which may inject some fresh signals into the direction of the pair. GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3700 as the weaker US Dollar, fueled by Fed uncertainty and weak economic data, dominates. Market attention now turns to the US PCE inflation figure, which may dictate expectations of future Fed policy actions. • GBP/USD at 1.3735, remaining positive territory in Friday morning Asian trading. • US Dollar loses ground amidst fears of the Fed’s autonomy and leadership change. • Trump’s comments on selecting a new Fed Chair stoke market speculation regarding prior rate reductions. • US GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, which was worse than forecast -0.2%, further depressing the USD. • BoE leaves interest rates steady at 4.25%, but dovish remarks suggest future reductions. • UK labor market is weakening, adding to caution over the Pound’s upside. • Friday’s US PCE inflation reading may propel the next major movement in GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is drawing increasing attention as overall market mood continues to support the Pound versus the US Dollar. Increased doubts regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy have been at the forefront after previous President Donald Trump expressed that he might name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell earlier than anticipated. This has put uncertainty on the market, with investors keenly observing how this could impact future monetary policy direction. To this view was added the recent US GDP data that recorded a sharper-than-projected decline, which is causing worry over the overall state of the US economy. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView For their part, policymakers at the Bank of England have taken a very dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey last week spoke about evidence of a softening labor market and hinted at the possibility of the trend of declining interest rates persisting. While the central bank left rates unchanged at its last meeting, there was internal dissent with three of the nine members voting to cut the rate. These contradictory signals on both sides of the Atlantic are maintaining investors wary, with most waiting for Friday’s US PCE inflation data release for more explicit policy guidance ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a bullish tone as it trades well above the 1.3700 psychological support level, hinting at continuous buying demand. The duo is comfortably supported by an ascending short-term trendline, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in the top half of their scale, reflecting strength in the rise. A break above the near-term resistance around 1.3750 could pave the way for further upside towards the 1.3800 area. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3700 could indicate waning momentum and bring in the next support zone around 1.3650. FORECAST If the US PCE inflation data later this week turns out to be softer-than-anticipated, it would add strength to market expectations of premature Federal Reserve rate cuts and further weaken the US Dollar. This would be likely to find support for sustained GB/USD upside, particularly if UK economy sentiment is relatively robust. A firm push past the 1.3750 resistance level may take the pair towards 1.3800 and beyond, as bulls gain strength on the back of softer US economic data and political turmoil around the Fed’s next leadership. Conversely, if the US PCE data surprises positively, it will stymie rate cut hopes, and could lend near-term support to the US Dollar. This could result in a pullback in GBP/USD, particularly if dovish comments from the Bank of England remain a drag on the Pound. A fall below the 1.3700 support level could reveal more downside to 1.3650 or even 1.3600, especially if risk appetite turns defensive or better US data brings renewed confidence in the Greenback.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Soars to Record $3,500 Amid Fed Turmoil and Political Uncertainty

  • BY
  • April 22, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices hit a record high of $3,500 in April, with over 10% gains for the month as political tensions and economic uncertainty rock global markets. The aggressive rebound is led by increasing fear over the independence of the Federal Reserve, as US President Trump viciously criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and demanded cuts in interest rates immediately. While investors rush out of riskier assets amid worries over policy volatility and weakening US economic fundamentals, gold remains the safe-haven of choice. Although the price fell briefly on profit-taking, technical indicators indicate the bullish trend may continue if support levels hold. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold has reached a record high of $3,500, and a continued daily close above the $3,447 resistance level may set the stage for additional gains in April. • Increased political tension between Fed Chairman Powell and President Trump is fueling concerns over central bank independence, a major market sentiment driver. • In a weakening US Dollar and Treasury yield uncertainty environment, gold remains on the radar as the “only true safe-haven asset,” says Jefferies. • Short-term reversals are imminent as traders book profits around the $3,500 psychological mark, with crucial support levels at $3,360 and $3,296 to monitor for potential bounces. Gold’s sudden surge to an all-time high of $3,500 reflects increasing investor nervousness as political tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve escalate. With President Trump publicly slamming Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and urging hawkish rate reductions, worries surrounding the independence of the central bank have eroded market confidence and sent the US Dollar to multi-year lows. This has provoked robust safe-haven demand for gold, which remains on track despite sporadic profit-taking in and around prominent psychological levels. As world markets absorb corporate profits and navigate a weak economic environment, gold continues to be squarely in the spotlight, with technicals indicating the possibility of continued volatility in the days ahead. Gold hit an all-time high at $3,500 as President Trump’s political tensions with the Federal Reserve sent market uncertainty running high. Demand for safe havens is robust, though there has been some profit-taking sending prices down modestly. Traders now keep an eye on key support and resistance levels awaiting the next move. • Prices of WTI oil skyrocketed to around $63.50 per barrel amid short-covering after Monday’s heavy selling. • US President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and push for immediate rate cuts prompted market volatility. • Increasing uncertainty about US monetary policy and global economic threats have cemented gold’s position as the safest-haven asset. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to its lowest since 2022, further propelling gold’s rally as investors fled USD-denominated assets. • After reaching $3,500, gold experienced modest corrections following profit-taking near the psychological resistance. • A close above $3,447 on a daily basis could seal more gains to the upside, with important support at $3,360 and $3,296 in case of a reversal. • With Fed uncertainty, political tensions, and earnings season on the agenda, investors prepare for even more gold price fluctuations in the upcoming sessions. Gold prices have risen to record levels this April, fueled by increasing political and economic uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve. The steep rally follows rising tensions between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as Trump publicly criticized the central bank’s rate policy and suggested possible attempts to replace Powell with someone more sympathetic to his agenda. This unprecedented political confrontation on the Fed’s independence has been sending alarm through the global markets, prompting investors to take cover in gold as U.S. financial leadership credibility crumbles. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the political intrigue, the demand for gold has increased as the overall sentiment on the market goes bearish. Concerns about the stability of U.S. economic prospects, shifts in global trade dynamics, and changes in interest rates have compelled investors to reevaluate the security of conventional assets such as Treasuries and the dollar. Most investors now consider gold one of the few safe havens in a very uncertain world. As events unfold, gold remains the mirror of the market’s safety flight in reaction to both economic and political hot spots. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent upsurge emphasizes robust bullish momentum as it continues to establish new record highs. The price action indicates that buyers are solidly in command, with every dip drawing fresh demand. Having reached the psychological mark of $3,500, gold witnessed some natural profit-taking, but the overall direction is still higher as long as the market remains above key support zones. Analysts note that the ongoing strength suggests the metal is likely to consolidate before attempting another leg higher, especially if global uncertainty and investor risk aversion persist. The absence of major technical resistance beyond its all-time highs leaves room for further advances, while healthy pullbacks could offer opportunities for buyers to re-enter the market. FORECAST The outlook for gold remains bullish as long as global uncertainty and political tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment. If safe-haven demand stays strong, gold could see fresh attempts to retest and possibly break above its recent record high of $3,500. Ongoing pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve, concerns over interest rate decisions, and a weaker U.S. Dollars are all factors that could support further upside in the coming weeks. If geopolitical or financial instability deepens, gold could see its rally extend past present levels as more and more investors move away from riskier assets. Even with its good run, gold is not exempt from short-term corrections, particularly after dramatic rallies. If political stability is established or if the Federal Reserve issues a clear and strong policy signal, investor risk appetite may revive, causing gold prices to pull back. Profit-taking is another normal phenomenon that would cause short-term dips, particularly after psychological resistance levels are reached. A stronger U.S. Dollar or ease inflation concerns may also lower the demand for gold, driving prices further down towards previously set support levels before a possible bounce.

Read More