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Gold’s Historic Leap Above $3,000: Market Responses, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Prospects Ahead

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  • March 15, 2025
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Gold prices leapt above the historic $3,000 level to an all-time high of $3,004 per ounce before retreating to $2,982 due to US Dollar fluctuations and uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump’s trade agenda. The price rally was propelled by geopolitical uncertainties, such as the weakening Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and China’s ongoing gold buildup, which drove demand for the safe-haven metal. At the same time, fears of US recession intensified in the wake of soft consumer sentiment readings, fueling speculation about further easing of Federal Reserve policy in 2025. Despite the retreat, technical analysts foresee another attempt to drive prices higher to test resistance levels with support at $2,950 and resistance at $3,050 and $3,100 being key. KEY LOOKOUTS • Having briefly breached $3,000, gold bounces off $3,050 while support at $2,950 is still the key to knowing what will happen next. • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire uncertainty and China’s continuing gold purchases would potentially affect bullion demand and price movements. • Subdued consumer confidence and increasing recession worries boost hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions, affecting the long-term outlook of gold. • Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum can stoke inflation fears, impacting the US Dollar and pushing gold prices up as a safe-haven. Gold’s recent rally above $3,000 underscores the increasing influence of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and changing monetary policies on the demand for the precious metal. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is still tenuous, while China’s ongoing gold hoarding underpins bullish sentiment. At the same time, US recession concerns have grown amid weak consumer sentiment numbers, increasing expectations of possible Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. Also, President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs have fueled inflationary fears, diminishing the US Dollar and further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset. While traders closely follow future economic data and Fed moves, gold’s capacity to hold onto its all-time highs will hinge on changing market dynamics. Gold’s historical rally above $3,000 is a response to increasing geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and inflation threats. Negative US consumer sentiment and expectations of Fed rate cuts drive bullish pressures, while Trump’s tariffs impose stress on the US Dollar, enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Gold momentarily peaked at a new all-time high of $3,004 per ounce before receding to $2,982 due to market volatility. • Failing Russia-Ukraine truce and persistent China gold buildup stimulate safe-haven demand for bullion. • Dovish consumer sentiment information heightens prospects of economic slow-down, sparking Federal Reserve interest rate reduction anticipations for 2025. • New import tariffs on aluminum and steel set off inflation concern, drenching the US Dollar while perpetuating bull-run in gold. • Soft Greenback spurs gold prices upward, though Treasuries market yield shifts as well as expected inflation provide variability. • Gold is resisted at $3,050 and $3,100, with very strong support at $2,950, followed by $2,900 and $2,850. • Investors look forward to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for additional hints at interest rates and economic forecasts. Gold’s recent record of breaching $3,000 an ounce underscores growing global demand for safe-haven assets in light of increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite ceasefire efforts, remains a major factor influencing investor sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continues to expand its gold reserves, signaling strong institutional demand. The combination of these geopolitical risks and global market instability has further reinforced gold’s position as a preferred store of value. Furthermore, trade tensions, specifically US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, have stoked inflation fears, rendering gold a sought-after hedge against economic uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from geopolitics and trade policies, the US economy is also at the center of influencing gold’s demand. A sudden drop in consumer confidence, fueled by fears of economic slowdown, has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could relax monetary policy in 2025. The potential for lower interest rates and a weakening US Dollar enhances gold’s attractiveness as an alternative asset. Investors are eagerly awaiting future economic releases, such as retail sales and housing market reports, for additional clues regarding the health of the US economy. While uncertainty lingers, gold continues to be the focal point of investor attention, mirroring general anxiety regarding inflation, economic stability, and worldwide financial trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s technical picture indicates a phase of consolidation following a brief move above the $3,000 mark. The metal encountered resistance around $3,004 before retreating, signaling profit-taking and a temporary respite in bullish pressure. The important support is around $2,950, which if broken, can send prices lower to $2,900 and $2,850. On the other side, a consistent rally above $3,000 can put the fence open for another test of $3,050 and maybe $3,100. Traders are in wait-and-see mode regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, with expectations of interest rates influencing gold’s next move. FORECAST Gold’s upswing is in place as geopolitics, rising inflation expectations, and possible Federal Reserve rate reductions underpin prices higher. Gold can trigger yet another push upward to the next resistance levels at $3,050 and $3,100 if it stays above $3,000. Ongoing central bank purchases, especially from China, and weakening US Dollar may underpin additional support for the rally. Moreover, any increase in geopolitical tensions or dovishness from the Fed can fuel safe-haven demand, supporting gold’s long-term uptrend. Gold has good fundamentals but is exposed to downside risks if profit-taking becomes more aggressive or the US Dollar rallies unexpectedly. A fall below the critical support level of $2,950 can trigger a deeper correction towards $2,900 and $2,850. If economic reports, including retail sales or housing data, beat expectations, they may decrease the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts, capping gold’s gains. Additionally, if inflation continues to be contained and risk appetite grows, investors will turn their attention to other assets or equities and temporarily put pressure on gold prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rallies in the Face of Intensifying Trade War: Safe-Haven Demand and Market Uncertainty Push Prices Up

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  • March 4, 2025
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Gold jumped more than 1% as intensifying trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China drove demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from these nations, leading to retaliatory actions, including a 25% tariff from Canada and up to 15% levies from China on U.S. agricultural goods. The trade war uncertainty, combined with weakening U.S. Treasury yields at a five-month low, has bolstered the appeal of gold. Technicals are pointing towards more bullish pressure, with the main resistance at $2,917 and possible support at $2,866. Market players are also watching Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, which have climbed to 85.6%, further shaping the path of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • The back-and-forth tariffs among the U.S., Canada, and China are also sparking uncertainty and leading investors towards safe-haven investments such as gold. • The U.S. 10-year yield registered a five-month low at 4.11%, making gold even more appealing as a bet against economic unrest and inflation. • With 85.6% chances of a Fed interest rate cut within six months, falling interest rates would further continue gold’s momentum. • Gold is resisting at $2,917 while support at $2,866 is critical to break in order to avoid another fall in the market. Gold is gaining further traction as rising trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China push investors towards safe-haven. The move by the U.S. to impose retaliatory tariffs, such as Canada’s 25% tariff on American imports and China’s 15% tariffs on agricultural products, has increased market uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a five-month low of 4.11%, enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic turmoil further. As Federal Reserve rate cut hopes surged to 85.6% by June, decreasing interest rates could be supportive of gold prices further. From a technical standpoint, gold has resistance at $2,917, and support at $2,866 has to remain firm to avoid further downward pressure. Gold holds up as rising tensions in trade pressure safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury yields decline to a five-month low. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also stand at 85.6% and back bullish sentiment further, as central resistance at $2,917 and support at $2,866 will indicate the next move. • Tariffs imposed by the U.S., Canada, and China continue to fuel the uncertainty in markets and raise the safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold rose more than 1% and trades at about $2,910 on concerns of trade war and weakening U.S. Treasury yields. • The U.S. 10-year yield reached a five-month low at 4.11%, contributing to gold’s appeal as an alternative asset. • Market odds for a Fed rate cut within six months are up to 85.6%, further supporting gold’s bullishness. • Gold is encountering resistance at $2,917, with the record high of $2,956 the next big level to respect. • Support at $2,866 is vital to stave off more losses, with further support available at $2,842 in case selling rises. • Congested price bars signal uncertainty on the part of investors, while safe-haven demand is due to keep gold propped up against further backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gold continues to be in focus for investors amid rising trade tensions between the U.S., China, and Canada. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to charge tariffs on Chinese and Canadian imports has sparked reprisals with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on American goods and China imposing 15% tariffs on major agriculture products. This back-and-forth trade war has spurred economic volatility, causing safe-haven asset demand to increase, such as gold. With global markets responding to the latest disagreements, investors are keeping an eye on further policy actions and economic reactions from the involved countries. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Also, concerns regarding the general economic outlook still shape investor mood. The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure to reduce interest rates, with market expectations for a rate cut by June reaching 85.6%. Geopolitical news, such as the U.S. temporarily suspending military aid to Ukraine, also contributes to the uncertainty. As inflation worries linger and economic growth continues to slow, the position of gold as a hedge against uncertainty will continue to be strong, rendering it an attractive asset for conservative investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to exhibit good momentum, building on its recent gains as market uncertainty persists. The price is currently consolidating in a tight band, demonstrating indecision from investors following last week’s volatility. The intraday Pivot Point of $2,879 is acting as the main support, with resistance at $2,917 being the next level to monitor for further upward movement. If the bullish momentum continues, a possible test of the all-time high of $2,956 is still on the cards. On the bearish side, $2,866 is a very important support level, corresponding to earlier lows. A fall below this level may result in additional selling pressure towards $2,842. Investors need to keep a close eye on these levels, as any breakout would determine the direction of the next trend. FORECAST The bullish momentum in gold is still intact as global uncertainties push investors towards safe-haven assets. If trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China continue to escalate, gold prices may witness a further rally. A breakout above the crucial resistance at $2,917 could drive prices towards the all-time high of $2,956. Moreover, growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June can also add to gold’s upside, as lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar weaker and hence gold more desirable. If inflation fears continue along with slowing growth, gold could stay in favor, and upward pressure on prices would persist. Conversely, any easing of trade tensions or diplomatic breakthroughs can dampen gold’s safe-haven appeal. A rising U.S. dollar, potentially driven by more positive economic readings or lowered expectations for interest-rate cuts, would also serve as a potential damper for gold prices. In the event that selling builds momentum, falling through the significant support at $2,866 might lead to more losses to $2,842. More profound correction can

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

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  • February 21, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Stays Strong Above 1.2650 on Soft US Jobless Claims and UK Economic Volatility

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  • February 21, 2025
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GBP/USD stays strong at above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar falters on weak jobless claims figures. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 219,000, topping forecasts, and mixed messages from Federal Reserve policymakers contributed to uncertainty in the market. Optimism in the wake of possible US-China trade developments supported the pair further. Nevertheless, fears over UK economic prospects remain, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issuing warnings regarding sluggish growth and a deteriorating labor market. A better-than-expected UK CPI release did little to quash Bailey’s description of the inflation surge as transient, leaving traders wary of impending policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • The increase in US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 led to a weakening US Dollar, supporting GBP/USD but also creating doubts regarding labor market stability. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issued a warning of slow growth and easing labor market, casting further doubts on the long-term Pound Sterling strength. • Uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate cuts by Fed officials sends mixed signals to traders, affecting market sentiment and GBPCAD price action. • Relief from potential gains in US-China trade negotiations alleviated market concerns, and it added further to support for GBP/USD in the short run. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, supported by a softer US Dollar on the back of increasing jobless claims and conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. The rising US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 indicated potential labor market weakness, weighed on the USD and helped the Pound Sterling. In the meantime, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s caution regarding the slow UK economic growth and weakening labor market kept investors wary of the strength of the GBP. On the other hand, optimism over possible US-China trade negotiations progress gave risk assets some bullish push. But the uncertainty lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve is considering inflation risks and possible rate reductions, making the future direction of GBP/USD reliant on future economic releases and policy actions. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, helped by a weaker US Dollar on rising jobless claims and conflicting Fed cues. UK economic worries still exist, as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of slow growth. In contrast, hopes regarding US-China trade negotiations provide some bullish push, though market volatility still exists. • The pair continues to remain above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar weakens. • First-Time Jobless Claims rose to 219,000, beating forecasts and hinting at potential weakness in the labor market. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned of weak UK growth and a declining labor market. • A more-than-forecasted UK CPI report temporarily pushed the Pound higher, but Bailey dismissed its longer-term relevance. • Fed officials are still skeptical of inflation and upcoming rate reductions, leaving traders on their guard. • Encouraging trade negotiation news between the US and China supported market sentiment somewhat. • Future direction of GBP/USD will be based on future economic indicators, central bank actions, and international trade dynamics. GBP/USD continues to be in the spotlight as the global economic landscape influences market mood. Recent economic data indicate the concern over US labor market stability, with an increase in jobless claims pointing towards possible economic difficulties. In the meantime, in the UK, economic growth and inflation remain among the topics of debate, with policymakers weighing external influences, including global trade patterns and monetary policy, that could affect stability over the longer term. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has sounded a note of caution on the UK’s muted growth and changing labor market dynamics, indicating the importance of prudent policy decisions over the next few months. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Globally, there has been some relief for investors from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks, which has alleviated concerns over higher tariffs and possible supply chain disruption. Also, Federal Reserve officials have given conflicting opinions on inflation trends and future interest rate actions, further confusing financial markets. With both the US and UK economies going through tough times, market players are paying close attention to economic events and central bank actions that may determine financial conditions in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD still trades above important support levels, with its bullish trend close to recent highs. The pair recently reached a two-month high of 1.2674, reflecting strong buying interest. The price stays over the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an upward trend. Yet, resistance in the vicinity of 1.2700 can be a test, while short-term support is seen around 1.2600. Momentum indicators like the RSI indicate that the pair is heading towards overbought levels, so it can result in short-term consolidation prior to the next big move. Traders will be looking for confirmation cues to see if the pair is capable of maintaining its upward move or experience a pullback. FORECAST GBP/USD might continue to climb if sentiment remains bullish in the markets and economic indicators support the Pound. An extended breakout over the major resistance of 1.2700 might create opportunities for additional upward momentum, and the next critical resistance levels might be found near 1.2750 and 1.2800. Any weakness in upcoming US economic data, particularly in employment or inflation figures, could pressure the US Dollar further, allowing GBP/USD to climb higher. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance or hints at potential rate cuts sooner than expected, the Pound may find additional support. Positive developments in global trade, particularly between the US and China, could also boost risk appetite and drive demand for GBP. To the negative, GBP/USD can be pressured if economic issues in the UK become more severe or if risk appetite declines. Failure to stay above 1.2600 support could result in weakening towards 1.2550 and 1.2500. Any indication of UK economic data worsening, particularly in growth and employment, would cause market sentiment to turn against the Pound. Also, if the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish, shoving back rate cut expectations, the US Dollar

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD stabilizes at 1.0400 ahead of US NFP and Fed Interest Rate Expectation

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  • February 7, 2025
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EUR/USD continues within the trading ranges at 1.0400, awaiting release of US NFP, while this is perceived to determine a mood for subsequent Fed interest rates decisions. During the cautious day of the United States Dollar trade, June cut of the federal rate remains pending. The Eurozone is feeling the pinch of economic uncertainty due to concerns over potential US tariffs on European goods. The European Central Bank stays dovish, maintaining an accommodative tone. The technical outlook remains bearish with strong support at 1.0177 and resistance at 1.0500 as the market slices through economic data and global trade risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The NFP report is due out soon and will be driving Fed rate expectations, with good job numbers delaying rate cuts and weak data lifting dovish bets. • The market is still expecting a June rate cut, but any change in the Fed’s tone depending on the data, especially inflation and labor market, could see the US Dollar swing. • The Euro is under pressure due to economic growth concerns, dovish ECB outlook, and potential trade tensions with the US, which could affect the currency’s stability. • EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0500, while support lies at 1.0177, with the 50-day EMA and RSI indicating a sideways to bearish trend in the near term. EUR/USD is being capped within tight ranges around 1.0400 as investors prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will influence the monetary policy outlook by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Strong labor market data may fortify the views that the Fed would like to sustain higher interest rates for more extended periods of time, and poor data will increase the scope of speculations for a rate cut in June. However, the Euro came under pressure from heightened economic uncertainties in the Eurozone, which include the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) and threats of potential US trade tariffs. Meanwhile, technical indicators project a cautious outlook. The main resistance remains at 1.0500, while support is at 1.0177, keeping dealers on their toes. EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.0400. The economy may take shape with regards to Fed rate outlook over US NFP and the more dovish stance by ECB coupled with potential US trade tariffs, weighing on Euro. Keep an eye on resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177. • A healthy jobs report should delay Fed rate cuts, and softer data will increase the bets for dovish rates. • Markets are expecting a June rate cut, but Fed policy change can alter the strength of the USD. • ECB dovish attitude coupled with sluggish growth affects the outlook for the Euro. • Tensions in trade can potentially damage the economy of Eurozone leading to volatile market conditions. • The chart at 1.0500 acts as major resistance for EUR/USD while major support is at 1.0177, and the trend is bearish. • DXY-USD Index still holds much significance and changes in that affect the moves in EUR/USD. • Average Hourly Earnings data will help understand inflationary trends, impacting Fed policy expectations. EUR/USD remains locked in a trading range around 1.0400 as market participants wait for the highly influential US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may significantly alter the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. A strong labor market reading could solidify expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer and support the US Dollar. Weaker employment data will fuel speculation of an earlier rate cut, which puts pressure on the Greenback and could lift EUR/USD. The European Central Bank is dovish; its policymakers are signaling that there is room for further rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over the Eurozone. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA EUR/USD risks from possible trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. US President Donald Trump hinted that he would levy tariffs on goods imported from Europe, a development that will continue to dent the region’s economy and weaken the Euro. Technically, there is still caution as it hovers above resistance at 1.0500 and below support at 1.0177. It stays below the 50-day EMA while its RSI prints a neutral-to-bearish trend. Traders will watch the NFP data, wage growth figures, and further US-Eurozone trade relations developments for directional guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is under pressure, trading at 1.0400, with key resistance at 1.0500 and strong support at 1.0177. The pair is unable to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, indicating a bearish bias. At 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) between 40.00 and 60.00 the pair is neutral to slightly bearish momentum. In case the pair fails to break up at 1.0400, it’s likely to hit further down at 1.0177. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0500 would provide the trigger for a short-term bullish reversal. Traders will be tracking the decisive break above or below these levels to confirm the direction of the next trend. FORECAST However, a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report ahead could send the EUR/USD even higher as the market would be further reoriented into the Federal Reserve cut on June. A weaker labor market puts pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the Euro to strengthen. If the pair can clear the resistance level of 1.0500, it would then open doors for further gains to 1.0600 and then 1.0750. In addition, any hawkish move by the ECB or economic rebound in the Eurozone can strengthen investors’ confidence in the Euro. A softer US stance on threatened tariffs imposed on European merchandise can also be seen to boost the positive EUR/USD sentiment. The pair remains sensitive to downside risks, with this week’s US labor market set to be a potent risk for EUR/USD if the data proves stronger than expected. A quality NFP report should lower the probability that the Fed will cut rates, favoring the US Dollar and driving EUR/USD even lower. Technically, if this pair does not stay atop of 1.0400, key support is located at 1.0177, and then comes a psychological level of 1.0100. Additionally, increasing economic uncertainty within the

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