Forex Trading Tools and Services

Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Fed Rate Cut Speculation Increases and Geopolitical Trade Uncertainty Drives Safe-Haven Demand

  • BY
  • July 1, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices are moving higher, reaching a three-day high of around $3,333 on increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased geopolitical trade uncertainties. The US Dollar dipped to its lowest point since February 2022, as the downwardly pressured economic data, fears of a widening fiscal deficit, and Trump’s hawkish trade approach before the July 9 tariff expiration day weighed. Safe-haven interest in gold is also underpinned by political tensions and volatility around key US macroeconomic events during the week, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and highly expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are factoring in a 74% possibility of a Fed rate cut in September, with scope for easing as early as July, which continues to sustain gold prices. •  The USD has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022 on the back of growing fiscal worries and dovish expectations of monetary policy. •  Trump’s latest tariff threat on several nations may ignite safe-haven buying and push gold even higher. •  Major releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be keenly observed for new direction in USD and gold price movements. Gold prices are still rising as investors react to increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and rising global trade tensions. The weakening US Dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, reflects market concerns over the Fed’s potential policy easing and the deteriorating fiscal outlook. Adding to the safe-haven appeal of gold are uncertainties surrounding former President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, with the July 9 deadline looming. Traders also look toward critical US economic reports this week—such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and Nonfarm Payrolls report—that may continue to impact gold’s near-term trend. Gold prices rise with Fed rate cut expectations and trade uncertainty supporting safe-haven demand. A softer US Dollar and threatened tariffs by Trump further bolster the bullish case. Traders now look to critical US data, including the NFP report, for additional guidance. • Gold prices increase for the second day in a row, hitting approximately $3,333 on the back of firm safe-haven demand. • Expectations of a potential Fed rate cut before September increase gold and push the US Dollar down. • The USD declines to its lowest level since February 2022 as a result of fiscal worries and poor economic data. • Trump’s fresh trade warnings prior to the July 9 deadline contribute to global uncertainty and underpin gold. • US Treasury Secretary hints at potential tariff increases from 11% to 50%, reinforcing market conservativeness. • Market participants are looking for important US macroeconomic releases such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, and NFP. • Technical resistance is around $3,350–$3,370 and major support is at $3,245–$3,200. Gold remains a focus for investors as world markets respond to a combination of economic and political events. Increasing bets the Federal Reserve will follow quickly with rate cuts in coming weeks have reduced the US Dollar, boosting the allure of gold as a non-yielding haven asset. In the meantime, recent indicators of shrinking consumer spending and worries about a growing federal deficit are putting further pressure on the central bank to step in, supporting the market’s dovish bias. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical uncertainty is also playing a significant part in favoring gold. Former President Donald Trump has intensified his trade rhetoric, threatening higher tariffs on nations that don’t seal agreements before the July 9 deadline. Those threats and the prospect of rising trade tensions have contributed to investor wariness. As markets expect major US economic releases this week, gold is preferred by traders who want stability in the face of economic and policy-related uncertainties. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is depicting a consistent bullish inclination while it is trading close to a three-day high level of $3,333. The nearest resistance can be seen in the $3,324–$3,325 range, a breakout above which might pave the way for additional upsides towards the $3,350 and $3,370 levels. Long-term strength above these levels can push the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, initial support comes at $3,300, followed by stronger support around $3,276 and $3,245. A fall below these levels may switch momentum back in the favor of the bears and reveal the $3,210–$3,200 zone. FORECAST Gold could pierce near-term resistance at the $3,325 level and target the next significant barrier at $3,350. A clear breach above this level could set the stage for the $3,370 area, and eventually, the psychological $3,400 threshold. Sustained dollar weakness, added assurance on Fed rate cut expectations, and growing worldwide trade tensions would more than likely drive further rises in gold prices. Conversely, inability to hold above the $3,300 support level may invite a bearish pullback, revealing the $3,276 and $3,245 levels. A break below these supports might speed up the fall towards the $3,210–$3,200 range. Further downside risk might emerge if future US macroeconomic indicators surprise to the upside, alleviating pressure on the Fed and bolstering the US Dollar, hence diminishing the safe-haven appeal of gold.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Price Fights Back Near Multi-Week Low as Markets Wait for US PCE Data for Fed Rate Hints

  • BY
  • June 27, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to be on the back foot near a four-week low, below the $3,300 level as risk appetite improves and soothes safe-haven demand. Sentiment for gold has been aided by positivity in the Israel-Iran ceasefire and optimism about de-escalating geopolitical tensions. But a soft US Dollar, fueled by increasing Fed rate cut hopes and doubts about the central bank’s autonomy, provides some support for the precious metal. The attention of traders is now focused on the release of the upcoming US PCE Price Index, which could be more insightful into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and eventually drive the next big move in gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • A reading higher than anticipated may put off Fed rate reductions and boost the USD, further pressuring gold. • Increased speculation of July rate cuts based on soft GDP and increasing jobless claims might help support gold. • Favorable events such as the Israel-Iran ceasefire are lowering safe-haven demand for gold. • Near $3,245 and $3,200 lie critical support, while resistance areas are at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold price (XAU/USD) is underpinned close to the $3,300 level, under pressure from better market mood amid the Israel-Iran ceasefire, dampening the demand for haven assets. However, the metal draws some comfort from a weakening US Dollar, fueled by hope of a Fed rate cut as it responds to the signs of economic slowdown and increased unemployment claims. Market players are looking toward the release of the US PCE Price Index, a significant inflation indicator, that may bring new direction to the USD and gold. A weaker reading could substantiate rate cut expectations and provide a temporary support to the precious metal. Gold is trading at a multi-week low below $3,300 as risk-on sentiment cedes safe-haven demand. Risk-off flows from expectations of Fed rate cuts and a softer USD support prices before Friday’s crucial US PCE data release. Traders wait for inflation cues to determine the next XAU/USD move. •  Gold price is trading near a four-week low, below $3,300. •  Hopes of Israel-Iran ceasefire erode safe-haven demand. •  A weakening US Dollar, fueled by expectations of Fed rate cuts, provides a boost to gold. •  US GDP fell 0.5% in Q1 2025, a sign of an economy slowing down. •  Increasing unemployment claims point towards possible US labor market weakness. •  Traders look for US PCE Price Index data to gauge the direction of Fed rate policy. •  The critical support is at $3,245 and $3,200, whereas the resistance can be observed at $3,325 and $3,370. Gold is still in selling pressure as investors respond to bettering geopolitical sentiment and economic indicators in the United States. The latest ceasefire between Israel and Iran further boosted optimism in the market, lowering the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. Concurrently, the declining US Dollar—due to rising expectations of pending Federal Reserve rate reductions—also contained the downside potential of the precious metal, supporting investor sentiment in the short term. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView New US data contributes to uncertainty over the monetary policy direction of the Fed. The Commerce Department had a bigger-than-anticipated decline in Q1 GDP, reflecting economic weakness owing to lower consumer spending and trade-related factors. Jobless claims data meanwhile provide contrasting signals with declining new filings but rising continuing claims, which indicate concern over an weakening labor market. These economic trends as well as political pressure on the Fed are likely to keep investors in close watch of near-term inflation data for cues. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is down under pressure after breaching a short-term rising channel and falling below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart—favouring a bearish configuration. Momentum indicators on the daily chart are picking up negative momentum, indicating additional downside potential. The nearest support is at $3,245, with solid support at the $3,200–$3,175 area. On the upside, there is resistance at the $3,324–$3,325 area, then $3,350 and the trendline breakdown level at $3,370, which the bulls will need to break to turn momentum their way. FORECAST If the upcoming US PCE Price Index data comes in softer than expected, it could reinforce market expectations of a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This would likely put further pressure on the US Dollar and drive demand for gold, potentially pushing prices back toward the $3,325–$3,350 resistance zone. A continued breakout above $3,370 would set the stage for a more vigorous rebound toward the psychological $3,400 level, particularly if tensions in geopolitics return or economic indicators keep indicating a decelerating US economy. On the other hand, a warmer-than-anticipated PCE reading might postpone Fed interest rate cuts, strengthen the US Dollar, and bear down on gold prices. In this case, gold can find it difficult to stay above $3,300 and might continue its decline towards the next levels of support at $3,245 and $3,200. A clear break below $3,200 could pave the way for additional losses towards $3,175, particularly if risk appetite improves and safe-haven demand keeps deteriorating.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Above $3,300 on Fed Uncertainty and Tenuous Israel-Iran Ceasefire

  • BY
  • June 25, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold price (XAU/USD) enjoys a modest intraday bullish bias, trading well above the $3,300 level on mixed market directions. Although expectations for impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts keep the US Dollar in check and provide support to the non-yielding metal, hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a generally upbeat risk sentiment cap strong upside strength. Lack of confidence in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire introduces a geopolitical risk premium that underlies gold’s safe-haven status. Market participants now look to major US macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, jobless claims, and the PCE Price Index, which can offer further guidance for the USD and prices of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • At least 50 bps of Fed rate reductions by year-end are being priced in by markets, with attention on whether July will see a move and the testimony by Powell for additional indications. • Ongoing anxiety regarding the Israel-Iran ceasefire and looming concerns about renewed hostilities are continuing to fuel gold’s safe-haven demand. • Traders look to Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the PCE Price Index later this week, potentially altering Fed expectations and affecting USD and gold. • Strong support at around $3,300 with scope for downside towards $3,245 if broken; upside limited near $3,370–$3,400 unless robust bullish momentum is seen. Gold price stays firm above the $3,300 level on Wednesday, buoyed by subdued US Dollar sentiment and persisting geopolitical volatility around the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Although the precious metal is buoyed by safe-haven buying and anticipations of rate cuts by the Fed this year, dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have cooled bullish enthusiasm. Investors seem guarded before critical US macroeconomic releases, such as GDP numbers and the PCE Price Index, which may determine forthcoming Fed policy and, therefore, affect gold’s short-term direction. Gold price remains above $3,300 despite conflicting signals from Fed rhetoric and geopolitical tensions. Soft USD and tenuous Israel-Iran ceasefire remain in place to underpin safe-haven demand for the metal. Bulls remain on hold pending crucial US data releases that will determine the direction in Fed policy and gold pricing. •  Markets expect at least 50 bps of rate cuts by end of year, keeping the USD on back foot. •  Additional information from the Fed Chair will provide more clarity to the central bank’s policy direction. •  The major releases such as Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and PCE Index will have an impact on sentiment. •  Any escalation in tensions may push gold demand towards safe-haven. •  Gold’s direction is still very much dependent on USD weakness or strength. •  Keep an eye on price action in the $3,300 support and $3,370–$3,400 resistance areas. • Short-term gold price direction will be influenced by equity market trends and geopolitical announcements. Gold price remains in a modestly bullish stance, underpinned by increasing market optimism that the Federal Reserve can start its rate-cutting journey towards the end of this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell’s comments in recent times presaged a subtle move towards easing policy, yet investors are still eyeing the general economic context, which indicates decelerating inflation and weakening labor markets. This kindles hopes of policy accommodation, which usually helps non-yielding assets such as gold. Uncertainty in global markets also preserves the safe-haven credentials of gold despite overall sentiment remaining cautiously optimistic. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Geopolitical events also prove instrumental in sustaining support for gold. Although a formal ceasefire has been observed between Israel and Iran, recent cross-border military operations by both nations have thrown its longevity into doubt. The tensions are a promoter of a risk-averse environment, pushing investors to hold on to safe-haven assets. In the meantime, some expectation is building for major US economic data releases this week, which may have implications both for the Federal Reserve’s positioning and subsequent market action. Therefore, gold is still in the spotlight as traders weigh interest rate expectations against continuing geopolitical threats. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price has recently broken below a short-term rising channel, confirming the potential for a change in momentum to the downside. Oscillators on the daily and 4-hourly charts are gaining bearish momentum, reflecting increasing pressure from the bears. The level of major resistance is now close to the $3,368–$3,370 area, which was earlier acting as channel support. Unless bulls overcome this level with strength, any rallies can be met with selling. On the bearish side, a clear break below the $3,300 level can pave the way for fall towards the $3,245–$3,210 support level. FORECAST If the geopolitics further deteriorate or if future US macroeconomic indicators continue to support the expectation of a near-term Fed rate cut, gold may regain positive bullish traction. A follow-through above the $3,370 resistance band could trigger new buying interest, prompting the price towards the psychological $3,400 level. Additional strength above this level may set the stage for a test of the $3,420–$3,450 region, particularly if the US Dollar further depreciates. Conversely, if the ceasefire in Israel-Iran persists and future US economic releases are stronger than anticipated, it might reduce the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset. If the price breaks below the support level of $3,300, it would be a bearish indicator and might result in a fall to $3,245. Sustained selling pressure can continue the decline even lower to the $3,210–$3,200 level, while further losses can be envisaged if the US Dollar gains traction or Fed rate cut expectations are diminished.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Staggers Despite Growing Appetite for Risk and Strengthening USD, but Bets on Fed Rate Cut Provide Comfort

  • BY
  • May 1, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices are now down for a third day in a row, having plunged to a two-week low, as a stronger US Dollar and better risk appetite—fuelled by a reduction in US-China tensions and positive trade rhetoric—tarnish the demand for the safe-haven metal. But the drawback looks limited as disappointing US macroeconomic data, such as a surprise GDP decline and lower inflation readings, drive expectations for dovish Federal Reserve rate cuts. These expectations, in turn, limit USD appreciation and give gold a cushion. Investors now look to important US economic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, for more definitive guidance on the Fed’s policy course and gold’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Focus in the market is on ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may have a major impact on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory and gold’s direction. •  Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: Lower GDP and softening inflation add to expectations of a 100 basis point rate cut by year-end, which may cap USD strength and prop up gold prices. •  Geopolitical Updates: Any strengthening of geopolitical tensions, especially including Russia or US-China relations, might reactivate safe-haven demand for gold. •  Technical Levels under Scrutiny: A confirmed breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support level could trigger further downtrends towards $3,200 and $3,160, while attempts to recover are repelled at $3,260–$3,265 and $3,300. Multiple important factors that can influence the metal’s short-term direction are being closely observed by gold traders. All attention is now focused on forthcoming US economic data, especially the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the critical Nonfarm Payrolls report, which may impact hopes surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Softer inflation and a shock GDP contraction earlier have already fueled market expectations for deep rate cuts, potentially curbing additional gains for the USD and underpinning gold. Geopolitical threats, particularly escalating tensions between Russia and events in US-China relations, also continue to be in the spotlight as possible drivers of safe-haven flows. Technically, a persistent breakdown below the $3,229–$3,228 support area could pave the way for further losses, while resistance around $3,265 and $3,300 could limit attempts at recovery. Gold’s short-term prospects are contingent upon pivotal US data releases, specifically the Nonfarm Payrolls release, and shifting Fed rate cut expectations. Geopolitical uncertainty and USD strength will also be influential, with technical support at $3,229 continuing to be paramount for direction of price. • Gold prices are under pressure, near a two-week low due to firmer USD and risk-friendly sentiment. •  US-China trade optimism and easing tensions are lifting investor sentiment, lowering demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. •  US Dollar strength is suppressing gold, underpinned by positive sentiment and hawkish comments. •  Soft US macro data—such as a surprise contraction in GDP and weaker inflation—are fueling hopes of aggressive Fed rate cuts. •  Markets now expect as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve through year-end, which could top USD gains and underpin gold. •  Geopolitical tensions, such as rising tensions in Eastern Europe, could give a safety bid and cap gold’s downside. •  Key technical levels to monitor are support at $3,229 and resistance at $3,265–$3,300, which will determine short-term price action. Gold still wanders through a geopolitical and macroeconomic maze, where market sentiment is influenced by a mix of economic instability and changing international dynamics. The recent relaxation of US-China tensions and upbeat trade talks have heightened investor optimism, limiting the attractiveness of conventional safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, improved US Dollar performance with supportive comments about international trade agreements has dampened demand for gold. This notwithstanding, gold is being underpinned by increasing fear about the US economy’s health, as demonstrated by a surprising GDP contraction and decelerating private sector hiring. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Inflationary pressure also seems to be abating, with the most recent information indicating a deceleration in both headline and core inflation. These events have reinforced market expectations of further aggressive interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve over the next few months. As market players adjust strategies to meet new economic data and central bank cues, gold still has some underlying support. At the same time, lingering geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to Russia and Eastern Europe, continue to introduce uncertainty that can maintain interest in the precious metal as a long-term hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold recently fell below the crucial support range of $3,265–$3,260, prompting a cascade of selling pressure and driving prices to a two-week low of $3,221. Although momentum indicators have begun to lose bullish momentum, a clear break below the next significant support at $3,229–$3,228 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would affirm a bearish continuation towards the $3,200 level and potentially the $3,160 zone. On the upside, any recovery attempts may face resistance near the $3,260–$3,265 zone, followed by stronger barriers around the $3,300 mark and the $3,348–$3,350 supply region, where renewed selling interest could emerge. FORECAST If upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls report, reinforces expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold could find renewed support and begin to recover. A softer labor market or softer inflation numbers can heighten pressure on the Fed to cut policy, softening the US Dollar and making non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive. Gold prices in such a case can recover towards the $3,300 mark and even retest higher resistance levels if risk-off sentiment returns owing to geopolitical tensions or global economic issues. On the other hand, in case the US economic data surprise positively—indicating resilience in the labor market or more sticky inflation—market expectations of Fed rate cuts diminish, a stronger USD results, and gold comes under additional downward pressure. Continued absence of safe-haven demand on account of bettering risk sentiment, particularly following positive global trade updates, could also be responsible for further losses. If gold falls below the $3,229 support level decisively, it may lead to a deeper correction towards $3,200 and even the $3,160 region in

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Glitters at Record Highs as US-China Trade War and Fed Cut Speculation Fuel Rally

  • BY
  • April 11, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold prices are climbing near record highs at about $3,220 as tensions in the US-China trade war escalate and speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts rises to drive demand for the safe-haven metal. The US Dollar remains weakening, and foreign investors find gold increasingly appealing, while softer-than-anticipated US inflation readings have made the case for monetary easing as early as June even stronger. In spite of a brief tariff reprieve for most US trading partners, the sudden spike in tariffs on Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, further boosting gold’s bullish trend. With technicals signaling further upside, gold may be set to test the $3,250–$3,300 level in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Momentum remains positive as the metal teases lifetime highs. A break above $3,250 on a sustained basis could set the stage for $3,300 and higher. • Weaker US inflation data spurs speculation of Fed rate cuts from June, with markets pricing up to 100 bps of cuts by year-end. • China’s retaliatory duties and the aggressive tariff increase of Chinese products by the US are escalating worldwide economic concerns, fostering safe-haven demand. • The DXY keeps declining, trading close to 100.20, as investors respond to trade volatility and mixed economic signs. Gold prices still fluctuate around historic highs at $3,220 with market sentiment remaining fueled by a combination of economic and geopolitical issues. The increasing US-China trade war, defined by reciprocal tariff increases, has increased worldwide uncertainty, prompting investors to turn towards safe-haven assets such as gold. While simultaneously, gentler-than-anticipated US inflation figures have enhanced hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts beginning as early as June, fueling the rally of the metal even further. The weakening US Dollar, making gold cheaper for international buyers, joins the positive sentiment. With technical indicators still pointing toward upside space, gold may be in line to test the pivotal resistance point at $3,250 and possibly target $3,300 in the near term. Gold prices fluctuate near all-time highs of $3,220, supported by increasing US-China trade tensions and heightened hopes of Fed rate cuts. The weakening US Dollar and safe-haven demand still drive the bullish momentum of the metal. Focus now shifts to the $3,250 resistance level for the next break-out. • Gold prices are trading near all-time highs of $3,220 in the wake of increasing global uncertainty. • The heightening US-China trade conflict has prompted investor flight to safe-haven assets such as gold. • China responded with a 125% duty on US goods following the US imposition of a 145% charge on imports from China. • Weaker US inflation data has reinforced hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions from June. • The US Dollar continues to deteriorate, making gold more desirable to foreign investors. • Policymakers at the Federal Reserve worry about reconciling inflation restraint with a weakening growth in the economy. • Gold is still in high demand as a protection against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold prices are attracting firm investor attention as worldwide economic tensions escalate, led by the deepening US-China trade war. The most recent round of tariff hikes — with the US increasing duties to 145% on Chinese imports and China hitting back with a sharp 125% tariff on US goods — has introduced a new degree of uncertainty into world markets. These trends have renewed fears of dampening global growth and possible dislocations in international trade, causing investors to flock to safe havens such as gold, which historically does well during periods of geopolitical tension. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the allure of gold is the changing economic outlook in the United States. Economic indicators most recently provided were softer than anticipated, solidifying expectations the Federal Reserve could start reducing interest rates as soon as June. The lower rates make assets that don’t pay interest, such as gold, more appealing since the cost opportunity of holding them is reduced. Coupled with a soft US Dollar and general concerns over economic deceleration, these forces are fueling rising demand for gold, making it a sought-after hedge in the uncertain world today. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is firmly bullish-trending, with the daily chart registering continuous upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is reaching overbought levels, indicating considerable buying interest yet potentially flashing signs of exhaustion if the rally is not paused. Key levels of support have moved higher, showing strong demand on dips. While near-term resistance is observed around the $3,250 psychological level, a decisive break above this level may spur a new round of buying demand. On the downside, any corrective falls are set to find support around $3,200 and lower still at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which means the general trend is still very much in favor of bulls unless the levels are broken convincingly. FORECAST Gold is set to continue its rally in the near term courtesy of a combination of factors such as geopolitical tensions, the weakening US Dollar, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate reductions. If macroeconomic sentiment remains unclear and inflation keeps declining, gold may experience more investment inflows in search of shelter. A break above the psychological $3,250 level can pave the way for more advances, with the $3,300 level seeming like a reasonable medium-term objective. Ongoing safe-haven demand and global risk aversion might maintain pressure on the metal to rise. In spite of the powerful momentum, gold is subject to potential downside risk if any sudden pickup in US-China trade tensions or a better-than-anticipated recovery in US economic data were to occur. This would potentially lift the US Dollar and lower the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts, both of which could become bearish for gold prices. On the other hand, if the ongoing rally is followed by profit-taking or technical indicators signal signs of being overbought, a short-term correction to $3,200 or even $3,000 cannot be eliminated. But such dips can be interpreted as buying opportunities, provided the overall economic situation remains weak.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

  • BY
  • March 11, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold price Struggles near record highs as USD gains, Fed Rate speculations in focus

  • BY
  • February 7, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The gold price XAU/USD has remained at near record levels but failed to make any real momentum as the US Dollar was slightly higher going into the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Though trade war tensions and a general expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut should keep the precious metal well supported, caution continues to prevail in bullish traders’ camp. Deteriorating US Treasury yields and persisting economic jitters remain supportive of safe-haven gold. However, the technical indicators provide an overbought reading-a precursor to near-term consolidation before an extended move, after which the key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will watch the breach down for further correction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The next NFP report will dictate the market expectations about the Fed’s rate path and, hence, the USD demand and the gold price direction in the near future. • Multiple Fed rate cuts by 2025 are supporting gold, but strong labor market data could alter this scenario. • Increasing geopolitical risks and retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on US goods improve the safe-haven appeal of gold, capping downside risks despite short-term USD strength. • Gold remains near record highs, but RSI signals overbought conditions, with key support at $2,855 and resistance near $2,900 for further momentum. Gold price remains near record highs as investors weigh multiple factors, including the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and escalating US-China trade tensions. While the weakening US Treasury yields and safe-haven demand support gold, a modest USD uptick ahead of key economic data creates short-term uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, signaling a potential consolidation before any further uptrend. Key support levels at $2,855 and $2,800 will be crucial in determining the next move, while resistance near $2,900 could challenge bullish momentum in the near term. Gold price lingers around record highs due to Fed rate cut expectations and trade tensions, yet it faces strong resistance from a modest USD uptick. Determinative key levels will be for the next step: $2,855 and $2,900. The technical indicators go even further to suggest short-term consolidation. • Gold refuses to hold its ground off the all-time high for a modest USD uptick. • Market speculations of several Fed rate cuts in 2025 support gold’s bullish view even with positive labor market numbers. • The NFP release will influence USD demand and is likely to push gold in one direction or another. • Growing geopolitical tensions, along with China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, will continue to boost gold’s safe-haven status. • Declining bond yields make non-yielding assets, such as gold, more appealing and add more support. • This RSI indication of overbuying could eventually lead to temporary consolidation before entering an extended rise. • Areas of support here are at the levels of $2,855 and $2,800 and resistance is capped near $2,900 for the bulls Gold price in XAU/USD stays almost at all time highs but under pressure due to a slight upside in the USD as investors focus on the NFP from the US. While positive expectations about rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US Treasury yields continue to support the bullish outlook on metal, short-term consolidation seems probable because of technical overbought conditions. Apart from those factors, geopolitical risks, particularly increasing tensions in the US-China trade, continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, preventing a more significant downtrend despite some profit-taking. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The price of gold is trading close to record highs due to the expectations of cuts in the Federal Reserve rate and safe-haven demand amid US-China trade tensions. However, a modest increase in the US Dollar ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls report has capped the further upside and thus the market sentiment is cautious. The technical indicators are also pointing towards an overbought situation, and a short-term pullback may occur before the next breakout. The important resistance levels are at $2,900 while support at $2,855 and $2,800 will definitely be the make or break situation. Traders are closely observing any significant change in economic data and geopolitical development which will define gold’s price action in the coming days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) remains in a strong uptrend but faces resistance near the $2,900 level, while key support is seen at $2,855 and $2,800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the market is overbought, so the price might enter into short-term consolidation before another breakout. A decisive move above $2,900 will open the way to further growth, while a break below $2,800 will trigger additional selling pressure. Although the moving averages stay aligned in favour of bulls and continue to confirm the overall bullish trend, traders should expect corrections before fresh long positions. FORECAST Gold prices remain in long-term bullish, supported by expected multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, and declining U.S. Treasury yields. If the NFP data does indicate a weakness in the US labor market, it would bode well for gold, potentially pushing prices beyond the key resistance at $2,900. A sustained move above this would open the path for further rallies towards $2,950 and even $3,000 within the next week or so. Furthermore, growing US-China trade tensions and a general sense of economic uncertainty might keep demand pretty high for the yellow metal since investors are still looking for safety from market volatilities. Despite its strong rally, gold faces short-term downside risks due to overbought technical conditions, with the RSI signaling the possibility of a pullback. If the US Dollar strengthens further or NFP data beats expectations, gold could see a correction toward the $2,855 and $2,800 support levels. A decisive break below $2,800 could trigger additional selling pressure, potentially dragging prices toward $2,750 or lower. However, some fundamentals – such as monetary policy by central banks and political uncertainty – would be unlikely to let gold decline sharply and will keep the gold supported in the long term.

Read More