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Gold Hits Record $3,600 as Soft US Jobs Data Spurs Fed Rate Cut Hopes

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  • September 6, 2025
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Gold soared to an all-time high of $3,600 on Friday after disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data fueled speculations of Federal Reserve rate reductions. The report released 22,000 jobs in August, short of expectations, and sent the unemployment rate to 4.3%, while wage growth stagnated. As a response, US Treasury yields fell, the US Dollar lost value, and investors rushed towards the safety of Gold. Concerns from the market regarding Fed independence, combined with speculation of a possible 50-basis-point reduction by analysts, helped sustain bullion’s rally before next week’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). KEY LOOKOUTS • Next week’s CPI data will be closely monitored by investors to determine inflation patterns and likely Fed rate cuts. • Expectations of a 25–50 bps rate reduction will shape Gold’s short-term course. • Dropping yields and a weak Dollar continue to propel Gold’s bullish trend. • Gold is at major resistance of $3,650 and $3,700, while a fall below $3,600 would potentially pave the way to $3,511 and $3,500. Gold reached an all-time high at $3,600 as weak US labor market statistics kindled hopes of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report was disappointing with a mere 22,000 jobs being added, nudging unemployment upwards while leaving wage growth unchanged. Declining Treasury yields and a weakening US Dollar added to the bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Market fear of Fed independence, as well as hopes of a potential 50-basis-point reduction, has supported Gold’s positive bias before next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Gold broke the all-time high at $3,600 following dismal US jobs numbers that increased prospects of Fed interest rate reductions. Declining Treasury yields and weaker Dollar powered the rally, with markets now looking towards next week’s CPI release for direction. • Gold touched an all-time high of $3,600 after soft US Nonfarm Payrolls data. • August jobs report reported adding just 22,000 jobs, below estimates of 75,000. • US unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, while wage growth stabilized at 0.3% MoM. • US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year note, plummeted hard, increasing Gold’s attractiveness. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.70% due to risk-off flows. • Potential Fed rate cuts of 50 bps or so are anticipated by analysts, such as Standard Chartered. • Gold near-term technical resistance is at $3,650 and $3,700, with near-term support at $3,511–$3,500. Gold jumped to a record $3,600 as softer-than-forecast US labor market data fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated just 22,000 jobs added, below forecasts, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.3% and wage growth was steady. Disappointing jobs numbers raised concerns about the health of the US economy, and investors turned to the safety of Gold. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Market sentiment was also impacted by declining Treasury yields and a softer US Dollar, both of which benefited bullion’s attractiveness. Analysts such as those at Standard Chartered emphasized prospects for material Fed easing over the next few months, enhancing expectations for rate cuts before next week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Political uncertainty with regard to the Fed’s independence contributed further to the bearish outlook for Gold. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s technical bias is strongly bullish following a break above the $3,600 level, indicating a strong uptrend. The immediate levels to watch for resistance are $3,650 and $3,700, where profit-taking might occur. On the bearish side, a close below $3,600 on the daily chart might open up support at $3,511, and then come the psychological $3,500 level. On a general basis, the trend indicates that the bulls are dominant, and additional gains are expected if Gold manages to hold above support levels. FORECAST Gold is expected to remain on a rising course in the short term if market sentiment is supportive. On expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and a softer US Dollar, prices have the potential to test resistance levels around $3,650 and even $3,700. The positive momentum can continue as investors look to safe-haven assets in anticipation of key US economic data. But negative risks persist if Gold cannot stay above $3,600. A sustained decline below this may push prices into correction to $3,511, then $3,500, as investors may take profits or respond to better-than-forecast US economic statistics. Reactions of markets to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) announcement will be pivotal to deciding the next way forward.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Falls on Modest USD Strength, but Geopolitical Uncertainty and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Provide Support

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  • August 4, 2025
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Gold prices started the week lower, pulling back from recent highs as the US Dollar recovered some ground against a modest rise in Treasury yields. But the negative for the precious metal seems to be in short supply given rising market hopes for a September Federal Reserve rate cut, political tension over the Fed’s independence, and rising geopolitical tensions following the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia. All this continues to support gold’s status as a safe-haven asset, and the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish even with short-term ups and downs. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing speculation of a rate cut continues to limit USD strength and underpins gold prices. • Deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia increases safe-haven demand in the face of increasing global uncertainty. • Deterioration in weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll numbers and revisions signal a slowing economy, supporting gold. • Look for support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,370–$3,400 for possible breakout or pullback signals. Gold prices fell slightly at the beginning of the week as reduced Treasury yield pressures allowed the US Dollar to recover some ground. This slight fall aside, the forward-looking precious metal continues to be supported by increasing anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has moderated wider USD advances. Further, geopolitical uncertainties—specifically the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia—are also lending additional support to gold’s safe-haven status. Traders are now looking to future US economic data and risk sentiment for guidance on the next move for XAU/USD. Gold price inches lower on modest USD strength but is underpinned by expectations of Fed rate cuts and elevated geopolitical tensions. Market attention now turns to release of US economic data and overall risk appetite for further guidance. • Gold price retreated from more than one-week high at $3,369 on fresh USD buying. • Modest recovery in US Treasury yields underpinned the US Dollar, driving gold prices lower. • September Fed rate cut hopes remain to cap non-yielding gold’s downside. • Soft US jobs data, including below-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls, fueled rate cut expectations. • Political tension surrounding the independence of the Fed is suppressing aggressive USD rebound. • Geopolitical concerns escalated after the US sent nuclear submarines to the vicinity of Russia. • Technical support remains at $3,300, and a breach above $3,370 may lead to $3,400+. Gold still draws the interest of investors amidst a complicated combination of economic and geopolitical events. Although the metal started the week weaker, its long-term attraction is firm because market belief is increasingly building that the Federal Reserve is moving towards the start of a rate-cutting cycle, perhaps in September. The latest US jobs report, which recorded a significant slowdown in job recruitment and a rise in unemployment, has added to the perception that the US economy is slowing. This supports the case for softer interest rates, which have traditionally helped gold since it does not pay interest and tends to thrive in low-rate conditions. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, political uncertainty is growing. The impromptu removal of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics by President Trump and the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor have spooked the market with fears over the independence of the Fed. The incidents raise the wariness of investors and improve the attraction of safe-haven instruments such as gold. Geopolitical tensions also continue to mount, with the deployment of US nuclear submarines off Russia in response to aggressive rhetoric, adding further to concerns of international instability. These considerations together create a solid fundamental underpin for gold over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold broke above the resistance level of $3,335 recently and also above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, reflecting short-term bullish momentum. Oscillators are becoming positively more bullish, indicating ongoing dip-buying interest near support levels. Primary support now resides in the vicinity of $3,340–$3,338, with additional buying anticipated near $3,320 if that does come under test. On the positive side, a continued move through the new high of $3,369–$3,370 would seal the bullish trend and leave the way open toward the psychological $3,400 level, potentially retesting the all-time high around $3,500 if support persists. FORECAST If positive sentiment prevails, fueled by a hoped-for September Fed rate cut and increased geopolitical tensions, gold might reattack the $3,370 resistance level. A breach above this region may trigger a retest of the $3,400 psychological level. Continued buying and positive risk-off sentiment might even propel the metal to the $3,434–$3,435 obstacle, and ultimately, a retest of the all-time high around $3,500 is still in play if uncertainty in the world continues. Conversely, if the US Dollar continues to appreciate further based on more robust-than-expected economic data or a more aggressive Fed stance, gold could experience selling pressure. Support begins around the $3,340–$3,338 area, which lines up with the 100-period SMA. A firm break below this zone could set further losses in motion towards $3,320, and sustained losses might take the price towards the make-or-break $3,300 level. A violation of this mark could turn momentum in the bears’ direction.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Rises Above $3,350 as Fed’s Dovish Shift, Sinking Dollar Fuel Demand for Bullion

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  • July 19, 2025
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Gold prices surged to above $3,350 in Friday’s North American session after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and a weakening US Dollar fueled demand for bullion. Waller’s endorsement of a possible July rate cut led the US Treasury yields down and made non-yielding instruments such as gold relatively more attractive. In contrast, the US Dollar Index declined to 98.48, making gold more attractive to foreign investors. Bullish sentiment from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report, which showed weakening long-term inflation expectations, also propelled gold’s bullishness. Investors are now looking at upcoming US economic reports for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold price climbed to $3,353, buoyed by dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller who supported a rate cut in July. • US Dollar Index fell to 98.48, making gold more desirable to foreign investors since it becomes less expensive in other currencies. • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, while long-term inflation expectations relaxed, reinforcing the attractiveness of gold. • US Treasury yields softened, with 10-year yield decreasing to 4.421%, further increasing demand for non-interest-paying gold. Gold prices surged above the $3,350 mark on Friday, driven by a weaker US Dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s support for a potential rate cut at the July meeting sparked a decline in US Treasury yields, which in turn lifted demand for the non-yielding metal. Adding to the positive sentiment, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated better economic optimism and a decline in long-term inflation expectations. The weaker Dollar, as evidenced by the decline in the DXY to 98.48, also made gold more attractive to foreign buyers, adding to upward pressure on the precious metal. Gold rose above $3,350 after Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments increased rate cut hopes and pushed US Treasury yields down. A softer US Dollar also underpinned gold prices, making the metal more appealing to foreign investors. •  Gold price advanced to $3,353 after dovish words from Fed Governor Christopher Waller favoring a July rate cut. •  The US Dollar Index slid to 98.48, enhancing the allure of gold for foreign investors. •  US Treasury yields fell, hence non-yielding instruments such as gold became more desirable. •  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose, signaling increasing optimism in the US economy. •  Long-run inflation expectations relaxed, aiding gold’s safe-haven appeal. •   Traders have priced in 45 basis points of Fed easing by the end of the year, higher than 42 bps before. •  US economic releases, such as housing data, PMIs, and unemployment claims, next week could determine the direction of gold. Gold prices were heavily supported this week as bets for a July Fed rate cut strengthened. A dovish turn from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that inflation is decelerating and the economy can use easier monetary policy, underpinned the price. His comments assisted in altering market sentiment, raising the prospect of policy easing by year-end. This shift in belief has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly as investors want stability in a possibly falling interest rate environment. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to gold’s momentum were last week’s figures in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which indicated Americans are increasingly optimistic about the economy. Long-term inflation expectations were also revised lower, signaling increasing confidence in price stability. These trends combined with a muted US Dollar have made gold a growing choice for investors seeking to hedge eventual uncertainty while maintaining capital. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is holding a bullish chart pattern at the $3,350 level, with traders looking to key resistance points. A breakout above the weekly peak of $3,377 would open the way for a move into $3,400 and possibly the June 16 high of $3,452. A subsequent breakout would set the stage for a test of the all-time high at $3,500. The downside, however, is support at $3,300, which a break below might prompt a fall to the June 30 low of $3,246, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average coming in around $3,209. FORECAST Should bullish momentum prevail, gold may break out of the near-term resistance at $3,377, clearing the way for a rise towards $3,400. A sustained move above this point would indicate robust market optimism, pushing the price to the June 16 high of $3,452. If further support comes from economic data or Fed commentary on a dovish bias, gold could challenge the psychological level of $3,500 in the near future. On the other hand, if gold cannot maintain above the $3,350 region and drops below $3,300, it may provoke an even more serious correction. The second line of support would be near $3,246, the June 30 low, then the 100-day Simple Moving Average near $3,209. A reinforcing US Dollar, hawkish Fed cues, or resilient economic reports can all induce downward pressure on the metal.

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