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Gold Price Stays Below Multi-Week High as Trade Tensions Counter Fed Rate Uncertainty

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  • July 14, 2025
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Gold price stays range-bound below a multi-week high as opposing market forces make traders wary. While lowering expectations of an instant Fed rate cut bolster the US Dollar and negate the non-yielding metal, increasing global trade tensions—particularly new US tariff threats against the EU and Mexico—enforce safe-haven buying. Investors are waiting for next US inflation data for more insight into the direction of Fed’s policy, which will determine the next big move of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • New tariff threats by President Trump on the EU and Mexico boost global risk aversion, fueling demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. • Fading chances of an imminent Fed rate cut favor the US Dollar, limiting gold’s short-term upside potential. • Traders are looking ahead to significant US inflation data (CPI and PPI) this week, which may define speculation surrounding the Fed’s policy direction and determine gold’s next direction. • The downside in gold seems supported around $3,300, while bulls look to retake the $3,400 level, supported by a bullish technical pattern. Gold price is stabilizing below a multi-week high in a tug-of-war between stronger US Dollar and rising global trade tensions. The fading prospects of an imminent Fed rate cut have boosted the greenback, which is holding back the non-yielding bullion. But new US threats of trade against the European Union and Mexico soured market mood, underpinning gold’s safe-haven allure. With investors looking for decisive US inflation data and additional Fed commentary, gold is stuck in a defensive holding position, with limited downside risk and scope for renewed upside momentum. Gold price trades defensively below recent highs with lower bets on Fed rate cuts underpinning the US Dollar. But increasing trade tensions maintain demand for the safe-haven metal. Investors are awaiting US inflation data for firmer guidance. • Gold price consolidates below a multi-week high, weighed down by improved US Dollar performance. • Lower probability of an imminent Fed rate cut aids the greenback and caps gold’s upside. • US President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on the EU and Mexico increase global trade tensions and spike safe-haven demand. • Market sentiment remains weak, with investors on edge amid contradictory economic signals. • Near-term US CPI and PPI data are important for determining expectations about the Fed’s next move. • Technical support perceived around $3,300, with bulls looking for a possible move towards $3,400. • FOMC minutes indicate concerns about inflation, supporting speculation of delayed monetary easing. Gold continues to be in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset in a complicated mix of global economic and political developments. The most recent driver has been renewed tensions in trade, ignited by the threat of 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union and Mexico by US President Donald Trump. These declarations have shaken investor confidence, supplemented by an already risk-averse market climate. Consequently, demand for gold—historically regarded as a hedge against uncertainty—has been sustained despite headwinds from other economic influences. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, market participants are carefully watching signs from the US Federal Reserve on its monetary policy direction. Although there are still some officials worried about ongoing inflation, the general tone is one of no rush to cut rates immediately. This has supported the US Dollar and created uncertainty around the direction of gold. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for important US inflation readings this week, which are most likely to shape future Fed actions and set the general tone in the wider markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price recently crossed above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hourly chart and broke through the important $3,358–$3,360 resistance area, indicating bullish momentum. Bullish oscillators on both hourly and daily horizons indicate that the metal may resume its uptrend, with the next target at around the psychological $3,400 level. On the downside, near-term support is at about the $3,300 mark, followed by the $3,283–$3,282 range. A prolonged break below those levels may leave the metal vulnerable to a more significant pullback towards the July swing low around $3,248. FORECAST If safe-haven demand continues to build with rising trade tensions and global uncertainty, gold is set to retake higher ground. A sustained break above the $3,360 level could set the stage for a test of the psychological $3,400 level. Additional bullish pressure could be fueled by weak US inflation data or dovish Fed commentary, sending gold to fresh multi-week highs in the near term. Conversely, if future US economic indicators surprise on the upside and corroborate the argument against near-term rate cuts, the US Dollar can continue to appreciate further, putting downward pressure on gold prices. A fall below the critical $3,300 support level could initiate more selling pressure, sending the metal lower to the $3,283–$3,282 area. A clear cut-through of this level may expose gold to additional risk of decline, potentially stretching down to the $3,248–$3,247 support level.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Stands Firm with Trade Uncertainty and Divided Fed Cues

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  • July 10, 2025
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Gold prices maintain a firm bias for the second day running on the back of safe-haven demand due to rising trade tensions and a weakened US Dollar. Even as risk aversion is heightened by uncertainty about President Trump’s recent tariff policies, divided cues from the Federal Reserve on further rate cuts leave investors hesitant. The release of the FOMC minutes showed limited immediate support for a rate cut, capping gold’s upside despite falling US bond yields. As markets await US jobless claims data and further comments from Fed officials, gold remains range-bound near the $3,320 mark, with key resistance and support levels in focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • A key short-term trigger that could influence Fed rate cut expectations and Gold’s direction. • Any dovish or hawkish language would affect market sentiment surrounding interest rates and the USD. • Ongoing USD weakness and falling Treasury yields might be bullish for gold prices. • Reactions to Trump’s fresh tariffs and any retaliation will be a primary driver of safe-haven flows. Gold prices are holding up near $3,320 as investors grapple with a blend of global trade tensions and ambiguous Fed policy indications. President Trump’s most recent tariff announcements, such as a 50% tariff on copper imports, have further fueled market anxiety, pushing safe-haven flows into gold. The Fed’s meeting minutes meanwhile showed the policymakers were divided in their stance on rate cuts this month, although most policymakers continue to foresee easing later this year. This volatility, complemented by declining US bond yields and a weaker US Dollar, still provides underlying support to the non-yielding metal despite upside being capped by better risk sentiment in the equities. Gold prices are supported by increasing trade tensions and a weakening US Dollar, trading firmly around $3,320. Yet, dovish Fed signals and firmer equities are capping further gains. US jobless claims and Fed commentary are now awaited for direction. • Gold trades at $3,320 with a small intraday gain for the second consecutive day. • Trade tensions rise following Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and warning of no exemptions or extensions. • Mixed opinions about rate cuts in FOMC minutes, with minimal near-term support but anticipation of easing towards year-end. • US Dollar again weakens for the second straight day, supporting Gold’s safe-haven status. • US bond yields fall, following the strong 10-year Treasury auction, underpinning non-yielding assets such as Gold. • Technical resistance at $3,335 and $3,360; breaking through could take Gold up to the $3,400 level. •  Key data ahead includes US Weekly Jobless Claims and Fed speeches, which could drive short-term market direction. Gold continues under the spotlight as international financial markets respond to heightened trade tensions and shifting monetary policy expectations. The latest action from US President Donald Trump to introduce new tariffs on various trading partners, including a hefty 50% tariff on copper imports, has created uncertainty among investors. This geopolitical tension has rekindled demand for classic safe-haven assets such as gold, with market players seeking stability in the face of growing policy uncertainty and the possibility of retaliation from impacted countries. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting minutes reflect intramural discord, as some policymakers are not keen to reduce interest rates in the near future. Nonetheless, there is a general agreement that rate reductions might be necessary later in the year if inflation remains benign and trade tensions suppress economic growth. These themes, together with a deteriorating US Dollar and risk-averse sentiment, continue to provide a bullish environment for gold in the larger market context. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains at the $3,320 level with a marginal bullish bias. Initial resistance is at the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart around $3,335, followed by a stronger zone of supply between $3,358 and $3,360. A forceful breakout above this area might initiate more bullish pressure, perhaps driving prices towards the $3,400 psychological mark. To the downside, a break below the support at $3,300 might reveal the $3,283–3,282 area, with additional losses risking a descent towards the monthly low at $3,248–3,247. Generally, traders need to look out for a definitive breakout or breakdown from these decisive technical levels for affirmation of the next move. FORECAST If geopolitical tension continues to spike and the US Dollar stays pressured, gold prices may witness fresh buying interest. A breakout above the $3,335 resistance level would set the stage for a move towards the $3,358–3,360 supply zone. Sizing through this barrier may initiate a short-covering rally, which has the potential to drive prices towards the $3,400 psychological level in the near future, provided that forward US economic data or Fed rhetoric aids the rate-cutting case. On the other hand, if the US is not able to negotiate trade deals by the August 1 tariff deadline, worldwide trade tensions could rise aggressively, boosting the safe-haven US Dollar. Also, if near-term UK economic releases are disappointing or worry over rising national debt and geopolitical tensions picks up pace, the GBP could be underpinned. A breakdown below the 1.3500 psychological support level may result in additional declines towards the next major point at 1.3400.

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