Forex Trading Tools and Services

Commodities Gold

Gold Consolidates Below Record Highs as Traders Wait for Key US Labor Market Data

  • BY
  • September 4, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating below its all-time high of $3,578.50 as traders take profits and the US Dollar remains firm, tempering recent bullish momentum. Despite the respite, safe-haven demand is supported by softening US Treasury yields, tranquil global bond markets, and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. With investor attention now on the ADP Employment report and upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls, labor market data will be crucial in determining near-term direction for Gold prices. KEY LOOKOUTS • ADP Employment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be instrumental in deciding Gold’s next move. • Markets price in high probability of a September rate cut, supporting safe-haven demand. • A firm Dollar and softening bond yields continue to shape Gold’s short-term path. • Calmer conditions in Japan and the UK lower safe-haven rush but support amid persistent fiscal risks. Gold prices are taking a breather below record highs as investors weigh profit-taking against persistent safe-haven demand. While the US Dollar’s firmness is weighing on sentiment, softer Treasury yields and tranquil global bond markets are helping to cushion the downside. With the Federal Reserve widely anticipated to cut rates in September, attention now shifts to US labor market data, including the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which are poised to guide Gold’s near-term direction. Gold is consolidating below its record high as traders wait for key US labor market data. Softening Treasury yields and Fed rate cut expectations support safe-haven demand, while the US Dollar’s firmness caps upside momentum. • Gold reached a record high of $3,578.50 before consolidating around $3,540. • Profit-taking and a firm US Dollar are weighing on sentiment. • Softening US Treasury yields are helping to cap downside pressure. • Tranquil global bond markets lower safe-haven rush but still support Gold. • Markets are pricing in a September Fed rate cut, supporting bullish bias. • Investor attention shifts to ADP Employment data and Nonfarm Payrolls for labor market cues. • Key support is at $3,500–3,450, while resistance remains at the record high of $3,578. Gold is taking a breather after a record-breaking run that pushed prices to new record highs, with investors looking to the next US labor market data for direction. The yellow metal remains supported by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, as cheaper borrowing makes it more attractive as a safe-haven asset. Softer global bond markets and declining US Treasury yields have also supported sentiment, keeping bullion demand well supported despite light profit-taking. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView The overall environment for Gold remains supportive as economic uncertainty, global trade tensions, and fiscal credibility concerns in major economies continue to underpin its status as a risk hedge. With markets already fully pricing in policy easing from the Fed, investors are now looking to the ADP Employment report and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which are expected to dictate the direction of Gold’s next move. Meanwhile, the safe-haven theme continues to underpin the precious metal. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its record high of $3,578.50, with momentum indicators pointing to a potential cooling phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in overbought levels above 70 but is trending lower, indicating room for a pause or pullback. Prices are also testing the upper Bollinger Band at $3,543, indicating stretched bullish momentum and the potential for a retreat to the 20-day moving average at $3,398 if profit-taking intensifies. Immediate support is at $3,511 and $3,500, while resistance is at the $3,578 peak, with a breakout opening the way to the $3,600 level. FORECAST If US labor market data is softer than anticipated, Gold may regain strong bullish momentum as hopes for a September Fed rate cut intensify. A sustained break above the record high of $3,578 would open the way for a move to the psychological $3,600 level, with further potential for upside if safe-haven demand picks up pace amid continued global economic and fiscal uncertainties. Conversely, more robust US jobs data or a more resilient US Dollar may provoke more aggressive profit-taking, sending Gold lower in the near term. Critical support levels are at $3,511 and the $3,500 psychological level, with a further drop potentially reaching the $3,450 area. A breakdown below these levels could indicate a more extensive correction, although the long-term bullish bias is still in place.

Read More
Commodities Gold

Gold Retreats to $3,400 Ahead of US PCE Inflation Data as Dollar and Yields Strengthen

  • BY
  • August 29, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Gold is stabilizing around $3,407 after pulling back from the one-month high, with investors looking to the US core PCE inflation figures that will determine the Federal Reserve’s next step. A firming Dollar and stable Treasury yields are keeping prices under pressure, but safe-haven buying, tensions in geopolitics, and rate cut expectations are still favoring Gold’s overall bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Core PCE Price Index released today at 12:30 GMT will be the major determinant of Gold’s future direction. • A firmer US Dollar and solid Treasury yields are putting pressure on the precious metal. • Weaker PCE might fuel hopes for a September Fed rate cut, while stronger numbers might limit Gold’s upside. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and uncertainty surrounding Fed leadership remain supporting safe-haven demand. Gold is consolidating slightly above the $3,400 level on Friday after pulling back from one-month high of $3,423, as traders become cautious before the release of the US core PCE Price Index. A firmer US Dollar and stronger Treasury yields are behind the pressure on the precious metal, as profit booking contributes to the retreat. The markets look for core PCE to increase 0.3% on a monthly basis and 2.9% on a yearly basis, and the result should influence anticipation for a September Fed rate reduction. Although corrected briefly, geopolitical tensions, issues regarding Fed autonomy, and the general safe-haven nature of Gold remain in favor of its bullish predisposition. Gold retreats towards $3,400 as investors look to the US core PCE inflation reading, which is a critical indicator of the Fed policy path. The stronger US Dollar and consistent Treasury yields dampen the metal, although its safe-haven status is still intact due to geopolitical and policy risks. • Gold falls to about $3,407 after Thursday’s one-month high of $3,423. • A stronger US Dollar and flat Treasury yields are weighing on the metal. • Expectations for a July US core PCE Price Index increase to 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. • A softer result can solidify hopes of a September Fed rate cut. • Improved inflation figures would support the Dollar and add further pressure to Gold. • Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns of Fed independence sustain safe-haven buying. • Technical levels of importance: support around $3,400 and $3,395; resistance at $3,423 and $3,450. Gold is trading close to $3,407 on Friday, falling slightly after hitting a high not seen since late July. The decline comes as market players go cautious in the wake of the release of US core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, which is likely to indicate a slight increase. A firmer US Dollar and strong Treasury yields are also contributing to the sentiment, while month-end profit-taking added to the decline. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of the near-term consolidation, the overall outlook for Gold remains underpinned by enduring geopolitical tensions and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve. Safe-haven buying has been supported by continued tensions in Ukraine and the legal battle over the Fed governor’s removal attempt. Added to the anticipation of policy easing in the second half of this year, these points continue to support Gold’s long-term bullish story across global markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is trading just above the $3,400 psychological floor following Thursday’s surge to $3,423, its best level since late July. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has relaxed from overbought levels to about 61, indicating abating momentum but still in the buyers’ favor. The next support is at $3,400, followed by the 21-period EMA at about $3,395 and the 100-period EMA at about $3,365. On the positive side, there is resistance at $3,423, with a steady break paving the way towards the $3,450 zone. Generally, the technical setup indicates dips can find fresh buying interest if major supports remain intact. FORECAST If the coming US core PCE inflation data is softer than anticipated, it might increase speculation for a September Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar and increasing Gold demand. In that case, a powerful break above $3,423 could set the stage for further advances to the $3,450 area, continuing to support the bullish momentum as safe-haven demand stays high. On the other hand, a better-than-anticipated PCE print will likely stem dovish Fed bets, boost the Dollar, and pressure Gold prices. Falling through the $3,400 support level may prompt a retreat back to $3,395 and possibly further to the $3,380–$3,370 region, where renewed buying interest might be seen.

Read More