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Gold Hovers Near Record Levels as US Federal Reserve Rate Cut Spec Bets Lose Strength US Dollar

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  • September 16, 2025
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Gold prices hover around record levels after reaching the $3,690 level, as increasing hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut continue to spur weakness in the US Dollar and shore up the non-yielding metal. Though overbought conditions have driven marginal profit-taking in advance of pivotal central bank announcements this week, such as Fed, BoC, BoE, and BoJ decisions, downside for Gold is still limited. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the situation in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to support safe-haven demand, maintaining the overall Gold outlook bullish in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets overwhelmingly anticipate a 25 bps rate cut, with Powell’s cues for subsequent policy actions to influence Gold’s next path. • Policy statements from the BoC, BoE, and BoJ towards the end of this week can introduce volatility in Gold prices. • Overbought RSI readings above 70 indicate modest upside momentum at the $3,700 level, instilling caution for new entries. • Escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions continue to offer safe-haven support to Gold. Gold continues in a bullish consolidation close to record levels as investors wait for pivotal central bank announcements this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce rates by 25 bps, but the focus lies on Powell’s comments on the speed of future easing, which will have a significant bearing on the US Dollar and the path of Gold. While technicals indicate overbought levels that can constrain near-term gains above the $3,700 level, safe-haven demand fueled by recurring geopolitical tensions still buffers the downside, maintaining a positive tone for the precious metal. Gold hovers at all-time highs near $3,690 as Fed rate-cut speculation damps the US Dollar. Overbought levels restrain near-term upside, though geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand remain supportive of the bullish trend. • Gold approached a new record high at around $3,690 in the Asian session on Tuesday. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the US Dollar, supporting Gold’s allure. • Markets expect a 25 bps reduction with an eye on Powell’s hint on additional easing ahead. • Overbought RSI values greater than 70 indicate slim room for near-term upside profits. • Decision from major central banks from BoC, BoE, and BoJ this week could contribute to volatility. • Geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine fighting and Middle East unrest offer safe-haven support. • Firm support levels appear at $3,645 and $3,610, while $3,700 is the major resistance barrier. Gold is trading close to record highs as investors continue to be interested in the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision. As markets are mostly pricing in a 25 bps cut, all eyes now turn towards the Fed’s revised economic projections and Powell’s comments, which will likely influence expectations for the pace of easing over the next few months. The dovish bias has been putting significant downward pressure on the US Dollar, lifting demand for the non-yielding precious metal. XAU/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Apart from the Fed, investors are keeping a close eye on other central bank announcements this week, such as decisions by the Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. In addition, increased geopolitical tensions—covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict to renewed Middle East upheaval—are creating further safe-haven demand for Gold. This mix of supportive fundamentals and geopolitical tensions continues to have investor sentiment firmly bullish. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s recent breakout above a bullish flag pattern is an indicator of strong upside momentum, though the daily RSI remaining above 70 is an indicator of overbought conditions and caution is needed. The $3,700 level has now emerged as a critical psychological resistance, while near-term support is in the form of $3,645, followed by $3,610. A break and hold above $3,700 could lead to further increases, but a break below $3,600 could see a more severe corrective move towards the $3,500 area. FORECAST In the event that the Fed reaffirms a dovish policy and hints at several rate cuts in the near future, Gold can penetrate the $3,700 psychological level and continue its rally. Ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, combined with geopolitical tensions-driven safe-haven demand, may drive more upside momentum and maintain buyers firmly in charge. Conversely, if the Fed provides a dovish outlook or cues a slower pace of easing, Gold can come under profit-taking pressure. A retreat below $3,645 can put the $3,610–$3,600 zone in jeopardy, and a further fall can even put the $3,500 level in the spotlight, particularly if risk appetite picks up in overseas markets.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Holds Steady Near Record Highs Amid Trade Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Bets

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  • March 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate near its all-time highs, supported by rising trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Despite a subdued start to the week, the precious metal remains well bid due to safe-haven demand, while a weaker US Dollar further underpins the bullish outlook. Although China’s recent economic stimulus has improved global risk sentiment and capped immediate gains, the overall trend remains in favor of the bulls. Market participants now await the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh direction, with the broader setup suggesting potential for further upside momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS • All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is expected to provide clarity on interest rate cuts and drive the next major move in XAU/USD • Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising trade war fears continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, keeping it near record highs. • A weaker US Dollar, hovering near multi-month lows, remains a supportive factor for gold prices. Any shift in USD sentiment could influence gold’s direction. • Key support lies near $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 zones, while a sustained move above $3,000 could open doors for the next bullish leg in gold’s uptrend. As gold prices hover near record highs, market participants are closely watching several key factors that could influence the next move in XAU/USD. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision remains a critical event, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2025 supporting the bullish outlook for the non-yielding metal. At the same time, heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade conflicts continue to boost safe-haven demand. Additionally, the US Dollar’s weakness near multi-month lows lends further support to gold prices. On the technical front, crucial support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are in focus, while a clear break above the psychological $3,000 level could trigger a fresh bullish rally. Gold price remains well-supported near record highs amid Fed rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. A weaker US Dollar adds to the bullish momentum, while key technical levels around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 remain crucial for near-term direction. All eyes now turn to the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh cues. • Gold consolidates near all-time highs, staying just below the $3,000 psychological mark. • Safe-haven demand rises amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. • Fed rate cut expectations for 2025 continue to support the bullish outlook for XAU/USD. • US Dollar remains weak, hovering near multi-month lows, further boosting gold prices. • China’s economic stimulus lifts market sentiment, capping immediate gains in gold. • Technical support levels at $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are key zones to watch for any pullback. • The upcoming FOMC meeting is the most awaited event, likely to provide fresh direction for gold. Gold continues to hold its ground near record highs, driven by growing global uncertainties and strong safe-haven demand. Rising trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, including escalating situations in the Middle East and concerns over global economic stability, have reinforced gold’s appeal as a reliable store of value. Additionally, the market sentiment is being shaped by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates multiple times in 2025, as signs of economic slowdown and softer inflation data emerge in the U.S. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Adding to the supportive environment for gold, the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure amid these rate cut expectations, making the precious metal more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, including initiatives to boost domestic consumption and support the housing sector, have helped improve market confidence globally. However, gold continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe haven amid global instability, keeping it in focus for investors seeking long-term security. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, having recently broken above key resistance levels and now consolidating near its all-time highs. The overall market structure suggests continued upward momentum, supported by strong buying interest on any dips. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, signaling a possibility of short-term consolidation, the broader chart pattern still favors the bulls. Key support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 could act as potential entry points for buyers, while a sustained move above the $3,000 psychological mark may open the door for further upside in the coming sessions. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory if current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions persist. Expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, combined with ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties, could continue to fuel safe-haven demand. A sustained weak US Dollar would further support this bullish outlook, potentially pushing gold beyond the $3,000 psychological mark. If risk sentiment weakens and investors seek safety, gold could attract more inflows, paving the way for new record highs in the coming months. On the flip side, any signs of easing geopolitical tensions or a shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone toward a more hawkish stance could limit gold’s gains or even trigger a pullback. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US economic data or a rebound in the US Dollar may reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal. If global markets regain stability and risk appetite improves, investors might shift focus away from safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a moderate decline in prices from current elevated levels.

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