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Commodities Gold

Gold Falls on Robust US Jobs Data but Remains Ahead of Key Fed Meeting

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  • June 7, 2025
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Gold prices fell for a second consecutive day after a better-than-expected US May Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data sapped optimism for an immediate Federal Reserve rate cut and strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Even though it dropped 0.84% on Friday to $3,322, XAU/USD is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30%, underpinned by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying. Traders are now looking forward to next week’s inflation data releases and the Fed policy meeting soon, as the market re-adjusts for monetary easing further down the line in 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The strong NFP data lowers expectations for near-term rate reductions, with markets now pricing fewer than two cuts by the end of 2025. • XAU/USD needs to stay above the key $3,300 support or risk further losses down to $3,250 or lower. • Next week’s CPI, PPI, and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment could continue to drive market sentiment and Fed policy expectations. • Tensions between Ukraine and the Middle East, and constant central bank gold buying, continue to offer a positive environment for Gold. Gold prices declined on Friday after a better-than-expected US jobs report strengthened the US Dollar and Treasury yields and lowered chances of near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Even after the day’s loss, XAU/USD is still up more than 1.30% for the week, buoyed by persistent geopolitical tensions and consistent central bank buying. The market is now setting its sights on pivotal US inflation data releases later next week, which may further influence expectations leading up to the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting. Staying above the $3,300 support level is still vital for Gold to continue its bullish configuration in the near term. Gold declined following robust US jobs data reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut, pushing the Dollar and yields higher. Gold maintains weekly gains above 1.30% despite the decline, underpinned by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. •  Gold (XAU/USD) declined by 0.84% on Friday, trading around $3,322 following robust US NFP data. •  The US created 139K jobs in May, topping estimates and maintaining the unemployment level at 4.2%. • Hawkish data prompted traders to trim back Fed rate cut expectations, boosting the US Dollar and Treasury yields. • Gold is poised to end the week with gains of more than 1.30% despite losses on each day of the current week. • Key support for XAU/USD at $3,300 holds; a break here could see $3,250 or lower. • Market attention turns to next week’s US CPI, PPI, and consumer sentiment releases. •  Long-term bullish sentiment is supported by ongoing geopolitics risks and central bank gold purchases. Gold was strong this week despite being challenged by a stronger-than-forecast US Nonfarm Payrolls for May. The on-going strength in the labor market, with 139K new jobs added and unemployment remaining at 4.2%, supported the view that the US economy is still strong. This information changed market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory, prompting investors to reduce rate reduction bets in the short term. This caused the US Dollar and Treasury yields to rise, which temporarily weakened Gold prices. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Nonetheless, wider macroeconomic and geopolitical forces underpin the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset. Escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and persistent uncertainty among global financial markets have sustained demand for bullion. Further, central banks continue to buy Gold to diversify away from US Dollar reserves. These structural forces might still underpin the long-term value of Gold irrespective of short-term volatility in economic fundamentals or market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) is in an extended bull trend despite recent retreats. The price is consolidating above the support level of $3,300, which is a pivotal base for continued upward momentum. A breakout and hold above this level may set the stage for a retest of the high of late at $3,403, with additional upside to the $3,450 level and all-time high of $3,500. However, if XAU/USD breaches below $3,300, it could trigger a deeper correction toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly bearish, suggesting a possible continuation of short-term weakness before any rebound. FORECAST If Gold holds resistance above the $3,300 level, bullish interest may resume, which could propel XAU/USD back towards the recent high of $3,403. A breach above that level could attract additional buying, taking prices up to the $3,450 resistance zone. If bullish sentiment gains strength, particularly against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions or low inflation readings, Gold may even test its record high near $3,500 in the sessions ahead. On the other hand, a firm break below the $3,300 support would activate a steeper correction. In that case, Gold can go down towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average around $3,235, followed by the next major support area around $3,167, which was the high of early April. Strength in the US Dollar and increasing yields can provide additional pressure on the downside, especially if coming inflation data supports a hawkish Fed outlook.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Float below $3,300 as Traders Look to US PCE Data with Trade and Geopolitical Uncertainty Looming

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  • May 30, 2025
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Gold prices are kept in check below the $3,300 level as tame U.S. Dollar firmness puts pressure to the downside before the highly anticipated release of the U.S. PCE Price Index. Despite the dip, downside movement appears limited amid renewed trade tensions, ongoing geopolitical risks, and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. A reinstated tariff ruling and uncertainty surrounding global conflict zones have kept investor sentiment cautious, lending support to the safe-haven metal. Though technical indicators imply further downside potential, the majority of traders are in waiting mode for new impetus from U.S. inflation data, which could dictate the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Everyone is watching for the next U.S. inflation data release, which has the potential to have a meaningful impact on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations and near-term direction for the USD and gold. • Russia-Ukraine conflict developments and Middle East ceasefire negotiations still underpin safe-haven demand for gold, offering a potential defense against further losses. • Re-imposition of Trump’s tariffs and rumors of additional trade actions could inject pressure into the markets and indirectly support gold’s appeal in risk-off conditions. • Unclear signals from Fed officials regarding the timing and probability of interest rate reductions leave markets in suspense, rendering short-term gold direction dependent on upcoming data and comments. Investors should pay close attention to the publication of the U.S. PCE Price Index since it has the potential to dramatically alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and subsequently affect gold prices. Geopolitical tensions, such as the lack of progress in Middle East ceasefire talks and doubts over Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, continue to provide support to gold’s safe-haven allure. Furthermore, the revival of trade policy uncertainty since the reinstatement of Trump-era tariffs has added additional market volatility, which has made gold a popular hedge. In contrast, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials underscore the significance of future economic releases in informing monetary policy, leaving traders nervous and price dynamics in gold very responsive to further developments. Gold traders are monitoring the next U.S. PCE Price Index closely for hints at the Fed’s rate trajectory. Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty remain in favor of gold’s safe-haven status, limiting downside even with nascent USD firmness. •  Gold stays under $3,300 due to mild U.S. Dollar strength suppressing demand. •  Markets look to the U.S. PCE Price Index, which may frame rate-cut expectations at the Fed. •  Reinstalled Trump-style tariffs introduce trade uncertainty that favors safe-haven assets such as gold. •  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe keep supporting gold’s demand. •  Fed officials are still divided, sending conflicting signals on upcoming rate action. •  Technical indicators indicate bearish momentum, and there could be downside towards $3,245–$3,200. •  Resistance is at $3,325–$3,350 and the breach above might unleash fresh buying interest. Gold prices continue to weaken as market participants wait for the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be released, a core inflation measure that may have implications for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The information is likely to give more guidance on whether the Fed will continue with rate cuts in the second half of the year, a consideration that has made market players conservative. Although the U.S. Dollar has been mildly firmer, prospects of a more dovish Fed position in the months ahead still underpin interest in gold as a non-yielding asset generally. XAU/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides economic statistics, growing geopolitical tensions and reviving trade policy anxieties are keeping gold in the spotlight as a safe-haven asset. The latest imposition of tariffs by a U.S. federal appeals court, along with concurrent wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have contributed to worldwide uncertainty. These together with dovish comments by several Federal Reserve officials have been adding to a watch-and-wait mood in the market that has been upholding gold as a hedge against general macroeconomic and political uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold comes up against near-term resistance in the $3,325–$3,326 area, which has already failed to breach on higher attempts. The inability to break above the $3,300 level indicates no strong bullish strength, and short-term indicators are starting to reflect renewed selling pressure. If the price continues to have trouble below important resistance levels, a downward move to the next support zones could be expected. Yet any such sustained break above the $3,325 ceiling may initiate fresh buying interest and potentially leave the way open for a retest of upper levels. FORECAST If the future U.S. PCE figures indicate slowing inflation, this may further support Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year, weakening the U.S. Dollar and driving gold prices higher. In that case, gold could see fresh buying interest, with room to test levels higher than the $3,300 mark. A continued break past the $3,325–$3,350 resistance level could prompt short-covering and propel prices towards the $3,400 area, buoyed by safe-haven demand as geopolitical and trade tensions continue to hold sway. Conversely, in the event of PCE data surprise to the upside signifying sticky inflation, it might temper hopes of near-future Fed rate cuts and enhance the U.S. Dollar, putting fresh downward pressure on gold. In such a scenario, prices might fall further, with scope to test support levels at $3,280 and potentially carry losses up to the $3,245–$3,200 region. Further dollar strength or resolve on trade and geopolitical fronts would also diminish the safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to the bearish risk.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Stays Firm Around $33 Following US Economic Fears and Fed Policy Expectations

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  • March 24, 2025
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Prices for silver (XAG/USD) are flat around $33.00 due to a softening in the US Dollar and growing fears of a slowdown in the US economy supporting the metal. While the Federal Reserve continues to hold its rate cut forecast of two in the remainder of the year, enhanced risk sentiment and the White House’s new tariff plan may have downward pressure on silver. Market attention is now centered on significant US economic releases and continuing geopolitical events, such as tariff announcements and diplomatic negotiation, which are expected to impact silver’s short-term path. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are paying close attention to the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reading for March, which might provide new insight into economic strength and affect the US Dollar and price of silver. • The Fed’s determination to maintain its rate cut forecast for 2025 might keep having an impact on silver prices since lower interest rates tend to support non-yielding assets such as silver. • The White House’s updated tariff plan and its possible market effects may push silver volatility, particularly if tariffs affect inflation expectations or international trade sentiment. • Relaxation of geopolitical tensions and continued ceasefire talks in Ukraine might decrease safe-haven demand, adding more pressure on silver prices in the near term. Several key factors that may influence near-term price movements are being monitored closely by silver traders. Future US economic releases, especially the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March, will reveal the strength of the US economy and potentially weigh on the US Dollar trend. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve’s pledge to two rate cuts later in the year continues to be a key prop for precious metals since declining interest rates tend to favor non-yielding assets such as silver. Moreover, the White House’s new tariff policy and its implications for inflation and trade balance could influence sentiment. Geopolitically, de-escalating tensions and ceasefire talks in Ukraine can lower safe-haven demand, creating another dimension of complexity in silver prices. Silver prices are still under the limelight as markets watch for significant US economic reports and observe the Fed’s rate reduction outlook. New US tariff plans and decreasing geopolitical tensions can further dictate silver’s short-term path. • Silver (XAG/USD) stabilizes at $33.10 amidst a softer US Dollar and speculations regarding an impending US economic slowdown. • US Dollar Index recedes following a three-day rally, trading lower around 104.10. • Federal Reserve holds two rate cuts later this year on its watchlist, leaving the federal funds rate intact. • Silver prices and market sentiment may be influenced by future US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI figures in March. • White House reworks tariff policy, potentially reducing industry-specific tariffs while adding reciprocal tariffs. • Better risk sentiment could squeeze silver, as investors move out of safe-haven assets. • Geopolitical tensions relax after talks between Ukraine and the US, decreasing precious metal safe-haven demand. Silver continues to be a point of focus in worldwide markets amid ongoing economic uncertainty in the US, which continues to increase. A weak US Dollar on fears of an economic growth slowdown has boosted demand for precious metals such as silver. The Federal Reserve’s move to stand by its expectation of two interest rate reductions later in the year also has a large impact on investor mood, as diminishing interest rates usually drive up demand for non-yielding assets. In addition, shifting trade dynamics under the present administration have introduced another level of complexity into market forecasts, with the White House setting up to make an adjustment in its tariff approach. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from economic considerations, geopolitical events are also affecting the overall market sentiment. Recent diplomatic moves between the US and Ukraine indicate a shift towards de-escalating international tensions, which may slowly take away the demand for safe-haven assets like silver. At the same time, the market is watching closely how these policy shifts and international negotiations play out, as they could affect investor sentiment across different asset classes. With a mix of economic policy changes and shifting geopolitical scenarios, silver remains standing as a major asset in uncertain times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) has indicated stabilization around the $33.00 level following recent bear pressure. The metal is trying to form a support base around this region, indicating a possible phase of consolidation before the next shift. If silver holds above this crucial level, it could draw fresh buying interest; however, the traders must also look for resistance areas around prior swing highs. Momentum indicators are conflicting, showing market indecision, while trading volume is fairly moderate, suggesting cautious investor participation. FORECAST Silver could see further upside momentum if the US Dollar continues to weaken and economic worries escalate. A dovish tilt on the part of the Federal Reserve, and potential rate cuts, might underpin silver prices as it increases its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset. Any further jump in geopolitical tensions or increased safe-haven demand may also force silver higher. If market mood turns risk-averse and inflationary pressures become heavier in light of trade policy, silver could gain further as a hedge. Conversely, silver may come under downward pressure if future US economic data indicates resilience, making the US Dollar stronger and decreasing demand for safe-haven assets. Better risk sentiment, fueled by de-escalating geopolitical tensions and the White House’s new tariff approach, can also decrease demand for silver. In addition, if the Federal Reserve postpones or halts its rate cut schedule because of better-than-anticipated economic data, silver prices may find it difficult to sustain higher prices and can shift into a correcting phase.

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