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EUR/USD Plunges to 1.1700 as Bullish US Data Sends Greenback to 20-Day High

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  • September 25, 2025
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Euro dropped for a second day in a row against the US Dollar, with EUR/USD sliding towards the 1.1700 level as solid US economic data sent the Greenback to a 20-day high. Better-than-anticipated Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods Orders indicated strong US growth, while Q2 Core PCE inflation crept higher to 2.6%. The positive news supported the Dollar and made it more difficult for near-term Federal Reserve easing expectations, with markets now looking to Friday’s August Core PCE inflation print for new policy signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair is at its weakest since September 11, under pressure from widespread Dollar strength. • Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods all surpassed estimates, highlighting strong economic momentum. • Q2 Core PCE crept up to 2.6%, maintaining inflation risks in focus. • Friday’s report will influence Federal Reserve policy expectations as well as market sentiment. EUR/USD still under pressure as robust US economic data feeds the Dollar’s strength, driving the pair to the 1.1700 handle. Strong Jobless Claims, above-consensus Q2 GDP, and increasing Durable Goods Orders reflect strong US growth, while Q2 Core PCE inflation of 2.6% reflects ongoing inflationary pressures. Friday’s August Core PCE inflation report will now be in the market’s focus, which can impact the policy direction of the Federal Reserve and decide the timing of any future rate hikes. EUR/USD drops towards 1.1700 as solid US data lifts the Dollar. Strong GDP, Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods point towards strong growth, with markets looking at Friday’s Core PCE inflation for Fed policy signals. • EUR/USD drops to the 1.1700 level, its lowest since September 11. • US Dollar Index (DXY) leaps to a 20-day high at 98.16. • Initial Jobless Claims were 218K, better than forecasted 235K. • Q2 US GDP was upwardly revised to a yearly 3.8%, higher than expectations. • Durable Goods Orders also climbed 2.9% in August, a sign of robust business spending. • Q2 Core PCE inflation rose modestly to 2.6%, a sign of ongoing inflation. • Attention turns to Friday’s release of August Core PCE inflation, important for Fed policy expectations. The Euro has lost ground against the US Dollar for the second day in a row, in response to the influence of positive US economic news. Favorable updates on Jobless Claims, GDP, and Durable Goods Orders point to the strength of the US economy, sending a signal of optimism for the Greenback. This change in sentiment is propelling the Euro to trade around the 1.1700 level, hinting at a cautious bias for the currency pair. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Investors are now watching closely for the upcoming economic announcements, specifically the August Core PCE inflation report, which is said to influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy actions. The marriage of steady US growth and chronic inflation worries is influencing market expectations as traders weigh potential pace and magnitude of any monetary policy adjustment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is probing important support around the 1.1700 psychological level, which has served as a near-term base in recent trading sessions. The pair remains below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, reflecting bearish momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining close to 40, reflecting potential for additional declines if selling pressure endures. Traders will keep a close eye on whether the pair can sustain above this support or a breakdown below could lead the way to the next technical levels at 1.1650. FORECAST EUR/USD can be expected to experience sustained pressure in the short term if the US Dollar continues to hold on to its strength, bolstered by strong economic reports. A dip below the 1.1700 support can drive the pair towards the subsequent levels of 1.1650–1.1600, indicating bearish strength and guarded Euro sentiments. But any hint at decelerating US inflation or softer-than-expected data will be welcome for the Euro, and a possible bounce back to 1.1750–1.1800 can be expected. The upcoming economic releases, especially the August Core PCE report, will closely be monitored by the traders and could lead to short-term volatility and determine the pair’s direction.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Looks Up to 148 as Japanese Yen Weakens Due to Dismal Manufacturing PMI and BoJ-Fed Policy Divergence

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  • September 24, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues to feel the pressure from a widely stronger US Dollar, with the USD/JPY currency pair standing at the threshold of the 148.00 level due to a disheartening Japan Manufacturing PMI figure. Domestic political angst and weak manufacturing figures have created concerns about delayed BoJ interest rate hikes, with expectations of additional Fed rate cuts continuing to prop up the USD. In spite of the Yen’s weak tone, safe-haven buying and policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed could cap big losses, holding the USD/JPY pair within a classic consolidation range before major US and Japanese economic releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • The latest reading of 48.4 points to the sharpest six-month contraction, keeping the Yen under pressure. • Investors closely observe for possible rate increases or dovish trends, particularly before the LDP leadership election on October 4. • Fed Chair Powell’s remarks about inflation and job preservation suggest fewer imminent rate cuts, favoring the US Dollar. • Major releases such as US New Home Sales, last GDP, PCE Price Index, and Tokyo CPI may shape USD/JPY direction in the short term. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure versus the US Dollar as poor manufacturing numbers and local political instability undermine market sentiment. Although the BoJ keeps the door open for rate increases, investor attention is pinned on the release of future economic data, ranging from the Tokyo CPI to US macro releases like GDP and PCE data. On the other hand, conflicting monetary policies—a dovish Fed forward guidance and prospective BoJ tightening—are maintaining the USD/JPY pair in a range, and the 148.00 level is being used as an important near-term resistance. Japanese Yen drops against the US Dollar on poor manufacturing figures and BoJ policy indecision. USD/JPY sticks around 148.00, with near-term action expected to be influenced by coming US and Japan economic indicators. Policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ could cap major Yen losses. • USD/JPY trades around 148.00 as the Japanese Yen weakens against a stronger US Dollar. • Japan Manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.4 in September, the quickest rate of contraction in six months. • Domestic political uncertainty leading up to the LDP leadership election may hold back BoJ rate hikes. • BoJ continues to keep policy normalization in mind despite recent economic weakness. • Fed Chair Powell’s comments indicate fewer near-term rate cuts, which are positive for USD demand. • Primary near-term data, such as US GDP, PCE, and Tokyo CPI, will have the potential to shape USD/JPY direction. • Technicals show resistance at 148.00–148.55 and support at 147.00–146.20 levels. The Japanese Yen continues to be pressured as poor manufacturing statistics and local political instability are creating overhang on the market mood. The S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.4 in September, the steepest decline in six months, and yet another sign of stress for the Japanese economy. Investors are carefully monitoring the Bank of Japan’s policy stance, particularly the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election scheduled on October 4, which can affect the pace of future rate hikes. Although these remain concerns, market players still expect the BoJ to continue pursuing policy normalization if economic conditions are in accordance with its predictions. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView While that, the US Dollar finds support on hopes for a more dovish Federal Reserve policy come later this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent words on striking a balance between inflation and jobs have further upheld guarded optimism for the USD, keeping investors on their toes for future US economic releases, such as New Home Sales, GDP, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. Geopolitical tensions and safe-haven requirement also contribute to containing the losses of Yen, leading to a defensive market condition in which players are expecting new economic signals coming from Japan and the United States. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is in consolidation inside a well-known range since early August, creating a rectangle pattern that indicates the period of indecision. Near-term resistance is at the 148.00 round figure, followed closely by the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at its midpoint. Support comes in at mid-147.00s on the downside, with additional levels at 147.00 and 146.20. Neutral daily chart oscillators imply caution, and a sustained break above resistance or below support would be required to confirm a distinct near-term trend. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair is able to breach the resistance at 148.00, it may test the 148.35–148.55 region, with the 200-day SMA as a major hurdle. A prolonged breach past this can pave the way towards the 149.00 level and possibly the monthly top around 149.15, particularly if US Dollar buying demand is boosted by hawkish economic news or risk-on mood in world markets. On the negative side, a fall below the mid-147.00s would have the pair probing support at 147.20, then 147.00. A further fall below here could drive losses towards 146.20, with further extension to 145.50–145.45, which is the lowest since early July. Dovish Fed cues, safe-haven interest, or softer-than-expected US economic data are likely to trigger yen strength.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies as Bets on Fed Rate Cut Rise and China’s Soft Inflation Dims Outlook

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  • September 10, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) steadied on Wednesday, erasing earlier losses as prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September improved sentiment, while weakening bets of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut added to support. Yet, the currency came under pressure following China’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline of 0.4% year-on-year, which reflected lingering economic softness in Australia’s biggest trade partner. Better domestic data, such as a larger trade surplus, improved Q2 GDP growth, and hotter July inflation, have served to contain risks to the downside for the AUD. Market attention turns to the forthcoming US inflation data, which may offer clearer signals for the Fed’s policy direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Over 93% chances of September 25 bps cut priced in by markets can weigh on the US Dollar and lift the AUD. • 0.4% YoY drop in August CPI is a sign of weak demand in China, which may put pressure on the Australian Dollar because of trade relationships. • Huge trade surplus, GDP expansion, and hotter inflation diminish prospects of imminent RBA rate cuts, providing AUD with some grounding. • This week’s US PPI and CPI reports will be important in gauging the direction of Fed policy and AUD/USD action. The Australian Dollar fluctuated with strength on Wednesday, aided by increasing expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate reduction and diminishing prospects of near-term easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Sturdy domestic underpinnings in the form of a bigger trade surplus, stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP growth, and increased July inflation countered the negative pressure from subdued Chinese inflation data that declined more than anticipated and reflects continued economic weakness in Australia’s main trading partner. As markets placed more than 93% probability of a Fed cut this month, the focus now shifts to future US inflation releases, which may steer the next big move in the AUD/USD pair. The Australian Dollar remained stable as bets on Fed rate cuts improved sentiment, with top-tier Australian data capping downside risks. Weak Chinese inflation, however, kept the currency under pressure, with the focus now shifting to pivotal US inflation reports for direction. • The Australian Dollar stabilized as anticipation for a September Federal Reserve rate reduction grew stronger. • RBA rate cut expectations have eased on the back of Australia’s firmer trade surplus, GDP expansion, and hotter July inflation. • China’s CPI dropped 0.4% YoY in August, pointing to continued weakness in Australia’s major trading partner’s economy. • Markets now place in excess of 93% probability of a Fed 25 bps reduction this month, from 86% last week. • US Nonfarm Payrolls increased a meager 22,000 in August, well short of projections, while unemployment ticked higher to 4.3%. • Australian consumer confidence has deteriorated, portending possible requirement for future RBA easing despite short-term stability. • Market attention turns to the coming US PPI and CPI releases, which will be instrumental for setting Fed policy expectations and AUD/USD direction. The Australian Dollar gained some stability during the middle of the week as markets factored in firmer chances of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and dovish expectations on short-term Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) action provided further support. The economic environment for Australia is still quite solid, with a larger July trade surplus, better-than-forecast second-quarter GDP growth, and hotter-than-expected July inflation supporting the case for the RBA to keep policy unchanged in the near term. All these have assisted in protecting the AUD from external pressures, especially from China’s softer economic performance. AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, highlighting weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy and Australia’s most important trading partner. This puts in doubt how weakness in China can spill into Australian exports. While in the United States, the labor market is softer than earlier anticipated, with Nonfarm Payrolls falling below forecast and benchmark revisions indicating weaker employment growth. Market players now await US inflation reports, which will probably determine the next move by the Federal Reserve and affect overall currency market sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD currency pair trades around 0.6580, showing a bullish inclination within its daily chart rising channel. The price stays above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6556, which indicates short-term buying momentum. The immediate resistance is the 10-month high of 0.6625 in late July, followed by the top of the rising channel at around 0.6640. A break above this range could provide the catalyst for a move towards the 11-month high of 0.6687. Conversely, a breakdown below the 0.6550–0.6556 area would undermine the bullish thesis, with the 50-day EMA level of 0.6512 being the next main support. FORECAST The Australian Dollar may get additional traction if future US inflation reports support the September Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. A dovish Fed perspective, combined with Australia’s stronger trade surplus, Q2 GDP growth, and higher July inflation, may aid further strength in the AUD/USD pair. A continuation above the 0.6625–0.6640 resistance area will most likely persuade buyers to move towards the 11-month high of 0.6687. On the other hand, poor Chinese economic figures keep bearing down on sentiment, and any additional weakness in demand may cap the Australian Dollar’s upside. Unless the AUD/USD pair manages to stay above the 0.6550 support zone, it may move down towards the 50-day EMA level of 0.6512, with even deeper losses revealing the three-month low of 0.6414. Also, better-than-anticipated US inflation readings will postpone Fed easing intentions, providing the US Dollar renewed vigor and pushing the pair lower.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Dips Toward Two-Month Lows Ahead of US Jobs Benchmark Revision

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  • September 9, 2025
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The US Dollar is weakening against the Swiss Franc for the third consecutive day, with the USD/CHF pair approaching two-month lows near 0.7910. Market attention is focused on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) benchmark revision, which is expected to reveal significant job losses over the past year, potentially up to 800,000. Fears about a worsening jobs market are driving hopes of an imminent Federal Reserve big rate cut. The Swiss National Bank, however, is being prudent, with President Martin Schlegel set to remain in neutral on negative interest rates, signaling possible dangers for savers and pension funds. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market watches for US jobs data revision, likely to reflect deep employment losses, which may initiate Fed monetary easing. • A hint at labor market weakness may lead to expectations of a jumbo rate reduction in the next Fed meeting. • USD/CHF is moving towards its crucial support levels at 0.7910 and 0.7872, the lowest since 2011. • SNB President Martin Schlegel’s soon-to-be-delivered speech may affect market mood, especially as it relates to negative interest rate policies. The USD/CHF currency pair is under selling pressure, moving downwards towards two-month lows as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision in the coming days, which is likely to reflect hefty job losses in the last one year. Poor employment numbers in the US may further increase hopes for a large Federal Reserve rate cut, putting more selling pressure on the Greenback. Technical levels are also under scrutiny, with the currency approaching crucial support of 0.7910 and 0.7872, which is its weakest level since 2011. The Swiss National Bank is meanwhile likely to play it safe, with President Martin Schlegel set to temper expectations for negative interest rates because of possible dangers to savers and pension funds. USD/CHF creeps closer to two-month lows ahead of the US NFP benchmark revision, which is due to indicate substantial job losses. Soft US jobs data would drive expectations for a Fed rate cut, while the SNB warns against negative interest rates. • USD/CHF approaches two-month lows at 0.7910 with a softening US Dollar. • The pair has declined for three consecutive days, near major support levels. • Focus is on the next US NFP benchmark revision next week, likely to reflect sharp job losses. • A weakening US labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to think of a jumbo rate cut. • Intraday lows at 0.7920 take the pair to within a whisker of the 23 July low at 0.7910. • The main support is at 0.7872, levels not touched since 2011. • SNB President Martin Schlegel is likely to renew warnings against negative interest rates, highlighting threats to savers and pension funds. The US Dollar remains under pressure against the Swiss Franc as investors focus on the soon-to-be-revised US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark. The revised employment data for the last 12 months are likely to reflect substantial job losses, underscoring a weakening US labor market. Fears of declining employment data are increasing expectations of the Federal Reserve incorporating strong monetary easing in its future meetings to stimulate economic growth. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In the meantime, the Swiss National Bank is being careful, and President Martin Schlegel is likely to stress the dangers of driving interest rates below zero. His focus will be on the security of savers and pension funds, hinting the SNB is not eager to pursue a more forceful easing strategy. This care with a weakening US Dollar is influencing market mood as buyers wait for crucial economic news from both sides. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is moving toward key support levels, with the pair probing intraday lows around 0.7920 and closely watching over the 23 July low at 0.7910. A break below the latter might set the way for the next significant support at 0.7872, the lowest since 2011. Momentum indicators confirm bearish sentiment is gathering pace, while near-term resistance continues to be around 0.7955–0.7970, offering potential barriers to any retracement higher. Traders are set to watch these levels very intently for breakout or reversal signals. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair may extend its decline if the US NFP benchmark revision validates a steep fall in employment, supporting views of an aggressive Fed rate reduction. Under this circumstance, the pair can test crucial support at 0.7910 and, if breached, can slide towards 0.7872, levels last seen in 2011. Sustained weakness in the US Dollar could provide support to selling pressure in the near term. On the other hand, any upbeat surprise in the US jobs data or hints of moderation in Fed easing can ignite a brief respite. Under such a scenario, USD/CHF can try to regain the levels around 0.7955–0.7970 resistance zones. However, considering the current market sentiment, upside actions might remain restricted unless accompanied by better-than-expected economic data or fresh risk appetite.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Hardens as BoJ Policy Divergence and Positive Domestic Data Spur USD/JPY Near 148.00

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  • September 5, 2025
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The Japanese Yen hardens versus the US Dollar as positive domestic data and policy divergence with the Federal Reserve underpin its attractiveness. Japan’s real wages became positive for the first time in seven months, while household spending also indicated an increase, supporting prospects of further normalization in Bank of Japan policy direction. Meanwhile, market speculations about upcoming Fed rate reductions continue to bear down on the USD, pinning down USD/JPY around the 148.00 level. Trade sentiment, in the wake of the US reducing tariffs on Japanese auto imports, also weighs in favor of the Yen, and traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for better guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Strong wage growth and steady inflation above target fuel expectations of an imminent BoJ rate hike. • Markets widely anticipate at least two Fed rate cuts this year, weighing on the USD. • USD/JPY struggles near the 148.00 mark, with 147.40–146.70 seen as key supports and 148.75–149.20 as resistance zones. • The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial in shaping Fed policy expectations and near-term USD/JPY direction. Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar, buoyed by positive domestic news and policy divergence from the Federal Reserve. Japan’s real wages increased for the first time in seven months, accompanied by increased household expenditure, supporting hopes that the Bank of Japan will continue down its policy normalization process. In comparison, the USD continues to come under pressure as markets start to increasingly price in future Fed rate reductions. Contributing to the firmness of the Yen, trade optimism has firmed up after the US announced the reduction of tariffs on Japanese auto imports. With USD/JPY stalled around the 148.00 level, traders now look to the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for new direction cues in the pair. Japanese Yen holds firm versus the US Dollar as solid domestic data and expectations of BoJ policy improve its prospects. On the other hand, USD is under pressure due to Fed rate cut expectations, keeping USD/JPY subdued near 148.00 levels before the US Nonfarm Payrolls announcement. • Japanese Yen gets stronger as positive domestic data improves sentiment. •Japan’s real wages turn positive for the first time in seven months. • Household spending rises in July, reinforcing BoJ policy normalization expectations. • Inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target, supporting a hawkish outlook. • Fed rate cut bets keep the US Dollar under pressure. • US lowers tariffs on Japanese automobile imports, adding to trade optimism. • USD/JPY struggles near 148.00, with traders awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for direction. The Japanese Yen is finding support as new local data points to strength in the economy of Japan. Real wages finally became positive for the first time in seven months, indicating improving household buying power, with spending also showing growth, though below expectations. This reinforces the belief that the Bank of Japan will remain on its path of policy normalization, particularly with inflation remaining above 2% target. Meanwhile, trade sentiment got a boost after the United States dropped its plan to reduce tariffs on Japanese auto imports, easing a major source of worry for businesses and investors. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar continues to find it tough to inspire a robust buying interest with expectations growing that the Federal Reserve will soon initiate cutting borrowing costs. Markets are already discounting the likelihood of several rate cuts throughout the year, which has kept demand for USD in check. In this context, market participants are keenly awaiting the publication of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report to get an updated picture of US labor market health and Fed policy direction. The information will probably have a key part to play in determining near-term sentiment around the USD/JPY pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is under intense pressure as the pair fails to maintain itself above the 148.00 level, an important psychological and structural support level. Repeated inability to break through the 200-day Simple Moving Average, located around 148.75–148.80, indicates weak bullish momentum in the short term. A persistent break below 148.00 might open the way towards the 147.40–147.00 area, with further losses revealing the 146.20–146.00 area. On the other hand, a decisive break above the 149.20 resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest drop, might restore momentum in favor of buyers and clear the way for a move towards the 150.00 psychological level. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to stay above the 148.00 support and break above the 148.75–149.20 resistance area, the onus would shift back in favor of buyers. This would pave the way for a rally to the 150.00 psychological level, with the chances of further upmove towards the August swing high around 151.00. Stricter-than-anticipated US economic figures, especially those in the Nonfarm Payrolls report, might be the stimulus for this rally by momentarily lowering expectations for Fed rate cuts. Conversely, a persistent decline below the 148.00 level would strengthen bearish momentum and initiate fresh selling pressure. This would enhance declines towards the 147.40 support level, and then further downwards towards the 147.00 and 146.70 levels. A decisive breach of 146.70 would reveal the 146.20–146.00 area, potentially triggering a more extensive corrective move. Poor US data or more robust hints of BoJ tightening would tend to be drivers towards this downside route.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Remains Steady as BoE Sends Mixed Signals on Uncertain Path for Interest Rate Cuts

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  • September 4, 2025
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Pound Sterling traded generally stable on Thursday as Bank of England (BoE) policymakers sent mixed signals on the future direction of interest rates during testimony to the Treasury Committee. Governor Andrew Bailey pointed to high uncertainty over the pace of rate cuts, citing inflation and employment risks, while other policymakers were hawkish, warning against premature easing. Conversely, MPC member Alan Taylor preferred faster cuts, highlighting internal divisions within the BoE. Meanwhile, GBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3435 as investors turned attention to key US economic releases, including ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI, with markets also considering increased expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. KEY LOOKOUTS • Governor Bailey pointed to uncertainty on the pace of rate cuts, while some policymakers emphasized inflation risks and others urged faster easing. • The pair trades around 1.3435, below the 20-day EMA, with a near-term bearish bias. • Markets look to ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI, key releases for Fed policy expectations. • Weaker US job data has driven the probability of a September rate cut to almost 98%, maintaining USD volatility high. The Pound Sterling is trading steadily against major counterparts as mixed signals from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers leave investors in the dark about the direction of interest rates. Governor Andrew Bailey pointed to doubts over how rapidly cuts can be delivered, while some officials cautioned against premature easing due to ongoing inflation risks. Conversely, others called for faster reductions to support growth, highlighting a divided policy outlook. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD edged lower toward 1.3435 as traders turned attention to key US economic releases, with Fed rate cut expectations already fueling increased volatility in the Dollar. Pound Sterling remains steady as BoE policymakers send mixed signals on the pace of future rate cuts. GBP/USD trades around 1.3435, with investors looking to key US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI data to assess the Fed’s policy outlook. • The Pound Sterling trades generally stable following BoE policymakers’ comments before the Treasury Committee. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey indicated doubt over the speed of future rate reductions, citing inflation and employment market risks. • Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and policymaker Megan Greene were hawkish, cautioning against premature easing. • MPC member Alan Taylor preferred more rapid cuts, describing recent inflation rises as temporary and advocating more aggressive rate reductions. • GBP/USD fell towards 1.3435, below the 20-day EMA, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. • Markets now assign a 97.6% probability of a Fed rate cut in September after weak US job openings data. • Investors look to US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI data, due to guide near-term USD direction. The Pound Sterling held firm on Thursday as the Bank of England (BoE) officials provided a combination of cautious and hawkish signals on the interest rate outlook. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized uncertainty over how rapidly the central bank could cut rates, citing concerns over both inflation pressures and employment market risks. Meanwhile, Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and policymaker Megan Greene were firm on inflation, cautioning that easing monetary policy too early could jeopardize the BoE’s 2% inflation target. Their comments were in line with the central bank’s cautious approach to balancing growth with price stability. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor advocated a more rapid pace of rate reductions, seeing recent inflation rises as temporary and calling for more aggressive action to support economic activity. This split within the BoE highlights the nuance of the current policy debate, with officials divided between tackling inflationary risks and avoiding stress on the labor market. Meanwhile, investor focus has turned to forthcoming US economic releases, in particular the ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI data, as these will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory in the weeks ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair is indicating near-term weakness as it trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3463, indicating bearish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the neutral 40–60 zone, reflecting a lack of strong directional bias but leaning slightly to the downside. The key support is near the August 1 low of 1.3140, which, if breached, could pave the way for further losses. On the upside, the August 14 high around 1.3600 is a major resistance level, and a sustained break above it would be needed to indicate a bullish reversal. FORECAST If US data, especially ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI, fails to meet expectations, the US Dollar may weaken, supporting GBP/USD. A sustained rally above the 20-day EMA at 1.3463 may pave the way towards 1.3600, the August 14 high, which is a key resistance level. Positive surprises from UK economic data or a more dovish bias from the Federal Reserve could also support Sterling, keeping buyers engaged in the near term. Conversely, better-than-expected US economic data may support the Dollar, putting further pressure on GBP/USD. A break below near-term support levels may drive the pair towards the August 1 low of 1.3140, which is a critical downside target. Moreover, ongoing uncertainty regarding the BoE’s monetary policy direction and ongoing inflation concerns in the UK may cap Sterling’s resilience, raising the risk of deeper losses if global risk sentiment is in favor of the Greenback.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Rises on Fed Cook’s Sacking, Eliciting Dollar Sentiment, Investors Await Canada GDP and Trade Negotiations

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  • August 27, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair rose to about 1.3850 during Wednesday’s late Asian trading following the US Dollar’s appreciation even as the Federal Reserve faced political uncertainty after President Donald Trump sacked Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has threatened to contest the move in the courts legally. Anxiety regarding the integrity of US institutions has burdened the Greenback, with Canadian Dollar traders looking to clarity from the forthcoming US-Canada trade talks and this Friday’s release of Canada’s Q2 GDP figures to guide the Loonie’s short-term direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Political tensions escalate following President Trump’s sacking of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising questions regarding the integrity of US financial institutions. • Cook’s move to sue over her firing puts additional pressure on the stability of the US Dollar. • Investors watch closely for Canadian official-US counterpart talks for possible trade concessions. • Canadian GDP and June and Q2 figures, to be released Friday, are predicted to give the Canadian Dollar new direction. USD/CAD currency pair edged up near 1.3850 on Wednesday as the US Dollar slightly benefited despite political unrest over the Federal Reserve. The confidence of the Greenback in the market has been rattled following President Trump’s sudden removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, leading her to seek legal recourse over the move. The political drama has left US institutions’ credibility in question, with investors now being cautious. In the meantime, the Canadian Dollar moves sideways as markets wait for developments on US-Canada trade negotiations and the release of Canada’s Q2 GDP figures, both of which are expected to shape the Loonie’s next direction. USD/CAD hovers around 1.3850 as the US Dollar resists despite Fed uncertainty following Governor Lisa Cook’s removal. Market players remain on hold until US-Canada trade talks and Canada’s Q2 GDP release later Friday. • USD/CAD ticks higher to about 1.3850 in Wednesday late Asian dealing. • US Dollar rises modestly with the DXY at 98.35 amid political uncertainty. • President Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook creates institutional credibility issues. • Lisa Cook will sue to overturn her firing, ratcheting up political tensions. • Market sentiment is still wary of US financial decision-making stability. • Canadian Dollar moves horizontally as investors wait for updates on US-Canada trade negotiations. • Canada’s Q2 and June GDP figures, released Friday, may take direction of the Loonie. The USD/CAD currency pair has witnessed small increases as political instability in the US continues to take its toll on investor morale. The abrupt firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump is making the credibility and stability of US financial institutions questionable. Faced with this, Cook has announced intentions to pursue a lawsuit against her termination, putting more pressure on the market. In spite of this, the US Dollar has remained relatively strong, indicating careful optimism in investors. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the Canadian side, the spotlight is on future trade talks with the United States and local economic indicators. Canadian government representatives, such as cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc, have been in talks with American counterparts in order to obtain trade concessions, which have indicated movement toward a possible deal. In the meantime, investors are setting their sights for the announcement of Canada’s Q2 GDP figures, which should give guidance regarding the nation’s economic performance and determine the near-term direction of the Canadian Dollar. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD trades at 1.3850, with a light positive bias as the pair tests short-term resistance. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trading around 98.35 facilitates the Loonie pair’s small gains, while major moving averages indicate minimal momentum in either direction. The first support is expected near 1.3800, with the first resistance around 1.3900, pointing towards a likely consolidation phase till the big economic or political drivers spark a conclusive breakout. Traders can seek validation from trend and volume indicators before taking a directional view. FORECAST In the near term, USD/CAD could experience modest upside to the 1.3900 level if the US Dollar continues to find itself supported in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Positive news in the US-Canada trade negotiations or a stronger-than-projected US economic outlook can further support the pair, prompting prudent bullish sentiments from traders. Alternatively, the pair is likely to experience downward pressure if doubts about the credibility of the US Federal Reserve grow or if Canada’s Q2 GDP figures are better than projected, a prospect that would boost the Loonie. Significant support of the order of 1.3800 would be tested under such circumstances, with further slides likely should broader market risk perception turn against the Canadian Currency.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Edges Up to 0.8050 as US Dollar Strengthens; Market Now Awaits Swiss Trade Balance and US PMIs

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  • August 21, 2025
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USD/CHF edged up to 0.8050 during Thursday’s Asian session as the US Dollar drew strength from the Federal Reserve’s measured approach in its latest FOMC Meeting Minutes. The minutes reflected policymakers’ concerns over ongoing inflation while keeping rates within the 4.25%–4.50% range despite mounting calls for a loosening of policies. Traders, however, are pricing in an 82% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, with markets waiting for clarification from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. From the Swiss side, inflation is still contained below the SNB target of 2%, while the just-imposed 39% US tariff on imports from Switzerland is likely to exert pressure on the export-dependent economy of Switzerland and push the Swiss National Bank to further ease. Coming Swiss Trade Balance data and US PMI readings are still under the spotlight. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Fed’s conservative approach to inflation risks underpinned the US Dollar, as markets now price in a 82% probability of a September rate cut. • Marketers look forward to the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who may bring new policy indications for the September meeting. • A recently introduced 39% US tariff on Swiss imports jeopardizes Switzerland’s export-oriented economy and could force the SNB to further ease. • Swiss Trade Balance numbers and US PMI are under the spotlight for short-term market direction in USD/CHF. USD/CHF is quoting around 0.8050 as the US Dollar gains on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s prudent tone during its July meeting minutes, when inflation risks were given precedence over labor issues. Market sentiment perceives an 82% chance of a September rate cut, and investors are now looking forward to Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for more cues. On the Swiss side, low inflation below the SNB’s 2% target and the imposition of a new 39% US tariff on Swiss imports challenge the export-oriented economy, which could heighten pressure on the central bank to embrace more easing measures. Traders now look to the Swiss Trade Balance data and US PMI numbers for further direction. USD/CHF creeps higher to 0.8050 with the US Dollar finding support in the Fed’s guarded approach to inflation. Investors watch out for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, Swiss Trade Balance figures, and US PMIs for new direction in markets. • USD/CHF hovers around 0.8050, bouncing back from a 0.5% decline in the last session. • FOMC Minutes indicated policymakers were being cautious, focusing more on inflation risks rather than labor issues. • Fed funds futures show an 82% probability of a September rate cut. • Markets hold their breath for Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to see policy clarity. • The US applied a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, jeopardizing Switzerland’s export-based economy. • Swiss inflation continues below the SNB’s 2% target, raising expectations for more easing. • Traders look to near-term guidance from Swiss Trade Balance releases and US PMI print. The US Dollar appreciated following the release of the most recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated that policymakers are still cautious, prioritizing inflation concerns in their decisions. While interest rates were unchanged, markets are broadly anticipating a rate cut in September, with traders taking keen interest in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium for further policy cues. The prudent stance underscores the Fed’s fine balancing act between inflation risk and economic stability. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the Swiss side, economic woes are mounting with the new 39% US tariff on imports from Switzerland poised to jeopardize the nation’s export-based economy. With inflation well beneath the Swiss National Bank target of 2%, expectations for additional monetary easing continue to be high. Investors will also be paying close attention to future Swiss Trade Balance readings, which will provide further clarity on the state of Switzerland’s economy in resistance to outside pressures. Later in the day, US PMI releases will provide further insight into business activity and the health of the economy overall. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating at around the 0.8050 level following its recent drop, indicating short-term buying interest. The pair is coming across immediate support at around the 0.8020 area, with the next resistance at around 0.8085. A firm breach above this area could lead the way toward 0.8120, while a fall below 0.8020 could see additional downside risks toward 0.7980. Overall, momentum indicators indicate consolidation, with traders waiting for fresh leads from upcoming economic data releases. FORECAST If USD continues to ride on the momentum from the Fed’s dovish policy and upcoming Powell comments at Jackson Hole, USD/CHF may continue its rise above the 0.8085 resistance. Firm US PMI prints would add more weight to the argument in favor of the pair going higher, moving the pair towards 0.8120 and even around short term. Conversely, if Swiss Trade Balance numbers are higher than anticipated or if risk appetite increases, then the Swiss Franc might recover some of its lost ground. A breakdown below the 0.8020 support level might take USD/CHF lower towards 0.7980, with additional losses being potential if expectations of Fed rate cuts in September build.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Climbs Past 0.5950 as Dovish Fed Outlook and Robust Chinese Trade Figures Support Kiwi

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  • August 8, 2025
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NZD/USD pair jumped above 0.5950 on Friday, continuing its three-day winning streak as dovish Federal Reserve policy expectations and robust Chinese trade figures supported the New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi picked up speed following China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, announcing a greater-than-anticipated trade surplus in July and support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s inflation expectations. Market mood was again boosted by increasing speculation of a September 25 basis point Fed rate cut, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 93% chance. Though, upside potential is still contained with worries regarding the economic cost of newly implemented 15% US tariffs on New Zealand exports. KEY LOOKOUTS  • Pair continues three-day win streak on dovish Fed view and robust Chinese trade surplus. • Statistics favor Kiwi despite weaker 12-month and two-year forecasts. • CME FedWatch indicates 93% chance of 25 September bps reduction, sharply up from last week. • New 15% US tariff on New Zealand exports could cap further progress. NZD/USD broke above 0.5950 in Friday’s Asian session, its third day running of gains, as dovish Fed bets and strong Chinese trade figures supported the New Zealand Dollar. The Kiwi derived its strength from China’s wider-than-anticipated July trade surplus, in conjunction with dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations data, while softening US labor market readings fueled rumors of a September Fed rate cut. Nonetheless, ongoing concerns over the economic implications of a recently introduced 15% tariff on New Zealand exports to the US may cap the pair’s upward momentum. NZD/USD pushed higher past 0.5950 on the back of robust Chinese trade data and increasing Fed rate cut prospects. Nevertheless, upside could be constrained by the recently imposed 15% US tariff on New Zealand exports. • NZD/USD is trading at 0.5960, extending a three-day winning streak. • Robust Chinese July trade surplus bolsters New Zealand Dollar sentiment. • RBNZ inflation expectations underpin Kiwi despite marginal reductions in outlook. • US Initial Jobless Claims increase to 226K, indicating cooling labor market. • CME FedWatch indicates 93% chance of a September 25 bps Fed rate cut. • Dovish Fed stance further bolsters risk sentiment. • Newly imposed 15% US tariff on NZ exports presents possible economic risks. The New Zealand Dollar found strong support on Friday as positive economic cues from China and dovish expectations for US monetary policy boosted investor confidence. China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, posted a significantly higher trade surplus in July, signaling robust export performance. This, combined with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s latest inflation expectations data, helped strengthen the Kiwi’s position in the market. The general mood was also supported by increasing speculation that the US Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates from as soon as September, which helped improve overall risk appetite. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The positive mood, however, is balanced by trade-related fears. A 15% tariff on New Zealand goods being shipped to the United States took effect on Thursday, which has sent concerns over its possible effect on the nation’s export-led economy. As the US is one of New Zealand’s major markets for its products, these tariffs might put pressure on some sectors and burden overall growth. Market players now are closely observing forthcoming Chinese inflation numbers for additional indication on regional economic momentum, which might affect both trade flows and currency movements in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is in a bullish mood as it is trading above the pivotal 0.5950 level, boosted by unwavering buying interest in the last three sessions. The pair is trading firmly above its short-term moving averages, reflecting unabated momentum higher, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in positive territory without yet indicating overbought conditions. A decisive spike above the nearest resistance around 0.5980 may allow for a push toward the 0.6000 psychological level, while initial support is around 0.5920, followed by the 0.5900 area, which may serve as a pivot point should bearish pressure surface. FORECAST Should bullish momentum hold, NZD/USD may drive further towards the 0.5980 resistance point, a sustained break of which would see the psychological 0.6000 level within reach. Encouragement from solid Chinese trade data, along with dovish Fed policy expectations, may supply the necessary tailwind to force the currency higher. Further cues of softening US inflation and weaker labor market data may further boost buying interest and sustain an extended uptrend. Conversely, fresh selling pressure may arise if market attention turns to the bearish economic implications of the newly introduced 15% US tariff on New Zealand exports. A fall below the 0.5920 support point may expose the pair to further losses toward 0.5900 or even 0.5880. Poor Chinese inflation readings or surprising hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve may also bear on the Kiwi, prompting a possible reversal in recent advances.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Gains on Strong Chinese Figures and USD Weakness Before US CPI Release

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  • July 15, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rose higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, boosted by better-than-predicted economic indicators in China—Australia’s major trade partner—and weakening USD before the release of the US CPI. The Q2 GDP in China rose 5.2% year-over-year, beating estimates, and Industrial Production also surpassed expectations. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions such as threats from ex-US President Trump of tariffs weighed on the US Dollar, together with market prudence leading up to the critical inflation data. Local confidence in Australia slightly improved but concerns persist regarding the RBA’s rate outlook, with inflation risks and global uncertainties still in the spotlight. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Consumer Price Index report next is being closely monitored by investors, which would potentially affect the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions in the future and US dollar strength. • Even though rates remained unchanged in July, the prospects of an impending August rate cut still loom, particularly with inflation threats and subdued productivity in focus by RBA officials. • Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese can influence future trade and drive AUD sentiment. • Trump’s suggested tariffs on Russia, EU, and Mexico and secondary tariffs on Russian oil buyers could drive global market volatility and shape USD movements. Australian Dollar is strengthening against the US Dollar, supported by positive economic reports from China and a muted greenback in anticipation of the release of critical US inflation data. Recent better-than-expected GDP and Industrial Production figures from China have enhanced sentiment toward the AUD, as Australian trade connections are strong with China. In contrast, geopolitical tensions—such as Trump’s recent tariff threats and international trade tensions—have weighed on the USD. Locally, Australia’s consumer confidence registered a slight increase, but doubts continue regarding the next move by the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as inflation. The focus now shifts to the coming US CPI numbers, which have the potential to be a turning point for the short-term trajectory of the AUD/USD pair. Australian Dollar surged as optimistic Chinese economic figures improved investor mood, while the US Dollar declined in anticipation of crucial CPI releases. Geopolitical tensions and RBA policy uncertainty are still shaping market action. US inflation releases are awaited for additional guidance on AUD/USD direction. • AUD/USD up as impressive Chinese GDP and Industrial Production statistics improve optimism. • China’s Q2 GDP up 5.2% YoY, better than expectations of 5.1%, which supports the Aussie Dollar. • US Dollar falls in anticipation of significant CPI numbers, providing AUD/USD with upside tailwind. • Geopolitics escalates with Trump threatening fresh tariffs against Russia, EU, and Mexico. • RBA leaves rates unchanged, with potential cut in August due to inflation fears and poor productivity. • Australia’s Consumer Confidence increased modestly by 0.6% in July, reflecting modest optimism. • AUD/USD technicals exhibit bullish bias, trading close to 0.6550 in an uptrending channel. The Australian Dollar was supported on Tuesday by solid economic data from China—Australia’s biggest trade partner. China’s Q2 GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year was higher than market forecast, while Industrial Production was also better than expected. These supportive data points boosted market sentiment in the Australian economy, given its high trade linkage with China. Also, a minor increase in Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence showed cautious optimism from households, even as cost-of-living pressures persist and the interest rate outlook remains uncertain. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, world geopolitical events have given rise to a more conservative trading climate. Threats by the former US President Donald Trump to apply very harsh tariffs on Russia, along with so-called secondary tariffs on nations that import Russian oil, have boosted fears about growing trade tensions. Additional suggested tariffs on imports of the European Union and Mexico have contributed to the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the US government registered a June budget surplus powered mainly by record customs duty receipts, underscoring the increasing influence of trade policy on economic performance. These events continue to influence market mood throughout the lead-up to the US CPI report. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is exhibiting a mild bullish inclination as it hovers around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 0.6550, aided by an uptrend channel pattern on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the neutral 50 level, indicating that buyers continue to have a small advantage. A break above the recent high of 0.6595 would open the doors for additional gains towards the upper end of the channel at 0.6690. On the bearish side, support is immediately available at the lower edge of the upward channel at 0.6520, with more robust support at the 50-day EMA at 0.6488. FORECAST As long as the positive momentum prevails, particularly if it is supported by a softer US CPI figure or better risk appetite, the AUD/USD rate may try to break above the recent high of 0.6595. A breach of this level may draw fresh buying interest, boosting the pair to the upper edge of the rising channel in the region of 0.6690. Moreover, favorable news from the ongoing China-Australia trade talks or the easing of international tensions may further support the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if US inflation figures are hotter than anticipated, this could revive expectations for extended higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, bolstering the US Dollar and applying pressure on AUD/USD. A fall below near-term support at 0.6520 would risk deeper losses, potentially down to the 50-day EMA around 0.6488 or even the three-week low of 0.6485. Increasing geopolitical tensions or Reserve Bank of Australia dovish hints may also put pressure on the Aussie in the short term.

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