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USD/CHF Remains Near 0.7950 as Swiss Franc Strengthens with Rate Pause Speculation and Safe-Haven Demand

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  • July 10, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair remains steady near 0.7950 in Thursday’s European session after bouncing back from two consecutive losses. Further improvement, however, seems to be restricted with the Swiss Franc strengthening on dwindling hopes for more rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The latest increase in Switzerland’s CPI returned inflation into the SNB’s 0–2% target band, allowing analysts to forecast a rate hold until 2026. In the meantime, safe-haven appetite for the CHF is increasing as well, driven by increasing global trade tensions following former President Trump’s suggested tariffs. On the other hand, the US Dollar is pressured by dovish Federal Reserve cues and intensifying economic uncertainty. KEY LOOKOUTS • The markets generally foresee the Swiss National Bank maintaining interest rates unchanged at 0% in September, with no additional cuts expected as inflation comes back into play. • Escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, particularly in the wake of Trump’s tariff suggestions, are driving demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. • Policy guidance from the Federal Reserve remains uncertain, as reflected in the latest FOMC Minutes, weighing on the US Dollar. • US Initial Jobless Claims will be watched closely by traders for additional cues on the status of the labor market and possible Fed responses. USD/CHF pair trades around 0.7950, holding onto recent gains but resisting pressures in the face of rising demand for the Swiss Franc. The currency enjoys support through renewed optimism over Switzerland’s inflation outlook as June’s CPI numbers reversed an earlier drop and returned inflation into the SNB’s target zone. Consequently, the Swiss National Bank is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0%, lowering the odds of additional rate reductions. In contrast, overall risk sentiment supports safe-haven flows into the Franc, especially given heightened geopolitical threats and renewed tariff threats from former President Trump that fuel worries over global growth. The US Dollar, however, is pressured by uncertainty as to what the next move will be from the Fed, as captured in the most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes. USD/CHF stays firm at around 0.7950 but has limited upside due to the strengthening Swiss Franc. Rebounding Swiss inflation and safe-haven demand underpin the CHF, while uncertainty from Fed policy burdens the US Dollar. • USD/CHF is around 0.7950, rebounding from recent falls but showing little upside enthusiasm. • Swiss CPI increased 0.1% YoY in June, reversing last month’s fall and remaining within the SNB’s 0–2% target range. • SNB set to maintain rates at 0% in September with no additional cuts anticipated until 2026. • CHF safe-haven demand grows as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue. • Trump imposes fresh tariffs, 50% on Brazil and 30% on Algeria, Libya, Iraq, and Sri Lanka. • FOMC Minutes indicate uncertainty regarding the Fed’s policy direction and inflation expectations. • US Dollar Index (DXY) declines, trading at around 97.30, weighed down by Fed uncertainty and increasing trade risks. The USD/CHF currency pair is making waves as global economic and geopolitical considerations influence market sentiment. The Swiss Franc is experiencing renewed strength as a result of better local inflation numbers, with the June CPI increasing 0.1% year-on-year. The move has pushed inflation back into the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) target band, leading analysts to believe that the monetary policy adjustments will be on hold for an extended period. Consequently, hopes of additional interest rate cuts have eased, further boosting confidence in the Swiss economy and currency. USD/CHF DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, overall uncertainty keeps investor appetite for traditional safe-havens such as the Swiss Franc strong. Newly proposed tariffs by former President Donald Trump on some countries have revived concerns of a worldwide trade deceleration. This has further weighed on the US Dollar, particularly with the policy stance of the Federal Reserve still uncertain. The most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes show disagreement among policymakers over inflation concerns and upcoming rate decisions, which keeps the market wary of the USD’s short-term outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is consolidating around the 0.7950 mark following a brief recovery from fresh lows. The pair has key resistance around the 0.7980–0.8000 mark, where selling can come in if the upward momentum loses its strength. Support comes in at initial levels around the 0.7900 area, followed by more robust support near 0.7870. Momentum indicators such as RSI indicate neutral directions, and range-bound movement in the near term unless there is a clear breakout or breakdown. FORECAST Should bullish sentiment resume, USD/CHF may try to break above the 0.7980–0.8000 resistance area. A breakout above this level may set the stage for a retest of the 0.8050 level, particularly if future US economic data surprises higher or if risk sentiment swings towards the US Dollar. Any comments from Fed officials that could be seen as hawkish or better-than-expected labor market data could also feed the upside. On the negative side, a breakdown below 0.7950 may result in a further downfall towards the 0.7900 psychological level. A break below this support may invoke some more selling, which may drive the pair down to 0.7870 or even 0.7830. Deteriorating US data, rising safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, or rising geopolitical tensions may drive the bearish pressure towards the pair.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: Kiwi Fails to Hold Above 0.6000 After RBNZ Decision, Bearish Pressure Increases

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  • July 9, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair is in pressure, hovering close to a two-week low following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision to leave interest rates unchanged, as had been largely anticipated. While there was an initial post-RBNZ jump, the Kiwi could not hold ground amid a firmer US Dollar, bolstered by fading Fed rate cut hopes and persisting trade tensions. Technically, the decline of the pair through important moving averages and bearish signals indicates downside potential. A breakdown of the support at 0.5970 may then expose greater losses to 0.5900, with the recovery meeting resistance around 0.6025 and 0.6060. KEY LOOKOUTS • A solid breakout below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level may signal further losses to 0.5900 and the June low of 0.5880. • A stronger US Dollar supported by lower Fed rate cut speculation and safe-haven demand during trade uncertainties continues to suppress the Kiwi. • Any near-term recovery attempts could be met with resistance at 0.6025 (50% Fibo) and 0.6060 (38.2% Fibo), with an important breakout level at 0.6120. • The market response to the RBNZ’s rate hold remains subdued; upcoming Kiwi direction could depend on global risk appetite and US economic signals. NZD/USD currency pair is trading under pressure at a two-week low, unable to sustain its short-lived post-RBNZ gains after the central bank opted to leave interest rates steady. A robust US Dollar, driven by weakening hopes of Fed rate cuts and ongoing trade tensions, remains overwhelmingly bearish on the Kiwi. Technically, a breakdown through the 100-period SMA and bearish momentum indicators point towards additional downside risk. Unless the pair takes out important resistance areas above 0.6025, it is at risk of further losses, particularly if it breaks decisively below the 0.5970 support area. NZD/USD is trading close to a two-week low after an inability to hold gains of the RBNZ rate decision. Bearish technical conditions and a stronger USD suggest further decline below the 0.6000 level. Important support is at 0.5970, with resistance capped at 0.6025. • Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s closely anticipated hold on rates provided minimal support to the Kiwi. • NZD/USD touched 0.6015 briefly but reversed sharply, indicating weak bullish conviction. • Lower Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven flows into the USD are squeezing the NZD. • The pair declined below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. • A persistent break below this Fibonacci level may lead the way to 0.5935 and 0.5880. • Any rebound could short out at this level, followed by the 0.6060 and 0.6100 areas. • Market direction is dictated by global trade uncertainties and US policy worries. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to be burdened by wider macroeconomic forces, led by the continued strength of the US Dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left interest rates unchanged, as predicted, but the move did not give a confidence boost to investors in the Kiwi. The focus has instead turned to international events, particularly in the US, where trade policy issues and inflation expectations are directing currency flows. Since the US is holding its ground regarding tariffs and economic protectionism, the risk appetite of the market has been curbed, curtailing demand for risk-correlative assets such as the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts is also lending credence to the US Dollar’s support. Investors currently look for the Fed to hold off on any easing, keeping US yields sexy and firming up demand for the greenback. Furthermore, fear about global growth due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty surrounding trade talks continues to be the main theme in markets. This wider environment provides a challenging environment for the NZD to rally, despite calm local policy from the RBNZ. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has crossed below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which indicates bearish momentum change. Oscillators on both the hourly and daily charts are moving in negative directions, signifying building lower pressure. The pair is now trading below the important psychological level of 0.6000, and a resistance break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of around 0.5970 could signal a deeper bearish extension. Immediate support is at the 0.6025 level, with deeper levels of resistance at 0.6060 and 0.6100. Unless the pair recovers these levels, the technical bias is tilted in favor of sellers. FORECAST Should NZD/USD hold above the support area of 0.5970 and consolidate, a short-term recovery can be anticipated. The initial challenge for the bulls would be at the 0.6025 level, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall. A successful breach above this may direct the pair towards the 0.6060 area and possibly retest the 0.6100 level. Sustained buying momentum past this point may unlock the way towards the recent high at 0.6120, which can serve as a key resistance level for any such sustained bullish trend. Conversely, a failure to stay above 0.5970 may ignite new selling pressure, and the pair may be exposed to further losses. The next level of support comes in at 0.5935, and below that there is the psychologically relevant 0.5900 level. A breach below this might send NZD/USD towards the June monthly swing low of 0.5880. Based on prevailing market mood and technical indications, the downside looks more likely unless solid bullish momentum re-emerges.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3700 as Markets Wait for Critical US PCE Inflation Report

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  • June 27, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair holds a strong position above the level of 1.3700 in Friday’s Asian trading session, quote near 1.3735 as the Pound is supported by market sentiment over a weakening US Dollar. The Greenback is still under selling pressure in light of speculation surrounding the future autonomy of the Federal Reserve, particularly following the suggestion of former President Donald Trump of making a premature choice for the next Fed Chair, building anticipation of more rapid-than-expected US rate cuts. Also, less than impressive US GDP numbers, highlighting a deeper-than-projected 0.5% decline in Q1, have further hampered the USD. While the Pound is supported, dovish Bank of England signals can cap the upside for GBP/USD, as investors look ahead to the coming US PCE inflation data for clearer guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • An important guide for future Fed policy; better-than-expected data could underpin the USD, with poor data underpinning rate cut chances. • Trump’s words on selecting the next Fed Chair could impact USD sentiment and investor confidence in the independence of the Fed. • The deeper-than-anticipated 0.5% Q1 GDP drop reinforces worries regarding the strength of the US economy, pushing down the Greenback. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on a weakening labor market and possible rate reductions could cap gains in the Pound. GBP/USD currency pair is trading on a higher ground above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by a weakening US Dollar due to increasing fears about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and increasing prospects of premature rate cuts. Remarks made by former President Donald Trump regarding choosing the next Fed Chair shortly have created heightened speculation regarding the Fed’s policy direction, further bearing down on the Greenback. At the same time, a deeper-than-anticipated US GDP contraction has provided further pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the potential upside for the Pound can be limited by the dovish stance of the Bank of England as evidence of a decelerating UK labor market instills prudence in investors. The spotlight now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, which may inject some fresh signals into the direction of the pair. GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3700 as the weaker US Dollar, fueled by Fed uncertainty and weak economic data, dominates. Market attention now turns to the US PCE inflation figure, which may dictate expectations of future Fed policy actions. • GBP/USD at 1.3735, remaining positive territory in Friday morning Asian trading. • US Dollar loses ground amidst fears of the Fed’s autonomy and leadership change. • Trump’s comments on selecting a new Fed Chair stoke market speculation regarding prior rate reductions. • US GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, which was worse than forecast -0.2%, further depressing the USD. • BoE leaves interest rates steady at 4.25%, but dovish remarks suggest future reductions. • UK labor market is weakening, adding to caution over the Pound’s upside. • Friday’s US PCE inflation reading may propel the next major movement in GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is drawing increasing attention as overall market mood continues to support the Pound versus the US Dollar. Increased doubts regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy have been at the forefront after previous President Donald Trump expressed that he might name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell earlier than anticipated. This has put uncertainty on the market, with investors keenly observing how this could impact future monetary policy direction. To this view was added the recent US GDP data that recorded a sharper-than-projected decline, which is causing worry over the overall state of the US economy. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView For their part, policymakers at the Bank of England have taken a very dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey last week spoke about evidence of a softening labor market and hinted at the possibility of the trend of declining interest rates persisting. While the central bank left rates unchanged at its last meeting, there was internal dissent with three of the nine members voting to cut the rate. These contradictory signals on both sides of the Atlantic are maintaining investors wary, with most waiting for Friday’s US PCE inflation data release for more explicit policy guidance ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a bullish tone as it trades well above the 1.3700 psychological support level, hinting at continuous buying demand. The duo is comfortably supported by an ascending short-term trendline, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in the top half of their scale, reflecting strength in the rise. A break above the near-term resistance around 1.3750 could pave the way for further upside towards the 1.3800 area. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3700 could indicate waning momentum and bring in the next support zone around 1.3650. FORECAST If the US PCE inflation data later this week turns out to be softer-than-anticipated, it would add strength to market expectations of premature Federal Reserve rate cuts and further weaken the US Dollar. This would be likely to find support for sustained GB/USD upside, particularly if UK economy sentiment is relatively robust. A firm push past the 1.3750 resistance level may take the pair towards 1.3800 and beyond, as bulls gain strength on the back of softer US economic data and political turmoil around the Fed’s next leadership. Conversely, if the US PCE data surprises positively, it will stymie rate cut hopes, and could lend near-term support to the US Dollar. This could result in a pullback in GBP/USD, particularly if dovish comments from the Bank of England remain a drag on the Pound. A fall below the 1.3700 support level could reveal more downside to 1.3650 or even 1.3600, especially if risk appetite turns defensive or better US data brings renewed confidence in the Greenback.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Surges on Ceasefire Hope and Weaker Inflation Figures

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  • June 25, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, supported by the removal of geopolitical risk and weaker-than-anticipated domestic inflation figures. The U.S. President Trump-announced Israel-Iran ceasefire improved risk appetite in the world and weakened the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, underpinning the risk-sensitive AUD. Meanwhile, Australia’s May CPI rose by 2.1% year-over-year, below market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut in July. As markets price in an 80% chance of a 25bps cut, the AUD/USD pair climbed above 0.6500, showing persistent bullish momentum backed by favorable technical indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are implying an 80% chance of a 25bps rate cut after softer-than-anticipated CPI numbers and lackluster GDP readings. • The AUD is also reactive to geopolitics; any continuation in the sustainability of the Israel-Iran ceasefire can continue to support risk appetite. • Comments from Fed Chair Powell imply no near-term rate cuts, but mixed comments from other Fed officials can bring volatility to the USD. • AUD/USD is threatened by resistance at the June 16 high, with a breach above potentially validating sustained bullish momentum. The Australian Dollar continues to appreciate against the US Dollar on the back of calming geopolitical tensions and weakening domestic inflation data. Global risk sentiment has been aided in recent days by the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which has diminished the safe-haven characteristics of the USD and increased the risk-sensitive AUD. At the same time, Australia’s May CPI was lower than forecast at 2.1% year-over-year, affirming the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expectations as early as July. While markets are price-accustomed for monetary easing and technicals are reflecting bullish strength, the AUD/USD pair is holding strongly north of the 0.6500 level. Australian Dollar extends gains on better risk sentiment after the Israel-Iran ceasefire and lower Australian inflation numbers. The markets now price in a July rate cut from the RBA, with AUD/USD breaking above the 0.6500 mark. Technicals still show bullish momentum. • AUD/USD rises above 0.6500 on improved risk appetite and declining geopolitical tensions. • Israel-Iran ceasefire improves market mood, deters safe-haven US Dollar. • Australia’s May CPI increased 2.1% YoY, weaker than expected 2.3% and previous 2.4%, making rate cut expectations more certain. • 80% probability of 25bps RBA rate reduction in July are priced in by markets, with combined 73bps cuts being expected by the end of the year. • Fed Chair Powell indicates delayed rate cuts, likely in Q4, while other Fed officials are less clear in their views. • AUD/USD remains above the 9-day EMA, with buy signals from RSI and ascending channel pattern. • Major resistance at 0.6552 and 0.6570, with nearest support at 0.6486 and 0.6450. The Australian Dollar remains firm, boosted by better global risk appetite and a weaker inflation outlook domestically. The news that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been agreed, announced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has relaxed geopolitical tensions and generated hope in financial markets. This has caused demand for the safe-haven currency like the US Dollar to fall, boosting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar. The ceasefire has also brought optimism for possible diplomatic advancements, including resumption of nuclear negotiations, further bolstering market confidence. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Locally, the economic figures from Australia have lent further support to the Aussie Dollar. Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.1% on a yearly basis in May, softer than forecast. This combined with earlier published subpar GDP readings has helped fuel market expectations of a July interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Market participants now price in several rate cuts by year-end. The mutual support of reducing inflation pressures and a favorable international environment has assisted in maintaining the recent trend of the AUD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair continues to have a bullish bias since it trades above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and continues to be within an uptrend channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 level but has not entered the overbought zone, signaling improving positive momentum without reaching overbought levels. If the pair sustains its move above 0.6500, it could retest the recent high of 0.6552, followed by potential resistance near 0.6570. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486, with further downside limited by the lower channel boundary and the 50-day EMA near 0.6450–0.6438. FORECAST If the bullish pressure persists, AUD/USD is set to revisit the recent high of 0.6552, the seven-month high. Breaking above it could pave the way for a move towards the upper edge of the rising channel of about 0.6570. On-going risk-on appetite, combined with hopes of policy easing from RBA, could continue to propel price higher, especially if geopolitical tensions remain mild and market optimism continues to increase. On the flip side, if the pair does not hold above 0.6500, near-term support lies at the 9-day EMA around 0.6486. A strong break below here might turn bearish momentum, taking AUD/USD to the lower end of the rising channel at 0.6450. Lower levels may be seen testing the 50-day EMA at 0.6438, if US Dollar demand picks up with the release of better economic data or with dovish Fed speak.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Stregnths as Diverging BoJ-Fed Policies Pressure USD/JPY Towards 145.00

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  • June 24, 2025
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Japanese Yen continues gaining against a declining US Dollar, pushing the USD/JPY pair towards the 145.00 level amid increasing policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). As the BoJ is set to raise rates again on the back of lingering inflation and robust domestic data, the Fed is more and more intimating future rate reductions, perhaps beginning in July. This dichotomy has taken a heavy toll on the USD, making the lower-yielding JPY more attractive. Further uplift for the Yen is also provided by hopes of a possible US-Japan trade agreement and continued safe-haven demand in the face of geopolitical events, such as a tentative Israel-Iran ceasefire. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing expectations of Bank of Japan rate hikes against possible Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on USD/JPY. • Market sentiment would change depending on the result of ministerial-level negotiations on or about June 26, which could have implications for trade flows and the strength of the JPY. • Jerome Powell’s testimonial before Congress, as well as other speeches from FOMC officials, will be eyed for hints on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory in the next few months. • Traders will be watching if the pair falls convincingly below the 145.00 psychological level support, which could fuel more bearish momentum. The Japanese Yen is holding steady against the US Dollar, with the USD/JPY pair hovering near the crucial 145.00 support level as markets respond to differing monetary policy expectations. Expectations of the Bank of Japan hiking interest rates in the face of persistent inflation and better economic data stand sharply contrasted with increasing expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, potentially as early as July. This divergence still undermines the USD and props up the JPY. Further fueling the Yen’s popularity are hopes for an imminent US-Japan trade deal and ongoing safe-haven appetite, in spite of worldwide geopolitical shifts. Japanese Yen extends gains against a weaker US Dollar, pushing USD/JPY toward the 145.00 level. Divergent BoJ-Fed rate expectations and safe-haven buying continue to underpin the Yen. Traders now look to important US data and Powell’s testimony for direction. •  The Japanese Yen advances sharply, pulling USD/JPY towards the 145.00 psychological level. •  BoJ will likely raise rates further, while the Fed is inclined to cut rates, perhaps as early as July. •  Japanese core inflation at or above the 2% target keeps the argument for tighter monetary policy alive. •  Upbeat Japanese PMI data enhance optimism over the outlook in Japan. •  Conflicting US PMIs and soft Fed rhetoric put pressure on the US Dollar. •  Expectations of a US-Japan free trade agreement before the July 9 deadline to impose tariffs add strength to the Yen. •  USD/JPY looks to break below the 145.00 level; resistance is observed around 146.00 and 147.00 levels. The Japanese Yen draws robust demand as investors react to a changing global monetary environment. With Japan’s underlying inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target for more than three years and recent PMI readings registering strength, markets are growing optimistic that the Bank of Japan can go ahead with further rate hikes. In contrast to the U.S., where uneven economic data and weakening labor forecasts have encouraged Federal Reserve policymakers to begin reducing the central bank’s stimulative monetary policy in the near term. Such divergence in central bank policies is sending investors to the Yen, which appears to be a safe and more appealing currency in the face of current conditions. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On top of the Yen’s strength is rising optimism of a US-Japan trade deal, as Japan’s Economy Minister plans high-level talks with U.S. officials. The fact that these talks come early, prior to an imminent tariff deadline, indicates an active attempt to put trade tensions on the backburner, viewed favorably by the market. Additionally, the Japanese Yen has not been significantly impacted by recent geopolitical events, such as a reported Israel-Iran ceasefire, further solidifying its safe-haven status. All of these combined point to a robust fundamental foundation for the Yen moving forward. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has fallen below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) to indicate short-term bearish pressure. Yet, the fall has come to an impasse around the 145.40 zone, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the last upward move, and hence, a critical support zone to monitor. A clean break below this zone would set the stage for a drop to the 145.00 psychological level, which might unleash further bearish momentum. On the plus side, resistance is evident at 146.00 supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and a move above it would switch attention to 147.00–147.45. Interim mixed signals from momentum indicators imply that traders will be awaiting confirmation before entering strong directional positions. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair holds above the 145.00 level of support and resumes its uptrend, a short-term rebound can send the pair as high as the 146.00 resistance area, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A decisive breakout above this resistance may pave the way for additional gains towards 146.70–146.75 and possibly even to the 147.40–147.45 region. Continued buying interest above these levels might take the pair to the 148.00 psychological mark and the May peak around 148.65. Conversely, a convincing breakdown below the 145.00 psychological level might strengthen the bearish outlook and provoke fresh selling. This could propel the pair into a more pronounced correction towards the 144.50 support level, then 144.00. If downside pressure persists, the next significant target may be 143.30–143.00, which are former consolidation areas. The overall trend may become increasingly biased towards sellers if fundamentals and sentiment remain in favor of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Bounces Back with Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Policy Uncertainty

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  • June 18, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) modestly rebounded against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday despite risk aversion dampened by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The rebound follows after the AUD/USD pair incurred more than 0.50% losses in the last session. In spite of risk-off sentiment that is still prevalent because of continued hostilities between Iran and Israel, the AUD was supported by a weaker US Dollar, held down by poor US retail sales statistics and expectations that interest rates at present levels will be kept by the Federal Reserve. Investors also watch for further updates on Australian labor market statistics and other global trade and political tensions for new directional signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • Israel-Iran conflict will continue to bear on risk sentiment and facilitate safe-haven flows to the US Dollar. • Markets are looking to the Federal Reserve’s policy statement in June and expect none but increasing speculation for rate cuts in September and October. • Later this week, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data will feed into RBA’s policy view and drive AUD action. • AUD/USD faces key resistance at the nine-day EMA (0.6495) and June’s high (0.6552), with potential to climb further if these levels are breached. Australian Dollar managed to edge higher against the US Dollar despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and a generally risk-averse market environment. The rebound comes after a steep fall in the previous session, supported by softer-than-expected US retail sales figures and a weaker US Dollar as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s policy statement. Investors are still wary of the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and are watching closely for Australia’s impending labor market data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy trajectory. Technical indicators indicate that AUD/USD pair is trading within an uptrend channel, indicating a cautiously positive tone for the pair in the short term. The Australian Dollar recovers despite increased geopolitical tensions and risk-off mood. Deteriorating US retail sales and weaker Greenback provide short-term support to AUD/USD. Markets currently expect the Fed’s policy announcement and Australia’s labor figures for additional guidance. •  The Australian Dollar recovered from its 0.50% loss in the last session. •  AUD/USD is under pressure from subdued risk appetite owing to Israel-Iran tensions. •  The US Dollar came under pressure following poor US retail sales prints (-0.9% in May). •  The Federal Reserve is likely to leave rates steady in June. •  Markets are factoring in near-term Fed rate cuts in September and October. •  Australia’s Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures are coming later this week. •  Technically, AUD/USD is ranging within an upward channel, reflecting a conservative bullish inclination. The Australian Dollar is demonstrating strength in the face of difficult global environment characterized by rising geo-political tensions. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains to influence investor appetite, with worries of greater regional instability heightened. In a significant diplomatic initiative, Iran has approached Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia and asked them to call on U.S. leadership for a ceasefire at the earliest. These developments have strengthened safe-haven demand, especially of the US Dollar, with market participants being prepared for potential escalations that may cause churn in global markets and energy supplies. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, economic indicators from the US and China are affecting the overall market mood. US retail sales declined deeper than anticipated in May, indicative of weakening consumer spending. This has supported speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon look at policy easing, with markets looking for possible rate reductions later this year. Conversely, Chinese retail sales were better than expected, indicating some resilience in domestic demand, albeit industrial production slightly under forecast. Locally, Australia’s coming employment data continues to be a major interest for traders, as it could inform expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next monetary policy move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD continues to be supported in an uptrending channel on the daily chart, indicating a prevailing bearish bias in the short term. The currency pair is sitting just above 0.6480, near the lower edge of the channel that serves as instantaneous support. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the mid-point 50 level, showing a marginal bullish bias. The price is, however, below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6495, which shows some near-term weakness. A continued breakout above this EMA would set the stage for a test of the recent high at 0.6552 and potentially the upper edge of the channel around 0.6740, whereas a decline below 0.6480 would undermine the bullish picture and leave the 50-day EMA support at 0.6431. FORECAST If risk sentiment were to settle and positive surprises in future Australian employment statistics, the AUD/USD pair would be likely to pick up on its upward momentum. A move above the current resistance at the nine-day EMA (0.6495) could see a test of the last high at 0.6552. Serious bullish pressure could take the pair to the eight-month high at 0.6687, then the top of the rising channel at around 0.6740, particularly if the US Dollar continues to break lower on bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. On the negative side, fresh geopolitical tensions or poor Australian labor market statistics may dampen the Australian Dollar. A fall through the ascending channel’s lower line at 0.6480 would confirm a trend change and open the way to the 50-day EMA at 0.6431. Losses could push the pair further down to the 0.6400 psychological level, especially if the US Dollar as a safe haven gains further strength during continued global uncertainty.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Outlook: Loonie Set for Further Downside as Market Awaits Fed Policy and Trade Negotiations

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  • June 17, 2025
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USD/CAD remains pinned around 1.3575, indicating consolidation in anticipation of the much-expected Federal Reserve policy announcement. The market is widely expecting the Fed to leave interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% levels, thereby preventing any unusual market volatility. As for positive news on a prospective US-Canada trade agreement, the Canadian Dollar remains underperforming, with USD/CAD near its eight-month low. Bearish technical signals, such as falling EMAs and weak RSI, suggest possible downside towards the 1.3400 level, unless the pair can pull off a conclusive rebound above 1.3820. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch out for the Fed interest rate statement, with a forecasted hold at 4.25%-4.50%, which can be relevant to USD volatility. • Hope of a trade deal between Trump and Carney can serve to back CAD if talks proceed as scheduled in the next 30 days. • A dip below 1.3540 might initiate further downfall towards 1.3500 and 1.3420, perpetuating the bearish trend. • 14-day RSI is still in bearish range (20-40), and all the major EMAs are in declining modes, indicating continuous selling pressure. USD/CAD currency pair stays bearish, trading at around 1.3575 as investors take a risk-off approach in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement. As much as a rate decision is expected to be held back, any indication of impending policy changes may inject some volatility into the US Dollar. Even as there is a favorable environment for the Canadian Dollar on account of a predicted trade agreement between Canada and the US, the Loonie remains underperforming. Technically, the bearish setup is still intact, and momentum gauges and EMAs suggest lower. A convincing fall below 1.3540 could set the stage for further losses towards 1.3500 and then 1.3420. USD/CAD fluctuates around 1.3575 as markets wait for the Fed rate decision. Even with trade deal euphoria, the Canadian Dollar lags. A fall below 1.3540 could lead to further losses toward 1.3400. • USD/CAD is trading around 1.3575, maintaining Monday’s range. • The Fed should keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%. • Investors are looking for policy cues from the Federal Reserve. • Canadian PM Carney and US President Trump target a trade agreement in 30 days. • Even with trade optimism, CAD trails other major currencies. • Technicals reveal a bearish pattern with all EMAs trending lower. • A decline below 1.3540 may send the pair to 1.3500 and 1.3420 support levels. The USD/CAD currency pair continues to be range-bound with market players looking ahead to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later today. With general expectations of the Fed leaving its rate policy unchanged, investors are more interested in any forward guidance that would give clarity to future rate direction. This cautionary mood has seen the US Dollar firm up against its peers, including the Canadian Dollar, in advance of the mid-week policy declaration. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the geopolitical side, events between Canada and the United States have captured the spotlight, including Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and US President Donald Trump’s commitment to seal a trade agreement within 30 days. Such an action would have significant consequences for North American trade patterns and investor sentiment. Even amid this seemingly rosy context for the Canadian economy, market responses have been muted as investors remain in wait for tangible advances on the trade horizon. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD remains bearish as the pair keeps trading below fundamental moving averages, with all short-to-long-term EMAs trending south—reflecting consistent selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be weak, fluctuating between 20 and 40, reflecting that bearish momentum still prevails. A break below Monday’s low of 1.3540 would probably speed the downside movement, possibly pulling the pair towards the next important support levels of 1.3500 and 1.3420. Any rebound, though, above 1.3820 might change the near-term bias to bullish. FORECAST If USD/CAD penetrates the significant support at 1.3540, it might pave the way for more losses. The next strong psychological figure to monitor is 1.3500, with the September 25 low at 1.3420 coming next. Sustained bearish pressure, coupled with diminishing expectation of positive economic surprises in the US, may continue to fuel downward pressure in the near term. Conversely, a convincing bounce through the May 29 high of 1.3820 would confirm a reversal in sentiment and potentially turn the bearish structure of the pair around. This may set the stage for a test of the May 21 high at 1.3920 and ultimately the May 15 high at 1.4000, particularly if US economic conditions firm up or Fed commentary unexpectedly becomes hawkish.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Forecast: Kiwi Poised to Extend Rally Toward 0.6100 on Weak US Data, Bullish Momentum

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  • June 5, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair rallied to a seven-month high at around 0.6055, on the back of widespread strength in the New Zealand Dollar and weakness in the US Dollar despite persisting US-China trade tensions on weak US economic data. The Kiwi remained upbeat despite sustained US-China trade tensions, drawing strength from declining US Treasury yields and dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Technically, the pair is close to a bullish breakout through the consolidation range, with leaders such as the 20-day EMA and RSI hinting at upward momentum. A sustained break above 0.6050 might pave the way for a rally towards 0.6100 and further. KEY LOOKOUTS •  A break above this level might initiate bullish momentum towards 0.6100 and 0.6145. •  Any additional softness in US data can boost bets on a Fed rate cut, putting pressure on the US Dollar. •  Escalating tensions might affect risk sentiment and indirectly burden the NZD given New Zealand’s trade relationships with China. •  The bullish flag pattern, increasing 20-day EMA, and RSI above 60.00 all indicate further potential to go higher. NZD/USD pair maintains its rally, hitting a new seven-month high of around 0.6055 as the New Zealand Dollar trounces peers. The strength holds despite persistent US-China trade tensions, demonstrating the Kiwi’s resilience in a world filled with uncertainty. Subpar US economic data, such as weak ADP employment and ISM services data, has weighed on US Treasury yields and stoked hopes for a possible Fed rate reduction, further eroding the US Dollar. Technically, the couple is set to report a bullish break out of its latest consolidation range with momentum indicators such as the RSI and 20-day EMA favoring the move higher. A clean break above 0.6050 could set the stage towards the 0.6100–0.6145 resistance area. NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055 due to US Dollar weakness and healthy Kiwi demand. Bullish technical indications point towards a near-term breakout towards 0.6100. Weak US data and expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to pressure the Greenback. • NZD/USD reaches a seven-month peak at around 0.6055, propelled by general Kiwi strength. • Weak US economic indicators (ADP jobs, ISM Services) pressure US Treasury yields and the USD. • Speculation of Fed rate cut weighs on the US Dollar Index around 98.60. • US-China trade tensions continue, but the NZD stays resilient to potential threats. • Breakout expected technically, as NZD/USD nears the upper end of a bullish flag pattern. • RSI rises above 60, and the 20-day EMA steepens, indicating bullish momentum. • Next resistance levels are 0.6100 and 0.6145, while major support is at 0.5846. The NZD/USD pair has gained strong traction, reaching a seven-month high as the New Zealand Dollar outperforms amid a backdrop of global uncertainty. Despite ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations, the Kiwi has shown resilience, supported by investor confidence in New Zealand’s economic stability. Statements from the previous US President Donald Trump on how hard it is to get a trade deal done with China have raised geopolitical concerns without suppressing demand for the NZD. This level of strength is particularly surprising considering New Zealand’s close economic relationship with China, and it shows the market’s faith in the Kiwi currency. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar is under pressure from soft local economic data. The most recent ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for May missed expectations, which raised doubts regarding the health of the US labor market and service sector. These reports have resulted in lower US Treasury yields and heightened speculation regarding monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve in future meetings. In turn, investors are turning away from the USD, and this provides additional support to NZD/USD appreciation in the larger market environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is showing robust bullish momentum as it nears the upper limit of a Bullish Flag pattern, traditionally a continuation signal that foretells additional upside. The pair has moved out of its range of consolidation between 0.5846 and 0.6024, and this points to the possibility of an extended rally. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is pointing higher at 0.5925, supporting the upward trend. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved past the 60.00 threshold, indicating building buying pressure. In the event that the pair remains above the level of 0.6050, it may reach the next significant resistance points of 0.6100 and 0.6145. FORECAST NZD/USD can see further upside if it continues above the 0.6050 level. A breakout above this level, supported by good technicals and weak US Dollar sentiment, could see the pair towards the next hurdle of 0.6100, then 0.6145. Ongoing weak US economic news, dovish Federal Reserve expectations, and calm risk appetite would also see the pair see the bullish path through. Conversely, if NZD/USD cannot maintain a level above the 0.6050 region and comes under renewed pressure from external risk factors—like rising US-China trade tensions or higher-than-expected US data release—the pair may retreat. A fall below the May 12 low of 0.5846 would leave it vulnerable to further downside towards the 0.5800 psychological level, with further support at the April 10 high of 0.5767.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Moves Back Towards 0.6500 as Soft US Data Deters Dollar Strength

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  • June 4, 2025
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AUD/USD currency pair moved back higher on Wednesday, moving back towards the 0.6500 level as the US Dollar fell back after weaker-than-anticipated economic data. Even with the news that Australia’s GDP grew at only 0.2% in Q1 and saw its business activity barely move in May, the Australian Dollar picked up following the deterioration in the Greenback. US ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI both came in below expectations, indicating a deceleration in the US economy and stoking speculation of a Federal Reserve policy change. The pair’s rally shows the market’s responsiveness to US macroeconomic data, with more to come before Australia’s trade numbers and the next US Nonfarm Payrolls report. KEY LOOKOUTS • A vital determinant that may impact Fed rate expectations and trigger meaningful USD movement. •  Could offer short-term guidance on the AUD based on export result and trade surplus data. • A significant psychological and technical level; a clean breakout might indicate additional bullish pressure. •  Market sentiment for a dovish tilt may continue to press on the US Dollar if weak data continues. AUD/USD pair is displaying strength, rebounding against the critical 0.6500 level as the US Dollar falters with dismal economic reports. Disappointing employment figures from the ADP and an unexpected weakening in the ISM Services PMI have created doubts regarding the vigour of the US economy, fueling speculation regarding a possible policy change from the Federal Reserve. Even though Australia’s own weaker GDP growth and muted PMI readings failed to make a dent, the Australian Dollar recovered later from early losses on technical support around the 0.6450 level. Attention now turns to subsequent Australian trade data and the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls release, which may provide the pair with fresh impetus. AUD/USD recovered to around 0.6500 as the US Dollar softened on weak jobs and services data. In spite of Australia’s poor GDP, the Aussie was supported by technical buying and USD weakness. Traders now look for Australia’s trade data and the US NFP report for direction. • AUD/USD recovered back to 0.6500, recovering losses from weak Australian GDP data. •  US Dollar lower following underwhelming ADP employment (37,000 vs. 115,000 anticipated) and ISM Services PMI (49.9 vs. 52 anticipated). • Australian Q1 GDP eased to 0.2% QoQ, the weakest expansion in three quarters, below forecasts of 0.4%. • S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs indicated limited growth, with readings hovering marginally above 50. • Technical floor at 0.6450 remained in place, triggering fresh AUD buying interest. • DXY (US Dollar Index) fell below 99.00, indicative of broad USD weakness in the face of weak US data. • The next major move in the pair is most likely to be influenced by upcoming Australian trade data and US Nonfarm Payrolls. The Australian currency strengthened against the US Dollar on Wednesday, primarily fueled by a weakening Greenback in the wake of softer-than-projected US economic data. The ADP Employment Change report showed a sharp deceleration of hiring, with private companies adding just 37,000 jobs in May — the weakest in more than a year. Further, the ISM Services PMI dipped into contraction ground for the first time this year, an indication of a larger moderation in the services sector. These points have provoked alarm regarding the health of the U.S. economy and heightened market speculation surrounding a possible change in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy approach. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, Australia’s domestic data showed a mixed reading. Although GDP growth eased to 0.2% for the first quarter, the lowest rate in three quarters, the economy maintained its record of unbroken expansion. The most recent PMI readings revealed marginal movement in business activity, and overall indicative of a generally slow but stable economic climate. As focus shifts now towards Australia’s next trade balance and the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release, market players continue to watch closely how changing economic indicators will influence central bank projections and currency action over the next few days. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is pointing towards a rebound after it encountered solid support around the 0.6450 level, which has served as a floor in successive sessions. The pair is currently hinting at testing the 0.6500 psychological resistance, a level that has halted rallies on several occasions, meaning that a decisive breakout above it may pave the way for further gains. Momentum tools such as the RSI are slowly shifting into positive territory, reflecting renewed buying demand. But persistence above 0.6500 is the key to establishing a bullish breakout, while a failure to break this level might lead to further consolidation around the range thus far. FORECAST AUD/USD exchange rate manages to move above the 0.6500 resistance level, it might initiate further bullish momentum, particularly if future releases from Australia indicate a higher trade surplus or in case the US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes short. A breakthrough above this psychological level might unlock the way to the next resistance around 0.6550 or further, as sentiment towards the Australian Dollar improves. Further deterioration in US economic data could also generate speculation regarding further Fed interest rate cuts, further supporting the pair. To the downside, a failure to break the 0.6500 barrier could produce fresh selling pressure, with the pair likely to retest support around the 0.6450 area. A better-than-expected US jobs report or more hawkish Fed commentary might revive demand for the US Dollar, taking AUD/USD down. If bearish momentum gathers pace, the pair might drift towards 0.6400, particularly if Australian trade data disappoints or global risk sentiment deteriorates.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains Strength on BoJ Rate Hike Speculations and International Safe-Haven Demand

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  • May 22, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained significantly, touching a two-week high relative to the US Dollar (USD), as a result of a mix of bullish domestic and international drivers. Optimistic Japanese Machinery Orders data has raised hopes of Japan’s economic turnaround and speculation regarding additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. At the same time, fresh safe-haven demand amid rising geopolitical tensions and fear of the US fiscal prospects has contributed to the Yen’s popularity. Poorer-than-expected US economic reports, hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and political uncertainty over President Trump’s tax bill have also pushed down the USD, further supporting the bearish leaning of the USD/JPY pair. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Monitor any new comments or policy changes from the Bank of Japan, particularly on interest rate rises, as ongoing monetary tightening may foster further JPY appreciation. • The main indicators like Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, and coming PMIs will be instrumental in assessing the well-being of the US economy and determining USD direction. • Persistent tensions in Gaza and Ukraine, as well as US-China trade tension, can drive safe-haven flows into JPY, supporting downside pressure on USD/JPY. • Strong technical support is at 143.20 and 142.35, with resistance around 145.00–145.40. RSI close to the oversold zone on shorter timeframes indicates potential for near-term consolidation or a small bounce before the next move. Markets should keep a close eye on major events influencing the USD/JPY pair, as various factors still determine its short-term course. The hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan, fueled by robust domestic indicators such as the recent Machinery Orders jump, is likely to create room for additional interest rate increases, which would strengthen the Yen. Geopolitical tensions and global economic instability are also expected to continue driving demand for the safe-haven JPY. In contrast, the US Dollar remains under pressure amid weak macroeconomic data, fiscal concerns linked to President Trump’s proposed tax bill, and growing speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts. Technically, the pair faces strong resistance near 145.00–145.40, while a break below 143.20 could trigger deeper losses, making upcoming US data and global sentiment key factors to watch. The Japanese Yen is still underpinned by robust domestic data, BoJ rate hike prospects, and haven demand. On the other hand, USD/JPY is threatened by a soft US Dollar due to fiscal worries and Fed rate cut predictions. The next move will be led by key levels and future economic releases. •  The Japanese Yen touched a two-week high due to robust domestic fundamentals as well as haven inflows. • Japan’s Core Machinery Orders increased 13% in March, beating forecasts and reinforcing economic optimism. • Positive news reinforces speculation that the Bank of Japan will keep hiking interest rates. • The US Dollar continues to be pressured by fiscal worries and Federal Reserve rate-cutting expectations. • Ukraine and Gaza conflict and US-China trade tension fuel safe-haven flows into JPY. • Major resistance is at 145.00–145.40, with a break below 143.20 having potential to propel USD/JPY to further downside. • Investors should monitor US jobless claims, housing sales, and PMIs for new direction in USD/JPY. Japanese Yen continues to benefit from a mix of favorable domestic news and increased global uncertainty. Recent statistics indicating a steep rise in Japan’s Core Machinery Orders have brightened optimism about the nation’s economic revival, supporting belief that the Bank of Japan might continue with additional interest rate increases. This represents a major change from Japan’s history of ultra-loose monetary policy and indicates strengthening faith in homegrown demand and inflation stability. Moreover, hopes of increasing wages and consumer consumption are underpinning the wider picture for continued growth in Japan. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Globally, the Yen is also enjoying its habitual safe-haven status with increased geopolitical tensions and fears about the US fiscal condition. The recent US tax bill, which would substantially increase the federal deficit, has created investor concern about the long-term economic soundness of the country. Concurrently, persistent tensions in the likes of Ukraine and the Middle East, and reviving trade tensions between the US and China, are contributing to market volatility. These events are forcing investors to turn to safe assets, and the Yen has been the favored pick in uncertain times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is demonstrating bearish momentum, with current price action having difficulty maintaining any serious recovery. The duo has been facing resistance in the 144.40 area, which is a significant retracement level as well as the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and indicates sustained selling interest at higher prices. Oscillators on the daily chart are starting to turn bearish, indicating an increasing downside bias. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on smaller timeframes is moving towards oversold levels, suggesting a possible short-term consolidation or corrective bounce. A clear violation of the 143.20 support level would set off selling pressure, exposing levels of 142.35 and further beyond to the 142.00 psychological level. FORECAST USD/JPY pair is able to stay above significant support points and sentiment surrounding the US economy turns positive, there’s scope for a short-term recovery. A welcome surprise in future US economic reports, for example, jobless claims or housing numbers, may provide short-term relief for the US Dollar. Then the pair may try to retest the 145.00 psychological level. A persistent break above here may set the stage for a rise up to the 145.35–145.40 resistance area, provided investor sentiment becomes bullish on riskier assets and the Federal Reserve dials back its dovish tone. Conversely, further US Dollar weakness on the back of fiscal worries, dovish Fed hopes, or weak macroeconomic data may keep piling pressure on USD/JPY. When the pair falls below the 143.20 mark, which is a key Fibonacci support, it could unleash heavy technical selling. This would project the fall further to 142.35 and even to the 142.00 area. Additional geopolitical tensions or robust Japanese numbers might support the safe-haven demand for the Yen, extending the move lower in the next sessions.

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