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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Target 1.2724 In Continuing Uptrend

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  • March 4, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair trades below the 1.2700 level at a three-month high, looking bullish in an uptrend channel formation. The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating firm momentum, while the pair stays above the nine- and 14-day EMAs to confirm short-term strength. Near-term resistance is at 1.2724, with further potential gains to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 figure. On the negative side, early support is at 1.2639, then 1.2613, with a break below having the potential to undermine the bullish bias and leave the pair vulnerable to 1.2560. A firm fall below the channel could take losses down to the three-month low of 1.2249. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD has immediate resistance at 1.2724, with a possible breakout taking it to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 level in the near term. • The nine-day EMA at 1.2639 is also main support, with a breakdown below potentially undermining bullish momentum and sending the pair to 1.2560. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum and backing the expectation of further strength in the near term. • A clean break below the rising channel would change the trend bearish, leaving the pair vulnerable to the crucial support level of 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues in a bullish trend, trading below the 1.2700 level with the important resistance of 1.2724 in sight. A clean break above this level may take the pair to 1.2780 and the psychological level of 1.2800. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating ongoing bullish pressure, and the pair trading above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, affirming short-term strength. On the negative side, the nearest support is at 1.2639, with support at 1.2613 afterwards. A fall below these levels might undercut bullish sentiment, leaving a fall to 1.2560 or even the three-month low at 1.2249 if the rising channel breaks. GBP/USD is still bullish, trading below 1.2700 with major resistance at 1.2724. A breakout would take it to 1.2780, while support at 1.2639 would cap downside risks. A fall below the rising channel would undermine momentum, revealing 1.2249. • A breakout above this level would take GBP/USD to 1.2780 and the psychological resistance at 1.2800. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting ongoing strength and a bullish bias in the market. • These levels (nine- and 14-day EMAs) serve as integral support levels, holding off an anticipated downside action. • GBP/USD continues to trade within an upward-moving channel, emphasizing a bullish outlook in the near term. • A breach through the lower trend line of the upward-moving channel at 1.2560 may erode the bullish action. • Depending on bullish strength being maintained, GBP/USD may test 1.2800, which is a serious psychological resistance level. • A sharp fall below the 1.2560 support area may leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, testing the three-month low at 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues to attract attention from investors, mirroring the economic interactions between the US and the UK. Traders keenly monitor economic data releases, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical events impacting the pair’s price action. Other factors, including inflation reports, jobs reports, and monetary policies, also influence the market’s sentiment. Moreover, more general global events, such as trade policy and economic projections, also influence demand swings for both the British pound and the US dollar. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Risk appetite also influences the sentiment of the GBP/USD market, with currency flows affected. In periods of economic stability, traders tend to opt for riskier assets at the expense of the pound, while uncertainty tends to fuel demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven. The dynamic interaction between Bank of England monetary policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies is still the principal driver that guides long-term currency pair trends. Additionally, economic performance, political events, and trade relations in both nations will continue to influence market expectations, making GBP/USD an important pair to follow for forex traders and investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues in an uptrend channel, pointing to ongoing bull run. Price action continues to be above pivotal moving averages, supporting short-term strength, and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 showing consistent buying pressure. Resistance is seen at 1.2724, with a possible breakout setting the stage for further advances to 1.2780 and the psychological mark of 1.2800. On the other hand, near-term support is at 1.2639, with a break below having the potential to test the lower limit around 1.2560. A firm move below this level has the potential to change momentum in the bears’ favor, challenging the overall uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD might see its further ascend, particularly in case that momentum remains healthy on the bull and the pair gets past the resistance level of 1.2724.  A breach could open up even more strength all the way towards the subsequent level of resistance of 1.2780 before the psychologically charged level of 1.2800. Encouraging economic news in the UK, like better GDP growth, falling inflation, or a hawkish policy from the Bank of England, may continue to underpin the strength of the pound. A weaker US dollar, propelled by dovish messages from the Federal Reserve or risk-on flows in international markets, may also add to bullish pressure in the pair. To the downside, GBP/USD has major support at 1.2639, and a move below it will perhaps indicate the loss of momentum, triggering a fall to 1.2560. In case bearish pressure builds and the pair moves below the rising channel, a further fall is possible, with the next strong support being at 1.2500. Factors that may trigger a bearish perspective are dismal UK economic data, a tougher Federal Reserve line on interest rates, or heightened risk aversion in international markets that boosts demand for the US dollar. A more severe correction may leave GBP/USD open to additional downward risks, and potentially challenge the three-month trough of 1.2249 if selling pressures continue.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Steady at $31.50 as Rising Trade War Uncertainty Takes Grip

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  • March 4, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) remains steady at $31.50, supported by safe-haven buying as world trade tensions grow. The White House announced President Trump signed the order increasing the tariffs on imports from China to 20%, and Canada replied with retaliatory 25% tariffs on imports from the United States. China has also pledged countermeasures, further pushing market uncertainty. Mixed U.S. economic reports, such as a modest fall in ISM Manufacturing PMI but a better-than-expected S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, contribute to the market’s conservative sentiment. Investors are now eyeing future U.S. employment reports, which may affect the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing U.S.-China trade tensions and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs may fuel safe-haven demand, affecting silver prices in the short term. • Investors look for U.S. employment figures, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, to gauge possible Fed interest rate actions. • Indecisive U.S. manufacturing reports create economic uncertainty, making future releases pivotal in influencing silver price directions and investor attitude. • China’s commitment to countermeasures against U.S. tariffs will introduce volatility, keeping silver an attractive hedge against economic uncertainty. Silver prices are underpinned above $31.50 as rising tensions in trade among the U.S., China, and Canada spur safe-haven buying. The move by President Trump to hike tariffs on imports from China to 20% has prompted countermeasures, with Canada saying it will slap a 25% tariff on U.S. products and China promising countermeasures. In the meantime, conflicting U.S. factory data contributes to market uncertainty, keeping investors on guard before the important employment reports, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls. These economic releases will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which will have an impact on silver’s direction in the next sessions. Silver prices hold firm above $31.50 as mounting trade tensions drive safe-haven demand. Tariffs on China by the U.S. and Canadian retaliatory actions introduce uncertainty, while future U.S. jobs reports may determine the Federal Reserve’s policy and silver’s price action. • Silver holds firm above $31.50 as investors flee to safe havens amidst growing global trade tensions. • Trump’s 20% levy on Chinese imports has induced China to pledge countermeasures, introducing market uncertainty. • Canada intends to place a 25% tariff on imports from the U.S. totaling C$30 billion should U.S. tariffs be imposed. • Heightening trade tensions contribute to volatility, and thus silver is becoming an appealing hedge against economic turbulence. • Though ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened, S&P Global’s final February PMI topped forecasts, heightening uncertainty. • ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls are awaited for hints at potential Fed interest rate action. • Silver’s path will be contingent on developments in trade tensions and important economic indicators impacting investor sentiment. Silver remains strong in demand as global trade tensions intensify, further solidifying its position as a safe-haven asset of choice. With the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods and Canada announcing retaliatory actions, investors are looking to silver more than ever as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The constant trade wars are not only affecting diplomatic relations but also creating supply chain and global economic stability fears. Silver is thus still a safe haven for investors looking for stability in times of uncertainty. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Outside of trade policy, economic statistics and geopolitical uncertainty have a significant influence on sentiment in the market. The U.S. employment figures are under close watch by investors, as the direction of labor market trends tends to inform overall economic decisions. China’s willingness to pursue countermeasures to U.S. tariffs provides another source of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, silver’s function as a store of value is increasingly prominent, further solidifying its status as a preferred asset during times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) is holding steady above $31.50, with good support at this price as buyers remain in control. The price is holding above important moving averages, a sign of continued bullish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still close to neutral levels, indicating scope for additional gains without underlying overbought levels. Also, silver is probing a resistance area near $31.70, and a strong breakout above this level can pave the way for additional advances. But if it fails to maintain current support levels, it can lead to a consolidation period before the next direction. Price action is closely monitored by traders for confirmation of the next direction. FORECAST Silver prices may extend the upside further if global trade tensions continue to mount, forcing investors into safe-haven assets. A convincing breakout above the $31.70 resistance level can lead to further advances, which can even challenge the $32.00 mark in the near term. If coming U.S. economic reports, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, point to economic weakness, hopes of a more dovish Federal Reserve will further lend support to silver prices. Further, any other retaliatory Chinese or Canadian trade action will increase uncertainty, lending more bullish value to silver. Downside risk will come if trade tensions lessen or economic data hints at a strong U.S. labor market, causing selling in silver due to improving risk appetite. A dip below the key support at $31.50 may initiate a correction, potentially driving prices towards the $31.20 or even $31.00 levels. Moreover, a firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields may pressure silver, as investors redirect attention towards interest-bearing assets. In the short term, silver’s direction will be influenced by geopolitical events and economic indicators that influence market sentiment.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rises on Hopes of Ukraine Peace, but ECB Policy and Tariff War Risks Lurk

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  • March 4, 2025
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EUR/USD keeps rising towards the 1.0500 level on hopes of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Yet, the pair’s rally is capped by increased global risk aversion amid heightened trade tensions. US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, and Canada and China have responded with retaliatory actions. Moreover, the US has suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, further adding to geopolitical volatility. In the meantime, the Euro can expect additional pressure before the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, when a widely anticipated rate cut can weigh on the currency. Sidelined US economic data have also added to market uncertainty, leaving traders hesitant to bet on the near-term outlook of the Euro. KEY LOOKOUTS • Optimism regarding a formal Ukraine peace plan is supportive of EUR/USD, but uncertainty prevails as the US suspends military aid to Ukraine. • Trump’s China tariff increases and possible retaliatory actions by Canada and China may spark risk aversion, capping the Euro’s upside potential. • The European Central Bank will likely reduce rates again, which may put pressure on the Euro and affect EUR/USD’s short-term direction. • Disagreement on US manufacturing data contributes to market uncertainty, making investors wary of the Federal Reserve’s next step and dollar strength. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight as hopes for a Ukraine peace agreement offer support, but rising global trade tensions and policy risks cap further advances. The US has suspended all military aid to Ukraine at the direction of President Trump, contributing to geopolitical uncertainty. While Trump’s move to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% has prompted threat of retaliation from Canada and China, it is adding to risk aversion. The European Central Bank meeting also looms as a major trigger, with an expected rate cut that can depreciate the Euro. Also, conflicting US economic data have put investors in confusion regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, which is keeping the currency market nervous. EUR/USD rises on optimism for Ukraine peace agreement but tests resistance as global risk aversion increases. A further escalation in US-China trade tensions and the anticipated ECB rate cut may act as a dampener for the Euro. Heterogeneous US economic data brings more uncertainty to the table, maintaining market mood cautious. • The pair extends its rally at 1.0500 with support from hope for a Ukraine peace agreement. • The US suspended all military aid to Ukraine, further fuelling world tensions and market conservatism. • Trump increases tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, inviting retaliatory threats from Canada and China, elevating risk aversion. • The European Central Bank will likely lower the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps, possibly putting pressure on the Euro. • Conflicting US economic indicators, such as a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI and a firmer S&P Global PMI, contribute to investor uncertainty. • Risk sentiment and policy issues may limit further gains in the Euro despite recent rallies. • Ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path keeps traders on their toes, influencing EUR/USD price action. Global markets are in suspense as geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts define the economic environment. Hopes for a formal Ukraine peace agreement have arisen, with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy negotiating a plan to be presented to the US. However, doubts intensified as the US government suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, fuelling fears over long-term stability in the region. Meanwhile, trade tensions between economies increased, with President Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China strongly opposing, with possible retaliatory measures from Canada. These events underscore the increasing polarization in global relations, impacting investor sentiment and economic policies across the globe. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the economic side, policymakers and market players are keeping a close eye on the European Central Bank’s next meeting, where a possible rate cut is anticipated. Such monetary policy has a significant impact on financial planning and world economic growth. In the US, meanwhile, conflicting economic data have contributed to the uncertainty, with varying indicators of manufacturing performance capturing the difficulty of sustaining stability in a volatile environment. While global economies ride this ride, companies and governments have to be flexible to changing economic circumstances and global policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is stuck around 1.0500, with risk aversion cappping its upside. The pair has been on the verge of consolidation, with market players keenly observing key resistances and supports for signs of a breakout. Moving averages are bearish, while momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicative of indecisiveness in market sentiment. A break above near-term resistance could set the stage for additional gains, while inability to maintain key support levels could prompt a pullback. Technical signals overall point to EUR/USD being in a precarious area, waiting for a more robust catalyst for directional momentum. FORECAST EUR/USD may rise further if sentiment towards the Ukraine peace agreement gets a boost, which would enhance market risk appetite. A diplomatic settlement would alleviate geopolitical risk, potentially strengthening the Euro. Also, if economic statistics from the Eurozone are stronger than anticipated or the European Central Bank (ECB) is less dovish than anticipated, the pair could get further backing. Any US dollar weakness caused by changing Federal Reserve policy or weaker economic data would also provide space for a move upwards. A move above major resistance levels might drive the pair to higher price ranges in the near future. EUR/USD is subject to several downside threats that would limit its momentum. Increased risk aversion as a result of rising trade tensions—like Trump’s raised tariffs on China and possible retaliations from Canada and China—may support the US dollar, which would bear down on the Euro. If the ECB acts on a highly anticipated rate cut or hints at more monetary easing, the Euro could fall as well. Any better-than-expected US economic data would be supportive of the dollar’s advance, which would see the pair fall. A breakdown of crucial support levels could lead to more losses, leaving

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Drops 4% This Week on Strong US Dollar and Market Uncertainty

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  • March 1, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) saw a sharp fall of almost 4% this week, falling to $31.13 as the rally in the US Dollar and profit taking weighed on the market. Even as silver tried to remain above $33.00, it saw intense selling pressure, leading to a pullback towards major support levels. The 100-day SMA at $31.20 was violated, leaving the 50-day SMA at $30.89 as the following pivotal level. In case of additional bearish momentum, silver may test the 200-day SMA at $30.47 and the low in January of $29.70. Since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates increasing bearish momentum, market participants remain vigilant for possible additional losses. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver is challenging the 50-day SMA level of $30.89; a fall below may expose the 200-day SMA level of $30.47 and $29.70. • Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows increasing selling pressure, pointing towards further downward risk if silver is unable to regain key levels of resistance. • A resilient US Dollar keeps silver prices suppressed, with market sentiment changing with economic uncertainty and possible recession risks. • Should silver stabilize at levels above $31.00 and breach the $33.00 level, buyers could take the upper hand, taking prices towards the resistance at $34.00. Silver (XAG/USD) is pressured following a near 4% weekly decline, with key support levels under focus. The 50-day SMA level of $30.89 is an important level to watch; a breach below here may lead to more losses towards the 200-day SMA level of $30.47 and the January low at $29.70. The risk-off environment and the appreciating US Dollar are driving bearish pressure, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Yet, if silver can sustain itself above $31.00 and push through $33.00, a possible reversal to $34.00 may be imminent. Traders need to watch closely for market sentiment and upcoming economic reports for further guidance. Silver (XAG/USD) faces strong selling pressure, dropping nearly 4% weekly as the US Dollar strengthens. Key support at $30.89 remains critical for future price action. • XAG/USD declined nearly 4% as the strengthening US Dollar and profit booking weighed on prices. • The 50-day SMA is a crucial support level; a break below could lead to further declines toward $30.47 and $29.70. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) warns of building selling pressure, suggesting the potential for prolonged downside movement. • The strong USD remains bearing down on silver prices, with investors shunning the metal and rushing to safe-haven assets due to economic worries. • Should silver stabilize above $31.00 and rise through $33.00, then a bullish move toward $34.00 is feasible. • Coming economic data and risk sentiment will go a long way in dictating the next direction for silver. • Uncertainty in global markets and technical levels indicate that silver’s direction is based on whether buyers will be able to take control. Silver is still a vital asset in the world financial market, which is controlled by economic trends, investor attitude, and wider macroeconomic factors. The precious metal has been considered both an industrial commodity and a store of value for long, making investors seek stability amid economic uncertainties. Inflation trends, central bank actions, and geopolitical events all contribute to silver’s demand significantly. The use of the metal in industries like electronics, solar panels, and medical uses keeps it relevant for purposes other than investment alone. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Market trends and investor sentiment globally continue to influence silver’s performance. During economic uncertainties, silver tends to experience added interest as a inflation hedge and currency volatility hedge. On the other hand, its industrial demand depends on economic growth and technological innovation. As the world continues to shift toward energy transition and industrial uses, silver’s function continues to be dynamic, and it is something that investors and manufacturers watch closely. With changing market conditions, the role of silver in investment portfolios and industrial applications is likely to continue. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver points to significant support and resistance levels being keenly monitored by traders. The metal has just seen selling pressure after it could not hold up above $33.00, resulting in a test of lower support levels. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.89 is a key level, with a break below opening up further potential downside to the 200-day SMA at $30.47. Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests increasing bearish momentum, implying that bears are currently dominant. Yet if silver holds higher above $31.00 and bulls turn back up, a possible reversal back to $33.00 and higher may be underway. Traders must monitor price action and major moving averages to determine future trends. FORECAST Silver’s bullish forecast hinges on major factors including renewed investor appetite, US Dollar weakening, and strengthening industrial demand. If silver can stay above the $31.00 level and break above the $33.00 resistance level, it may regain its upward momentum. A breakout above this level could trigger additional buying, driving prices towards $34.00 and beyond. Moreover, if inflation fears return or central banks turn dovish, silver might gain as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Solid demand from the renewable energy and technology industries could also fuel long-term price appreciation. Silver is still at risk of a stronger US Dollar and changing market sentiment on the downside. If prices cannot hold above key levels of support, especially the 50-day SMA of $30.89, additional losses will be possible. A breach through this level will expose silver to more losses, testing the 200-day SMA of $30.47 and potentially the January low of $29.70. Slowing economies or slackening industrial demand will add more pressure to the performance of silver. Further, if risk appetite grows and investors move to equities or other high-yielding assets, silver can face protracted selling pressure.

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Crypto Ethereum

Bearish Momentum Takes Over: Will Ethereum Recover from the $2,200 Support?

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  • March 1, 2025
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Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing great bearish pressure as whales and long-term holders dump their coins, leading to a massive increase in exchange reserves. With more than 620K ETH dumped in the last five days and exchange deposits well above 500K ETH, bearish pressure has forced prices to battle around the $2,200 support level. Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD validate strong bearish momentum, with a possible fall to $1,500 if selling continues. The oversold Stochastic Oscillator, however, suggests a possible bounce if ETH can retake key resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • More than 620K ETH sold in five days, mounting bearish pressure and indicating possible further drops in Ethereum’s price. • More than 500K ETH sent to exchanges after February 21, indicating increased selling pressure and a potential test of lower support levels. • RSI and MACD still below neutral, showing ongoing bearish momentum, while the oversold Stochastic Oscillator suggests a potential short-term bounce. • Ethereum struggles at $2,200; inability to hold could send prices lower to $1,500, while a close above $2,850 would negate bearish trends. Ethereum (ETH) comes under increased bear pressure as whales and long-term holders dump enormous quantities of ETH, increasing exchange reserves by more than 500K ETH. Fighting to maintain the $2,200 level of support, ETH stands at the risk of declining to $1,500 in case selling prevails. Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD show strong bear momentum, but an oversold Stochastic Oscillator indicates the likelihood of a short-term recovery. A break above $2,850 would change sentiment to bullish, but for now, traders take a cautious stance with continued sell-offs and uncertainty in the markets. Ethereum finds it difficult to defend the $2,200 level as whales and long-term holders increase selling pressure. A descent to $1,500 cannot be ruled out unless bullish strength returns. • More than 620K ETH sold in five days, which increases bearish momentum and pushes prices towards support levels. • More than 500K ETH sent to exchanges after February 21, reflecting heightened selling pressure and market wariness. • Ethereum struggles to maintain this key support level, with threats of a possible fall to $1,500 if bearish pressure persists. • ETH experienced $231.69 million in 24-hour futures liquidations, with long positions suffering heavy losses. • RSI and MACD still below neutral, affirming strong selling pressure and absence of near-term bullish signals. • Stochastic Oscillator in oversold region indicates potential recovery if market mood changes. • A weekly close above the level may negate the bearish scenario and revive bullish forces for Ethereum. Ethereum is experiencing a considerable change in market dynamics since massive investors such as whales and long-term holders are subjecting it to heavy selling pressure. This trend is responsible for the significant increase in exchange reserves, which means more ETH is being transferred to places where it is traded or liquidated. More institutional and retail investors participating in selling is also an indication that there is a shift in sentiment, with many deciding to lock in profits or reduce potential losses. These kinds of movements show the changing face of Ethereum’s market, with investor psychology and external economic pressures at play. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Amid these shifts, the Ethereum ecosystem continues to evolve, with ongoing developments aimed at strengthening its network and community engagement. The Ethereum Foundation recently introduced the Silviculture Society, an initiative designed to amplify the voices of builders and core community members. This experimental effort reflects Ethereum’s commitment to decentralization and innovation, ensuring that key contributors have a say in its future direction. As the market goes through these changes, Ethereum is still at the forefront of blockchain innovation and continues to be relevant in this increasingly competitive market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical indicators of Ethereum point to the continuation of bearish momentum as price action fails to sustain key support levels. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is still below its neutral level, reflecting ongoing selling pressure, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum. Besides that, the rise in dormant circulation and falling coin age mean that long-term holders are redeploying their holdings, which contributes to market volatility. But the Stochastic Oscillator is well into the oversold territory and indicates a possible near-term rally if the buying recovers. A convincing close above $2,850 could quash the bearish scenario and inspire renewed optimism among bulls. FORECAST Ethereum remains poised for a recovery if sentiment in the market switches in favor of the buyers. The oversold nature as determined by the Stochastic Oscillator also means that ETH may experience short-term recovery as sellers seek to buy in. Moreover, any positive macroeconomic news, clarifications in regulations, or institutional activity could propel renewed upward momentum. If Ethereum can break through significant resistance levels, especially the $2,850 level, it may resume its upward trend and move towards new highs. Greater adoption of Ethereum’s blockchain technology and innovation in the ecosystem, including scalability enhancements and institutional deals, may also support long-term growth. To the downside, Ethereum is still at risk of further drops if whales and long-term holders continue to apply selling pressure. The increase in exchange reserves indicates that additional ETH is being placed for possible liquidation, which can dampen upward momentum. If Ethereum cannot maintain the $2,200 support level, it can continue to lose, potentially testing the $1,500 level. Overall economic conditions, such as inflation fears and worldwide market uncertainty, may also influence investor sentiment, causing extended bearishness. Also, any hiccups or delays in Ethereum’s network updates or regulatory issues would put more downward pressure on the market.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall With USD Strength, Trade Policy Risks: Reactions and Forecast

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  • March 1, 2025
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Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, reaching $2,845, as the US Dollar rose to a 10-day high of 107.66 on concerns about increasing trade policy risks and recession. The market responded violently to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the expectation of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 with the first cut expected in June. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also indicated that progress toward the 2% inflation goal was being made, further stoking speculation of monetary ease. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped modestly, underpinning the USD rally, and traders took profits before the weekend. In spite of the recent bearish pressure, Goldman Sachs kept its medium-term bullish call, predicting the price of gold to hit $3,100 by the last quarter of 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar rallied in light of increasing trade tensions, as Trump levied 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, triggering market anxiety and recession jitters. • Markets expect a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, with the initial cut expected in June, which may affect gold prices and investor attitudes. • XAU/USD has critical support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900, with bearish momentum ongoing as traders take profits and rebalance portfolios. • In spite of short-term declines, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, forecasting gold prices to touch $3,100 by 2025-end. Gold prices have come under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% this week as the US Dollar gained strength in the face of increasing trade tensions and recession concerns. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China has created market uncertainty, pushing investors towards the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in June, have further influenced market sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s Core PCE Price Index signaled steady progress toward the 2% inflation target, reinforcing speculation of policy easing. Technically, XAU/USD struggles below $2,850, with key support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900. In spite of the recent decline, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about the long-term prospects, predicting gold prices to reach $3,100 by the end of 2025. Gold prices dived more than 3% this week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of trade policy worries and recession risk. Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada heightened market uncertainty, and the prospect of a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025 contributed to volatility. In the short term, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, predicting gold to hit $3,100 by the close of 2025. • XAU/USD dropped to $2,845 as the US Dollar gained strength due to trade tensions and recession fears. • The US imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China, creating uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 107.66, putting pressure on gold prices and drawing investors due to economic worries. • Markets are expecting a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, starting with the June cut, guiding gold’s movement. • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell modestly, driven by fears of economic slowdown and even monetary easing. • Gold has resistance at $2,900 and support at $2,800, as bearish momentum continues in the short term. • In spite of recent setbacks, Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, holding an upbeat long-term estimate. Gold prices came under heavy pressure this week as global economic issues and policy announcements influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar rallied with increased trade tensions, with President Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% on Chinese imports. These policies have contributed to economic uncertainty worldwide, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets and review their portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also showed consistent advancement toward the 2% goal, supporting expectations of monetary policy loosening in the months ahead. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, market attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with investors expecting a 70-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the initial cut expected in June. As growth forecasts for the economy change, worries about a possible recession continue to guide investments. The Atlanta Fed’s most recent GDPNow estimate is an indicator that the US economy is going into contraction, fueling speculation for future policy action. In the midst of these developments, financial markets across the globe are on tenterhooks, with investors keenly watching economic signals and policy initiatives that may impact financial markets over the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Precious gold prices have shown a bearish trend, posting consecutive losses as investors take profits and rebalance portfolios. XAU/USD was unable to sustain above the $2,850 level after dipping from its high point of $2,885, with major support at $2,800. A fall below this level would reveal further downside to the October 31 high at $2,790 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770. Support on the upside is at $2,900, then the year-to-date high of $2,956. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.229% has so far capped bullion’s rally, with falling real yields presenting ambivalent cues for gold’s next direction. With sustained market volatility, investors are on guard, weighing whether gold can stabilize or continue to lose ground. FORECAST Gold prices can expect bullish pressure in the next few months if market fears continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2025, with the first decrease scheduled for June, will weaken the US Dollar, making gold more desirable to investors. Furthermore, should inflationary forces continue or there is a ratcheting of geopolitical tensions, gold may turn stronger again with possible resistance areas at $2,900 and the year-high of $2,956. Long-term views, like that of Goldman Sachs’ expectation that gold will trade at $3,100 through the end of 2025, suggest the metal will

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strength Fades as Range-Bound Trading Takes Center Stage

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  • February 28, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a range-bound stage following the recent two-week Pound Sterling strength that has now faded. According to analysts at UOB Group, although the sharp decline in GBP may be prolonged, oversold levels point to any drop being contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 level. A decisive dip below 1.2570 is not anticipated in the short term, with the overall expectation for GBP/USD to trade between 1.2520 and 1.2670. This transition represents the end of bullish momentum, with a phase of consolidation for the currency pair now to follow. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is likely to trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range, indicating the end of its recent bullish momentum. • As the Pound fell sharply, the oversold market conditions indicate that downside may be contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 band. • The support level is at 1.2570, and resistance is at about 1.2670, outlining the possible trading limits for GBP/USD. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the erosion of bullish momentum, which points towards consolidation instead of further advance. The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a consolidation mode, with the recent bullish trend having lost steam, according to analysts. The sudden decline of the Pound Sterling indicates possible further falls, yet oversold levels suggest the downside may not be extensive within the 1.2570–1.2640 zone. Major support is at 1.2570, while the resistance lies around 1.2670, which is the likely trading range in the near future. The break of 1.2615 validated the reversal of the uptrend, moving the outlook towards a range-bound move instead of an extension of the rally. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range as market sentiment transforms. GBP/USD has turned range-bound, with support at 1.2570 and resistance at 1.2670. Oversold levels indicate limited downside, while momentum changes point towards consolidation in the offing. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range. • GBP/USD should trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range as bullish momentum ebbs. • The sudden fall in GBP in recent times indicates further decline, but oversold levels might restrict downward movement. • 1.2570 is the key support level, and 1.2670 is close to the resistance level, setting the range for expected trading. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the reversal of GBP’s recent strength, and a consolidation phase was indicated. • It is possible for further dips to occur, with a clean breakdown below 1.2570 being improbable in the short run. • Markets need to keep an eye out for movements in the range with changes in sentiment and economic inputs determining GBP/USD prices. • The currency pair will more likely be sideways until new driving factors create a breakout beyond these set levels. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a stable phase at present, with investors following its trend closely. The movement of GBP/USD depends on general economic factors like inflation rates, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical factors, which dictate the value of currencies. Market sentiment is of utmost importance for determining the movement of GBP/USD, with investors evaluating economic policies and overall financial trends. Furthermore, external influences such as trade relations and central bank policies play a role in determining the long-term direction of the currency pair. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView During this phase, market participants are focusing on strategic decision-making according to market trends and fundamental indicators. The influence of financial institutions, economic reports, and policy announcements remains important in determining expectations. Knowledge of the overall economic environment is vital in making trading decisions, as global market conditions and investor sentiment significantly influence currency stability. Keeping abreast of major economic events and financial news continues to be important for those following the GBP/USD pair in today’s environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair shows a consolidation period, with the currency trading in a well-defined range. Major support is seen at 1.2570, and resistance at 1.2670 indicates limited short-term price movement. The break below 1.2615 reinforced the weakening of bullish energy, forming a range-bound pattern. Moving averages and RSI point towards neutral to weakly bearish sentiment, although oversold readings indicate stabilization potential. Traders are awaiting a breakout of this range, which may lead to the pair’s next directional move. FORECAST GBP/USD may try to breach the 1.2670 resistance point if upbeat economic data or a weaker US Dollar propels it. Dovish Federal Reserve cues, solid UK economic growth, or tame inflation levels are some of the factors that can give a boost to further rallies. A prolonged breach above this level can be a sign of the possibility of a longer-term bullish trend. On the other hand, bearish risks persist if the bearish tone gets stronger and pushes below the critical 1.2570 support. Deterioration in UK economic data, anxiety regarding interest rate policies, or a rise in the US Dollar could weigh down on GBP/USD. Once the pair moves below this support, it may leave the stage open for deeper falls, at least testing lower levels in the weeks ahead. Traders should also keep a close eye on economic releases, central bank announcements, and market trends to predict probable price movements.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dives to Three-Week Low in Face of Steeper USD and Fed Policy Sentiment Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have fallen to a three-week low, closer to the $2,850 level, after a steeper US Dollar and anticipation of the Federal Reserve extending its hawkish policy pushed it lower. While there has been a risk-off market mood as well as lower US Treasury bond yields, the precious metal persists in its bearish trend for the second session in a row. Investors are waiting with bated breath for the coming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation gauge that may shape the Fed’s interest rate view and dictate gold’s short-term direction. Technicals also paint a bearish picture, with more room for decline if support levels are broken. KEY LOOKOUTS • A generally firmer USD continues to weigh on gold prices as investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the face of ongoing inflation fears. • The release of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is likely to impact Fed interest rate decisions and may determine the direction of gold in the near future. • Gold has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which could mean an extended decline if major support levels near $2,800 hold firm. • Investors are wary of global economic risks, such as possible inflationary pressures from Trump’s planned tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and European Union imports. Gold prices continue to decline, hitting a three-week low of about $2,850 as a firmer US Dollar and the anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve dampen the market. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation indicator that may affect the Fed’s interest rate policy and, in turn, gold’s direction. Gold is still under selling pressure despite a risk-off mood and declining US Treasury yields. Technical indicators are signaling further weakness if major support levels, especially around $2,800, are broken. Moreover, market anxiety regarding possible inflationary impacts from Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and the European Union contributes to uncertainty in gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices declined to a three-week low around $2,850 due to a stronger USD and the anticipation of a hawkish Fed. Market participants are waiting for US PCE inflation data that could have implications for interest rates and gold’s direction. Technical indicators indicate more downside if support levels are breached. • XAU/USD declines around $2,850 as a stronger US Dollar weighs down on the market. • The US Dollar remains on the mend with expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. • Market participants look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for guidance on the Fed’s next step. • Policymakers focus on taming inflation, dampening expectations of rate cuts. • Gold falls below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating further losses if major support around $2,800 breaks. • In spite of market uncertainties, gold finds it difficult to attract safe-haven demand. • Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU can affect inflation and guide gold’s direction. Gold prices continue to be pressured due to a firming US Dollar and anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve depressing market sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is a key inflation indicator, is in the spotlight as market participants seek guidance on future interest rate action. As inflation fears continue, Fed policymakers have signaled a prudent stance towards cutting interest rates, supporting the Dollar’s strength. Moreover, recent evidence of steady US economic growth also makes the argument for maintaining interest rates high, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical and trade-related concerns contribute to the uncertainty. Investors are intently watching proposed tariffs by former US President Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, which can be inflationary in nature. These trade measures can influence global economic stability, shaping market sentiment for safe-haven assets. In the meanwhile, falling US Treasury bond yields and general risk-off market conditions have not gone far in favor of gold since traders are staying guarded before critical economic data and policy indications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has fallen beneath significant support points, suggesting potential extension of its corrective decline. The price has fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line of the rally from December through February, portending growing bearish momentum. Daily chart oscillators are establishing negative momentum, supporting the chance for further falls. If the sellers force the price down below the $2,855 level, the next major support is close to the $2,834 area, and then the 38.2% Fibonacci of $2,815-$2,810. A clear fall below the psychological $2,800 level could seal a bearish reversal. Conversely, a bounce above $2,867 might encounter resistance around the $2,885-$2,900 area, with continuous buying potentially revealing the all-time high of $2,956. FORECAST Gold may strengthen if future US economic releases, especially the PCE Price Index, indicate decelerating inflation, leading to hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve. A lower inflation reading can raise the chances of interest rate reductions, weakening the US Dollar and strengthening demand for gold as a safe-haven. Should gold recover the $2,867 resistance level, it may probe the $2,885-$2,900 zone, while a sustained breakout may propel it towards the $2,915 level. Stronger follow-through buying could take prices even closer to the lifetime high of $2,956 as buying interest picks up. Against the downside, gold will continue to be at risk if inflation does not recede and Fed officials continue to hint at a hawkish bias, underpinning the resilience of the US Dollar. A failure at levels above $2,855 would unleash a further bout of selling pressure that would push the price towards $2,834 support. A firm break beneath the $2,815-$2,810 zone would invite a slide toward the important psychological level of $2,800. If fear prevails, further losses look likely, that could push the price below $2,780, indicating an extended correction off recent highs.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Rally Falters Amid Institutional Selling and Tariff Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Bitcoin was highly volatile this week, trading at around $86,000 following a steep 15% drop that saw prices dip as low as $82,256. The decline was largely fueled by President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and declining institutional demand, as seen through massive ETF outflows of $2.2 billion. Technical indicators, such as an oversold RSI, suggest a possible rebound, but traders are still wary in the face of general market uncertainty and concerns that more corrections will send Bitcoin’s price to about $73,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in outflows, adding selling pressure and raising questions about sustained downside momentum. • Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and North America add to market uncertainty, potentially putting additional weight on BTC price action. • BTC’s significant support is $73,000; a fall below this may initiate a deeper correction, but RSI suggests potential recovery. • As concerns over stagflation increase, Bitcoin remains trading in tandem with risk assets, with liquidation pressure in the face of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s latest price movement indicates a struggle between rebounding and more downward pressure, with the cryptocurrency stuck near $86,000 after an intense 15% fall this week. The rout was prompted by institutional players liquidating their holdings, with Bitcoin ETFs posting $2.2 billion of net redemptions over the last three days. Compounding the doubts, President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the European Union, as well as delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, triggered risk-off across world markets. The analysts suggest that if bearish pressure continues, BTC can challenge the decisive $73,000 support threshold. But as the RSI indicator also displays oversold, a possible flip remains in consideration, leaving speculators in waiting mode. Bitcoin is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall, fueled by institutional selling and Trump’s tariff threats against the EU. With $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin ETF outflows, market sentiment is still bearish, and BTC may test the $73,000 support level if selling pressure persists. Nevertheless, the RSI indicates oversold levels, which may see a rebound. • BTC is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall earlier this week. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in net outflows in the last three days, adding to selling pressure. • President Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and delayed duties on Canada and Mexico have sparked risk-off sentiment. • Stagflation and economic instability fears have prompted investors to cut risk exposure, affecting BTC prices. • If selling pressure persists, BTC may test the key $73,000 support level in the next few days. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold and may reflect a reversal or bounce. • Although there’s a possibility of a rebound, BTC is still volatile, and traders need to be ready for more price fluctuations. Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the influence of externalities, such as geopolitical tensions and changing investor sentiment. The current tariff talks, especially President Trump’s suggested 25% tariff on the European Union, have introduced uncertainty in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching closely as global economic policies continue to influence the digital asset space. Institutional investors, meanwhile, have been selling their Bitcoin holdings, adding to overall market trends and informing trading behavior. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from market forces, the use of Bitcoin as a hedge for economic uncertainty is also an important topic of discussion. While others consider it a store of value, there are others who perceive it as a high-risk asset to be buffeted by external factors. The cryptocurrency market is always closely associated with macroeconomic indicators, regulatory actions, and investor sentiment, all of which are influential in determining its future. With the changing global financial environment, Bitcoin remains in the middle of all the talk regarding digital assets and their role in today’s economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin recently broke below significant support levels, which was a sign of a change in momentum. The recent selling pressure, fueled by institutional outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties, has added to heightened volatility. Nonetheless, technical analysis using Relative Strength Index (RSI) also points toward oversold situations that might precipitate a reversal or short-lived relief rally. Even the trend of volume confirms diminished buying interest that continues to underscore cautious feelings from the trading fraternity. Bitcoin might experience more corrections unless it finds renewed strength past the levels of resistance, yet breaking through principal moving averages will reverse bullish vigor. FORECAST Bitcoin may pick up steam and move towards higher resistance levels. A decline in institutional outflows and renewed buying interest from big investors may create buying pressure, firming up the price. Moreover, any favorable macroeconomic news, including clarity on tariffs or alleviating inflation fears, may restore confidence in risk assets, including BTC. If demand picks up, Bitcoin may regain earlier highs and try to break resistance levels, indicating a possible bullish trend. On the negative side, Bitcoin is still susceptible to further corrections if selling pressure persists. Institutional investors selling their holdings and continued uncertainty regarding global economic policies may trigger another round of declines. If Bitcoin fails to hold onto key support levels, it can test lower price levels, possibly hitting the $73,000 level. Additionally, macroeconomic threats like extended stagflation concerns and decreased liquidity in financial markets may contribute to downward pressure, making short-term recovery difficult.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Crosses 150: Japanese Yen Weakens as Policy Uncertainty and Fed Expectations Bite

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  • February 28, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to depreciate against a relatively stronger US Dollar (USD), with USD/JPY breaking above the 150.00 level as uncertainty over monetary policies grips markets. Japan’s smaller fiscal budget and falling bond yields have put additional pressure on the Yen, though hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes could cap its decline. In the meantime, investors are waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate policy and decide on the next step for USD/JPY. Technically, the pair is still in consolidation mode, with major resistance at 150.30 and nearby support around 149.00. The wider picture indicates the possibility of an extension of losses, yet any upside breakout would propel the pair towards the 152.40 level, a significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 150.30 resistance point remains important, with a breakdown below 149.00 potentially to extend losses towards the 147.00 level. • The Japanese government’s budget reductions might act to soften the Yen, yet BoJ’s resolve to raise rates might act as long-term support. • Merchants look to the PCE Price Index for hints about the Fed’s next step, affecting USD strength and USD/JPY direction. • Risk-off sentiment can increase demand for the safe-haven Yen, slowing USD/JPY gains even as the Dollar is stronger overall. The USD/JPY currency pair is still at a critical crossroads as traders balance Japan’s fiscal reforms with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) possible rate hikes, in addition to waiting for major US economic releases. The budget cutting of the Japanese government and decreased bond yields have been pressuring the Yen, but hopes of more monetary tightening from the BoJ might soften its fall. On the other hand, the US Dollar is strong as it awaits the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which might shape Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for USD/JPY. Technical analysis points to major resistance at 150.30, with a breakaway possibly taking the pair to 152.40, while support is close at 149.00. Market sentiment, especially a move towards risk-off trades, can also influence movement of the pair in the next few sessions. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to the 150.00 level as Japan’s fiscal policy and BoJ’s rate hike chances are compared with US economic indicators. The US PCE Price Index to be released next will have implications for Fed policy, which may affect the Dollar’s strength and Yen’s performance. The significant resistance is 150.30, while the important support lies at 149.00. • The US Dollar gains as the Japanese Yen loses strength, taking USD/JPY higher than the psychological level. • The government spending cuts and decreased bond issuance exert pressure on the Yen, regardless of BoJ’s possible interest rate hikes. • Investors also expect additional BoJ tightening that will cap excessive Yen weakening even with weaker economic data. • The next US PCE Price Index will play a pivotal role in determining the Federal Reserve’s next step. • The crucial resistance is 150.30, while the support is 149.00, with the possibility of losses to 147.00 in case of breaching. • A risk-off sentiment may underpin the Yen as a safe-haven currency, offsetting some USD strength. • Hawkish Fed rhetoric and inflation worries imply minimal near-term rate cuts, maintaining the USD strong against the JPY. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as market participants weigh Japan’s economic policies against global monetary trends. The latest move by the government to slash its fiscal budget and cut back on bond issuance has created alarm over economic growth and financial health. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is, however, sticking with its gradual policy shifts, expecting interest rate rises to persist as inflation edges near the central bank’s 2% target. Even as Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures slowed down, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated the bank’s position, laying stress on the consistent uptick in core inflation. Japan’s industrial production has, however, been in decline, reflecting economic weakness that may go on to shape policy actions in the future. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, investors are watching US economic data closely, especially the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Recent US economic data has continued to point to persistent inflationary pressures, and it implies that the Fed will keep its restrictive policy going for a more extended period of time. Policy-makers have signaled that they will maintain interest rates firm to contain inflation, and hence there is careful market sentiment. Furthermore, worry about possible inflationary threats due to future policies of the US government provides a further source of uncertainty. With traders waiting for fresh economic reports, the general market outlook remains focused on the policies of the central banks as well as the economic performance in Japan and the US. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY continues in a state of consolidation, with the significant levels determining its short-term path. The currency pair has been fluctuating around the 150.00 psychological level, and the immediate resistance is located around 150.30, coinciding with the weekly high. A clean break above this might unleash additional upward momentum, and the 150.90–151.00 zone could be a possible target. To the downside, robust support is noted at 149.00, with a breakdown below this level leaving the pair vulnerable to further losses in the direction of the 148.60–148.55 area. Overall trend indicates that the pair continues in a bearish consolidation pattern after its retracement from the multi-month high of around 159.00 during the early part of the year. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, which means that selling pressure continues, and unless there is a breakout, the overall outlook still supports a downside bias. FORECAST USD/JPY may break above the crucial resistance at 150.30, with the possibility of further increases. A long-term move above this level may lead to short-covering, pushing the pair to the 150.90–151.00

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