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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Safe-Haven Demand Grows and Trade War Fears Bite: Key Drivers Behind XAU/USD Trends

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  • March 5, 2025
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Prices of gold keep rising as demand for safe haven increases in the wake of rising trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports have taken a toll on markets, leading investors to turn to the precious metal as a safe haven. The US also suspended military aid to Ukraine, further boosting gold’s attractiveness. But there are challenges to non-yielding assets such as gold by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. Market players await further guidance from key US economic indicators such as the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change. Technically, gold is still in an uptrend channel, maintaining above important psychological support at $2,900, with scope for more on the upside towards its all-time peak of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • Raising US tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China add to market volatility, fueling safe-haven buying and underpinning gold prices amid economic uncertainty. • Increasing US Treasury yields are exerting bear pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, possibly capping further gains despite firm safe-haven demand. • The US suspension of military aid to Ukraine stokes geopolitical tensions, making gold more attractive as investors seek refuge from global uncertainty. • Future US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports will hold key to gauging economic growth, potentially impacting gold’s short-term price action. Prices of gold continue to be at the center as investors try to navigate a contradictory blend of trade tensions, growing US Treasury yields, and geopolitics. Implementation of US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has added to geopolitical tensions, contributing to gold’s bullishness. Yet increasing Treasury yields are a threat to non-yielding assets such as gold, and this may limit gains. Traders now look forward to some major US economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, which may further guide XAU/USD in the near term. Gold prices jump as growing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties trigger safe-haven demand. Increasing US Treasury yields, however, pose a hurdle to further growth. Market guidance comes from forthcoming key US economic data. • Gold prices jump as investors search for refuge due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. • Fresh US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spur market volatility, contributing to gold’s rising momentum. • US suspension of military aid to Ukraine contributes to worldwide uncertainty, making gold more attractive. • Higher yields squeeze non-yielding assets such as gold, constraining further price appreciation. • A stronger US Dollar suppresses gold, producing mixed market sentiment. • Market participants monitor the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports closely for information about economic growth. • Gold maintains major support at $2,900, with the resistance at its all-time high of $2,956. Gold prices continue to gain steam as investors move towards safe-haven assets following rising global uncertainties. The latest imposition of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China has increased market uncertainty, and with it, there are fears of a possible trade war. This has led investors to find safe haven in gold, which is conventionally considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has further added to global tensions, supporting gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset during uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from trade and geopolitical issues, market participants are also paying close attention to important US economic indicators. Indices like the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change are likely to offer insights into the resilience of the US economy, impacting investor attitudes. Although worries about weakening economic growth continue, the effect of tariffs on international trade and consumer expenditure is a significant area of concern. Against this backdrop, gold remains in the limelight as a safe-haven asset, a sign of investors’ conservative approach to an increasingly complex financial environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is still in an uptrend channel, signaling a long-term bullish trend. The metal is still trading above the important psychological support level of $2,900, which coincides with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, supporting bullish momentum. Should the price hold above this level, it might target primary resistance at $2,956, its all-time high. But a breakdown below immediate support can soften short-term momentum, potentially resulting in a pullback to lower trendline support. In general, technical indicators indicate that the bullish bias is still intact unless a serious breakdown happens. FORECAST Gold prices should continue to enjoy a bullish picture in the near term as demand for safe haven continues to rule investor sentiment. The rising tensions in trade, especially the US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, may further push gold’s attraction. Moreover, geopolitical risks such as the US suspending aid to Ukraine are contributing to risk globally, for which gold seems to be the attractive asset. If economic concerns continue to deepen and market fears intensify, gold may receive an upward push towards its all-time high of $2,956. Solid buying interest at critical support levels and continuous momentum above the $2,900 level might consolidate the bullish trend. To the downside, increasing US Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar might press on gold prices, capping further advances. Increased bond yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which can lead to profit-taking. Also, if the next US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, show the economy is resilient, gold may come under pressure. A break below the $2,900 psychological support level can lead to further losses, with the next significant support at $2,850. But until investor sentiment takes a dramatic turn, any bearish movement could still be capped.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Consolidates Strength on Economic Data and US Dollar Weakness as Major Events Loom

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  • March 5, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate its strength as the US Dollar (USD) stays weak in the face of economic uncertainty and the pending major data releases. Australia’s GDP growth beat forecasts in Q4 2024, bolstering confidence in the economy, while China’s better-than-expected Services PMI further underpinned the AUD. On the other hand, the US is grappling with rising trade policy concerns as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled potential reappraisal of Trump’s tariffs that have already influenced market mood. The AUD/USD pair is quoted around 0.6260, with technicals indicating support at the nine-day EMA and potential downward risks if major support levels are breached. While the market waits for the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, AUD’s strength is once again the currency market focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, beating forecast, affirming economic strength and backing the Australian Dollar during global uncertainty. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested President Trump is considering reversing recently raised tariffs, injecting uncertainty into the US Dollar and affecting market sentiment. • China’s Services PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.4, signaling steady economic growth and offering indirect support to the AUD through trade relations. • The upcoming ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change could influence the USD’s trajectory, shaping short-term movements in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching key economic and policy developments impacting the Australian Dollar and US Dollar. Australia’s better-than-anticipated Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% has strengthened optimism in the economy, while China’s better Services PMI indicates stable growth, indirectly benefiting the AUD. In contrast, uncertainty surrounds US trade policy, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting that President Trump might roll back recently imposed tariffs, creating market volatility. With the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change due for release, investors are weighing the possible influence on the USD, which is still under pressure. These factors combined determine the short-term direction of AUD/USD, with traders keeping an eye on technical support and resistance levels. Australia’s robust Q4 GDP expansion and China’s better Services PMI underpin the Australian Dollar, while uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy continues to keep the USD under pressure. Market participants are looking for pivotal US economic data releases, including ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, to gauge the influence on AUD/USD momentum. • Q4 2024 GDP expanded 0.6% QoQ, above market expectations and further underpinning economic resilience. • The USD is under pressure with market sentiment weighed down by economic uncertainties and trade policy issues. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted Trump might revisit recently imposed tariffs, injecting volatility in the forex market. • The sudden spike to 51.4 indicates consistent economic growth, implicitly backing the Australian Dollar. • Speculators look out for confirmation of releases of major US economic data to determine the short-term direction of the USD. • The two trade close to 0.6260, with support at 0.6271 (nine-day EMA) and possible downside towards 0.6187. • Global trade uncertainty and economic data continue to play a crucial role in driving movements of the forex market, determining AUD/USD trends. The Australian Dollar continues to be strong amidst major economic events and international trade uncertainties. Australia’s GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4 was above market forecasts, indicating the strength of the economy despite global difficulties. Also, China’s better-than-anticipated Services PMI at 51.4 indicates consistent growth, indirectly favoring the AUD because of robust trade relations between the two countries. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still evaluating economic risks, with policymakers keeping a close eye on inflation and labor market performance to inform future monetary policy. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade policy continues to be a pressing issue, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that President Trump might revisit the recently levied tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the trade actions has caused apprehension regarding their long-term effects on economic growth and global trade patterns. Additionally, the US suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, creating yet another layer of geopolitical stress for the market. While investors wait for major US economic releases, such as ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, sentiment in the market is subdued, with attention to economic stability and policy guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6260, with sideways action as the market conditions are evaluated by traders. The pair has immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6271, and a stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of about 0.6303. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, which reflects a risk-averse market sentiment with weak bullish pressure. On the negative side, the major support is at 0.6187, the four-week low seen on March 5. A fall below this level might trigger further drops to 0.6087. With future US economic data releases, AUD/USD price movements might experience greater volatility, impacting short-term technical trends. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) can witness further gains if economic data keeps supporting positive sentiment in the market. With Australia’s Q4 GDP beating forecasts and China’s economic data indicating resilience, the AUD has fundamentals to support gains. If risk sentiment remains steady globally and US economic worries continue, the AUD/USD currency pair can challenge resistance around 0.6300 in the near future. Also, any signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding holding or changing monetary policy could affect investor sentiment and add more support for the currency pair. Downside-wise, the AUD/USD pair remains susceptible to external threats from US trade policy and economic uncertainty in the world. If the US Dollar strengthens on more robust-than-anticipated economic news or a change in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the pair might experience fresh selling pressure. A breakdown below the key support of 0.6187 would initiate a more severe pullback to 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020. Also, geopolitical tensions, including the US suspension of military assistance to Ukraine, may enhance market volatility, which would trigger risk-off sentiment to weigh on the Australian Dollar.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Sustains Strength With China’s Optimistic Services PMI and RBNZ Leadership Change

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  • March 5, 2025
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NZD/USD sustains strength at about 0.5650 as China’s Services PMI picked up optimistically despite a substantial leadership change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The more-than-anticipated increase in China’s Services PMI to 51.4 indicates healthy economic momentum that can affect the New Zealand Dollar on account of good trade relationships. At the same time, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation introduces uncertainty, as Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby takes over on an acting basis until March 31. On the US side, the Greenback comes under pressure as markets respond to newly imposed tariffs by President Trump and rumors of a policy flip. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at around 105.70 amidst increasing fears regarding economic growth and trade policies. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s Services PMI rise to 51.4 indicates economic strength, which could strengthen the New Zealand Dollar as a result of robust trade relations. • Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is uncertain, where Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will hold position temporarily until March 31, waiting for an interim replacement. • President Trump’s tariff increase on Canada, Mexico, and China is under scrutiny, and there are rumors that he might reverse policies in face of economic uncertainty. • US Dollar Index (DXY) near 105.70 captures market anxiety regarding trade tensions and possible changes in Trump’s tariff policy. NZD/USD is holding firm at 0.5650 following a higher-than-expected China Services PMI and major events at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). China’s PMI increased to 51.4, supporting economic durability and possibly underpinning the New Zealand Dollar because of close trading relationships. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is an added uncertainty, with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby holding the fort until a temporary appointment is made. On the American side, President Trump’s latest tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China are under fire, with talk of him revisiting his policy in light of economic worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady at 105.70, a measure of market jitters over trade tensions and policy changes. NZD/USD remains stable around 0.5650 amid a positive China Services PMI and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation. On the other hand, US tariff concerns drag on the US Dollar. • The pair remains stable around 0.5650 amid positive Chinese economic data and leadership changes at the RBNZ. • The index increased to 51.4 in February, above forecast, and points to economic resilience, which could be supportive of the New Zealand Dollar. • Governor Adrian Orr resigns, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby on an acting basis until March 31. • President Trump’s tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China raise market fears, with talk of policy change reversal. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is traded around 105.70, under pressure from below as trade tensions and fears of economic slowdown weigh. • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggests that Trump is considering revising his tariff position within less than 48 hours of imposition. • Economic statistics and trade policy from China, New Zealand, and the US continue to drive market movement and currency performance. NZD/USD stays stable as events on the global economic and political front continue. China’s Services PMI unexpectedly climbed to 51.4, indicating a stronger economy, which is important to New Zealand given their robust trade relationship. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also changing leadership, as Governor Adrian Orr has resigned. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby has taken over as acting governor until March 31, and this brings with it an element of transition within the nation’s financial leadership. Though these elements have contributed to confidence in the market, there are still doubts on how new leadership will influence monetary policies in the future. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Internationally, the US is increasingly plagued by concerns with its recent tariffs. President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has raised questions over possible economic impacts. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the administration could revisit the tariffs, but reports say Trump is keen to keep them in place. This constant uncertainty over trade policies may affect global markets and investor sentiment as companies and governments weigh the long-term effects of these actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading flat at the 0.5650 level, reflecting consolidation following recent market action. The duo encounters instant resistance around the 0.5680 handle, with a break higher perhaps paving the way for more upside momentum. On the flip side, the area of 0.5620 has been a recent support level that has held firm. The 50-day moving average is in a neutral trend, and RSI hovers in a balanced zone, indicating indecision in the market. If the buying momentum picks up, the pair would challenge higher levels of resistance, while a breakdown below significant support levels would initiate further downward movement. FORECAST NZD/USD may steady higher above the 0.5680 resistance level and potentially as far as 0.5720 in the near term. A convincing breakout above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment and drive the pair to 0.5750. Supporting factors for this upward movement would be sustained economic strength in China, favorable sentiment regarding New Zealand’s trade prospects, and weakness in the US Dollar if market worries about trade tariffs increase. Moreover, any dovish communication from the Federal Reserve or de-escalation of US trade tensions would further propel upside movement. To the downside, as selling pressure builds, NZD/USD may test support around 0.5620, and a breakdown below this may see a further fall to 0.5580. A stronger US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand or expectations of hawkish monetary policy, may speed up this decline. On top of that, any negative Chinese economic news or doubt about Reserve Bank of New Zealand leadership succession might act as a drag on the New Zealand Dollar. Under deteriorating global risk sentiment, the pair might experience further losses, with 0.5550 being a key support level to monitor.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum Price Runs into Heavy Resistance as $1.8 Billion Shorts Stop Bull Run

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  • March 4, 2025
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Ethereum price action has been on a rollercoaster ride, shooting 15% up to $2,550 following Trump adding ETH to the US Crypto Strategic Reserve, only to drop 16% to $2,100 as speculators scrambled to take profits. Short sellers have taken over despite bullish sentiments from the Ethereum Foundation’s leadership change, using $1.8 billion in leverage to reinforce bearish control. While ETH falters under critical resistance of $2,400 and technicals reflect weak buying pressure, the market is in suspense. A move above $2,489 would rekindle bullish pressure, but until that happens, ETH has a bruising battle against the bears. KEY LOOKOUTS • With $1.8 billion in shorts, sellers have established robust resistance at $2,400, keeping Ethereum from resuming bullish pressure. • The hiring of Hsiao-Wei Wang and Tomasz Stańczak as co-executive directors may impact long-term market sentiment and project development. • Short-term speculators aggressively booked profits following Trump’s crypto announcement, causing a steep sell-off that halted ETH’s bullish rally at $2,550. • A breakout above the Keltner Channel midline at $2,489 may change momentum, indicating fresh bullish activity with a target towards $2,912. The price action of Ethereum has been highly volatile in recent times, plummeting sharply by 16% to $2,100 after a short 15% rise to $2,550 on the heels of Trump’s approval of ETH in the U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve. Though the leadership reorganization at the Ethereum Foundation fueled hopes, short-term traders quickly took profits, leaving bearish momentum to reign supreme. With $1.8 billion worth of short positions creating a robust resistance at $2,400, ETH is stuck in a consolidation phase. If the buying pressure cannot recapture the midline resistance level of $2,489, Ethereum may see further losses, testing lower support levels of $2,066. Ethereum’s price experienced a steep 16% decline to $2,100 after it briefly surged to $2,550 after Trump’s endorsement and the Ethereum Foundation’s leadership change. With $1.8 billion in short positions providing stiff resistance at $2,400, bearish control continues to pressure the market. A breakout above $2,489 would indicate a possible rebound, but until then, ETH is susceptible to further losses. • Ethereum jumped 15% to $2,550 before dropping 16% to $2,100 as short-term speculators took profits. • ETH was included in the U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve, improving sentiment before profit-taking led to a sell-off. • Hsiao-Wei Wang and Tomasz Stańczak being appointed as co-executive directors may impact long-term growth. • Bears accumulated 55% dominance, building solid resistance at $2,400 and curbing bullish momentum. • ETH lingers below the midline of the Keltner Channel, confining potential for an instant rebound. • In the event of continued selling pressure, Ethereum may test the lower limit of major support levels. • Breaking above $2,489 may initiate a rally towards $2,912, while further losses are possible under bear pressure. The market outlook for Ethereum is currently influenced by major events beyond price action. Ex-U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a Crypto Strategic Reserve has put Ethereum in the limelight together with Bitcoin and other prominent digital currencies. The step is an indicator of increasing political acceptability of digital currencies, which could ultimately lead to increased adoption. Further, the leadership change at the Ethereum Foundation, with Hsiao-Wei Wang and Tomasz Stańczak becoming co-executive directors, has thrown open discussions regarding the network’s future. Their governance is to introduce new ideas to Ethereum development, solving past issues and guiding the network toward long-term development. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In addition to changes in governance, Ethereum remains at the forefront of the blockchain universe, driving decentralized applications (dApps), smart contracts, and DeFi and NFT innovation. As regulatory talks surrounding crypto continue to unfold, Ethereum’s participation in government-sponsored projects would enhance its legitimacy and place within mainstream finance. Yet, market sentiment is still divided as investors wait for more information on how these developments will influence Ethereum’s long-term future. With fresh leadership and greater institutional investment, Ethereum is at a pivotal crossroads that could determine its place in the decentralized technology of the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum technicals show consolidation with high resistance around the $2,400 mark owing to heavy short interest. The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) line depicts diminishing buying sentiment, indicating the possibility of outflows. The Keltner Channel (KC) midline at $2,489 represents a major area of resistance, and a long-term move through this point could signal a restart of bullish vigor. In case of sustained downtrend pressure, $2,066 is an important area of support. Having 55% superiority in short positions, bear sentiment is still predominant, and hence it is extremely important for the bulls to recover the key resistance levels to alter market momentum. FORECAST Ethereum may breach the $2,400 resistance mark, paving the way for a possible rally to $2,489. An extended move over this level will reflect renewed bull sentiment, and ETH can go for the $2,912 mark in future sessions. Positive market catalysts, including additional institutional adoption or positive regulatory advancements, may solidify an upward trend. Also, if the Ethereum Foundation’s leadership overhaul instills confidence in investors, it might support a long-term bull trend. Conversely, if selling remains persistent, Ethereum might find itself unable to sustain existing support levels. A drop below $2,100 can trigger a retest of the $2,066 support level, with lower losses possibly exposing ETH to deeper corrections. With $1.8 billion worth of short positions, bears already have a big advantage, pushing ETH into a period of consolidation. Unless market sentiment turns bullish and capital inflows resume, Ethereum could experience extended price stagnation or lower plunges before trying to rebound.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rallies in the Face of Intensifying Trade War: Safe-Haven Demand and Market Uncertainty Push Prices Up

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  • March 4, 2025
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Gold jumped more than 1% as intensifying trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China drove demand for the safe-haven asset. U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on imports from these nations, leading to retaliatory actions, including a 25% tariff from Canada and up to 15% levies from China on U.S. agricultural goods. The trade war uncertainty, combined with weakening U.S. Treasury yields at a five-month low, has bolstered the appeal of gold. Technicals are pointing towards more bullish pressure, with the main resistance at $2,917 and possible support at $2,866. Market players are also watching Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, which have climbed to 85.6%, further shaping the path of gold. KEY LOOKOUTS • The back-and-forth tariffs among the U.S., Canada, and China are also sparking uncertainty and leading investors towards safe-haven investments such as gold. • The U.S. 10-year yield registered a five-month low at 4.11%, making gold even more appealing as a bet against economic unrest and inflation. • With 85.6% chances of a Fed interest rate cut within six months, falling interest rates would further continue gold’s momentum. • Gold is resisting at $2,917 while support at $2,866 is critical to break in order to avoid another fall in the market. Gold is gaining further traction as rising trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China push investors towards safe-haven. The move by the U.S. to impose retaliatory tariffs, such as Canada’s 25% tariff on American imports and China’s 15% tariffs on agricultural products, has increased market uncertainty. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell to a five-month low of 4.11%, enhancing gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic turmoil further. As Federal Reserve rate cut hopes surged to 85.6% by June, decreasing interest rates could be supportive of gold prices further. From a technical standpoint, gold has resistance at $2,917, and support at $2,866 has to remain firm to avoid further downward pressure. Gold holds up as rising tensions in trade pressure safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasury yields decline to a five-month low. Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts also stand at 85.6% and back bullish sentiment further, as central resistance at $2,917 and support at $2,866 will indicate the next move. • Tariffs imposed by the U.S., Canada, and China continue to fuel the uncertainty in markets and raise the safe-haven demand for gold. • Gold rose more than 1% and trades at about $2,910 on concerns of trade war and weakening U.S. Treasury yields. • The U.S. 10-year yield reached a five-month low at 4.11%, contributing to gold’s appeal as an alternative asset. • Market odds for a Fed rate cut within six months are up to 85.6%, further supporting gold’s bullishness. • Gold is encountering resistance at $2,917, with the record high of $2,956 the next big level to respect. • Support at $2,866 is vital to stave off more losses, with further support available at $2,842 in case selling rises. • Congested price bars signal uncertainty on the part of investors, while safe-haven demand is due to keep gold propped up against further backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Gold continues to be in focus for investors amid rising trade tensions between the U.S., China, and Canada. The announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to charge tariffs on Chinese and Canadian imports has sparked reprisals with Canada slapping a 25% tariff on American goods and China imposing 15% tariffs on major agriculture products. This back-and-forth trade war has spurred economic volatility, causing safe-haven asset demand to increase, such as gold. With global markets responding to the latest disagreements, investors are keeping an eye on further policy actions and economic reactions from the involved countries. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Also, concerns regarding the general economic outlook still shape investor mood. The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure to reduce interest rates, with market expectations for a rate cut by June reaching 85.6%. Geopolitical news, such as the U.S. temporarily suspending military aid to Ukraine, also contributes to the uncertainty. As inflation worries linger and economic growth continues to slow, the position of gold as a hedge against uncertainty will continue to be strong, rendering it an attractive asset for conservative investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold continues to exhibit good momentum, building on its recent gains as market uncertainty persists. The price is currently consolidating in a tight band, demonstrating indecision from investors following last week’s volatility. The intraday Pivot Point of $2,879 is acting as the main support, with resistance at $2,917 being the next level to monitor for further upward movement. If the bullish momentum continues, a possible test of the all-time high of $2,956 is still on the cards. On the bearish side, $2,866 is a very important support level, corresponding to earlier lows. A fall below this level may result in additional selling pressure towards $2,842. Investors need to keep a close eye on these levels, as any breakout would determine the direction of the next trend. FORECAST The bullish momentum in gold is still intact as global uncertainties push investors towards safe-haven assets. If trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and China continue to escalate, gold prices may witness a further rally. A breakout above the crucial resistance at $2,917 could drive prices towards the all-time high of $2,956. Moreover, growing hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June can also add to gold’s upside, as lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar weaker and hence gold more desirable. If inflation fears continue along with slowing growth, gold could stay in favor, and upward pressure on prices would persist. Conversely, any easing of trade tensions or diplomatic breakthroughs can dampen gold’s safe-haven appeal. A rising U.S. dollar, potentially driven by more positive economic readings or lowered expectations for interest-rate cuts, would also serve as a potential damper for gold prices. In the event that selling builds momentum, falling through the significant support at $2,866 might lead to more losses to $2,842. More profound correction can

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Target 1.2724 In Continuing Uptrend

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  • March 4, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair trades below the 1.2700 level at a three-month high, looking bullish in an uptrend channel formation. The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating firm momentum, while the pair stays above the nine- and 14-day EMAs to confirm short-term strength. Near-term resistance is at 1.2724, with further potential gains to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 figure. On the negative side, early support is at 1.2639, then 1.2613, with a break below having the potential to undermine the bullish bias and leave the pair vulnerable to 1.2560. A firm fall below the channel could take losses down to the three-month low of 1.2249. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD has immediate resistance at 1.2724, with a possible breakout taking it to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 level in the near term. • The nine-day EMA at 1.2639 is also main support, with a breakdown below potentially undermining bullish momentum and sending the pair to 1.2560. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum and backing the expectation of further strength in the near term. • A clean break below the rising channel would change the trend bearish, leaving the pair vulnerable to the crucial support level of 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues in a bullish trend, trading below the 1.2700 level with the important resistance of 1.2724 in sight. A clean break above this level may take the pair to 1.2780 and the psychological level of 1.2800. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating ongoing bullish pressure, and the pair trading above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, affirming short-term strength. On the negative side, the nearest support is at 1.2639, with support at 1.2613 afterwards. A fall below these levels might undercut bullish sentiment, leaving a fall to 1.2560 or even the three-month low at 1.2249 if the rising channel breaks. GBP/USD is still bullish, trading below 1.2700 with major resistance at 1.2724. A breakout would take it to 1.2780, while support at 1.2639 would cap downside risks. A fall below the rising channel would undermine momentum, revealing 1.2249. • A breakout above this level would take GBP/USD to 1.2780 and the psychological resistance at 1.2800. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting ongoing strength and a bullish bias in the market. • These levels (nine- and 14-day EMAs) serve as integral support levels, holding off an anticipated downside action. • GBP/USD continues to trade within an upward-moving channel, emphasizing a bullish outlook in the near term. • A breach through the lower trend line of the upward-moving channel at 1.2560 may erode the bullish action. • Depending on bullish strength being maintained, GBP/USD may test 1.2800, which is a serious psychological resistance level. • A sharp fall below the 1.2560 support area may leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, testing the three-month low at 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues to attract attention from investors, mirroring the economic interactions between the US and the UK. Traders keenly monitor economic data releases, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical events impacting the pair’s price action. Other factors, including inflation reports, jobs reports, and monetary policies, also influence the market’s sentiment. Moreover, more general global events, such as trade policy and economic projections, also influence demand swings for both the British pound and the US dollar. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Risk appetite also influences the sentiment of the GBP/USD market, with currency flows affected. In periods of economic stability, traders tend to opt for riskier assets at the expense of the pound, while uncertainty tends to fuel demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven. The dynamic interaction between Bank of England monetary policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies is still the principal driver that guides long-term currency pair trends. Additionally, economic performance, political events, and trade relations in both nations will continue to influence market expectations, making GBP/USD an important pair to follow for forex traders and investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues in an uptrend channel, pointing to ongoing bull run. Price action continues to be above pivotal moving averages, supporting short-term strength, and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 showing consistent buying pressure. Resistance is seen at 1.2724, with a possible breakout setting the stage for further advances to 1.2780 and the psychological mark of 1.2800. On the other hand, near-term support is at 1.2639, with a break below having the potential to test the lower limit around 1.2560. A firm move below this level has the potential to change momentum in the bears’ favor, challenging the overall uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD might see its further ascend, particularly in case that momentum remains healthy on the bull and the pair gets past the resistance level of 1.2724.  A breach could open up even more strength all the way towards the subsequent level of resistance of 1.2780 before the psychologically charged level of 1.2800. Encouraging economic news in the UK, like better GDP growth, falling inflation, or a hawkish policy from the Bank of England, may continue to underpin the strength of the pound. A weaker US dollar, propelled by dovish messages from the Federal Reserve or risk-on flows in international markets, may also add to bullish pressure in the pair. To the downside, GBP/USD has major support at 1.2639, and a move below it will perhaps indicate the loss of momentum, triggering a fall to 1.2560. In case bearish pressure builds and the pair moves below the rising channel, a further fall is possible, with the next strong support being at 1.2500. Factors that may trigger a bearish perspective are dismal UK economic data, a tougher Federal Reserve line on interest rates, or heightened risk aversion in international markets that boosts demand for the US dollar. A more severe correction may leave GBP/USD open to additional downward risks, and potentially challenge the three-month trough of 1.2249 if selling pressures continue.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Steady at $31.50 as Rising Trade War Uncertainty Takes Grip

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  • March 4, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) remains steady at $31.50, supported by safe-haven buying as world trade tensions grow. The White House announced President Trump signed the order increasing the tariffs on imports from China to 20%, and Canada replied with retaliatory 25% tariffs on imports from the United States. China has also pledged countermeasures, further pushing market uncertainty. Mixed U.S. economic reports, such as a modest fall in ISM Manufacturing PMI but a better-than-expected S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, contribute to the market’s conservative sentiment. Investors are now eyeing future U.S. employment reports, which may affect the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing U.S.-China trade tensions and Canada’s retaliatory tariffs may fuel safe-haven demand, affecting silver prices in the short term. • Investors look for U.S. employment figures, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, to gauge possible Fed interest rate actions. • Indecisive U.S. manufacturing reports create economic uncertainty, making future releases pivotal in influencing silver price directions and investor attitude. • China’s commitment to countermeasures against U.S. tariffs will introduce volatility, keeping silver an attractive hedge against economic uncertainty. Silver prices are underpinned above $31.50 as rising tensions in trade among the U.S., China, and Canada spur safe-haven buying. The move by President Trump to hike tariffs on imports from China to 20% has prompted countermeasures, with Canada saying it will slap a 25% tariff on U.S. products and China promising countermeasures. In the meantime, conflicting U.S. factory data contributes to market uncertainty, keeping investors on guard before the important employment reports, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls. These economic releases will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which will have an impact on silver’s direction in the next sessions. Silver prices hold firm above $31.50 as mounting trade tensions drive safe-haven demand. Tariffs on China by the U.S. and Canadian retaliatory actions introduce uncertainty, while future U.S. jobs reports may determine the Federal Reserve’s policy and silver’s price action. • Silver holds firm above $31.50 as investors flee to safe havens amidst growing global trade tensions. • Trump’s 20% levy on Chinese imports has induced China to pledge countermeasures, introducing market uncertainty. • Canada intends to place a 25% tariff on imports from the U.S. totaling C$30 billion should U.S. tariffs be imposed. • Heightening trade tensions contribute to volatility, and thus silver is becoming an appealing hedge against economic turbulence. • Though ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened, S&P Global’s final February PMI topped forecasts, heightening uncertainty. • ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls are awaited for hints at potential Fed interest rate action. • Silver’s path will be contingent on developments in trade tensions and important economic indicators impacting investor sentiment. Silver remains strong in demand as global trade tensions intensify, further solidifying its position as a safe-haven asset of choice. With the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods and Canada announcing retaliatory actions, investors are looking to silver more than ever as a hedge against economic uncertainty. The constant trade wars are not only affecting diplomatic relations but also creating supply chain and global economic stability fears. Silver is thus still a safe haven for investors looking for stability in times of uncertainty. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Outside of trade policy, economic statistics and geopolitical uncertainty have a significant influence on sentiment in the market. The U.S. employment figures are under close watch by investors, as the direction of labor market trends tends to inform overall economic decisions. China’s willingness to pursue countermeasures to U.S. tariffs provides another source of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, silver’s function as a store of value is increasingly prominent, further solidifying its status as a preferred asset during times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) is holding steady above $31.50, with good support at this price as buyers remain in control. The price is holding above important moving averages, a sign of continued bullish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still close to neutral levels, indicating scope for additional gains without underlying overbought levels. Also, silver is probing a resistance area near $31.70, and a strong breakout above this level can pave the way for additional advances. But if it fails to maintain current support levels, it can lead to a consolidation period before the next direction. Price action is closely monitored by traders for confirmation of the next direction. FORECAST Silver prices may extend the upside further if global trade tensions continue to mount, forcing investors into safe-haven assets. A convincing breakout above the $31.70 resistance level can lead to further advances, which can even challenge the $32.00 mark in the near term. If coming U.S. economic reports, such as the ADP and Nonfarm Payrolls, point to economic weakness, hopes of a more dovish Federal Reserve will further lend support to silver prices. Further, any other retaliatory Chinese or Canadian trade action will increase uncertainty, lending more bullish value to silver. Downside risk will come if trade tensions lessen or economic data hints at a strong U.S. labor market, causing selling in silver due to improving risk appetite. A dip below the key support at $31.50 may initiate a correction, potentially driving prices towards the $31.20 or even $31.00 levels. Moreover, a firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields may pressure silver, as investors redirect attention towards interest-bearing assets. In the short term, silver’s direction will be influenced by geopolitical events and economic indicators that influence market sentiment.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rises on Hopes of Ukraine Peace, but ECB Policy and Tariff War Risks Lurk

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  • March 4, 2025
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EUR/USD keeps rising towards the 1.0500 level on hopes of a possible Ukraine peace agreement. Yet, the pair’s rally is capped by increased global risk aversion amid heightened trade tensions. US President Donald Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, and Canada and China have responded with retaliatory actions. Moreover, the US has suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, further adding to geopolitical volatility. In the meantime, the Euro can expect additional pressure before the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, when a widely anticipated rate cut can weigh on the currency. Sidelined US economic data have also added to market uncertainty, leaving traders hesitant to bet on the near-term outlook of the Euro. KEY LOOKOUTS • Optimism regarding a formal Ukraine peace plan is supportive of EUR/USD, but uncertainty prevails as the US suspends military aid to Ukraine. • Trump’s China tariff increases and possible retaliatory actions by Canada and China may spark risk aversion, capping the Euro’s upside potential. • The European Central Bank will likely reduce rates again, which may put pressure on the Euro and affect EUR/USD’s short-term direction. • Disagreement on US manufacturing data contributes to market uncertainty, making investors wary of the Federal Reserve’s next step and dollar strength. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight as hopes for a Ukraine peace agreement offer support, but rising global trade tensions and policy risks cap further advances. The US has suspended all military aid to Ukraine at the direction of President Trump, contributing to geopolitical uncertainty. While Trump’s move to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 20% has prompted threat of retaliation from Canada and China, it is adding to risk aversion. The European Central Bank meeting also looms as a major trigger, with an expected rate cut that can depreciate the Euro. Also, conflicting US economic data have put investors in confusion regarding the direction of Federal Reserve policy, which is keeping the currency market nervous. EUR/USD rises on optimism for Ukraine peace agreement but tests resistance as global risk aversion increases. A further escalation in US-China trade tensions and the anticipated ECB rate cut may act as a dampener for the Euro. Heterogeneous US economic data brings more uncertainty to the table, maintaining market mood cautious. • The pair extends its rally at 1.0500 with support from hope for a Ukraine peace agreement. • The US suspended all military aid to Ukraine, further fuelling world tensions and market conservatism. • Trump increases tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, inviting retaliatory threats from Canada and China, elevating risk aversion. • The European Central Bank will likely lower the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps, possibly putting pressure on the Euro. • Conflicting US economic indicators, such as a softer ISM Manufacturing PMI and a firmer S&P Global PMI, contribute to investor uncertainty. • Risk sentiment and policy issues may limit further gains in the Euro despite recent rallies. • Ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path keeps traders on their toes, influencing EUR/USD price action. Global markets are in suspense as geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts define the economic environment. Hopes for a formal Ukraine peace agreement have arisen, with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy negotiating a plan to be presented to the US. However, doubts intensified as the US government suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, fuelling fears over long-term stability in the region. Meanwhile, trade tensions between economies increased, with President Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods, and China strongly opposing, with possible retaliatory measures from Canada. These events underscore the increasing polarization in global relations, impacting investor sentiment and economic policies across the globe. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the economic side, policymakers and market players are keeping a close eye on the European Central Bank’s next meeting, where a possible rate cut is anticipated. Such monetary policy has a significant impact on financial planning and world economic growth. In the US, meanwhile, conflicting economic data have contributed to the uncertainty, with varying indicators of manufacturing performance capturing the difficulty of sustaining stability in a volatile environment. While global economies ride this ride, companies and governments have to be flexible to changing economic circumstances and global policy measures. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is stuck around 1.0500, with risk aversion cappping its upside. The pair has been on the verge of consolidation, with market players keenly observing key resistances and supports for signs of a breakout. Moving averages are bearish, while momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD are indicative of indecisiveness in market sentiment. A break above near-term resistance could set the stage for additional gains, while inability to maintain key support levels could prompt a pullback. Technical signals overall point to EUR/USD being in a precarious area, waiting for a more robust catalyst for directional momentum. FORECAST EUR/USD may rise further if sentiment towards the Ukraine peace agreement gets a boost, which would enhance market risk appetite. A diplomatic settlement would alleviate geopolitical risk, potentially strengthening the Euro. Also, if economic statistics from the Eurozone are stronger than anticipated or the European Central Bank (ECB) is less dovish than anticipated, the pair could get further backing. Any US dollar weakness caused by changing Federal Reserve policy or weaker economic data would also provide space for a move upwards. A move above major resistance levels might drive the pair to higher price ranges in the near future. EUR/USD is subject to several downside threats that would limit its momentum. Increased risk aversion as a result of rising trade tensions—like Trump’s raised tariffs on China and possible retaliations from Canada and China—may support the US dollar, which would bear down on the Euro. If the ECB acts on a highly anticipated rate cut or hints at more monetary easing, the Euro could fall as well. Any better-than-expected US economic data would be supportive of the dollar’s advance, which would see the pair fall. A breakdown of crucial support levels could lead to more losses, leaving

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Drops 4% This Week on Strong US Dollar and Market Uncertainty

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  • March 1, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) saw a sharp fall of almost 4% this week, falling to $31.13 as the rally in the US Dollar and profit taking weighed on the market. Even as silver tried to remain above $33.00, it saw intense selling pressure, leading to a pullback towards major support levels. The 100-day SMA at $31.20 was violated, leaving the 50-day SMA at $30.89 as the following pivotal level. In case of additional bearish momentum, silver may test the 200-day SMA at $30.47 and the low in January of $29.70. Since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates increasing bearish momentum, market participants remain vigilant for possible additional losses. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver is challenging the 50-day SMA level of $30.89; a fall below may expose the 200-day SMA level of $30.47 and $29.70. • Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows increasing selling pressure, pointing towards further downward risk if silver is unable to regain key levels of resistance. • A resilient US Dollar keeps silver prices suppressed, with market sentiment changing with economic uncertainty and possible recession risks. • Should silver stabilize at levels above $31.00 and breach the $33.00 level, buyers could take the upper hand, taking prices towards the resistance at $34.00. Silver (XAG/USD) is pressured following a near 4% weekly decline, with key support levels under focus. The 50-day SMA level of $30.89 is an important level to watch; a breach below here may lead to more losses towards the 200-day SMA level of $30.47 and the January low at $29.70. The risk-off environment and the appreciating US Dollar are driving bearish pressure, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Yet, if silver can sustain itself above $31.00 and push through $33.00, a possible reversal to $34.00 may be imminent. Traders need to watch closely for market sentiment and upcoming economic reports for further guidance. Silver (XAG/USD) faces strong selling pressure, dropping nearly 4% weekly as the US Dollar strengthens. Key support at $30.89 remains critical for future price action. • XAG/USD declined nearly 4% as the strengthening US Dollar and profit booking weighed on prices. • The 50-day SMA is a crucial support level; a break below could lead to further declines toward $30.47 and $29.70. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) warns of building selling pressure, suggesting the potential for prolonged downside movement. • The strong USD remains bearing down on silver prices, with investors shunning the metal and rushing to safe-haven assets due to economic worries. • Should silver stabilize above $31.00 and rise through $33.00, then a bullish move toward $34.00 is feasible. • Coming economic data and risk sentiment will go a long way in dictating the next direction for silver. • Uncertainty in global markets and technical levels indicate that silver’s direction is based on whether buyers will be able to take control. Silver is still a vital asset in the world financial market, which is controlled by economic trends, investor attitude, and wider macroeconomic factors. The precious metal has been considered both an industrial commodity and a store of value for long, making investors seek stability amid economic uncertainties. Inflation trends, central bank actions, and geopolitical events all contribute to silver’s demand significantly. The use of the metal in industries like electronics, solar panels, and medical uses keeps it relevant for purposes other than investment alone. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Market trends and investor sentiment globally continue to influence silver’s performance. During economic uncertainties, silver tends to experience added interest as a inflation hedge and currency volatility hedge. On the other hand, its industrial demand depends on economic growth and technological innovation. As the world continues to shift toward energy transition and industrial uses, silver’s function continues to be dynamic, and it is something that investors and manufacturers watch closely. With changing market conditions, the role of silver in investment portfolios and industrial applications is likely to continue. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver points to significant support and resistance levels being keenly monitored by traders. The metal has just seen selling pressure after it could not hold up above $33.00, resulting in a test of lower support levels. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.89 is a key level, with a break below opening up further potential downside to the 200-day SMA at $30.47. Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests increasing bearish momentum, implying that bears are currently dominant. Yet if silver holds higher above $31.00 and bulls turn back up, a possible reversal back to $33.00 and higher may be underway. Traders must monitor price action and major moving averages to determine future trends. FORECAST Silver’s bullish forecast hinges on major factors including renewed investor appetite, US Dollar weakening, and strengthening industrial demand. If silver can stay above the $31.00 level and break above the $33.00 resistance level, it may regain its upward momentum. A breakout above this level could trigger additional buying, driving prices towards $34.00 and beyond. Moreover, if inflation fears return or central banks turn dovish, silver might gain as a hedge against economic uncertainty. Solid demand from the renewable energy and technology industries could also fuel long-term price appreciation. Silver is still at risk of a stronger US Dollar and changing market sentiment on the downside. If prices cannot hold above key levels of support, especially the 50-day SMA of $30.89, additional losses will be possible. A breach through this level will expose silver to more losses, testing the 200-day SMA of $30.47 and potentially the January low of $29.70. Slowing economies or slackening industrial demand will add more pressure to the performance of silver. Further, if risk appetite grows and investors move to equities or other high-yielding assets, silver can face protracted selling pressure.

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Crypto Ethereum

Bearish Momentum Takes Over: Will Ethereum Recover from the $2,200 Support?

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  • March 1, 2025
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Ethereum (ETH) is experiencing great bearish pressure as whales and long-term holders dump their coins, leading to a massive increase in exchange reserves. With more than 620K ETH dumped in the last five days and exchange deposits well above 500K ETH, bearish pressure has forced prices to battle around the $2,200 support level. Technical indicators such as the RSI and MACD validate strong bearish momentum, with a possible fall to $1,500 if selling continues. The oversold Stochastic Oscillator, however, suggests a possible bounce if ETH can retake key resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • More than 620K ETH sold in five days, mounting bearish pressure and indicating possible further drops in Ethereum’s price. • More than 500K ETH sent to exchanges after February 21, indicating increased selling pressure and a potential test of lower support levels. • RSI and MACD still below neutral, showing ongoing bearish momentum, while the oversold Stochastic Oscillator suggests a potential short-term bounce. • Ethereum struggles at $2,200; inability to hold could send prices lower to $1,500, while a close above $2,850 would negate bearish trends. Ethereum (ETH) comes under increased bear pressure as whales and long-term holders dump enormous quantities of ETH, increasing exchange reserves by more than 500K ETH. Fighting to maintain the $2,200 level of support, ETH stands at the risk of declining to $1,500 in case selling prevails. Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD show strong bear momentum, but an oversold Stochastic Oscillator indicates the likelihood of a short-term recovery. A break above $2,850 would change sentiment to bullish, but for now, traders take a cautious stance with continued sell-offs and uncertainty in the markets. Ethereum finds it difficult to defend the $2,200 level as whales and long-term holders increase selling pressure. A descent to $1,500 cannot be ruled out unless bullish strength returns. • More than 620K ETH sold in five days, which increases bearish momentum and pushes prices towards support levels. • More than 500K ETH sent to exchanges after February 21, reflecting heightened selling pressure and market wariness. • Ethereum struggles to maintain this key support level, with threats of a possible fall to $1,500 if bearish pressure persists. • ETH experienced $231.69 million in 24-hour futures liquidations, with long positions suffering heavy losses. • RSI and MACD still below neutral, affirming strong selling pressure and absence of near-term bullish signals. • Stochastic Oscillator in oversold region indicates potential recovery if market mood changes. • A weekly close above the level may negate the bearish scenario and revive bullish forces for Ethereum. Ethereum is experiencing a considerable change in market dynamics since massive investors such as whales and long-term holders are subjecting it to heavy selling pressure. This trend is responsible for the significant increase in exchange reserves, which means more ETH is being transferred to places where it is traded or liquidated. More institutional and retail investors participating in selling is also an indication that there is a shift in sentiment, with many deciding to lock in profits or reduce potential losses. These kinds of movements show the changing face of Ethereum’s market, with investor psychology and external economic pressures at play. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Amid these shifts, the Ethereum ecosystem continues to evolve, with ongoing developments aimed at strengthening its network and community engagement. The Ethereum Foundation recently introduced the Silviculture Society, an initiative designed to amplify the voices of builders and core community members. This experimental effort reflects Ethereum’s commitment to decentralization and innovation, ensuring that key contributors have a say in its future direction. As the market goes through these changes, Ethereum is still at the forefront of blockchain innovation and continues to be relevant in this increasingly competitive market. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical indicators of Ethereum point to the continuation of bearish momentum as price action fails to sustain key support levels. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is still below its neutral level, reflecting ongoing selling pressure, while the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicates a lack of strong bullish momentum. Besides that, the rise in dormant circulation and falling coin age mean that long-term holders are redeploying their holdings, which contributes to market volatility. But the Stochastic Oscillator is well into the oversold territory and indicates a possible near-term rally if the buying recovers. A convincing close above $2,850 could quash the bearish scenario and inspire renewed optimism among bulls. FORECAST Ethereum remains poised for a recovery if sentiment in the market switches in favor of the buyers. The oversold nature as determined by the Stochastic Oscillator also means that ETH may experience short-term recovery as sellers seek to buy in. Moreover, any positive macroeconomic news, clarifications in regulations, or institutional activity could propel renewed upward momentum. If Ethereum can break through significant resistance levels, especially the $2,850 level, it may resume its upward trend and move towards new highs. Greater adoption of Ethereum’s blockchain technology and innovation in the ecosystem, including scalability enhancements and institutional deals, may also support long-term growth. To the downside, Ethereum is still at risk of further drops if whales and long-term holders continue to apply selling pressure. The increase in exchange reserves indicates that additional ETH is being placed for possible liquidation, which can dampen upward momentum. If Ethereum cannot maintain the $2,200 support level, it can continue to lose, potentially testing the $1,500 level. Overall economic conditions, such as inflation fears and worldwide market uncertainty, may also influence investor sentiment, causing extended bearishness. Also, any hiccups or delays in Ethereum’s network updates or regulatory issues would put more downward pressure on the market.

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