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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Bats Below 0.5750 Amid Market Jitters and Significant Economic Events

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  • March 7, 2025
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NZD/USD continues to lose steam below 0.5750 amid market jitters in advance of China’s trade balance release and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) announcement. The pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading at around 0.5730 in the Asian session. Meanwhile, international trade events, such as Trump’s exemption of Mexican and Canadian imports from threatened tariffs and Canada’s slowdown in retaliatory tariffs, are still influencing market sentiment. The US labor market remains strong, with initial unemployment claims falling and NFP to increase to 160K in February. Besides that, China’s promise of more stimulus and a dovish move from the People’s Bank of China have assisted somewhat in support of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). But fears surrounding US policy uncertainty and possible Fed rate actions deter the strength of the US Dollar, placing the NZD/USD currency pair in a subdued trading band. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s trade balance report is followed closely by traders, which has the potential to affect NZD sentiment considering that China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. • The anticipated increase in US job additions to 160K has the potential to affect Federal Reserve policy expectations and influence the strength of USD against NZD. • Market sentiment is affected by Trump’s tariff exemptions and Canada’s postponed retaliatory tariffs, influencing risk appetite and currency fluctuations in the forex market. • Promises of additional stimulus and possible rate reductions by the People’s Bank of China would help support the NZD, offsetting overall market uncertainties. NZD/USD continues to be pressured as investors wait for major economic releases, including the release of China’s trade balance and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Market mood is influenced by continued global trade news, such as Trump’s tariff exemptions on Mexico and Canada and Canada’s postponement of retaliatory tariffs. In the meantime, hopes of more stimulus from the government of China and the dovishness of the People’s Bank of China lend some strength to the New Zealand Dollar. But US policy uncertainty fears and the prospect of the Federal Reserve responding to slowing economy and inflation keep the US Dollar down, keeping the NZD/USD currency pair in a cautious range. NZD/USD is trading with caution below 0.5750 as the market looks to China’s trade data and the US NFP report. Global trade events and China’s stimulus plans drive sentiment, with uncertainty over Fed policy holding back the USD. • The pair is under selling pressure ahead of major economic data releases, as market caution prevails. • Investors are extremely careful watching China’s trade data, which has the potential to affect NZD due to China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. • The employment market is likely to improve, with payroll additions climbing to 160K, having a bearing on USD strength and Fed policy expectations. • Exemptions of Mexican and Canadian imports from potential tariffs under the USMCA affect global trade sentiment and risk appetite. • Canada delays its second round of tariffs on US goods until April 2, lowering near-term trade tensions. • Pledges of further economic stimulus by Chinese officials help support NZD with concern over global economic growth. • Expectations in the market move towards possible action by the Fed to curb economic slowdown, influencing movement in USD in the forex market. The market scene is still influenced by global economic events and policy measures, shaping investor perception and currency movement. Ahead of the release of China’s trade balance figures, market players are watching closely for its possible implications on international trade and economic expansion. With China being New Zealand’s biggest trading partner, any change in the dynamics of trade may have spillover effects on the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the United States’ performance in its labor market is also being eyed, with the next Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) due to provide some clues about trends in the employment market and the overall stability of the economy. These events reflect the interlinkages between economies around the world and why such economic indicators need to be closely tracked. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Finally, policy announcements from major economies also have a big impact on market sentiment. The United States’ recent waiver of Mexican and Canadian products from threatened tariffs under the USMCA lightens trade tensions, while Canada’s hesitation on retaliatory tariffs adds to a stable trade atmosphere. In the meantime, China’s agreement to further stimulus measures indicates an activist approach toward maintaining economic growth, supporting confidence in its market policies. While central banks and governments deal with these economic woes, their actions will keep driving financial markets, business plans, and global trade relationships. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is in a cautious range, unable to build steam above significant resistance levels. The pair recently put an end to its losing streak near 0.5730 but has resistance at the 0.5750 level. A continued break above this level may pave the way for additional upside, while support on the downside is seen around 0.5700. Moving averages reflect a bearish to neutral bias, with sellers in control unless there is a breakout. Furthermore, momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD reflect a lack of strong bullish conviction, leaving the pair susceptible to additional consolidation in the near term. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience a rise, particularly if China’s trade balance figures are better than expected or if additional stimulus is introduced. A robust US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report would also enhance risk appetite, thereby indirectly favoring commodity-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. Technically, a move above the 0.5750 resistance level may pave the way for additional gains, with the next stop being around 0.5780–0.5800. A softer US Dollar, fueled by speculation of Federal Reserve policy changes, would further enhance the pair’s bullish momentum. To the downside, NZD/USD is exposed to bearish forces in case of disappointing Chinese economic statistics, which would trigger concerns of decelerating worldwide trade. An upbeat US NFP reading would further solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias, firming up the US Dollar and exerting bearish pressure on NZD/USD. If the pair cannot

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Forecast: Profit-Taking, Fed Rate Cut Speculation, and Market Trends With US Tariff Delays

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  • March 6, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) are seeing marginal profit-taking around $2,900 as US tariff tensions relax with a tariff delay on the importation of cars from Mexico and Canada. Despite this reprieve, tit-for-tat tariffs due in April still fuel safe-haven demand for the metal. While that is happening, investors are betting more on multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts as US economic indicators worsen, heightening recession fears. The European Central Bank’s interest rate decision and an important EU defense spending meeting contribute to the uncertainty in global markets. Technically, gold is still a “buy on dips,” with crucial support at $2,900 and resistance around the all-time high of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • The postponement of US car import duties on Mexico and Canada provides relief in the short term, but April reciprocal tariffs still favor gold demand. • Market participants are factoring in several Fed rate cuts as US economic data deteriorates, making gold more attractive as a hedge against economic uncertainty. • The ECB will reduce interest rates by 25 bps, affecting market sentiment and gold prices along with wider economic policy changes. • Gold is bullish with major support at $2,900 and resistance at $2,956. Investors are eagerly observing price movement for breakouts or corrections. Gold prices are still an investment focus area with market trends adjusting to ease in US tariff tensions and swelling Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations. Though the pause on US auto import tariffs to Mexico and Canada is a near-term relief, retaliatory tariffs to be activated in April persist to drive safe-haven appetite. The multiple potential rate reductions by the Federal Reserve due to declining US economic indicators further heighten gold’s attraction. In the meantime, the expected 25 bps rate cut from the European Central Bank and a pivotal EU defense spending summit contribute to market volatility. With gold at around $2,900, pivotal technical levels such as support at $2,900 and resistance around $2,956 will be important for traders to monitor in this uncertain environment. Gold prices remain at $2,900 as US tariff delays give temporary relief, but future reciprocal tariffs maintain safe-haven demand. Traders expect several Fed rate cuts with deteriorating US economic data, while the ECB’s anticipated policy change contributes to market uncertainty. • The postponement of US car import tariffs on Mexico and Canada gives temporary relief, but April reciprocal tariffs maintain gold demand. • Despite some profit-taking, gold is still a sought-after hedge against economic and geopolitical risks. • Deteriorating US economic data have ignited speculation of a series of Fed rate cuts, making gold more attractive. • The ECB will likely lower rates by 25 bps, which could drive global market sentiment and gold prices. • Traders are reshuffling positions as bond markets already price in easing monetary policies. • The key support is at $2,900, and resistance around the all-time high of $2,956 will decide the direction for gold. • Global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks may fuel swift price actions in gold. Gold continues to be a focus area in international markets as economic and geopolitical issues influence investor mood. The delay in US car import tariffs on Mexico and Canada has provided short-term relief, but the upcoming reciprocal tariffs in April keep uncertainty alive. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s stance as deteriorating US economic data strengthens the case for multiple interest rate cuts. As fears of economic slowdown abound, gold remains a go-to safe-haven asset, drawing investors seeking security in the face of uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the global level, the European Central Bank’s upcoming interest rate decision is another layer of market attention, as policymakers balance economic threats and possible stimulus. Moreover, general geopolitical developments, such as talks on European Union defense expenditures and ongoing trade policies, fuel investor hesitancy. With central banks and governments navigating these economic challenges, gold’s use as a hedge against uncertainty is firm, as institutional and retail investors continue to attract steady demand. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are sustaining a robust bullish bias, and important technical levels are guiding the market movements.The $2,900 level is an important psychological support point, stemming any further bearish pressure. If gold sustains above this area, it may draw fresh buying interest, and prices may be directed towards the next resistance levels. On the higher side, the first resistance is at $2,934, followed by an important hurdle at $2,950. A breakthrough above such levels may initiate the door to the retesting of the all-time high price level at $2,956. In the case of accelerating selling pressure, $2,879 might become support. Analysts continue watching out for momentum levels and sentiment signals in assessing what may next follow gold’s price direction. FORECAST  Market conditions uphold the bullish trend for gold amid the metal’s safe-haven image. With increasing anticipation of several Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued uncertainty in the global economy, gold may experience additional upside action. If investor attitude continues to be risk-averse and inflationary fears linger, gold might overcome significant resistance points, potentially surpassing its historic high of $2,956. Moreover, any surprise geopolitical tensions or central bank dovish policies might additionally fuel demand, pushing prices even higher in the months ahead. On the negative side, gold prices can experience intermittent corrections as a result of profit-taking and changing market sentiment. If US economic indicators indicate improvement or the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish, gold might suffer short-term pullbacks. Increased US dollar strength and higher bond yields can also pose headwinds, triggering dips to the $2,900 or even $2,879 support areas. Yet, until there is a dramatic change in international economic policies, every dip is likely to be perceived as a buying opportunity by long-term investors.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Firm in Face of German Debt Reforms and ECB Rate Decision: Market Analysis and Key Drivers

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  • March 6, 2025
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EUR/USD stays firm at the 1.0800 level as investors await the highly expected interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% on the cards. Market mood is influenced by Germany’s mooted 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which may affect inflation and economic growth. In the meantime, US President Trump’s temporary easing of car tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated fears of a trade war, with the result that the US Dollar has weakened. Soft US private jobs data have also raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June. Now, investors wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks and future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases to guide the markets further. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank is likely to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, impacting EUR/USD price action and investor sentiment. • Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and extended borrowing capacity may affect inflation expectations and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reduced trade tensions, but possible tariffs on German cars continue to be a major risk. • Soft US private hiring data have fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Fed, which makes the release of Friday’s NFP a highly market-moving event. EUR/USD continues to be a hot topic for traders as significant economic and policy events are played out. The ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% has the potential to influence future monetary policy, while Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In addition, President Trump of the US has temporarily softened auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which has softened trade tensions but leaves uncertainty over possible tariffs on German automobiles. Furthermore, disappointing US private employment data have also spurred hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and thus, coming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release will be a pivotal driver in establishing the direction of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0800 as the market looks to the ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate reduction and Christine Lagarde’s comments. Germany’s infrastructure fund and US trade policy contribute to the uncertainty, while soft US jobs data drives speculation of a June Fed rate cut. • The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, influencing EUR/USD action. • A planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and eased borrowing ceilings could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico softens trade tensions, but there is still uncertainty regarding possible tariffs on German cars. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day in a row, trading around 104.00, its lowest since four months ago. • Soft private sector employment growth has increased hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate reduction, impacting USD strength. • The pair is still robust above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI > 60, which means bullish momentum. • Market participants are monitoring the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report closely for more cues on the direction of Fed monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair remains steady as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid Germany’s proposed 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which aims to boost economic growth and could influence inflation in the Eurozone. Traders are eagerly waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision remarks for signals about future policy guidance and the overall economic landscape. Meanwhile, market sentiments are still under pressure due to fears of possible US tariffs on European products, especially German cars. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade actions and economic indicators continue to be major drivers of the forex market. US President Donald Trump’s temporary easing of automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated trade tensions, but uncertainty persists with possible tariffs on European goods. Separately, soft US private jobs data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Investors now await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for additional insight into the health of the US labor market. Any meaningful changes in economic statistics or monetary policy decisions made by the Fed or ECB can influence currency trends in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is well placed around the 1.0800 mark, demonstrating bullish sentiment on the charts. The pair has convincingly broken above the December 6 high of 1.0630, further strengthening an uptrend. It is still trading in excess of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0640, marking long-term robustness. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, a sign of extended buying pressure. On the down side, January 27’s high of 1.0533 is the critical support area, and the subsequent resistance point for Euro bulls is the November 6 high of 1.0937. In general, the technical perspective remains bullish for additional gains unless substantial bearish drivers arise. FORECAST EUR/USD might enjoy additional strength if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a prudent stance even with the anticipated rate reduction. If ECB President Christine Lagarde provides cues of a diminished rate-cut pace in the future or hints at optimism regarding Eurozone economic rebound, the Euro can pick up momentum. Also, Germany’s planned infrastructure fund would help boost investor sentiment about the region’s growth prospects. A softer US Dollar, based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, might also sustain EUR/USD’s rally. In case the pair convincingly crosses above the 1.0937 resistance mark, it would test higher levels in the future sessions. EUR/USD risks facing downward pressures if the ECB turns more dovish, reflecting further aggressive rate cuts. Any weakness in the Eurozone economics, notably in

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Set for Further Upside as BoJ Rate Hike Bets Build and US-Japan Rate Differentials Narrow

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  • March 6, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) reversed its intraday declines against a faltering US Dollar (USD) and is trading close to a multi-month high, fueled by increasing bets for further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Rising JGB yields and the decreasing rate differential between the US and Japan remain supportive of the JPY. Nevertheless, fears of US tariffs on Japan, rising US Treasury yields, and positive risk sentiment in the market could cap further appreciation of the safe-haven currency. While the technical indicators hint at a bearish consolidation in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders are keeping their eyes on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due to be released, which may provide more guidance. A fall below the 148.00 mark is still feasible, while the 150.00 level can act as resistance to any expected bounce. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market expects further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan to support the JPY and tighten the US-Japan yield differential. • Future Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other jobs numbers will impact USD sentiment and could guide the next significant move for USD/JPY. • Fears of additional tariffs by the US against Japanese imports could bring uncertainty and affect risk sentiment, which can influence JPY’s safe-haven demand. • USD/JPY is marked at important support around 148.00, with a breakdown lower to intensify downside potential, while resistance around 150.00 might limit rebounds. Japanese Yen (JPY) is still in the spotlight as investors watch for major economic and geopolitical drivers underpinning its direction versus the US Dollar (USD). Hopes for additional rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still underpin the JPY, reducing the US-Japan yield gap and making the currency stronger. In the meantime, the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is set to be a key driver, dictating USD sentiment and determining the next direction for the USD/JPY currency pair. Furthermore, fear of possible US tariffs on Japanese imports introduces a degree of uncertainty, which may affect risk appetite and propel demand for safe-haven currencies such as the JPY. Technically, the 148.00 support is still key, with a breach through it possibly fueling further losses, while the 150.00 psychological resistance could limit any near-term bounces. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to appreciate against the US Dollar (USD) on the back of BoJ rate hike expectations and a declining US-Japan yield gap. But future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures and fears of possible US tariffs on Japan could sway market sentiment. The major technical levels of 148.00 support and 150.00 resistance will decide the next big move in USD/JPY. • Increasing speculation of additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate increases underpins the JPY and reduces the US-Japan interest rate spread. • The JPY is at a multi-month high against the USD, erasing intraday losses as part of the broader USD weakness. • The coming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release and other jobs data will be pivotal in guiding the direction of the USD/JPY pair. • Concerns that the US is going to impose additional tariffs on Japan introduce uncertainty and could influence market sentiment. • Higher Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and declining US Treasury yields make JPY stronger against the USD. • As much as JPY gains on safe-haven demand, rising US bond yields and positive risk tone could keep further gains in check. • USD/JPY has significant support at 148.00, while resistance around 150.00 can cap potential rallies, setting the stage for the next big move. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to benefit from increasing hopes that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to hike interest rates. The change in monetary policy is a testiment to Japan’s changing economic terrain, where economic stability and inflationary pressures have become central concerns. The increase in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields also indicates a shift away from the nation’s historically ultra-loose monetary policy. Consequently, investors are becoming more confident in the JPY as a solid alternative during times of global economic uncertainty. Moreover, Japan’s economic resilience and government policies to maintain growth continue to support market sentiment towards the Yen. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical and trade-related issues continue to be significant determinants of market conditions. The recent talks about the possibility of US tariffs on imports from Japan have generated wary mood, given that trade policy can have a broader impact on economic relations between the two countries. Market participants are keeping a close eye on events, as a change in trade relationships may affect Japan’s export-oriented economy. In the meantime, the global financial market is keenly watching major economic indicators, especially in the US, where employment figures and fiscal policies might have an impact on wider currency movements. During these events, the JPY continues to be a key factor in the forex market, a reflection of Japan’s economic prowess and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair has been consolidating in a familiar range after a sharp drop from its yearly high around 159.00. The present price action implies a bearish consolidation phase, with momentum indicators on the daily chart remaining in negative ground but not yet triggering oversold readings. This suggests that the downtrend is likely to persist, with major support at the 148.00 level, which, if broken, could speed further losses toward the 147.35 zone. On the positive side, the 149.50-150.00 area represents instant resistance, and any movement above this can possibly lead to a short-covering rally. But overall market sentiment and technical factors will then dominate the move in the next big move in the pair. FORECAST If sentiment is changed in the direction of the US Dollar (USD), then the USD/JPY can make a northward movement if there are any positive surprises on US economic numbers, like Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), in the near future. A good jobs report would underpin the anticipation that the Federal Reserve will remain prudent in the rate-cut stance, favoring the USD. Moreover, if the world risk appetite gets better and equity markets continue

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Bullish Bias Despite Retreat – Levels to Note

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  • March 6, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a marginal negative bias at the upper mid-$32.00s, ending a three-day winning run but still enjoying a bullish outlook. Even after the retreat, the technicals remain bullish-friendly, with the oscillators developing positive momentum and the metal continuing to hold over important support levels. A push towards $33.00 and higher is still on the cards, with resistance around $33.40 and further goals at $34.00 and $35.00. But a strong break below $32.25 might lead to a fall to the $31.00-$30.80 area, tilting momentum in favor of bearish traders. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver is still above crucial support levels despite a small fall, with technicals pointing to possible gains to $33.40, $34.00, and $35.00. • The following major roadblocks are at $33.60-$33.70, with the breakout opening the doors for silver to challenge the key $34.50-$35.00 area. • A fall below $32.25 could prompt further losses towards $31.80 and $31.00, which might shift things in favor of bearish traders. • The 100-day EMA around $31.10-$31.00 remains a critical level; a fall below here could lead to more selling pressure and a bearish reversal. Silver (XAG/USD) remains in a bullish trend even after a small pullback, with technical indicators indicating possible upward movement. The most important resistance levels to look out for are $33.40, then $33.60-$33.70, with a breakout leading the way to $34.00 and $35.00. On the bearish side, support at $32.25 is important, with a sustained fall below this triggering further losses towards $31.80 and the 100-day EMA at $31.00. Overall, short-term volatility continues, but the bigger picture remains bullish for buyers unless silver declines below major support levels, changing the trend in favor of bearish traders. Silver (XAG/USD) is still bullish despite a minor correction, with major resistance at $33.40 and $34.00. A fall below $32.25 may lead to further losses, but the 100-day EMA around $31.00 is still an important support. • Silver (XAG/USD) is still an important commodity for industrial consumption and investment, and its price action is driven by this. • Silver still has a bullish inclination despite recent volatility, with technicals pointing towards potential upside action. • The next resistance levels are at $33.40 and $34.00, with a break opening the door to higher price targets. • Key support levels at $32.25 and $31.80 will decide if silver continues its uptrend or falls. • Silver prices are influenced by inflation, central bank actions, and global economic conditions. • Growing demand from solar panels, electronics, and medical applications continues to underpin long-term demand. • A strong dollar, increasing bond yields, or a change in investor sentiment may influence silver’s short-term price movement. Silver (XAG/USD) remains a vital asset in global markets, valued for both its industrial applications and its role as a store of wealth. Its demand spans across various industries, including electronics, solar energy, and medical technology, making it an essential component of modern innovations. Additionally, silver has historically been considered a safe-haven asset, with investors turning to it during times of economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. As the globe goes greener with technology, growing application of silver in renewable energy applications, notably solar panels, keeps driving demand in the long term. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from its industrial and investment interest, silver is also culturally and historically significant in every society across the globe. Jewelry and ornaments to coins and bullion, it has been a mark of prosperity and wealth for ages. Central banks, institutional investors, and retail traders closely monitor silver because it has the dual character of being both a commodity and a financial asset. As the world’s economic trends change, silver is an important component in portfolios and industries as well, capturing wider trends in technology, sustainability, and economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) still displays a bullish inclination from a technical point of view, with leading indicators favoring bullish momentum. The metal has continued to demonstrate its resilience above vital support levels, while daily chart oscillators see positive momentum in gaining traction in a constructive approach. Moving averages, especially the 100-day EMA, serve as decisive pivot points whose price action shows respect for levels. Resistance ranges around $33.40 and $34.00 offer a potential upside targets, while breaching key levels of support sends out a possibility of a trend reversal. All in all, the technical setup for silver is positive for buyers except if a solid breakdown below pivotal support changes direction. FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) still has a positive outlook as market sentiment favors increased gains. Unless buying pressure strengthens, the metal may head for the $33.40 level of resistance with a possible breakthrough allowing $33.60-$33.70. Continued bullish momentum would propel silver even higher towards the psychological figure of $34.00, with a longer-term rally aiming for the $34.50-$35.00 band. Encouraging economic news, higher industrial demand, or a weakening U.S. dollar would serve as the catalysts for higher silver prices in the near term. To the downside, silver has critical support at $32.25-$32.30, which would cap any near-term decline. A decline below this area could reveal the metal to more losses towards $31.80 and the 100-day EMA level around $31.10-$31.00. If downside pressure becomes aggressive, silver would test the $30.80 area, representing a change of heart towards bearish grounds. Events like a firming U.S. dollar, increasing bond yields, or risk-off risk in financial markets would help send silver’s prices lower.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Falls Below $66.50 on US Stockpile Build-Up and Trade War Worries

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  • March 6, 2025
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WTI crude prices have declined below $66.50, hitting their lowest level since December 2021, as the increased US crude stockpiles and rising trade tensions dampen sentiment. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles grew by 3.614 million barrels, contrary to market estimates of a drawdown. Moreover, fears of the economic effects of newly imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have also put pressure on oil prices. OPEC+’s move to go ahead with its scheduled production hike from April has also fueled bearish sentiment in the market, triggering concerns of oversupply in the face of softening global demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • The EIA registered a 3.614 million-barrel rise in crude oil inventories, well above market estimates and putting pressure on WTI prices. • Freshly imposed US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada contribute to economic slowdown fears, potentially dampening worldwide crude demand and adding more pressure on prices. • OPEC+ reaffirmed production hikes from April, the first since 2022, sharpening supply fears and pushing WTI lower. • WTI crude touched its lowest since Dec 2021, failing to find traction in bearish fundamentals as traders look to further downside risks. WTI crude prices have fallen below $66.50, weighed down by a bigger-than-anticipated increase in US crude inventories, rising trade tensions, and OPEC+’s move to boost production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US inventories jumped by 3.614 million barrels, sharply different from market expectations of a fall. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the economic effect of fresh US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has caused growing concerns of decreasing demand, further weighing on market sentiment. At the same time, OPEC+ has scheduled its first output increase since 2022, further supporting supply concerns and putting additional pressure on oil prices downwards. With WTI at its lowest level since December 2021, investors are also wary of additional downside risks for the market. WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $66.50 as US crude inventories rose by 3.614 million barrels, more than forecasts. Rising trade tensions and OPEC+’s production hike plan also contribute to bearish pressure, with investors concerned about slowing global demand and supply glut. • Crude oil prices recorded a new low since December 2021 as bearish market sentiment dominated. • EIA indicated a rise in inventories by 3.614 million barrels, significantly higher than market forecasts of a decline. • Imposition of new US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spooked markets with fears of economic slowdown, weighing on oil demand. • OPEC+ plans to boost oil production from April, a first since 2022, putting pressure on supply. • The market had been expected to decline towards a 290,000-barrel drop, but the surprise inventory build triggered a steep price fall. • Technical weakness coupled with deteriorating fundamentals keeps crude oil under pressure from selling. • Market players are keenly monitoring trade trends, supply fundamentals, and economic indicators for future price movements. The recent events in the crude oil market have indeed sent alarmed signals for traders and investors. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) had reported a huge build-up of US crude inventories, with stocks increasing by 3.614 million barrels. This sudden surge has created talks regarding the possibility of oversupply within the market. Furthermore, OPEC+ has made a decision to go ahead with an April production boost, the first such change since 2022. The action is in line with the group’s plan to keep supplies steady in the face of continued economic uncertainty. At the same time, geopolitical events, such as recently imposed US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, have contributed to the market’s complexity. WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView These tariffs have raised fears of possible economic slowdowns, which would impact worldwide demand for crude oil. Most industries depend on stable trade relationships, and the disruptions caused by tariffs can trigger changes in patterns of production and consumption. Additionally, market players are watching closely policy choices and supply chain shifts that can affect long-term energy demand. As the oil market traverses this transition, eyes are still on critical determinants like world economic performance, geopolitical events, and strategic actions of leading oil-producing countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is under pressure to sell, its price at the lowest since December 2021. The trend in prices is bearish, with the crucial resistance points around $67.00 and $68.50 and immediate support at $65.00. A break below this support level might spark further downside action, building up selling pressure. Moving averages reflect a downward slope, with the price currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, pointing to sustained weakness. Also, momentum gauges like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point towards oversold conditions, which might imply short-term consolidation before a direction move. Traders will be observing closely volume trends and any fundamental drivers that might affect price action in the subsequent sessions. FORECAST WTI crude oil prices may witness a possible bounce if market fundamentals favor buyers. Recovery might be seen if US crude inventories report a decrease in subsequent EIA releases, reflecting stronger demand. Moreover, any upbeat news in world trade, for instance, the resolution of tariffs or better-than-expected economic growth projections, may help buoy crude prices. If WTI is able to breach the major resistance levels of $67.00 and $68.50, it might set the stage for a bull run recovery, possibly towards the $70.00 psychological level. In addition, unforeseen supply interruptions or geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing areas can also drive a price rise. WTI is susceptible to additional declines if bearish pressures continue. The sharp increase in US crude stocks, as well as OPEC+ agreeing to boost output from April, contributes to fears of oversupply in the market. If further weakness in demand expectations arises on account of economic uncertainty, especially due to the effects of tariffs on international trade, WTI could persist with the bearish move. A strong break below the support level of $65.00 might exacerbate selling pressure, pushing prices to $63.50 or even lower. Also, technicals indicate crude

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Volatility Hangs Over Head as White House Crypto Summit Nears

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  • March 5, 2025
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Bitcoin is under increased volatility as it heads into the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, with prices at around $87,600 after stabilizing at $85,000. The summit, which takes place on Friday, is likely to determine future regulation and innovation in the crypto space, creating uncertainty for the market. While that is happening, Bitcoin ETFs also remain in apparent outflows, reflecting poor institutional demand, which may put additional pressure on prices. There is still some optimism, though, as Japanese investment company Metaplanet recently added to BTC holdings, which lifted investor morale. If the $85,000 support level remains, Bitcoin may try to recover, but traders should be wary of possible market volatility. KEY LOOKOUTS • The coming summit has the potential to shape Bitcoin regulations and sentiment, which may result in heightened volatility and define the future of crypto policies. • Bitcoin ETFs saw $217.7 million in outflows this week, which indicates waning institutional appetite, and more price corrections can be expected if the trend continues. • Whether a recovery rally towards $95,000 is feasible will be determined by Bitcoin’s ability to maintain above this critical support, which is situated in line with the 200-day EMA. • Speculators around key events, such as Trump’s crypto position and regulatory changes, should be watched out for by traders since they may trigger sudden price movements and liquidations. The future of Bitcoin is uncertain as the crypto space prepares for possible volatility leading up to the White House Crypto Summit. The event may provide clarity on regulations, which will lead to investor confidence and institutional adoption. However, ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows indicate a cautious stance among institutional investors, raising concerns about market stability. While corporate investments like Metaplanet’s recent Bitcoin purchase reflect long-term optimism, short-term price movements will likely depend on regulatory outcomes and broader market sentiment. As the industry awaits key policy discussions, traders should prepare for possible fluctuations in the coming days. Bitcoin is susceptible to volatility ahead of the White House Crypto Summit, with investors keenly monitoring regulatory updates. Institutional withdrawals keep weighing on BTC, while support at $85,000 holds the key for a rebound. Market speculation and changing sentiment are likely to generate sharp price moves, and thus caution is advisable for investors. • The historic summit may dictate regulatory policies and market sentiment and, in the process, drive Bitcoin volatility. • BTC fluctuates at $87,600 after rebounding from the $85,000 support, with possible recovery to $95,000 if momentum continues. • Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced $217.7 million of outflows this week, indicating weakening institutional demand and possible further price corrections. • There was a brief rally after Trump’s ‘Crypto Strategic Reserve’ announcement but was wiped out, demonstrating a “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect. • BTC’s capacity to remain above this significant level, which coincides with the 200-day EMA, is important for any prospective bullish action. • Speculative actions surrounding regulatory news and institutional participation may cause sudden price movements and potential liquidations. • The $44 million BTC acquisition by the Japanese investment company sparked optimism, showing that some institutions continue to view Bitcoin as a solid asset. The upcoming White House Crypto Summit marks a significant moment for the cryptocurrency industry, bringing together key industry leaders, policymakers, and investors to discuss the future of digital assets. This event highlights the growing importance of cryptocurrency in the financial sector and signals the government’s increasing involvement in shaping regulations. With the topics of innovation, security, and compliance expected to be discussed, the summit may shape the way that crypto becomes a part of mainstream finance. The involvement of high-profile individuals further adds to the likely shift towards a more regulated and organized crypto environment. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView That being said, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains one of the most influential drivers of market sentiment at the same time. As some investment companies are expanding their Bitcoin reserves, overall fluctuations in demand are mirroring wider uncertainties within the sector. The shifting regulatory environment, as well as debates surrounding crypto policies at the highest level, may decide the next stage of adoption and integration. As institutions and governments adopt a more formal stance on digital assets, the future effect on the crypto market will be significantly based on the manner in which regulation strikes a balance between innovation and investor protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The crypto industry is at a pivotal juncture as global debate around regulation and adoption builds momentum. The forthcoming White House Crypto Summit is evidence of how digital assets increasingly play a role in mainstream finance as policymakers and industry executives convene to discuss the future of crypto innovation. The gathering underscores the necessity of clear regulatory guidelines to balance security, compliance, and expansion while instilling investor and institutional confidence. As governments and corporations chart their course through this shifting terrain, choices made today may determine the future place of cryptocurrencies within the world economy. FORECAST The price of Bitcoin may experience a bullish push if encouraging news flows from the White House Crypto Summit, especially if the conversation turns in the direction of straightforward and welcoming regulations. A well-defined regulatory environment would increase investor confidence, draw institutional investment, and propel Bitcoin’s acceptance within mainstream finance. Besides that, increased corporate investments, including Metaplanet’s latest Bitcoin buy, suggest some institutions still believe long-term prospects in digital assets. If that type of investment persists, Bitcoin might see fresh demand and price hikes in the near future. To the negative side, institutional participation uncertainty remains the most critical factor. Bitcoin ETFs have shown major outflows, implying deteriorating demand among big players, which would bear down on prices. In addition, regulatory uncertainty and market speculation tend to stimulate volatility, with sudden price fluctuations and potential liquidations impacting traders. In case institutional outflows continue and no firm regulatory support comes from the forthcoming summit, Bitcoin would find it challenging to stay stable and could be subject to further falls in the short term.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Rise as Safe-Haven Demand Grows and Trade War Fears Bite: Key Drivers Behind XAU/USD Trends

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  • March 5, 2025
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Prices of gold keep rising as demand for safe haven increases in the wake of rising trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports have taken a toll on markets, leading investors to turn to the precious metal as a safe haven. The US also suspended military aid to Ukraine, further boosting gold’s attractiveness. But there are challenges to non-yielding assets such as gold by higher US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. Market players await further guidance from key US economic indicators such as the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change. Technically, gold is still in an uptrend channel, maintaining above important psychological support at $2,900, with scope for more on the upside towards its all-time peak of $2,956. KEY LOOKOUTS • Raising US tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China add to market volatility, fueling safe-haven buying and underpinning gold prices amid economic uncertainty. • Increasing US Treasury yields are exerting bear pressure on non-yielding assets such as gold, possibly capping further gains despite firm safe-haven demand. • The US suspension of military aid to Ukraine stokes geopolitical tensions, making gold more attractive as investors seek refuge from global uncertainty. • Future US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports will hold key to gauging economic growth, potentially impacting gold’s short-term price action. Prices of gold continue to be at the center as investors try to navigate a contradictory blend of trade tensions, growing US Treasury yields, and geopolitics. Implementation of US tariffs on Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese imports has increased market uncertainty, fueling safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has added to geopolitical tensions, contributing to gold’s bullishness. Yet increasing Treasury yields are a threat to non-yielding assets such as gold, and this may limit gains. Traders now look forward to some major US economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, which may further guide XAU/USD in the near term. Gold prices jump as growing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties trigger safe-haven demand. Increasing US Treasury yields, however, pose a hurdle to further growth. Market guidance comes from forthcoming key US economic data. • Gold prices jump as investors search for refuge due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical risks. • Fresh US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China spur market volatility, contributing to gold’s rising momentum. • US suspension of military aid to Ukraine contributes to worldwide uncertainty, making gold more attractive. • Higher yields squeeze non-yielding assets such as gold, constraining further price appreciation. • A stronger US Dollar suppresses gold, producing mixed market sentiment. • Market participants monitor the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change reports closely for information about economic growth. • Gold maintains major support at $2,900, with the resistance at its all-time high of $2,956. Gold prices continue to gain steam as investors move towards safe-haven assets following rising global uncertainties. The latest imposition of US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China has increased market uncertainty, and with it, there are fears of a possible trade war. This has led investors to find safe haven in gold, which is conventionally considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Furthermore, the US government’s move to suspend military assistance to Ukraine has further added to global tensions, supporting gold’s demand as a safe-haven asset during uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from trade and geopolitical issues, market participants are also paying close attention to important US economic indicators. Indices like the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change are likely to offer insights into the resilience of the US economy, impacting investor attitudes. Although worries about weakening economic growth continue, the effect of tariffs on international trade and consumer expenditure is a significant area of concern. Against this backdrop, gold remains in the limelight as a safe-haven asset, a sign of investors’ conservative approach to an increasingly complex financial environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price (XAU/USD) is still in an uptrend channel, signaling a long-term bullish trend. The metal is still trading above the important psychological support level of $2,900, which coincides with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, supporting bullish momentum. Should the price hold above this level, it might target primary resistance at $2,956, its all-time high. But a breakdown below immediate support can soften short-term momentum, potentially resulting in a pullback to lower trendline support. In general, technical indicators indicate that the bullish bias is still intact unless a serious breakdown happens. FORECAST Gold prices should continue to enjoy a bullish picture in the near term as demand for safe haven continues to rule investor sentiment. The rising tensions in trade, especially the US tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, may further push gold’s attraction. Moreover, geopolitical risks such as the US suspending aid to Ukraine are contributing to risk globally, for which gold seems to be the attractive asset. If economic concerns continue to deepen and market fears intensify, gold may receive an upward push towards its all-time high of $2,956. Solid buying interest at critical support levels and continuous momentum above the $2,900 level might consolidate the bullish trend. To the downside, increasing US Treasury yields and a strengthening US Dollar might press on gold prices, capping further advances. Increased bond yields raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, which can lead to profit-taking. Also, if the next US economic releases, including the ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, show the economy is resilient, gold may come under pressure. A break below the $2,900 psychological support level can lead to further losses, with the next significant support at $2,850. But until investor sentiment takes a dramatic turn, any bearish movement could still be capped.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Consolidates Strength on Economic Data and US Dollar Weakness as Major Events Loom

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  • March 5, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to consolidate its strength as the US Dollar (USD) stays weak in the face of economic uncertainty and the pending major data releases. Australia’s GDP growth beat forecasts in Q4 2024, bolstering confidence in the economy, while China’s better-than-expected Services PMI further underpinned the AUD. On the other hand, the US is grappling with rising trade policy concerns as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled potential reappraisal of Trump’s tariffs that have already influenced market mood. The AUD/USD pair is quoted around 0.6260, with technicals indicating support at the nine-day EMA and potential downward risks if major support levels are breached. While the market waits for the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, AUD’s strength is once again the currency market focus. KEY LOOKOUTS • Australia’s Q4 GDP grew 0.6%, beating forecast, affirming economic strength and backing the Australian Dollar during global uncertainty. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested President Trump is considering reversing recently raised tariffs, injecting uncertainty into the US Dollar and affecting market sentiment. • China’s Services PMI rose unexpectedly to 51.4, signaling steady economic growth and offering indirect support to the AUD through trade relations. • The upcoming ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change could influence the USD’s trajectory, shaping short-term movements in the AUD/USD pair. Traders are closely watching key economic and policy developments impacting the Australian Dollar and US Dollar. Australia’s better-than-anticipated Q4 GDP growth of 0.6% has strengthened optimism in the economy, while China’s better Services PMI indicates stable growth, indirectly benefiting the AUD. In contrast, uncertainty surrounds US trade policy, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinting that President Trump might roll back recently imposed tariffs, creating market volatility. With the US ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change due for release, investors are weighing the possible influence on the USD, which is still under pressure. These factors combined determine the short-term direction of AUD/USD, with traders keeping an eye on technical support and resistance levels. Australia’s robust Q4 GDP expansion and China’s better Services PMI underpin the Australian Dollar, while uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy continues to keep the USD under pressure. Market participants are looking for pivotal US economic data releases, including ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, to gauge the influence on AUD/USD momentum. • Q4 2024 GDP expanded 0.6% QoQ, above market expectations and further underpinning economic resilience. • The USD is under pressure with market sentiment weighed down by economic uncertainties and trade policy issues. • Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted Trump might revisit recently imposed tariffs, injecting volatility in the forex market. • The sudden spike to 51.4 indicates consistent economic growth, implicitly backing the Australian Dollar. • Speculators look out for confirmation of releases of major US economic data to determine the short-term direction of the USD. • The two trade close to 0.6260, with support at 0.6271 (nine-day EMA) and possible downside towards 0.6187. • Global trade uncertainty and economic data continue to play a crucial role in driving movements of the forex market, determining AUD/USD trends. The Australian Dollar continues to be strong amidst major economic events and international trade uncertainties. Australia’s GDP growth of 0.6% in Q4 was above market forecasts, indicating the strength of the economy despite global difficulties. Also, China’s better-than-anticipated Services PMI at 51.4 indicates consistent growth, indirectly favoring the AUD because of robust trade relations between the two countries. In the meantime, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still evaluating economic risks, with policymakers keeping a close eye on inflation and labor market performance to inform future monetary policy. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade policy continues to be a pressing issue, as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that President Trump might revisit the recently levied tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding the trade actions has caused apprehension regarding their long-term effects on economic growth and global trade patterns. Additionally, the US suspended all military assistance to Ukraine, creating yet another layer of geopolitical stress for the market. While investors wait for major US economic releases, such as ISM Services PMI and ADP Employment Change, sentiment in the market is subdued, with attention to economic stability and policy guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6260, with sideways action as the market conditions are evaluated by traders. The pair has immediate resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6271, and a stronger resistance at the 50-day EMA of about 0.6303. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, which reflects a risk-averse market sentiment with weak bullish pressure. On the negative side, the major support is at 0.6187, the four-week low seen on March 5. A fall below this level might trigger further drops to 0.6087. With future US economic data releases, AUD/USD price movements might experience greater volatility, impacting short-term technical trends. FORECAST The Australian Dollar (AUD) can witness further gains if economic data keeps supporting positive sentiment in the market. With Australia’s Q4 GDP beating forecasts and China’s economic data indicating resilience, the AUD has fundamentals to support gains. If risk sentiment remains steady globally and US economic worries continue, the AUD/USD currency pair can challenge resistance around 0.6300 in the near future. Also, any signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding holding or changing monetary policy could affect investor sentiment and add more support for the currency pair. Downside-wise, the AUD/USD pair remains susceptible to external threats from US trade policy and economic uncertainty in the world. If the US Dollar strengthens on more robust-than-anticipated economic news or a change in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the pair might experience fresh selling pressure. A breakdown below the key support of 0.6187 would initiate a more severe pullback to 0.6087, the lowest since April 2020. Also, geopolitical tensions, including the US suspension of military assistance to Ukraine, may enhance market volatility, which would trigger risk-off sentiment to weigh on the Australian Dollar.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Sustains Strength With China’s Optimistic Services PMI and RBNZ Leadership Change

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  • March 5, 2025
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NZD/USD sustains strength at about 0.5650 as China’s Services PMI picked up optimistically despite a substantial leadership change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The more-than-anticipated increase in China’s Services PMI to 51.4 indicates healthy economic momentum that can affect the New Zealand Dollar on account of good trade relationships. At the same time, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation introduces uncertainty, as Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby takes over on an acting basis until March 31. On the US side, the Greenback comes under pressure as markets respond to newly imposed tariffs by President Trump and rumors of a policy flip. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades at around 105.70 amidst increasing fears regarding economic growth and trade policies. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s Services PMI rise to 51.4 indicates economic strength, which could strengthen the New Zealand Dollar as a result of robust trade relations. • Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is uncertain, where Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will hold position temporarily until March 31, waiting for an interim replacement. • President Trump’s tariff increase on Canada, Mexico, and China is under scrutiny, and there are rumors that he might reverse policies in face of economic uncertainty. • US Dollar Index (DXY) near 105.70 captures market anxiety regarding trade tensions and possible changes in Trump’s tariff policy. NZD/USD is holding firm at 0.5650 following a higher-than-expected China Services PMI and major events at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). China’s PMI increased to 51.4, supporting economic durability and possibly underpinning the New Zealand Dollar because of close trading relationships. Meanwhile, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation is an added uncertainty, with Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby holding the fort until a temporary appointment is made. On the American side, President Trump’s latest tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China are under fire, with talk of him revisiting his policy in light of economic worries. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds steady at 105.70, a measure of market jitters over trade tensions and policy changes. NZD/USD remains stable around 0.5650 amid a positive China Services PMI and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s resignation. On the other hand, US tariff concerns drag on the US Dollar. • The pair remains stable around 0.5650 amid positive Chinese economic data and leadership changes at the RBNZ. • The index increased to 51.4 in February, above forecast, and points to economic resilience, which could be supportive of the New Zealand Dollar. • Governor Adrian Orr resigns, to be replaced by Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby on an acting basis until March 31. • President Trump’s tariff increases on Canada, Mexico, and China raise market fears, with talk of policy change reversal. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) is traded around 105.70, under pressure from below as trade tensions and fears of economic slowdown weigh. • US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggests that Trump is considering revising his tariff position within less than 48 hours of imposition. • Economic statistics and trade policy from China, New Zealand, and the US continue to drive market movement and currency performance. NZD/USD stays stable as events on the global economic and political front continue. China’s Services PMI unexpectedly climbed to 51.4, indicating a stronger economy, which is important to New Zealand given their robust trade relationship. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also changing leadership, as Governor Adrian Orr has resigned. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby has taken over as acting governor until March 31, and this brings with it an element of transition within the nation’s financial leadership. Though these elements have contributed to confidence in the market, there are still doubts on how new leadership will influence monetary policies in the future. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Internationally, the US is increasingly plagued by concerns with its recent tariffs. President Trump’s move to raise tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has raised questions over possible economic impacts. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that the administration could revisit the tariffs, but reports say Trump is keen to keep them in place. This constant uncertainty over trade policies may affect global markets and investor sentiment as companies and governments weigh the long-term effects of these actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading flat at the 0.5650 level, reflecting consolidation following recent market action. The duo encounters instant resistance around the 0.5680 handle, with a break higher perhaps paving the way for more upside momentum. On the flip side, the area of 0.5620 has been a recent support level that has held firm. The 50-day moving average is in a neutral trend, and RSI hovers in a balanced zone, indicating indecision in the market. If the buying momentum picks up, the pair would challenge higher levels of resistance, while a breakdown below significant support levels would initiate further downward movement. FORECAST NZD/USD may steady higher above the 0.5680 resistance level and potentially as far as 0.5720 in the near term. A convincing breakout above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment and drive the pair to 0.5750. Supporting factors for this upward movement would be sustained economic strength in China, favorable sentiment regarding New Zealand’s trade prospects, and weakness in the US Dollar if market worries about trade tariffs increase. Moreover, any dovish communication from the Federal Reserve or de-escalation of US trade tensions would further propel upside movement. To the downside, as selling pressure builds, NZD/USD may test support around 0.5620, and a breakdown below this may see a further fall to 0.5580. A stronger US Dollar, driven by safe-haven demand or expectations of hawkish monetary policy, may speed up this decline. On top of that, any negative Chinese economic news or doubt about Reserve Bank of New Zealand leadership succession might act as a drag on the New Zealand Dollar. Under deteriorating global risk sentiment, the pair might experience further losses, with 0.5550 being a key support level to monitor.

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