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Commodities Gold

Gold Prices Fall With USD Strength, Trade Policy Risks: Reactions and Forecast

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  • March 1, 2025
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Gold prices fell more than 3% this week, reaching $2,845, as the US Dollar rose to a 10-day high of 107.66 on concerns about increasing trade policy risks and recession. The market responded violently to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the expectation of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025 with the first cut expected in June. The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also indicated that progress toward the 2% inflation goal was being made, further stoking speculation of monetary ease. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped modestly, underpinning the USD rally, and traders took profits before the weekend. In spite of the recent bearish pressure, Goldman Sachs kept its medium-term bullish call, predicting the price of gold to hit $3,100 by the last quarter of 2025. KEY LOOKOUTS • The US Dollar rallied in light of increasing trade tensions, as Trump levied 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, triggering market anxiety and recession jitters. • Markets expect a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, with the initial cut expected in June, which may affect gold prices and investor attitudes. • XAU/USD has critical support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900, with bearish momentum ongoing as traders take profits and rebalance portfolios. • In spite of short-term declines, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, forecasting gold prices to touch $3,100 by 2025-end. Gold prices have come under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% this week as the US Dollar gained strength in the face of increasing trade tensions and recession concerns. President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China has created market uncertainty, pushing investors towards the USD. Meanwhile, expectations of a 70-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in June, have further influenced market sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s Core PCE Price Index signaled steady progress toward the 2% inflation target, reinforcing speculation of policy easing. Technically, XAU/USD struggles below $2,850, with key support at $2,800 and resistance at $2,900. In spite of the recent decline, Goldman Sachs is still optimistic about the long-term prospects, predicting gold prices to reach $3,100 by the end of 2025. Gold prices dived more than 3% this week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of trade policy worries and recession risk. Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada heightened market uncertainty, and the prospect of a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025 contributed to volatility. In the short term, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, predicting gold to hit $3,100 by the close of 2025. • XAU/USD dropped to $2,845 as the US Dollar gained strength due to trade tensions and recession fears. • The US imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and another 10% on China, creating uncertainty. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached 107.66, putting pressure on gold prices and drawing investors due to economic worries. • Markets are expecting a 70-bps Fed rate cut in 2025, starting with the June cut, guiding gold’s movement. • The 10-year Treasury note yield fell modestly, driven by fears of economic slowdown and even monetary easing. • Gold has resistance at $2,900 and support at $2,800, as bearish momentum continues in the short term. • In spite of recent setbacks, Goldman Sachs predicts gold at $3,100 by the end of 2025, holding an upbeat long-term estimate. Gold prices came under heavy pressure this week as global economic issues and policy announcements influenced market sentiment. The US Dollar rallied with increased trade tensions, with President Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% on Chinese imports. These policies have contributed to economic uncertainty worldwide, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets and review their portfolios. The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure, the Core PCE Price Index, also showed consistent advancement toward the 2% goal, supporting expectations of monetary policy loosening in the months ahead. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, market attention is on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy, with investors expecting a 70-basis-point rate cut in 2025 and the initial cut expected in June. As growth forecasts for the economy change, worries about a possible recession continue to guide investments. The Atlanta Fed’s most recent GDPNow estimate is an indicator that the US economy is going into contraction, fueling speculation for future policy action. In the midst of these developments, financial markets across the globe are on tenterhooks, with investors keenly watching economic signals and policy initiatives that may impact financial markets over the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Precious gold prices have shown a bearish trend, posting consecutive losses as investors take profits and rebalance portfolios. XAU/USD was unable to sustain above the $2,850 level after dipping from its high point of $2,885, with major support at $2,800. A fall below this level would reveal further downside to the October 31 high at $2,790 and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770. Support on the upside is at $2,900, then the year-to-date high of $2,956. The US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.229% has so far capped bullion’s rally, with falling real yields presenting ambivalent cues for gold’s next direction. With sustained market volatility, investors are on guard, weighing whether gold can stabilize or continue to lose ground. FORECAST Gold prices can expect bullish pressure in the next few months if market fears continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. The Federal Reserve’s planned rate cuts in 2025, with the first decrease scheduled for June, will weaken the US Dollar, making gold more desirable to investors. Furthermore, should inflationary forces continue or there is a ratcheting of geopolitical tensions, gold may turn stronger again with possible resistance areas at $2,900 and the year-high of $2,956. Long-term views, like that of Goldman Sachs’ expectation that gold will trade at $3,100 through the end of 2025, suggest the metal will

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strength Fades as Range-Bound Trading Takes Center Stage

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  • February 28, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a range-bound stage following the recent two-week Pound Sterling strength that has now faded. According to analysts at UOB Group, although the sharp decline in GBP may be prolonged, oversold levels point to any drop being contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 level. A decisive dip below 1.2570 is not anticipated in the short term, with the overall expectation for GBP/USD to trade between 1.2520 and 1.2670. This transition represents the end of bullish momentum, with a phase of consolidation for the currency pair now to follow. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is likely to trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range, indicating the end of its recent bullish momentum. • As the Pound fell sharply, the oversold market conditions indicate that downside may be contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 band. • The support level is at 1.2570, and resistance is at about 1.2670, outlining the possible trading limits for GBP/USD. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the erosion of bullish momentum, which points towards consolidation instead of further advance. The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a consolidation mode, with the recent bullish trend having lost steam, according to analysts. The sudden decline of the Pound Sterling indicates possible further falls, yet oversold levels suggest the downside may not be extensive within the 1.2570–1.2640 zone. Major support is at 1.2570, while the resistance lies around 1.2670, which is the likely trading range in the near future. The break of 1.2615 validated the reversal of the uptrend, moving the outlook towards a range-bound move instead of an extension of the rally. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range as market sentiment transforms. GBP/USD has turned range-bound, with support at 1.2570 and resistance at 1.2670. Oversold levels indicate limited downside, while momentum changes point towards consolidation in the offing. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range. • GBP/USD should trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range as bullish momentum ebbs. • The sudden fall in GBP in recent times indicates further decline, but oversold levels might restrict downward movement. • 1.2570 is the key support level, and 1.2670 is close to the resistance level, setting the range for expected trading. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the reversal of GBP’s recent strength, and a consolidation phase was indicated. • It is possible for further dips to occur, with a clean breakdown below 1.2570 being improbable in the short run. • Markets need to keep an eye out for movements in the range with changes in sentiment and economic inputs determining GBP/USD prices. • The currency pair will more likely be sideways until new driving factors create a breakout beyond these set levels. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a stable phase at present, with investors following its trend closely. The movement of GBP/USD depends on general economic factors like inflation rates, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical factors, which dictate the value of currencies. Market sentiment is of utmost importance for determining the movement of GBP/USD, with investors evaluating economic policies and overall financial trends. Furthermore, external influences such as trade relations and central bank policies play a role in determining the long-term direction of the currency pair. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView During this phase, market participants are focusing on strategic decision-making according to market trends and fundamental indicators. The influence of financial institutions, economic reports, and policy announcements remains important in determining expectations. Knowledge of the overall economic environment is vital in making trading decisions, as global market conditions and investor sentiment significantly influence currency stability. Keeping abreast of major economic events and financial news continues to be important for those following the GBP/USD pair in today’s environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair shows a consolidation period, with the currency trading in a well-defined range. Major support is seen at 1.2570, and resistance at 1.2670 indicates limited short-term price movement. The break below 1.2615 reinforced the weakening of bullish energy, forming a range-bound pattern. Moving averages and RSI point towards neutral to weakly bearish sentiment, although oversold readings indicate stabilization potential. Traders are awaiting a breakout of this range, which may lead to the pair’s next directional move. FORECAST GBP/USD may try to breach the 1.2670 resistance point if upbeat economic data or a weaker US Dollar propels it. Dovish Federal Reserve cues, solid UK economic growth, or tame inflation levels are some of the factors that can give a boost to further rallies. A prolonged breach above this level can be a sign of the possibility of a longer-term bullish trend. On the other hand, bearish risks persist if the bearish tone gets stronger and pushes below the critical 1.2570 support. Deterioration in UK economic data, anxiety regarding interest rate policies, or a rise in the US Dollar could weigh down on GBP/USD. Once the pair moves below this support, it may leave the stage open for deeper falls, at least testing lower levels in the weeks ahead. Traders should also keep a close eye on economic releases, central bank announcements, and market trends to predict probable price movements.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Dives to Three-Week Low in Face of Steeper USD and Fed Policy Sentiment Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) prices have fallen to a three-week low, closer to the $2,850 level, after a steeper US Dollar and anticipation of the Federal Reserve extending its hawkish policy pushed it lower. While there has been a risk-off market mood as well as lower US Treasury bond yields, the precious metal persists in its bearish trend for the second session in a row. Investors are waiting with bated breath for the coming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation gauge that may shape the Fed’s interest rate view and dictate gold’s short-term direction. Technicals also paint a bearish picture, with more room for decline if support levels are broken. KEY LOOKOUTS • A generally firmer USD continues to weigh on gold prices as investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the face of ongoing inflation fears. • The release of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is likely to impact Fed interest rate decisions and may determine the direction of gold in the near future. • Gold has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which could mean an extended decline if major support levels near $2,800 hold firm. • Investors are wary of global economic risks, such as possible inflationary pressures from Trump’s planned tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and European Union imports. Gold prices continue to decline, hitting a three-week low of about $2,850 as a firmer US Dollar and the anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve dampen the market. Investors are eagerly awaiting the next US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, an important inflation indicator that may affect the Fed’s interest rate policy and, in turn, gold’s direction. Gold is still under selling pressure despite a risk-off mood and declining US Treasury yields. Technical indicators are signaling further weakness if major support levels, especially around $2,800, are broken. Moreover, market anxiety regarding possible inflationary impacts from Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and the European Union contributes to uncertainty in gold’s near-term direction. Gold prices declined to a three-week low around $2,850 due to a stronger USD and the anticipation of a hawkish Fed. Market participants are waiting for US PCE inflation data that could have implications for interest rates and gold’s direction. Technical indicators indicate more downside if support levels are breached. • XAU/USD declines around $2,850 as a stronger US Dollar weighs down on the market. • The US Dollar remains on the mend with expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. • Market participants look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for guidance on the Fed’s next step. • Policymakers focus on taming inflation, dampening expectations of rate cuts. • Gold falls below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating further losses if major support around $2,800 breaks. • In spite of market uncertainties, gold finds it difficult to attract safe-haven demand. • Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the EU can affect inflation and guide gold’s direction. Gold prices continue to be pressured due to a firming US Dollar and anticipation of a hawkish Federal Reserve depressing market sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is a key inflation indicator, is in the spotlight as market participants seek guidance on future interest rate action. As inflation fears continue, Fed policymakers have signaled a prudent stance towards cutting interest rates, supporting the Dollar’s strength. Moreover, recent evidence of steady US economic growth also makes the argument for maintaining interest rates high, which diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from monetary policy, geopolitical and trade-related concerns contribute to the uncertainty. Investors are intently watching proposed tariffs by former US President Donald Trump on imports from Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, which can be inflationary in nature. These trade measures can influence global economic stability, shaping market sentiment for safe-haven assets. In the meanwhile, falling US Treasury bond yields and general risk-off market conditions have not gone far in favor of gold since traders are staying guarded before critical economic data and policy indications. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has fallen beneath significant support points, suggesting potential extension of its corrective decline. The price has fallen below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line of the rally from December through February, portending growing bearish momentum. Daily chart oscillators are establishing negative momentum, supporting the chance for further falls. If the sellers force the price down below the $2,855 level, the next major support is close to the $2,834 area, and then the 38.2% Fibonacci of $2,815-$2,810. A clear fall below the psychological $2,800 level could seal a bearish reversal. Conversely, a bounce above $2,867 might encounter resistance around the $2,885-$2,900 area, with continuous buying potentially revealing the all-time high of $2,956. FORECAST Gold may strengthen if future US economic releases, especially the PCE Price Index, indicate decelerating inflation, leading to hopes of a dovish Federal Reserve. A lower inflation reading can raise the chances of interest rate reductions, weakening the US Dollar and strengthening demand for gold as a safe-haven. Should gold recover the $2,867 resistance level, it may probe the $2,885-$2,900 zone, while a sustained breakout may propel it towards the $2,915 level. Stronger follow-through buying could take prices even closer to the lifetime high of $2,956 as buying interest picks up. Against the downside, gold will continue to be at risk if inflation does not recede and Fed officials continue to hint at a hawkish bias, underpinning the resilience of the US Dollar. A failure at levels above $2,855 would unleash a further bout of selling pressure that would push the price towards $2,834 support. A firm break beneath the $2,815-$2,810 zone would invite a slide toward the important psychological level of $2,800. If fear prevails, further losses look likely, that could push the price below $2,780, indicating an extended correction off recent highs.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Rally Falters Amid Institutional Selling and Tariff Uncertainty

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  • February 28, 2025
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Bitcoin was highly volatile this week, trading at around $86,000 following a steep 15% drop that saw prices dip as low as $82,256. The decline was largely fueled by President Trump’s renewed tariff threats and declining institutional demand, as seen through massive ETF outflows of $2.2 billion. Technical indicators, such as an oversold RSI, suggest a possible rebound, but traders are still wary in the face of general market uncertainty and concerns that more corrections will send Bitcoin’s price to about $73,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in outflows, adding selling pressure and raising questions about sustained downside momentum. • Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and North America add to market uncertainty, potentially putting additional weight on BTC price action. • BTC’s significant support is $73,000; a fall below this may initiate a deeper correction, but RSI suggests potential recovery. • As concerns over stagflation increase, Bitcoin remains trading in tandem with risk assets, with liquidation pressure in the face of economic uncertainty. Bitcoin’s latest price movement indicates a struggle between rebounding and more downward pressure, with the cryptocurrency stuck near $86,000 after an intense 15% fall this week. The rout was prompted by institutional players liquidating their holdings, with Bitcoin ETFs posting $2.2 billion of net redemptions over the last three days. Compounding the doubts, President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the European Union, as well as delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, triggered risk-off across world markets. The analysts suggest that if bearish pressure continues, BTC can challenge the decisive $73,000 support threshold. But as the RSI indicator also displays oversold, a possible flip remains in consideration, leaving speculators in waiting mode. Bitcoin is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall, fueled by institutional selling and Trump’s tariff threats against the EU. With $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin ETF outflows, market sentiment is still bearish, and BTC may test the $73,000 support level if selling pressure persists. Nevertheless, the RSI indicates oversold levels, which may see a rebound. • BTC is trading at $86,000 following a steep 15% fall earlier this week. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $2.2 billion in net outflows in the last three days, adding to selling pressure. • President Trump’s suggested 25% tariffs on the EU and delayed duties on Canada and Mexico have sparked risk-off sentiment. • Stagflation and economic instability fears have prompted investors to cut risk exposure, affecting BTC prices. • If selling pressure persists, BTC may test the key $73,000 support level in the next few days. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oversold and may reflect a reversal or bounce. • Although there’s a possibility of a rebound, BTC is still volatile, and traders need to be ready for more price fluctuations. Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the influence of externalities, such as geopolitical tensions and changing investor sentiment. The current tariff talks, especially President Trump’s suggested 25% tariff on the European Union, have introduced uncertainty in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are watching closely as global economic policies continue to influence the digital asset space. Institutional investors, meanwhile, have been selling their Bitcoin holdings, adding to overall market trends and informing trading behavior. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from market forces, the use of Bitcoin as a hedge for economic uncertainty is also an important topic of discussion. While others consider it a store of value, there are others who perceive it as a high-risk asset to be buffeted by external factors. The cryptocurrency market is always closely associated with macroeconomic indicators, regulatory actions, and investor sentiment, all of which are influential in determining its future. With the changing global financial environment, Bitcoin remains in the middle of all the talk regarding digital assets and their role in today’s economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin recently broke below significant support levels, which was a sign of a change in momentum. The recent selling pressure, fueled by institutional outflows and macroeconomic uncertainties, has added to heightened volatility. Nonetheless, technical analysis using Relative Strength Index (RSI) also points toward oversold situations that might precipitate a reversal or short-lived relief rally. Even the trend of volume confirms diminished buying interest that continues to underscore cautious feelings from the trading fraternity. Bitcoin might experience more corrections unless it finds renewed strength past the levels of resistance, yet breaking through principal moving averages will reverse bullish vigor. FORECAST Bitcoin may pick up steam and move towards higher resistance levels. A decline in institutional outflows and renewed buying interest from big investors may create buying pressure, firming up the price. Moreover, any favorable macroeconomic news, including clarity on tariffs or alleviating inflation fears, may restore confidence in risk assets, including BTC. If demand picks up, Bitcoin may regain earlier highs and try to break resistance levels, indicating a possible bullish trend. On the negative side, Bitcoin is still susceptible to further corrections if selling pressure persists. Institutional investors selling their holdings and continued uncertainty regarding global economic policies may trigger another round of declines. If Bitcoin fails to hold onto key support levels, it can test lower price levels, possibly hitting the $73,000 level. Additionally, macroeconomic threats like extended stagflation concerns and decreased liquidity in financial markets may contribute to downward pressure, making short-term recovery difficult.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Crosses 150: Japanese Yen Weakens as Policy Uncertainty and Fed Expectations Bite

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  • February 28, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has continued to depreciate against a relatively stronger US Dollar (USD), with USD/JPY breaking above the 150.00 level as uncertainty over monetary policies grips markets. Japan’s smaller fiscal budget and falling bond yields have put additional pressure on the Yen, though hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes could cap its decline. In the meantime, investors are waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate policy and decide on the next step for USD/JPY. Technically, the pair is still in consolidation mode, with major resistance at 150.30 and nearby support around 149.00. The wider picture indicates the possibility of an extension of losses, yet any upside breakout would propel the pair towards the 152.40 level, a significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 150.30 resistance point remains important, with a breakdown below 149.00 potentially to extend losses towards the 147.00 level. • The Japanese government’s budget reductions might act to soften the Yen, yet BoJ’s resolve to raise rates might act as long-term support. • Merchants look to the PCE Price Index for hints about the Fed’s next step, affecting USD strength and USD/JPY direction. • Risk-off sentiment can increase demand for the safe-haven Yen, slowing USD/JPY gains even as the Dollar is stronger overall. The USD/JPY currency pair is still at a critical crossroads as traders balance Japan’s fiscal reforms with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) possible rate hikes, in addition to waiting for major US economic releases. The budget cutting of the Japanese government and decreased bond yields have been pressuring the Yen, but hopes of more monetary tightening from the BoJ might soften its fall. On the other hand, the US Dollar is strong as it awaits the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which might shape Federal Reserve policy and determine the next direction for USD/JPY. Technical analysis points to major resistance at 150.30, with a breakaway possibly taking the pair to 152.40, while support is close at 149.00. Market sentiment, especially a move towards risk-off trades, can also influence movement of the pair in the next few sessions. The USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to the 150.00 level as Japan’s fiscal policy and BoJ’s rate hike chances are compared with US economic indicators. The US PCE Price Index to be released next will have implications for Fed policy, which may affect the Dollar’s strength and Yen’s performance. The significant resistance is 150.30, while the important support lies at 149.00. • The US Dollar gains as the Japanese Yen loses strength, taking USD/JPY higher than the psychological level. • The government spending cuts and decreased bond issuance exert pressure on the Yen, regardless of BoJ’s possible interest rate hikes. • Investors also expect additional BoJ tightening that will cap excessive Yen weakening even with weaker economic data. • The next US PCE Price Index will play a pivotal role in determining the Federal Reserve’s next step. • The crucial resistance is 150.30, while the support is 149.00, with the possibility of losses to 147.00 in case of breaching. • A risk-off sentiment may underpin the Yen as a safe-haven currency, offsetting some USD strength. • Hawkish Fed rhetoric and inflation worries imply minimal near-term rate cuts, maintaining the USD strong against the JPY. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure as market participants weigh Japan’s economic policies against global monetary trends. The latest move by the government to slash its fiscal budget and cut back on bond issuance has created alarm over economic growth and financial health. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is, however, sticking with its gradual policy shifts, expecting interest rate rises to persist as inflation edges near the central bank’s 2% target. Even as Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures slowed down, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated the bank’s position, laying stress on the consistent uptick in core inflation. Japan’s industrial production has, however, been in decline, reflecting economic weakness that may go on to shape policy actions in the future. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, investors are watching US economic data closely, especially the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Recent US economic data has continued to point to persistent inflationary pressures, and it implies that the Fed will keep its restrictive policy going for a more extended period of time. Policy-makers have signaled that they will maintain interest rates firm to contain inflation, and hence there is careful market sentiment. Furthermore, worry about possible inflationary threats due to future policies of the US government provides a further source of uncertainty. With traders waiting for fresh economic reports, the general market outlook remains focused on the policies of the central banks as well as the economic performance in Japan and the US. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY continues in a state of consolidation, with the significant levels determining its short-term path. The currency pair has been fluctuating around the 150.00 psychological level, and the immediate resistance is located around 150.30, coinciding with the weekly high. A clean break above this might unleash additional upward momentum, and the 150.90–151.00 zone could be a possible target. To the downside, robust support is noted at 149.00, with a breakdown below this level leaving the pair vulnerable to further losses in the direction of the 148.60–148.55 area. Overall trend indicates that the pair continues in a bearish consolidation pattern after its retracement from the multi-month high of around 159.00 during the early part of the year. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, which means that selling pressure continues, and unless there is a breakout, the overall outlook still supports a downside bias. FORECAST USD/JPY may break above the crucial resistance at 150.30, with the possibility of further increases. A long-term move above this level may lead to short-covering, pushing the pair to the 150.90–151.00

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Grapples with Tariff Threats, Economic Woes, and Supply Disruptions

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  • February 28, 2025
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WTI crude oil is under pressure at about $69.90 a barrel as concerns over world economic growth and demand for fuel dwarf supply threats. The market grapples with several headwinds, ranging from the United States imposing a 10% tariff on March 4 for Canadian energy imports, a recession in the United States with Q4 GDP declining to 2.3%, and increasing jobless claims. At the same time, oil prices experienced a short-term boost as President Trump canceled Chevron’s right to do business in Venezuela, potentially upsetting a large section of the country’s oil exports. Furthermore, OPEC+ is considering its production strategy with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, putting the market on its toes as investors wait for crucial economic indicators and policy announcements. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI lags at $69.90 amid economic slowdown concerns and U.S. tariff threats on market sentiment, despite fleeting price spikes. • A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 poses supply disruption risks and the risk of Canadian retaliatory actions. • Trump’s cancellation of Chevron’s Venezuela license puts oil exports at risk, which could influence global supply trends and trigger new talks with PDVSA. • OPEC+ considers its April production plan in the face of new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, creating additional market uncertainty. WTI crude oil continues to struggle, trading at about $69.90 per barrel, as global economic worries and U.S. tariff threats dampen market sentiment. The Biden administration’s move to apply a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 creates supply chain disruption concerns and possible retaliatory measures. In the meantime, oil prices briefly surged after President Trump cancelled Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, an action that would dislocate more than 25% of Venezuela’s oil exports. Contributing to volatility in the markets, OPEC+ still hasn’t decided on its April production plan amidst new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, leaving market players uncertain about forthcoming supply levels. As the U.S. economy is already reflecting slowdown growth and growing jobless claims, investors are now looking forward to the coming PCE price index report, a leading indicator of inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. WTI crude oil trades at $69.90 as economic slowdown concerns, US tariff risks, and supply disruptions hold prices in check. Market volatility is supported by the Chevron-Venezuela license cancellation and OPEC+ policy uncertainty, keeping investors nervous. • WTI remains low around $69.90 per barrel as economic slowdown risks and supply-demand weak fuel burden the market. • The U.S. will slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4, causing concern over supply disruptions and trade tensions. • Trump withdrew Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, putting more than 25% of the nation’s oil exports at risk and affecting global supply. • Q4 GDP growth fell to 2.3%, from 3.1% in Q3, with increasing jobless claims signaling possible weakness in the labor market. • In spite of bearishness, oil prices jumped more than 2% on supply fears after the Chevron-Venezuela news. • OPEC+ remains undecided on its April production plan with new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia adding to market uncertainty. • Traders are waiting for the PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s most important inflation indicator, for clues on possible policy changes. WTI crude oil is increasingly uncertain with geopolitical tensions and policy changes dictating the energy market. The U.S. government’s imposition of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 has created uncertainty around supply chain stability and possible trade wars. At the same time, President Trump’s action to rescind Chevron’s operating license in Venezuela brings even more complexity since it has the potential to blow up a sizable portion of Venezuela’s oil exports. These incidents have put energy traders and market participants waiting closely for further policy announcements and possible long-term effect on world oil dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the same time, OPEC+ is considering its April production plan against the backdrop of continued geopolitical changes and new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The organization has a tricky balancing act to perform between keeping production steady and reacting to possible supply disruptions. Concerns about economic growth, inflationary pressures, and labor market developments also continue to shape investor attitudes. While policymakers and businesspeople confront these difficulties, the issue is how the world’s energy policies will change to accommodate new economic and political realities. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is at present trading just below the $70.00 psychological level, with resistance near $71.50 and support near $68.50. The price continues to trade below major moving averages, which reflects bearish short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands just above the neutral zone, indicating indecisiveness from traders. A breakout above $71.50 might indicate further upside potential, and a fall below $68.50 can result in sustained losses. Volume analysis indicates diminishing buying interest, supporting the bearish mood in the market. Traders are observing closely for confirmation of a breakout or consolidation. FORECAST WTI crude oil is able to remain above the $70.00 level and breaches the crucial resistance at $71.50, it may initiate a bullish trend. A consistent rally above this level might force prices towards the next resistance at $73.00, where the buying interest may take even more control. Furthermore, if OPEC+ chooses to cut or keep output steady, supply worries might intensify and push prices upward. Upbeat economic news, softening inflation, or a recovery in worldwide fuel demand could also underpin a near-term crude oil price uptrend.  WTI cannot hold the $70.00 mark and goes below $68.50, selling pressure can increase, and prices can move towards the next support level at $66.00. Increasing worries about world economic growth, soft demand signals, and the effect of U.S. tariffs on oil imports may also pressure oil prices further. Further, any surprising rise in crude oil stocks or a firm U.S. currency could contribute to bearishness, raising the probability of a more acute fall in WTI prices.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Trump Tariff Threats Shake Eurozone Markets

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  • February 27, 2025
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EUR/USD is under fresh pressure as the US’s former President Donald Trump once again threatens to slap 25% tariffs on Eurozone automobiles and other imports, driving the currency pair close to 1.0460. The US Dollar becomes a safe-haven in the face of rising trade tensions, though hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate cut cap its upside. While political instability in Germany and the weak economic performance in the Eurozone contribute to the woes of the Euro, investors now wait with bated breath for critical economic releases such as the US PCE inflation and initial HICP from the major Eurozone economies, which may also continue to sway sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • The proposal by the US President to apply 25% tariffs on cars in the Eurozone is worrying about trade tensions and regional economic growth. • Safe-haven appetite increases the USD, but hope for a June Federal Reserve rate cut may prevent its further gain. • The release of Friday’s preliminary HICP inflation figures in Germany, France, and Italy will inform expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s forthcoming monetary policy. • US Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and the PCE inflation report are carefully followed by investors as gauges for the Fed’s future policy. EUR/USD continues to come under pressure as Trump’s fresh tariff threats against Eurozone imports add to trade tensions, increasing the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Nevertheless, anticipation of a June Federal Reserve rate cut caps the greenback’s gains. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Germany’s coalition government and structural economic issues also continue to put pressure on the Euro. Investors shift their attention to important economic indicators, such as the US PCE inflation report and initial HICP inflation readings from major Eurozone economies, which will be instrumental in determining market mood and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance. EUR/USD falters as Trump’s threats of tariffs on the Eurozone increase the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. Attention turns to US PCE inflation and Eurozone HICP data, which will shape the Federal Reserve and ECB’s monetary policy direction. • The US President intends to apply 25% tariffs to Eurozone vehicles, escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty. • The pair declines close to 1.0460, dragged down by tariff concerns and deteriorating Eurozone economic conditions. • Safe-haven demand for the USD grows but is tempered by expectations of a June Fed rate cut that curb its potential. • Continuity of coalition government talks exacerbates the Euro’s woes and economic uncertainty. • German, French, and Italian HICP inflation prints on the way, which will guide ECB monetary policy expectations. • Durable Goods Orders and PCE inflation headlines will steer Fed rate views. • EUR/USD is getting major support at 1.0440, with a resistance level of 1.0630, while RSI indicates declining bullish momentum. EUR/USD is under pressure as trade tensions between the US and Eurozone rise following the fresh threats by former US President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on European car imports. This has raised fears regarding the economic blow for the Eurozone, which is already reeling under poor demand and sluggish growth. In turn, a European Commission official threatened severe retaliatory action against any unwarranted trade restrictions. At the same time, political instability in Germany contributes to the region’s instability, with coalition talks prolonging economic uncertainty. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has called on the new German government to tackle structural vulnerabilities to enhance the country’s competitiveness. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, market participants are anxiously awaiting economic indicators that would determine the next policy action from the Federal Reserve. Although the US Dollar has strengthened on account of its safe-haven demand, hopes for a Fed rate cut in June still dominate sentiment. Latest economic data point to a moderation in US service sector growth and dipping consumer confidence, supporting expectations of monetary easing. While that is happening, investors are also waiting for crucial inflation readings such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is an important gauge of the Fed’s inflation expectations. Traders in the Eurozone are also watching out for the German, French, and Italian inflation data in the coming days, which will help decide the direction of European Central Bank’s future monetary policy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow band around 1.0500, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as solid support around 1.0440. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) floats below the 60.00 mark, showing no strong bullish momentum. A break above this level could instigate further bullish potential. On the negative side, the February 10 low of 1.0285 serves as a crucial support level, and resistance is at the December 6 high of 1.0630. A move above this resistance might solidify the position of the Euro, while a fall below the crucial support levels might accelerate selling pressure. FORECAST In case market sentiment turns positive for risk assets, EUR/USD might recover. A less firm US inflation reading, specifically a softer-than-anticipated PCE Price Index, might support the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, which would put downward pressure on the US Dollar. And if Eurozone inflation readings surprise to the upside, it might make the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold off on rate cuts even stronger, which would be bullish for the Euro. Any settlement or relief in trade tensions between the US and Eurozone can also give a boost to EUR/USD. A breakout above the crucial resistance of 1.0630 can pave the way for further advances. Conversely, ongoing trade uncertainty due to Trump’s tariff threats can also bear down heavily on the Euro, as the Eurozone economy is still fragile. Any indication of economic fragility in Germany, particularly from future inflation readings or coalition government instability, would also have a further bearish effect on sentiment towards the Euro. If US economic figures remain robust, corroborating the Fed’s conservatism in reducing interest rates, then the US Dollar could gain further support, driving EUR/USD down. A fall below the

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure: Soft Economic Data and Trade Tensions Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • February 27, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is under pressure today due to weak economic data, increasing US-China trade tensions, and a robust US Dollar. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly, which caused concerns regarding economic growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be guarded on rate cuts in the future. Global trade tensions, such as new US tariffs and China restrictions, provide additional downside risks to the AUD. Technicals are bearish and point to 0.6300 as the key support. But a change in market mood or weaker US economic data might prompt a short-term recovery. Traders will watch closely for economic releases and policy announcements for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The surprise 0.2% decline in Private Capital Expenditure and soft CPI readings add to doubts over the economic resilience and growth forecasts of Australia. • The USD remains on the rise amidst risk-off sentiment, fueled by robust economic performance, trade policy changes, and increasingly hawkish Fed tone. • Rising US-China tensions surrounding trade, tariff escalations, and heightened chip export restraints may additionally put more pressure on the Australian Dollar given the dependence of Australian trade on China. • AUD/USD retests key support at 0.6300. A failure can see it test 0.6087, whereas for recovery, it needs to breach resistance at 0.6329. The Australian Dollar remains pressured by dovish domestic economic indicators and a worsening US-China trade tensions risk souring sentiment in the markets. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure decreased unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, disappointing expectations of an 0.8% gain, while also failing to contain consumer inflation expectations. At the same time, the US Dollar keeps rising under risk-off sentiment, supported by economic strength and hardening trade measures in the Trump administration. As the AUD/USD currency pair is about 0.6300 support level, additional downside risks arise should trade war tensions escalate or risk mood turn negative. Traders look ahead to future economic releases and policy news for added guidance. The Australian Dollar depreciates as weak economic news and growing US-China trade tensions bear down on mood. The AUD/USD currency pair remains close to 0.6300 support, subject to downside pressures with a firm US Dollar. Market players watch for future policy changes and global economic trends for further guidance. • Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q4 2024, marking below-forecast 0.8% growth, reflecting economic slowdown fears. • The USD is still strong as risk-off conditions prevail, fueled by a robust economy, hawkish Fed stance, and trade policy changes. • Heightened US-China trade tensions, such as more stringent tariff policy and the export restriction of chips, elevate uncertainty over the Australian Dollar. • The RBA recently slashed interest rates to 4.10% but is wary of further easing, with an eye on inflation and labor markets. • Being Australia’s top trading partner, any China slowdown or policy change, including monetary measures by PBOC, would impact the AUD. • AUD/USD is probing support at pivotal 0.6300, with a possibility of falling to 0.6087 if bearish pressure continues, while resistance is at 0.6329. • Risk aversion, geopolitical factors, and global economic trends will be key factors influencing AUD/USD’s short-term direction. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure as weak economic reports and rising trade tensions in the market generate uncertainty. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, below forecasts, sending warning signs of weakening business spending. Furthermore, inflation reports were not up to expectations, displaying lingering economic woes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just lowered interest rates to 4.10% but is still wary of future monetary policy actions. RBA officials have noted that although inflationary pressures will ease, a robust labor market might sustain price growth, leaving future rate cuts in doubt. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Global trade dynamics also contribute to the Australian Dollar’s woes, especially escalating tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration’s strategy to impose tariffs and limit chip exports to China may affect the economy of Australia because it has a robust trading relationship with China. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is actively pumping liquidity into the financial system, which can have an effect on market stability. With the changing global economic landscape, investors are keeping a close eye on how trade policies and central bank actions influence the prospects of the Australian economy and its currency. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is presently under immense bear pressure, with the price fluctuating around the psychological support of 0.6300. The pair is still below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which is a sign of diminishing short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming the bearish perspective. Further breakdown below 0.6300 would take the pair to lower support levels, while recovery would need a strong break above the 14-day EMA at 0.6323 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6329 to resume bullish momentum. The traders will keenly watch these levels for trend reversals in the next few sessions. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains under downside pressure with weak domestic economic statistics and external trade uncertainty bearing down on sentiment. If bearish pressures continue, AUD/USD may drop below the important 0.6300 support level with potential testing of lower levels around 0.6200 or even 0.6087 in the short term. Increased global trade deterioration, especially escalating US-China tensions, will put additional pressure on the currency. Furthermore, market unease regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to monetary easing could restrain investor sentiment, further contributing to the bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment turns optimistic, AUD/USD might experience a short-term bounce, especially if risk appetite picks up or US economic news disappoints, causing a weaker US Dollar. A breakout above near-term resistance levels of 0.6323 (14-day EMA) and 0.6329 (nine-day EMA) would indicate a possible recovery. If the bullish momentum picks up, the pair would try to recapture the recent high of 0.6408. But continued upside action will heavily rely on the improvement in Australian economic data

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Floats Close to Weekly Lows Despite Increasing US Bond Yields and Trade Risk

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  • February 27, 2025
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Gold prices are under strain, trading close to a weekly low of less than $2,900 as increasing US Treasury bond yields strengthen the US Dollar. A minor USD rebound combined with a good equity market mood has dented demand for the safe-haven metal. Nonetheless, volatility regarding US President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy and persisting concerns about the ongoing trade war lends some support to XAU/USD. While in the meantime hopes for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts based on indications that the US economy is slowing offer a cap to gold losses, market participants look to future US economic releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index, for more market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher US Treasury bond yields are favoring the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices and capping upside moves. • Doubts surrounding President Trump’s plans on tariffs, especially on imports from the EU, Mexico, and Canada, can affect safe-haven demand for gold. • Market expectations of more Fed rate cuts due to weakening US economic growth can act as a floor to gold, capping its downside. • Major releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will provide new information about economic conditions and gold price action. Gold prices are still volatile as investors closely watch major economic and geopolitical events. The increasing US Treasury bond yields have supported the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on the precious metal. In the meantime, uncertainty regarding President Trump’s tariffs strategies, particularly possible levies on European goods, persists and continues to move markets. Regardless of these bearish elements, hopes for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts as evidenced by slowing US growth could offer some purchasing pressure support for gold. Further, near-term US economic data releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will be instrumental in deciding the future direction for XAU/USD. Gold prices remain under pressure as rising US bond yields strengthen the US Dollar, weighing on the metal. Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans and expectations of Fed rate cuts may influence price movements. Key US economic data, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, will provide further direction. • XAU/USD trades below $2,900, pressured by rising US bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. • A US Treasury yield rally strengthens the USD, putting downward pressure on gold prices. • New tariffs on EU imports and Mexican and Canadian tariff delays instill market uncertainty, affecting gold demand. • Market speculation of additional Fed rate cuts in a slowing US economy can be bullish for gold. • Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will be key drivers of short-term gold price action. • The key support is at $2,888, and a break below $2,860 could initiate further weakness down to $2,800. • A breakout above $2,920 may see selling pressure around $2,930, but persistent strength can drive gold up to $2,950-$2,955 resistance. Gold prices continue to be shaped by general economic and geopolitical conditions as investors weigh the effects of increasing US bond yields and trade tensions. The rising US Dollar, bolstered by a recovery in Treasury yields, continues to pressure the precious metal. But worries over President Trump’s tariff policies, including possible tariffs on European imports and ongoing trade tensions with Mexico and Canada, foster an environment of uncertainty. These geopolitical trends tend to propel safe-haven demand, making gold still a part of investors’ investment portfolios. Further Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, fueled by the indications of an economic growth slowdown, may also influence gold’s long-term attractiveness. GOLD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Market participants are now keenly observing the significant US economic data releases that may further indicate the economic outlook. Data releases like Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will assist in assessing the US economy’s strength and impact investor mood. Further guidance on the central bank’s future monetary policy may also be provided by speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Against these events, gold continues to be an asset of interest, with investors weighing its safe-haven attraction against changing macroeconomic fundamentals. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are immediately supported at the $2,888 level, with further downside risk to the $2,860-$2,855 area if bearish momentum continues. A break below this area would increase selling pressure, driving prices towards the $2,834 level and potentially the psychological $2,800 level. To the upside, resistance is found near the $2,920 level, with further selling pressure anticipated around the $2,930 area. A continued breakout above this barrier may set the stage for additional gains towards the $2,950-$2,955 resistance zone, which is the record high achieved earlier this week. The next direction will be closely monitored by traders through price action at these significant levels. FORECAST Gold prices might experience increased downward pressure in the near term on account of a rising US Dollar and an increase in Treasury bond yields. As the USD recovers from multi-month lows, investor psychology can be inclined towards riskier assets, decreasing demand for the safe-haven metal. Further, a bullish sentiment in equity markets and confusion over US tariff policies can be adding to short-term selling pressure. If bearish momentum grows, gold may test lower supports at $2,860, with further downside potential towards $2,834 or even $2,800. On the plus side, gold still has recovery potential if macroeconomic conditions become favorable to it. Rising hopes of cuts in Federal Reserve rates, underpinned by evidence of declining US economic growth, may raise gold demand since lower interest rates lower the opportunity cost of carrying non-yielding assets. Apart from that, geopolitical tensions in the form of trade uncertainties with regards to President Trump’s policy of tariffs might underpin safe-haven purchasing. If gold is able to overcome the $2,920 resistance level, it could gain more momentum towards the $2,950-$2,955 zone, with the possibility of testing new highs if positive sentiment continues to build.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls Target 1.4450 as Momentum Builds

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  • February 27, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair maintains its upward momentum, moving above 1.4350 and targeting the important psychological resistance of 1.4450. Technicals such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50 and the pair above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) validate a building short-term trend. A decisive breach above 1.4450 would set the stage for a retest of the 1.4793 level, last touched in March 2003. On the downside, initial support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.4286, and a breach below this would set the stage for a more significant correction towards the two-month low of 1.4151. KEY LOOKOUTS • USD/CAD continues in an uptrend, staying above major EMAs and boosted by RSI above 50, indicating potential extension to 1.4450 resistance. • A strong break above the psychological level of 1.4450 has the potential to drive the pair to 1.4793, last visited in March 2003. • Near-term support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.4286, with a breakdown below potentially prompting a move towards the two-month low of 1.4151. • A failure to maintain gains above 1.4450 may erode bullish pressure, triggering a possible correction to the three-month low of 1.3927. The USD/CAD currency pair remains in firm bullish mode on the back of its standing above dominant moving averages and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. The near-term attention is at the psychological resistance level of 1.4450, with a clean break seen taking the pair up towards the 1.4793 level last recorded in March 2003. On the downside, the nine-day EMA level of 1.4286 acts as the first point of support, followed by the 14-day EMA level of 1.4284. A decline below these levels may undermine the short-term bullish perspective and direct the pair to the two-month low of 1.4151. The traders should be careful of a possible pullback if the pair is unable to hold above 1.4450, as it can create a more serious correction towards the three-month low of 1.3927. USD/CAD continues to stay bullish, trading above important EMAs and bolstered by an RSI reading above 50. A break above 1.4450 would drive the pair towards 1.4793, and support at 1.4286 is important to avoid a further pullback. • USD/CAD continues its winning streak, trading above important EMAs and holding a strong short-term bullish bias. • The psychological level of importance at 1.4450 is the next target, with a break higher potentially paving the way to 1.4793. • The nine-day EMA at 1.4286 is the nearest support, closely followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.4284. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, supporting the bullish outlook and potential for further gains. • A break above 1.4450 may cause a retest of the 1.4793 level, last seen in March 2003. • Failure of the pair to hold above 1.4450 may initiate a corrective decline to the two-month low of 1.4151. • A more pronounced fall may test the three-month low of 1.3927, which is still a major support level for the long-term trend. The USD/CAD currency pair remains to be of much interest as market forces determine its direction. Releases of economic data, interest rate measures, and international trade patterns are key to determining the performance of the currency pair. Economic stability and monetary policy decisions drive the strength of the U.S. dollar and influence its exchange rate with respect to the Canadian dollar. Further, Canada’s commodity-driven economy, relying heavily on energy exports such as oil, watches its currency waver with changes in the trend of the energy markets. This external impact affects USD/CAD’s trajectory and has USD/CAD under keen observation from traders and investors alike. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Political developments and domestic economic reports in both nations contribute further to the movement of USD/CAD. Market mood, investor sentiment, and risk appetite drive changes in demand for the Canadian and U.S. currencies. The bilateral trade relations between the two countries also contribute to the dynamics, with alterations in tariffs, free trade agreements, or cross-border investments affecting exchange rates. Moreover, employment figures, inflation readings, and consumption spending patterns of the U.S. and Canada indicate economic wellness, driving market expectations. Consequently, USD/CAD is still a major pair in the foreign exchange market, showing general economic trends and world financial conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still firm as the pair continues to stay above important support levels, showing continued bullish momentum. The price continues to stay above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming short-term strength. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying above 50 indicates continued buying pressure. The next important level of resistance is at 1.4450, a psychological level, with a breach likely to push the pair to higher levels. On the downside, support currently lies near the nine-day EMA at 1.4286, and a breach below this may signal a change in momentum. Overall, technical indicators reflect an upward bias, but traders should watch key levels for possible trend reversals. FORECAST USD/CAD’s bearish momentum is still intact, and the pair is looking towards the crucial resistance of 1.4450. A sustained crossover above this psychological level can open the doors towards higher levels, and the next big target is 1.4793, a level witnessed as recently as March 2003. The upward trend is bolstered by technicals and solid market sentiment, and the U.S. currency has been firm amid economic stability. If the buying pressure persists, USD/CAD may continue to appreciate as investors continue to be bullish on the pair’s long-term outlook. On the bearish side, any inability to move above 1.4450 may initiate a corrective pullback, taking the pair to near-term support at 1.4286. A clear break below this level may undermine bullish momentum and take USD/CAD to the two-month low of 1.4151. Further downside pressure can develop if bearish sentiment intensifies, with the pair likely testing the three-month low of 1.3927. Market uncertainties, changing risk appetite, and external economic factors may play a role in reversing the situation, making these support levels very important

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