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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Grapples with Tariff Threats, Economic Woes, and Supply Disruptions

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  • February 28, 2025
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WTI crude oil is under pressure at about $69.90 a barrel as concerns over world economic growth and demand for fuel dwarf supply threats. The market grapples with several headwinds, ranging from the United States imposing a 10% tariff on March 4 for Canadian energy imports, a recession in the United States with Q4 GDP declining to 2.3%, and increasing jobless claims. At the same time, oil prices experienced a short-term boost as President Trump canceled Chevron’s right to do business in Venezuela, potentially upsetting a large section of the country’s oil exports. Furthermore, OPEC+ is considering its production strategy with heightened geopolitical uncertainty, putting the market on its toes as investors wait for crucial economic indicators and policy announcements. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI lags at $69.90 amid economic slowdown concerns and U.S. tariff threats on market sentiment, despite fleeting price spikes. • A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 poses supply disruption risks and the risk of Canadian retaliatory actions. • Trump’s cancellation of Chevron’s Venezuela license puts oil exports at risk, which could influence global supply trends and trigger new talks with PDVSA. • OPEC+ considers its April production plan in the face of new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, creating additional market uncertainty. WTI crude oil continues to struggle, trading at about $69.90 per barrel, as global economic worries and U.S. tariff threats dampen market sentiment. The Biden administration’s move to apply a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 creates supply chain disruption concerns and possible retaliatory measures. In the meantime, oil prices briefly surged after President Trump cancelled Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, an action that would dislocate more than 25% of Venezuela’s oil exports. Contributing to volatility in the markets, OPEC+ still hasn’t decided on its April production plan amidst new U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, leaving market players uncertain about forthcoming supply levels. As the U.S. economy is already reflecting slowdown growth and growing jobless claims, investors are now looking forward to the coming PCE price index report, a leading indicator of inflation and upcoming Federal Reserve policy action. WTI crude oil trades at $69.90 as economic slowdown concerns, US tariff risks, and supply disruptions hold prices in check. Market volatility is supported by the Chevron-Venezuela license cancellation and OPEC+ policy uncertainty, keeping investors nervous. • WTI remains low around $69.90 per barrel as economic slowdown risks and supply-demand weak fuel burden the market. • The U.S. will slap a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4, causing concern over supply disruptions and trade tensions. • Trump withdrew Chevron’s license to do business in Venezuela, putting more than 25% of the nation’s oil exports at risk and affecting global supply. • Q4 GDP growth fell to 2.3%, from 3.1% in Q3, with increasing jobless claims signaling possible weakness in the labor market. • In spite of bearishness, oil prices jumped more than 2% on supply fears after the Chevron-Venezuela news. • OPEC+ remains undecided on its April production plan with new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia adding to market uncertainty. • Traders are waiting for the PCE price index report, the Federal Reserve’s most important inflation indicator, for clues on possible policy changes. WTI crude oil is increasingly uncertain with geopolitical tensions and policy changes dictating the energy market. The U.S. government’s imposition of a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports from March 4 has created uncertainty around supply chain stability and possible trade wars. At the same time, President Trump’s action to rescind Chevron’s operating license in Venezuela brings even more complexity since it has the potential to blow up a sizable portion of Venezuela’s oil exports. These incidents have put energy traders and market participants waiting closely for further policy announcements and possible long-term effect on world oil dynamics. WTI Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView At the same time, OPEC+ is considering its April production plan against the backdrop of continued geopolitical changes and new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The organization has a tricky balancing act to perform between keeping production steady and reacting to possible supply disruptions. Concerns about economic growth, inflationary pressures, and labor market developments also continue to shape investor attitudes. While policymakers and businesspeople confront these difficulties, the issue is how the world’s energy policies will change to accommodate new economic and political realities. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is at present trading just below the $70.00 psychological level, with resistance near $71.50 and support near $68.50. The price continues to trade below major moving averages, which reflects bearish short-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands just above the neutral zone, indicating indecisiveness from traders. A breakout above $71.50 might indicate further upside potential, and a fall below $68.50 can result in sustained losses. Volume analysis indicates diminishing buying interest, supporting the bearish mood in the market. Traders are observing closely for confirmation of a breakout or consolidation. FORECAST WTI crude oil is able to remain above the $70.00 level and breaches the crucial resistance at $71.50, it may initiate a bullish trend. A consistent rally above this level might force prices towards the next resistance at $73.00, where the buying interest may take even more control. Furthermore, if OPEC+ chooses to cut or keep output steady, supply worries might intensify and push prices upward. Upbeat economic news, softening inflation, or a recovery in worldwide fuel demand could also underpin a near-term crude oil price uptrend.  WTI cannot hold the $70.00 mark and goes below $68.50, selling pressure can increase, and prices can move towards the next support level at $66.00. Increasing worries about world economic growth, soft demand signals, and the effect of U.S. tariffs on oil imports may also pressure oil prices further. Further, any surprising rise in crude oil stocks or a firm U.S. currency could contribute to bearishness, raising the probability of a more acute fall in WTI prices.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Under Pressure: Trump Tariff Threats Shake Eurozone Markets

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  • February 27, 2025
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EUR/USD is under fresh pressure as the US’s former President Donald Trump once again threatens to slap 25% tariffs on Eurozone automobiles and other imports, driving the currency pair close to 1.0460. The US Dollar becomes a safe-haven in the face of rising trade tensions, though hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate cut cap its upside. While political instability in Germany and the weak economic performance in the Eurozone contribute to the woes of the Euro, investors now wait with bated breath for critical economic releases such as the US PCE inflation and initial HICP from the major Eurozone economies, which may also continue to sway sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • The proposal by the US President to apply 25% tariffs on cars in the Eurozone is worrying about trade tensions and regional economic growth. • Safe-haven appetite increases the USD, but hope for a June Federal Reserve rate cut may prevent its further gain. • The release of Friday’s preliminary HICP inflation figures in Germany, France, and Italy will inform expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s forthcoming monetary policy. • US Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and the PCE inflation report are carefully followed by investors as gauges for the Fed’s future policy. EUR/USD continues to come under pressure as Trump’s fresh tariff threats against Eurozone imports add to trade tensions, increasing the safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Nevertheless, anticipation of a June Federal Reserve rate cut caps the greenback’s gains. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding Germany’s coalition government and structural economic issues also continue to put pressure on the Euro. Investors shift their attention to important economic indicators, such as the US PCE inflation report and initial HICP inflation readings from major Eurozone economies, which will be instrumental in determining market mood and the European Central Bank’s monetary policy stance. EUR/USD falters as Trump’s threats of tariffs on the Eurozone increase the US Dollar’s safe-haven demand. Attention turns to US PCE inflation and Eurozone HICP data, which will shape the Federal Reserve and ECB’s monetary policy direction. • The US President intends to apply 25% tariffs to Eurozone vehicles, escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty. • The pair declines close to 1.0460, dragged down by tariff concerns and deteriorating Eurozone economic conditions. • Safe-haven demand for the USD grows but is tempered by expectations of a June Fed rate cut that curb its potential. • Continuity of coalition government talks exacerbates the Euro’s woes and economic uncertainty. • German, French, and Italian HICP inflation prints on the way, which will guide ECB monetary policy expectations. • Durable Goods Orders and PCE inflation headlines will steer Fed rate views. • EUR/USD is getting major support at 1.0440, with a resistance level of 1.0630, while RSI indicates declining bullish momentum. EUR/USD is under pressure as trade tensions between the US and Eurozone rise following the fresh threats by former US President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on European car imports. This has raised fears regarding the economic blow for the Eurozone, which is already reeling under poor demand and sluggish growth. In turn, a European Commission official threatened severe retaliatory action against any unwarranted trade restrictions. At the same time, political instability in Germany contributes to the region’s instability, with coalition talks prolonging economic uncertainty. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has called on the new German government to tackle structural vulnerabilities to enhance the country’s competitiveness. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the US, market participants are anxiously awaiting economic indicators that would determine the next policy action from the Federal Reserve. Although the US Dollar has strengthened on account of its safe-haven demand, hopes for a Fed rate cut in June still dominate sentiment. Latest economic data point to a moderation in US service sector growth and dipping consumer confidence, supporting expectations of monetary easing. While that is happening, investors are also waiting for crucial inflation readings such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is an important gauge of the Fed’s inflation expectations. Traders in the Eurozone are also watching out for the German, French, and Italian inflation data in the coming days, which will help decide the direction of European Central Bank’s future monetary policy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to trade in a narrow band around 1.0500, with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) acting as solid support around 1.0440. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) floats below the 60.00 mark, showing no strong bullish momentum. A break above this level could instigate further bullish potential. On the negative side, the February 10 low of 1.0285 serves as a crucial support level, and resistance is at the December 6 high of 1.0630. A move above this resistance might solidify the position of the Euro, while a fall below the crucial support levels might accelerate selling pressure. FORECAST In case market sentiment turns positive for risk assets, EUR/USD might recover. A less firm US inflation reading, specifically a softer-than-anticipated PCE Price Index, might support the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, which would put downward pressure on the US Dollar. And if Eurozone inflation readings surprise to the upside, it might make the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to hold off on rate cuts even stronger, which would be bullish for the Euro. Any settlement or relief in trade tensions between the US and Eurozone can also give a boost to EUR/USD. A breakout above the crucial resistance of 1.0630 can pave the way for further advances. Conversely, ongoing trade uncertainty due to Trump’s tariff threats can also bear down heavily on the Euro, as the Eurozone economy is still fragile. Any indication of economic fragility in Germany, particularly from future inflation readings or coalition government instability, would also have a further bearish effect on sentiment towards the Euro. If US economic figures remain robust, corroborating the Fed’s conservatism in reducing interest rates, then the US Dollar could gain further support, driving EUR/USD down. A fall below the

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Under Pressure: Soft Economic Data and Trade Tensions Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • February 27, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is under pressure today due to weak economic data, increasing US-China trade tensions, and a robust US Dollar. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly, which caused concerns regarding economic growth, and the Reserve Bank of Australia continues to be guarded on rate cuts in the future. Global trade tensions, such as new US tariffs and China restrictions, provide additional downside risks to the AUD. Technicals are bearish and point to 0.6300 as the key support. But a change in market mood or weaker US economic data might prompt a short-term recovery. Traders will watch closely for economic releases and policy announcements for further guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • The surprise 0.2% decline in Private Capital Expenditure and soft CPI readings add to doubts over the economic resilience and growth forecasts of Australia. • The USD remains on the rise amidst risk-off sentiment, fueled by robust economic performance, trade policy changes, and increasingly hawkish Fed tone. • Rising US-China tensions surrounding trade, tariff escalations, and heightened chip export restraints may additionally put more pressure on the Australian Dollar given the dependence of Australian trade on China. • AUD/USD retests key support at 0.6300. A failure can see it test 0.6087, whereas for recovery, it needs to breach resistance at 0.6329. The Australian Dollar remains pressured by dovish domestic economic indicators and a worsening US-China trade tensions risk souring sentiment in the markets. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure decreased unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, disappointing expectations of an 0.8% gain, while also failing to contain consumer inflation expectations. At the same time, the US Dollar keeps rising under risk-off sentiment, supported by economic strength and hardening trade measures in the Trump administration. As the AUD/USD currency pair is about 0.6300 support level, additional downside risks arise should trade war tensions escalate or risk mood turn negative. Traders look ahead to future economic releases and policy news for added guidance. The Australian Dollar depreciates as weak economic news and growing US-China trade tensions bear down on mood. The AUD/USD currency pair remains close to 0.6300 support, subject to downside pressures with a firm US Dollar. Market players watch for future policy changes and global economic trends for further guidance. • Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.2% in Q4 2024, marking below-forecast 0.8% growth, reflecting economic slowdown fears. • The USD is still strong as risk-off conditions prevail, fueled by a robust economy, hawkish Fed stance, and trade policy changes. • Heightened US-China trade tensions, such as more stringent tariff policy and the export restriction of chips, elevate uncertainty over the Australian Dollar. • The RBA recently slashed interest rates to 4.10% but is wary of further easing, with an eye on inflation and labor markets. • Being Australia’s top trading partner, any China slowdown or policy change, including monetary measures by PBOC, would impact the AUD. • AUD/USD is probing support at pivotal 0.6300, with a possibility of falling to 0.6087 if bearish pressure continues, while resistance is at 0.6329. • Risk aversion, geopolitical factors, and global economic trends will be key factors influencing AUD/USD’s short-term direction. The Australian Dollar is still under pressure as weak economic reports and rising trade tensions in the market generate uncertainty. Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure fell unexpectedly by 0.2% in Q4 2024, below forecasts, sending warning signs of weakening business spending. Furthermore, inflation reports were not up to expectations, displaying lingering economic woes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just lowered interest rates to 4.10% but is still wary of future monetary policy actions. RBA officials have noted that although inflationary pressures will ease, a robust labor market might sustain price growth, leaving future rate cuts in doubt. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Global trade dynamics also contribute to the Australian Dollar’s woes, especially escalating tensions between the US and China. The Trump administration’s strategy to impose tariffs and limit chip exports to China may affect the economy of Australia because it has a robust trading relationship with China. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is actively pumping liquidity into the financial system, which can have an effect on market stability. With the changing global economic landscape, investors are keeping a close eye on how trade policies and central bank actions influence the prospects of the Australian economy and its currency. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is presently under immense bear pressure, with the price fluctuating around the psychological support of 0.6300. The pair is still below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which is a sign of diminishing short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, confirming the bearish perspective. Further breakdown below 0.6300 would take the pair to lower support levels, while recovery would need a strong break above the 14-day EMA at 0.6323 and the nine-day EMA at 0.6329 to resume bullish momentum. The traders will keenly watch these levels for trend reversals in the next few sessions. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains under downside pressure with weak domestic economic statistics and external trade uncertainty bearing down on sentiment. If bearish pressures continue, AUD/USD may drop below the important 0.6300 support level with potential testing of lower levels around 0.6200 or even 0.6087 in the short term. Increased global trade deterioration, especially escalating US-China tensions, will put additional pressure on the currency. Furthermore, market unease regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s conservative approach to monetary easing could restrain investor sentiment, further contributing to the bearish pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, if market sentiment turns optimistic, AUD/USD might experience a short-term bounce, especially if risk appetite picks up or US economic news disappoints, causing a weaker US Dollar. A breakout above near-term resistance levels of 0.6323 (14-day EMA) and 0.6329 (nine-day EMA) would indicate a possible recovery. If the bullish momentum picks up, the pair would try to recapture the recent high of 0.6408. But continued upside action will heavily rely on the improvement in Australian economic data

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Floats Close to Weekly Lows Despite Increasing US Bond Yields and Trade Risk

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  • February 27, 2025
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Gold prices are under strain, trading close to a weekly low of less than $2,900 as increasing US Treasury bond yields strengthen the US Dollar. A minor USD rebound combined with a good equity market mood has dented demand for the safe-haven metal. Nonetheless, volatility regarding US President Donald Trump’s tariff strategy and persisting concerns about the ongoing trade war lends some support to XAU/USD. While in the meantime hopes for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts based on indications that the US economy is slowing offer a cap to gold losses, market participants look to future US economic releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, the PCE Price Index, for more market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher US Treasury bond yields are favoring the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices and capping upside moves. • Doubts surrounding President Trump’s plans on tariffs, especially on imports from the EU, Mexico, and Canada, can affect safe-haven demand for gold. • Market expectations of more Fed rate cuts due to weakening US economic growth can act as a floor to gold, capping its downside. • Major releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will provide new information about economic conditions and gold price action. Gold prices are still volatile as investors closely watch major economic and geopolitical events. The increasing US Treasury bond yields have supported the US Dollar, putting downward pressure on the precious metal. In the meantime, uncertainty regarding President Trump’s tariffs strategies, particularly possible levies on European goods, persists and continues to move markets. Regardless of these bearish elements, hopes for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts as evidenced by slowing US growth could offer some purchasing pressure support for gold. Further, near-term US economic data releases such as Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will be instrumental in deciding the future direction for XAU/USD. Gold prices remain under pressure as rising US bond yields strengthen the US Dollar, weighing on the metal. Uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans and expectations of Fed rate cuts may influence price movements. Key US economic data, including Q4 GDP and the PCE Price Index, will provide further direction. • XAU/USD trades below $2,900, pressured by rising US bond yields and a stronger US Dollar. • A US Treasury yield rally strengthens the USD, putting downward pressure on gold prices. • New tariffs on EU imports and Mexican and Canadian tariff delays instill market uncertainty, affecting gold demand. • Market speculation of additional Fed rate cuts in a slowing US economy can be bullish for gold. • Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will be key drivers of short-term gold price action. • The key support is at $2,888, and a break below $2,860 could initiate further weakness down to $2,800. • A breakout above $2,920 may see selling pressure around $2,930, but persistent strength can drive gold up to $2,950-$2,955 resistance. Gold prices continue to be shaped by general economic and geopolitical conditions as investors weigh the effects of increasing US bond yields and trade tensions. The rising US Dollar, bolstered by a recovery in Treasury yields, continues to pressure the precious metal. But worries over President Trump’s tariff policies, including possible tariffs on European imports and ongoing trade tensions with Mexico and Canada, foster an environment of uncertainty. These geopolitical trends tend to propel safe-haven demand, making gold still a part of investors’ investment portfolios. Further Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, fueled by the indications of an economic growth slowdown, may also influence gold’s long-term attractiveness. GOLD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Market participants are now keenly observing the significant US economic data releases that may further indicate the economic outlook. Data releases like Q4 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and the PCE Price Index will assist in assessing the US economy’s strength and impact investor mood. Further guidance on the central bank’s future monetary policy may also be provided by speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Against these events, gold continues to be an asset of interest, with investors weighing its safe-haven attraction against changing macroeconomic fundamentals. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices are immediately supported at the $2,888 level, with further downside risk to the $2,860-$2,855 area if bearish momentum continues. A break below this area would increase selling pressure, driving prices towards the $2,834 level and potentially the psychological $2,800 level. To the upside, resistance is found near the $2,920 level, with further selling pressure anticipated around the $2,930 area. A continued breakout above this barrier may set the stage for additional gains towards the $2,950-$2,955 resistance zone, which is the record high achieved earlier this week. The next direction will be closely monitored by traders through price action at these significant levels. FORECAST Gold prices might experience increased downward pressure in the near term on account of a rising US Dollar and an increase in Treasury bond yields. As the USD recovers from multi-month lows, investor psychology can be inclined towards riskier assets, decreasing demand for the safe-haven metal. Further, a bullish sentiment in equity markets and confusion over US tariff policies can be adding to short-term selling pressure. If bearish momentum grows, gold may test lower supports at $2,860, with further downside potential towards $2,834 or even $2,800. On the plus side, gold still has recovery potential if macroeconomic conditions become favorable to it. Rising hopes of cuts in Federal Reserve rates, underpinned by evidence of declining US economic growth, may raise gold demand since lower interest rates lower the opportunity cost of carrying non-yielding assets. Apart from that, geopolitical tensions in the form of trade uncertainties with regards to President Trump’s policy of tariffs might underpin safe-haven purchasing. If gold is able to overcome the $2,920 resistance level, it could gain more momentum towards the $2,950-$2,955 zone, with the possibility of testing new highs if positive sentiment continues to build.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Bulls Target 1.4450 as Momentum Builds

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  • February 27, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair maintains its upward momentum, moving above 1.4350 and targeting the important psychological resistance of 1.4450. Technicals such as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above 50 and the pair above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) validate a building short-term trend. A decisive breach above 1.4450 would set the stage for a retest of the 1.4793 level, last touched in March 2003. On the downside, initial support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.4286, and a breach below this would set the stage for a more significant correction towards the two-month low of 1.4151. KEY LOOKOUTS • USD/CAD continues in an uptrend, staying above major EMAs and boosted by RSI above 50, indicating potential extension to 1.4450 resistance. • A strong break above the psychological level of 1.4450 has the potential to drive the pair to 1.4793, last visited in March 2003. • Near-term support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.4286, with a breakdown below potentially prompting a move towards the two-month low of 1.4151. • A failure to maintain gains above 1.4450 may erode bullish pressure, triggering a possible correction to the three-month low of 1.3927. The USD/CAD currency pair remains in firm bullish mode on the back of its standing above dominant moving averages and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. The near-term attention is at the psychological resistance level of 1.4450, with a clean break seen taking the pair up towards the 1.4793 level last recorded in March 2003. On the downside, the nine-day EMA level of 1.4286 acts as the first point of support, followed by the 14-day EMA level of 1.4284. A decline below these levels may undermine the short-term bullish perspective and direct the pair to the two-month low of 1.4151. The traders should be careful of a possible pullback if the pair is unable to hold above 1.4450, as it can create a more serious correction towards the three-month low of 1.3927. USD/CAD continues to stay bullish, trading above important EMAs and bolstered by an RSI reading above 50. A break above 1.4450 would drive the pair towards 1.4793, and support at 1.4286 is important to avoid a further pullback. • USD/CAD continues its winning streak, trading above important EMAs and holding a strong short-term bullish bias. • The psychological level of importance at 1.4450 is the next target, with a break higher potentially paving the way to 1.4793. • The nine-day EMA at 1.4286 is the nearest support, closely followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.4284. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above 50, supporting the bullish outlook and potential for further gains. • A break above 1.4450 may cause a retest of the 1.4793 level, last seen in March 2003. • Failure of the pair to hold above 1.4450 may initiate a corrective decline to the two-month low of 1.4151. • A more pronounced fall may test the three-month low of 1.3927, which is still a major support level for the long-term trend. The USD/CAD currency pair remains to be of much interest as market forces determine its direction. Releases of economic data, interest rate measures, and international trade patterns are key to determining the performance of the currency pair. Economic stability and monetary policy decisions drive the strength of the U.S. dollar and influence its exchange rate with respect to the Canadian dollar. Further, Canada’s commodity-driven economy, relying heavily on energy exports such as oil, watches its currency waver with changes in the trend of the energy markets. This external impact affects USD/CAD’s trajectory and has USD/CAD under keen observation from traders and investors alike. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Political developments and domestic economic reports in both nations contribute further to the movement of USD/CAD. Market mood, investor sentiment, and risk appetite drive changes in demand for the Canadian and U.S. currencies. The bilateral trade relations between the two countries also contribute to the dynamics, with alterations in tariffs, free trade agreements, or cross-border investments affecting exchange rates. Moreover, employment figures, inflation readings, and consumption spending patterns of the U.S. and Canada indicate economic wellness, driving market expectations. Consequently, USD/CAD is still a major pair in the foreign exchange market, showing general economic trends and world financial conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still firm as the pair continues to stay above important support levels, showing continued bullish momentum. The price continues to stay above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming short-term strength. Also, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying above 50 indicates continued buying pressure. The next important level of resistance is at 1.4450, a psychological level, with a breach likely to push the pair to higher levels. On the downside, support currently lies near the nine-day EMA at 1.4286, and a breach below this may signal a change in momentum. Overall, technical indicators reflect an upward bias, but traders should watch key levels for possible trend reversals. FORECAST USD/CAD’s bearish momentum is still intact, and the pair is looking towards the crucial resistance of 1.4450. A sustained crossover above this psychological level can open the doors towards higher levels, and the next big target is 1.4793, a level witnessed as recently as March 2003. The upward trend is bolstered by technicals and solid market sentiment, and the U.S. currency has been firm amid economic stability. If the buying pressure persists, USD/CAD may continue to appreciate as investors continue to be bullish on the pair’s long-term outlook. On the bearish side, any inability to move above 1.4450 may initiate a corrective pullback, taking the pair to near-term support at 1.4286. A clear break below this level may undermine bullish momentum and take USD/CAD to the two-month low of 1.4151. Further downside pressure can develop if bearish sentiment intensifies, with the pair likely testing the three-month low of 1.3927. Market uncertainties, changing risk appetite, and external economic factors may play a role in reversing the situation, making these support levels very important

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Falls Below $90,000: Liquidations Mount as Market Responds to Bybit Hack

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  • February 25, 2025
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Bitcoin’s price is down below $90,000, wrapping up its consolidation phase and causing epic liquidations in the crypto market. In the last 24 hours, $1.34 billion of liquidations erased 367,500 traders, with the largest individual order at $20.80 million on Binance. The fall comes in the wake of a security incident at Bybit, which saw the exchange lose about $2 billion worth of BTC from its coffers. Uncertainty in the markets and mounting selling pressure have pushed Bitcoin to a low of $88,200, with analysts issuing warnings that additional losses could send BTC to the $85,000 support point. But in the event that sentiment improves, Bitcoin can try to regain the $100,000 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • BTC drops to $88,200, a steep 4.89% drop and ending its prolonged consolidation, worrying investors. • More than $1.34 billion in liquidations erased 367,500 traders, with the biggest single order of $20.80 million on Binance, boosting selling pressure. • Bybit lost approximately $2 billion in BTC from reserves as a result of a security breach, resulting in increased investor fears and market withdrawals. • Bearish momentum in Bitcoin persists, with RSI approaching oversold levels. Further decline can test $85,000, and a bounce can test $100,000. Bitcoin’s sudden drop below $90,000 has caused enormous liquidations, erasing 367,500 traders and a total of $1.34 billion in losses. The downturn in the market comes after a security hack at Bybit that saw a loss of $2 billion in BTC reserves, instilling uncertainty and investor withdrawals. The largest volume liquidation order of $20.80 million happened on Binance, contributing to the selling wave. With Bitcoin’s drop to $88,200 and its RSI close to oversold, experts indicate that BTC may challenge the $85,000 support level if the bearish trend continues. The price, however, can still rebound and recover towards the $100,000 psychological level. Bitcoin’s price fell below $90,000, initiating $1.34 billion worth of liquidations and eliminating 367,500 traders. A $2 billion BTC loss by Bybit reserves created market uncertainty. If the bearish strength prevails, BTC might challenge $85,000, while a reversal could reach $100,000. • BTC falls to $88,200, putting an end to its extended consolidation period and causing major market volatility. • More than $1.34 billion worth of liquidations erased 367,500 traders in 24 hours, with the single biggest order valued at $20.80 million on Binance. • Bybit lost about $2 billion worth of BTC reserves following a security breach, and this triggered heightened investor withdrawals and market volatility. • The breach and market anxiety prompted a wide sell-off, driving Bitcoin to lower support levels and enhancing downward momentum. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 30, which indicates strong bearish momentum and a possible further price drop. • Experts warn that Bitcoin may test the $85,000 level if the bearish trend persists, fuelling fears of further corrections. • If Bitcoin recovers, it may retest its $100,000 psychological level, so investor sentiment will be the key to what happens next. Bitcoin’s recent decline below $90,000 has caused shockwaves in the cryptocurrency space, spawning across-the-board liquidations and jitters among investors. The unexpected dip follows a security hack at Bybit, where up to $2 billion worth of BTC reserves were stolen, leading the majority of users to withdraw their funds. The incident has raised eyebrows regarding the security of centralized exchanges and the need for self-custodial wallets. The cryptocurrency community is paying close attention to how exchanges react to such incidents, as investor sentiment is important in keeping the market stable.  BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The sell-off has also affected traders, with more than $1.34 billion worth of liquidations taking place within 24 hours, hitting 367,500 traders. Market sentiment has been dented, as fear and uncertainty spread after the Bybit incident. Though Bitcoin has experienced similar declines in the past, the situation now accentuates the increasing difficulty of securing digital assets. In the backdrop, talk of decentralized finance (DeFi) and self-custody is gaining traction as investors look for safer options to safeguard their investments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin’s recent price action indicates robust bearish momentum, with the price falling below the important psychological level of $90,000. The collapse of this level precipitated massive liquidations, indicating rising selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen to 30, close to oversold levels, which means that BTC may be in need of a short-term rebound. But the inability to stay above the $94,000 support level indicates that Bitcoin may test lower support levels, with $85,000 becoming a key level to monitor. On the positive side, a bounce above $91,500 might be a sign of a reversal but with stubborn resistance at $94,000 and $100,000 that could cap the upside action. Traders are taking keen interest in volume action and market sentiment to determine if Bitcoin will bounce back into its bullish trend or maintain its downside correction. FORECAST Bitcoin’s recent fall below $90,000 is a sign of sustained selling, with prospects of further downward action. The breakdown of the crucial support levels has added bearish momentum, and if BTC cannot hold up above $88,000, it might prolong its correction down to $85,000. Market sentiment is still weak courtesy of the Bybit security breach, which has instilled fear among investors. Also, liquidation figures indicate that investors are selling their positions, which further adds to the negative momentum. If selling persists, Bitcoin could struggle to establish firm support, paving the way for a potential retest of lower levels. Bitcoin has proven to be resilient in the past in bouncing back from market dips. If investors step in and push BTC above $91,500, it can regain its bullish trend, with a possible retest of the $94,000 resistance level. A break above this range could unleash more gains, with the psychological $100,000 level being the next key resistance. Moreover, if RSI stays in oversold levels for a long time, a relief rally may happen, drawing buyers who seek cheap entry points. Institutional demand and overall

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Retreats On Profit-Taking, But Bullish Momentum Intact

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  • February 25, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its intraday drop from a record high, falling to the $2,929 area as investors take profits. Yet, worries about US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts still support the precious metal. In spite of a modest recovery in the US Dollar, softer macroeconomic data and gold-backed ETF inflows support the bullish view. Short-term consolidation or a mild pullback is probable, but the general direction is higher, with robust support at $2,920-$2,915. Market participants now look to important US economic releases and FOMC speeches for further cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Robust support around $2,920-$2,915 may see dip buyers, capping further losses. • FOMC commentary and US economic reports could issue new directional impulses for XAU/USD. • The levels of $2,900 and $2,880 serve as pivotal support zones, while an upward break over recent highs will trigger additional strength. Price of gold remains under the microscope as it pullbacks from fresh record highs through profit-taking but the overall upward trend remains very much in tact. Market sentiment is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and concerns over US trade policies, which continue to support demand for the safe-haven metal. Strong technical support near the $2,920-$2,915 zone may attract dip buyers, preventing deeper losses. Meanwhile, upcoming US economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index and PCE Price Index, along with FOMC speeches, could influence the next move in XAU/USD. Traders are on guard, monitoring major support and resistance levels for additional price action. Gold price pulls back from highs on profit-taking, yet Fed rate cut expectations and fear of trade war ensure bullish drive continues. Major support around $2,920-$2,915 would catch dip buyers, though future US economic releases may dictate future price action. • Gold price pulls back from highs as traders take profits, though overall bullish trend continues. • Bets on additional Federal Reserve rate cuts underpin the non-yielding bullion, capping deeper losses. • US President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs increase economic uncertainty, enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Firm buying interest anticipated in the $2,920-$2,915 area, followed by $2,900 and $2,880 as key downside levels. • A modest recovery in the US Dollar places some pressure on gold, but softer macroeconomic data maintains bullish sentiment. • Investors look to US Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Manufacturing Index, and PCE Price Index for new market signals. • Latest numbers reflect the highest weekly inflow in physically backed gold ETFs since March 2022, reflecting gold’s high demand. Investors are focusing on gold because market mood is driven by policy choices and economic uncertainties. Profit-taking saw some back-tracking from new highs, though, but the deeper drivers in terms of concern around trade war risks and the possibility of Fed rate cuts have ensured its use as a haven asset remains supported. With potential escalations on US President Donald Trump’s tariffs being a danger signal for international markets, market players are all ears for their implications. Furthermore, the most recent economic indicators indicate a slowdown, further boosting the demand for gold as an economic stability hedge. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Investor demand for gold-backed ETFs has also increased, with the biggest weekly inflow since March 2022, indicating ongoing confidence in the metal. In the meantime, Federal Reserve policymakers are still cautious on future rate moves, highlighting the requirement for additional economic clarity before additional cuts. As inflation reports and consumer confidence data are revealed, gold is still a favored asset in times of market uncertainty. Investors and traders are still watching geopolitical events and economic data, keeping gold on their radar as a long-term volatility hedge. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a consolidation phase after hitting all-time highs, with solid support at the $2,920-$2,915 area. The price action indicates that the recent dip is actually a temporary correction and not a trend reversal, as the overall bullish momentum is still intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the overbought area, suggesting possible short-term consolidation before another move upward. If gold holds support at $2,900, it may draw new buying interest, while a clean break below this level could set the stage for further losses to the $2,880-$2,855 area. Resistance is close to recent highs, and a breakout above those levels could set the stage for additional gains. Traders will be watching closely for upcoming US economic data and Fed commentary for possible direction. FORECAST Gold’s bullish impulse continues to ride high, supported by hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and global economic unrest keeping the safe-haven commodity buoyant. Should market sentiment be in the direction of yet more monetary policy loosening, gold may re-ignite its buying interest with prices potentially approaching new highs. A break sustained above recent tops may set up for more strength, with fund demand and ETF inflows also serving as supplementary drivers. Any indication of heightened economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions would help further boost the appeal of gold, maintaining the bearish trend intact. Downside, gold could witness occasional pullbacks on account of profit-taking and short-term US Dollar strength. In case of failure of key supports around levels of $2,920-$2,915, a more significant correction towards the levels of $2,900 and $2,880 is possible. Strong economic reports or a hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials may also put pressure on gold, causing short-term losses. As long as the overall trend is positive, however, dips will tend to draw in new buyers, capping deeper losses and supporting gold’s long-term trend.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Major Resistance Levels and Market Trends In the Wake of Political Stability in Germany

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  • February 25, 2025
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EUR/USD is gaining momentum around 1.0470 in the Asian session on the back of renewed political stability in Germany following the election win of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance. Nevertheless, the pair is still bearish below the 100-period EMA, with major resistance at 1.0525-1.0530. A breakout above this level might trigger more gains towards 1.0630 and higher, while risks of a decline exist at 1.0400, with possible falls towards 1.0295 and 1.0210. Market sentiment is still cautious, with technical analysis indicating a mix of signals, making the 1.0500 level the key battleground for traders. KEY LOOKOUTS           • EUR/USD has key resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout potentially giving way to further gains towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The duo finds initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially taking it down to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish picture, while the RSI level of 55.50 indicates possible upside action. • The CDU/CSU election win in Germany boosts EUR sentiment, but investor attention is still on major technical levels and economic indicators for further direction. EUR/USD is still at a crucial point, trading around 1.0470, as the market weighs important technical and political considerations. The pair is under significant resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and a break higher could unlock the way to 1.0630 and 1.0777. Support on the downside is at 1.0400, with potential further losses towards 1.0295 and 1.0210 if selling gains momentum. The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish stance, while RSI at 55.50 indicates some upside potential. The CDU/CSU election win by Germany has also brought temporary stability to the Euro, but market sentiment is still wary, with the market closely observing economic data and global risk trends. EUR/USD remains close to 1.0470, with important resistance seen at 1.0525-1.0530 and support near 1.0400. The 100-period EMA remains bearish in its outlook, although the RSI indicates potential upside. Political stability in Germany favors the Euro but market sentiment is cautious. • EUR/USD is confronted by strong resistance near 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout having the potential to move the pair towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The pair meets initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially pushing to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish direction, limiting upside. • The 14-day RSI at 55.50 indicates probable upside momentum, subject to the ongoing bearish trend. • Germany’s CDU/CSU election success has brought temporary stability to the Euro, allowing for modest gains. • A breakdown below the lower band of 1.0295 could provoke further losses, with the upper band around 1.0530 serving as resistance. • Market participants are keeping a close eye on economic indicators and global risk factors for further guidance. EUR/USD currency pair is witnessing a change in market mood as political stability is back in Germany. The recent election win of the CDU/CSU coalition has allayed fears of extended political uncertainty, sending confidence in the Euro higher. Investors are now closely watching how this leadership transition will impact economic policies, trade relations, and fiscal strategies. With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, its political direction plays a crucial role in shaping the broader European financial landscape. The market remains attentive to upcoming policy decisions that could influence investor confidence and economic growth. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Outside of politics, trends in global economics and macroeconomic events still dictate EUR/USD direction. Inflation rates, central bank actions, and geopolitical tensions are still major determinants of market sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and economic releases will still be important variables in dictating the pair’s direction in the future. Foremost, ongoing debates on global trade, energy prices, and economic recovery after the pandemic provide another dimension of uncertainty. As investors ponder these issues, market players take a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating better clarity on both regional and world economic situations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a tentative area, as major indicators will determine its immediate direction. The pair is hovering below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supporting a bearish attitude. Yet, Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 55.50 indicates moderate bullish pressure, and hopes for a move higher still linger. The Bollinger Bands signal possible volatility, the higher band serving as resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and the lower band at 1.0295 acting as support. A clean break above resistance would initiate further advances, while below support would increase selling pressure. Traders are keeping close watch at these levels for confirmation on the direction of the next trend. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to cross above the crucial resistance area of 1.0525-1.0530, bullish pressure may intensify, driving the pair to even higher levels. A continued breakout above this range can draw new buying interest, likely propelling prices to 1.0630, a key level of resistance in December 2024. Still higher, a rally could continue to 1.0777, a level that was recently tested in August 2024. Improved market sentiment, better Eurozone economic statistics, or a more dovish bias from the U.S. Federal Reserve could still contribute to uptrend momentum in the pair. EUR/USD cannot stay above the 1.0400 psychological level support, and selling pressure may gain strength to cause more declines. Breaking below this psychological level may lay the ground for declines to the lower Bollinger Band at 1.0295, with an even deeper fall targeting 1.0210, the early February 2024 low. Bearishness can be triggered by more robust U.S. economic reports, a dovish Federal Reserve, or risk aversion across markets. In this situation, investors might rush to safe-haven assets, further stressing the Euro.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation, Weak Demand, and Correction Risks Ahead

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  • February 22, 2025
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Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $94,000 and $100,000, with weakening institutional demand reflected in $489.60 million of ETF outflows and decreasing network activity, while technical indicators like a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential upside if BTC can break above $100,000—yet muted RSI momentum and upcoming FTX repayments highlight prevailing market uncertainty, and CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may experience further corrections down to $86,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 in the face of large ETF redemptions and softening institutional buying, which presents a tenuous price setting for risk-averse traders. • A bullish MACD crossover presents possible upside momentum in case Bitcoin crosses $100,000, but soft RSI and low network activity continue to increase risk worries. • Deadbeat FTX repayments are creating market uncertainty, as smaller creditor payments trigger nervousness among investors while waiting for larger payment schedules beginning on May 30. • CryptoQuant’s report cautions that in the absence of better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation might fail, potentially dropping prices to support levels at $86,000. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 as institutional appetite falters, with ETF redemptions worth $489.60 million supporting weak market conditions. A bullish MACD crossover suggests possible uptrend momentum if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, though muted RSI readings and low network activity hint at continued market conservatism. CryptoQuant cautions that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to support levels around $86,000, with FTX repayment uncertainties providing additional investor jitters. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 on weak institutional buying and heavy ETF outflows. A bullish MACD crossover indicates upward momentum, but muted RSI and low network activity call for caution. CryptoQuant advises that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin can fall to support levels around $86,000. •  Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February. •  US Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate net withdrawals of $489.60 million through Thursday. •  CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to about $86,000. •  Institutional demand is declining, contributing to the present delicate market conditions. •  Deceased FTX payments have brought further uncertainty, with smaller creditors already being paid. •  A bullish MACD crossover indicates possible upward momentum in case Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier. •  Slowing network activity and multi-month low volatility indicate investor caution. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000, with dipping institutional demand and high ETF outflows. The sentiment of the current crypto market is further subdued by weak network activity, with the network activity index of Bitcoin being the lowest in a year, reflecting a general loss of interest in the markets. This deteriorating demand, along with persisting fears about liquidity, is keeping investors nervous, with some expecting additional price corrections if things do not start looking up. On the other hand, market uncertainty has been compounded by the process of repayment of FTX creditors that has created further uncertainty. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA These trends have resulted in a tentative market environment where aggregate demand seems to be declining. Furthermore, the ongoing exercise of settling creditors by the collapsed FTX exchange has contributed to existing uncertainty among stakeholders. Market players are monitoring these events keenly, as sustained issues with demand and liquidity may have long-term implications for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin technicals imply a guarded accumulation for a possible directional move. The bullish MACD crossover of the daily chart implies a likely surge in momentum in case Bitcoin is able to break through the $100,000 mark, and the RSI staying close to its neutral point of 50 indicates an even tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The consolidation in the $94,000 to $100,000 range indicates a time of balance, with low volatility and moderate volume supporting the idea that a major breakout or breakdown may be on the horizon. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break convincingly above the $100,000 level, the market is likely to find renewed bullish thrust, with upside price action in the direction of the January 30 high of around $106,457. Favorable technical signals like the MACD crossover indicate a probable sustained upside based on growing momentum fueled by optimistic investor sentiment or favorable market developments. If Bitcoin is unable to hold support at the present consolidation level and breaks below $94,000, it may be subject to further price corrections. Further weakening of demand and liquidity conditions, along with uncertainty in the market, might push Bitcoin’s price down to critical support levels around $86,000. This could be worsened by low network usage and continued institutional outflows, which are indicators of a weakening market.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum Price Prediction: SEC’s Interest in Staking May Drive Gigantic Inflows into ETH ETFs

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  • February 21, 2025
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The U.S. SEC’s increased interest in staking crypto might have a serious influence on the price direction of Ethereum and the inflows of ETFs. With the regulatory body accepting 21Shares’ application to include staking within Ethereum ETFs, institutional investors and retail users might find ETH more appealing with its potential for generating yields. Staking is one of Ethereum’s long-held value propositions, and if they get it done, it might usher in an enormous amount of capital inflow, potentially outranking Bitcoin ETFs. Despite trading at $2,740 currently, it is range-bound between $2,500 and $2,850, but a bullish break is likely once it crosses past major resistance areas. Market conditions indicate increasing bullish momentum, yet a powerful stimulus is required to propel Ethereum towards a long-lasting uptrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • If sanctioned, staking would fuel enormous inflows, making Ethereum ETFs more popular and even overtaking Bitcoin ETFs in popularity. • ETH needs to break above the $2,850 resistance level to validate a bullish trend; otherwise, it can stay range-bound or experience sell-offs. • Institutional investors have raised their ETH ETF holdings substantially, indicating faith in Ethereum’s long-term prospects and its worth as a staking asset. • The Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate increasing bullish momentum, but ETH requires a strong catalyst for a clear breakout. Ethereum’s price direction is at a crossroads with the SEC taking increased interest in crypto staking that has the potential to transform its ETFs and overall sentiment. Approval of staking in Ethereum ETFs has the ability to trigger enormous institutional inflows into ETH, making it a more desirable asset. At present, ETH is stuck in a range between $2,500 and $2,850, and the $2,850 mark is a very solid resistance level. A breach above this would solidify bullish market structure, while a failure to do so could keep the price muted. As institutional investors are buying into more ETH ETF holdings and technicals reflect increasing bullish sentiment, Ethereum’s next direction will depend on regulatory developments and overall market drivers. Ethereum’s price continues to be range-bound as the SEC’s consideration of staking may fuel huge ETF inflows. A break above $2,850 could validate a bullish trend, with institutional investment still increasing, reflecting strong long-term faith in ETH. • The SEC is working closely with the crypto sector to consider staking, which may permit it in Ethereum ETFs. • Ethereum ETF staking approval would see substantial institutional and retail investment flowing in, making ETH’s proposition even more valuable. • ETH needs to overcome this important resistance level to develop a bullish trend; otherwise, it can remain range-bound. • Institutional holders of ETH ETFs have increased their holdings from 4.8% to 14.5% during the last quarter, reflecting immense market confidence. • RSI and Stochastic Oscillator indicate increasing upward momentum but with a catalyst to break out. • The price of Ethereum continues in a downward channel, with bulls having to defend support levels to avoid additional downside risk. • Should ETH not hold support, a slide below $2,200 will negate the bullish scenario and drop the price down to $1,500. The U.S. SEC’s growing interest in crypto staking can potentially redefine Ethereum’s investment landscape, particularly in the context of ETFs. By recognizing 21Shares’ application to allow staking in its Ethereum ETF, the regulatory agency indicates a change that could institutionalize Ethereum’s staking model. Staking enables investors to receive passive income by validating the blockchain, and it is a significant value proposition for ETH. If approved, Ethereum ETFs with staking would be able to draw a large number of investors looking for both price appreciation and yield generation, further cementing ETH’s status as a leading crypto asset. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Institutional adoption of  Ethereum is also growing, with major players continuing to expand their ETF holdings. Increased participation from institutional investors underlines Ethereum’s promise beyond as a mere digital currency—it is a dominant force in decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain technology. With Ethereum’s growing network, staking is a central factor that strengthens security and decentralization. With the ever-present debates surrounding regulation and a growing stake by the industry, Ethereum’s function in the financial world is primed to transform, cementing it as a long-term threat in the general crypto currency landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum price action is still within a range, with significant resistance at $2,850 and support at $2,500. The downtrend channel pattern established since mid-December continues to shape price action, with bulls trying to break out of this pattern. If ETH can close above the top line of the channel, it would indicate a change to bullish momentum, which may draw in more buyers. Market indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator exhibit slow ascent, indicating increasing buying pressure. Nevertheless, inability to hold above key points may result in consolidation or even possible retesting of lower support levels. FORECAST The price direction of Ethereum is uncertain, and both bullish and bearish scenarios are unfolding based on market catalysts and regulatory updates. If the SEC greenlights staking in Ethereum ETFs, ETH may see a big bullish move as institutional investors boost their positions. A move above the $2,850 resistance level would validate bullish momentum, which could drive ETH to the $3,000 level and beyond. More ETF inflows and growing faith in Ethereum’s staking ability could also reinforce its long-term price stability and growth. On the negative side, unless regulatory risks fade away or staking approval gets delayed, Ethereum may not be able to see any upside. The $2,500 level continues to be significant, and any fall below this region may extend losses. Global economic factors, investor risk sentiment, and overall market sentiment will also contribute to ETH’s movement. If the pressure to sell goes up, Ethereum may experience a pullback towards the $2,200 price level, and in the worst-case scenario, it may decline to $1,500. Nevertheless, favorable institutional investment and the overall crypto market recovery can prevent a drastic correction.

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