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Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

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  • February 21, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bearish Reversal Imminent as Upward Wedge Pattern Indicates Weakening Momentum

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  • February 21, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is low-key around the 1.0500 region, ranging in a rising wedge pattern, which points towards an impending bearish reversal. Although the 14-day RSI is close to 60, reflecting sustained bullish momentum, a reading above 70 may set off an overbought correction. The pair is currently positioned above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, which supports short-term strength. But a fall below the key support levels of 1.0453 (nine-day EMA) and 1.0436 (14-day EMA) would seal a bearish move, which could take the pair to 1.0177, its lowest since November 2022. On the higher side, resistance is at 1.0540, with a breakaway likely to take the pair to the two-month high of 1.0630. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD trades in a rising wedge formation, which could portend a possible bearish reversal if the downward pressure gathers strength and important support levels are breached. • The 14-day RSI fluctuates close to 60; an increase above 70 can be an indication of overbought, and it can lead to a pullback correction in the pair. • The nine-day EMA of the pair at 1.0453 and 14-day EMA at 1.0436 are the crucial support levels—a break below could seal further downside threats. • The higher limit of the rising wedge at 1.0540 is still a significant resistance level—a break above might push the pair towards 1.0630 highs. The EUR/USD pair continues to be at a pivotal point, ranging about 1.0500 in a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a bearish reversal if bearish momentum picks up. The 14-day RSI close to 60 indicates ongoing bullish support, but a move above 70 would signal overbought levels, raising the probability of a corrective pullback. The key support levels are at 1.0453 (nine-day EMA) and 1.0436 (14-day EMA), and a clean break below this level may further speed losses to 1.0177, its lowest since November 2022. On the other hand, a breakout above 1.0540, the top of the rising wedge, may solidify the bullish bias, moving the pair to the 1.0630 resistance level, which was last visited in early December. EUR/USD is quoted at 1.0500, trending within a rising wedge formation, suggesting a bearish reversal if a break of significant support at 1.0453 occurs. A reading near 60 in the 14-day RSI indicates bullish strength, but above 70 it might trigger a pullback. Breaking above 1.0540 can advance the pair towards 1.0630, solidifying a bullish trend. • EUR/USD is in a rising wedge, suggesting a bearish reversal if downside pressure picks up. • The nine-day EMA at 1.0453 and 14-day EMA at 1.0436 serve as crucial support; a break below could accelerate losses. • The upper boundary of the wedge at 1.0540 acts as a key resistance—breaking above it could trigger further bullish momentum. • The 14-day RSI suggests continued bullish strength, but a move above 70 may indicate overbought conditions, leading to a correction. • A decline below 1.0436 could turn momentum on the downside and drive the pair to 1.0177, its low since November 2022. • Should EUR/USD cross above 1.0540, it will test the two-month high at 1.0630, supporting a bull scenario. • The pair trades above its EMAs, supporting short-term bullishness, though falling volume within the wedge is an indicator of weakening buying force. The EUR/USD is in the limelight as market players closely monitor its trajectory in the wake of global economic developments. Investor moods are determined by several factors, such as geopolitical events, central bank actions, and macroeconomic announcements. The performance of the European economy, particularly regarding inflation and growth indicators, has a strong bearing on the outlook for the euro. At the same time, the U.S. dollar continues to be a dominant force, fueled by economic data, interest rate expectations, and general market sentiment. The interaction of these underlying factors decides the strength and stability of the currency pair. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Market sentiment is also influenced by investor sentiment, risk appetite, and external factors such as trade relations and monetary policy announcements. Any changes in world financial conditions have a profound effect on exchange rate behavior. Traders and investors track these variables to estimate possible movements and make sound judgments. Consumer spending, employment patterns, and economic stability in both regions also play a role in long-term trends in the EUR/USD currency pair. Knowledge of these factors aids in evaluating market conditions outside short-term volatility, giving a better view of currency market movement. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The EUR/USD currency pair is now trading in the form of a rising wedge pattern, a pattern that usually indicates a probable trend reversal. The pair still holds above its nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), representing short-term bullishness. But a breakdown below the key support levels can lead to a bearish turn. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at about 60, indicating ongoing bullish support, but should it rise above 70, this would indicate overbought levels, and a correction would ensue. On the upside, 1.0540 is a crucial resistance level, and a break out above it would drive the pair to the 1.0630 level, strengthening the bullish trend. Alternatively, a firm fall beneath the 1.0453–1.0436 support region would result in additional downward pressure, validating a change in momentum. FORECAST The EUR/USD currency pair is at a decisive moment with both the bullish and bearish picture on the cards. If the bullish trend prevails, the pair may break above the 1.0540 resistance level, indicating further robustness. A successful break may take it towards the 1.0630 level, a two-month high set in early December. If buying continues to increase, the next target on the upside would be around 1.0700, fueled by optimistic market sentiment and healthy economic data out of the Eurozone. On the flip side, if EUR/USD does not hold onto its present levels and breaches vital support levels at 1.0453 (nine-day EMA) and 1.0436 (14-day EMA), then it would mark a bearish reversal. A decisive fall below this area can propel losses further to

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Currencies

USD/CAD Sustains the Levels with US Jobless Statistics and BoC Rate Rumors

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  • February 21, 2025
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USD/CAD sustains its levels at 1.4150 as market participants consider contradictory economic cues from the US and Canada. The US Dollar is under pressure in the face of higher-than-projected jobless claims and unpredictable Federal Reserve policy, whereas the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to slow down rate reductions owing to persistent inflation. Market mood was lifted by US President Donald Trump’s insinuations about trade talk improvements with China but may be anchored by Canadian lumber tariffs. Participants are anticipating more market direction in the release of the forthcoming US PMI figure, the Canadian Retail Sales, and the address of BoC Governor Tiff Macklem. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher-than-anticipated jobless claims at 219,000 would have a dampening effect on the US Dollar, affecting USD/CAD moves amidst contrasting Federal Reserve policy cues. • Soaring inflation in Canada would compell the BoC to postpone rate cuts, affecting the Canadian Dollar and pushing USD/CAD volatility. • The US S&P Global PMI data due soon will give us a read on economic activity, influencing Fed policy expectations and affecting the USD/CAD pair. • Fresh US tariffs on Canadian wood might weigh on the CAD, escalating economic uncertainty and further pressuring USD/CAD moves in the near term. USD/CAD continues to be under the radar as market players await significant economic reports and policy moves from the US and Canada. Higher-than-projected US jobless claims have pressured the US Dollar, with mixed Federal Reserve signals compounding market uncertainty. In Canada, ongoing inflation could compel the Bank of Canada to hold off on rate cuts, offering potential support for the Canadian Dollar. Meanwhile, the publication of US PMI data will provide new information about economic activity and impact market sentiment. Furthermore, the effect of new US tariffs on Canadian lumber could put pressure on the CAD, introducing another element of volatility into the USD/CAD pair. USD/CAD holds firm as investors weigh US jobless claims, Federal Reserve cues, and Bank of Canada policy forecasts. US PMI and Canadian Retail Sales will offer major market guidance. In the meantime, fresh US tariffs on Canadian lumber might push the CAD lower, boosting volatility. • The currency pair holds firm against recent losses, with investors looking at economic data and policy news from the US and Canada. • Weekly claims increased to 219,000, higher than the expected 215,000, putting pressure on the US Dollar with worries over labor market stability. • Fed officials mention inflation threats and possible stagflation, keeping markets in doubt over future interest rate moves and how they will affect the USD. • Higher Canadian inflation could encourage the BoC to hold off on rate cuts, potentially to support the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar. • The S&P Global PMI reading will give insight into US economic activity and affect sentiment towards the USD. • The announcement of additional tariffs on Canadian lumber by President Trump can pressure the CAD due to Canada being a significant exporter. • Retail Sales data and BoC Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech are being followed closely by traders for additional policy cues that will affect USD/CAD action. The USD/CAD currency pair is still in focus for traders due to economic signals from the US and Canada dictating market moods. The US has released the latest report on jobless claims, where higher-than-projected filings indicate possible changes in the labor environment. Discussions around inflation and money policy persist with Federal Reserve members citing worries regarding meeting the 2% inflation rate. On the Canadian side, inflation is still high, fueling speculation that the Bank of Canada will postpone its expected rate reductions. This move could have a profound impact on businesses and consumers, influencing economic expectations for the next few months. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Also, global trade updates bring an added dimension of interest to the USD/CAD forecast. US President Donald Trump’s revelation of new tariffs on Canadian timber may impact Canada’s export economy, causing alarm about trade relations and economic stability. Meanwhile, market players are eagerly awaiting Canada’s Retail Sales report and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s speech to learn more about the country’s economic condition. These forces, coupled with more general economic trends, will continue to influence the economic narrative for both nations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD continues to consolidate above the 1.4150 handle following previous declines, signifying a period of market indecision. The pair is met with near-term resistance at 1.4200, a breakout above which may portend additional upside momentum. On the negative side, the major support level is still 1.4120, and a breakdown below could lead to further decline. The 50-day moving average is also serving as dynamic support, and RSI is close to the neutral level, indicating neither overbought nor oversold levels. Traders will be closely monitoring price action for confirmation of the next move, particularly with the release of economic data soon. FORECAST If USD/CAD can break above the 1.4200 resistance level, then it may signal further upward movement. Strong US economic data, especially robust PMI readings, may support the US Dollar, pushing the pair upwards. If the Bank of Canada also gives a hint that it will proceed with caution regarding rate cuts given the ongoing inflation, the Canadian Dollar may dip, further fueling USD/CAD. Any fresh global uncertainty or risk-off mood could also propel the USD as a safe-haven currency, taking the pair to the next resistance level around 1.4250-1.4300. On the bearish side, if USD/CAD is unable to hold above the support level of 1.4150, it may experience more selling pressure. Poorer US economic news, such as weak PMI numbers or higher jobless claims, could bear down on the US Dollar, causing the pair to fall. In addition, if the Bank of Canada becomes more hawkish or conveys optimism over Canada’s economic strength, the Canadian Dollar will likely get stronger, and USD/CAD will be headed for the next levels of support at 1.4120 and 1.4080. Any uptick in Canada’s Retail Sales will also drive CAD strength and heighten the probability of further

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Appreciates on Market Sentiment: GBP/USD Tests Critical Resistance as Investors Look to Economic Releases

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) has appreciated against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment continues to improve. Investor sentiment has improved after President Trump’s moderated approach to tariffs and continued talks of a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Yet, doubts persist regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as the most recent FOMC minutes emphasize ongoing inflation threats from possible tariff effects. The economic outlook for the UK is also uncertain, with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey indicating weak growth and labor market deceleration. The British pound is capped at 1.2620, with future UK Retail Sales and S&P Global PMI figures set to dictate further price movements. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales report, which will give them an idea of consumer spending patterns and the general health of the UK economy. • The initial UK and US PMI readings for February will reflect economic activity patterns and may determine the short-term direction of the Pound Sterling. • FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates based on inflation threats, which could maintain the US Dollar strong against the Pound Sterling. • The 1.2620 level of resistance and 1.2250 support zone are very important in specifying the next possible breakout or correction in the currency pair. The Pound Sterling’s shift against the US Dollar is dependent on several significant determinants, such as future UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI reports, due to release and offering new economic activity and consumer confidence insights. As for its counterpart, the Federal Reserve’s recent conservative position regarding interest rates, reflected in the most recent FOMC minutes, emphasizes inflationary pressures fueled by possible US tariff measures. This could keep the US Dollar strong, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. On the technical front, the pair faces resistance at 1.2620, aligned with the 100-day EMA, while key support rests at 1.2250. Market sentiment remains a key driver, with geopolitical developments and risk appetite influencing short-term trends. The Pound Sterling’s action against the US Dollar continues to be guided by UK Retail Sales figures, PMI data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance. With 1.2620 acting as resistance and 1.2250 as support, geopolitical concerns and market sentiment will dictate the direction of the currency pair. • GBP/USD is trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment picks up pace, boosted by diminishing fears about Trump’s tariff policies and optimism in geopolitics. • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales figures, which will give an indication of consumer expenditure and possible economic recovery. • The UK and US February preliminary PMI figures will be instrumental in determining business activity and economic resilience. • The FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates as a result of inflation fears, which may favor the US Dollar. • UK CPI increased more than expected, but the BoE is still hesitant to cut rates further due to economic weakness. • GBP/USD is resisted at 1.2620 and major support at 1.2250, where it will make its next move. • Market sentiment is influenced by news regarding Trump’s trade policies and continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The movement of the Pound Sterling is now being dictated by wider economic and geopolitical events. Investors are following UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI closely, which will paint a clearer picture of economic activity and consumer confidence. A better-than-anticipated retail performance will indicate strength in the UK economy, while PMI figures will reveal business conditions in the UK and US. Also, recent inflation data have indicated a short-term spike, and as a result, the Bank of England has kept monetary policy tight. Governor Andrew Bailey has already cautioned that growth could be slow, and any additional policy moves will be based on new data. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the international front, market sentiment has been better because of a more cautious approach by President Trump on trade policies. Although early fears about tariffs on Chinese imports and other major sectors caused volatility, Trump’s recent statements on a potential trade deal with China have calmed fears. But uncertainty persists as there is no clear plan on tariff implementation. While meanwhile, talks on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have also fostered a risk-positive sentiment, though Ukraine dismissed any agreement in the absence of its direct participation. As conditions in the world economy and politics change, investors will be careful, keeping an eye on critical events that would affect market stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is fighting to sustain above the 1.2600 level, and resistance is situated at 1.2620, which is coinciding with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The duo is now oscillating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, calculated from the September-end high to the January-middle low, which represents a key area for possible breakout or pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is barely managing to stay above 60.00, and if it fails to hold above this level, it could signal weakening bullish momentum. On the negative side, major support is at 1.2250, and a fall below this level may initiate further selling pressure. To have a stronger uptrend, GBP/USD must break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2767, which would signal a continuation of bullish sentiment. FORECAST The potential for the upside in GBP/USD relies on better market sentiment and major economic data releases. If UK Retail Sales for January and February S&P Global PMI reports surpass predictions, this is likely to be a confidence booster for the UK economy, driving the Pound upward. Favorable change in Brexit developments or better-than-forecasted employment statistics are additional strengths for the currency. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve is hinting at a softer approach towards interest rates in light of slowing inflation, the US Dollar might depreciate, leaving GBP/USD more space to move upwards. Breaking above the resistance level of 1.2620 might signal more upward gains towards the 1.2767 area, suggesting positive momentum. On the negative, any indication of economic weakness within the UK, for example poor retail sales or a fall

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Falls Close to 0.5650 as Fed Rate Decision Nears: Risk-Off Mood and RBNZ Rate Cut Hopes Dampen Kiwi

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  • January 29, 2025
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NZD/USD continues to fall, touching close to 0.5650, as risk aversion builds up before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The market expects the Fed to keep its policy rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, with market participants listening for cues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future policy moves. Meanwhile, a little boost is given to the US Dollar from a cautious Fed outlook and the recent threat of tariffs by the former US President Donald Trump, who seeks to improve the production units at home. New Zealand Dollar remains under stress due to ever-increasing dovish expectations around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), with markets pricing in a high likelihood of another 50 bps rate cut in February. RBNZ Chief Economist Conway reconfirmed that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will move gradually towards neutral, further weakening the Kiwi. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve will make its policy decision, which is widely certain to leave the rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s comments might be the only clue about future monetary policy directions. • The Greenback makes a recovery on tariff threats from former President Trump on key imports, suggesting shifts in trade policy that may influence global currency markets and investor sentiment. • Markets are pricing in a 50 bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in February, with expectations of further easing weighing heavily on the New Zealand Dollar’s outlook. • Risk aversion, now persistent, ahead of a series of key central bank decisions continues to weigh on NZD/USD, as global investors increasingly seek out safe-haven assets, creating volatile currency valuation and broader financial market dynamics. NZD/USD remains on the back foot ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as markets are expected to hold the rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is going to be closely watched for policy cues that could impact the strength of the US Dollar. The Greenback has already gained significant traction due to tariff threats from former President Donald Trump, which is further strengthening risk-off sentiment. Meanwhile, expectations of a 50 bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February continue to weigh on the Kiwi, with the central bank signaling a gradual move toward a neutral rate. Amid these developments, risk sentiment and broader market reactions will play a crucial role in shaping NZD/USD’s near-term trajectory. NZD/USD remains on the back foot ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision as traders are holding on to Powell’s speech for cues on policy. The US Dollar strengthens on shifting trade policies while Kiwi remains on the back foot as expectations of a 50 bps RBNZ rate cut remain in place. Risk-off sentiment and market reactions will remain key drivers for NZD/USD. • The pair is still weakening and trading near 0.5650 as the market is averse to risks ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, while Powell’s speech will be something to watch out for future policy signals. • The Greenback is bolstered by the Fed’s cautious outlook and tariff threats by former President Trump on key imports. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut 50 bps in February, and easing is expected throughout 2025. • Uncertainty in global markets is pushing investors towards safe haven assets, and risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar continue to face further pressure. • Traders will keep a close eye on both the Fed and RBNZ, as their respective stances are expected to set the tone for NZD/USD. • The Kiwi may remain under pressure with the RBNZ signaling a shift toward a neutral rate, and this will be influenced by domestic inflation trends and global risk factors. NZD/USD continues to move lower, trading near 0.5650 as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for hints at future policy tightening. The US Dollar remains firm on the back of a dovish Fed and renewed threats of tariffs from former President Donald Trump, which has stoked concerns about the global trade dynamic. As risk sentiment erodes, risk-sensitive currencies are being shunted toward safe havens, piling on further pain for the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Kiwi faces intense selling as there is rising belief that the RBNZ is likely to follow through with a 50 bps rate cut this February. Since it is expected to stay dovish and ease its policies throughout 2025, New Zealand remains exposed to more bears. The dovish tilt was furthered by RBNZ Chief Economist Conway’s statement reiterating the gradual shift towards a neutral rate. As the inflation expectations keep falling and domestic pricing pressures are eased, the RBNZ would be more likely to take an accommodative turn, which should weigh on NZD/USD in the long term. With these recent developments, market participants will continue to watch out for the Fed’s policy signals as well as the global risk sentiment to decide the next steps of the pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is holding on to a bearish momentum since it’s again trading close to the 0.5650 support point, marking third consecutive loss points. The chart is below main moving averages-50-day and 200-day EMA have acted as hurdles for the present, showing how the pair continued its downtrend. RSI is still approaching the oversold boundary, so at this stage, an immediate correction can’t be denied since selling pressure also seems strong for the time being. The next immediate support is around 0.5620, a break below which could open the door for further losses toward 0.5580. On the upside, resistance is seen near 0.5700, followed by 0.5750, where sellers are likely to emerge. A daily close below 0.5650 could reinforce bearish sentiment, while any recovery above 0.5700 may signal a temporary reversal. Traders should watch for

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Nears 1.2450 as Traders Await Fed Decision and UK Economic Outlook

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  • January 29, 2025
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GBP/USD continues to hover around 1.2450 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where the market is all but sure that rates will be maintained in the 4.25%-4.50% band. The Pound Sterling continues to suffer under rising stagflationary pressures in the UK, where labor demand remains weak and inflation refuses to budge. Adding to the uncertainty, renewed tariff threats by US President Donald Trump on key imports including computer chips and metals have seen an uptrend of risk aversion. At the same time, expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points by Bank of England in February increase pressure on the British Pound. Investors are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on future monetary policy, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains optimistic about economic recovery and stronger US-UK trade ties. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets anticipate the Fed will maintain rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Traders will closely analyze Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for any signals on future monetary policy shifts. • Deteriorating demand for labor and runaway inflation create fears of stagflation in the UK, further putting on pressure to the Pound Sterling, and intensifying expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in 2025. • President Trump’s plans to impose duties on imported components like computer chips and metals could further escalate tensions between them, increase averse sentiments towards risks, and strengthen the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. • Markets are factoring in a 25 basis point rate cut in February, which will bring borrowing rates to 4.5%, further hammering down GBP/USD in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty. GBP/USD is on high alert as market participants await the Federal Reserve policy decision, in which the Fed is likely to maintain rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Traders will watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements for clues on the next course of action for monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling underperformed with stagflation worries rising in the UK on labor demand weakness and stuck inflation leading speculators to begin expecting the Bank of England will cut the February interest rate. Also, President Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs for vital imports including computer chips and metals have amplified the risk aversion factor thereby sending the US Dollar surging ahead. Traders will pay close attention to developments in the US and the UK to get an idea of which way GBP/USD will take its next leg. GBP/USD holds around 1.2450 ahead of Fed’s policy decision that is widely seen to leave the interest rates as is. However, the concerns over the UK’s stagflation and President Trump’s new tariff threats pressure the Pound Sterling. Investors would keenly follow Fed Chair Powell’s speech for cues on the further monetary policy measures. • Federal Reserve would be holding onto the interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50% levels. Traders will be monitoring Jerome Powell closely for further monetary policy directions. • Stagflationary fears creep in with soft labor demand, coupled with unrelenting inflation. The pressure mounts on the British Pound, along with increased Bank of England rate-cut expectations. • Implications of US President Donald Trump, proposed tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and metals that might push the trade tensions higher, a strong US Dollar, and increased risk aversion. • A 25 basis point cut in February is already priced into markets, which could reduce the borrowing rates to 4.5% and put more pressure on the GBP/USD. • Despite UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s optimism regarding economic recovery and trade ties with the US, the British Pound remains under pressure. • The cautious Fed stance, coupled with risk aversion resulting from uncertainty in trade policy, continues to support the US Dollar and limits gains in GBP/USD. • Investors are keeping an eye on the economic data releases, decisions of the central banks, and trade developments, as these factors will play a crucial role in determining the future movement of GBP/USD. GBP/USD is trading steady near 1.2450 as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with markets almost certain that interest rates will remain at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for any signals on future monetary policy direction, which could influence the US Dollar’s strength. Meanwhile, the British Pound faces pressure due to rising concerns over stagflation in the UK, driven by weakening labor demand and persistent inflation. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in February weigh further on GBP/USD, as the economic outlook remains uncertain despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s optimism about growth and trade relations with the US. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats on key imports, including computer chips and metals, have increased risk aversion, strengthening the US Dollar against the Pound. Any more trade tensions can keep piling pressure on global markets as investors seek the safe haven of the US Dollar. As economic uncertainty goes on, some key developments both out of the US and the UK will be followed as traders look towards the next leg in GBP/USD. Policy from central banks and trade dynamics will remain strong drivers for determining market direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is still trading near 1.2450, but any selling pressure must be expected around key levels of resistance set at 1.2500 and 1.2550. On the flip side, immediate support is at 1.2400, and another stronger support area is seen closer to 1.2350. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is seen moving in neutral region, which also does not support the idea that it is in overbought or oversold territory. 50-day MA still remains flat, without any strong momentum, but the 200-day MA of 1.2600 does act as a longer-term resistance point. If the pair falls below 1.2400, then further falls could be possible. A breakout above 1.2500 might provide scope for further upsides. The level of price action will be watched closely because the upcoming policy decisions of Fed and BoE could create a surge in volatility. FORECAST

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Amid Renewed USD Strength

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  • January 27, 2025
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GBP/USD is trading under pressure around 1.2450 in the early European session on Monday, weighed down by renewed demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Despite the dip, the pair maintains a bullish outlook above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, supported by a positive RSI reading of 64.70. Immediate resistance is seen at the 1.2500-1.2510 zone, and a break above could target 1.2551 and 1.2607. On the downside, key support is seen at 1.2350, and a breach of this level opens the door to further declines toward 1.2250 and 1.2160. Traders are advised to watch these levels for breakout or reversal signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 1.2500-1.2510 level, which marks a confluence with the upper Bollinger Band and psychological resistance. A breakout might open the way towards 1.2551 and 1.2607. • The 1.2350 mark, coupled with support from the 100-period EMA, is an important barrier on the downside. A penetration could lead to additional falls to 1.2250 and 1.2160. • The RSI hovering above the midline at 64.70 supports the bullish outlook. Sustained strength in this zone indicates further upside potential in the near term. • GBP/USD remains within Bollinger Band boundaries. Any decisive move beyond the upper or lower band could indicate heightened momentum for bullish or bearish trends. GBP/USD remains under selling pressure around 1.2450 during Monday’s early European session, influenced by renewed demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Despite this, the pair maintains a bullish outlook, staying above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.70 further supports the potential for upward momentum. Key resistance is seen at the 1.2500-1.2510 zone, with a break above potentially targeting 1.2551 and 1.2607. On the downside, the crucial support level at 1.2350 aligns with the 100-period EMA, and a breach of this could lead to further declines toward 1.2250 and 1.2160. GBP/USD trades near 1.2450, amid fresh US Dollar strength. The pair is still bullish above the 100-period EMA but present critical resistance at the 1.2500-1.2510 level, and today important support is at the 1.2350. •GBP/USD trades near 1.2450 in the morning European session under strong selling pressure from renewed interest for the US Dollar. •The pair holds above the 100-period EMA in the 4-hour chart and therefore a bullish perception is ensured. • The RSI is still above the midpoint at 64.70 and susceptible to more upward movement. • The psychological level and the level of the top Bollinger Band boundary is at 1.2500-1.2510. • If the price reaches 1.2510 level, then it could move to 1.2551 and further to 1.2607 as seen in the high of January 6 and December 30. • The 100-period EMA is also at 1.2350 level, and thus this is very crucial support for the currency pair. • A drop below 1.2350 could open up more losses to 1.2250 and 1.2160, the lower Bollinger Band and January 20 low. GBP/USD is trading around 1.2450 in early Monday’s European session, weighed down by the re-emergence of safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. Despite selling pressure, the pair remains positive, staying above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. The Relative Strength Index at 64.70 is also pointing to the upside, while a further resistance level is seen at 1.2500-1.2510, the upper Bollinger Band, and the psychological level. Higher action would be seen if the pair were to make a decisive breakout at this point toward 1.2551 and 1.2607, both these had acted as highs in January 6 and December 30 respectively. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the flip side, the critical support lies at 1.2350, which is supported by the 100-period EMA. A break of the latter can send GBP/USD even lower to target 1.2250, then 1.2160, which serves as the lower Bollinger Band and marks the January 20 low. Traders must be very vigilant about those levels and look for a breakout or reversal signal there. The overall technical aspect is positive so long as the pair is maintained above the crucial support levels. The RSI supports the bullish aspect, at least for now. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The price action of GBP/USD exhibits a bullish direction, as it sustains trading above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average on the 4-hour chart, which indicates powerful bullish momentum. Relative Strength Index, currently at 64.70, indicates that there will be continued buying. The Bollinger Bands are bringing the pair toward the upper boundary near the key resistance zone of 1.2500-1.2510, which is a psychological level. If the pair can break above this resistance, it will propel it toward the next upside targets at 1.2551 and 1.2607. The downside critical support lies at 1.2350, where the 100-period EMA gives a strong defense. A breakdown of this support could bring further declines targeting 1.2250 and 1.2160. From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook appears positive, and key levels will be watched for breakouts or reversals. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair is seen bullish as it stays above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Relative Strength Index at 64.70 further supports positive momentum and, therefore, possible upward movement. The immediate resistance on the psychological area is seen between 1.2500 and 1.2510 also in line with the upper Bollinger Band; a successful breakthrough above this range could take it to 1.2551; the high is seen on January 6, and towards 1.2607 high on December 30, 2024. At these levels one finds the bulls’ next major test for continued rallies in the shorter term. On the negative side, the critical support level is at 1.2350, which also aligns with the 100-period EMA. A break below this level could weaken the bullish case and expose GBP/USD to further declines. Next key support levels to watch are 1.2250, near the lower Bollinger Band, and 1.2160, the low of January 20. These levels will be important for gauging the strength of bearish pressure if the pair is unable to stay above 1.2350. Traders should monitor

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