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Australian Dollar Weakens as Resilient US Dollar and Dull Domestic Data Weigh on AUD/USD

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  • October 7, 2025
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Australian Dollar (AUD) declined against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as dismal domestic data and a resilient Greenback put pressure on the pair. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence declined 3.5% in October, with ANZ Job Advertisements plummeting sharply, indicating weakening economic sentiment. In spite of increasing hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions in the face of a record US government shutdown, the USD kept gaining strength on the back of hawkish Fed statements. In contrast, the AUD/USD pair fluctuated about 0.6610, remaining near crucial support levels as market participants look to subsequent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) speeches and inflation releases for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Westpac Consumer Confidence declined 3.5% in October, while ANZ Job Advertisements reduced 3.3%, reflecting a easing labor market and tepid consumer sentiment. • The Greenback remains solid despite increasing hopes for Fed rate reductions and persistent government shutdown ambiguity. • Market participants expect forthcoming RBA speeches to provide insight into future monetary policy as inflation pressures continue to persist. • AUD/USD lingers around the 0.6600 support, with resistance around 0.6707; a breach below 0.6560 may initiate fresh bearish pressures. The Australian Dollar continued its slide versus the Greenback on Tuesday as weaker domestic indicators and a resilient US currency put downward pressure on sentiment. Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence dropped 3.5% in October, while ANZ Job Advertisements declined 3.3%, as economic uncertainty increased. In spite of anticipation of future Fed rate cuts during the continued US government shutdown, the US Dollar continued to strengthen on the back of hawkish comments from Fed policymakers highlighting the requirement to continue controlling inflation. While meanwhile traders wait eagerly for policy signals from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials through their speeches, the AUD/USD pair trades just beneath the support level of 0.6600 with very little bullish pressure. Australian Dollar dipped as weak local data and a rising US Dollar pushed the AUD/USD pair. Even amid speculations of Fed interest rate cuts, the Greenback was solid during the US government shutdown. Traders now look forward to coming RBA speeches for policy guidance. • The Australian Dollar fell as poor domestic data pushed sentiment low. • Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 3.5% in October, the steepest decline since April. • ANZ Job Advertisements dropped 3.3% in September, which indicated declining labor demand. • The US Dollar continued to gain ground even as expectations increased for Fed rate cuts. • The hawkish views of Fed officials supported optimism over US monetary policy. • The AUD/USD currency pair is trading close to the 0.6600 support level with minimal bullish force. • Market participants look forward to speeches from RBA officials to gain clarity on future rate levels and inflation expectations. The Australian Dollar came under renewed pressure against the US Dollar as dismal economic data from Australia underscored increasing domestic issues. Westpac Consumer Confidence dipped 3.5% in October, the steepest fall in six months, and ANZ Job Advertisements declined by 3.3% in September, reflecting weakening household expenditures and employment prospects, which keep burdening Australia’s economic prospects. At the same time, the TD-MI Inflation Gauge indicated that price pressures continue to be ongoing, making it challenging for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to balance its inflation to within a target range. AUD/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView In international markets, the US Dollar was steadfast despite growing expectations of future Federal Reserve rate reductions. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials reiterated their resolve to tame inflation, buoying the Greenback in an environment of political and economic instability brought on by the protracted US government shutdown. The prolonged shutdown has pushed forward major economic reports, further encouraging caution in the markets. Further, the news of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese later this month has raised eyebrows, with talks regarding the Aukus defense pact potentially having implications on future trade and diplomatic relations between the two countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair is trading around the crucial support level of 0.6600, closely in line with the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6602. The couple continues trading inside an uptrend channel, suggesting that the couple’s modest bullish tilt is still in place. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, also providing an argument for a possible recovery if the momentum is maintained. On the higher side, the breakout above the 12-month high of 0.6707 may pave the way to challenge the upper line around 0.6790. On the contrary, a firm break below 0.6560, around the 50-day EMA, would point to a bearish bias and put the pair at risk of further losses. FORECAST If sentiment in the markets improves and risk appetite resumes, the Australian Dollar may recapture favor against its American counterpart. A break above the 0.6707 resistance point on a sustainable basis would reinforce the positive picture, potentially sending the pair towards the top line of the rising channel at 0.6790. Friendly comments from RBA policymakers or higher inflation readings would also enhance hopes for a more aggressive policy approach, giving a further boost to the AUD/USD pair in the short term. Yet, if soft domestic indicators persist to drag on confidence and the US Dollar continues to stay robust, the AUD/USD currency pair could once again attract fresh selling interest. A fall below the psychological support at 0.6600 would likely lead to further plunges towards the 0.6560–0.6410 area. Chronic worries over consumer confidence, employment market weakness, and a dovish RBA policy stance could also continue to restrict the Australian Dollar’s near-term recovery potential.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Above 1.3450 amid US PCE Inflation Figures Meeting Forecasts

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  • August 29, 2025
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GBP/USD is ranging above 1.3450 following a three-day winning streak being snapped, as the US Dollar gained strength on the back of July’s PCE inflation report. Core PCE increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, its best since February, while headline PCE increased 0.2% monthly, leaving the yearly rate unchanged at 2.6%. More-than-expected individual spending and consistent income expansion showcased robust consumer demand, backing the Greenback. In spite of Sterling pulling back from multi-session highs, the pair still stays firm above 1.3450, as traders find the inflation outcomes to be mostly priced in. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.3450 despite ending a three-day winning run as the US Dollar picks up momentum. • US Core PCE inflation increases to 2.9% YoY, the highest since Feb, while headline PCE remains unchanged at 2.6%. • Personal expenditure increases by 0.5% in July, indicating strong consumer demand amidst weaker labor market conditions. • Levels of support lie at 1.3400 and 100-day EMA at 1.3368; levels of resistance are at 1.3530 and 1.3594. GBP/USD remains flat at 1.3450 on Friday after ending a three-day winning spree, as the US Dollar firmed up after July’s PCE inflation report came out. The statistics revealed core PCE rising to 2.9% compared to last year, its best since February, while headline PCE remained steady at 2.6%. Improved personal spending and personal income growth highlighted a buoyant consumer demand, providing additional support to the Greenback. While Sterling has retreated from recent highs, the pair’s continued trade above 1.3450 implies that much of inflation result was already priced in, leaving price action relatively subdued. GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3450 following US PCE inflation data generally in line with forecasts. The Dollar was supported by firmer personal spending, while Sterling remained firm, implying limited market response to the report. • GBP/USD breaks three-day success streak but remains strong over 1.3450. • US Core PCE inflation increased 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, the highest since February. • Headline PCE was up 0.2% MoM, maintaining the annual rate at 2.6%. • Personal spending increased 0.5% in July, beating the forecasted 0.3%. • Personal income increased 0.4% MoM, demonstrating consistent consumer strength. • The US Dollar Index rose back around 98.00, supporting the Greenback’s bullishness. • Technicals indicate support at 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3530 and 1.3594. The British Pound is ranging above 1.3450 after shedding some speed against the US Dollar after the release of US PCE inflation figures. The report revealed that core inflation reached 2.9% year-over-year in July, its peak since February, while headline PCE remained unchanged at 2.6%. These data were mostly in line with forecasts, tempering any dramatic market reaction but solidifying the perception that inflation is sticky. Concurrently, consumer spending increased 0.5% and incomes increased by 0.4%, demonstrating US household resilience in spite of a softening labor market. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Stronger consumer data supports the US economy’s continuation of stability and lent support to the US Dollar that henceforth dragged Sterling’s recent momentum. Though the British Pound has retreated from recent highs, that it has held firm is a testament to the truth that most of the inflation figures were already factored into markets. Generally, the lackluster reaction is a signal that investors are now looking to future US employment figures as well as central bank policy cues for clearer guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is being supported around the 1.3450 level, with firmer downside support at 1.3400 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3368. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3530, followed by the August 14 high at 1.3594. A clear break above these levels would leave the way open for another bout of bullish pressure, whereas inability to hold 1.3400 might cause deeper corrective pressure towards lower support levels. FORECAST If GBP/USD is able to stay above 1.3450 support and continues to gain traction, the pair may test the 1.3530 resistance area again. Breaking above this level successfully might lead the way towards 1.3594, August mid-month high, which indicates more bullish potential. Better risk appetite or weaker US data in subsequent sessions might give Sterling more strength against the Dollar. Conversely, if bears strengthen and push GBP/USD below 1.3450, the subsequent major support is at 1.3400, then the 100-day EMA around 1.3368. A move below these would mark bearish influence and could leave the pair vulnerable to further corrective activities. Better US Dollar demand on the back of economic robustness or hawkish Fed sentiment could continue to keep Sterling pressured in the near term.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Falls as Robust US Data Dull Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Sterling Weakens Despite Supportive UK Jobs Data

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  • July 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair fell to 1.3408 in the North American session as better-than-forecasted American economic news boosted the demand for the Dollar and squashed expectations of a soon Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 221K, while retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, both better than predicted and supporting the Fed’s reluctance to ease policy. Hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler contributed to the Dollar’s strength. The UK labor market cooled but not as swiftly as anticipated, providing little encouragement for the Pound. Consequently, Sterling continued to underperform amidst conflicting economic indicators and central bank forecasts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Improved-than-expected jobless claims and retail sales figures favor the US Dollar and lower the chances of a Fed rate cut in the short term. • Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicate interest rates could stay constant despite inflationary fears, particularly from tariffs. • The UK’s more sluggish-than-anticipated cooling in its labor market did not offer sterling any meaningful support, which left GBP/USD vulnerable. • GBP/USD is heading towards crucial support levels at 1.3373, with more downside potential towards 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA of 1.3278 if negative momentum persists. The GBP/USD currency pair was subjected to fresh selling pressure after the release of a robust set of U.S. economic data, which provided added impetus to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on cutting interest rates. With unemployment claims declining to 221K and retail sales increasing 0.6% in June, the numbers hinted at ongoing economic strength in the U.S., further pushing up the Greenback to new monthly highs. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s dovish comments further bolstered the Dollar as she highlighted maintaining rates at current levels in the face of tariff-driven inflation. Conversely, the UK labor market only moderately indicated a slowdown, which was not enough to prop up the Pound, and GBP/USD continued trading around weekly lows at the 1.3400 level. GBP/USD fell to 1.3408 as impressive U.S. jobless claims and retail sales figures boosted the Greenback and dampened rate cut speculation. Aggressive Fed commentary put additional pressure on Sterling, as it struggled even with a relatively resilient UK labor release. • GBP/USD went down to 1.3408 after robust US data boosted the Dollar in the North American session. • US Jobless Claims fell to 221K, better than the predicted 235K, indicating a healthy employment scenario. • June Retail Sales climbed 0.6%, much greater than the predicted 0.1%, bolstering economic strength. • Fed Governor Kugler indicated no hurry to reduce rates, pointing to inflationary pressures and firm jobs. • UK labor data showed slower-than-expected cooling, with the Claimant Count Change at 25.9K. • Sterling remained pressured, unable to gain momentum despite less negative domestic data. • Technical bias remains neutral-to-bearish, with key support at 1.3373 and resistance near the 50-day SMA at 1.3500. The GBP/USD exchange rate reacted to the latest round of economic data, with the U.S. Dollar strengthens after strong performance in jobless claims and retail spending. The initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated, and consumer expenditure witnessed strong growth during June—both indicators that the U.S. economy is still strong. These occurrences, combined with the recent inflation numbers, led investors to re-evaluate the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler echoed this view by asserting that monetary policy is likely to stay stable for the time being considering continued price pressures. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The UK labor market statistics, on the other hand, presented a moderate level of strength, where there was a less-than-anticipated increase in unemployment benefit claims. Nonetheless, the British Pound had little support since broader market sentiment was positive towards the Dollar. Political clarity within the U.S. also came into play, with fears surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s employment status being dismissed by President Trump, taking away one layer of uncertainty. Focus now turns to forthcoming central bank commentary as well as other economic data that can shape currency interactions between the Pound and the Dollar. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has a neutral-to-bearish bias since it is trading close to the lower boundary of its recent range at 1.3400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows persistent bearish momentum that implies that sellers are still in charge notwithstanding sporadic buying interest. To turn the outlook bullish, the pair would have to retake the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3500. Failing that may create room for further losses, with short-term support at 1.3373 followed by the psychological level of 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3278. FORECAST On the other hand, in case of increased bullish momentum, GBP/USD may try to recover towards the 1.3485 level, which was the recent two-day high. A breakout above this resistance could set the stage for a challenge of the 50-day SMA near 1.3500, a key level that may confirm a change in short-term sentiment. Continued advances above this area could prompt additional gains toward 1.3570 and possibly 1.3620, if further supporting UK data or dovish turns from the Fed favor the Pound. On the negative side, sustained Dollar strength and tight Fed policy expectations could drive GBP/USD below near-term support at 1.3373. A breakdown below here would risk further losses down to the 1.3300 psychological level. Should selling continue, the pair could fall further down to the 100-day SMA at 1.3278, with further downside targets at 1.3200 not precluded in a bearish environment.

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