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EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1750 as Dollar Rallies on Fed Indications and French Protest

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  • September 20, 2025
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EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 on Friday as the US Dollar bounced off three-year lows, fueled by increasing Treasury yields and reserve Federal Reserve officials’ dovish rhetoric after this week’s 25 bps cut in interest rates. Whereas San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari indicated a balanced prognosis, Governor Stephen Miran favored more easing, pointing to internal divergence. Meanwhile, political turmoil in France, with nationwide protests against planned cuts in spending, put pressure on the Euro. With a thin economic docket this week, investors now set their sights on future US data releases, such as PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core PCE. KEY LOOKOUTS • Conflicting opinions by Daly, Kashkari, and Miran continue to influence expectations for upcoming rate cuts. • Nationwide demonstrations against spending reductions pressure the Euro and contribute to political risks in the region. • The major releases such as Flash PMIs, GDP, Jobless Claims, and Core PCE inflation will be steering market sentiment next week. • Short-term direction remains key with EUR/USD support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800/1.1850. EUR/USD fell back below 1.1750 as the US Dollar rallied on the strength of rising Treasury yields and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials in the wake of the recent 25 bps rate cut. While Fed members Daly and Kashkari kept a balanced tone, Governor Miran hinted that further easing might be warranted, which created market uncertainty. On the other hand, political tensions in France, where widespread protests broke out over suggested spending reductions, continued to weaken the Euro. With scarce data this week, speculators are looking ahead to next’s US economic reports, including PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and the Core PCE inflation measure, for new direction. EUR/USD declined below 1.1750 after the US Dollar recovered on higher Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments. Political tension in France put additional pressure on the Euro, and markets now look to major US releases including GDP and Core PCE for new impetus. • EUR/USD fell 0.32% to 1.1747 as the US Dollar recovered from three-year lows. • Higher US Treasury yields underpinned the Greenback later in the week. • Fed officials sent out conflicting signals — Daly tilted dovish, Kashkari remained neutral, and Miran signaled further easing. • Protests in France against proposed spending reductions pushed the Euro and introduced political risk. • US Jobless Claims dropped to 231K, ahead of estimates, and the Philadelphia Fed Index rose to 23.2. • Futures markets expect a 90% probability of yet another Fed rate cut this month and close to 80% for December. • The important technical levels are support at 1.1700 and resistance at 1.1800–1.1850, while RSI still supports the overall uptrend. The Euro came under pressure against the US Dollar as political unrest in France and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials influenced market sentiment. Demonstrations in major French cities underscored popular resistance against planned spending cuts, giving President Emmanuel Macron and his newly elected Prime Minister fresh challenges. This political unrest created another level of uncertainty for the Euro, already burdened by external factors. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView To the upside, the Dollar found support on the US side from firmer Treasury yields and recent comments from Fed officials after a 25 bps rate cut. Although Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari found a balanced tone, Governor Stephen Miran reaffirmed his liking for more aggressive easing, highlighting splits in the Fed. With the calendar in the week looking fairly light, focus is shifting to coming US economic announcements like PMIs, Jobless Claims, GDP, and Core PCE that will give better insight into the economic direction and policy trajectory. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD fell below 1.1750 following an evening star candlestick pattern formation, indicating deteriorating momentum for the Euro. Bears are looking to 1.1700 as the next level of support, with a deeper sell-off possibly revealing the September 11 low at 1.1659 and the 100-day SMA around 1.1560–1.1574. On the upside, a reversal above 1.1800 could set the stage for 1.1850 and eventually the year-to-date high at 1.1918, while the RSI still underpins the larger-picture bullish bias by remaining below overbought. FORECAST If EUR/USD can maintain its position above the 1.1700 support and draw in new buying, the pair may recover momentum towards 1.1800. A move above this level would set the stage for additional gains towards 1.1850, with potential to test the year-to-date high at 1.1918. US data weakness and or a relaxation of political tensions in Europe may be catalysts for this rally. On the downside, persistent pressure from higher US Treasury yields and continued French political turmoil could drive EUR/USD lower. A strong breakdown below 1.1700 could reveal the September 11 low at 1.1659, with additional bears risks reaching the 100-day SMA and the August swing low in the 1.1560–1.1574 area. Bigger-than-anticipated US data would most likely speed this bearish trend.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Steadies from 10-Month Highs as Markets Watch US Retail Sales and Fed Rate Cuts

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  • September 16, 2025
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The Australian Dollar (AUD) retreated from a 10-month high of 0.6676 on Tuesday, as investors considered the forthcoming US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and US Retail Sales figures. The AUD had previously risen on hopes after a US-China trade deal on TikTok and solid domestic data, such as a strong trade surplus, solid Q2 GDP, and increasing inflation expectations. In spite of a generally risk-on sentiment in the market, AUD came under pressure from a falling US Dollar (DXY at around 97.20) and continuing speculation regarding Fed rate reductions, with markets pricing in a 25-basis-point cut in the September meeting and possible easing up to 2026. Technical analysis indicates AUD/USD trading in an upward channel, targeting 11-month highs around 0.6700, with support at 0.6621 and 0.6570. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will monitor the release closely for clues about US consumer expenditure, which will impact Fed policy expectations and USD strength. • The market is expecting a 25-basis-point cut, but any surprise or description of future easing will affect AUD/USD momentum. • The pair may challenge 11-month highs around 0.6700, with the initial support at the nine-day EMA (0.6621) and the lower boundary of the rising channel (0.6570). • Domestic Australian figures and US-China trade trends, as well as general risk appetite, will keep influencing AUD strength. Australian Dollar (AUD) softened from its 10-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as markets looked out for major economic indicators, such as US Retail Sales and the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming rate announcement. Although previous advances were aided by a US-China commercial deal on TikTok and robust Australian economic data like a healthy trade surplus and inflation expectations increasing, the AUD was pressured with a weaker US Dollar and continued speculation regarding Fed cuts. Technicals indicate AUD/USD is still within an uptrend channel, targeting possible upside to 0.6700, with lower levels near 0.6621 and 0.6570. In the aggregate, the short-term direction of the currency will depend on global risk appetite and policy actions of both Australia and the US. The Australian Dollar retreated from a 10-month high versus the US Dollar as investors waited for US Retail Sales and the Fed’s rate cut decision. Gains earlier were buoyed by upbeat Australian economic data and a US-China TikTok agreement. AUD/USD now looks toward resistance around 0.6700, with support near 0.6621. • The Australian Dollar retreated from a 10-month high of 0.6676 versus the US Dollar. • Support came from a US-China trade deal on TikTok and robust Australian economic figures. • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) indicates well-balanced risks and close inflation and consumer spending tracking. • August US Retail Sales data is a highlight upcoming event impacting the strength of USD. • Markets expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, with further easing possible through 2026. • AUD/USD is trading within an ascending channel, targeting 11-month highs near 0.6700. • Immediate support levels are at the nine-day EMA (0.6621) and the channel’s lower boundary (0.6570). The Australian Dollar (AUD) pulled back from a 10-month peak against the US Dollar (USD) as market players directed attention to coming US economic news and Federal Reserve policy actions. Previous gains were fueled by optimism after a US-China commercial deal to transfer TikTok into US hands and high domestic economic readings in Australia, such as a sound trade surplus, high Q2 GDP growth, and improving consumer inflation expectations. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers stressed the importance of a forward direction in ensuring economic stability and tracking consumer expenditure, noting confidence in maintaining inflation around target.    AUD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Global events and central bank policy continue to shape the AUD’s performance. The US Dollar has remained under pressure in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut, with the markets factoring in relief measures to buoy economic growth and prevent recessionary risks. In Australia, economic resilience and balanced risks in the outlook have capped expectations of further RBA rate cuts. While that is happening, market participants are watching broader market sentiment, such as trade news, US consumer indicators, and world economic health, which will keep influencing the currency’s near-term direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD currency pair is moving in a clearly defined upward channel, reflecting a positive market bias. The pair is now sitting above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reflecting high short-term momentum. On the positive side, the pair may aim for the 11-month high of 0.6687, then the channel top around 0.6700. On the negative side, there is initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.6621, then support at the lower edge of the rising channel around 0.6570. A fall through this channel might reverse short-term momentum and lead the pair to the 50-day EMA at 0.6535. FORECAST AUD/USD can continue to move higher towards the 11-month high of 0.6687, and then further test the upper resistance of the ascending channel around 0.6700. Encouragement from solid Australian economic data, loss of expectation for additional RBA rate cuts, and global risk-on mood can further propel it higher in the near term. To the downside, the pair may be supported by the nine-day EMA at 0.6621 and the lower line of the uptrend channel at 0.6570. A fall below these levels could destroy short-term bullish momentum, sending AUD/USD towards the 50-day EMA at 0.6535, particularly if US economic data surprises to the upside or Fed rate-cut hopes fade.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Loses Ground Prior to US CPI on Back of Fed and RBNZ Rate Projections Clouding the Kiwi

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  • September 11, 2025
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NZD/USD weakened beneath 0.5950 yesterday, easing close to 0.5930 in early European activity as the US Dollar regained poise in advance of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Investors are considering bets on future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with Barclays predicting three 25-bps cuts through the end of the year, versus the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) intention to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5% by 2025 year-end. While additional Fed cuts may help defend the Kiwi, nervousness regarding economic statistics and worldwide growth issues continues to dog the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will closely watch the August CPI data, as it could influence the USD direction and impact NZD/USD volatility. • Market sentiment is focused on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with three 25-bps reductions projected for 2025. • Any updates from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand regarding the pace of OCR reductions could affect the Kiwi’s performance. • Signs of New Zealand’s economic weakness or rebound, such as US tariff effects, can influence investor attitudes and the NZD/USD pair. NZD/USD dipped lower to near 0.5930 in early European trades on Thursday as a recovery in the US Dollar weighed ahead of the significant US CPI report for August. Traders are balancing hopes for three possible Federal Reserve rate reductions by the end of 2025, as predicted by Barclays, against Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s strategy to bring down the Official Cash Rate to 2.5% gradually by the end of the year. Unidades. Though chances of Fed easing may favor the Kiwi, continued concerns regarding New Zealand’s recovery and the challenges of global growth, such as from US tariffs, continue to cap upside for the pair. NZD/USD fell to near 0.5930 as the US Dollar gained on the eve of the release of August CPI. Market participants are waiting for Fed rate cuts and RBNZ’s OCR trajectory while cautiousness remains prevailing due to concerns about global growth. • NZD/USD retreated below 0.5950, sliding close to 0.5930 during early European trading. • The US Dollar recovered in anticipation of the release of August US CPI, weighing on the Kiwi. • Barclays is predicting three 25-bps Fed rate cuts within 2025. • Market expectations of Fed easing have increased following a softer-than-anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. • RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby expects the OCR to decline to 2.5% by the end of the year. • The timing of RBNZ rate cuts will be data- and recovery-dependent. • Global growth fears and US tariff effects can persist to drive NZD/USD volatility. NZD/USD is coming under pressure as markets prepare for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Investor sentiment is being driven by hopes of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Barclays seeing three 25-basis-point cuts through the end of 2025. The latest soft US Nonfarm Payrolls print has only added to speculation of Fed easing, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has also indicated a steady cut in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.5% by the end of the year. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby emphasized that how quickly the rate cutting will proceed hinges on new data and the overall health of New Zealand’s economic upturn. Policymakers are paying attention to global trends in growth and US tariffs affecting local businesses, which may have a bearing on future policy settings. Market participants are still careful, watching both US and New Zealand data keenly to gauge the wider prospects for the Kiwi and international financial markets. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is exhibiting a reluctant downward bias as it hovers below the 0.5950 mark, with short-term support around 0.5925. Resistance should be found around 0.5965–0.5980, where intraday highs in recent sessions have been halted. Mild bearish pressure is indicated by momentum indicators, while moving averages are converging, pointing toward potential consolidation on the horizon. Buyers and sellers alike might look for a decisive break above resistance or below support to indicate the direction of the next move, especially in response to Friday’s upcoming US CPI figures. FORECAST In the event that NZD/USD picks up, a higher Kiwi could drive the pair to the 0.5965–0.5980 resistance area. Better-than-expected New Zealand economic data or below-forecast US CPI inflation would be needed to attract risk appetite and trigger further upside momentum. A break through key levels of resistance might set the path towards 0.6000, drawing short-term traders wanting to take advantage of a reversal. On the negative side, fresh US Dollar strength or weak New Zealand economic data might pull NZD/USD down to the 0.5925 support level. Any indications of slower-than-anticipated New Zealand recovery or increased world growth fears might add bearish momentum. A break of support might speed the fall further to 0.5900, dictating caution among traders and investors in the short term.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Steady Against USD Due to BoJ-Fed Policy Convergence Capping Downside

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  • September 10, 2025
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Japanese Yen moved sideways against the US Dollar on Wednesday, burdened by a mixed bag of fundamental signals. Japanese political uncertainty and a better global risk sentiment capped the safe-haven appetite for the Yen, while a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the second half of this year provided support. At the same time, growing bets on a US Federal Reserve rate cut next week limited the Dollar’s upside. With markets awaiting key US inflation data, the USD/JPY pair is likely to remain range-bound, though the broader policy divergence suggests the downside potential for the Yen remains limited. KEY LOOKOUTS • Expectations of a BoJ rate hike by year-end versus imminent Fed rate cuts continue to shape USD/JPY dynamics. • Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation introduces uncertainty, which can delay BoJ policy normalization. • Near-term USD direction will be determined by upcoming PPI and CPI releases. • Support is located at 146.30–146.20, with resistance at 147.75–148.00, capping the pair’s upside. The Japanese Yen traded flat against the US Dollar on Wednesday in a tug-of-war between supportive and restrictive forces. On the one side, hopes that the Bank of Japan will increase interest rates later in the year, underpinned by better economic data and increasing household consumption, limit downside risks to the Yen. On the other side, political uncertainty after Prime Minister Ishiba stepped down and upbeat global risk appetite diminishes its safe-haven attractiveness. Meanwhile, the Dollar stays firm ahead of major US inflation releases, with hopes of a Fed rate cut keeping strong upside momentum at bay. Consequently, USD/JPY remains in a tight range, with markets waiting for fresh direction. Japanese Yen traded range-bound against US Dollar as expectations of BoJ rate hikes were countered by political risk and high global appetite for risk. With Fed rate cuts imminent and US inflation data pending, USD/JPY is expected to remain capped in the vicinity of important technical levels. • Japanese Yen remains range-bound against the US Dollar amidst conflicting market cues. • Political risk in Japan post-PM Ishiba’s resignation dampens the Yen. • Robust global equity markets cut safe-haven demand for JPY. • Favorable Japanese economic news and increasing household consumption boost expectations for a BoJ rate hike. • The US Federal Reserve is all but certain to lower rates at the next FOMC. • Traders wait for US PPI and CPI news for short-term direction in USD/JPY. • Important support is found at 146.30–146.20, with resistance at 147.75–148.00. The Japanese Yen is moving tentatively against the US Dollar as markets consider a combination of domestic and external factors. Domestically, hopes are rising that the Bank of Japan may increase interest rates by the year-end, amid improved recent trends in GDP growth, household consumption, and real wages. Meanwhile, political tension after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation has added a new level of uncertainty, which can briefly pause the pace of policy normalization by the BoJ. This provides the context for a sensitive balance between economic stability and political tension in dictating Yen sentiment. USD/JPY DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Worldwide, the safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen has eased with US and Asian equity markets reaching new highs, indicating the upbeat risk appetite of investors. In the meantime, the market eye is on the Federal Reserve, with markets widely expecting the beginning of a rate-cut cycle next week after softer-than-anticipated US labor market data. This Fed-BoJ policy divergence still dictates investor positioning in the currency space, with the Yen stuck in a consolidative mode as market participants wait for guidance from future US inflation releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY is still in the process of consolidation after rebounding from the 146.30 area support level, although the absence of follow-through and poor daily momentum indicators indicate minimal upside risk. Resistance is likely at the 147.75–148.00 area, which may draw new selling pressure and limit further advancement. On the downside, support is near 147.00, with a breach below paving the way for a test of the 146.30–146.20 region. A move below 146.00 would consolidate bearish grip and risk the pair lower toward 145.35 and the psychological 145.00 level. FORECAST If purchasing momentum picks up, USD/JPY may challenge the 147.75–148.00 resistance level, where it is expected that sellers will re-appear again. A firm break above this could induce short-covering, paving the way toward the 148.75 area close to the 200-day Simple Moving Average. Continued advances beyond this level would turn sentiment in the bulls’ favour and could further extend the recovery of the pair. Conversely, inability to breach the 148.00 resistance may attract fresh selling pressure. Near-term support lies at the 147.00 psychological level, with a further decline threatening the 146.30–146.20 horizontal bottom. A clean breakdown below 146.00 would be interpreted as a new bearish catalyst, underpinning the fall towards 145.35 before challenging the psychological 145.00 barrier.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Approaches 1.1800 as Fed Cut Chances Increase and French Political Uncertainty Dampens Eurozone

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  • September 9, 2025
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EUR/USD rose towards 1.1800 during Tuesday’s Asian session, its third straight day of advances, as the US Dollar dipped on hopes of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Bets in the market are for a virtual 90% likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut with only a 10% chance of a bigger 50-basis-point reduction based on softer US employment data. Eyes now switch to pivotal US inflation reports, such as PPI and CPI, that may inform the Fed’s policy direction. Meanwhile, political tension in France following a confidence vote loss by Prime Minister François Bayrou puts pressure within the Eurozone, while most traders expect the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets price in almost 90% probability of a 25 bps September reduction with 10% probability of an increased 50 bps adjustment. • PPI and CPI releases this week will play a crucial role in informing the Fed’s rate outlook. • Prime Minister François Bayrou’s confidence vote failure introduces new uncertainty in the Eurozone. • Market expects rates to be left on hold by the ECB but attention will be focused on guidance regarding future policy. EUR/USD maintained its strength on Tuesday, closing around 1.1780 as investors wait for the Federal Reserve’s decision in September, with markets heavily biased in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut and even looking at a bigger move of 50 bps. The weakness in the US Dollar, driven by weaker jobs data, has helped the pair, and coming US inflation numbers, such as PPI and CPI, will look to guide the currency further. On the European front, the Euro came under political pressure as French Prime Minister François Bayrou lost a confidence vote, creating new uncertainty, although the ECB is universally anticipated to maintain rates unchanged in its next meeting. EUR/USD hovers around 1.1780 as bets for the Fed rate cut hammer the US Dollar, with markets looking for crucial US inflation numbers this week. Eurozone uncertainty is built in due to political instability in France, while the ECB is likely to maintain rates unchanged on Thursday. • EUR/USD posts third consecutive gain, hovering around 1.1780. • US Dollar loses ground as markets become more convinced of a September Fed rate cut. • CME FedWatch instrument indicates 90% probability of a 25 bps cut, with 10% probability of a 50 bps move. • Weaker US jobs data has lifted Fed easing expectations. • Traders look to US PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday for policy signals. • French Prime Minister François Bayrou loses confidence vote, following political uncertainty. • ECB likely to leave rates steady, with attention to its forward guidance. The Euro is attracting support this week on the basis of expectations by traders for key policy and political developments on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve meeting in September is the focus, where markets overwhelmingly expect an interest rate reduction on account of recent indications of weaker labor market performance. Investors are also preparing for a series of key inflation reports, such as the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index, that may provide new information on the Fed’s future action. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView In Europe, markets are concerned with monetary policy and political unrest. The European Central Bank is expected to stand pat on rates at its next meeting, with traders watching its forecast for the remainder of the year closely. Meanwhile, France has moved into a state of uncertainty following the loss of a confidence vote by Prime Minister François Bayrou, which compelled President Emmanuel Macron to find a new chief. This combination of changing US policy expectations and Eurozone political uncertainty is directing the overall sentiment toward the Euro. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is holding strong around the 1.1780 level, continuing its recent upward trend as buyers are in charge. The currency pair has stretched its winning sequence for the third consecutive session, with support at present in the 1.1750 area, and the next major resistance level prevailing around the psychological 1.1800 level. A decisive crossing above the same could pave the way towards higher gains, while a lack of momentum may ignite a sell-off towards near-term levels of support. FORECAST Should optimistic momentum prevail, EUR/USD may see through the psychological 1.1800 level, with the next resistance at 1.1850 being in focus for buyers. More optimistic Euro sentiment can be boosted if the Federal Reserve indicates an increased determination towards loosening or if US inflation numbers are softer than anticipated, boosting confidence in further cuts in interest rates. Conversely, inability to hold above 1.1780 levels may cause EUR/USD to drop back to the 1.1750 support zone, with further falls possible towards 1.1700 depending on market sentiment shifting towards the US Dollar. Reversals in US economic news or dovish cues from the ECB might put pressure on the pair and cap additional upside gains.

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Holds Firm Above 147.50 as Trump-Fed Spat Shrouds Market Mood

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  • August 26, 2025
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Ethereum shot to a record high of $4,868, its first in some three years, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium that signaled the potential for a potential rate cut. The leading altcoin has rallied over 100% since June, powered by $9 billion in ETF inflows, corporate treasury buys of nearly 3 million ETH, and heightened institutional demand. With growing regulatory assurance and favorable technical conditions, Ethereum now sights the $6,000 mark, supported by strong momentum and investor confidence. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market mood remains on edge to political news as tensions between Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve intensify. • Investors look to the August CB Consumer Confidence report, potentially affecting near-term USD/JPY direction. • July’s 2.8% drop, while smaller than predicted, indicates weakening US demand. • Whether or not the pair can hold above 147.50 will be significant for a potential recovery, with a fall below 147.00 risking fresh selling pressure. USD/JPY fluctuated on Tuesday, dropping below 147.00 briefly before rebounding to trade above the 147.50 level as investors weighed political uncertainty against new economic data. The Trump-Fed feud, which had been ignited by Donald Trump’s claim that he had sacked Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a move she stoutly denied, put pressure on the US Dollar to cap its advances. Meanwhile, July’s Durable Goods Orders declined 2.8%, lesser than anticipated, and assisted the dollar in gaining ground. Market attention now turns to the release of the CB Consumer Confidence report for August, which may furnish additional guidance for the pair in the short term. USD/JPY rallied back above 147.50 after it fell below 147.00, with markets considering political tensions and US economic reports. The Trump-Fed spat and lower Durable Goods Orders contributed to volatility, with traders now looking ahead to August’s CB Consumer Confidence for new directions. • USD/JPY bounced back above 147.50 after falling below 147.00 during the morning. • The pair continues to come under pressure despite Monday’s robust advances. • Donald Trump asserted that he fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which heightened political tension. • Lisa Cook dismissed Trump’s assertion that he can fire her. • Durable Goods Orders during July decreased 2.8%, lower than the expected 4% drop. • The USD gained some respite from improved-than-anticipated data. • Market attention will now be on August’s CB Consumer Confidence report and Trump-Fed news. The USD/JPY currency pair was subjected to fresh volatility on Tuesday as political theatrics overshadowed sentiment. Ex-U.S. President Donald Trump whipped up controversy after saying he fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, something that Cook strongly denied by way of her lawyers, stating Trump has no such powers. This strange confrontation between politics and monetary policy was rapidly taken up as a focus for investors, spreading uncertainty and constraining the U.S. Dollar’s momentum. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the guardedly optimistic tone, U.S. economic data was mixed. The Census Bureau said that Durable Goods Orders fell 2.8% in July, although the figure was higher than forecast. While the information provided some respite, market players now look to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August, in addition to any additional updates to the Trump-Fed spat, both of which should inform investor sentiment in the coming sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY’s bounce back through the 147.50 handle indicates that buyers are trying to take charge following Tuesday’s previous dip below 147.00. The 147.00 mark now serves as immediate support, while a continuous hold above 147.50 could set the stage for 148.00 resistance. To the downside, a dip below 147.00 could stimulate fresh selling pressure, with the 146.50 area serving as the next major support area. Momentum indicators show cautious trading, with confirmation from the next batch of U.S. data before a definitive trend is established. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to hold on to its recovery over 147.50, the pair can carry gains towards the psychological 148.00 level. Better-than-anticipated CB Consumer Confidence figures or declining political uncertainty can offer the U.S. Dollar extra support. A clear break above 148.00 is set to open doors for more upside, with investors targeting higher levels of resistance in upcoming sessions. Conversely, if fresh selling pressure arises, a fall below 147.00 may initiate a more extensive correction. Further political unrest linked to the Trump-Fed feud or softer U.S. data can pressure the dollar, taking USD/JPY down into the 146.50 support area. A move below this level for an extended period may indicate a change in sentiment, leaving the pair vulnerable to more downside risks.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Stable as BoJ-Fed Policy Divergence Offset Geopolitical Hopes

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  • August 19, 2025
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Japanese Yen (JPY) remains range-bound versus the US Dollar (USD) as conflicting fundamental signals remain vigilant. The hawkish policy by the Bank of Japan and prospects of a rate increase by the end of the year underpin the JPY, while the hoped-for rate cuts in September by the US Federal Reserve showcase an abrupt policy divergence. But hope for a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement undermines safe-haven demand, capping Yen’s gains. Market players now anticipate major events, such as the publication of FOMC Minutes, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and worldwide PMI releases, for new guidance in the USD/JPY cross. KEY LOOKOUTS • Hopes of a year-end BoJ rate increase are in contrast with the Fed’s forecasted September rate reduction, supporting JPY. • Expectations of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement diminish safe-haven appetite, serving as a headwind for the Yen. • Global Flash PMIs on Thursday and US housing statistics may impact sentiment and USD demand. • FOMC Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will be important to set expectations around the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory and USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen is still trading in a range against the US Dollar as investors balance contrasting monetary policy directions and geopolitical events. Although the hawkish tone of the Bank of Japan and expectations for a year-end rate hike support the JPY, the Federal Reserve’s planned September rate cut highlights a stark policy divergence. Nevertheless, hopes for a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement have eased safe-haven demand, limiting Yen appreciation. Traders then shift their attention to pivotal drivers such as FOMC Minutes, Fed Chair Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and international PMI announcements for better indications on the USD/JPY pair’s next direction. Japanese Yen holds in a narrow range as BoJ’s hawkish rhetoric is pitted against the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts. Geopolitical optimism regarding a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement keeps safe-haven demand muted, while soon-to-be-released Fed cues and PMI readings will dictate USD/JPY direction. • The Japanese Yen continues to be held within a three-week trading band versus the US Dollar. • The Bank of Japan will be expected to raise interest rates by year-end, underpinning JPY strength. • The Federal Reserve is widely expected to start reducing rates in September, leading to a steep policy divergence. • Hopes for a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement diminishes safe-haven demand for the Yen. • Japan’s better-than-expected Q2 economic growth leaves the door ajar for BoJ tightening. • Investors are following FOMC Minutes, the Jackson Hole speech by Powell, and US housing releases closely for USD signals. • Charts indicate resistance at 148.00 and support at 147.00, a break either way poised to determine the new trend. The Japanese Yen is well within a tight range against the US Dollar with investors weighing conflicting monetary policy expectations with changing global sentiment. The Bank of Japan has indicated normalization policy commitment as markets look for an eventual rate hike by the end of the year. Such a position is informed by better-than-projected domestic growth and updated inflation projections, pointing to Japan’s resilience in its economy in the face of external shocks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is set to initiate its rate-cutting cycle in September, adding to a sharp policy contrast between the two central banks. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Simultaneously, geopolitical events are setting the tone for risk appetite and demand for safe-haven assets such as the Yen. Hopes of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, stoked by plans for top-level talks, have relieved some investor angst and cut safe-haven flows into the JPY. Market participants are now paying close attention to significant events like FOMC Minutes releases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole later this week, and international PMI numbers, which are likely to give better cues about worldwide economic momentum and dictate the next direction in the USD/JPY price. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY also remains to consolidate in a clearly defined band, with the 148.00 level being a significant resistance on the upside and the 147.00 area providing near-term support. A break above 148.00 could potentially pave the way for additional advances towards the 148.55–148.60 area and maybe even the psychological 149.00 level. On the other hand, a fall below 147.00 would risk exposing the pair to lower losses toward the support zone around 146.20, with a fall beneath 146.00 turning the bias in favor of bearish momentum. Overall, the range-bound nature accentuates indecision, and traders would prefer waiting for a firm breakout before positioning for the subsequent trend. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to resist below the 148.00 resistance, it may draw new buying pressure, opening the door to a move higher towards the 148.55–148.60 area, which is a key retracement point. A clean break above this area would propel bullish energy and take the pair toward the 149.00 psychological level, where additional gains might be tested based on Fed commentary and sentiment. Conversely, if the pair is unable to maintain the uptrend and drops below the 147.10–147.00 support level, selling interest may become more significant, and the 146.20 area reached last week may come under threat. A break below this level would shift the bias to the sellers’ advantage, and the pair would become susceptible to re-testing the 146.00 level, with potential for further losses if safe-haven buying returns or Fed policy expectations move more dovishly.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Falls to 1.3800 as Dovish Fed Outlook, Trade Tariff Risks Deter Dollar

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  • August 18, 2025
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USD/CAD dropped towards 1.3800 in Monday’s Asian session as dovish hopes surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting dented the US Dollar. Weaker US economic reports, such as falls in consumer sentiment, and slower retail sales growth, solidified expectations for a Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s widened tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductor imports further clouded the US outlook. The Bank of Canada, in contrast, has less need to rush policy easing, with its trimmed mean inflation maintaining at 3% in June, leading it to remain cautious notwithstanding the recent rate cuts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Weaker US data reinforces market expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. • Trump’s extension of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductors has the potential to spur additional economic headwinds. • Canada’s trimmed mean inflation at 3% dampens pressure for the Bank of Canada to accelerate rate cuts. • The pair is near 1.3800, losing impetus following two successive days of advances, with sentiment leaning against the US Dollar. USD/CAD dipped lower to the vicinity of 1.3800 on Monday as dovish speculation about the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory put pressure on the US Dollar. Downbeat US data, such as decreased consumer sentiment and weaker retail sales, contributed to rate cut speculation in September, while freshly widened US tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductors posed additional negative risks. Conversely, the inflation of Canada is still sticky at 3% based on the trimmed mean metric, leaving the Bank of Canada with not much hurry to re-start easing after its July rate reduction, thus offering some relative support to the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD fell to close to 1.3800 as dovish Fed hopes and softer US data weighed on the Dollar. That said, Canada’s solid 3% trimmed mean inflation took the heat out of further aggressive BoC rate cuts, providing some support to the Loonie. • USD/CAD fell back to close to 1.3800 in Monday’s Asian trading after two consecutive days of gains. • Dovish Fed expectations increased with weaker US consumer sentiment and softer retail sales information hinting at a September rate cut. • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 58.6 in August, below expectations of 62.0 and from July’s 61.7. • US Retail Sales slowed, increasing 0.5% in July compared to 0.9% in June, affirming cooling demand. • Trump administration widened tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductor imports, introducing economic uncertainty. • Trimmed mean inflation in Canada was at 3% in June, remaining wary of the Bank of Canada even after a July cut to 2.75%. • Relative policy divergence between the Fed and BoC favored the Canadian Dollar versus the US Dollar. • The USD/CAD is trading around 1.3800 on a change in market mood based on expectations about monetary policies in the US and Canada. Recent US statistics, such as diminished consumer sentiment and decelerating retail sales, have spurred speculation that the Fed could proceed with a rate cut in September. Concurrently, the Trump administration’s announcement of expanding tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductors has placed increased pressure on the economic picture, worrying traders and investors. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Canadian inflation continues high, with the Bank of Canada’s trimmed mean gauge still at 3% in June. Although the central bank reduced its policy rate to 2.75% in July, policymakers have taken a cautious tone on future action. Persistent service prices and risk premia embedded in global trade tensions make it less likely that the BoC will be in a hurry to offer further easing. This conservative position lends the Canadian Dollar a relative strength, even as underlying economic woes continue to unfold in both economies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is respecting the 1.3800 psychological level, where nearby support is apparent. A consistent break below this can open up more losses towards the 1.3760–1.3740 area. To the upside, resistance lines up around 1.3840–1.3860, followed by the 1.3900 handle, which continues to be a major hurdle for buyers. The general bias remains tilted in favor of weakness as long as the pair remains below the 1.3900 handle, with the traders keeping a keen eye on whether the pair can hold at support or continue its corrective trend. FORECAST If USD/CAD can hold at or above the 1.3800 support region, a bounce could be observed towards the 1.3840–1.3860 resistance zone. A clean break above this range would likely set the stage for a test of the 1.3900 handle, which is still a major obstacle for additional bullish pressure. Improved US data or any alteration in Fed speak away from imminent rate cuts could also be a source of support for the US Dollar, pushing the pair higher. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.3800 would probably attract additional selling pressure, taking the pair down to 1.3760 and then 1.3740 levels. A clean break below these supports might prolong the fall towards 1.3700, indicating greater weakness in the near term. Weaker US economic releases or escalating trade tensions can support the bearish outlook, with preference for further Canadian Dollar gains against the US Dollar.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Jumps to Three-Week High as BoJ’s Hawkish Tone Disadvantages Soft USD

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  • August 14, 2025
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Japanese Yen jumped to a three-week high versus a relatively soft US Dollar on Thursday, its third consecutive day of increase, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve developing differing monetary policy outlooks pushed demand for the safe-haven currency. Increasingly anticipation of further BoJ policy normalization and interest rate hikes by year-end was offset by increasing bets of a September Fed rate cut, leaving the USD on the back foot. Although risk-on mood and worries over Japan’s decelerating real wage growth might dampen further advances, the overall market environment continues to be skewed in favor of JPY bulls, with the market waiting for the next US Producer Price Index prints and Japan’s Preliminary Q2 GDP for new direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • BoJ hawkishness vs. expected September Fed rate cuts remains supportive of JPY strength. •  US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Japan’s Preliminary Q2 GDP will be driving factors for USD/JPY action. • Consistent break below 147.00 SMA could fasten downward momentum towards 146.00 and 145.30 support levels. • Strong equity markets globally could limit safe-haven buying, but underlying JPY bullishness is intact. Japanese Yen continued its three-session rally on Thursday by rising to a three-week high against a generally weaker US Dollar as policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve fueled market flows. Bets that the BoJ will continue to hike rates by the end of the year, defying fear over poor wage growth and possible economic pressures, were sharply contrasted with increased wagers for a rate cut from the Fed in September. Though optimistic global risk appetite has supported equity markets, it has had scant impact on curbing demand for the safe-haven JPY, which remains supported ahead of influential US PPI data and Japan’s Preliminary Q2 GDP release. Japanese Yen rose to a three-week high, buoyed by predictions of additional BoJ rate increases and weakening US Dollar amidst hanging bets for Fed rate cuts. Market participants now await US PPI and Japan’s Q2 GDP releases for new market direction. • Japanese Yen rises for the third straight day to a three-week high against the USD. • BoJ set to maintain policy normalization by possibly raising rates by the end of the year. • US Dollar is burdened with September Fed rate cut expectations. • Risk-on mood does not penetrate robust demand for the safe-haven JPY. • Real wages in Japan drop for the sixth consecutive month, worrying about economic recovery. • Technical breakdown below 147.00 SMA can potentially set the stage for 146.00 and 145.30 supports. • US Producer Price Index and Japan’s Preliminary Q2 GDP are watched for new direction by traders. The Japanese Yen continued its three-day winning streak on Thursday, as the currency moved higher for a third day against a weaker US Dollar. The strength of the currency was largely fueled by growing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. Investors are growing more and more convinced that the BoJ will continue along its track of policy normalization, with an interest rate increase likely within the year. This is in marked contrast to bets in the market that the Fed would reduce interest rates in September, a sentiment underpinned by weaker US economic data and moderating inflationary pressures. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In spite of overall favorable global risk sentiment that has driven stock markets to new highs, safe-haven demand for the Yen continues to be strong. Apprehensions regarding Japan’s domestic economy—underscored by six straight months of falling real wages and decelerating corporate goods price inflation—have not dissuaded optimistic sentiment towards the currency. The traders now focus on future economic data releases, such as the US Producer Price Index and Japan’s Preliminary Q2 GDP, that may bring new insights regarding the economic environment and future policy action by both the central banks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY’s continuous break and acceptance below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, near the 147.00 level, indicates a bearish inclination for the pair. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heading towards oversold levels, indicating that there is a chance of a temporary consolidation or weak rebound before more selling. Any attempted rebound is set to meet stiff resistance at the 147.00 level, now serving as a pivotal level. A bold fall below current lows would expose the market to a decline towards 146.00, with further support levels at 145.40-145.30 and then the 145.00 psychological level. FORECAST If USD/JPY is able to regain and hold above the 147.00 resistance-turned-support, a short-covering bounce could play out, driving the pair to the 147.45–147.50 area. A breach of this area might see more buying interest, setting the stage for a drive to the 148.00 psychological mark. This positive scenario would probably need more robust US data, bullish Fed commentaries, or a slowdown in BoJ rate hike expectations. Conversely, sustained pressure below 147.00 would maintain the bearish momentum and create room for a slide towards the July 24 low of 146.00. A clean break below this level might fuel losses towards the 145.40–145.30 support level, with the 145.00 level being the next significant downside target. Deteriorating US data or reiterating of BoJ’s hawkish policies would reinforce this bearish expectation.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebound as Dovish Mixed US CPI Keeps September Fed Rate Cut Speculation Alive

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  • August 12, 2025
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The Euro reclaimed its losses against the US Dollar on Tuesday, rising to about 1.1630 and ending a two-day losing streak following mixed US inflation reports. July’s headline CPI increased in accordance with forecasts at 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY, while core inflation unexpectedly beat forecasts at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Even sturdier core readings, markets still expect a Federal Reserve rate reduction in September, aided by softening overall inflation pressures and a weaker jobs market. In the Euro area, sentiment fell sharply, with Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index down more than anticipated, although words of ECB policymakers implying that rates are still at a proper level provided some support for the common unit. KEY LOOKOUTS • Headline inflation eased as predicted, but core inflation surprised to the upside, providing a cautionary note for Fed policy. • Markets continue to price in a September rate cut even after the hotter reading of core. • German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment indicators plummeted, reflecting sustained growth difficulties. • ECB policymakers assert interest rates are at a “very good level,” suggesting policy room during economic uncertainties. Euro made gains against the US Dollar on Tuesday to reach about 1.1630 after conflicting US inflation data cooled recent bearish pressure. Although July’s headline CPI was as forecast and improved marginally on the year figure, core inflation unexpectedly hardened on the upside to show continued pressures. Despite this, investors are still hopeful the Federal Reserve will proceed with a September rate cut, as weaker overall inflation and a slowing labor market leave scope for policy relaxation. In the Eurozone, mood worsened significantly, with Germany’s ZEW survey indicating increased growth concerns, though assurances from ECB officials that the central bank is to stay flexible provided some support to the currency. The Euro surged to near 1.1630 following mixed US CPI data, with markets remaining bullish on a September Fed rate cut even as core inflation was hotter. Sluggish Eurozone sentiment dragged the outlook down, but supportive comments from ECB officials contained the downside pressure. • The Euro surged to near 1.1630, ending a two-day losing trend following mixed US inflation data. •  US July headline CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.7% YoY. •  Core CPI was above forecast at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, reflecting continued price pressures. •  Markets continue to widely anticipate the Federal Reserve to reduce rates in September even as core readings strengthened. •  German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index declined sharply to 34.7 in August from 52.7 in July. •  Sentiment across the Eurozone also declined, reflecting ongoing economic headwinds. •  ECB officials indicated rates are at a “very good level” and stressed flexibility in adapting to evolving conditions. The Euro firmed on Tuesday as uneven US inflation data provided some respite for the currency, aiding it to rebound from recent losses. July’s headline CPI was in line with expectations at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating that price growth is slowing in line with expectation. Yet, core inflation, which strips out food and energy, was a touch higher than expected, indicating that underlying price pressures persist. In spite of this, market participants still expect a September Federal Reserve rate cut as decelerating headline inflation and evidence of a softening labor market provide room for policymakers to maneuver. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Europe, the economic sentiment continued to be soft, with the recent ZEW survey indicating a sharp decline in confidence in Germany and the wider Eurozone. The fall underscores continued worries of weak growth and repeated headwinds in the bloc’s biggest economy. However, words from ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel, suggesting interest rates are at a “very good level” and the bank has the flexibility to adjust if necessary, gave some comfort. Although there are still uncertainties—most notably over trade tensions—the comments gave some stability to the euro’s outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD bounced back to the 1.1630 area after hitting support close to recent lows, indicating short-term demand. The recovery in the pair keeps it above crucial support levels of 1.1600, while near resistance is located close to 1.1650, followed by the 1.1700 handle. A breakout above these hurdles on a sustained basis may allow further up move, while a fall below 1.1600 may lead to the next support at 1.1570. Momentum indicators are stabilizing, suggesting possible consolidation prior to the next directional shift. FORECAST Short term, EUR/USD may experience modest gains if sentiment continues to support a September rate cut by the Fed. A continued break above the 1.1650 resistance range should set the stage for 1.1700, with more pronounced bullish momentum likely taking it to 1.1750. Encouraging Eurozone news or dovish Fed commentary could propel the rally further. The downside is, however, that if US economic statistics improve or Fed policymakers turn dovish on easing, the pair can expect to see fresh selling pressure. A fall below 1.1600 would bring into focus the 1.1570 and 1.1540 support levels. Poor Eurozone data or increased geopolitical tensions can fuel bearish activity in the sessions to come.

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