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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Weakens near 0.5900 due to Poor NZ GDP and USD Post-FOMC Recovery Hurting Kiwi

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  • September 18, 2025
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NZD/USD continued to fall for the second consecutive day, plummeting towards the 0.5900 mark after New Zealand’s Q2 GDP fell by 0.9%, much lower than forecasts. The poor numbers stoked expectations of additional RBNZ rate cuts, taking a heavy toll on the Kiwi, while the US Dollar recovered from multi-year lows in the post-FOMC session, further exerting downward pressure. Bears currently target a decisive break below 0.5900 to validate further declines, with initial support at 0.5875 and further targets around 0.5835 and 0.5800. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Q2 GDP fall of 0.9% places additional pressure on the RBNZ to weigh up additional rate cuts, suppressing the Kiwi. • The US Dollar’s recovery after the FOMC from multi-year lows still puts pressure on NZD/USD to the downside. • A continued dip below the 0.5900 level, supported by significant Fibonacci and moving average resistance, may initiate deeper losses. • Any bounce attempts are confronted with instant resistance at 0.5935–0.5960, with tougher barriers at 0.6000 and higher. NZD/USD is facing intense selling pressure, ranging near the 0.5900 confluence point as downbeat New Zealand GDP news and a stronger US Dollar bear heavily on the pair. The more-than-anticipated 0.9% Q2 GDP slump boosted expectations of more RBNZ rate cuts, weakening sentiment against the Kiwi. In contrast, the USD is gaining traction on post-FOMC rebound, lending further support to the bearish bias. Any break below 0.5900 may pave the way for further losses, while any bounce will be likely to be resisted around 0.5935–0.5960 and at the 0.6000 psychological level. NZD/USD is trading under pressure at 0.5900 after New Zealand’s Q2 GDP fell sharply, increasing hopes of RBNZ rate cuts. The pair is also facing additional downside pressures from a rising US Dollar, and the bears are looking to break below key technical levels for additional losses. • NZD/USD declines for a second consecutive day, underpinned by soft local data and a rising USD. • Q2 NZ GDP contracted 0.9% QoQ, worse than the forecast 0.3% fall, reversing last quarter’s expansion. • Rate cut expectations increase for the RBNZ, further weighing on New Zealand Dollar demand. • USD strengthens on FOMC recovery from multi-year lows, adding to Kiwi weakness. • A crucial support at 0.5900 coincides with the 200-period SMA (4H) and 50% Fibonacci retracement. • Further downside levels are at 0.5875, 0.5835, and the 0.5800 August swing low. • Upside resistance is at 0.5935–0.5960, with firmer hurdles at 0.6000 and 0.6045. The New Zealand Dollar fell under renewed pressure after the nation’s economy posted a steep contraction in the second quarter. Statistics New Zealand posted a 0.9% slump in GDP, significantly worse than the anticipated 0.3% fall, reversing the previous quarter’s growth. Disappointing results have fuelled fears over the health of the New Zealand economy and heightened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could turn to further interest rate cuts in the months ahead. This change of sentiment has been a heavy burden on investor confidence, pushing demand away from the Kiwi. NZD/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps firming as it consolidates its post-FOMC bounce from multi-year lows. Market players are recalibrating expectations on US monetary policy, and the greenback’s confidence returns following the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy stance. The increasing policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Fed is pressuring the New Zealand Dollar, and it is hard for the pair to establish sustainable support. Market participants are on edge, eyeing future economic data and central bank statements for additional guidance regarding the move of the currency pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is also perched at the key 0.5900 confluence point, where the 200-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally meet. Oscillators on the daily chart have started to turn south, which reflects increasing bearish pressure. A clean break below this level may fuel the decline towards the 0.5875 and 0.5835 supports, while the upside has key resistance at 0.5935–0.5960, followed by the psychological 0.6000 barrier. FORECAST NZD/USD is still susceptible to weakness as poor local growth numbers and heightened RBNZ rate-cut expectations bear down on the Kiwi. A clear fall below the 0.5900 support level may open the door to further losses, with 0.5875 and 0.5835 serving as critical downside targets. Further descent towards the 0.5800 August swing low cannot be discounted if bearish pressure intensifies. Conversely, if the pair can hold through the 0.5900 level and regain its upward momentum, a rebound towards 0.5935–0.5960 is likely. Persistent strength above these levels would set up a retest of the 0.6000 psychological level. A breach above 0.6000 would send sentiment increasingly positive, clearing the way for further gains towards 0.6045 and potentially the 0.6100–0.6120 area.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies as Traders Wait for US Jobs Data and Services PMI for Fed Policy Hints

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  • September 4, 2025
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EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls as the primary driver for Fed policy expectations. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and soft US JOLTS job openings have fueled speculation of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, now priced at almost 97%. Traders, however, are reluctant to take large positions, fearing upside surprises in future labor market reports, leaving the Euro exposed within its established range of support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. KEY LOOKOUTS • The ADP Employment Change and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will be pivotal in determining expectations for a September Fed rate cut. • Disappointing July retail sales reflect sluggish consumption, weighing on Euro sentiment. • Market expectations of a September rate cut jumped to 97%, with additional cuts possible in the coming months. • Support is at 1.1610–1.1590, while resistance is at 1.1680–1.1735, keeping EUR/USD stuck within its recent range. The EUR/USD pair is trading steady around 1.1650 as investors are cautious ahead of the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls set to be the primary driver for near-term direction. Weak Eurozone retail sales data put pressure on the Euro, while soft US labor market signals and dovish Fed comments have boosted expectations of a September rate cut. Despite easing debt concerns and falling bond yields, traders are reluctant to take large bets until more clarity is provided by upcoming US data, leaving the pair fluctuating within its recent support and resistance levels. EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1650 as markets wait for US jobs and services data for Fed policy hints. Weaker Eurozone retail sales and softer US labor signals keep the pair range-bound, with traders cautious ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • EUR/USD trades around 1.1650 ahead of the US session, without clear direction. •  Eurozone retail sales declined 0.5% in July, deeper than anticipated, weighing on the Euro. • US JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest in almost a year, indicating labor market weakness. • Fed rate cut expectations jumped to 97% for September, driven by weak economic data and dovish Fed rhetoric. • ADP Employment Change forecast at 65K, down from July’s 104K, raising job creation concerns. • ISM Services PMI forecast at 51.0, indicating modest improvement in US service sector activity. • Technical range continues with support at 1.1585–1.1610 and resistance around 1.1680–1.1735. The Euro is finding it difficult to gain traction as investors continue to focus on upcoming US economic data releases that are likely to offer clearer signals on Federal Reserve policy. A sharper-than-anticipated fall in Eurozone retail sales has weighed on sentiment, with weak consumer demand across the region. Meanwhile, softer US labor market signals, including a fall in job openings to the lowest level in almost a year, have supported expectations of Fed easing. Market participants are closely monitoring the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data, while Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be the most influential event for the week. EUR/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Broader market sentiment has stabilized following recent worries about global debt levels, with easing bond yields offering some comfort to investors. Fed officials have signaled the possibility of rate cuts beginning as early as September, which has supported bets on a more accommodative stance in the coming months. However, traders are still cautious, shying away from large positions until there is more clarity from the US jobs data. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD is likely to remain stable, with investor attention firmly on economic releases that could redefine expectations for monetary policy in the US and Europe. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD continues to be contained within a well-defined range, without a decisive breakout. Immediate support is at 1.1610, with a firmer floor between 1.1575 and 1.1590, an area that has consistently stopped bearish advances in recent weeks. A deeper fall could test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1565, followed by the August low around 1.1530. On the upside, resistance is lined up at 1.1682, with further hurdles at the descending trendline around 1.1725 and the 1.1735 zone, which capped gains several times in August and early September. Until a clear move above these levels is made, the pair is likely to continue consolidating within its established limits. FORECAST If US labor data in the coming days confirms a sharper slowdown in employment, EUR/USD could gain traction as markets fully price in a September Fed rate cut. Softer-than-anticipated ADP or Nonfarm Payrolls reports would weaken the Dollar, paving the way for a recovery towards 1.1680 initially. A sustained break above this level could encourage further bullish momentum towards the descending trendline around 1.1725–1.1735, where firmer resistance lies. Alternatively, a stronger-than-anticipated US jobs report could dampen rate-cut expectations, strengthening the Dollar and putting pressure on the Euro. In that event, EUR/USD may slide towards the 1.1610 area, with a break below exposing the key support zone at 1.1575–1.1590. If selling gathers pace, further downside could target the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1565 and eventually the August low around 1.1530.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Closes Week Higher on US-EU Trade Hopes and Dovish Data Combination

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  • July 26, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair closed the week almost 1% up, boosted by increased hopes for a US-EU trade deal before the August 1 deadline. All the while, even as weak US economic data, such as a precipitous decline in Durable Goods Orders, dampened the mood, it was softened by robust jobless claims and waning concerns about aggressive Fed policy. Concurrently, the European Central Bank left rates unchanged, affirming a prudential, data-driven approach. As financial markets look ahead to next week’s critical Federal Reserve gathering, as well as major US and EU economic reports, the EUR/USD hovers in the 1.1750 region, with sentiment still cautiously bullish. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Markets are looking for the Fed to leave rates unchanged; any surprise change in tone would ignite volatility in EUR/USD. • Major indicators such as Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and Nonfarm Payrolls will provide new information about the US economic landscape and inflation trend. • Future releases will contribute to expectations of future ECB actions and eurozone economic stability. • Any news or delays in the proposed trade deal may have a direct bearing on market mood and the strength of the euro. The EUR/USD currency pair closed the week higher by almost 1% on increasing optimism over the prospects of a US–EU trade deal and subdued expectations of Fed-inspired monetary tightening. Although US Durable Goods Orders plummeted, improving jobless claims data and evidence of robust core business investment cushioned sentiment. On the European side, the ECB left rates unchanged, echoing a defensive, meeting-by-meeting stance in the face of internal dissent. With the pair converging close to 1.1750, traders now focus on a high-impact week of activity ahead, highlighted by the Fed’s policy rate decision, significant US economic releases, and inflation and GDP numbers out of the eurozone. EUR/USD closed the week on a high note, fueled by trade optimism and steadfast labor market statistics in the US. The pair now looks to the Fed’s next rate decision and major economic indicators from both areas. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish as traders search for new directional signals. • EUR/USD gained close to 1% this week, closing at about 1.1741, on the back of trade optimism despite mixed US economic figures. •  US Durable Goods Orders fell by 9.6%, but solid jobless claims and core investment numbers softened the negative effect. •  The ECB left interest rates steady at 2%, sticking to a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting strategy despite policy discord. •  Trade sentiment soared after news of possible US–EU agreement prior to the August 1 deadline boosted demand for the euro. • US President Trump estimated a 50-50 possibility of a deal with the EU, although threats of higher tariffs still remain. • Technical analysis indicates EUR/USD consolidating around 1.1750 with resistance at 1.1800 and support at 1.1714. • The important events for next week are the Fed rate decision, US Q2 GDP, Core PCE, Nonfarm Payrolls, and EU inflation and GDP data—all expected to dictate market direction. The EUR/USD currency pair finished the week stronger, supported by hope for a future US–EU trade deal and a generally stable macroeconomic environment. Expectations for a breakthrough in trade talks picked up steam after reports indicated that both parties are close to a deal before the August 1 deadline. Encouraging remarks by US President Donald Trump, along with previous reports of a completed trade agreement with Japan, worked to fortify market confidence. Meanwhile, even in the face of some disappointing US economic releases—like the plunge in Durable Goods Orders—investor morale proved to be resilient, partly due to firm jobless claims and ongoing indicators of the strength of the labor market. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the Eurozone, interest rates were held as forecast by the European Central Bank, as they stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance. Central bankers seem torn on the direction of monetary policy going forward, a nod to uncertainty in the wider economic environment. As for the eurozone economic calendar, it was relatively tranquil this week but will be busier in the days ahead with marquee data releases in store, including inflation and GDP readings from large economies such as Germany and Spain. These events, together with the much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting in the US, are expected to dictate investor expectations and determine the near-term trend of the euro. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is consolidating in the region of 1.1750 following a weekly high of 1.1788, just short of the critical psychological resistance of 1.1800. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still bullish but at risk of losing further momentum as it heads into neutral levels. A fall below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.1714 may lead to a move towards the 1.1700 support, with additional loss exposing the 50-day SMA level of 1.1556. On the higher side, a strong break above 1.1800 would target the year-to-date high of 1.1829, followed by possible resistance at 1.1850. FORECAST If the positive momentum is sustained, especially bolstered by positive results from the forthcoming US–EU trade talks and sound economic data from the eurozone, EUR/USD may break above the 1.1800 resistance level. A successful break-through might open the way for a test of the year-to-date high at 1.1829. Apart from that, additional bullish extension may aim at the subsequent resistance level of 1.1850, particularly if the Federal Reserve indicates a pause or even a dovish direction at its July 30 decision. Better eurozone GDP and inflation readings may also underpin long-term upward pressure. Conversely, should trade negotiations break down or US indicators like GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls surprise to the higher side, bolstering the US Dollar, EUR/USD may face fresh selling pressure. A decline below the 1.1714 20-day SMA would likely expose the 1.1700 psychological support. Further weakness may take the pair down to the 50-day SMA around 1.1556. Also, any Fed hawkish turn or any disappointing economic data from the eurozone can further favor the bears in sentiment in the short term.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Forecast: Bearish Momentum Continues Below 1.3750 on Dovish Fed and Geopolitical Quietness

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  • June 24, 2025
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USD/CAD currency pair remains in a bearish tendency, trading close to 1.3720 during early European trading on Tuesday. The downward trend is fueled by a weaker US Dollar, under pressure due to a truce between Iran and Israel as well as dovish utterances from the US Federal Reserve, with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman suggesting that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in July. Technically, the pair is still below the 100-day EMA and bears bearish momentum with the RSI in the low zone. Critical support is at 1.3635, while resistance is at 1.3820, maintaining the bearish outlook in place unless a decisive breakout above key resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A break below this level may trigger further decline to 1.3575 and 1.3540. • The pair has to break this level in order to test higher resistance at 1.3862 and 1.3935. • Being below the 100-day EMA and the RSI below 50 implies persistent bearish pressure. • Any additional indications of Fed rate cuts would bear down on the US Dollar and add to CAD strength. The USD/CAD currency pair is still under bearish pressure as it hovers close to 1.3720 in early European trade, pressured by dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve and de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A short-term ceasefire between Iran and Israel has curbed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s mention of a possible July rate cut has contributed to weakness in USD. Technically, the pair remains below the 100-day EMA and the RSI is below the neutral 50 mark, adding credence to a bearish bias. Traders are watching the pivotal support level of 1.3635, with more significant downside risks on a break below this zone. USD/CAD is trading around 1.3720 in a bearish fashion with a weaker US Dollar and dovish Fed cues. The pair remains below the 100-day EMA, and the support is at 1.3635 while the resistance is at 1.3820. Breaking below support may lead to further losses down to 1.3575. • USD/CAD is trading around 1.3720 in early European trading, and it continues to be in a bearish mood. •  The pair remains below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, indicating bearish pressure. • RSI lingers below the 50 level, supporting weak bullish momentum. • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman suggested a potential July rate cut, pressuring the US Dollar. • Geopolitical tensions subside as Iran-Israel ceasefire comes into effect, cutting safe-haven demand. • Support is at 1.3635, then 1.3575 and 1.3540 on sustained losses. • The resistance is at 1.3820; breaking above it could pave the way to 1.3862 and 1.3935. The USD/CAD pair is under pressure following the changing geopolitical and monetary policy trends. An agreement for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran has mitigated market tensions, leading to moving away from safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar. This development has benefited commodity currencies such as the Canadian Dollar, particularly as global energy markets react to lower supply disruption risk. The diplomatic progress has introduced some stability into markets, which has enabled investors to begin to concentrate once again on economic fundamentals and central bank cues. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Compounding the US Dollar’s weakness are dovish indications emanating from the Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s rhetoric hinting at a willingness to cut rates in July has fueled hopes of a more accommodative policy. The change of tone is weakening demand for the Greenback and adding to the Canadian Dollar’s strength. As sentiment adjusts to the prospect of lower US interest rates and diminished geopolitical risk, USD/CAD can continue to be pressured unless later economic data turns the outlook drastically. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has a bearish inclination as it moves below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is one of the most important medium-term trend direction indicators. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also below the middle of the neutral 50 level at 47.75, indicating diminishing bullish momentum. The pair is immediately supported at 1.3635, the June 18 low, then at 1.3575 just below the lower Bollinger Band and 1.3540, the June 16 low. On the other side, resistance is at 1.3820, consistent with the upper Bollinger Band. An extended advance above this level may set the stage for a challenge of 1.3862 and possibly the 100-day EMA at 1.3935. FORECAST The USD/CAD currency pair is expected to stay pressured if it remains below the 100-day EMA and is unable to regain buying momentum. Breakout below the near-term support of 1.3635 may initiate further losses to 1.3575, which serves as the lower edge of the Bollinger Band. Should bearish sentiment continue, the next substantial support is at 1.3540, the low made on June 16. Further US Dollar weakness on account of dovish Fed rhetoric and calm geopolitical tensions could speed up the breakdown move. Conversely, a rebound above the 1.3820 resistance level would alter the mood toward a short-term bullish reversal. If the duo is able to hold above this area, it can draw buying interest and move towards 1.3862, the May 29 high. Another break above it could set the stage towards the pivotal 100-day EMA level of 1.3935. Upside risk, though, remains limited unless backed by a more robust US Dollar or a change in risk appetite.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Under Pressure: Further Declines Possible Amid Weakening Upward Momentum

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  • June 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair is exhibiting symptoms of further weakness as recent price movements indicate a bearish bias. Following the breach below the critical 1.3500 support line and a dip to a low of 1.3458, the Pound is exposed to the US Dollar. Though oversold conditions may restrict near-term downside to a retest of 1.3460, UOB Group analysts warn that a clear breach below 1.3420 would set the stage for further losses. Resistance zones lie at 1.3525 and 1.3555, with the overall bearish bias intact unless GBP/USD rises above the formidable resistance at 1.3580. KEY LOOKOUTS • Support at 1.3460 is immediate, with a stronger level at 1.3420; a break through here could initiate further downside. • Resistance on the upside is capped by 1.3525 and 1.3555, with strong resistance at 1.3580. • Tentative pickup in downward momentum implies sustained bearish bias, notwithstanding present oversold levels. • Continuation of trading below 1.3500 confirms diminishing upward momentum, raising risk of further declines to 1.3420 and lower. GBP/USD currency pair continues to experience selling pressure as recent price action reflects a change towards a bearish trend. Following the breaking of key 1.3500 support level, the pair fell to 1.3458 before slightly rebounding. Although oversold conditions suggest limited near-term downside, analysts caution that a prolonged break below 1.3420 would bring about further decline. On the positive side, resistance points at 1.3525, 1.3555, and the more important barrier at 1.3580 could cap any resulting bounce, preserving the overall bearish bias for the moment. GBP/USD continues to be pressured after falling through the 1.3500 support point, hitting lows around 1.3458. Though oversold markets can inhibit near-term losses, a break below 1.3420 might prompt losses to extend. Most important resistance levels are still 1.3525 and 1.3580. • GBP/USD fell below the pivotal 1.3500 level, its low at 1.3458. • Pair’s current market sentiment is negative. • Levels to watch for support are 1.3460 and 1.3420. • Levels of resistance are located at 1.3525, 1.3555, and 1.3580. • Oversold markets might put a cap on immediate decline, but the bearish momentum continues. • Economic announcements, central bank policy, and world sentiment remain in charge of directing the market. • A drop below 1.3420 would prompt further declines, and a breakout above 1.3580 would reduce selling pressure. The recent activity on GBP/USD mirrors market sentiment shaped by economic releases, central bank actions, and world financial conditions. The Pound Sterling has been responding to changes in investors’ confidence, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations, particularly in terms of interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Market participants also continue to watch macroeconomic data like inflation, employment, and GDP growth that continue to influence the direction of both currencies. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market mood is also influenced by wider risk drivers such as global trade patterns, geopolitics, and appetite for risk assets on the part of investors. Shifts in these drivers can trigger shifts in currency flows, with traders rebalancing in response. As ever, forthcoming economic data releases and the words of central bankers will be keenly in the spotlight, providing additional insight into the likely direction of GBP/USD over the next several weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD’s decline from recent levels below 1.3500 indicates weakening bullish strength and the onset of a bearish bias. The pair touched 1.3458 briefly, suggesting that sellers are starting to take charge. Although oversold short-term conditions mean some rebound or consolidation might occur, the larger context indicates further downside threats if the pair breaks through the level of major support at 1.3420. Levels of resistance at 1.3525, 1.3555, and particularly 1.3580 are likely to mark any meaningful rally unless robust bullish catalysts are realized. FORECAST If GBP/USD succeeds in regaining the upward trend, a recovery to the resistance levels of 1.3525 and 1.3555 would be observed. A break above these levels may pave the way for another surge towards the stronger resistance at 1.3580. But any rally is set to remain capped until there is a dramatic shift in sentiment or positive economic news in favor of the Pound. On the flip side, the pair is susceptible as long as it holds below the major resistance levels. A short-term retest of the 1.3460 support and a clean break below 1.3420 may speed up selling pressure, potentially leading to a steeper fall. If bearish momentum gains further traction, the next major support would be found further down, which increases the risk of a prolonged downtrend.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Moves Above 0.6000 Despite Rate Cut Speculation as US Dollar Lags Due to Debt Fears

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  • May 26, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair jumped above 0.6000, hitting new six-month highs around 0.6030 in Asian trading on Monday, even as rate cut speculation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) picks up. The New Zealand dollar strength is being witnessed against the backdrop of ongoing US Dollar weakness due to increasing concerns over the US fiscal deficit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cautioned that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposed by former President Trump would increase the deficit by $3.8 billion via tax loopholes, putting additional pressure on US bond yields and economic prospects. Half of NZIER’s Shadow Board members meanwhile suggest a 25 basis-point OCR cut in the next RBNZ decision, mirroring the nation’s lackluster inflation and weak growth. KEY LOOKOUTS •Markets are keenly observing if the RBNZ will act on NZIER’s suggestion of $25 basis-point rate cut in view of low inflation and sluggish economic growth. •The fate of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in the Senate might have a big bearing on the US Dollar, particularly if the estimated $3.8 billion increase in the deficit comes to pass. •Itching US bond yields could continue to prop up borrowing costs, heightening economic uncertainty and affecting currency flows. •Sustained weakness in the US Dollar, underpinned by debt issues, could assist NZD/USD in the near term, particularly if risk appetite remains positive. Investors will need to watch the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy announcement on Wednesday closely, as markets expect a potential 25 basis-point rate reduction in the face of muted inflation and slow growth. Meanwhile, events in regard to ex-President Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” could continue to take a toll on the US Dollar, particularly if the projected $3.8 billion rise in the fiscal deficit actually happens. Increasing US bond yields, driven by deficit worries, may also maintain pressure on the US economy by perpetuating elevated borrowing costs. In summary, NZD/USD is still responsive to changes in monetary policy expectations and investor sentiment risk, which will be major drivers in the near term. The markets are waiting for the RBNZ’s rate decision, with a majority of people expecting a 25 basis-point reduction with dismal growth. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness is sustained by Trump’s proposed bill due to raised deficit concerns, keeping NZD/USD underpinned at six-month highs. •  NZD/USD broke the 0.6000 barrier, reaching a six-month high of about 0.6030 during Asian trading on Monday. •  The New Zealand Dollar firmed even as speculation for an RBNZ rate reduction this week increased. •  Fifty percent of NZIER’s Shadow Board suggested a 25 basis-point cut in OCR, while others proposed a bigger cut or no change. • US Dollar weakness persists amid increasing fears about the US fiscal deficit and economic prospects. • Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” would cost the US $3.8 billion in additional deficit, predicts the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). • Higher US bond yields fueled by deficit worries may prolong high borrowing costs, injecting economic uncertainty. • Short-term market sentiment continues to favor NZD/USD as investors wait for significant monetary policy announcements. New Zealand Dollar continues to strengthen with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forthcoming monetary policy announcement pending. Though certain members of NZIER’s Shadow Board have suggested a rate cut, broader market sentiment and external influences continue to support the NZD. The RBNZ has a difficult call to make as it weighs low inflation with persisting fears of the nation’s lackluster economic growth. While a cut in the rate is an option, the central bank can also opt to stay on the sidelines amid worldwide uncertainties. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar comes under pressure as worries over the nation’s expanding fiscal deficit grow. And former President Donald Trump’s suggested “One Big Beautiful Bill” has come under scrutiny, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating it would increase the national deficit by $3.8 billion. The bill, which contains tax reductions for tipped employees and automobile purchasers, has raised concerns about long-term budgetary pressure. These events are creating uncertainty in US economic prospects, which is affecting global currency flows and favoring stronger performance from such currencies as the NZD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has pierced the important psychological resistance level of 0.6000, which points to positive momentum. The pair is around 0.6030, its highest in six months, which suggests ongoing buying interest. If this rally continues, the next resistance area could be around 0.6060–0.6080. On the negative side, there is immediate support at 0.5970, with further support at 0.5930. Momentum oscillators like RSI are still in bullish territory, which confirms the optimistic short-term view unless there is a drastic reversal in sentiment after the policy decision by the RBNZ. FORECAST If the Reserve Bank of New Zealand takes a cautious tone or postpones a cut in rates, then the NZD can continue with its bullish trend, taking NZD/USD higher. Further fall in the US Dollar, fueled by fiscal uncertainty and deteriorating sentiment surrounding the US economy, can also help the pair to gain further. If these conditions continue, the pair may test resistance levels around 0.6060 and even move towards 0.6100 in the near future. Improved market sentiment or better-than-expected New Zealand economic data would help the bullish argument further. Conversely, if the RBNZ announces a bigger-than-expected rate cut of more than 25 basis points or a more dovish easing tone, the NZD can become vulnerable. A reversal in the US Dollar, perhaps on the back of better risk appetite or better US economic readings, can also negatively impact the pair. In that case, NZD/USD may come under bear pressure, with early support around 0.5970 and further decline potentially pushing it towards 0.5930 or below. Traders need to keep an eye on changes in global risk sentiment, which has the potential to change the pair’s direction in no time.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Tests Key 1.1250 Resistance: Will Bulls Break Descending Channel?

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  • May 20, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is testing a crucial resistance level around 1.1250, the upper end of its descending channel, with divergent technical indications. Although the general trend is still bearish due to the ongoing channel pattern, short-term momentum has increased as the pair is above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is sustaining marginally above 50. Initial support at 1.1210 and stronger support at 1.1093, where a break through might expose the pair to further losses. On the other hand, a successful break above 1.1250 might change the outlook to bullish, setting the stage for a rally to the April high at 1.1573. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a possible breakout above the resistance of the descending channel. A convincing move higher might change momentum in the bulls’ favor. • A breakdown below this level might indicate dissipating momentum and set off a short-term pullback. • A drop below this region would confirm a bearish continuation and leave the way open toward lower levels at 1.0951 and 1.0840. • The 14-day RSI sitting just above 50 is a principal strength gauge—further upward movement could confirm bullish potential, whereas a slide below might underpin renewed downside pressure. The EUR/USD pair should be watched closely as it challenges the important resistance level of 1.1250, which is the top of its downtrend channel. A breakout above the level may indicate a reversal to the upside, particularly since the pair is trading above the nine-day EMA and the RSI is slightly above 50. Non-breaking may, however, reinforce the current bearish trend, with initial support at 1.1210 and deeper support around 1.1093. A conclusive fall below these levels may open the way for further declines towards 1.0951 and possibly as low as 1.0840 in upcoming sessions. EUR/USD is probing significant resistance at 1.1250, the top of its downtrend channel. A break may mark a bullish reversal, while breakdown can see further downtrend towards support at 1.1210 and 1.1093. •  EUR/USD is probing the upper edge of its falling channel at 1.1250, which is an important resistance point. •  The pair is quoted above the 9-day EMA (1.1210), reflecting short-term positive momentum. •  RSI is still just above 50, reflecting a weak bullish inclination. •  Initial support is at 1.1210, with firmer support at the 50-day EMA around 1.1093. • A fall through 1.1093 could see a further drop towards 1.0951 and the channel’s lower boundary around 1.0840. • Strong buying momentum could take the pair to 1.1573, the April 21 high. • The general trend is still bearish, except in case of a confirmed break above 1.1250. EUR/USD pair remains under the spotlight because it is still a point of concentration in international currency markets. As both the United States and the Eurozone experience important economic events, investors are closely monitoring this significant currency pair for indications of the overall sentiment on the markets. Trends in inflation, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical events are all contributing to the direction of the pair and affecting trading strategies. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are also closely watching economic data from both blocs, such as employment statistics, GDP growth, and central bank statements. These factors not only influence currency valuation but also investor confidence and cross-border capital flows. As the global financial environment continues to develop, the EUR/USD continues to serve as an important gauge of economic equilibrium between the Eurozone and the U.S. economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is now probing a pivotal resistance level of about 1.1250, which is the top line of its downtrend channel. The fact that the pair is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicates some short-term bullishness, and the fact that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 50 mark indicates a neutral but slightly optimistic market tone. Important support levels to monitor are the 9-day EMA at 1.1210 and the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A break above the channel resistance could be an indication of trend reversal, whereas a failure to sustain present gains can cause renewed pressure on the downside. FORECAST EUR/USD manages to break above the major resistance level at 1.1250, it can mark the beginning of a bull run. This breakout can draw additional buying interest, which could propel the pair to the next resistance level of 1.1350. A strong push above this level can lead to a journey to 1.1573, which was the April high. Favorable Eurozone economic data or a change in market perceptions on U.S. interest rates could also drive higher. Conversely, a failure to penetrate 1.1250 can lead to fresh selling pressure. The first support is located at 1.1210, close to the 9-day EMA, with higher support at the 50-day EMA at 1.1093. A strong breach through these levels would speed the decline, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper levels at 1.0951 and possibly towards the lower edge of the descending channel at 1.0840. Poor Eurozone numbers or improved U.S. economic growth might further support the bearish expectations.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Fights Below 0.5900 As PBoC Cuts Rate, US Credit Downgraded

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  • May 20, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair continues to face pressure at the 0.5900 level after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) lowered its one-year Loan Prime Rate by 0.10 percentage point to 3.00% from 3.10%, a move that dented the New Zealand Dollar because of China’s close economic relationship with the latter. While blended Chinese data contributed to market volatility, New Zealand Q1 data revealed the steepest increase in producer prices in close to three years, fueling inflation fears. In contrast, the US Dollar softened following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increasing federal debt and fiscal difficulties. Market players now look forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision later today. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Ongoing market response to the PBoC’s reduction of the Loan Prime Rate and how that affects demand for the New Zealand Dollar, considering the nations’ robust trade relationship. • Look out for news or commentary on domestic inflation, particularly after Q1’s steep increase in producer input and output prices, which may be affecting RBNZ policy expectations. • Market sentiment may change considerably on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s future interest rate decision and guidance, affecting overall risk sentiment and AUD-cross flows. • Keep track of the market’s continuous reaction to Moody’s US credit rating downgrade and how it influences USD strength, Treasury yields, and overall risk appetite. Markets are watching carefully various factors that are affecting the NZD/USD pair. The People’s Bank of China’s recent rate cut still dents the New Zealand Dollar, evidencing the tight trade nexus between the two countries. Locally, New Zealand’s Q1 producer price surge has concerned observers with a possible resurgence in inflation pressures, which would have implications for monetary policy in the future. Also on the radar is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision next week, with a likely cut anticipated even with solid employment figures. The US Dollar, on the other hand, is under pressure after Moody’s downgrade of its credit rating, triggering wider fears about American fiscal stability. NZD/USD is under pressure with China’s rate cut and New Zealand’s renewed inflationary fears. Traders are also awaiting the RBA’s rate decision and the weakening of the US Dollar after Moody’s credit downgrade. • NZD/USD is trading close to 0.5900, still subdued after the PBoC reduced its one-year Loan Prime Rate to 3.00%. •  China policy relaxation puts the New Zealand Dollar under pressure as both nations have robust trade links. • Chinese economic data is mixed, with stronger-than-expected industrial production but soft retail sales. •  New Zealand’s Q1 statistics revealed the steepest increase in producer input and output prices in almost three years, triggering inflation fears. •  Market focus turns to the RBA, due to be cutting interest rates by 25 basis points even after solid jobs data. •  The US Dollar falls after Moody’s lowered the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing increased debt and fiscal issues. •  Broad risk sentiment remains delicate in the face of global rate policy divergence and fiscal policy uncertainty in large economies. New Zealand Dollar continues to be pressured by developments in the global economy, which continue to influence the sentiment of investors. The recent move by China to reduce its one-year Loan Prime Rate is indicative of persistent efforts to spur its economy, which has been reporting mixed signals with higher industrial output but lower retail sales. With New Zealand having a strong trade connection with China, these policy actions always have a major influence on the NZD. And at the same time, domestic inflation worries are re-emerging with the latest figures indicating a significant increase in producer prices—highlighting possible cost pressures within the economy. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView And the general market is absorbing Moody’s downgrade of the credit rating of the United States, a step that mirrors increasing concern about long-term fiscal sustainability. This move, coupled with projections of increasing debt and expanding deficits, has made markets wary globally. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is now catching investors’ attention, with expectations of an indication on how another major regional economy is coping with changing economic conditions. All these events as a whole shape market sentiment and could direct monetary policy expectations in the weeks to come. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is finding it difficult to make a strong move up from the 0.5920 level, indicating sustained resistance at this point. The pair is still trading below major moving averages on the daily chart, signifying a bearish short-term bias. In case of sustained downward pressure, support may be tested in the 0.5860–0.5880 region. In the up direction, a sustained move above 0.5950 would be necessary to show signs of a change in momentum. Technical levels like RSI are still neutral to slightly bearish, mirroring the pair’s guarded tone in the face of general market uncertainty. FORECAST Should market sentiment recover and global risk appetite improve, NZD/USD may recover towards the 0.5950–0.5980 resistance level. Upside surprises in New Zealand’s economic reports, for instance, stronger growth or contained inflation, can also help the Kiwi. In addition, any stabilization or improvement in China’s economy would improve New Zealand’s export prospects and spur bullish pressure in the NZD. A weaker US Dollar due to fears of fiscal health or poor economic data could also further contribute towards an upside move. On the negative side, NZD/USD could see renewed selling pressure if risk appetite weakens or Chinese economic data continues to weaken. A firmer US Dollar, fueled by safe-haven buying or hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, might send the pair down to the 0.5860 support level or lower. Locally, if New Zealand inflation pressures prompt worries about weakening demand or if the Reserve Bank is prudent, the Kiwi might stay on the back foot. Geopolitical tensions or global growth worries might also cap upside potential and predispose towards downside risks.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Flatlines Before US NFP Release as Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Influence Market Sentiment

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CHF currency pair was flat at about 0.8290 in Friday’s Asian session as investors remained on the sidelines waiting for the highly awaited US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Hope for prospective trade deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan, together with China’s openness to discussing trade, offered some support to the US Dollar. Nevertheless, fears regarding tariffs’ effects on inflation and growth, as well as disappointing weaker-than-expected US GDP readings for Q1 2025, limited the Greenback’s gains. Also, ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially over Ukraine, may support safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc, curbing any potential USD gains before the NFP release, which is forecast to report 130K job additions for April. KEY LOOKOUTS •   Later on Friday, the release of the US NFP report is an event to monitor, with a forecast for 130K job additions in April. A deviation from this number could strongly affect USD/CHF. •  The continued evolution of US trade negotiations with India, South Korea, Japan, and China is of paramount importance. Favorable progress may underpin the USD, while setbacks or escalations may undermine it. •  The geopolitical environment, especially in Ukraine, is still a cause for concern. Any further escalation would trigger higher demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, which could weigh on USD/CHF. •  With the US economy shrinking by 0.3% in Q1 2025, market participants will be watching how economic growth issues, as well as inflationary pressures from tariffs, could impact the trajectory of the USD. USD/CHF pair is at the moment in a wait-and-see mode around 0.8290, as the traders wait for the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) later today. The NFP, which is due to reflect 130K jobs added in April, may offer the pair some new direction. On the other hand, softening trade tensions, with possible deals between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China, can provide some support for the US Dollar. Yet, worries regarding the inflationary and growth effects of tariffs, combined with softer-than-forecast Q1 2025 GDP figures, are capping the Greenback’s gains. Moreover, tensions in Ukraine could fuel safe-haven demand for the Swissy, thereby limiting any USD advance. As a result, traders are following these events closely for any hints regarding the direction of USD/CHF going forward. USD/CHF is steady at 0.8290 prior to the US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is anticipated to show a rise of 130K jobs in April. Hopes regarding relaxing trade tensions can support the US Dollar, but fears over economic growth prospects and geopolitical dangers may cap any gains, thus keeping the Swiss Franc in play as a haven. • The USD/CHF currency pair is flat at 0.8290 as market players wait for the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report release later today. • The April NFP report is likely to indicate 130K jobs added, which may affect market sentiment and the direction of the USD. • Postponed trade agreements between the US and nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and China could prop up the US Dollar by alleviating trade tensions. • The US economy grew at a 0.3% decline in Q1 2025, softer than forecast, and may hint at growth worries and inflation concerns that will cap USD strength. • Further geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine, may result in safe-haven demand, such as the Swiss Franc. • The Swiss Franc may gain as a result of escalating geopolitical uncertainty and cap any potential for the USD to rise. • Traders are taking a wait-and-see stance, sidestepping huge positions prior to the release of the NFP and the possibilities of large market-moving news. USD/CHF is staying firm as the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is on the cards to give clues to the well-being of the US labor market. With modest employment growth expected, the report would be able to influence the movement of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the outlook on US trade relations has improved somewhat, with agreements pending with nations such as India, South Korea, and Japan. This good news in global trade can help turn the market concerns around, providing support for the USD. USD/CHF DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView But uncertainty over global economic conditions, especially following softer-than-expected US GDP figures for Q1 2025, still dampens sentiment. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions, like the conflict in Ukraine, also add to a risk-averse mood, supporting demand for the Swiss Franc as a safe-haven currency. While markets wait for the NFP report, most of the attention is still on wider economic and political events that may shape the USD/CHF pair in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF has been ranging around the 0.8290 level, with little price action in the run-up to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The pair is still in a tight range, reflecting market uncertainty before the release of the data. A break above or below the current range may give clearer direction, with resistance likely at 0.8320 and support around 0.8250. Such indicators as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are neutral, indicating that there is no strong momentum either way. Traders will tend to watch the NFP announcement closely for breakout indications or a change in momentum that may have an impact on the pair’s short-term path. FORECAST If the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release beats forecasts and reflects better-than-expected job creation, the US Dollar may get some boost, helping USD/CHF move past present resistance at 0.8320. Encouraging news about US trade talks with major nations and relaxation in overall global trade tensions can also bolster the USD. Moreover, any decrease in geopolitical risks, particularly for Ukraine, may translate to less need for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc, making the way for the USD to appreciate against the CHF. Conversely, however, if the NFP report fails to impress and shows weaker employment growth, or if fear over US economic growth increases with the latest GDP reports, the US Dollar may have a difficult time

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Forecast: Bullish Trend Goes On with 1.1400 as the Next Important Target

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  • April 28, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair continues to be bullish as it holds firm near 1.1360 in the Asian session amid a strong technical position. The pair is comfortably above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating sustained bullish momentum. The immediate overhead is at 1.1400, with scope for further upside towards 1.1547 and 1.1647. On the negative side, there is support at 1.1315, and a continued break below this may unlock the way for a pullback to 1.1000 or even 1.0888. With mixed signals on US-China trade relations, nonetheless, the bullish outlook for EUR/USD continues to hold in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The immediate upside target for EUR/USD is at the psychological level of 1.1400. A break above this level could set the stage for further rallies to 1.1547 and 1.1647. • The initial strong support to watch is 1.1315, the April 24 low. A strong and persistent move below this could indicate a possible fall to lower degrees, e.g., 1.1000. • EUR/USD continues to be supported by a solid bullish sentiment, with the currency trading above the important 100-day EMA and an RSI of 61.80, which shows sustained bullish momentum. • Uncertainty from mixed signals provided by the US and China regarding trade talks might engender volatility for the pair, and hence close attention needs to be paid to fresh information that can influence market sentiment. EUR/USD remains on a bullish outlook, with the pair maintaining ground around 1.1360, underpinned by a strong technical platform. The nearby resistance is located at 1.1400, and breaching this barrier may trigger the price to proceed higher towards 1.1547 and then 1.1647. On the down side, a first support in view is located at 1.1315, and its breach may alert for a downtrend towards 1.1000. The pair’s bullish bias is supported by the 100-day EMA and a positive RSI, which reflects continuous upward momentum. Nevertheless, market volatility may rise due to continued uncertainty over US-China trade relations, and it is therefore important to be vigilant for any news update that could shape market sentiment. EUR/USD has a positive outlook with support at 1.1315 and resistance at 1.1400. The bull run of the pair is complemented by a high RSI and the support of the 100-day EMA, despite possible volatility driven by US-China trade uncertainties. • EUR/USD has a positive bias and is favored by a sound technical setup. • Short-term target of the upside move is 1.1400, with extended potential to rise towards 1.1547 and 1.1647. • The initial crucial support level to monitor is 1.1315, and a probable decline to 1.1000 in the event of breaking this level. • The pair trades above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating ongoing bullish momentum. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the midline at about 61.80 indicates continuing bullish momentum. • Ambiguity regarding US-China trade relations has the potential to cause market instability, affecting the price action of EUR/USD. • In case the bullish momentum keeps going, subsequent major resistance points are 1.1547 (April 22 high) and 1.1647 (upper Bollinger Band). EUR/USD is depicting strong bullishness as the market continues to perceive the outlook to be positive. The pair has the support of positive market sentiment,partly triggered by a fairly stable economic atmosphere in the Eurozone. Even as the currency pair has been strong, there exists some uncertainty surrounding the global economic situation, which is mainly being caused by confusing signals emanating from the US-China trade war. The trade tensions can make for some episodes of volatility but generally, there is a good sentiment for the euro against the dollar. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView The persistent euro strength also has something to do with an absence of a major disruption of the Eurozone economy, where economic figures provide a stable background for the currency. At the same time, the US dollar is also facing some difficulty as the unpredictable nature of trade relations between China and the US clouds future prospects. As investors continue to observe these developments, the EUR/USD pair is set to stay in its existing bullish trend, although outside circumstances may cause short-term fluctuations. The general trend for EUR/USD is upward, and the market appears to be inclined towards the euro in the short term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is displaying a robust bullish inclination, bolstered by being above the significant 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming the upward motion to continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in positive ground and at 61.80, indicating buying pressure remains in place and the pair would be able to sustain its upward trend in the near term. The near-term resistance is at 1.1400, and if this level is breached, additional gains to 1.1547 and 1.1647 would be anticipated. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.1315, and a fall below this might indicate a reversal. Generally, the technical indicators are to the advantage of the euro, with robust support and bullish momentum driving the pair’s direction. FORECAST EUR/USD remains firmly in bullish sentiments, with the initial key resistance level at 1.1400. The breaking of this level may make way for increased gains, the next targets to the upside at 1.1547, April 22 high, and 1.1647, the top limit of the Bollinger Band. If there is sustained bearish momentum, these levels can serve as decisive markers, informing the market that the pair is likely to sustain its rising pattern in the ensuing sessions. To the downside, initial support for EUR/USD stands at 1.1315, which is the April 24 low. A prolonged slide below here would indicate a possible pullback towards the next support at 1.1000. Should selling pressure continue, the pair would be subject to further losses, with 1.0888, the April 8 low, standing out as a major target. Still, the pair is supported above these levels at present, containing the bearish scenario.

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