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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Remains Close to Five-Month Highs Due to US Trade Policy Uncertainty and RBNZ Easing Hopes

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  • April 18, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair continues near its five-month highs, trading around 0.5970, as investors pay close attention to US trade policy developments, especially given New Zealand’s substantial export relations with China. In spite of a recent surge, the New Zealand Dollar is rangebound due to anticipation of additional monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which is expected to reduce rates in May. US trade tensions and the fear of the economic effects of tariffs on China have seen a weakening US Dollar, driving the NZD higher. At the same time, US economic indicators revealed a drop in initial jobless claims, but an increase in continuing claims, further affecting market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • Any change in US trade policy, particularly with regards to tariffs on China, could have a major impact on the NZD/USD pair. With New Zealand having a strong export relationship with China, any increase or decrease in trade tensions will be closely monitored. • Hopes of further monetary easing from the RBNZ, potentially in the form of a May rate cut, may bear down on the New Zealand Dollar. Traders will monitor any official commentary or economic releases that signal the central bank’s next action. • Ongoing economic metrics, specifically labor market indicators such as jobless claims, will give indications of the strength of the US economy. A softer-than-anticipated US economy might add extra pressure on the US Dollar and give extra room for NZD upside. • In light of prevailing market volatilities, any shift in global risk sentiment, for example, fears surrounding the economic impacts of US tariffs or geopolitical pressures, may impact investor demand for riskier currencies such as the NZD. NZD/USD pair remains close to five-month highs at about 0.5970 as investors continue to watch events regarding US trade policy and their potential implications on New Zealand’s economy. The attention of the market is centered around US-China trade tensions, considering that New Zealand has a huge export relationship with China. The New Zealand Dollar is also under pressure due to anticipation of further easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and an anticipated rate cut in May. The US Dollar has been on the back foot with worries regarding the economic impact of tariffs and recent US labor market statistics, indicating a reduction in initial jobless claims but an upsurge in continuing claims, contributing to the uncertainty. As volume has been sparse to date given the Good Friday holiday, NZD/USD will likely realize higher levels should the US Dollar soften further but there is a great deal hanging on the further progression of trade policy and the unfolding of economic fundamentals in the days ahead. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to trade close to its five-month highs around 0.5970 as concerns over US trade policy rise and anticipation of further monetary relaxation by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand grows. The New Zealand Dollar is bolstered by a weaker US Dollar as trade tensions and economic indicators continue to affect market sentiment. • The NZD/USD currency pair is trading close to its five-month high, at 0.5970, following seven consecutive days of increases. • Market participants are keenly observing US trade policy news, especially with regards to China, since New Zealand’s economy is greatly dependent on exports to China. • US-China trade tensions may impact the NZD/USD pair, particularly following US President Trump’s statement regarding the possibility of not imposing additional higher tariffs on China. •  Recent US economic statistics, such as a fall in initial jobless claims and a rise in continuing claims, are influencing market sentiment and supporting a weaker USD. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to further ease monetary policy, with markets already pricing in a rate cut in May, which may pressure the NZD. • The US Dollar has weakened on fears over the economic consequences of tariffs, offering a chance for the NZD to firm up. • Volumes in trading are bound to be light because of the Good Friday holiday, which might result in lesser market volatility in the short term. NZD/USD currency pair is trading around its five-month highs as of now, indicating a spell of relative stability in spite of continued global uncertainty. Investors are especially interested in the evolution of US trade policy, with keen interest in the possible effects of trade relations between the US and China, in light of New Zealand’s high export connections with its biggest trading partner. While the New Zealand Dollar has been able to remain robust, much of its movement is influenced by external forces, including changes in US economic strategy and general market sentiment. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Concurrently, sentiment around the monetary policy moves by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is shaping the outlook for the New Zealand Dollar. With inflation remaining within the target band for the central bank, there is speculation that more easing measures might be in store. This interplay, together with a normally subdued trading session on account of the Good Friday holiday, indicates that while there is conservative optimism surrounding the NZD, its future directions will be greatly dependent on both global trade evolution and domestic economic choices. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD pair is testing resistance around the five-month high of 0.5979, and it looks promising to see further potential for upside if the price can continue above this point. The pair has been exhibiting steady upward motion during the last week, with gains for seven straight days, which may be a sign of a bullish trend. Yet, as the pair lingers around crucial resistance, the traders will keenly observe for a breakout or a pullback. Support levels at 0.5900 may serve as a cushion on a reversal, while any change in market mood, especially in relation to US trade policy or the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy direction, may drive the pair in the short term. FORECAST NZD/USD pair may experience additional upside if the US

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Approaches 1.3050 as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key PPI Data Amid Easing Inflation and Trade Shifts

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  • April 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD is gaining strength, nearing the 1.3050 level, as the US Dollar continues to lose strength in light of easing inflation and changing trade patterns. A lower-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, with headline inflation falling to 2.4% year-over-year, has tempered the greenback’s attractiveness, leading investors to wait for forthcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) releases and consumer sentiment surveys. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to approximately 100.20, indicating broader market unease regarding the domestic economic outlook. Also, the recent relaxation of global trade tensions—despite a sharp rise in tariffs on Chinese imports—has bolstered risk sentiment in favor of the British Pound. Market expectations are now pointing toward a cautious rate-cut trajectory by the Bank of England, with an update in May looking increasingly probable. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are keeping a close eye on March’s Producer Price Index and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings for additional insight into inflation patterns and consumer sentiment. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen close to 100.20 after softer-than-expected CPI numbers, maintaining pressure on the greenback against major currencies. • Bank of England rate cut expectations in the markets continue to support a phase of gradual relaxation, with possible quarter-point reductions expected in May, August, and November. • The 90-day US tariff pause for most partners, contrasted with higher tariffs on Chinese imports, continues to shape global risk sentiment and currency flows. Markets are looking for a few key drivers of the GBP/USD pair’s recent strength. Focus now shifts to the coming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers, both seen to offer new information on inflationary pressures and consumer sentiment. The US Dollar continues to suffer, with the Dollar Index staying close to 100.20 after a below-forecast CPI reading for March. In contrast, Bank of England rate-cut expectations are still in place, with markets anticipating a probable move in May, followed by possible cuts in August and November. Also, changing global trade flows—dramatized by the US relaxing tariffs on most partners while steeply increasing them on Chinese imports—are influencing investor sentiment and buoying risk-sensitive currencies such as the British Pound. GBP/USD pair is still going higher as the US Dollar declines on the back of weaker inflation reports and risk-off market sentiment. Investors now await major US PPI and consumer sentiment releases to guide them. Hopes for gradual BoE rate reductions are also in support of the Pound. • The pair is trending higher, securing its fourth successive daily gain. • The DXY drops to about 100.20 in the wake of fears over weak inflation and uncertainty in the economy. • March CPI increased 2.4% YoY, less than the 2.6% expectation and down from February’s 2.8%, indicating easing inflation. • Core inflation fell to 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, missing the 3.0% expectation. • Investors look to March PPI and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment for additional economic indicators. • The US imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports but suspended increases for most partners, reducing overall trade tensions. • Markets expect three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year, the first in May, then in August and November. The British Pound is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes due to recent economic and policy news. One of the main drivers underpinning the Pound is the slowdown in inflation in the United States, with the Consumer Price Index for March revealing a significant slowdown from recent months. This has created increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve will delay further aggressive moves in monetary policy, which in turn has had an impact on confidence in the US Dollar. Concurrently, an overall pick-up in risk sentiment across the world has become more acceptable for investors to hold currencies such as the Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView To the upbeat mood is added a new direction in US trade policy. Although tariffs on Chinese imports were raised sharply, the US implemented a temporary moratorium on new tariffs for all other trading partners. This action has served to allay concerns of an escalating trade war, paving the way for more settled global economic prospects. Back in the UK, the Bank of England is likely to take a gradual path to monetary accommodation, with any rate cuts dovetailed across the course of the year. Such a measured approach has contributed to the Pound’s relative attractiveness, particularly as markets anticipate crucial near-term data releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is displaying robust bullish momentum as it trades around the 1.3050 resistance level, constituting a potential breakout zone. The pair has sustained an uptrend for four straight sessions, backed by a series of higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. The 50-day moving average is in an upward trend, supporting bullishness, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below the overbought level, indicating scope for further appreciation. A continued break above 1.3050 may pave the way towards the next resistance at 1.3100, while short-term support is around 1.2970, followed by the psychological 1.2900 level. FORECAST GBP/USD may keep its momentum going in the short term, particularly if future US economic indicators, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer sentiment, further indicate a decline in inflation. A weaker prognosis for the US economy would likely make the Dollar even weaker, which could give GBP/USD enough strength to breach the 1.3050 resistance level and head for the next level at 1.3100 or even 1.3150. Enhanced global risk appetite, underpinned by reduced trade tensions and stable UK economic indicators, may also keep demand for the Pound firm. Should the Bank of England continue with a measured and consistent policy of rate cuts, it could give further support to the currency. Conversely, GBP/USD will potentially come under selling pressure should US data surprise to the upside, resuscitating hopes of tighter Federal Reserve policy. A rebound in the US Dollar, particularly if it is fueled by more robust inflation or growth data, might drive the

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Outlook: Slowing Downside Momentum, Rangebound Trading Ahead of 145.40–148.50

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  • April 10, 2025
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The USD/JPY currency pair is stabilizing after sharp recent moves, and analysts at UOB Group believe that downside momentum is starting to slow. Although the US Dollar temporarily slipped to 143.98, it then recovered sharply, showing conflicting short-term signals. Until now, the USD should trade between 145.40 and 148.50. A decisive move above the 148.50 resistance level would indicate that the recent Dollar weakness has probably run its course. But until then, there is still a low probability of a retest of the 144.00 level in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS •  USD/JPY should trade between 145.40 and 148.50 in the near term, indicating a phase of consolidation following recent volatility. •  A persistent break above 148.50 would indicate that recent bear pressure on the USD has probably bottomed, with the outlook now assuming a more neutral or bullish character. •  As momentum lower tapers out, there is still a low probability of USD returning to the 144.00 level before a more definite rebound. •  After the sharp decline and strong recovery, the market is still unsure; traders need to look for direction confirmation before they take positions. After recent fluctuations in the USD/JPY currency pair, traders need to pay close attention to a few important levels and signals. The currency will continue to be range-bound between 145.40 and 148.50 in the short run, indicating a consolidation period. A breakout above the 148.50 resistance level would indicate that the recent bear pressure on the US Dollar has bottomed out, and the door could be open for further advances. Yet, with momentum still in doubt, there is still a low risk of the pair retesting the 144.00 support level before any meaningful recovery. Traders should wait for definitive directional signals before entering new positions. USD/JPY will trade between 145.40 and 148.50 as bearish momentum starts to decline. A breakout above 148.50 will indicate stabilization of the USD, while a slide towards 144.00 is still a short-term risk. • USD/JPY will trade between 145.40 and 148.50 short term. • Recent price movement indicates bear pressure on USD is beginning to weaken. • Major support is at the 145.00 level, and a short-lived drop to 143.98 was recently witnessed. • Major resistance is at 148.50; a breakout above it would mark trend change. • Gaudy swings render the immediate trend uncertain, suggesting consolidation. • A small possibility is still there for USD to test the 144.00 level again before consolidating. • Traders must hold back for a firm move above or below major levels for clearer guidance. USD/JPY currency pair is at the moment going through a period of turmoil, with investors and market players closely monitoring for hints of stability. However, after a period of wild fluctuations, sentiment seems to be swinging in a different direction, and attention is turning on whether volatility witnessed in recent times will make way for more stable trading conditions. According to analysts, the wild fluctuations are likely to start subsiding, making it a more predictable market for both traders and investors. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the larger picture, this progress is a reflective response in the currency market from players reacting to a combination of economic indicators and international influences. Though the ultimate direction is not yet certain, the immediate focus is on regaining equilibrium and waiting for stronger signals. This point is one of opportunity for the market to re-evaluate and re-coalesce, and to lay the groundwork for the next phase of action with enhanced clarity and determination. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has exhibited signs of consolidation following a sharp period of volatility, as price action stabilized around major levels. The pair recently bounced from a low at around 144.00 and hit resistance at around 148.50, which suggests a likelihood of a change in momentum. Although short-term indicators portray a mixed picture, the slowing of downward momentum indicates a likely buildup for a breakout. A break and hold above 148.50 would seal the trend stabilization deal, but losing the levels of 145.40 might sustain the pair within a consolidatory mode. Players are following the levels very intently for direction. FORECAST USD/JPY may break above the resistance level of 148.50, indicating a possible change to a more stable or rising trend. A definitive move beyond this level may set the stage for 149.50 and higher, as buyers come in with increased confidence. This would indicate that recent US Dollar weakness has probably bottomed out, and the stage is set for a modest recovery against the Yen in the short to medium term. On the negative, if USD/JPY does not hold support at 145.40, the pair would be subjected to fresh selling pressure. A slide below 145.00 may see a test of the new low around 144.00, and fresh weakness could target deeper support areas. Although declining momentum is fazing out at the moment, any renewed bearish sentiment or unforeseen economic news may continue to push the pair down, prolonging the corrective cycle.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Falls Close to 0.5700 as China’s Deflationary Pressures Hit Kiwi Sentiment

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  • March 10, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair fell close to the 0.5700 level in Monday’s Asian session, weighed down by worsening deflationary pressures in China. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in February fell 0.7% year-over-year, the steepest decline since January 2024, fueling concerns over soft domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy—New Zealand’s major trading partner. This has taken a heavy toll on the Kiwi. Yet, pair downside momentum can be curtailed by rising expectations of US interest rate cuts in light of weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls. The market waits now for Tuesday’s US CPI release for further cues on Fed policy and overall market direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • China’s sharper-than-expected decline in CPI signals weak domestic demand, adding pressure on the Kiwi from the strong trade links with China. • Markets await Tuesday’s US CPI data, which may impact Federal Reserve rate expectations and set the tone for NZD/USD action. • Soft US jobs data stokes rate cut speculation, which may cap USD strength and underpin a small NZD/USD rally. • International risk sentiment and geopolitics could affect safe-haven demand for USD, influencing near-term volatility in NZD/USD trading. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to be under pressure, trading close to the 0.5700 level in the wake of increasing deflationary pressures in China, New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. China’s CPI fall in February indicates poor consumer demand and puts additional bearish pressure on the Kiwi. Downside in the pair, however, may be capped as weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls data has reinforced expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors now look to Tuesday’s US CPI report, which will be instrumental in determining market sentiment and the short-term direction of the NZD/USD pair. NZD/USD hovers around 0.5700, weighed down by China’s worsening deflation and poor domestic demand. Downside is capped by weaker US jobs data, which enhances Fed rate cut hopes. All eyes now on Tuesday’s US CPI data for new direction. • NZD/USD quotes at 0.5700, weighed down by China’s emerging deflationary pressures. • China’s CPI dropped 0.7% in February, the largest fall since January 2024, indicating soft domestic demand. • New Zealand Dollar falls, as China is one of its key trading partners and economic slowdown dents Kiwi mood. • Soft US Nonfarm Payrolls data boosts expectations of several Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. • Fed policy direction continues to be prudent, with officials emphasizing caution and the requirement for data-driven decision-making. • US CPI releases on Tuesday are likely to be a major driver of the next direction in NZD/USD. • Market sentiment and global risk flows will continue to drive short-term currency pair movement. China’s increasing deflationary pressures have created new doubts about the strength of the world economy, particularly for nations such as New Zealand that enjoy strong trade relations with China. The steep drop in China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February is an indicator of weak domestic consumption and weak household demand. As one of New Zealand’s largest export markets, any Chinese economic slowdown would tend to influence the Kiwi economy indirectly. Market players are becoming more cautious, observing how China’s domestic challenges may impact overall economic activity and global trade flows. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Alternatively, the United States also has its own share of uncertainties, especially after the recent Nonfarm Payrolls reading indicated a moderation in job growth. This has promoted increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. While policymakers have indicated a data-dependent policy, future economic indicators—particularly the US Consumer Price Index (CPI)—will have a crucial influence on forming expectations. These global macroeconomic trends are expected to drive investor sentiment and near-term policy choices in major economies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD continues to come under bear pressure, trading near major support areas at the 0.5700 level. The pair has not been able to sustain buying momentum, reflecting that sellers still have the upper hand. A persistent break below this support level could pave the way for additional declines, but a bounce back above near-term resistance levels may reflect a potential change in mood. Traders will carefully observe price behavior around these major levels for reversal or breakout signals, particularly before high-impact economic releases such as the US CPI report. FORECAST If the coming economic data, specifically the US CPI, indicates softer inflation, this would reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and possibly weaken the US Dollar. This situation might present some upside potential for NZD/USD to recover to higher resistance levels. Moreover, any indication of policy stimulus or stabilization in China may enhance market sentiment for the Kiwi and present additional scope for recovery. Conversely, in the event that US inflation numbers turn higher than anticipated, this can temper expectations of premature rate reductions by the Fed, strengthening the US Dollar and putting additional pressure on NZD/USD. Additionally, ongoing deflationary indications and subdued Chinese domestic demand might further drain the New Zealand Dollar. In that scenario, the duo can find it difficult to stay above major support levels and might experience further falls in the near future.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZDUSD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Stagnating Below 0.5900

NZDUSD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Stagnating Below 0.5900 The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday faces mounting downward pressure as it breaks its three-day winning streak and traded to around the 0.5890 level in the European session Wednesday. The NZD/USD pair sits in a descending channel, with further bearish bias looking possible unless strong reversal is seen. Pair shows weakness, especially below key 0.5900, and short-term momentum remains bearish. Bearish Momentum: NZD/USD in a Descending Channel From the daily NZD/USD chart, a bearish outlook seems to be of concern for the bullish traders because the chart seems to be moving in a downward trend within a well-defined descending channel. A bearish sentiment usually prevails when the market is entering a kind of downtrend, as the pair cannot keep its course upwards but falls backwards. In the case of NZD/USD, this kind of pattern grows clearer because, day by day, it remains trading below both nine-day and 14-day EMAs. Currently, the nine-day EMA sits below the 14-day EMA, which is an important short-term indicator of price momentum and displays persistent weakness in the market. This means that bearish control is most likely to continue until a strong catalyst forces a directional shift in sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) – the measure of the speed and change of price movements – is also sitting below the neutral 50 level. When the RSI is constantly under 50, it usually means the market tends to have a bearish look, which commensurate with current trends for NZD/USD. Resistance Levels: Immediate Hurdles for NZD/USD Resistance levels for NZD/USD, however, are found in the immediate upside. The first level of key resistance is currently sitting at 0.5907, at the nine-day EMA. This represents the zone that sellers will be keenly watching for as a potential turning point. A break back above the nine-day EMA would be a marked shift in sentiment, though as of now, the pair sits below this resistance, which continues to support the bearish view. Above the nine-day EMA, the next level of resistance is at the 14-day EMA, which stands at 0.5926. This is a more important resistance level since it coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel. From the breakout above the 14-day EMA and the upper boundary of the channel, the bearish momentum could be weakening, allowing the pair to further advance toward higher levels, even reaching the psychological level 0.6000. Given the current bearish momentum, however, such a breakout seems less likely over the short run unless something fundamental in market sentiment were to shift. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles Levels of Support : 0.5850 and the Lower Boundary of the Channel On the downside, the NZD/USD pair is facing potential support around the 0.5850 level, which represents a psychological level for the pair. If the price continues to slide lower, this support zone will be critical in determining whether the bearish trend will extend further. If the price breaks below 0.5850, the next level of support is likely to be the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is found around the 0.5930 region. The zone is of high importance situated around 0.5850 as it is a throwback support zone – a term used to describe a price zone where the market had previously shown support or resistance. If the NZD/USD pair can remain above the 0.5850 zone, it might be a good place for a reversal or at least a consolidation. On the other hand, if the price breaks decisively below that level, it would endorse the bearish view and push the pair down even further. Downside Risk: Testing the Two-Year Low at 0.5772 If the NZD/USD fails to maintain strength above 0.5850 and breaks below the lower boundary of its falling channel, critical support will be found at the two-year low at 0.5772. It reached the level last in November 2023, and this will be a signal for another decline in the value of the Kiwi versus the US Dollar, should the pair continue to the mentioned level. Such a move towards this level would squeeze the bearish sentiment and thus attract more selling pressure with further declines. Traders will be keenly watching how the price reacts to the lower boundary of the channel and the 0.5850 support. A break below these levels could potentially accelerate the decline and bring the pair closer to the two-year low of 0.5772. On the other hand, a failure to break below these levels might indicate a temporary consolidation, but the overall market sentiment would remain cautious and bearish. What Could Reverse the Bearish Trend? While the current outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, it’s essential to consider potential catalysts that could reverse the trend. For instance, if there were a significant shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets or a sudden change in global economic conditions, it could provide support for the New Zealand Dollar. Positive economic data from New Zealand or a change in the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance could also impact the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, if the pair breaks above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, it could signal that the bears are losing control, allowing for a move higher. This scenario however, looks unlikely to come to pass without a significant fundamental trigger, as the current market sentiment is on further weakness for the Kiwi. What to Expect for NZD/USD Short-term view: The outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, but the price was unable to stay above the key level of 0.5900. The pattern of the descending channel suggests further downside, with the support areas around 0.5850 and the lower boundary of the channel being areas to watch. A break below these levels would further solidify a strong bearish case, with a view toward reaching the two-year low of 0.5772. On the positive side, two important barriers that one needs to watch are resistance levels at the nine-day EMA (0.5907) and at the

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