Forex Trading Tools and Services

Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Under Selling Pressure Prior to RBNZ Policy Decision as Market Expects Rate Cut

  • BY
  • October 6, 2025
  • 0 Comments

NZD/USD currency pair faced selling pressure on Monday, falling close to 0.5815 as investors became risk-averse prior to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement. Market participants expect the RBNZ to reduce its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%, the second consecutive rate cut as economic growth slows. At the same time, the US Dollar firmed up as a result of higher safe-haven demand amid French political tensions, adding to the down pressure on the Kiwi. With ongoing threats of a US govt shutdown and bearish technical indicators, NZD/USD finds it difficult to continue its recent run of gains, ranging around important support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets expect a 25 bps rate cut to 2.75%, which could determine the direction for NZD/USD’s next move. • Soft New Zealand GDP statistics supports bets on dovish RBNZ policy. • Greenback rallies on safe-haven buying following French political instability and US fiscal uncertainty. • NZD/USD is capped near 20-day EMA at 0.5847, with vital support points at 0.5800 and 0.5754. NZD/USD currency pair pulled back from initial gains on Monday, trading at around 0.5815 as investors took a guarded approach following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy decision. The anticipation is strong for a 25 basis point rate reduction to 2.75%, sparked by New Zealand’s poor GDP numbers and growing apprehensions of dwindling economic pace. In contrast, the US Dollar rallied following increased safe-haven demand in response to political unrest in France and ongoing threats of a US government shutdown. From a technical perspective, the pair flounders below its 20-day EMA at 0.5847, which points to bearish pressure potentially continuing if it is unable to retake the 0.5800 handle. NZD/USD dropped to the levels of about 0.5815 as speculators grew more cautious before the RBNZ policy announcement. Anticipation of a 25 bps rate reduction and soft NZ economic data pressed down on the Kiwi, and a supportive US Dollar further bolstered the pressure. The pair now finds it difficult to stay above important support levels. • NZD/USD falls to about 0.5815 due to pre-RBNZ policy prudence. • Markets anticipate the RBNZ to lower rates by 25 bps to 2.75% on Wednesday. • Subpar NZ GDP data supports ongoing expectations of monetary easing. • The US Dollar rises on safe-haven demand due to France’s political instability. • Threats of a US government shutdown remain supportive of the Greenback. • NZD/USD is resisted at near the 20-day EMA of 0.5847, indicating bearish bias. • The major downside levels to monitor are 0.5800, 0.5754, and 0.5700 if the selling process accelerates. The NZD/USD currency pair came under fresh pressure on Monday as the investors went cautious before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement, which is scheduled later in the week. The market participants expect the central bank to announce a 25 basis point cut in the rate, reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 2.75%. This step would be the second straight cut as the RBNZ continues to fight dwindling economic momentum. New Zealand’s GDP figures, which indicated a 0.9% dip in the second quarter, have fueled expectations for additional monetary loosening to prop up growth. NZD/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, the US Dollar received widespread support as investors flocked to the currency for safety in the wake of political unrest in France and continued fears over a possible US government shutdown. These drivers have increased the Greenback’s popularity, adding further pressure on risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar. In anticipation of the RBNZ’s decision, the market continues to look to policy signals that have the potential to guide near-term direction for the Kiwi and overall investor sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is weakening as it fails to maintain above the 0.5800 level. The pair is immediately tested near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5847, reflecting ongoing selling pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounced above 40, but a failure to maintain this level might stimulate renewed bearish momentum. If the pair falls below 0.5800, it could set the stage for a drop towards the 0.5754 support area, but a strong break above 0.6000 could turn sentiment in favor of the bulls. FORECAST If the RBNZ surprises markets with a less dovish tone or signals a pause in further rate cuts, NZD/USD could regain upward momentum. A sustained break above the psychological 0.6000 level would likely attract renewed buying interest, paving the way toward the June 19 high of 0.6040 and the September 11 low near 0.6100. Improved risk sentiment or softer US data could further support the Kiwi’s recovery against the Greenback. On the other hand, if the RBNZ reaffirms its dovish stance and hints at further easing, the Kiwi could continue to be under selling pressure. A clean break below 0.5800 could see a plunge to the September 26 low of 0.5754 and possibly the 0.5700 support zone. Excessive US Dollar strength due to global risk aversion or political tensions would further suppress the pair in the near future.

Read More
AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Trump-Fed Spat and RBA Rate Cut Hints Determine Market Mood

  • BY
  • August 26, 2025
  • 0 Comments

AUD/USD pair increased slightly towards the all-important 0.6500 level on Tuesday after the US Dollar lost some ground following political upheaval at the Federal Reserve. President Trump sent a firing letter to Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage accusations, raising fears of Fed independence and generating weak selling pressure on the Greenback. At the same time, investors look forward to the US Durable Goods Orders data, which is predicted to decline moderately, as the Australian Dollar holds firm despite an early warning of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia later in the year. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s decision to end Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s term sparks renewed fears over central bank independence. • The Greenback weakens, and the DXY falls 0.2% to around 98.20, which provides a boost to AUD/USD. • July Durable Goods Orders are due, which are predicted to decline by 4% compared to June’s more severe 9.3% drop. • The minutes from the RBA foreshadow further interest rate cuts during the year, with judgments subject to data received and overseas threats. AUD/USD rose moderately towards the 0.6500 level on Tuesday as a weaker US Dollar came after President Trump suddenly tried to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook for mortgage charges injected political and economic volatility. The move further subjected the independence of the Fed to new doubts, putting subtle pressure on the Greenback and enabling the Aussie to make inroads. Traders now look to the coming US Durable Goods Orders report, due to indicate a lower decrease versus June, while the Australian Dollar holds firm in spite of the RBA suggesting possible rate cuts later in the year. AUD/USD inched higher towards 0.6500 after the US Dollar weakened in response to Trump’s bid to sack Fed Governor Lisa Cook, sparking fears of Fed independence. Buyers now focus on US Durable Goods Orders data, with the RBA’s hint of future rate cuts keeping the Aussie in line. • AUD/USD inches closer to the 0.6500 level during Tuesday’s European session. • US Dollar Index (DXY) down 0.2 to about 98.20, supporting the Aussie. • Trump seeks to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over suspected false mortgage reports. • Cook contests dismissal, insisting Trump lacks the legal power to remove her. • Fed independence is becoming increasingly cause for concern amid warnings of politcal interference. • Investors look to US Durable Goods Orders data to come through with a 4% drop for July. • RBA minutes indicate further interest rate cuts later in the year, although data will determine the pace. President Trump’s move to order Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook a termination letter created political controversy and reopened questions over the central bank’s independence. As Trump accused Cook of making false claims about mortgage arrangements, she dismissed the allegations and claimed that the President could not remove her. This action is part of Trump’s larger effort to have more control over the Fed, an organization he has often denounced for its policies, according to market observers and analysts. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting minutes revealed that officials remain open to additional interest rate cuts later this year. Policymakers emphasized that the timing and extent of these cuts will depend on the flow of economic data and global conditions. The RBA’s cautious but accommodative stance reflects concerns about growth and inflation, while leaving room to adjust policy based on evolving risks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is probing the psychological level around 0.6500, which has served as a pivot point in recent trading sessions. A break above this range could set the stage for further up-move towards near-term resistance levels, but its inability to stay above 0.6500 could lead to fresh selling interest. Market participants are taking keen interest in price action on this important level as it would decide short-term directional flow for the pair. FORECAST Should the US Dollar remain under selling pressure in face of political stress at the Fed and softer-than-anticipated US data, AUD/USD may gain traction above the 0.6500 level. A clean break higher would likely urge buyers to drive the pair towards near-term resistance levels, supported further if the RBA embraces a cautious rate cut pace. Conversely, any bounce of the Greenback on the back of better US economic data or reducing political turbulence would pressure the pair. Not being able to hold above the 0.6500 level could induce fresh selling, which could drive AUD/USD lower as markets also take into account the RBA’s inclination for further cuts in interest rate this year.

Read More
Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Flat as BoJ Hawkishness Confronts Fed Rate Cut Projections

  • BY
  • August 5, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Japanese Yen remained unchanged against the US Dollar on Tuesday, while hawkish indications from the Bank of Japan and a higher revision in Japan’s Services PMI offered foundational support for the currency. Nevertheless, political uncertainties within Japan and a generally optimistic market mood muted safe-haven demand for the Yen. In the meantime, the US Dollar struggled to push gains as expectations of a September Fed rate cut increased, particularly after softer US job data and political pressure on the Federal Reserve. The USD/JPY pair floated above the 147.00 level, with investors looking to the upcoming US ISM Services PMI and FOMC comments for new direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • June BoJ meeting minutes reiterated the potential for a year-end rate hike, keeping the JPY bears on their toes. • More than 80% chance of a September Fed rate cut continues to pressure the US Dollar. • The recent election defeat of the ruling party has raised some concerns about fiscal policy, potentially hampering BoJ tightening. • The attention of the market now turns to the US ISM Services PMI and comments from Federal Reserve officials for short-term USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen continued to trade range-bound versus the US Dollar on Tuesday, as market participants weighed hawkish cues from the Bank of Japan with increasing bets on a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Though optimistic domestic data and BoJ’s renewed pledge to policy tightening provided support to the Yen, fears about Japan’s political situation and rising global risk appetite capped its upside. Conversely, the US Dollar received modest support from bond yields but failed to achieve significant traction with softer labor market data as well as political meddling with Fed policy. The market now waits for US ISM Services PMI and FOMC commentary for additional clarity regarding the USD/JPY direction. Japanese Yen remains flat in response to BoJ’s hawkish stance and better domestic data. But political instability in Japan and anticipation of a Fed rate cut limit large USD/JPY movements. Markets wait for US ISM Services PMI and Fed commentary for short-term direction. • June Bank of Japan meeting minutes reinforced the probability of a rate increase in case inflation and growth conform to expectations. • July Services PMI for Japan was 53.6, the highest growth since February. • The election loss of the ruling party impacts the fiscal stability, which may slow BoJ’s tightening trajectory. • Political pressure on the Fed and weak US job statistics drive the rate cut expectation in September. • The currency pair is unchanged on mild USD buying and positive sentiment in the market. • Improved equities in Asia lower the demand for the Yen as a safe-haven currency. • The US ISM Services PMI and FOMC member remarks are the key to short-run USD/JPY action. The Japanese Yen was unchanged against the US Dollar on Tuesday as investors balanced conflicting economic and political indications from Japan and the US. Bank of Japan meeting minutes in June confirmed year-end rate hike expectations, particularly with Japan’s Services PMI experiencing its fastest growth in months. These events gave some respite to the Yen. Political uncertainty due to the poor performance of the ruling party in recent election results has questioned the fiscal future of the country as well as the policy direction of the BoJ, keeping sharp bullish momentum for the Yen in check. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the US Dollar received faint support from a generally positive risk mood and optimistic market sentiment, but is increasingly coming under pressure as a result of rising bets for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Recent US employment data, coupled with political actions targeting the Fed’s autonomy, have contributed to such expectations. Traders are cautious ahead of some significant US data releases, such as the ISM Services PMI, as well as future speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which would influence near-term market mood and set direction for the USD/JPY cross. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY cross has demonstrated strength above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the July rally, maintaining support above the 147.00 level. Closest resistance is around the 147.35 level, then the 147.75 area and the 148.00 psychological level, which also happens to be the 38.2% retracement level. A break and hold above this area has the potential to solidify a near-term low and continue to support the bullish thesis. To the detriment, there’s initial support at 146.85, and a break below 146.60 on a decisive note could gain further downwards momentum to 146.00 and even to the 145.85 area, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci mark. Neutrality of oscillators on the daily chart advises caution, with no robust momentum either way currently. FORECAST If the USD/JPY currency pair can remain above the 147.00 level and break through the near-term resistance at 147.35, it would set the stage for additional advancement. A continued break above the 147.75 area and the 148.00 psychological level would signal fresh bullish energy, and prices might head to 148.50 or even beyond. This bullish scenario would be sustained by any hawkish surprise comments by Fed officials or better-than-anticipated US economic data, which will temporarily counter the overall rate cut expectations. On the negative side, inability to stay above 146.85 will leave the pair vulnerable to further selling pressure. A breakdown below the 146.60 support could provokes a steeper decline to the 146.00 area, and then to the 145.85 level, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally. This bearish scenario may unfold if future US data slows or if political realities in the US further erode confidence in the Fed’s independence, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Pulls Back from Recent Highs Following US-Japan Deal that Bolsters Dollar and EU Trade Uncertainty Heightens

  • BY
  • July 23, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD currency pair pulls back from more than two-week highs following fresh US Dollar strength and increasing uncertainty about the EU-US trade relationship as a drag on the Euro. Having seen a significant 1.3% advance in the last three days, the Euro is under pressure as concerns over possible 30% US tariffs, coupled with stalling negotiations, take their toll. At the same time, a “monster trade agreement” between the US and Japan has supported investor sentiment towards the Dollar. Through the pullback, the immediate bullish picture for the pair remains in place, with a key support holding above the 1.1720 threshold as markets look for the European Central Bank’s policy decision and EU consumer sentiment reports. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market attention is on the status of current EU-US trade talks, as investors are concerned about possible 30% US tariffs on EU imports from August 1. •  Investors look to the Thursday ECB monetary policy release for signals on interest rate direction and potential easing as Eurozone growth slows. • The USD finds traction in a newly released US-Japan trade agreement, which could cap EUR/USD gains through the near term. • The EUR/USD currency pair remains above crucial support at 1.1720; a slide below may initiate further weakness to 1.1680 and 1.1645. The EUR/USD currency pair is under pressure after its robust three-day advance as investors respond to US Dollar’s fresh strength and increased uncertainty regarding EU-US trade relations. The Euro retreated from near two-week highs at 1.1760, trading around 1.1730 on fears that stalled trade negotiations may result in massive US tariffs on European imports on August 1. In contrast, a “massive trade deal” between the US and Japan has boosted the greenback, cutting short the Euro’s potential to advance. In spite of the correction, the pair has a near-term bullish outlook, with excellent support at 1.1720 in advance of major events like the ECB policy decision and EU consumer sentiment data. EUR/USD drifts from latest highs as US Dollar gains on reports of a trade agreement with Japan. EU-US trade tensions, combined with future ECB policy announcements, keep investors on their toes. Key support at 1.1720 remains in force, preserving the pair’s short-term bullish momentum. • EUR/USD falls back after surging 1.3%, weighed down by renewed US Dollar strength. • US-Japan trade agreement gives investors more confidence in the Dollar, taking it off recent lows. • Euro dips from 1.1760 to 1.1730, yet remains above key support at 1.1720. • EU-US trade uncertainty continues, with concerns over 30% US tariffs on EU exports from August 1. • ECB policy decision on Thursday is also a key market theme, with the expectation of a dovish tone. • Consumer Sentiment Index (EC) for July releases, but not likely to change sentiment unless it surprised positively. • Technical outlook is bullish, with attempts to the downside capped unless 1.1720 is breached. EUR/USD is attracting investor attention due to increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The Euro’s recent upsurge has decelerated as worries intensify regarding the unclamped trade talks between the United States and the European Union. With a possible 30% US tariff awaiting EU products from August 1, market sentiment remains on edge. The announcement of a new US-Japan trade agreement has also added pressure on the Euro, as the deal boosts confidence in the US Dollar and highlights Washington’s aggressive trade stance. Meanwhile, EU representatives are heading to Washington in a last-minute attempt to secure a deal and avoid retaliatory measures, keeping traders on edge. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the subdued tone, the European Central Bank will be announcing its most recent monetary policy decision, which would influence market direction for the Euro over the next few weeks. There will be no significant shifts in interest rates, though the market will be keenly aware of any indication of the ECB’s economic outlook or upcoming policy measures. Also on the horizon is the European Commission’s Consumer Sentiment Index for July, which is expected to evidence only modest improvement and is still below the long-run average—a further indication of the Eurozone’s dud recovery. Such developments collectively highlight the wider macroeconomic and political dangers confronting the Euro. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a short-term bullish formation despite its recent retreat. The duo has found support at higher levels of 1.1720, which was earlier the level of resistance, indicating a possible base for fresh northward movement. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) had moved into overbought levels following the recent upsurge, leading to the ongoing correction. A prolonged break below 1.1720 could pave the way for additional declines towards 1.1680 and 1.1645. On the positive side, resistance is capped at 1.1760, with a breach above the level set to reveal higher targets at 1.1790 and 1.1830. FORECAST As long as EUR/USD holds above the crucial support at 1.1720, the pair may return to bullish momentum. A successful bounce may propel the price back toward the immediate resistance at 1.1760. A breakdown below this level would probably open the way for a decline towards the next resistance levels at 1.1790 and possibly 1.1830, the monthly high. Encouraging news of EU-US trade negotiations or a dovish Federal Reserve could also give additional impetus to the Euro. On the negative side, a clean break below 1.1720 might indicate further weakness in the EUR/USD pair. This would tend to provoke a test of the next support at 1.1680, with a possible decline to 1.1645 along the reverse trendline. Poor Eurozone economic data, disappointing ECB guidance, or ongoing US Dollar strength on the back of positive trade news may fuel the downward pressure.

Read More
Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Surges Past 0.6000 on Trade Hopes Despite RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

  • BY
  • July 23, 2025
  • 0 Comments

NZD/USD currency pair surges above the 0.6000 threshold, currently trading around 0.6025 during early European sessions on Wednesday, buoyed by positive market mood fueled by hopes of trade deals. Increased hopes of more US-China agreement, complemented by a surprise lowering of Japanese import tariffs announced by former President Trump, have lifted risk appetite, favoring the New Zealand Dollar. But risks are still on the downside as softer-than-anticipated New Zealand inflation figures have strengthened bets for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates in August, with markets currently pricing an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are pricing an 85% probability of a 25bps cut; confirmation could have significant bearing on the NZD. • Any news from Stockholm high-level meetings and tariff extension updates will be closely observed for their risk sentiment influence. • The initial July Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings in the US may impact USD strength and direction of NZD/USD. • Since it is an important trading partner, any indication of economic pressure or trade tension in China will have a direct bearing on the Kiwi. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to extend its rally, trading at around 0.6025 against the background of a boost in risk appetite fueled by improved trade sentiments following revived optimism over US-China talks. Traders are upbeat with evidence of progress on the US-China trade talks, such as completion of details of previous agreements and an unexpected reduction in tariffs on Japanese imports by Trump. This favorable setting has buoyed the New Zealand Dollar, a risk-sensitive currency. Nevertheless, caution remains as investors expect a probable rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in August after underestimating inflation data, and this would cap further gains in the pair. NZD/USD is traded around 0.6025, supported by positive risk mood following renewed US-China trade optimism. Yet, RBNZ rate cut expectations in August after soft inflation numbers might cap further gain. • NZD/USD advances to close to 0.6025, 0.40% higher in initial European trading. • Trade optimism prods the Kiwi as US and China wrap up deal details. • Trump announces lower tariff on Japanese imports, boosting risk appetite. • Potential US-China talks next week in Stockholm can sway direction. • New Zealand CPI data were lower than expected for Q2. • The markets anticipate an 85% probability of a 25bps RBNZ rate cut in August. • US PMI figures on Thursday will be watched closely for USD movement. The New Zealand Dollar is gaining strength from an upsurge of friendly trade sentiment, especially around developments between China and the United States. Recent comments from a Chinese embassy official reaffirmed that both countries have completed the details of implementing an earlier agreed upon deal between former President Trump and President Xi. This boosted market sentiment, particularly for risk-sensitive currencies such as the NZD. Complementing the optimistic tone, Trump also declared the slashing of tariffs on Japanese imports, dispelling fears of an aggressive trade policy and further enhancing global investor confidence. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView But even with the supportive trade environment, economic fundamentals in New Zealand are becoming worrying. Consumer prices in New Zealand increased lower than anticipated during the second quarter, sparking hope that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can decide on a rate cut in its next policy meeting. With the majority of the market already discounting a 25 basis point cut in August, sentiment on the Kiwi is still cautious. In the meantime, the market is following closely behind the next batch of US-China negotiations and US economic releases for further information on the global outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has recaptured the psychological level of 0.6000 and is stabilizing around 0.6025, showing short-term bullish momentum. If the couple holds above support at 0.6000, it could try to test the subsequent resistance area of 0.6050–0.6070. A decisive break above this level would usher the route towards 0.6100. At the bottom, the key support at 0.5980, and a violation thereof could leave the pair exposed to more losses towards 0.5950, indicating fresh bearish pressure. FORECAST If favorable trade trends persist—especially improvements in coming US-China talks and additional relief from tariffs—the NZD/USD pair could continue its upward movement. A prolonged risk-on market, facilitated by healthy global market sentiment and supportive US economic news, can drive the pair to resistance levels of about 0.6070 and even 0.6100. Any unexpected hawkish bias from the RBNZ or stabilization of New Zealand’s inflation trends could also be a factor for further gains. On the flip side, if future US economic data, including the PMI reading, are stronger than anticipated, the US Dollar can regain power and push the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, any renewed trade tensions or break in the US-China talks will reverse prevailing optimism and drive the Kiwi downwards. A confirmed RBNZ rate cut in August, particularly if combined with dovish forward guidance, might further pressure the pair, with potential falls towards 0.5950 or lower.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Towards Multi-Week Lows Due to Powell Tensions and Expectation of US Data

  • BY
  • July 17, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend on Thursday, reaching three-week lows at 1.1565 as investors prepared for a critical U.S. economic data and processed political tensions in Washington. Increased speculation surrounding the resignation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, following remarks from President Trump, prompted safe-haven flows into the U.S. Dollar. In the meantime, Eurozone inflation figures came as expected and did little to support the Euro. Market attention now turns to U.S. Retail Sales and Jobless Claims, due to influence the monetary policy of the Fed and the short-term path of the EUR/USD pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Future data might significantly impact Fed rate expectations and USD health. Strength could validate the “higher for longer” rate positioning. • Ongoing ambiguity regarding Fed Chair Powell’s role is contributing to uncertainty and fueling Dollar safe-haven demand. • The pair is probing important support at 1.1565; a drop below can be expected to spark a move towards 1.1535 or even lower. • Last inflation data equaling expectations can provide minimal reprieve for the Euro while bearish momentum persists. The EUR/USD pair is under sustained selling pressure, nearing three-week lows as traders react to political drama in the U.S. and await key economic indicators. Market sentiment was shaken after speculation surfaced regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s possible resignation, following criticism from President Trump. Although later denied, the mere suggestion intensified demand for the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. In the meantime, Eurozone CPI data reinforced initial inflation estimates with little supportive value to the Euro. With the strengthening Dollar, the next market moves are dependent on subsequent U.S. Retail Sales and Jobless Claims data, which will help further define the Fed’s monetary policy path. EUR/USD keeps falling, nearing multi-week lows on political tensions and before pivotal U.S. data releases. Speculation surrounding Fed Chairman Powell’s role and robust safe-haven appetite for the Dollar weigh on the Euro. Market players now expect U.S. Retail Sales and Jobless Claims for guidance. • EUR/USD falls close to 1.1565, a three-week low as bearish momentum picks up pace. •  Haven demand supports the US Dollar as markets respond to political turmoil in Washington. • Speculation about Fed Chair Powell quitting leads to volatility, but later refuted by the Fed. •  Eurozone CPI figures reaffirm preliminary estimates, with 2% YoY inflation and minimal effect on the Euro. • US Retail Sales to increase 0.1%, with Jobless Claims anticipated to climb to 235K. • Technicals indicate EUR/USD at critical support, with downside possible to 1.1535 if broken. • Traders carefully monitor U.S. data for signals about Fed’s rate trajectory and short-term USD firmness. The EUR/USD currency pair is under pressure as overall market sentiment turns against the Euro on increased political tension and upcoming economic releases. Investor attention shifted to speculation regarding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s future after President Trump made divisive comments implying he’d rather have Powell resign. While the White House later stated that Powell would not be removed, the comments were enough to spook markets and move towards safer assets such as the Dollar. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the European side, the Euro gained little support from the final inflation readings, which reinforced a continued increase in consumer prices within the Eurozone. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated that inflation hit the European Central Bank’s 2% threshold, and core inflation remained solid. This was insufficient, though, to give the Euro much traction as market participants were more interested in the U.S. economic forecast and politics. Consequently, the Dollar still gains from its safe-haven status in times of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is hovering around a vital support level between 1.1570 and 1.1565, which is the lower end of a falling channel that was formed in early July. The pair is showing sustained bearish momentum with the 4-hour RSI in a declining trend but not yet in overbought levels, suggesting scope for further decline. A clean break beneath 1.1565 would expose the way to the next significant support at 1.1535, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June bullish run. On the higher side, any bounce would be resisted by the former support area around 1.1655, followed by the upper boundary of the channel at around 1.1680. FORECAST If EUR/USD is able to stay above the critical support at 1.1565 and is supported by weaker-than-anticipated U.S. economic indicators, short-term recovery is possible. In such a scenario, the pair can try to make its way towards the immediate resistance at 1.1655, coinciding with the earlier support region. Breaking above the level may lead to further rally towards 1.1680, with scope to probe the psychological level around 1.1700 if bulls gain traction. Conversely, a clean break beneath the 1.1565 level would most likely affirm the resumption of the larger downtrend. This would move EUR/USD further to the downside toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement value at 1.1535. Should selling continue unabated, the pair would continue lower toward the June lows at 1.1455. Ongoing U.S. Dollar strength and geopolitical risk would justify this bearish outlook.

Read More
Commodities Oil – US Crude

USD/CAD Forecast: Bullish Bias Remains Above 1.3700 as Price Looks to Breakout from Bearish Channel

  • BY
  • July 16, 2025
  • 0 Comments

USD/CAD currency pair remains trading with a bullish bias above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by robust short-term momentum and a bullish technical configuration. Even as it consolidated inside a downtrend channel, the pair has been showing strength for the fourth session in succession, supported by the 14-day RSI remaining above the 50 level and price action still above the nine-day EMA. The short-term attention remains on the important resistance at the 50-day EMA around 1.3748, which if broken, can see a rally to the May high of 1.4016. Yet a breakdown of above short-term support at 1.3688 could leave the pair vulnerable to further losses towards multi-month bottoms. KEY LOOKOUTS • Look for a possible breakout above the 50-day EMA, which could pave the way for additional upside towards the 1.4016 level. • A breakdown below the nine-day EMA might undermine the short-term bullish momentum and cause a pullback towards June’s low of 1.3539. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index remaining above the middle-level 50 point signals sustained bullish inclination in the short term. • Watch price action near the top level of the declining channel at 1.3750 for hints on potential trend reversal or continuation. USD/CAD pair continues its rising trend, trading consistently above the level of 1.3700 in renewed bullish momentum. Although ranged within a falling channel, the pair’s strength is underpinned by the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 and price action above the nine-day EMA indicating short-term bullish potential. Principal resistance is now at the 50-day EMA around 1.3748, which is also the top of the channel. A clear break above this level may speed gains to the May high of 1.4016, with a failure to hold above 1.3688 likely to tempt bearish pressure. USD/CAD remains firm above 1.3700, with a bullish RSI and short-term moving averages giving it a supportive base. A breakout above 1.3748 may set the stage for more gains, with support at 1.3688 still pivotal. The pair remains within a falling channel, prompting traders to remain on guard. • USD/CAD is trading above 1.3700, its fourth day of consecutive gains. • The pair is still in a downtrending channel, which suggests continued consolidation. • The 14-day RSI is north of the 50 level, which is bullish in the short term. • The first resistance is at the 50-day EMA at 1.3748, which coincides with the top of the channel. • A break through 1.3748 may take the pair to the May high of 1.4016. • Key support is at the nine-day EMA of 1.3688; a break could prompt a decline to 1.3539. • Additional declines could reach multi-month lows at 1.3419 and the channel base at 1.3340. The USD/CAD currency pair has provided steadfast strength over recent trading sessions, an indication of restored investor faith in the US Dollar as global market dynamics shift. Economic announcements, interest rate forecasts, and geopolitical news have all played a part in the pair’s direction. Market participants are keeping a close eye on the overall macroeconomic context, particularly with regard to oil prices and North American trade flows, which in the past have influenced the Canadian Dollar’s performance. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides, market sentiment is also sensitive to major Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada announcements. The divergences in monetary policy directions between the two central banks usually create volatility for the USD/CAD currency pair. Since both economies are working their way through inflationary pressures and growth expectations, the pair tends to be quite active owing to fundamental changes and investor positioning. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is now moving within a falling channel, indicating a larger consolidation period. Yet, the pair has a bullish bias in the short term, as it is above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 mark. The nearest resistance comes at the 50-day EMA of 1.3748, which happens to be the upper line of the channel. A successful breakout above this zone could signal a shift in medium-term momentum, while failure to do so may keep the pair confined within its current range. FORECAST If USD/CAD can break through the pivotal resistance at the 50-day EMA around 1.3748 and the top of the falling channel, a more powerful bull trend could be triggered. Such a breach would enhance medium-term sentiment and potentially set the stage for a run toward the May high of 1.4016. Persistent buying interest above that level could also propel the pair into higher resistance levels, underpinned by positive momentum indicators. Conversely, a failure to stay above the near-term support at the nine-day EMA of 1.3688 may trigger fresh selling pressure. A fall below this level might expose the pair to further downward moves towards the June low of 1.3539. Fresh bearish pressure might send USD/CAD even lower towards 1.3419, which is the lowest print since February, with subsequent possible testing of the down channel’s lower border around 1.3340.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Struggles Near Multi-Week Low Ahead of Sensitive US CPI Data: Bearish Momentum Picks Up

  • BY
  • July 15, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD pair is trading in close bearish consolidation in the area of 1.3430, just above a multi-week low, while waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Downside pressure on the pair increases due to low UK macroeconomic data and increasing expectations of an August Bank of England rate cut. Conversely, the US Dollar continues to remain fairly supported with dwindling hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate reduction. Technically, the fall below the 100-period SMA confirms bearish expectations, although oversold conditions in RSI can expect intraday bounces prior to the resumption of the pair’s declining trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong reading may be bullish for the USD and further weaken GBP/USD; a weak print could offer temporary relief for the pair. • Bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England in August continue to be high, further boosting the bearish sentiment against the Pound. • The attempts at recovery are expected to encounter stiff resistance around 1.3470 and the psychological 1.3500 level. • Sustained price action below the 1.3400 level is expected to trigger new selling, subjecting the pair to targets on the downside such as 1.3355 and 1.3300. GBP/USD currency pair continues to trade around its multi-week low at around the 1.3430 level, supporting the timid sentiment from the traders in view of the vital US CPI release. Market mood is still bearish due to weak UK economic figures and increasing speculation over an August Bank of England rate cut against the backdrop of more cautious Fed on easing. While the US Dollar has drawn back from recent highs, any rally in GBP/USD will be capped by technical resistance in the 1.3470–1.3500 area. Overall, the bias remains to the downside unless inflation data causes a change of direction. GBP/USD is trading close to a multi-week low of 1.3430 as the market waits for US CPI numbers. Bearishness remains after poor UK data and increasing BoE rate cutting expectations. Upside is contained below 1.3500, and new downside risks only below 1.3400. • GBP/USD is in a bearish consolidation close to the 1.3430 mark, just above a multi-week low. • Market participants are wary before the crucial US CPI numbers, which may impact the Fed’s rate expectations. • Soft UK macroeconomic figures bolster the argument that the BoE might cut rates in August. • Disagreement between policy expectations for the BoE and Fed puts additional pressure on the Pound. • The pair has just broken below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, a negative technical warning. • RSI is oversold, which implies possible short-term intraday bounces. • The key support is 1.3400, with the following downside targets being 1.3355, 1.3300, and 1.3265. The GBP/USD currency pair is in pressure at present as traders wait for the release of the most recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. General sentiment remains defensive, with investors not wanting to make big bets before they know the way US inflation is headed, which would have implications for the Federal Reserve’s next course of action. Meanwhile, the British Pound remains under headwinds as a result of a weaker economic performance within the UK, in the aftermath of a series of disappointing releases on data, which furthered the expectations of an August rate cut by the Bank of England. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This difference in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has been behind a fundamentally bearish environment for GBP/USD. Whilst the Fed is likely to keep its finger on the rate hike trigger, the BoE is coming under increasing pressure to relax monetary conditions to prop up the UK economy. Consequently, market sentiment is still against the Pound, and traders are watching both economic data and central bank rhetoric from both the Atlantic and the Atlantic’s eastern seaboard very closely. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD recently fell below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour time frame, indicating a bearish trend in momentum. In spite of the downward pressure, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently stuck in oversold region, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation or slight bounce. Yet, any bounce is expected to encounter stiff resistance around the 1.3470–1.3500 zone, which might limit gains and keep the pair in selling pressure. A firm break below 1.3400 would most probably seal further losses, with the possibility of greater losses to come. FORECAST Should the coming US CPI data underwhelm and precipitate an across-the-board decline in the US Dollar, GBP/USD may experience an interim rebound. Early resistance should be at 1.3470, with a crossing of this line having a good chance of propelling the pair to the psychological 1.3500 barrier. Persistent force there could induce a short-covering rally with additional upside targets at 1.3550 and, potentially, 1.3600–1.3625, depending on market and momentum factors. To the downside, a clear break of the 1.3400 support area would most probably consolidate the bearish trend. In that event, GBP/USD might accelerate lower to 1.3355, with more losses hitting the 1.3300 mark. A further drop may even stretch to the 100-day Simple Moving Average, which is currently at around the 1.3265 area, as the market reacts to the increasing divergence between BoE and Fed policy expectations.

Read More
Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls as Tariff Uncertainty and Robust US Jobs Data Boost USD, Bears Target 1.1660 Support

  • BY
  • July 11, 2025
  • 0 Comments

EUR/USD currency pair continues to lose ground for the third day running as fresh US tariff threats and better-than-expected US jobless claims data support the US Dollar at the expense of the Euro. President Trump’s threat of higher tariffs on the EU and other trading partners has soured market sentiment, raising questions on continued trade talks. Meanwhile, a robust US jobs market, as evidenced by better-than-expected jobless claims, has tempered hopes of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, also bolstering the greenback. Although EUR/USD posted a weak intraday bounce, the currency pair remains in bearish mode, with critical support targets at the 1.1660–1.1650 band. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Look out for additional updates or developments in US-EU trade tensions after President Trump’s recent announcement of additional tariffs, which could put a heavy burden on the Euro. •  Persistent resilience in US jobless claims and labor market news could temper expectations for Fed rate cuts, bolstering the USD. •  Disagreement among central bank policymakers may influence sentiment; near-term direction will depend heavily on ECB and Fed policymakers’ comments. •  Be watchful of the 1.1660–1.1650 support level. A strong break below this area may lead to further downside towards the 1.1630 Fibonacci area. EUR/USD pair remains under pressure due to revived trade tensions and robust US economic statistics, which have strengthened the US Dollar. President Trump’s threat of higher tariffs against the European Union shook markets and put a damper on risk appetite, and surprisingly low US jobless claims further dampened expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. The Euro is therefore on the back foot, below the 1.1700 mark and continuing its corrective fall from the July 1 high. With support at 1.1660–1.1650 under pressure being the key, the pair is in a crucial test, and any further weakening can expose the pair to deeper losses. EUR/USD is back under pressure as new US-EU trade tensions and robust US jobless figures support the US Dollar. The pair stays below 1.1700, with key support at 1.1660–1.1650 under focus. Market sentiment is still cautious as diverging central bank signals wait to be clarified. •  EUR/USD is pressured for the third consecutive day due to renewed US-EU trade tensions. •  President Trump’s latest tariff threat targets the European Union, spooking the markets and increasing the concerns of a wider trade war. •  Better-than-anticipated US jobless claims figures supported the US Dollar and decreased the expectations of a Fed rate cut in July. •  Divergent opinions inside the Fed and ECB make monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic uncertain. •  The Euro has rebounded slightly from intraday lows, but still trades below the important 1.1700 level. •  Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with support at 1.1660–1.1650 with possible downside towards 1.1630. •   Market sentiment continues to be guarded, as investors wait for additional trade developments and central bank remarks. The EUR/USD pair continues to be plagued by fresh geopolitical and economic issues, specifically relating to US-EU trade relations. President Trump’s recent tariff announcement covering wider tariffs, including the European Union, has rekindled fears of a transatlantic trade war. These events have spooked investors and cooled global risk appetite, leading to risk aversion in currency markets. EU officials remain optimistic about securing a deal prior to August 1, indicating continuous diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, in the United States, more resilient-than-expected labor market statistics have contributed to the US Dollar’s strength. Unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, supporting perceptions of economic resilience and making the outlook for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve more complicated. The Fed is said to be split, with some policymakers urging policy relaxation amid inflation due to trade, while others are still ambivalent. This disagreement contributes to uncertainty, as markets wait for additional clues from central banks and forthcoming macroeconomic announcements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD remains on a bearish trend, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows ever since it reached its peak of 1.1830 on July 1. The pair is now in a broadening wedge formation, with support bunched at the 1.1660–1.1650 area, corresponding to the recent lows and the channel’s lower boundary. Momentum indicators like the 4-hour RSI continue to trade below the 50 level, reflecting bearish momentum but not oversold, implying scope for further losses. If this crucial support area is broken, the next likely target is close to 1.1630, while resistance still holds at 1.1710 and 1.1750. FORECAST If EUR/USD is able to stay above the crucial support zone of 1.1660–1.1650, a short-term turnaround may be possible. A bounce above the 1.1700 level could attract additional buying interest, with near-term resistance at 1.1710. Further out, the 1.1740–1.1750 band, encompassing the top of the present-day wedge pattern, would serve as a robust cap. A decisive break over this level could propel sentiment further to the upside, potentially paving the way towards the 1.1790–1.1830 region. On the negative side, a clear break below the 1.1650 support level might initiate fresh selling pressure, with the next stop at 1.1630—corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the latest rally. If selling pressures continue, the pair may head lower towards the 1.1600 psychological level. Ongoing pressure from trade tensions and strong US economic data might further burden the Euro, strengthening the bearish perspective in the near term.

Read More
Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Struggles Amid Tariff Tensions and Political Uncertainty; USD/JPY Aims for More Gains

  • BY
  • July 9, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to struggle even after a slight bounce back from its recent two-week trough against the US Dollar (USD) due to increased fears about the economic consequences of US-imposed tariffs and domestic political tensions. Market participants increasingly feel the Bank of Japan will keep further rate hikes on the backburner, particularly with Japan’s economy also showing signs of weakness and wages tumbling sharply. In the meantime, the USD remains supported by expectations the Federal Reserve will continue to have higher interest rates to counter the inflationary pressures generated by import tariffs. The technical bias for the USD/JPY pair continues to remain bullish, with major levels underpinning scope for further gains in the near term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets await the imminent Fed minutes for new cues on the timing and magnitude of probable rate reductions. • The July 20 House of Councillors election coming up and uncertainty regarding the ruling coalition’s majority can further dent JPY sentiment. • Market action around the US-imposed 25% tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations will continue to be a market driver. • The 100-day SMA around 146.00 is a key support, while 147.60–148.00 is a crucial resistance area for the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen continues to stay on the back foot despite some rally, as fears of US-imposed tariffs and political instability at home remain firmly in place, pushing the currency downwards. Expecations of the Bank of Japan remaining dovish on rate hikes with soft economic data and declining real wages have also weighed on JPY sentiment. The US Dollar is, however, underpinned by a solid Fed outlook with increasing inflation pressures from tariffs and a robust labor market. While investors wait for the FOMC minutes to gain clarity on the Fed’s policy direction, the USD/JPY currency pair is indicating strength with technicals signaling further possible upside. The Japanese Yen is still under pressure due to tariff jitters and political uncertainty in Japan. The US Dollar, on the other hand, remains underpinned on hopes of higher-for-longer Fed rates. Traders now look to the FOMC minutes to gain new policy clues on the USD/JPY currency pair. • Japanese Yen strengthens somewhat but hovers close to a two-week low versus the US Dollar. • US tariffs on Japanese products and economic damage concerns are bearing down on the JPY. • Political uncertainty within Japan in the run-up to the July 20 election also contributes to Yen weakness. • Bank of Japan will likely leave rates unchanged, citing weak economic data and declining real wages. •  US Dollar remains strong on expectations of no near-term Fed rate reductions in the face of inflation concerns. • Technicals are positive for a rally in USD/JPY towards 147.60–148.00. • FOMC meeting minutes are in the spotlight for additional insight into the Fed policy tone. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure in the face of a mix of global trade tensions and domestic political risks. US President Donald Trump’s move to apply a 25% tariff to Japanese imports effective August 1 has alarmed the country about the potential macroeconomic effect on Japan, considering the nation’s already weak economic condition. The contraction of Japan’s first quarter and declining real wages underscore the pressure on household consumption and overall economic trajectory. These have convinced investors that the Bank of Japan is most likely to continue its ultra-loose monetary stance in the near future, cutting the attractiveness of the Yen for global investors. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the economic woes is increasing political instability in Japan. Recent opinion polls indicate that the government coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito could fall short of a majority in the next July 20 election for the House of Councillors. Such a result could lead to policy gridlock and make it more difficult for Japan to negotiate trade deals with the United States. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is still supported by solid labor market data and hopes that the Federal Reserve will postpone interest rate reductions. These factors continue to drive investor sentiment and are the most important determinants of the dynamics between the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair has registered fresh bullish strength after breaking above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in February, which is a possible trend change indicator. Daily chart oscillators are picking up positive momentum but still linger below the overbought threshold, indicating scope for higher levels. Near-term resistance lies around the 147.60–147.65 area, with the possible extension towards the 148.00 psychological level. On the negative, support is now present around the 146.50 level, followed by a firmer base near the 100-day SMA just below the 146.00 area, which is an important pivot for any bearish turn. FORECAST The USD/JPY pair looks set to gain further in the near term, underpinned by a robust US Dollar and positive technical configuration. As long as the bullish momentum continues, the pair could test the 147.60–147.65 barrier, with a possible breakout opening the door for a run to the 148.00 round number. Ongoing strong US data, solid Fed rate expectations, and safe-haven demand away from the Yen could continue to support demand for the USD/JPY pair. On the negative side, any corrective pullback is likely to encounter initial support around the 146.50 area, with renewed buying anticipated closer to the 100-day SMA, just below the 146.00 level. A firm break below this important level may switch the short-term bias to bearish shores and set the stage for a more significant decline. That said, barring a major change in monetary policy expectations or a breakthrough in trade tensions, downside excursions could remain capped.

Read More