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EUR/USD Falls Below 1.1800 as US Dollar Strengthens on Robust Job Figures and Powell’s Cautious Note

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  • July 2, 2025
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EUR/USD currency pair is further falling below the 1.1800 mark as the US Dollar strengthens on the back of solid economic data and a cautious note from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. A steep increase in US JOLTS Job Openings and higher-than-anticipated ISM Manufacturing PMI data have restored investor sentiment in the US economy, upholding the Greenback. On the other hand, dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials and a surprise rise in Eurozone unemployment have dragged the Euro lower. With markets looking forward to the ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls news, bearish technical indicators indicate more downside risk for EUR/USD. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are waiting for the ADP Employment Change report for June, due to report a 95K increase in jobs, and which will determine the tone before Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. • Investors will be watching ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments at the Sintra Summit closely for any new policy indications with creeping Eurozone unemployment. • EUR/USD is gaining more bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart, with a Head & Shoulders setup looking to target support at 1.1690–1.1650. • Robust US data and Powell’s conservative “wait-and-see” stance remain in favor of the USD, lowering short-term rate cut prospects. EUR/USD currency pair is bearish as the US Dollar strengthens on the back of a robust set of economic data and conservative statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. After briefly recovering above 1.1800, the Euro has turned back, buried by the surprise increase in Eurozone unemployment and dovish rhetoric from ECB officials. Conversely, the US labor market remains resilient, with both JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI beating forecasts. While markets shift their attention to the next big events such as the ADP Employment Change and ECB President Lagarde speech, bearish technical indications point toward potential further EUR/USD decline. EUR/USD extends losses as the US Dollar strengthens on positive job data and Powell’s dovish attitude. Higher Eurozone unemployment and dovish ECB news increase pressure on the Euro. Markets now look to the ADP Employment report and Lagarde’s speech for new direction. • EUR/USD trades below 1.1800, reversing from recent multi-year highs at 1.1830. • US Dollar gathers strength on positive JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI data. • Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also conservative in tone, stressing a “wait-and-see” stance on rate cuts. • Eurozone unemployment rose unexpectedly to 6.3%, weighing on the Euro. • Dovish statements by officials such as Rehn and Centeno on the ECB suggest possible further easing. • Bearish Head & Shoulders formation on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart directs the focus toward a decline to 1.1690–1.1650. • Attention turns to next US ADP report and ECB President Lagarde’s speech for further guidance. The EUR/USD currency pair is under renewed bearish pressure with economic divergence between the Eurozone and the United States being increasingly highlighted. The Euro is negatively influenced by a surprise increase in Eurozone unemployment to 6.3%, in addition to dovish comments from European Central Bank officials who remain worried about chronically low inflation. While German production figures revealed some relief and Eurozone CPI flattened, these were not enough to boost sentiment due to investors’ expectations of a more conservative ECB policy course in the near term. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is strengthening on recent figures that reinforce the solidity of the US economy. Solid job opportunities and a recovery in the ISM Manufacturing PMI have been timed with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovishness at the ECB Forum in Sintra, where he invoked caution to follow data closely prior to making any policy action. With strong labor market data and steadfast inflation indications, the Fed is likely to stay patient on rate cuts, providing the USD with a steady tailwind. Focus then shifts to the ADP Employment report and Nonfarm Payrolls, which may offer more insight into the outlook for the US economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is seen gathering bearish momentum following its inability to hold above the 1.1800 mark. The pair has broken below the Head & Shoulders neckline on the 1-hour chart and is now poised for a trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling lower into negative ground, supporting the bearish view. A confirmed decline below Tuesday’s low at 1.1760 would leave the door open toward the pattern’s measured target at 1.1690. Below that, focal support is between Tuesday’s June 27 low at 1.1680 and Monday’s June 26 low at 1.1650. On the positive side, there is resistance at 1.1810 and 1.1830 and stronger resistance at 1.1850 indicated by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. FORECAST Should EUR/USD be able to stay above the 1.1760 level and recover bullish strength, the pair may try to retest the 1.1800 psychological level. A break above 1.1810 and sustained would reveal the recent high at 1.1830. Additional bullish pressure may drive the pair to the 1.1850 resistance, indicated by the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the June 26–30 rally. A positive change in Eurozone fundamentals or dovish US labor statistics can serve as a catalyst for higher highs. On the negative, inability to hold the 1.1760 support would speed the bearish correction. Breaking below this level would affirm the Head & Shoulders formation and aim for the next significant support at 1.1690. Ongoing pressure selling might take EUR/USD towards the 1.1680–1.1650 region, where buyers might intervene to stabilize the pair. Poor Eurozone economic data or better-than-anticipated US labor statistics would tend to strengthen the downward path.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Falls to Eight-Month Lows as Persistent Bearish Pressure Continues: Key Support Points in Spotlight

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  • June 12, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair continued its downward slide, dipping to around 1.3650 on Thursday’s Asian trading session, near its eight-month low of 1.3634. The pair continues to be under constant bearish pressure, moving within a falling channel pattern. Technical indicators, including the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding marginally above 30 and the price below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), still point to weak momentum. A clean break below 1.3634 may set the stage for further declines to 1.3450 and 1.3419. On the other hand, any rally may encounter initial resistance at 1.3695, with firmer hurdles around 1.3720 and 1.3874. KEY LOOKOUTS • The duo is near its eight-month nadir; a breach below may induce further falls towards 1.3450 and 1.3419. • The 14-day RSI is still just above 30, which continues bearish pressure; a decline below this level might indicate an oversold situation and potential bounce. • Near-term resistance is near the nine-day EMA and the top of the falling channel, which may cap any upside attempts. • If upward momentum is regained, the pair can aim at the 50-day EMA at 1.3874 and subsequently the high of two months at 1.4016. USD/CAD pair is still experiencing selling pressure, trading close to 1.3660 and testing major support levels with bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. The duo is still held in a bearish descending channel, and indicators like the 14-day RSI resting just above 30 and price remaining below the nine-day EMA at 1.3695 indicate minimal upside momentum. If bears drive the pair under key 1.3634 support, additional losses toward 1.3450 and 1.3419 may develop. Conversely, any upward correction can find resistance around 1.3695 and 1.3720, with a better recovery possibly aiming for 1.3874 and 1.4016. USD/CAD is trading around 1.3660, nearing its eight-month low in the wake of continuous bearish pressure. Its key support stands at 1.3634, with further decline possible if this support is breached. Its nearest resistance comes at 1.3695, capping any possible recovery. • USD/CAD is trading at 1.3660, near the eight-month low of 1.3634. • The pair is under bear pressure, trading in a falling channel pattern. • The 14-day RSI remains marginally above 30, reflecting bear momentum with minimal upside potential. • A decline below 1.3634 may take the pair to 1.3450 and 1.3419 support levels. • Intraday resistance is at the nine-day EMA of 1.3695, followed by 1.3720. • A break above 1.3720 can clear the way to the 50-day EMA of 1.3874 and May’s high of 1.4016. • Short-term sentiment in the market remains negative unless major resistance levels are taken out. The USD/CAD currency pair remains in the spotlight as wider market forces and economic fundamentals dictate investor attitude. Global risk appetite, commodities prices, and monetary policy expectations of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada have been key drivers in recent changes. Other factors include oil prices, as they tend to influence the Canadian Dollar because Canada is a top oil producer, that are currently directing the pair’s overall trajectory. USD/CAD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, investors are also watching closely for upcoming releases of economic data such as inflation rates, employment reports, and central bank statements from both nations. All these help support continued volatility and uncertainty across currency markets as the traders move to adjust their positions in line with changing economic signals and geopolitical events. The interaction between the global safe-haven status of the US Dollar and the commodity-linked dynamics of the Canadian Dollar continue to be a primary propellant for the pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is under pressure in a defined bearish channel on the daily chart. The pair is below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which reflects poor short-term momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 30 level, which means the bearish slope is still in place but is reaching oversold levels. A dramatic drop below the recent low at 1.3634 would precipitate deeper losses, and any rally would encounter initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3695, followed by the channel’s upper edge at 1.3720. FORECAST USD/CAD could drop below the crucial support level of 1.3634, leaving the pair vulnerable to further losses towards 1.3450. Ongoing selling pressure could later even drive the price down to 1.3419, levels last witnessed in February 2024. Weaker US Dollar sentiment, more robust Canadian economic news, or higher oil prices could potentially speed up this falling path. On the positive side, a continued recovery above the nine-day EMA at 1.3695 could mean a short-term reversal of the uptrend. A break above the upper edge of the descending channel at around 1.3720 might set the way for a move to the 50-day EMA at 1.3874. If buying pressure gains further, USD/CAD might try to reapproach the two-month high of 1.4016, which was last witnessed in mid-May.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Climbs Around 0.6040 as US Tariff Policy Fosters Uncertainty and Undermines Dollar

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  • June 12, 2025
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NZD/USD currency pair bounced back to trade around 0.6040 in early European morning on Thursday, driven by the weakness of the US Dollar due to increasing uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a seven-week low at about 98.30 after President Donald Trump announced plans to send formal letters to trading partners detailing ultimate trade deals and tariff rates, focusing on those not negotiating in good faith. As the New Zealand Dollar rose against the Greenback, it lagged the other currencies on concerns the US-China trade truce was unsustainable, with China committing to provide rare earth elements and magnets, while the US would slap much higher tariffs in retaliation. KEY LOOKOUTS • President Trump’s decision to submit final trade terms to trading partners is being closely followed by markets, and it could affect global trade and currency movements. • The DXY’s decline to a seven-week low at about 98.30 continues to shape NZD/USD, with more weakness potentially propping up the Kiwi. • There are still concerns about the long-term sustainability of the US-China deal, particularly considering the disparity in tariff levels and trade concessions. • China’s commitment to supply rare earths and magnets could ease some industrial pressures but may also signal deeper geopolitical complexities. NZD/USD pair regained strength and climbed to near 0.6040 as the US Dollar weakened amid rising uncertainty over the United States’ tariff policy. President Trump’s pledge to unilaterally send the last trade deals to non-cooperating trading partners has contributed to market unease, sending the US Dollar Index to a seven-week low near 98.30. Although the New Zealand Dollar found refuge against the Greenback, doubts surrounding the longevity of the US-China trade ceasefire persist, particularly as the agreement significantly tilts US tariff rates and China commits to providing rare earths and magnets. NZD/USD rose close to 0.6040 as the US Dollar struggled in the wake of heightened uncertainty surrounding US tariff policy. President Trump’s move to send concluding trade terms to partners put pressure on the Greenback, with uncertainty still surrounding how long-lasting the US-China trade accord will be. The China supply of rare earths brings some solace but injects uncertainty into long-term trade stability. • NZD/USD appreciates around 0.6040 as the US Dollar loses strength in early European session trading. • US Dollar Index (DXY) falls to a seven-week low around 98.30, indicating growing pressure on the Greenback. • President Trump reveals intentions to submit final trade deals to partners who are not negotiating in good faith. • Market uncertainty increases about the future direction of US tariff policies and possible world trade tensions. • China commits to exporting rare earths and magnets, offering industrial inputs vital for US industry. • Imbalance in tariffs is worrisome, with 55% tariffs imposed by the US against 10% from China, which could put strain on the trade truce. • NZD finds support from USD but trails against other major currencies owing to ongoing trade concerns. The latest updates on US trade policy have been closely followed by global markets. President Donald Trump’s move to proceed with submitting final trade deals to countries not in active talks adds an extra layer of uncertainty to global trade relations. By suggesting fixed terms and tariffs rates without additional negotiations, the US government is indicating a harder line that could actually redefine global trade policies. This step has sent investors into contemplation mode as they determine the potential long-term effects of such one-sided action. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, the deal between the US and China, where China agreed to provide rare earth elements and magnets, points to the strategic significance of key resources in trade discussions. Trump’s remarks also emphasized the continued educational and cultural exchanges, with Chinese students still taking up study in the US. While the significant imbalance in tariff levels — with the US charging much higher tariffs — has created concerns over the longevity of this deal and the wider implications for future US-China relations, the changing circumstances continue to shape market mood and global economic expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is stabilizing after the early losses, with the pair near a critical resistance level around 0.6040. If the pair holds above this level, it could open the way for further upside towards the next resistance at 0.6070-0.6100. To the downside, initial support is at 0.6000, followed by firmer support around 0.5970, which has worked as a pivot zone in the past. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD point to a neutral to marginally bullish bias, however, traders are being cautious with constant trade developments. FORECAST If the NZD/USD currency pair is able to hold firm on its upward momentum above the level of 0.6040, it should try to test the subsequent resistance areas of 0.6070 and 0.6100. A continued break above these levels would encourage additional buying pressure and may drive the pair up to the region of 0.6150. Positive news on global trade talks or additional strength in the US Dollar could also contribute to further upside traction. On the flip side, in case the pair is not able to hold above 0.6040, it could come under fresh selling pressure. The first support comes at the 0.6000 psychological mark, followed by more robust support near 0.5970. A fall below these levels would indicate more severe losses, potentially until the 0.5920 level. Any adverse news on trade tensions or better US economic data will bear upon the pair.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Remains Close to 0.6500 as Investors Wait for Key US CPI and Treasury Sale

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  • June 11, 2025
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AUD/USD exchange rate remains close to the 0.6500 level as sentiment in the markets becomes guarded in the run-up to important US economic releases. Although initial expectations of a US-China trade agreement provided short-term relief to the Australian Dollar, diminishing faith in the permanence of the deal has resumed selling pressure. Meanwhile, a softer US Dollar is capping the downside for the Aussie. Traders now look to the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a large 10-year Treasury Bond auction, both of which are likely to bring better guidance on the greenback and determine the next direction of the AUD/USD pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are closely monitoring the release of US Consumer Price Index data due out, with hopes of a modest increase in inflation having a potential influence on Federal Reserve policy and USD strength. • The $39 bln 10-year Treasury auction may tell us about investor faith in US fiscal soundness, with thin demand perhaps adding further pressure on the US Dollar. • There is still doubt over the long-term viability of the recent US-China trade deal, especially with regards to rare earth metals and tariffs, that may affect risk sentiment and commodity currencies such as the Aussie. • The pair is probing important psychological support around 0.6500; any drop below this level may unveil additional downside, while holding here may prompt short-term re-covering contingent on US data results. Australian Dollar traded weakly as dimming hopes for the preliminary US-China trade accord dragged market sentiment lower. While initial news of the agreement to roll back curbs on rare earth metals and lower tariffs initially boosted risk appetite, failure to provide tangible details has caused investors to doubt its sustainability. In the meantime, the US Dollar’s recent retreat has forestalled further losses for the Aussie and kept the AUD/USD pair close to the 0.6500 level. Market players now begin focusing on the next US CPI report and Treasury Bond auction, which are likely to be pivotal in setting the near-term direction of the currency pair. The AUD/USD currency pair is trading around 0.6500 as markets wait for significant US economic releases. Dwindling faith in the US-China trade agreement has contained the gains in the Aussie, while a soft US Dollar provides some support. The release of US CPI and upcoming Treasury auction should determine the next course. • AUD/USD trades around 0.6500 in conservative market mood. • US-China trade deal optimism in early stages gives way to disappointment due to insufficient clear details. • Soft US Currency keeps the Australian Dollar from its deeper losses. • US Dollar Index withdraws back below 99.00 following recent highs. • Traders look for US CPI numbers, which are likely to reveal a slight increase in inflation. • A $39 bln US Treasury 10-year bond sale can dictate USD sentiment. • Major support for AUD/USD is at the 0.6500 psychological line. The Australian Dollar is being driven by changing global sentiment as investors absorb the latest news between China and the US. Both nations are reported to have agreed on a preliminary deal to relax rare metal trade restrictions and reduce some tariffs. Yet with scant official information, markets are holding back on jumping to conclusions about the long-term implications and durability of the deal. This doubt continues to drive investor behavior as they navigate the global dynamics of trade. AUD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, eyes are shifting towards important coming events in the US that can potentially affect global financial markets. The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide valuable information on inflation trends, while the $39 billion auction of the 10-year Treasury bond can indicate investor sentiment towards US fiscal policy. Both events have the potential to move overall market mood and currency valuations, making them vital for traders to watch. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is trading close to the crucial psychological support of 0.6500. A consistent stay above this level might prompt buyers to aim for the immediate resistance near 0.6550, then the 0.6600 zone. On the bearish side, a clear break below 0.6500 might set the scene for lower levels towards 0.6450 and even 0.6400. Technical indicators on the shorter charts indicate a neutral to weak bearish slant, with the traders waiting for more decisive cues from future US data releases. FORECAST In the event of the US CPI releasing below market expectations or a muted pick-up, it could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further. This would soften the US Dollar, supporting the AUD/USD to rise above the 0.6500 level. Anything positive on the US-China trade deal as well as any further clarification regarding the deal would enhance risk appetite, further supporting the Australian Dollar. On the other hand, if US inflation figures surprise to the upside, this can stoke anticipation of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy, increasing the attractiveness of the US Dollar and applying downward pressure to AUD/USD. Additionally, poor demand for the US Treasury bond auction can fuel worries about US fiscal health, which could initially bring risk assets such as the Aussie under pressure. But ongoing uncertainty regarding the US-China trade deal would maintain the pair under selling pressure if investor sentiment remains uncertain.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Declines Below 1.3850 as Dollar Retreats Ahead of Highly Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report

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  • May 2, 2025
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USD/CAD pair fell below the 1.3850 level in Friday’s Asian session, trading around 1.3830, as the U.S. Dollar receded ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Although the greenback had gained some strength recently, investor caution re-emerged with doubts about how current tariff measures are affecting job growth. Greater positive sentiment in the market, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s positive comments on trade agreements with major Asian allies provided some relief to the USD. In contrast, softer-than-anticipated economic reports from both the U.S. and Canada—such as increasing U.S. unemployment claims and a third consecutive drop in Canada’s Manufacturing PMI—added to the conservative tone. The Bank of Canada’s recent meeting minutes also indicated a contained policy stance, dampening hopes of near-term rate reductions in spite of continued economic weakness. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players are all eyes on Friday’s NFP reports for indications of how tariffs and trade tensions are impacting the U.S. labor market, and possibly impacting the direction of the USD. • Any breakthrough or delays in U.S. trade talks with China, India, Japan, and South Korea may determine market mood and USD strength. • While the BoC has kept rates steady in the face of sticky inflation and a robust labor market, future economic releases will be pivotal in determining future rate expectations. • Further softness in Canada’s manufacturing sector and other macro datapoints could bear down on the CAD, particularly if economic slowdown accelerates. USD/CAD pair are the following U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which might offer vital information on the effects of tariffs on employment and shape Federal Reserve policy expectations. Market participants are also watching events on the trade front, as any improvement in U.S. negotiations with China, India, Japan, and South Korea might enhance risk appetite and underpin the U.S. Dollar. On the Canadian side, ongoing weakness in manufacturing—dramatized by April’s steep decline in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI—may continue to stress the Canadian Dollar. Further, the Bank of Canada’s conservative policy tone, as embodied in its most recent meeting minutes, indicates that rate decisions will continue to be highly data-sensitive, so coming economic releases will be important for the CAD outlook. Traders are keeping a close eye on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for indications of the impact of tariffs on the labor market, which may alter USD sentiment. Poor Canadian manufacturing figures and the Bank of Canada’s conservative approach contribute to downside pressure on the CAD. Trade updates also continue to be a primary market driver. •  USD/CAD dipped below 1.3850, trading at around 1.3830 during Friday’s Asian session with a lull in the recent rally of the U.S. Dollar. • Investor attention is on the forthcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release, which can provide insights on whether tariffs are impacting employment trends. • U.S. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 241,000, exceeding estimates and introducing caution to the economic outlook. • The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, still in contraction but better than predicted, providing mixed signals. •  Canada’s Manufacturing PMI dipped to 45.3 in April, lowest since May 2020, indicating ongoing sectoral weakness. • Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.75%, due to sticky core inflation and a firming labor market, but left the door open for future rate cuts. • Optimistic market sentiment trailed following U.S. President Trump’s comments on the possibility of trade agreements with significant Asian economies, providing partial support to the USD. Investor sentiment in the USD/CAD cross is being influenced by a combination of economic data and geopolitical events. With the focus now shifting to the impending U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, markets are looking forward to gaining some insight into how existing trade policies, most notably tariffs, are potentially impacting employment and general economic activity. The latest comments from U.S. President Donald Trump hinting at possible trade deals with nations such as India, Japan, and South Korea have also alleviated some of the concerns related to trade. Moreover, news of China being willing to resume talks with the U.S. has also added to a slightly positive market sentiment. USD/CAD DAILY CHART PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In Canada, economic data continues to reflect strain, especially in the manufacturing segment. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined for the third consecutive month in April to its weakest since the beginning of the pandemic. In spite of these conditions, the policy rate was left unchanged by the Bank of Canada due to entrenched core inflation as well as an unemployment market which proved surprisingly resistent. With both economies charting mixed data and shifting trade dynamics, market players are prudent, awaiting future economic releases and policy announcements for firmer guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has retreated after it failed to hold above the resistance 1.3850 level, hinting at a possible short-term consolidation. The duo is now trading around the 1.3830 level, with short-term support at 1.3800, a level that has served as a psychological floor in recent sessions. A breach below this support would pave the way towards 1.3750. On the higher side, a move above 1.3850 would be required to be sustained to restore bullish momentum, with the next resistance likely at 1.3900. Momentum tools like the RSI are turning lower, hinting at a possible continuation of range-bound behavior unless there is a robust catalyst. FORECAST Unless strong catalysts occur, like better-than-expected U.S. economic statistics on the next major releases, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls, this optimism in USD will fade and can potentially favor further downward moves to CAD. Strengthening trade sentiment, most likely should breakthroughs emerge on trade deals with China or other significant trading partners, might support positive momentum as well. Technically, a breakout above the 1.3850 resistance level could set the stage for the 1.3900–1.3950 range, particularly if risk appetite sours and investors flock to the safety of the USD. Conversely, however, if U.S. jobs data sends the wrong message or hints at slowing economic growth owing to tariff pressures, the USD could face fresh selling pressure. Dollar weakness would drag USD/CAD down,

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls as ECB Reduces Rates in Face of Global Trade News and Market Volatility

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  • April 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair experienced fresh selling pressure, declining back to 1.1340 following the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to make a widely expected 25 basis point cut in rates — its sixth successive reduction — as part of its ongoing campaign to nudge inflation back towards the 2% goal in the face of a weakening Eurozone economy. The ECB’s move, along with its deletion of previous language indicating interest rates are still restrictive, hints at a possible end to the easing cycle. In the meantime, optimism about U.S.-Japan trade talks gave the U.S. Dollar a boost, while doubts over U.S.-China trade ties and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish economic outlook kept global markets on edge. In spite of the near-term retreat, EUR/USD still has a bullish technical setup, with the next significant resistance seen at 1.1500. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank cut its key lending rates by 25 basis points but importantly avoided saying that rates will continue to be “restrictive” — suggesting that it might be ready to end its easing cycle as inflation trends improve. • Encouraging developments in trade talks between Japan and the U.S., which were highlighted by President Trump, relieved the U.S. Dollar and dampened EUR/USD recovery efforts. • Investors are looking forward to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for greater insights into the central bank’s future policy direction, particularly how the continued global trade tensions affect it. •  As EUR/USD dipped below 1.1340, technical metrics such as the 14-day RSI holding above 70 and more sloping EMAs indicate the pair’s wider bullish trend is intact. The EUR/USD pair fell under renewed selling pressure, moving towards 1.1340 after the European Central Bank (ECB) declared a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, its sixth in a row since the beginning of its easing cycle. The ECB’s decision reflects its ongoing efforts to tame inflation and support a slowing Eurozone economy, though the omission of any reference to rates remaining “restrictive” suggests policymakers may be eyeing a temporary pause. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar regained strength on the back of positive progress in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, offering some relief to global markets amid persistent uncertainty over U.S.-China trade relations. Even with the ongoing correction, the EUR/USD pair still has a generally bullish outlook, with investors waiting anxiously for further guidance from ECB President Christine Lagarde’s next comments. EUR/USD continued to decline towards 1.1340 after the ECB trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points, as anticipated, indicating a possible end to its easing cycle. The U.S. Dollar strengthened amid positive U.S.-Japan trade news, further putting pressure on the pair. Investors now look to ECB President Lagarde’s remarks for new policy guidance. •  The European Central Bank cut its main borrowing costs as expected, its sixth consecutive reduction in response to softening Eurozone growth and cooling inflation. •  The EUR/USD currency pair fell towards 1.1340 following the rate decision, with strong selling pressure during early North American trading hours. •  For the first time in months, the ECB left out the word indicating interest rates are “restrictive,” which may indicate a possible halt to its rate-cutting cycle. •  Encouraging news from U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, led by President Trump’s announcement of “big progress,” brought relief to the U.S. Dollar. •   Markets are looking to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for insight into future policy direction, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainty. •  In spite of the recent decline, the EUR/USD currency pair maintains a bullish setup with the support of higher sloping EMAs and the RSI remaining above the 70 level. •  Continued uncertainty regarding U.S.-China trade tensions continues to overshadow market sentiment, keeping traders defensive in the short term. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced yet another 25 basis point cut in interest rates, its sixth consecutive rate reduction since initiating its monetary easing cycle in June. The move is an extension of the ECB’s continued bid to stabilize the Eurozone economy as inflation makes slow progress towards its 2% target. Notably, the central bank did not reproduce its standard line that interest rates would continue to be “restrictive,” implying policymakers may be weighing a pause in additional reductions. The ECB reiterated that future policy will be “data-dependent” and influenced by the current global economic situation, specifically the uncertainty of international trade patterns. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, international market focus has turned to developments in negotiations of trade talks between the United States and Japan. Favorable comments from both parties indicate better ties, providing a breath of relief for international markets that have been under pressure from tariff tensions. As the U.S.-Japan talks are progressing, however, general anxiety over the U.S.-China trade war remains, causing businesses and investors to remain guarded. As policymakers around the world adjust to these rapidly changing circumstances, market players are monitoring closely for any indication of how governments and central banks will act to protect economic stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD currency pair is undergoing a good correction after unable to maintain its momentum above the 1.1400 mark. Even after the correction, the overall trend is bullish since the price continues to trade above the major short-to-long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating underlying strength. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to remain above the 70 level, indicating that bullish momentum remains in place, though marginally overheated in the near term. Traders are currently monitoring the psychological resistance level of 1.1500, which is still a critical upside target, while the April 11 low around 1.1190 acts as a robust support level, likely to be bought if the correction worsens. FORECAST EUR/USD continues to be bullish provided the pair remains above critical technical support levels. The steepening slope of the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining above the 70 level indicate solid underlying buying demand. If the pair picks up momentum, the first target would be the psychological resistance at 1.1400, and a clear break above this level could

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Put Around 1.1350 as Market Prepares for ECB Interest Rate Decision and Fed Inflation War

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  • April 15, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair stays put around the 1.1350 level as the US Dollar tries to regain stability as stagflation fears increase and as market sentiment turns defensive. Market participants are watching remarks from Federal Reserve officials, such as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who noted the long way that will have to go to achieve the central bank’s 2% inflation target — a sign that rate decreases will not come as early as some had anticipated. In the meantime, everyone is focused on the next policy meeting of the European Central Bank, when a widely anticipated 25 basis point reduction in interest rates might determine the Euro’s short-term direction. Uncertainty over global trade tensions and changing projections by major financial institutions such as Deutsche Bank also contribute to the confusion, leaving market participants vigilant for any hints about the future course of monetary policy on both the Atlantic and other sides. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting, and they are looking for forward guidance on the future of monetary easing. • Federal Reserve officials, particularly Raphael Bostic, indicate that rate cuts might take a bit longer as the US central bank stays loyal to its 2% inflation target. • Market participants look for the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey for information on credit conditions, which may have implications for both the rate decision and the ECB’s economic outlook. • Increased trade uncertainty and possible US tariff changes remain weighing on market sentiment, providing near-term support for the Euro with recession fears in the US. With the EUR/USD pair trading around the 1.1350 mark, market attention turns to a number of key drivers that may decide its next direction. The European Central Bank is to make its highly anticipated policy rate decision on Thursday, with traders broadly factoring in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, while also looking for any guidance on future easing cycles. Across the Atlantic, the Federal Reserve’s measured approach to inflation — in the wake of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments — indicates that the journey towards U.S. rate cuts could be slower than anticipated. The publication of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey will also provide new clues on the state of credit in the Eurozone. At the same time, persistent global trade tensions and doubts over possible U.S. tariff shifts remain to influence investor mood, offering risk and support to the Euro in the short term. The EUR/USD pair remains anchored around 1.1350 as markets look for the ECB’s anticipated 25 basis point rate cut and more hints on monetary policy. The US Dollar, meanwhile, looks to stabilize as Fed officials remain cautious about inflation and ongoing global trade tensions. Investors look for major data and central bank comments to determine the next move. •  EUR/USD hovers around 1.1350 as the pair remains range-bound with risky market sentiment. •  The US Dollar tries to firm up as stagflation fears reemerge and dampen global risk appetite. •  Federal Reserve’s Bostic indicates a long way to go before reaching the 2% inflation goal, dashing hopes for imminent rate cuts. •  ECB to cut the rate by 25 basis points at its policy meet on Thursday, keeping the Euro in limelight. •  Deutsche Bank revises rate cut prediction for Fed, anticipating first cut in Dec 2025, two additional cuts in early 2026. •  The ECB’s Bank Lending Survey (BLS) is under the spotlight for information regarding credit conditions and the health of the Eurozone economy. • Global trade tensions and recessionary concerns continue to underpin the Euro and place pressure on the US Dollar’s rebound. The EUR/USD currency pair remains firm as market participants look towards this week’s key central bank news and economic releases. The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next policy meeting, a move designed to underpin growth throughout the Eurozone. Meanwhile, market players are monitoring the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey, which will offer useful insight into how credit conditions are influencing the region’s overall financial well-being. EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the US Dollar is holding its ground as traders digest recent comments from Federal Reserve officials. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s statement underlined that the path to bringing inflation back to the 2% target remains challenging, hinting that US rate cuts may not arrive as soon as previously expected. In addition to central bank indications, persistent global trade tensions and policy uncertainty are also exercising considerable influence over investor sentiment, with markets pricing in possible risks to the global economy in the coming months. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1350 level, hinting at consolidation as the pair awaits strong directional signals. The latest price action suggests indecision surrounding major levels of resistance and support, pointing to the fact that traders wait for new sparks from central bank policies or fresh economic data to push through resolute moves. A continued penetration of near-term resistance may be enough to establish further room on the upside, but a inability to maintain present support levels would risk exposing the pair to greater bear pressure short-term. FORECAST If the European Central Bank’s forthcoming policy announcement and economic commentary succeed in finding an even keel — loosening but remaining upbeat on the recovery of the Eurozone — then the EUR/USD pair might strengthen in the near term. Surprise improvements in Eurozone economic statistics or hints at weakening US inflation might similarly prop up the Euro, sending the pair higher to resistance levels as risk appetite is regained by investors. On the flip side, if the rate cut by the ECB is coupled with a more dovish tone or the US Dollar gains new strength on the back of improved economic indicators or diminishing recession fears, EUR/USD could see fresh selling pressures. Also, ongoing global trade tensions and any rise in geopolitical tensions would tempt investors to take refuge in the

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Outlook: New Zealand Dollar Stabilises, To Consolidate Between 0.5540 and 0.5760 – UOB Group

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  • April 10, 2025
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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stabilised against the US Dollar (USD), FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia of UOB Group report. After a brief fall to 0.5485, the NZD rallied sharply, ending stronger at 0.5650—a strong intraday gain. This move, particularly the break above the strong resistance level of 0.5650, suggests that the recent downtrend in NZD might have ended. Short term, the NZD/USD pair will test 0.5695, with consolidation expected in the wider range of 0.5540 to 0.5760. KEY LOOKOUTS •  NZD/USD may probe the 0.5695 level in the near term, as long as it remains above minor support at 0.5620 and key support at 0.5580. •  Although upside momentum is increasing, the major resistance level at 0.5760 is unlikely to be tested in the near term. •  The steep reversal and break above 0.5650 signal that recent NZD weakness has most probably stabilised and the outlook has turned from bearish to neutral. •  In the next 1–3 weeks, NZD/USD should consolidate between the 0.5540–0.5760 levels as market sentiment comes back into equilibrium. NZD/USD has turned as recent price action indicates that New Zealand Dollar weakness has stabilized. After dipping to 0.5485, the pair snapped back strongly and cleared the major resistance level at 0.5650, marking the end of the bear trend. The NZD is now expected by UOB Group analysts to range in a clear area of 0.5540 to 0.5760 in the short term. A 0.5695 test is on the cards if the currency remains above 0.5580, though a break through key resistance at 0.5760 is not expected in the short term. The New Zealand Dollar has probably settled versus the US Dollar, with NZD/USD likely to trade in the 0.5540-0.5760 range. A near-term 0.5695 test is on the cards if support at 0.5580 is maintained, though a break above 0.5760 is still not expected just yet. • The recent NZD/USD rebound indicates the earlier weakness is most likely stabilised. • NZD rose from the low point of 0.5485 to close strongly higher at 0.5650, rising 2.07% in a day. • The pair broke above strong resistance point of 0.5650, which is indicative of a change in short-term momentum. • NZD/USD can test 0.5695 if it holds above 0.5580. • Important support points to observe are at 0.5580 and 0.5620. • NZD/USD is likely to consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760 over the next few days and weeks. • In spite of recent strength, the key resistance at 0.5760 is unlikely to be broken in the near future. The New Zealand Dollar seems to have returned to stability following a volatile period, indicating a more stable phase in its performance. This is a welcome relief for traders and market observers who have tracked the currency’s recent fluctuations. Analysts at UOB Group believe that the current market sentiment regarding NZD has moved from bearish to neutral, with indications favoring a consolidation phase instead of sustained volatility. NZD/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView This change in tone implies that the wider market will now turn attention to other drivers such as economic data releases, global risk appetite, and central bank commentary. The removal of pressure on the NZD creates room for investors to reconsider their strategy and projections without the initial pressure of wild volatility. On balance, the environment is more neutral, and the currency is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range over the coming weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has made a strong recovery after it temporarily touched 0.5485, crossing above the significant resistance level at 0.5650. Such a breakout points to a possible change in momentum, meaning that the recent downtrend is likely over. The pair would now consolidate between 0.5540 and 0.5760, with weak support at 0.5580 and 0.5620. A short-term test of 0.5695 is conceivable if the levels of support are maintained, but the key resistance of 0.5760 will not be tested unless greater bullish momentum arises. FORECAST NZD/USD may continue to push higher moderately, particularly if it can find support just above 0.5580. The pair would move towards the next target of 0.5695 with the help of better market sentiment and technical support. With sustained buying interest, the higher end of the prevailing consolidation range at 0.5760 could be in view, although it should serve as a robust resistance in the short term. On the flip side, if NZD/USD fails to hold above 0.5580, it might unleash fresh selling pressure. Breaking below this level can drive the pair towards 0.5540, the lower boundary of the anticipated consolidation zone. Although the prior low of 0.5485 holds firm for the time being, any persistent weakness can re-open the way towards the crucial support level at 0.5450, which was recently a key level to monitor.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Remains Steady Around 0.8850 as Dollar Recovers and Swiss Franc Drops on Better Risk Mood

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  • March 24, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair remains steady around the 0.8850 level, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar on the back of increasing Treasury yields and a dovish Federal Reserve policy. In spite of ongoing fears of a slowdown in the US economy, the greenback is showing resilience in anticipation of the important S&P Global PMI release. At the same time, the Swiss Franc is under pressure downwards with improving global risk appetite and recent policy relaxation by the Swiss National Bank, which cut its key interest rate to 0.25%. Geopolitical events and changing trade policies also affect market forces, keeping investors’ eyes on the horizon for forthcoming economic indicators. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders closely observe the initial US PMI figures for March, which would provide new information on the health of the US economy and have an impact on the direction of the USD. • Increasing yields on the 2-year and 10-year US bonds are driving the Dollar’s rebound — increased movements in yields will dictate short-term USD/CHF momentum. • Since the SNB rate cut to 0.25%, markets are closely looking at signs or signals regarding future direction of monetary policy and inflation in Switzerland. • Relief on easing geopolitical tensions and changes to US trade policy are lowering demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc — ongoing change in risk appetite could lead to further CHF weakness. The release of the US S&P Global PMI data for March later today will be key in determining the health of the US economy and influencing market sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. On top of this, increasing US Treasury yields remain supportive of the US Dollar, with any further movement set to affect the pair. Conversely, the recent 0.25% rate cut by the Swiss National Bank has put pressure on the Swiss Franc, with markets anticipating any policy guidance. In the meanwhile, a better global risk environment and deviously softening geopolitical tensions are suppressing demand for defensive currencies such as the CHF, possibly setting the stage for further USD/CHF gains. Traders look to the US S&P Global PMI, which may give new direction to USD/CHF. Higher US Treasury yields continue to underpin the Dollar, while the Swiss Franc is pressured after the SNB rate cut and better global risk appetite. • USD/CHF is trading around 0.8850, underpinned by a recovery in the US Dollar and higher Treasury yields. • US Dollar strengthens as market mood improves in spite of fears of an impending economic slowdown. • US S&P Global PMI for March is eagerly awaited and could shape further USD action. • Fed continues to have a hawkish stance, with Chair Powell reiterating strong labor markets and ongoing inflation threats. • Swiss Franc loses ground as risk appetite increases, diminishing demand for traditional safe-haven currencies. • Swiss National Bank lowered rates to 0.25%, a new low since September 2022, citing low inflation. • Geopolitical tensions reduce, and changing US trade policies further dampen CHF strength. The USD/CHF currency pair remains influenced by overall economic and geopolitical trends. The US Dollar remains robust as market optimism increases based on encouraging Federal Reserve signals and growing optimism over the US economy. Recent remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a solid labor market and consistent movement toward inflation goals, which has bolstered investor confidence. Meanwhile, the next US economic data, especially the S&P Global PMI, will provide additional information on economic conditions and influence market expectations. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the Swiss Franc is under pressure as a result of better global risk appetite and recent policy moves by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB interest rate cut indicates its attempt to boost domestic economic activity in the face of low inflation. Also, softening geopolitical tensions and changing trade strategies are decreasing the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Franc. As the world economic outlook improves, the demand for currencies such as the USD can be expected to increase further, influencing the trend of USD/CHF in the near future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF remains bullish-biased as the pair consolidates above important support levels, reflecting consistent buying interest. The current upward momentum indicates that buyers are still in charge, with the pair holding firm around the 0.8850 region. If the price is able to hold above this support, then it could potentially set the stage for further bullish movement in the near future. Traders would need to look out for levels of resistance coming up ahead as well as observe any indication of reversal or consolidation that would change short-term sentiment in the markets. FORECAST  USD/CHF may witness additional gains, particularly if future US economic releases like the PMI reports are stronger than anticipated. Higher US Treasury yields and persistent Federal Reserve hawkishness might also continue to buoy the US Dollar in the near future. Increased investor optimism and lower Swiss Franc safe-haven demand might also contribute to the upward pressure, moving the pair towards higher resistance levels in the near future. On the other hand, if any disappointing economic data from the US or rising fears of any slowdown are indicated, the Dollar can be pushed down and force a pullback in USD/CHF. Moreover, in case the overall risk sentiment falters in the face of some unforeseen geopolitical events, the demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc can increase. A more robust CHF, in conjunction with uncertainty in the markets or a dovish change in Fed expectations, might result in a short-term correction or downward pressure on the pair.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Gains Momentum Above 1.0800 As Dollar Weakens

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  • March 24, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is gaining strength once again above the 1.0800 level, driven by bullish technicals and a weakening US dollar. The pair has rallied in the early Asian trading session, spurred by fears of an economic slowdown in the US under President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Technically, the bullish bias is still in place as the price stays above the 100-day EMA, with the RSI continuing to indicate upward momentum. Important resistance is at 1.0955, with a possible move towards psychological level 1.1000, while short-term support is at 1.0775. Investors now look out for important PMI releases from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US for further direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD continues to be bullish as long as it holds above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average at the current vicinity of the 1.0600–1.0605 region. • 14-day RSI sitting above 59 reiterates high bullish pressure, with possible scope for higher prices. • Initial resistance comes at 1.0955 (March 18 high), then possibly challenging the 1.1000 psychological mark and 1.1111 Bollinger Band top level. • Traders will need to look out for Eurozone, German, and US PMI reports for March, which will likely be instrumental catalysts for the next move. Traders need to keep a close eye on significant technical and fundamental pointers while EUR/USD continues to trade in a bullish manner above the 100-day EMA. The 14-day RSI continues to hold strong near 59, reflecting continuous upward momentum in the near term. On the positive side, the initial resistance is present at 1.0955, followed by the psychological 1.1000 level and the top of the Bollinger Band at 1.1111. On the negative side, the first support comes at 1.0775, with the key support level at 1.0600–1.0605. Apart from this, future releases of PMI data for the Eurozone, Germany, and the US have the potential to be key market drivers, dictating the pair’s next trend direction. EUR/USD remains in a bullish tone above the 100-day EMA, with good RSI momentum. Major resistance is at 1.0955 and 1.1000, while support is at 1.0775. Traders look to the next Eurozone and US PMI releases for new directional signals. • EUR/USD bounces back above 1.0800, demonstrating strength in the early Asian session and ending a three-day losing streak. • The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) supports bullish momentum and maintains the overall technical scenario upbeat. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains north of the midline at approximately 59.35, which reflects ongoing bullish inclination. • The immediate resistance markers to focus on are 1.0955 (March 18 high) and the psychological level of 1.1000, with deeper targets towards 1.1111. • The initial support is at 1.0775, and the critical support area is at 1.0600–1.0605 (100-day EMA and round figure area). • Underlying pressure on the US dollar continues as investors worry about economic slowdown due to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. • Major economic event risk in the near term includes PMI readings from the Eurozone, Germany, and the US, which may trigger the next significant move in the pair. The EUR/USD currency pair has continued to exhibit new strength as it rises higher in Monday’s Asian session, attributing to positive sentiment across the Eurozone. The recovery follows increasing fears of a possible US economic slowdown, sparked by factors that have begun to put pressure on the US dollar. Market participants are monitoring closely the international macroeconomic climate, especially the effect of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies that have created uncertainty among investors. This change in sentiment has made way for a favorable backdrop for the euro to pick up speed at the beginning of the week. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Looking forward, traders are focusing their attention on key economic data releases, most notably preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) numbers for the Eurozone, Germany, and the US. These readings will provide new clues as to the vitality of business activity in these pivotal regions and could have an influence on investors’ expectations. With world markets still sensitive to economic data and policy cues, forthcoming data will be key in determining the general outlook for the EUR/USD pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is bullish as it resists below key moving averages, indicating underlying strength in the trend. The duo’s position above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) reflects persistent bullish sentiment, and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the midline, reflecting ongoing upward momentum. If the buying interest continues, the pair can slowly move towards higher resistance levels, and any downward movement will likely find support around recent lows. Overall, the technical setup favors a bullish bias in the near term. FORECAST EUR/USD will probable challenge the crucial resistance levels in the upcoming sessions. The initial level of resistance seems to be around the 1.0955 level, a recent high. A successful advance above this zone can set the stage for a move towards the psychological level of 1.1000. Additional gains here can push the pair towards 1.1111, the Bollinger Band upper boundary, indicating prolonged bullish outlook. Encouraging economic news from the Eurozone or additional US dollar weakness may serve as triggers for this move higher. Conversely, if selling mount, the initial level to look for is 1.0775, which was a recent low and is serving as immediate support. A decline below this level could prompt additional downturns towards the key support area of 1.0605–1.0600, which also coincides with the 100-day EMA. A prolonged dip below this zone may change the market mood and leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, the next target being about 1.0418. More robust than anticipated US economic numbers or dovish policy announcements might boost the bearish pressure.

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