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USD/CAD Remains Flat Below 1.4350 On Fed Speculation and Canadian Politics

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  • March 24, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair begins the week cautiously trading just below the mid-1.4300s as conflicting market signals keep traders and investors nervous. While hopes of an eventual Fed rate cut dampen the US Dollar, lower Crude Oil prices and political instability in Canada—after Prime Minister Mark Carney demanded a snap election—cap the Canadian Dollar’s appreciation. In spite of intraday declines, the pair is still within last week’s range, indicating a lack of direction. With US PMI data and FOMC member speeches coming up, along with volatile oil prices, traders are waiting for new signals to decide the next direction in USD/CAD. KEY LOOKOUTS • Flash PMI prints and comments from prominent Federal Reserve members may steer short-term market sentiment and USD direction. • Short bets on an impending Fed rate-cut cycle are still a dominant force for USD movements and will keep influencing the trend in USD/CAD. • The surprise call for a snap election by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney injects uncertainty and could cap any sharp rise in the Canadian Dollar. • As a commodity-based currency, the CAD is still vulnerable to price movements in crude oil, so oil market fundamentals are an essential factor to monitor. Several factors affecting the USD/CAD in the short term need to be monitored closely by traders. Market interest will continue to be on US economic releases, specifically the flash PMI prints and Fed official speeches, which might provide new insights into the central bank’s monetary policy direction. Speculation over a possible Fed rate cut continues to pressure the US Dollar, while political tension in Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s surprise election call might cap Canadian Dollar gains. Also, crude oil price volatility—considering CAD’s high correlation with oil—will be instrumental in determining the pair’s direction. Major areas of focus are future US PMI releases and FOMC speeches, which may influence USD sentiment. Speculation in the market regarding Fed rate cuts and Canada’s surprise election announcement may also impact USD/CAD movement. Also, oil price volatility is still important for the Loonie’s direction. • USD/CAD trades flat below the mid-1.4300s on mixed market signals. • Expectations of a Fed rate cut continue to bear down on the US Dollar. • Dovish Crude Oil prices constrain the Canadian Dollar’s rise. • Political risk increases with Canada’s PM announcing a snap election on April 28. • The market mood remains risk-averse with no definite directional bias. • The market waits for US flash PMI numbers and FOMC member speeches for new indications. • Price volatility in oil will continue to be a primary driver of USD/CAD direction. The USD/CAD pair is stable to start the new week, guided by a combination of economic and political events. Market participants closely monitor the situation unfolding in the US and Canada. On one side, the US Dollar is under pressure as there are growing hopes that the Federal Reserve might have rate cuts in the near term in view of economic slowdown concerns. On the other side, Canada’s political scenario has been given a fresh twist with Prime Minister Mark Carney declaring an unexpected election, raising doubts over future policy and investor sentiment towards the Canadian Dollar. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Simultaneously, sentiment across broader markets is subdued as traders consider global economic indicators and geopolitical tensions. The Canadian Dollar, commonly sensitive to commodity prices, is also responding to oil price movements, which significantly determine its relative strength. In the near term, traders are likely to monitor closely the release of US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials, which may provide more insight into the policy direction and its implications for currency movements. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD pair is range-bound, with prices staying just below the mid-1.4300s, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum. The pair has been able to bounce back from initial Asian session lows around 1.4325 but still trades in the wider range set last Friday. In spite of multiple attempts, the pair has failed to break convincingly above the 1.4400 resistance level, which suggests that buyers are reluctant without a definite bullish catalyst. On the negative side, support at the moment is around the 1.4300 level, and a persistent dip below this may draw in new selling interest. Until a break on either side happens, the pair will remain in this tight range, waiting for new impetus from economic news or political events. FORECAST Should market sentiment turn bullish for the US Dollar, perhaps in response to better-than-anticipated US economic news or more aggressive Federal Reserve rhetoric, USD/CAD may try to challenge the 1.4400 resistance level once again. A clear breakout above it may allow for additional upside, particularly if political uncertainty continues to pressure the Canadian Dollar. Also, if the price of oil continues to slide, it will add pressure to the Loonie, thereby supporting the trend in the USD/CAD to the upside. Conversely, in the event of Fed rate cut hopes gaining traction or if disappointing US data come out in the future, the US Dollar is likely to face fresh selling interest, causing USD/CAD to move lower. A drop below the 1.4300 support area may initiate additional weakness towards the 1.4260 or even 1.4200 levels. In addition, any improvement in Canada’s political scenario or a good bounce in crude oil prices might provide support to the Canadian Dollar, raising the risk of decline for the USD/CAD currency pair.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Firm Near Multi-Month Highs Amid Fed-BoE Policy Divergence and USD Caution

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  • March 21, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair remains firm near multi-month highs around the mid-1.2900s, resolute in the face of a modest appreciation in the US Dollar. Though the Greenback does get some help from safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy, the contrasting monetary policy direction between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England supports the British Pound. As the Fed is likely to reduce rates several times this year and the BoE is hinting at a more dovish stance, the broad inclination for GBP/USD is skewed to the higher side. Lacking any significant economic data releases, price action will probably remain range-bound, although any retracement may offer buying chances, leaving the pair on course to record a third straight weekly gain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Still holding firm above the mid-1.2900s despite intraday volatility, the pair remains near the multi-month high at over 1.3000 recorded on Thursday. • The Bank of England’s dovish approach to rate cuts is in contrast to the Fed’s expected easing, providing sustained support to the Pound. • The Greenback makes minor gains from multi-month lows on the back of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over trade tariffs, but upside is still capped. • Without any significant economic releases on Friday, GBP/USD is likely to be guided by USD dynamics and overall market sentiment, leaving the pair skewed to the upside. The GBP/USD pair remains stuck close to multi-month highs, stabilizing above the 1.2950 mark and within touching distance of the psychological level of 1.3000 touched on Thursday. The action of the pair is still heavily dictated by varying monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has stuck to its rate cut forecast for 2025 and upgraded its inflation forecast, the BoE has been more conservative, indicating reduced rate cuts in the future. This policy divergence supports the British Pound, although a modest rebound in the US Dollar — fueled by geopolitical tensions and trade tariff uncertainty — limits the upside. With minimal economic data on the calendar, the emphasis is on general market sentiment and USD dynamics, which maintains the path of least resistance slightly favorable for the bulls. GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2950, within striking distance of the multi-month high around 1.3000 in the face of diverging Fed-BoE policy expectations. Although a marginal USD recovery caps upside, the Pound finds support in bets for delayed BoE rate cuts. Lacking in major data releases, USD motion and sentiment will shape short-term direction. • GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2950, remaining near the multi-month high breached above 1.3000 yesterday. • Failure of distinct intraday direction, with the pair ranging narrowly in and about the 1.2960 area in the Asian session. • Limited USD reversal from multi-month lows serves as short-term cap on additional GBP/USD upside. • Fed leaves rate cut forecasts in 2025 unchanged, but inflation fears and uncertainty on trade tariffs provide support to the US Dollar. • BoE indicates a reduced rate cut pace, providing relative strength to the British Pound in the face of differing monetary policies. • No significant economic data releases from the UK or US on Friday, maintaining attention on general sentiment and USD dynamics. • GBP/USD set for a third straight weekly gain, with any pullbacks expected to be viewed as buying opportunities by traders. The GBP/USD currency pair remains a mirror of the general macroeconomic climate influenced by divergent central bank policy and sentiment globally. The Bank of England’s conservative approach to rate cuts, coupled with its revision of inflation expectations higher, indicates a more hawkish stance relative to other major central banks. This has given the British Pound a sense of underlying support, particularly as the market readjusts around monetary easing timelines. Conversely, the Federal Reserve’s consistent prediction of rate cuts for 2025, supported by increasing US trade uncertainty and inflation worries, introduces a degree of complication into the wider outlook. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Moreover, the lack of significant economic data releases has led the market to focus more on sentiment-driven influences and policy divergence themes. Investors are also carefully observing the international geopolitical environment, particularly possible trade policy shifts in the US, which will impact currency markets more broadly. Under such conditions, investor interest is focused on how central banks react to inflation trends and economic events in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains stuck in a consolidative range following a recent probe of the pivotal psychological resistance at the 1.3000 level. The pair remains supported above the 1.2950 level, reflecting underlying bulls, with buying interest evident on minor declines. A break and hold above 1.3000 would make way for more upside in the near term, while any retracement might encounter initial support near the 1.2900-1.2920 range. The broader direction is still positive as long as the pair is above key moving averages and has higher lows on the chart. FORECAST As long as bullish sentiment prevails and the Pound is upheld by the Bank of England’s relatively hawkish policy, GBP/USD may target a firm breakout above the psychological 1.3000 level. A continued break above this hurdle could initiate new buying interest, driving the pair towards the next resistance levels of 1.3050 and 1.3100 in the near term. Favorable UK economic news over the next few weeks or any indication of a delay in the Fed’s rate-cut schedule could further boost the upside momentum. Conversely, if the US Dollar strengthens further on safe-haven demand or better-than-expected US data, then GBP/USD can face pressure. A break below the 1.2950 support level may result in a correction lower with the next significant support at 1.2900 followed by 1.2840. Any dovish hint from the BoE or change in global risk appetite may boost downhill movement and leave bulls on the defensive in the near term.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Rallies Back Over 1.4300 Ahead of Fed Rate Decision as Dollar Reverses Slightly and Oil Prices Lose Ground

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  • March 19, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair has mounted a rebound from its two-week low of 1.4260, rising back above the 1.4300 mark as market participants look forward to the much-awaited Federal Reserve policy meeting decision. A small recovery in the US Dollar from multi-month lows, together with softer crude oil prices, has given the pair support for the second day in a row. Gains are still capped, however, with investors holding back ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision and economic forecasts, as well as closely monitoring Chair Jerome Powell’s rhetoric for guidance on the coming rate-cut direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market participants will be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s rate move and economic forecast, paying specific attention to any hints regarding the timing and rhythm of impending rate cuts. • The direction of the USD after the meeting will be important in deciding on the next move of USD/CAD, particularly if Powell sounds more dovish or hawkish than anticipated. • Being an oil-linked currency, the Canadian Dollar is still vulnerable to the movements in oil prices. Any additional weakness in crude oil may still drag the Loonie. • Rising tensions in the Middle East may have an impact on oil supply projections and risk appetite, which could in turn affect oil prices and safe-haven demand for the USD. With the USD/CAD currency pair trading just above the 1.4300 level, market attention continues to be squarely on the next Federal Reserve policy announcement, which is set to give the US Dollar new guidance. Traders will be keenly listening to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the revised economic forecasts for hints on the central bank’s future rate-cut trajectory. In the meantime, any substantial move in crude oil prices would impact the Canadian Dollar, as it strongly correlates with oil. Further, tensions in the Middle East are also a possible risk factor that can affect market sentiment and commodity prices, thus impacting the near-term USD/CAD course. USD/CAD remains above 1.4300 prior to the Fed policy announcement, helped by a small US Dollar recovery and lower oil prices. Market focus now centers around Jerome Powell’s remarks for insights into upcoming rate cuts, with geopolitical tensions and oil price actions continuing as main driving factors. • USD/CAD recovers above 1.4300 from a two-week low just below 1.4260. • Small US Dollar recovery from multi-month lows helps the pair. • Traders stay on guard in anticipation of the pivotal Federal Reserve policy announcement. • Fed likely to leave rates steady; attention turns to economic projections and Powell’s comments. • Impending rate-cut indications from the Fed may have a profound impact on USD direction. • Weakening crude oil prices deter the Canadian Dollar, facilitating USD/CAD gains. • Middle East geopolitical tensions may affect oil prices and risk mood, which can impact the pair. The USD/CAD currency pair is in the limelight as markets globally await the outcome of the closely watched Federal Reserve policy meeting. As no interest-rate change is anticipated, investors are following keenly the Fed’s revised economic forecast and comments from Chair Jerome Powell. These observations will prove to be pivotal in determining the central bank’s attitude towards upcoming monetary policy, especially in context to future interest rate reductions later this year. The result of this meeting is expected to influence overall market sentiment and direct currency movements in the subsequent sessions. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView While meanwhile, wider economic conditions still influence the USD/CAD forecast. Oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian economy, have been revealing their volatility, providing another source of uncertainty. Furthermore, heightened tensions in the Middle East are closely watched, as they have the potential to affect global energy markets and investor mood. Since there are more than one factor involved, market players are walking on eggshells, waiting for more definitive indications before making firm actions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD has been able to bounce from the recent support level around 1.4260, showing buying interest at lower levels. The pair recovering above the 1.4300 level shows a possible short-term bullish tilt, although the momentum is moderate. Traders will be monitoring a sustained move above this level to confirm further upside potential. On the negative side, if the pair cannot remain above 1.4300, it will go back to the recent support zone, whereas resistance levels at 1.4350 and 1.4380 may prove to be obstacles for any potential rise. FORECAST In case the Federal Reserve retains a dovish tone and avoids any indication of near-term rate cuts, the US Dollar is likely to move even higher, possibly taking USD/CAD up. A strong push through the 1.4300 level can create space for the pair to challenge the subsequent resistance levels at 1.4350 and 1.4380. Further deterioration in crude oil prices can also fuel upside movement in the pair, as the Canadian Dollar remains highly sensitive to movements in the oil market. An aggressive bullish break can even lead to a run-up to the 1.4400 area in the short term. Conversely, if the Fed indicates a dovish turn or suggests rate cuts earlier than anticipated, the US Dollar can come under fresh pressure, and that would initiate a decline in USD/CAD. A breakdown below the 1.4260 support could speed up selling pressure, taking the pair down to 1.4220 or even lower. Furthermore, any sudden surge in crude oil prices or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions would bolster the Canadian Dollar, leading to further losses for the pair.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Below 1.0950 as Fed Decision Approaches Amid Strength in Dollar and Eurozone Trends

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  • March 19, 2025
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The EUR/USD crossed below the level of 1.0950 during Wednesday morning’s Asian trading, staying at around 1.0935 as market participants take a guarded approach ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate determination. The U.S. Dollar received mild lift from more solid industrial production, contributing to traders’ expectation amid the Fed’s revised rate guidance and economic report. Although the central bank is expected to leave interest rates on hold, the press conference and dot-plot that accompany it could provide key policy guidance. Separately, a large spending budget passed by Germany’s parliament could support the Euro, indicating increased investment activity in the Eurozone’s largest economy. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets watch for the Fed’s rate move and economic forecasts, which will determine the tone of USD movement going forward. • Robust US industrial production figures support the Dollar; additional strength could put pressure on EUR/USD below significant support levels. • Bundestag approval of a significant spending increase could underpin the Euro and restore investor confidence in the Eurozone economy. • Traders are cautious ahead of Fed commentary; increased volatility anticipated after the decision, affecting short-term EUR/USD direction. As the EUR/USD currency pair declines below 1.0950 in anticipation of the highly expected Federal Reserve interest rate decision, market players are keenly observing major events that may influence the near-term direction. The US Dollar has strengthened after positive industrial production figures, increasing hopes for a more aggressive Fed policy. Investors will closely monitor the Fed’s revised economic forecasts and the dot-plot, which may provide key information on the rate path ahead. In the meantime, Germany’s approval of a huge spending budget brings a possible Euro boost, signaling fresh fiscal support for the Eurozone’s biggest economy. Overall, sentiment is still wary, with volatility set to spike after the Fed announcement. EUR/USD falls below 1.0950 as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to make its interest rate decision and revise its economic forecasts. The stronger US Dollar and Germany’s recently approved budget plan are significant drivers of the pair’s movement. Volatility is likely to increase after the Fed announcement. • EUR/USD falls to about 1.0935 during Wednesday’s Asian session, falling below the 1.0950 mark. • Investors stay on guard in anticipation of the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement and economic forecasts later today. • The Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged, but the dot-plot and press conference can give hints of future policy directions. • US Dollar appreciates slight strength as underpinned by better-than-expected US industrial production data for February (+0.7% MoM). • Germany’s parliament sanctioned a big spending spree, a sign of possible economic recovery in the Eurozone’s biggest economy. • Market sentiment remains divided, with investors in wait-and-watch mode following the Fed announcement. • Greater volatility anticipated in EUR/USD in the wake of the Fed verdict and reports on inflation projections. The foreign exchange market is in wait-and-watch mode with international investors awaiting the coming interest rate verdict of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Though the central bank is mostly expected to leave interest rates as they are, everyone is looking forward to the press conference and new economic projections for clues on the course of future monetary policy. The latest release of robust industrial production numbers in the U.S. has contributed to the expectation, signaling strength in the economy and adding to further interest in the central bank’s inflation and growth outlook. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, European developments have ushered in a tide of optimism, as Germany’s parliament passed a big-ticket spending plan designed to spur investment. The action is likely to underpin economic recovery efforts in the Eurozone’s biggest economy and potentially bolster market confidence in the region’s growth prospects. With traders waiting on the sidelines for key policy signals, the overall market tone is set by the interplay between U.S. economic vigor and Europe’s revived fiscal efforts. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is picking up signs of mild weakness following its fall below the 1.0950 level, reflecting cautious market sentiment pre-Fed decision. The pair is now trading close to 1.0935, with near-term support at the 1.0900 psychological level. A break through this region may pave the way for further bear pressure. On the higher side, resistance is expected to be encountered in the 1.0975–1.1000 area, where sellers are likely to re-enter. Overall, the price action indicates a consolidation period, with investors waiting for a clear direction of breakout after major economic indicators from the U.S. Federal Reserve. FORECAST If the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its policy statement and economic forecasts neutral or dovish, it may cap further gains in the U.S. Dollar. In this context, the Euro could find footing, particularly with Germany’s freshly approved budget plan set to fuel economic sentiment in the Eurozone. Better fiscal prospects in Europe could provide a supportive environment for the EUR/USD pair to move higher if global risk appetite also improves. Conversely, if the Fed hints at a more aggressive policy—i.e., the likelihood of rate hikes or a less aggressive sequence of easing—then the U.S. Dollar will likely pick up even more steam. This will potentially put downward pressure on the Euro, sending EUR/USD lower over the short run. Also, if future Eurozone data does not indicate a robust recovery in spite of Germany’s budget stimulus, market faith in the Euro will further deteriorate, exacerbating the downside risk.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Remains Dovish Before BoJ Speech Despite Weaker Domestic Figures and USD Recuperation

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  • March 19, 2025
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The Japanese Yen continues to dip after the Bank of Japan announced that it maintained interest rates levels and weaker than anticipated domestic economic data, which include weak machinery orders and unfavorable business sentiment. Although Japan’s trade balance showed improvement and wage growth prospects remain strong, investors remain cautious ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech for clues on future monetary policy moves. Meanwhile, a modest recovery in the US Dollar from a multi-month low has pushed USD/JPY above mid-149.00s, with technical indicators suggesting further upside potential. Yet, market players wait for significant cues from the BoJ as well as the next FOMC meeting before taking bold directional wagers. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market players wait for Ueda’s words for definite indications of future rate hikes and the central bank’s policy direction in the near future. • The 150.00 psychological level continues to be a crucial resistance; a consistent breakout would set off new bullish momentum towards 150.75–151.00 levels. • Deteriorating machinery orders and weakening business sentiment remain in focus for JPY, while trade balance has improved and wages have firmed up. • Attention turns towards the US Federal Reserve policy move, which could have a bearing on USD strength and overall USD/JPY direction. The Japanese Yen also remains on the weaker side as markets absorb the Bank of Japan’s move to leave interest rates unchanged and lower-than-anticipated domestic data such as disappointing machinery orders and falling business sentiment. Although a tighter trade balance and improving wage deals provide some respite to Japan’s economic prospects, investor sentiment continues to be risk-off ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech, where he is set to give a clue on when rate hikes can be expected. On the other hand, a slight rally in the US Dollar has driven USD/JPY past mid-149.00s, and technical readings are indicating possible additional upside if the pair successfully crosses the 150.00 resistance mark. All eyes now focus on the result of the FOMC meeting, which will potentially mold the path for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen continues to be weak in the face of weak domestic data and the BoJ’s continued rate stance. Now, the markets are waiting for Governor Ueda’s speech and the FOMC result for more direction. A breach above the level of 150.00 may ignite fresh upside in USD/JPY. • The Japanese Yen stays low following the Bank of Japan maintaining its interest rate unchanged at its latest policy meeting. • Sluggish domestic data, such as declining machinery orders and declining business sentiment, weighed on the JPY. • Japan’s trade balance turned positive, driven by robust exports and lower imports. • USD/JPY pushed beyond mid-149.00s on the back of a modest rebound in the US Dollar from a multi-month low. • The resistance in the USD/JPY technicals stands at 150.00, and a clear breakout would encourage additional upside into the 150.75–151.00 zone. • Highly expected are comments from BoJ Governor Ueda for a pointer towards additional interest rate hike cycles and a monetary policy cue. • Markets eagerly await the outcome of the FOMC meeting, as this will drive the next decision in the USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen is still under pressure after the Bank of Japan left its short-term interest rate target unchanged. The action was taken as concerns over Japan’s economic prospects have been increasing, with recent figures indicating a fall in machinery orders and a decline in business sentiment among manufacturers. While the trade balance of the country improved as exports grew and imports decreased, these encouraging trends were dampened by general economic uncertainty. The central bank also admitted that economic growth and inflation risks are still high, making investors hesitant to anticipate the timing of any subsequent policy changes. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, focus turns to BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s speech later this week, set to provide perspective on the direction of future bank policy. Other investors are paying close attention as well to what comes out of the two-day FOMC meeting in America, which would have implications on global financial markets and overall currency trends. In contrast to domestic woes, the news from Japan’s quarterly spring labor talks came as a welcome relief, with companies consenting to healthy wage increases for the third year in a row — something that could aid consumer consumption and push inflation higher in the months ahead incrementally. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY has evidenced renewed vigor after rebounding above the mid-149.00s, reflecting buying bias. The latest price action indicates that the buyers are taking over, particularly after a breakout above the important moving averages on the short-term charts. Nevertheless, the pair has a significant resistance level around the 150.00 psychological level, and a break above this level could lead to further upside. To the disadvantage, instant support exists in the proximity of 149.20–149.00, and breaking below that zone can reflect on the impending stall or change of trend to the current uptrend. Buyers and sellers are set to keep close watch at these levels in awaiting verification of the upcoming trend direction. FORECAST As long as the general market mood continues to lean toward the US Dollar and BoJ plays defensive, USD/JPY will quietly drift upward. A clean penetration above the all-important 150.00 psychological level would lay the groundwork for additional gains, with the possible target being in the 150.75–151.00 area in the short term. Upside momentum could be supported by solid US economic fundamentals and any hawkish undertones in the FOMC meeting. Additionally, positive wage growth in Japan could have inflationary ramifications, but with no policy changes indicated by the BoJ, the Yen would find it challenging to regain resilience. Alternatively, if BoJ Governor Ueda signals a tighter outlook or in case of any disappointing US economic data, USD/JPY may be on the downside. A breakout below the 149.00 level may mark a reversal of recent trend and send the currency back into correction. Additive weakness may see the pair decline towards the 148.20–148.00 region, and if mood turns sharply risk-averse,

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Resists Below 1.3000 as US Dollar Weakness and Central Bank Prudence Take Hold

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  • March 18, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair continues to resist below the 1.3000 level due to a weak US Dollar amidst growing economic risks and prudent central bank expectations. As the pair trades around 1.2970, bears seem to have limited room as the Greenback grapples with weak US retail sales reports and fresh trade tensions. Investors believe the Federal Reserve will leave policy unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, and similarly, the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates untouched on Thursday. These moves combined with the BoE’s recent reluctance to try and balance growth worries against inflation worries may support the Pound Sterling further in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets broadly expect the Fed to stick with its current interest rate policy, but any hint on future rate direction may influence USD sentiment. • The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention on dealing with inflation risks while facing low growth and revised expectations. • Subpar retail sales figures, Trump’s tariff warning, and escalating economic uncertainty are still dragging down the Greenback, constraining its recovery. • The pair is still supported around 1.2970, with minimal downside pressure. A breakout above 1.3000 may indicate additional bullish momentum if USD weakness continues. Traders are keenly observing major economic and policy events this week that may influence the direction of GBP/USD. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday is likely to keep the current stance, but any indication of future monetary policy may influence the US Dollar. In the same vein, the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged, marking a conservative stance against ongoing inflation and decelerating growth. In contrast, the US Dollar continues to struggle with softer-than-expected retail sales figures and escalating trade tensions, capping its potential for recovery. These combined factors collectively favor the Pound, with GBP/USD remaining firm around 1.2970 and targeting a possible breakout above the 1.3000 level. GBP/USD is stable around 1.2970 as the US Dollar falters with soft economic data and trade tensions. Investors look forward to major policy decisions by the Fed and Bank of England that might propel further action. A break above 1.3000 could be an indication of fresh bullish push for the pair. • GBP/USD hovers around 1.2970, backing off but staying strong below the pivotal 1.3000 level. • US Dollar is still susceptible to weakness with poor economic numbers and escalating trade tensions. • February US Retail Sales increased just 0.2%, falling short and sparking concerns over consumer spending. • Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates steady in Wednesday’s policy meeting. • US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 103.50 but remains exposed to losses. • Bank of England is also likely to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, underpinning GBP strength. • Pound Sterling can also be further supported by the BoE’s conservative approach in the face of inflation and growth worries. The GBP/USD currency pair is maintaining its ground as market attention turns to pivotal central bank announcements this week. Investors are monitoring closely the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, where there is no rate change expected, but the focus is still on the tone of the Fed on future economic conditions. Recent US data, specifically weaker retail sales numbers, has worried investors on the strength of consumer spending and the overall economic prospect. In addition, trade policy and global economic stability uncertainties are weighing on the optimism of investors and putting pressure on the US Doller. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling is being supported by hopes that the Bank of England will stick with its present interest rate policy when it meets later. The central bank is walking a tightrope between containing sticky inflation and responding to easing economic growth. While the UK economy also has its challenges, the prudent policy stance of the BoE is steadying sentiment towards the British Pound. As both central banks take a wait-and-watch stance, the overall market environment remains influenced by economic data and world events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is now consolidating just below the psychological 1.3000 level, with 1.2970 serving as the immediate support area. Any prolonged break above 1.3000 might make way for additional bullish follow-through, perhaps heading higher towards broader resistance levels. Conversely, any break beneath 1.2950 could see near-term selling pressure, but overall, the pair remains in a bullish inclination so long as it remains above key moving averages. Traders will be looking for price action at these levels to confirm the next direction. FORECAST If the GBP/USD currency pair is able to hold above the 1.3000 psychological level, it could open the way to more upside momentum. A clean break above this level could lead to buyers driving the pair to the next resistance areas around 1.3050 and 1.3100. Bulls around the Pound, backed by the Bank of England’s firm policy direction and the US Dollar’s weakness, may also continue to propel bullish strength. Any sign of dovishness from the Federal Reserve or further disappointing US economic data could also add more to upward pressure on the pair. To the downside, in the event that GBP/USD cannot resist below the 1.2950–1.2970 support zone, the pair might temporarily retreat. A fall below this level could trigger additional losses to 1.2900 or even 1.2850 in the near term. The US Dollar might regain momentum if the Fed turns more hawkish or if risk appetite declines in international markets. Moreover, any unexpected change in the Bank of England’s expectations or poor UK economic indicators may cap the rally potential and pull the Pound back.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Jumps Higher than 0.5750 as China’s Economic Data Increases Market Optimism and Weakening USD

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  • March 17, 2025
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The pair NZD/USD moved higher than the 0.5750 level, picking up strength for a second day in a row after the publication of strong economic data from China. Retail Sales in China increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, and Industrial Production grew by 5.9%, both showing enhanced economic activity and improving market optimism in the Asia-Pacific economy. Since China is still one of New Zealand’s most important trading partners, these encouraging signs supported the Kiwi. Further optimism was provided by China’s recently launched consumption stimulus plan. The US Dollar, on the other hand, lost strength as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted sharply, further supporting NZD/USD’s bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Greater-than-anticipated Retail Sales and Industrial Production in China increase NZD sentiment, supporting optimism in Asia-Pacific market dynamics. • A precipitous decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index presses the US Dollar, providing support to NZD/USD advances. • China’s special action plan to promote consumption, wages, and real estate sentiment favors regional currencies, including NZD over USD. • Weakness in New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index is a domestic signal, and if global sentiment reverses, this could restrict NZD’s rally. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to strengthen with the support of positive Chinese economic data and a soft US Dollar. China’s Retail Sales increased by 4.0% and Industrial Production grew 5.9% in January-February, which indicates good economic momentum and raises investor sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region. The New Zealand Dollar also gained from China’s new stimulus package that was created to boost domestic consumption, pay, as well as stabilize markets. On the other hand, the US Dollar remained on the back foot after a steep fall in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index to its weakest level since November 2022. In spite of a decline in New Zealand’s services sector, the favorable external environment remains in support of NZD/USD’s rise. NZD/USD climbs above 0.5750, led by robust Chinese economic data and a softer US Dollar. The pair’s upside is also supported by China’s new consumption stimulus plan. Even with domestic service sector softness, the pair continues to rally. • NZD/USD climbed above 0.5750, marking the second straight day of gains on improved sentiment. • China’s Retail Sales grew 4.0% YoY in January-February, from 3.7% in December, supporting regional currencies such as the NZD. • Chinese Industrial Production grew 5.9% YoY, better than expected, and indicating economic prowess. • China rolled out a special consumption stimulus plan, comprising wage increases and efforts to enhance household expenditure and stabilize core markets. • PSI in New Zealand fell to 49.1, indicating services sector contraction that may drag on domestic economic prospects. • US Dollar declined strongly, after a fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022. • The attention now shifts to US Retail Sales data that may drive the next direction for NZD/USD. China’s recent economic statistics have sent a wave of optimism into the market, particularly favoring the New Zealand Dollar. The increase in Retail Sales and Industrial Production between the months of January-February indicates firmer consumer spending and industrial performance, which supports China’s economic growth. Since China is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners, any good news in its economy will prove favorable to the New Zealand Dollar. In addition, China’s declaration of a special action plan to spur domestic consumption—via wage rises, support for household spending, and market stabilization efforts—has also boosted sentiment throughout the region. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, the US Dollar is under pressure from declining consumer confidence in the United States. The steep drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects increasing worry about the outlook for the US economy, and this is having an impact on investor sentiment. Although New Zealand’s own service sector has reported signs of slowing, overall market sentiment remains biased towards the Kiwi, owing primarily to superior external drivers. With global markets waiting closely for subsequent economic releases, the overall economic climate remains in the driver’s seat in dictating currency fluctuations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is displaying the signs of ongoing bullish strength following the break through the 0.5750 resistance level. The pair remains firm around 0.5760, reflecting buyer demand at higher prices. If the pair holds above this range, it may challenge the next resistance zone of 0.5785–0.5800. On the negative side, support is close to 0.5720, and then a stronger support area around 0.5680. A break below these could mean a loss of momentum. On the whole, the current price action indicates a positive sentiment with the pair remaining in a short-term bullish bias. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience further gains in the short term. Positive economic news from China and the stimulus packages to stimulate consumption are expected to continue supporting the New Zealand Dollar. A break above the 0.5760 level may pave the way towards the next resistance levels at 0.5785 and 0.5800. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair may even try to reach the 0.5820 level, particularly if future US economic data continues to be weak. On the other hand, any change in market mood or disappointing economic news from the rest of the world may initiate a pullback in NZD/USD. In case the pair is unable to stay above 0.5750, it might initially be supported around 0.5720. Breaking below this point might initiate a more serious correction towards 0.5680 or even 0.5650. Moreover, if New Zealand’s economic indicators in the domestic market continue to reflect weakness, it may cap the upside and risk a move down.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Grapples with Multi-Month Low Volatility in the Face of FTX Repayments and Market Volatility

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  • February 20, 2025
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Bitcoin price has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, with volatility reaching multi-month lows, raising the specter of potential liquidation cascades. The recent slide to $93,388 was precipitated by FTX repayments, as the bankrupt exchange started reimbursing clients with account balances below $50,000. A K33 Research report points out that trading volumes, yields, options premiums, and ETF flows have fallen to levels last witnessed prior to the US Presidential election, indicating a risk-averse market sentiment. As Bitcoin grapples with breaking out of its range, analysts caution that a clear move below $94,000 has the potential to drive prices to the psychological $90,000 level, while a breakout above $100,000 could propel a retest of its January highs. Traders are still undecided, with technical indicators reflecting consolidation and indecision in BTC’s direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong break below $94,000 may lead to a fall to $90,000, while a break above $100,000 might propel a bullish run. • Ongoing customer refunds, amounting to as much as $16.5 billion, may impact Bitcoin’s liquidity and sentiment in the weeks ahead. • Low volatility of BTC is a cause for concern of resultant cascades of liquidations, with speculators waiting for a trigger to a large price shift. • RSI at 42 and MACD convergence indicate consolidation, with speculators looking for a decisive directional breakout in the trend of Bitcoin’s prices. The price of Bitcoin is still in narrow consolidation at $94,000 to $100,000 levels, with volatility at multi-month lows, keeping speculators in the dark. The recent fall to $93,388 was prompted by FTX repayments as the exchange started to reimburse clients, impacting market liquidity. A report by K33 Research points to decreasing trading volumes, yields, and ETF flows as indicative of a risk-averse market sentiment. If Bitcoin drops below $94,000, it may test the psychological $90,000 support level, while a break above $100,000 can result in a retest of January highs. With technical signals indicating indecisiveness, traders are waiting for a catalyst for a clear price direction. Bitcoin is range-trading between $94,000 and $100,000 with volatility at multi-month lows, sparking fears of liquidation risks. FTX repayments have affected market liquidity, with traders waiting for a breakout. A fall below $94,000 may drive BTC to $90,000, while breaking above $100,000 might give rise to a bullish rally. • BTC has been range-bound between $94,000 and $100,000 over the last two weeks, failing to break its range. • The recent price drop was spurred by FTX starting repayments, affecting market liquidity and sentiment among traders. • BTC’s volatility has come down to multi-month lows, which is of concern regarding the possibility of liquidation cascades in case a significant move takes place. • The RSI at 42 and MACD convergence suggest there is no distinct momentum, representing uncertainty in the market. • A breakdown below $94,000 can send BTC towards $90,000, and a breakout above $100,000 can induce a rally. • Slumping trading volumes, ETF flows, and yields mean the traders are holding out for a clear directional move. • There is no immediate bullish catalyst in the offing, so BTC’s next big move will rely on external market events. Bitcoin’s market activity has tempered noticeably, with volatility falling to multi-month lows, reflecting a risk-averse trading climate. One of the influencing factors in the market is recent FTX repayments, wherein the exchange has initiated repayment of customers who had claims worth less than $50,000, and higher repayment amounts are to be initiated shortly. This has brought liquidity changes, which have resulted in shifting trader sentiment. Furthermore, a K33 Research report suggests that volumes of trading, ETF flows, and yields have fallen to their lowest level since prior to the previous U.S. Presidential election, an indication of less market participation and skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s next big move. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The current market stage is marked by indecisiveness, as investors wait for clear indications before making big moves. With moderate leverage in the market, the possibility of instant large-scale liquidations is still low, but the absence of strong momentum indicates that traders are following a wait-and-watch strategy. Market sentiment is still guarded, and there are no imminent drivers for significant price action. The medium- to long-term direction of Bitcoin is still subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory changes, and institutional investment, all of which will have their say in the next wave of market action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical charts show that Bitcoin is in consolidation, with no obvious momentum to break out. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 42, indicating neutral to weakly bearish sentiment since it cannot break above the 50 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are still tightly entwined, indicating uncertainty among traders. The price has been ranging within a tight band, with support and resistance levels controlling short-term actions. Also, CME futures premiums have fallen below 5%, a historically important level that tends to precede changes in market trends. With the current configuration, traders are watching closely for any breakout above or below the consolidation range, which may determine the next major move for Bitcoin. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break above the $100,000 resistance level, it may initiate a new bullish momentum, drawing fresh buying interest. A break above this range could lead to a retest of its January high at $106,012, possibly marking the beginning of a more sustained uptrend. Optimism in the market, institutional inflows, and other general economic drivers like regulatory clarity or ETF-based demand might propel this rally further. Historically, Bitcoin has fared well in more robust basis regimes, so an improvement in trading volume and investor sentiment could keep the momentum on the upside. On the negative side, if Bitcoin cannot sustain the $94,000 support level, it may drop further towards the psychologically important $90,000 level. A breakdown below this level could cause stop-loss selling and intensify selling pressure, resulting in further downward movement. Moreover, low volatility and diminishing trading activity mean that a precipitous

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Reaches More Than Two-Month High Versus USD on BoJ Rate Hike Speculation and Global Risk Aversion

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) has reached a more than two-month high versus the US Dollar (USD) as escalating speculation of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes pushes Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to record-high levels. This narrowing differential rate enhances the Yen’s attractiveness, again fueled by worldwide risk aversion after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs. Even with the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bias, the USD cannot find footing, with investors watching for key support levels around the 150.00 psychological level for USD/JPY. If the bearish pressure persists, the pair may dip further, with resistance around 151.00-152.65 potentially capping any attempts at an upside. Market players now look to US economic data and Fed rhetoric for guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Higher bets on more BoJ rate hikes drive Japanese government bond yields up, bolstering the Yen and reducing the rate spread. • Investor morale deteriorates as US President Donald Trump hints at fresh tariffs, triggering global risk aversion and increasing demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 psychological level, with a possible downside extension to 149.00 should bearish momentum continue. • Even with a hawkish Fed, the US Dollar fails to make headway, with future economic data and FOMC speeches likely to guide market direction. The Japanese Yen maintains its bullish run on increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes and spiking Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate gap bolsters the Yen, and the global risk aversion, which is fueled by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs, adds to safe-haven demand. The US Dollar is still unable to attract buyers, despite the hawkish tone set by the Federal Reserve, and keeps USD/JPY trading below the 150.00 psychological level. Traders now look for major support levels, Fed policy indications, and future US economic data to drive the pair. The Japanese Yen rises as increased BoJ rate hike hopes and jumping JGB yields lift demand. Risk aversion is driven by Trump’s tariff threats, also helping the Yen. The US Dollar, however, lags in spite of the Fed’s hawkishness, leaving USD/JPY close to the pivotal 150.00 mark.  • Increasing hopes of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes drive Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to their highest level in more than a decade. • The Japanese Yen jumps to a two-month high versus the US Dollar as the declining rate differential enhances its attractiveness. • US President Donald Trump’s proposals for fresh tariffs induce global risk aversion, and demand for the safe-haven Yen rises. • The pair approaches the pivotal 150.00 level, with additional downside potential towards 149.00 if bearish momentum persists. • In spite of the Federal Reserve’s conservative sentiment and inflationary worries, the US Dollar has a hard time gaining momentum versus the rising Yen. • Japan’s Trade Minister is set to discuss tariff exclusions with the US, something that may have implications on trade and currency trends. • Market participants look for significant US economic indicators, such as jobless claims and Fed speeches, to provide additional guidance on the USD/JPY currency pair. The Japanese Yen is still firming as hopes rise that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. Increased Japanese government bond (JGB) yields are a sign of the central bank moving away from its extremely loose monetary stance, and this makes the Yen more appealing to investors. Further, the latest economic news, such as Japan’s better-than-expected Q4 GDP, back up the argument that the Japanese economy is healthy enough to digest a rise in interest rates. Such a move in monetary policy is regarded as being a pivotal decision for Japan while it faces the challenges of economic recovery and taming inflation. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, geopolitics and trade tensions contribute to the attractiveness of the Yen as a safe-haven currency. US President Donald Trump’s recent comments regarding new tariffs have disturbed world markets, and investors have turned to more secure assets such as the Yen for stability. Japan’s Trade Minister is also scheduled to discuss possible exemptions from the tariffs, underlining the current trade tensions. In contrast, while taking into consideration the Federal Reserve’s conservative stance with regards to next rate decisions, the US Dollar has not significantly appreciated, as market players still await forthcoming economic data and policy updates from the two nations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The USD/JPY pair flirts with key 150.00 psychological benchmark, with speculative traders closely looking at key supports and resistances. A clean break below 150.00 would further boost bearish momentum, driving the pair to the 149.60-149.55 area and then down to 149.00. Oscillators on the daily chart are still in negative ground, reflecting persistent selling pressure without yet showing signs of being oversold. On the upside, the 150.90-151.00 area now serves as a first resistance level, with any break above likely to initiate a short-covering rally to 151.40. Additional gains may encounter selling interest near the 152.00 level, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.65 is an important pivot point for short-term traders. FORECAST If the USD/JPY pair can hold above the 150.90-151.00 resistance area, it may cause a short-term rebound. Breaking above the level could prompt buyers to take the pair towards the next important barrier at 151.40. Above this, additional upside may be challenged in the vicinity of the 152.00 psychological level, where selling pressure would be expected. But if bullish momentum persists, the level of 152.65, coinciding with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), will be an important level to monitor. A firm break above this would potentially set the stage for additional gains, drawing buyers into higher resistance areas. On the negative side, persistent bear momentum would lead USD/JPY to break below the pivotal 150.00 psychological support. A clean break below this level might boost the selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the subsequent support area of 149.60-149.55. If this level is also breached, the downtrend might continue towards the 149.00 level, followed

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Currencies

USD/CHF Weakened Due to Trade Tensions and Minor USD Decline: Major Market Developments

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  • February 20, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair has weakened to the 0.9025 level, ending a three-day winning streak due to fresh US Dollar (USD) selling and increasing global trade tensions. New tariff threats from the previous US President Donald Trump have created fear of a trade war, driving demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). In addition, a drop in US Treasury bond yields and a risk-averse market sentiment have added to the pressure on the USD. Expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook may, however, offer some relief to the USD, potentially capping further losses in the pair. Market participants now look forward to future US economic releases such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members, for new trading hints.  KEY LOOKOUTS • New trade war fears induced by fresh threats from Donald Trump support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and clobber USD/CHF. • Rebounding selling in the US Dollar, combined with falling Treasury yields, bears on USD/CHF even as a hawkish Federal Reserve tone lends some support. • Market participants look to important US economic data releases, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, which have the potential to impact USD/CHF price action. • Federal Reserve commentary could shed light on future monetary policy, potentially influencing market sentiment and fueling USD/CHF volatility. USD/CHF is under pressure as increased US Dollar (USD) weakness and rising trade tensions cool investor appetite. Fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump have fueled fears of an impending trade war, propelling demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). Further, a drop in US Treasury bond yields has eclipsed the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed), capping USD’s revival. But the next releases of US economic data, such as Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and speeches by influential FOMC members may bring new information about monetary policy and drive USD/CHF price action in the next sessions. The USD/CHF currency pair loses ground as increased USD selling and growing trade tensions spur demand for safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc. Falling US Treasury yields dominate the Fed’s hawkish tone, while future US economic releases and FOMC speeches could direct additional price action. • The pair falls to the 0.9025 region, ending a three-day winning streak in the wake of increased USD selling and escalating trade tensions. • New tariff news drives international trade war fears, which support demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). • Weakening US Treasury bond yields and overall risk aversion hold down the US Dollar, which restricts its rally. • In spite of dovish FOMC minutes, hopes of a prolonged rate pause can lend some support to the USD. • Watch US Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for indications of economic health and potential market effect. • Remarks by Federal Reserve officials may influence expectations of monetary policy and guide USD price action. • A drop below 0.9025 can expose the pair to more weakness, with the next important support in the 0.8970-0.8965 zone. The USD/CHF currency pair continues to be affected by the developments in world trade and investors’ mood, especially following recent tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump. The threat of new tariffs created fears of an impending trade war, leading to investors’ appetite for safe assets such as the Swiss Franc (CHF). This change of market sentiment reflects wider economic uncertainty, as the policies of trade continue to weigh on global financial stability. Furthermore, the conservative tone in equity markets suggests investors are taking prudent stock of risks, with a special emphasis on safe-haven currencies in light of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Meanwhile, the movement of the US Dollar is influenced by a combination of economic signals and policy expectations. Although the Federal Reserve has been hawkish, recent market developments indicate that investors are keenly interested in future releases of economic data. Important reports such as the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are likely to reveal more about the health of the US economy. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials’ speeches can provide greater insight into monetary policy in the future, shaping market expectations and impacting overall investor sentiment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF currency pair has been resisted at the 0.9055 level, where selling pressure was witnessed, resulting in a pullback towards the 0.9025 region. The pair’s failure to hold gains indicates a possible change in momentum, with traders closely monitoring major support levels around 0.8970-0.8965. A breakdown of this level could set the stage for additional decline, while a rebound from here might signal consolidation or fresh buying interest. To the upside, continued action over 0.9055 could enhance bullish pressure, driving the pair to the next resistance around 0.9100. Momentum oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages will play a key role in establishing the next directional impulse. FORECAST If the USD strengthens on hawkish Federal Reserve cues or better-than-anticipated US economic news, the USD/CHF currency pair may try to bounce back. A breakout above the 0.9055 resistance level may encourage more buying interest, and the pair may head towards the 0.9100 psychological level. Any relief in global risk appetite or relaxation in trade tensions also may take away demand for the safe-haven Swiss Franc, supporting the USD. Investors will also be monitoring future FOMC speeches for interest rate direction clues, which would support the dollar and push the pair higher. To the downside, ongoing global trade tensions and risk aversion may keep the Swiss Franc underpinned, capping any USD/CHF recovery. If the pair cannot hold above the 0.9025 area, it may see losses extend to the 0.8970-0.8965 support area. A clean breakdown below this level could initiate further selling pressure, leaving the pair vulnerable to deeper losses. Weaker

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