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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Continues as Crucial Support Levels Remain Unbroken

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  • February 25, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair continues to uphold its bullish trend, trading above the 1.2600 support level and still within an upward channel pattern. Technical analysis, such as the 14-day RSI at more than 50 and the price still above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, supports the short-term rising trend. Abrupt resistance is at 1.2690, the two-month high, with an additional target to the upside at 1.2811 and conceivably 1.2960 should the uptrend bias intensify. To the downside, support is found at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), with a break below these potentially causing a drop toward 1.2490, the lower end of the rising channel. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is confronted with short-term resistance at the two-month high of 1.2690; a break above might propel the pair to 1.2811 and beyond. • The nine-day EMA of 1.2597 is crucial short-term support; a fall below might undermine momentum, resulting in a possible fall to 1.2490. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum and making further gains more likely if the trend continues. • The duo trades in an uptrend channel, with the price action on the side of further gains unless a breakdown at the lower edge at 1.2490 happens. GBP/USD pair remains in its bullish momentum, staying above the 1.2600 support level while trending in an ascending channel pattern. The pair meets short-term resistance at 1.2690, a two-month high, with additional room for further upside to 1.2811 and 1.2960 if the bullish momentum continues. Key support levels to look out for are 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a break below these levels may result in a fall towards 1.2490, the lower end of the channel. The 14-day RSI level above 50 confirms further uptrend, strengthening strong short-term price action and suggesting scope for further rises. GBP/USD currency pair continues with its upward strength, staying above 1.2600 support in an upward channel. The resistance is at 1.2690, while the support is at 1.2597. Above-50 RSI of the 14-day period indicates strength to continue, with potential to move further upwards if the trend continues. • GBP/USD is still in an uptrend channel, keeping gains above 1.2600 support. • Breaking above this two-month high has the potential to send the pair up to 1.2811 and above. • The nine-day EMA is the initial support, then 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and 1.2490. • Shows bullish strength, meaning the pair can continue its rise. • Price is above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, ensuring short-term bullish momentum. • If the resistance levels are broken, the pair could head to the upper edge of the channel. • A fall below 1.2490 may douse the bullish sentiment and create a reversal. GBP/USD currency pair remains to show resilience in the market, underpinned by a stable trading scenario. Investor sentiment towards the British pound continues to be positive, fueled by general economic circumstances and market sentiments. The currency pair shows a steady trend, mirroring the continued economic engagement between the UK and the US. Traders are following closely major developments such as monetary policies, inflation figures, and economic indicators that could affect long-term price action. Market participants are still active, evaluating possible opportunities while monitoring overall macroeconomic trends. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA GBP/USD is still the area of interest for investors and traders who want stability and growth. As the overall economic environment changes, trade relations, central bank policy, and geopolitics become major contributors to market dynamics. The capacity of the pair to maintain momentum showcases the equilibrium between demand and supply, as well as the faith in each economy. Market trends are still being watched by traders, making adjustments in their strategies according to economic analysis and sector developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bullish framework, trading in an ascending channel pattern and above critical support levels. 14-day RSI is still above 50, which signals ongoing positive momentum, and the pair remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, confirming short-term strength. Short-term resistance is at 1.2690, with additional upside targets of 1.2811 and 1.2960 in case bullish momentum continues. On the negative side, major support levels are at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a possible pullback to 1.2490 if there is increased selling pressure. Overall, technical indicators point towards an extension of the uptrend unless major support levels are breached. FORECAST GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bullish outlook, with a possibility of extending gains if it breaks above major resistance levels. Successful breakout of 1.2690 would take the pair up towards 1.2811, the three-month high, followed by the ceiling of the upward channel at 1.2960. The pair continues to be sustained by robust short-term moving averages, supporting the chance of more up movement. On the expectation of favorable market mood, given stability in economics and a weak US dollar, GBP/USD is likely to maintain its strength with increased buying appetite. GBP/USD is at risk of going lower if it is unable to maintain above important support levels. Breaking below 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) may weaken the near-term trend, which can result in a possible test of 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and further to 1.2490, the lower limit of the rising channel. In the event of intensified selling pressure on account of unforeseen macroeconomic developments or a change in market sentiment, the pair may move lower, testing lower supports. A move below 1.2490 can confirm a stronger correction, flipping the near-term bias to bearish.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Finds Support Below Mid-$32.00s on Mixed Technical Indications

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  • February 25, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a bullish bias below the mid-$32.00s, ending a two-day losing streak as it finds modest support. While recent buying interest has been evident, technical indicators are pointing towards mixed signals, and caution is advised for bulls. A break above $33.00 on a sustained basis could propel further gains towards $34.00 and higher, while solid support is seen around the $32.00-$31.75 area. Any corrective slide could be considered as a buying opportunity, although a firm fall below the 100-day SMA level of $31.25 may change momentum into the hands of bearish investors, which might pull silver to the $30.00 psychological level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver requires consistent support above $33.00 in order to assure bullish momentum, which might challenge $34.00 and the multi-year high around $35.00. • The $32.00-$31.75 region provides solid support, and any fall is likely to find buyers, capping losses for XAG/USD. • A firm break below may turn sentiment bearish, leaving the way open for further losses towards the $30.00 psychological level. • Oscillators indicate caution, and it is best for traders to wait for confirmation before taking a position for a prolonged move in either direction. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a bullish bias but has some major technical barriers, especially around the $33.00 resistance level, which needs to be broken for extended bullish momentum. Support is strong around the $32.00-$31.75 area, where buying interest could cap downside risks. A fall below the 100-day SMA at $31.25, however, could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, possibly taking silver down to the $30.00 psychological level. With conflicting technical indicators on the daily chart, the traders need to be cautious and await clear indication before positioning for the next big move. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading bullish but is met with resistance at $33.00, requiring a breakout for additional gains. Robust support at $32.00 constrains downside risk, while a breakdown below $31.25 has the potential to turn momentum bearish. Conflicting technical indications mean traders need to wait for confirmation before taking firm positions. • Silver picks up momentum below mid-$32.00s, ending a two-day losing streak with slight buying demand. • A critical resistance at $33.00, where a breakout is required to validate bullish interest towards $34.00 and $35.00. • Initial support at $32.00-$31.75, where buying demand may cap bearish movements. • 100-day SMA at $31.25 acts as a crucial pivot point, with a fall below indicating a bearish trend. • Possible negative to $30.00 if silver cannot hold support and breaks important levels. • Divergent technical indicators on the daily chart indicate caution for traders prior to entering a clear direction. • Short-term corrective drops can be considered as opportunities to buy unless major support levels are broken. Silver remains to be of interest as a valuable commodity, supported by its industrial and investment demand. Trusted for its flexibility, silver finds extensive application in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices, and hence is an integral component in many industries. Investors also identify silver as a safe haven asset, particularly at times of economic instability, due to its inherent value and acting as a hedge against inflation. Given its dual use—as an industrial metal and as a store of value—silver continues to be a desirable choice for traders and long-term investors. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA In addition to its market value, silver has served a historical function in currency and wealth storage. It has been utilized in coinage for centuries and is still a top pick among bullion investors. Increasing consumption in the solar panel manufacturing, in the field of renewable energy, further intensifies its long-term prospects. With the constant advancement of world industries, silver is likely to be increasingly in demand, reemphasizing its role as an essential metal in economic growth as well as technological progress. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) portrays a mixed setup, and cautious approach should be followed by the traders before pursuing a directional momentum. The failure to maintain gains over the $33.00 resistance level on multiple occasions indicates a likely consolidation period, and critical support around $32.00-$31.75 has prevented the downside movements from going further. A decisive cross of the $33.00 level might reignite bullish interest, taking prices to even higher resistance levels. On the contrary, a fall below the 100-day SMA at $31.25 can be an indication of a bearish turn, causing more deeper corrections. With oscillators reflecting indecisiveness, traders should wait for confirmation before positioning for the next major trend. FORECAST Silver has the potential to extend its gains if it manages to break above the crucial $33.00 resistance level. A sustained move beyond this mark could strengthen bullish momentum, leading to a test of the $34.00 level and possibly even the multi-year peak near $35.00. Strong demand from industrial and investment sectors, along with inflation concerns, could provide additional support for silver prices. If bullish momentum continues, silver may see further upside, supported by favorable market conditions and growing interest in precious metals as a hedge against economic uncertainty. If silver cannot hold ground in the vicinity of the $32.00-$31.75 zone, it might be subjected to rising selling pressure. A dip below the 100-day SMA of $31.25 can flip market sentiment bearish, and that would set the stage for a drop to the $30.00 psychological mark. Additional downside threats lurk if worldwide economic prospects soften, hurting industrial demand for silver. If bear momentum quickens, the metal might tumble into the $29.50-$29.00 region, where there is strong historical support.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Reversal: US Dollar Recovery vs Tariff-Fueled Loonie Jitters

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  • February 24, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair recovered around 1.4220 in European trade as the US Dollar regained nearly all of its intraday decline even as dismal US flash PMI data arrived, with market sentiment still subdued amid impending threats of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada. Technical indicators such as a falling triangle pattern and a 20-period EMA indicate a range-bound trend with additional downside risk if important support levels are violated, but a break higher may drive the pair to higher resistance levels. The USD/CAD pair rebounds as the US Dollar recovers from its intraday losses despite disappointing US flash S&P Global PMI data for February. Investor sentiment is becoming cautious against the backdrop of impending fears about possible 25% tariffs for Canadian imports from President Trump, as the Bank of Canada’s Governor threatens of drastic economic ramifications in case tariffs are levied. KEY LOOKOUTS • Move below 1.4151 support, potentially indicating a greater downtrend and driving the pair towards December lows. • US Dollar, since its strength would offset poor US PMI figures and have a strong impact on USD/CAD movements. • Potential tariff news from the US government, since policy changes would again affect investor morale and Loonie stability. • Upside breakout above 1.4246, which would initiate a rally towards resistance levels if market sentiment is supportive. The USD/CAD currency pair has been resilient with a significant rebound to close to 1.4220 as the US Dollar regained intraday losses. Even though poor flash PMI data showed contracting service sector activity in the US, the USD was strong, which helped the Loonie pair. Yet, ongoing uncertainty over prospective 25% tariffs on Canada continues to support a defensive stance for the Canadian Dollar, as President Trump’s review of tariffs further fuels investor anxiety. US Dollar strength will counter weak US PMI figures, and hence the currency recovery will be a key driver for USD/CAD action. Tariff uncertainty is still a major factor, so watch closely for any policy changes by the US administration that may further erode investor confidence and Loonie stability. A fall below 1.4151 may see further selling towards December lows, but good US Dollar resilience holds the pair up even in the face of poor PMI data. Tariff uncertainty is still a major issue, and a breakout above 1.4246 on the upside may release further bullish momentum. • The USD regained its losses rapidly, supporting the pair to recover around 1.4220. • Even after disappointing US flash PMI, the strength of the USD is a major driver. • Speculation of possible 25% tariffs on Canadian imports continues to disturb investor confidence. • The pair is in a descending triangle with a support around 1.4151. • Overlapping of the Loonie price by the 20-period EMA indicates a sideways trend. • The RSI is still in the 40-60 region, showing indecision among market participants. • A bullish move above 1.4246 would potentially see the pair touching resistance areas at 1.4300 and 1.4380, or face further downtrends if it breaks below 1.4151. The US Dollar made a significant comeback in European trading sessions, recovering the majority of its previous losses following miserable US flash S&P Global PMI data. Investors seem to be taking the strength of the US Dollar despite the mixed signals from the economy, showing confidence in the overall strength of the currency. The USD/CAD currency pair has remained strong as the US Dollar recovers from previous losses despite poor US flash PMI figures for February. Investors are looking at the prospects for US monetary policy and the possible effect of an economic slowdown, which has not had a significant impact on the strength of the US Dollar. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, market players are still wary as a result of impending threats from possible tariff measures. With President Trump considering not imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian imports and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem sounding the alarm about dire economic consequences, sentiment on the Canadian dollar is still guarded in this state of uncertainty. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD chart is characterized by a falling triangle formation, with significant support and resistance levels portending future direction. The 20-period EMA overlap signals that there is no strong momentum, while the 14-period RSI, which is always within a neutral range, points to the fact that traders are presently indecisive. Such technical indicators suggest that the market is in consolidation mode, and future price action will be guided by a definitive break from the present balance. FORECAST In case market sentiment turns negative, a breakdown below significant support levels would increase selling pressure, driving the pair towards lower levels seen in earlier sessions. Such a decline may be supported by ongoing economic uncertainties and policy issues, which would lead investors to take a more risk-averse approach that may extend the bearish trend. Conversely, if there is renewed buying interest and momentum picks up, the pair might rally towards higher resistance levels, re-establishing a more bullish trading regime. This would be an indication of enhanced confidence in economic indicators and an adjustment of policy risks, leading to a broader market rebound.

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Rises on China Stimulus and Fed Rate Cut Expectations as US Dollar Weakens

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  • February 24, 2025
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The Australian Dollar is gaining strength against a weakening US Dollar as a combination of global and domestic factors alters market sentiment. A strong Chinese government policy announcement for 2025, with plans for ambitious rural reforms and detailed rural revitalization plans, has lifted confidence in Australia, as China is its major trading partner. This is compounded by news of government-sponsored developers bidding up land prices in China, a sign of renewed economic activity in the region. Locally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent reduction of the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points—the first in four years—has aided the AUD’s rebound, while Governor Michele Bullock kept inflation pressures and the direction of future rate cuts firmly in check. KEY LOOKOUTS • Watch for China’s future policy cues and rural reform implementation, as successful implementation might continue to fuel land acquisitions and raise the AUD vs. the USD. • US economic data such as PMI readings and unemployment claims remain major drivers of the USD; substantial changes might redefine the AUD/USD path. • Watch the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy cues and possible interest rate movements, as additional loosening can fuel domestic growth and support the AUD’s bullish trend. The Australian Dollar has registered a strong bounce on hopes about China’s 2025 policy statement, which features intentions on rural reforms and a revival of the beleaguered real estate market. On the other hand, the US Dollar has come under pressure in the wake of a string of disappointing economic data points, ranging from soft PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, further fueled by policy actions from President Trump to curb Chinese investments in strategic areas. Overall, the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair is still positive, with the currency trading inside an uptrending channel and receiving support close to major moving averages, suggesting potentially a prolonged bout of strength for the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar is strengthening against a weakening US Dollar, supported by China’s strong policy announcement for 2025 of rural reforms and a rejuvenated property market, while the US is hit by weak economic data and conflicting PMI readings. • China’s 2025 policy announcement outlining rural reforms and property market stimulus boosts Australian optimism, potentially strengthening the AUD due to profound bilateral trade links. • President Trump’s order to cap Chinese investments in major U.S. industries has introduced uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and further weakening USD performance. • Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point rate reduction—the first in four years—indicates loosening policy, but officials warn that additional cuts are uncertain amidst inflation pressures. • Downbeat U.S. economic reports, such as mixed PMI readings and increasing jobless claims, continue to weigh on the USD, affecting the overall AUD/USD exchange rate dynamics. • Federal Reserve officials say that even with strong job growth, ongoing inflation worries could require additional policy action, which could see further rate cuts this year. • Escalating U.S. trade tensions, represented by tariffs against pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and auto parts, may interfere with global supply chains and continue affecting currency fluctuations. • AUD/USD pair in an uptrending channel, enjoys robust support levels close to the key exponential moving averages and resistance at psychological zones. The Australian Dollar is being supported by upbeat economic indications flowing from China’s forward-looking policy statement in 2025. The announcement, which outlines expansive rural reforms and steps to revive the property sector, has increased confidence in Australia markets due to its deep trade relationship with China. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent move to loosen monetary policy via a rate cut indicates attempts to stimulate domestic growth, further supporting the currency. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In contrast, the US Dollar is under pressure in the context of muted economic data and conservative policy expectations. Weak economic data coupled with fresh curbs on Chinese investments have added to uncertainty, casting a shadow over the US economic upturn. These events highlight the persistent issues in the US economy, leading market participants to reassess future growth opportunities and the wider implications for global trade patterns. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS          AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6370 within an ascending channel, indicating strong bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, suggesting sustained strength, while immediate support levels are evident at the nine-day and 14-day EMAs around 0.6347 and 0.6330, respectively. This is complemented by the lower channel boundary close to 0.6320, while resistance appears around the psychological 0.6400 level and the channel’s top at close to 0.6430, highlighting levels of importance to observe in case of possible trend resumption. FORECAST In the future, the Australian Dollar may continue to gain if favorable developments continue. Favorable policy actions from China to revive its rural and property markets may further fuel trade optimism between the two countries. Moreover, accommodative domestic monetary policies in Australia may further support investor confidence and attract capital inflows, setting the stage for a continued upward trend in the AUD. On the other hand, the AUD could be challenged if negative global or domestic conditions arise. Increased uncertainty from worsening US economic numbers or growing trade tensions would modify market sentiment and lead to a conservative reassessment of risk. Additionally, any change from expected policy developments in China or changes in Australia’s fiscal position could lead to a reversal of the currency’s recent advances, underlining the need to closely watch broader economic signs.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Cautious Yen Rally: BoJ Hike Bets and Falling Back JGB Yields Keep USD/JPY Below 150

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  • February 24, 2025
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The US Dollar has stayed below 150 versus the Japanese Yen, at its lowest against the currency since October, because of increasing expectation that the Bank of Japan will keep raising rates as inflation endures. But backpedaling on JGB yields caps the yen’s gains, as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signals willingness to boost bond purchases if long-term yields increase too steeply. Even with USD-selling momentum, the dollar continues to be under pressure, weighed down by poor US economic data and persistent inflation worries. Japanese Yen bulls are going slow as falling JGB yields and chances of moreforceful BoJ rate hikes keep the currency’s regain in check, keeping the USD/JPY pair under the key 150 level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Track BoJ actions on bond purchases and policy changes since they can shift market sentiment fast and impact USD/JPY levels through major thresholds. • Monitor JGB yield movements keenly, as falling yields may top the yen’s rise, capping potential USD/JPY rebound and impacting overall market dynamics. • Monitor US economic data releases, such as retail and PMI numbers, because worsening indicators may lead to rapid changes in investor sentiment. • Monitor key technical levels on USD/JPY, as breaks of support or resistance areas may facilitate directional moves and quickly shift market positioning. Investors will need to keep a close eye on Bank of Japan policy moves, as surprise bond-buying interventions or rate hikes could quickly change USD/JPY dynamics. Trends in Japanese Government Bond yields need to be closely watched because steadily falling yields could hamper yen advances and cap pair recovery. It is also important to watch U.S. economic data, including retail sales and PMI numbers, closely because deteriorating data can quickly turn market sentiment. Lastly, monitoring important technical levels on the USD/JPY pair is essential since breaks through set support or resistance areas may force sudden directional movements. Bank of Japan policy and Japanese government bond yields since any surprise movements may rapidly change USD/JPY dynamics. Closely monitor U.S. economic indicators and important technical levels for early indications of shifts in market sentiment. • Yen bulls are still guarded even at a two-month peak, as a result of worries about falling Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. • BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated potential for more bond purchases if yields surge, foreshadowing additional rate hike expectations. • Recent figures reporting Japan’s core inflation at a 19-month peak support projections of more forceful monetary policy tightening. • The USD/JPY pair remains below the pivotal 150 level, with technical resistance anticipated close to this psychological level. • Weaker-than-expected US economic data, such as a disappointing Walmart sales estimate and weakening PMI, have added to renewed USD selling. • Follow-through buying might push the pair upward towards resistance levels, while any weakness in support might set off a more abrupt fall. • There is support on the immediate side around the levels of 148.85-149.00, with downside targets possible at the 147.00 levels if these are broken. Investors in Japanese Yen are being cautious in light of changing market conditions, with expectations of continued policy tightening from the Bank of Japan being muted by efforts to stabilize government bond yields. The central bank has indicated that it is prepared to step in should bond yields climb too steeply, a gesture that highlights its determination to preserve financial stability while coping with the challenges presented by increasing inflation. Recent evidence of a persistent increase in core inflation has further cemented market hopes for more assertive action, even as such policy signals work to contain speculative action in the currency. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, United States economic indicators such as softer retail sales projections and deceleration in general business activity have added to balanced sentiment in international markets. Investors are still keeping an eye on the overall economic environment, where cautious optimism is slowly giving way to a more cautious approach. With policymakers watching these closely, the changing economic story on both sides of the Pacific is to influence monetary strategies in the future without causing sudden changes in market activity. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is currently struggling with major levels that may determine its immediate direction. The close proximity resistance around the 150.00 level acts as a psychological wall, and a prolonged break above this level could set the stage for the pair to aim for higher resistance around the 150.70-150.75 level and higher towards the 150.90-151.00 horizontal support. On the other hand, the region between 148.85 to 148.65 has proven to be a crucial support area, where a breakdown could pave the way for additional losses down to the 147.00-147.45 area. This technical configuration indicates that investors would be keenly watching these levels in order to assess the vigor of potential reversal or continuation moves on the pair’s path. FORECAST If sentiment improves, the USD/JPY pair may witness a gradual upward trajectory. A continued surge through the 150.00 psychological level can create a rally and enable the pair to probe resistance at around the 150.70-150.75 area and then advance towards the 150.90-151.00 zone. Such possible upmove would be underpinned by follow-through purchases and a positive reinterpretation of the policy position of the BoJ, which, if seen as an indicator of faith in Japan’s economic prospects, would fuel fresh investor sentiment. On the negative side, if the immediate support levels around 148.85-148.65 do not hold, the pair can see a sharper fall. A break in this region may trigger a quick change in sentiment, driving the pair lower towards the next support level in the 147.00-147.45 region. In such a case, ongoing vigilance among participants and fresh pressure from USD selling may intensify the fall, placing greater emphasis on these support levels in mitigating the downside risk.

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Approaches $70 as Restarted Kurdistan Exports and International Tensions Bear Down on Crude Prices

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  • February 24, 2025
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WTI is near $70 a barrel as rising fears of downside pressure build amid Iraq’s imminent restart of exports of 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan’s oilfields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Geopolitical strains remain with the continuing Russia-Ukraine war and negotiations between Russian and US groups with a view to enhancing bilateral relations, and investors expect continued market effect from prospective US trade policy changes and imminent tariff news. Market analysts also look forward to the announcement of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, an important benchmark for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate stance. KEY LOOKOUTS • WTI as resumed Kurdistan’s oilfield exports and worldwide geopolitical events shape crude oil pricing dynamics. • Track current Russia-Ukraine tensions and future EU summits, since these geopolitical events have the potential to impact global energy markets and investor sentiment greatly. • Track US trade policy changes and tariff announcements, which could heighten global trade tensions and put extra pressure on crude oil market stability. • Expect release of the PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, to analyze changes in prospective interest rate policy impacting the energy market. WTI as Kurdish oilfield resume exports and geopolitical events worldwide continue to shape the dynamics of crude oil prices. Monitor current tensions between Russia and Ukraine and coming EU summits, as the geopolitical tensions will have a wide-ranging impact on global energy markets and investor perceptions. Watch for US trade policy changes and tariff announcements, which can heighten global trade tensions and further weigh on crude oil market stability. Wait for the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s most important inflation gauge, to see if there are changes in future interest rate policies that influence the energy industry. WTI is under downward pressure in the face of resumed Kurdistan exports and increased geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and possible US trade policy changes. Market participants are monitoring the release of the PCE index later today for clues on future Fed policy. • WTI is around $70 per barrel in Asian trading. • Downside pressure is expected with the resumption of exports from Kurdistan oilfields. • Iraq’s Oil Ministry confirmed that 185,000 barrels per day would be exported through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. • Global crude prices are influenced by increased geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict. • Russian and US delegations are due to meet this week to discuss how to improve bilateral relations. • Prospective changes in US trade policy and future tariff announcements could provide additional pressure. • Market players are waiting for the upcoming release of the PCE index for some guidance on the future direction of Fed policy. WTI crude oil prices are being shaped by a variety of geopolitical considerations, including the reopening of oil production from Kurdistan’s fields. Iraq’s Oil Ministry has announced an intention to sell 185,000 barrels a day through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, which has sparked curiosity about what impact this may have on global supplies of crude oil. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to attract worldwide interest, with debates ongoing about possible diplomatic interventions between Russia and the US to better relations, further influencing the climate in which international oil markets are conducted. Oil prices remain at about $70 a barrel as global affairs continue to influence the market. Recent proposals to restart oil exports from Kurdistan through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline have been confirmed by Iraq’s Oil Ministry, and this will see a lot of crude oil in the international market soon.  WTI OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, wider geopolitical trends are adding to the uncertainty. Continuing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, negotiations between Russian and US delegations, and possible changes in US trade policy are all trends that market observers are watching intently. Moreover, the impending release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is likely to shed more light on the direction of future economic policy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude seems to be consolidating at the $70 level, with recent chart action suggesting a phase of indecision among investors. Moving averages like the 50-day and 200-day are converging, which has been known to indicate a accumulation of potential volatility once a break is made. Also, significant support levels at the mid-$68 range have held firm, while resistance is seen to be building just above $70. Momentum gauges, such as the RSI, are in neutral mode, indicating that players are waiting for a clear cut move to go higher or dip lower. FORECAST  If OPEC+ chooses to restrain from production hikes or makes cuts, the threat of supply shortages could reinforce bullish sentiment, pushing prices over the $70 mark.Economic indicators continuing to be strong and geopolitical tensions relaxing could lead to renewed investor optimism pushing oil prices higher. Favorable trade news and consistent demand could facilitate a gradual recovery in WTI, particularly if any supply restrictions arise or if market sentiment tilts towards risk-on behavior. If the restart of Kurdistan’s exports results in a supply-suppressed market or if geopolitical and trade tensions worsen, oil prices might come under downward pressure. Deteriorating demand or negative economic indicators might induce a pullback below current levels, supporting a conservative market outlook. Moreover, rising volatility or even indications of monetary policy tightening, i.e., the hike of interest rates, might mute optimistic market sentiment and provide further downward pressure on crude oil.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Falls to 0.8950 as Bearish Bias Dominates, Targeting 0.8900 Support

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  • February 24, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair continues to go lower, trading around 0.8960 in Asian trading and sustaining losses for the third straight session. The technical indicators are indicating a persistent bearish bias, with the pair trading below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs and the RSI holding below the 50 mark, supporting further weakening. Market sentiment is pointing towards a move towards the psychological support level of 0.8900, and a break below this level may open the way for a further fall, possibly to the two-month low of 0.8736. On the other hand, a bounce above the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 may indicate a short-term bounce, opening the way for an advance towards the nine-month high of around 0.9201. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair remains under bearish pressure, trading below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which reinforces a continued downtrend and potential further depreciation. • An RSI persistently below 50 underscores the bearish trend, signaling oversold conditions that may prompt an upward correction after further downside extension. • A break below the key support at 0.8900 would trigger further declines, with possible targets being the two-month low of 0.8736 if the selling pressure accelerates. • On the other hand, a break above the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 could be a sign of short-term bounce and lay the groundwork for moving higher towards the nine-month high of 0.9201. USD/CHF is still under strong bearish pressure, trading below the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, which supports a strong downtrend and further weakening. The 14-day RSI always stays below 50, reflecting oversold levels that could trigger a corrective bounce after more price falls. If the pair breaks below the key psychological support of 0.8900, it may speed up a deeper fall towards the two-month low of 0.8736. In contrast, a breakdown below the nine-day EMA at 0.9009 can initiate short-term recovery with a potential stage set for the testing of the nine-month peak around 0.9201. USD/CHF trades below crucial moving averages with the 14-day RSI below 50, indicating bearish sentiment and continued depreciation. Breaking below 0.8900 may send the pair towards the two-month trough at 0.8736, while advancing above 0.9009 may initiate a short-term correction. • Trading close to 0.8960 during Asian trading. • Sustained losses over three consecutive sessions. • Trades below both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, showing bearish momentum. • The 14-day RSI is still below 50, supporting the bearish trend. • Psychological support at 0.8900, a break potentially triggering more declines. • A fall below 0.8900 might have the pair targeting the two-month low at 0.8736. • On the positive side, the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 is serving as the key resistance, with rebound potentially stretching to the nine-month high around 0.9201. USD/CHF continues to be mainly bearish since the pair still continues to display vulnerability in the market. The pair is supported mainly by the sustained selling pressure that has held the pair below critical levels of support. Although the duo has seen its third straight losing day, there is a need to watch for possible changes in market sentiment that may affect its direction in subsequent sessions. Lacking major reversals, USD/CHF may continue being susceptible to more downgrades in light of its prolonged bearish momentum. But traders need to monitor general economic trends or geopolitical events that may influence market trends and investor sentiment. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Most market players are observing the pair with interest, given the general economic uncertainties and global financial trends that may be affecting investor sentiment. In the future, analysts are keeping an eye out for how changes in global economic policies and market risk appetite may affect the USD/CHF dynamic. While some believe the situation will stabilize as market conditions change, others foresee that ongoing caution may cause further adjustments, and thus, keeping an eye on key economic events is crucial. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF shows a strong bearish trend, with the pair persistently trading below its nine-day and 14-day exponential moving averages. The 14-day RSI remaining below the 50 level further indicates the bearish momentum, implying that the market is now in an oversold position. Levels of importance are closely watched, with psychological support at 0.8900 potentially acting as a key hurdle, and potential support around the nine-day EMA of 0.9009 providing a potential turning point should the buyers enter. FORECAST Should market sentiment change and the general public regain confidence in buying the pair, the USD/CHF may break beyond near-term resistance levels, which can trigger a reversal move that would likely drive the pair toward higher ground. Increased buying interest and positive macroeconomic news may help sustain this recovery, and it is possible that a change in momentum is on the cards. If the pair reverses the current bearish momentum and can break above the nine-day EMA, increased buying interest may be seen. A recovery in the 14-day RSI, rising from oversold levels, can aid in forming a short-term uptrend, putting the USD/CHF on course to challenge resistance levels and target the nine-month high. On the other hand, if there’s sustained selling pressure, the pair may continue probing lower support levels. A breakdown below the 0.8900 threshold could lead to further losses, with ongoing RSI weakness support for bearish sentiment and pushing the pair towards the lower lows seen in the last couple of months. A breakdown below key support levels may deepen the fall, suggesting that persistent bearish conditions may push USD/CHF to challenge lower levels.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Falls Below $33.00 as Bullish Momentum Fades

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  • February 22, 2025
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The price of silver has fallen in recent times, with sentiment in the market indicating caution as the price is unable to break above major levels despite attempts by buyers. While bullish momentum fades, there is still hope for a rebound, subject to the broader economic environment, such as US yields and investor sentiment. The valuable metal remains under close scrutiny by market players as its behavior is still linked to changing variables beyond mere trends in price-action. While uncertainties still persist, the future of silver hangs in the balance of larger macroeconomic trends that may influence demand and investor tactics in the immediate future. KEY LOOKOUTS • XAG/USD needs to overcome the $33.20 resistance to affirm a reversal, with failure to stay above $33.00 potentially pointing towards more downward pressure. • A fall beneath the important $32.00 support level may set off more losses, with the 100-day SMA at $31.12 being a crucial buffer. • The RSI indicates contradictory signs, revealing the loss of bullish strength; should the decline continue, it would be able to generate prolonged pressure on silver prices. • Steadily rising US yields and decreasing market momentum indicate that technical resistance around $33.39 would become an obstacle to any future upside move in case buying interest wavers. XAG/USD needs to breach the $33.20 resistance level to validate a bullish reversal, as not being able to hold above $33.00 might indicate further bearish momentum. A drop below the crucial $32.00 support might lead to further losses, with the 100-day SMA at $31.12 acting as a crucial safety net. The RSI indicates conflicting signals, with diminishing bullish strength; if the downtrend persists, it could result in prolonged pressure on silver’s price. Elevating US yields and sagging market momentum imply that technical resistance around $33.39 might become an obstacle for any subsequent uptrend if buyer enthusiasm declines. XAG/USD has to penetrate the $33.20 hurdle to confirm a reversal in favour of bulls, whereas dropping below the $32.00 level may instigate more selling pressure. Mixed indications from the RSI and surging US yields reflect continuing headwinds to silver’s upswing. • Silver declined 1.20% to $32.54 after unable to sustain the pivotal $33.00 level. • The RSI shows conflicting signals, with positive signs being balanced by a declining slope. • Breaking the $33.20 resistance is essential for a continuation of the bullish trend. • Further resistance is seen at $33.39, which may lead the way to $34.00 if broken. • A fall below the $32.00 support could initiate further bear pressure. • The 100-day SMA at $31.12, then the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, serve as major support levels. • Dipping US yields have helped induce a risk-averse market mood, affecting the performance of silver. The silver price (XAG/USD) has declined 1.20%, dropping back to $32.54 after unable to remain above the significant $33.00 threshold. The dissipation of bullish strength, as signified by the RSI, indicates ambiguous momentum. Recent sessions have had silver settle around $32.54, a demonstration of tepid sentiment adjustment in the marketplace. In spite of positive moves for U.S. Treasury yields, investor sentiment was seemingly tempered, and silver didn’t take complete advantage of the favorable activity across the wider financial markets. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the future, market participants are all about the general economic climate as the main source of inspiration for silver’s upcoming performance. Experts closely follow worldwide economic indicators and overall market trends, implying that the revival of investor sentiment can become a deciding factor in the direction of the metal’s outlook for the next few weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver’s recent price action indicates a bearish perspective. The metal has fallen back to $32.54 after it could not hold above the pivotal $33.00 mark, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sending mixed messages—a positive reading balanced against a declining momentum trend. Traders are keenly watching a resistance level at $33.20, where breaking through may revive the bull trend, and support close to the 100-day Simple Moving Average at $31.12 remains important if the price keeps falling. FORECAST If silver is able to regain its momentum, a sustained break above the $33.20 resistance level would indicate the beginning of a new bullish trend. This break could set the stage for the metal to move towards higher levels, including the $33.39 level and even challenge the $34.00 level. Such a rising trend would most probably be cushioned by a change in investor attitude and positive economic indicators, prompting buyers to intervene and force the price upwards. Silver remains exposed to further declines if it cannot maintain its current support levels. A slip below the $32.00 threshold could trigger additional selling pressure, with the 100-day SMA near $31.12 providing a critical support zone. In this scenario, persistent weakness in market sentiment combined with ongoing economic uncertainties could lead to a deeper retracement, necessitating careful monitoring of price action and key technical indicators for signs of stabilization.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Rally Stalls at Record as Tariff Worries and Weaker U.S. Data Compel Pause

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  • February 22, 2025
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Gold rose for eight weeks running, reaching an all-time peak of $2,954 amidst uncertainty caused by widened U.S. tariffs imposed on lumber and soft commodities that further fueled market jitters. Whereas safe-haven buying drove bullion up against the backdrop of Trump’s strong trade rhetoric, conflicting U.S. economic readings—characterized by a positive Manufacturing PMI but a collapsed Services PMI, declining existing home sales, and softening consumer sentiment—kept investors tentative. Technical indicators indicate while gold’s upward bias is still intact, the possibility of retracement exists if there is a breach of major support levels around $2,900, all against the backdrop of expected monetary easing in 2025 by the Fed. KEY LOOKOUTS • Trump’s widening tariffs on lumber and soft commodities power market anxieties, driving safe-haven purchases, but pose downside risks in the context of global trade tensions. • While production improves, falling services PMI, decreasing home sales, and weaker consumer sentiment signal increasing caution. • Gold’s strength falters; an RSI exit from overbought levels and support at $2,900 could trigger a corrective pullback. • Central bank buying rose by more than 54% YoY, supporting bullishness in the face of trade uncertainty, while the Fed’s expected easing in 2025 is a long-term tailwind. Investors closely follow the deepening trade policy uncertainty as Trump’s soft commodities and lumber tariffs continue to stimulate market anxiety and safe-haven purchases. Meanwhile, diverging U.S. economic indicators come with rising manufacturing activity paired against contracting services PMI, softer home sales, and a cooling consumer mood to provide even greater caution. Technical indicators indicate that gold’s rally could be running out of steam, as the RSI leaves overbought levels and support at $2,900 is key. In addition, central bank buying jumped more than 54% YoY, and hopes for a 50 basis point Fed easing in 2025 provide additional bullish backing. Investors are paying close attention to Trump’s wider tariffs, which have sent gold prices to near historic highs due to safe-haven demand. Cautiousness may be appropriate based on mixed U.S. data and weakening technical momentum, with important support at $2,900. • Gold reached a new high of $2,954 following eight weeks of continuous increases. • Trump’s imposition of wider tariffs on lumber and soft commodities created market uncertainty. • American economic news recorded a higher Manufacturing PMI but a downgrading Services PMI. • Sinking current home sales and consumer attitudes deepened investors’ hesitations. • Indications in the technical arena show the market potentially reeling, with prime support around $2,900. • Central bank purchases surged more than 54% YoY, sustaining bull-like expectations. • Fed funds futures project that the next rate reduction will be a 50 basis point drop sometime in 2025. Gold has risen for eight straight weeks to a record $2,954 as policy uncertainty in global trade has been building. The announcement by President Trump to target tariffs on lumber and soft goods added to uncertainty in the markets, with investors turning to gold as a haven asset. Geopolitical anxiety underpinning the trend further involves ongoing diplomatic talks to calm the Russia-Ukraine conflict that has kept markets around the globe in a watchful mood. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Conversely, US economic data has a mixed report. Although there has been some resilience in manufacturing activity, softer services sector performance and weakening consumer sentiment indicate underlying economic issues. Moreover, the rise in central bank gold purchases indicates expanding optimism in the metal as a store of value. Investors continue to monitor further policy action, especially with hopes for a possible loosening by the Federal Reserve during 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysis shows that although gold still has an upward bias, momentum seems to be waning since the Relative Strength Index leaves overbought conditions. Critical support is set near $2,900, and a violation of this level can open the doors for a drop towards prior swing lows. Alternatively, if the price succeeds in breaking through resistance near $2,950, it might reflect further upwards progress towards the $3,000 level. FORECAST If gold can break through important resistance levels—particularly around the psychological level of $2,950—then further bullish pressure could push prices to the $3,000 level. Positive global trade trends and ongoing central bank demand for gold could further support investor attitudes, leading to a prolonged rally and cementing the metal’s position as a safe haven. On the other hand, if gold fails to break through these resistance points or if newly released economic data indicates improved risk sentiment, a retracement back to the support level of $2,900 will be seen. A change in market fundamentals, perhaps an enhanced understanding of trade policies or good economic recovery indicators, would result in profit-taking and cause prices to pull back temporarily.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Records All-Time High as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle World Markets

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  • February 19, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) shot up to a new all-time high above $2,945 on Wednesday, extending its upward trend for the third straight day. The bull run was propelled by increased geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump re-emphasized his vow to implement 25% tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and drug imports. Naysays regarding US-Russia tensions, combined with market volatility pre-Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes report, contributed to the allure of gold as an insurance asset. Technicals present a possible challenge in the neighborhood of $2,951 and $2,966, though any dovish undertones the Fed may carry could further move gold towards psychological $3,000. There is still possible reversal, nonetheless, if sentiment responds to the economic data or Fed policy tilt. KEY LOOKOUTS • The threat of 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and drugs inspires market uncertainty and pushes gold to all-time highs. • Federal Reserve January meeting minutes may guide gold’s performance, with speculators looking for clues on next interest rate actions. • Gold is resisted at $2,951 and $2,966, with potential to push further to $3,000 in case of continuous bullish momentum. • Safe-haven demand is boosted by US-Russia tensions and Trump’s hardline on Ukraine, supporting gold prices in the face of worldwide uncertainty. Gold’s record-setting sprint to a new all-time high of over $2,945 shows the market’s responsiveness to economic and geopolitical events. With Trump’s return to tit-for-tat tariffs shaking markets and uncertainty hanging over US-Russia relations, investors are hedging against volatility with gold. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC Minutes release provides further anticipation, as any sign of policy changes could influence market mood. Although gold’s upward trend is still intact, resistance levels around $2,951 and $2,966 may hinder further advances unless a dovish Fed or rising tensions provide further impetus for the rally. Gold rockets above $2,945 on Trump tariff plans and geopolitics. Market direction is now expected from the Fed’s FOMC Minutes. • XAU/USD rockets above $2,945, its third day of advance amidst global uncertainty. • The U.S. President reaffirms 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, heightening market fears. • Trump’s aggressive stance on Ukraine and US-Russia relations further contributes to investor uncertainty, supporting gold’s safe-haven status. • Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting may affect gold’s direction based on signals about interest rate policy. • Gold has strong resistance at $2,951 and $2,966 levels, with possibilities of a run to $3,000. • The 10-year benchmark yield is just shy of 4.56%, affecting the direction of gold as market players determine risk mood. • Koza Altin’s plan to make 40+ tons of gold in five years reflects the industry’s solid demand and prospects for growth. Gold’s rise to an all-time new high is a sign of increasing investor worries on geopolitical tensions and economic policies. The recent gold price boost follows U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirming his decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. The decision has augmented concerns over trade disruption, and investors are resorting to the safety of gold as a safe-haven instrument. Furthermore, Trump’s tough statements on Ukraine have contributed to the uncertainty in the market, particularly after the initial negotiations between U.S. and Russian leaders failed to defuse tensions. In this context, investors and traders continue to pour into gold as a safe-haven asset against economic turmoil.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Beyond geopolitics, market participants are also closely watching the Federal Reserve, as its upcoming FOMC Minutes release could shape future economic policies. While several Fed officials have signaled that interest rates remain at reasonable levels, inflationary concerns persist. Gold’s ongoing strength reflects the broader uncertainty in financial markets, where investors remain cautious about global economic trends. Furthermore, gold demand continues to be strong, with Turkish miner Koza Altin detailing plans to boost production over the next few years. With fears over trade, politics, and monetary policy escalating, gold is still favored as a hedge asset for stability and long-term protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s move through $2,910 has bolstered bullish sentiment, taking prices to a new all-time high above $2,945. The next important resistance points are at $2,951 and $2,966, with a likely push to the psychological $3,000 if purchasing pressure remains. But in case gold meets with rejection near these levels, a retreat to near-term support at $2,921 could happen, and further weakness might follow at $2,906. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating conditions of overbuying, implying a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The next FOMC Minutes release may serve as a pivotal catalyst, deciding whether gold continues its upward move or experiences a short-term retracement. FORECAST Gold’s historic rally above $2,945 has fueled speculation about whether the trend will persist or experience a pullback. If geopolitical tensions rise further, especially with Trump’s belligerent approach to tariffs and Ukraine, gold may experience further upside. Safe-haven demand continues to be robust as investors hedge against economic uncertainty, and any dovish tone by the Federal Reserve in its FOMC Minutes would further push gold towards the psychological $3,000 level. Moreover, ongoing inflation worries and robust central bank purchases across the globe could continue to lend support to gold’s bullishness in the coming days. To the downside, gold is exposed to a near-term correction in case market sentiment changes. The next FOMC Minutes may provide a more sobering interest rate outlook that might dampen gold’s demand. Should the trend in rising bond yields hold, investors will rotate out of gold to move into more attractive-yielding instruments. Lastly, profit-taking at record levels may even cause gold to pull back temporarily, particularly if gold is unable to gain traction above key resistance points. A stronger dollar or positive economic indicators may also weigh on gold, causing possible retracements in the upcoming sessions.

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