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Silver Price Prediction: XAG/USD Continues to Gain with Bullish Momentum, Targets $33.10 Resistance

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  • February 17, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) maintains its bullish momentum, trading at around $32.40 after bouncing off the nine-day EMA at $32.08. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a strong bullish inclination, with the price trending in an upward channel. Solid short-term momentum is indicated by the metal’s status above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. Main levels of resistance are at $33.10 and the four-month high of $33.40, with support at $32.08, $31.85, and $31.60. Breaking below these points could turn the outlook bearish, sending silver lower to the five-month low of $28.74.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver is tested by serious resistance at $33.10, the top of the rising channel, with additional upside potential to $33.40. • The nine-day EMA at $32.08 provides early support, with a breakdown below potentially revealing additional downside to $31.85 and $31.60. • Silver is above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI above 50, providing additional evidence of short-term bullish pressure. • A break decisively above $33.10 might encourage additional gains, with a fall beneath $31.60 potentially shifting sentiment bearish towards December’s five-month low at $28.74. Silver (XAG/USD) continues in bullish mode, trading around $32.40 as it holds above important levels of support such as the nine-day EMA at $32.08. The price remains within an up-sloping channel, the resistance being $33.10 and the additional upside target $33.40. Technical factors, including the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 and the price above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, indicate ongoing strength. A breakdown below $31.60 would, however, undermine the positive outlook, opening silver to further losses to the five-month low set in December at $28.74. The major levels to monitor are these. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading close to $32.40, holding bullish sentiment above significant support levels. A move above $33.10 could indicate further advances, and a fall below $31.60 could break the trend. • Silver is trading close to $32.40, holding a bullish sentiment in an upward channel. • The next resistance is at $33.10, and a breakout could push prices to $33.40. • First support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), followed by $31.85 and $31.60. • Silver is above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI at more than 50, showing strong momentum. • A breakout above $33.10 could propel further advances, while a breakdown below $31.60 might turn sentiment bearish. • If silver breaks below $31.60, it could test the December low of $28.74. • Traders need to watch price action around key levels to gauge future direction and possible breakout opportunities. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to remain in its bull trend, being above major moving averages and trending within an increasing channel. It is currently priced above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), meaning it has great short-term momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the 50 level, showing consistent buying momentum. Resistance appears at $33.10, which sits on the upper edge of the rising channel, then there is a major breakout level at $33.40, its four-month high. If silver manages to break through these resistance points, it may set the stage for additional advances in the sessions ahead.  XAG/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the negative side, the immediate support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), then $31.85 (14-day EMA) and the lower limit of the rising channel at $31.60. A fall below this key area can undermine the bullish scenario, setting the stage for a more extensive retracement towards $28.74, the five-month low of December. But as long as silver stays in the rising channel and above crucial EMAs, the overall trend is still positive. Traders need to keep a close eye on price action around these crucial technical levels to gauge possible breakouts or reversals in the next sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) still shows strong bullish momentum, aided by key technical indicators. The price is still above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), solidifying the rising trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, suggesting continuous buying pressure. Silver is in an upward channel, with resistance at $33.10 and a breakout level at $33.40. On the downside, immediate support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), then at $31.85 (14-day EMA) and $31.60 (channel support). A drop below this level would invalidate the bullish contention, leaving silver vulnerable to further losses towards $28.74, the December low.  FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) is still in a robust bullish trend, with the metal trading above significant technical levels. The metal’s ability to break above the immediate resistance of $33.10 could set the stage for further gains towards the four-month high of $33.40. A continued break over this level can initiate further buying pressure, leading silver to $34.00 and higher. This bullish view is further supported by the price remaining above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still above 50. As long as silver trades within the rising channel, there is every reason for the upward momentum to continue, with fresh highs expected if market sentiment continues to remain bullish. Even with silver’s robust bullish momentum, risks of a decline are present if key support levels are breached. The initial key support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), then $31.85 (14-day EMA) and the lower edge of the rising channel at $31.60. A breach below this key area may undermine the bullish setup and lead to further falls. If silver dips below $31.60, it could come under selling pressure, leaving the price vulnerable to further corrections towards $30.50 and possibly the five-month low of $28.74 in December. Volatility in the market, changes in investor sentiment, or surprise economic data releases may trigger downward movements. Traders must be on their guard and watch these support levels closely for trend reversals.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains on Strong GDP Data, Puts Pressure on USD/JPY Near One-Week Low

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  • February 17, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to hold strong gains after a strong Q4 GDP report supported expectations of more interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Narrowing US-Japan rate difference, combined with persistent weakness of the US Dollar (USD) amid disappointing US retail sales and market skepticism around Trump’s offered reciprocal tariffs, holds the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. Owing to hawkishness offered by the Federal Reserve, offering some support for the USD notwithstanding, the functional bias remains skewed towards JPY bulls, making a further lower direction for the currency pair quite likely. Support levels are key around 151.40 and 150.00, with any bounce being met with resistance at 152.70 and higher.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Solid Q4 GDP growth of 2.8% supports the view that the Bank of Japan will keep tightening monetary policy. • A soft US Retail Sales report and worries over Trump’s retaliatory tariffs keep the USD at a two-month low, bearing down on the USD/JPY pair. • The diminishing gap between US and Japanese interest rates strengthens the Yen, increasing investor confidence in Japan’s currency amid BoJ’s hawkish stance. • USD/JPY faces immediate support near 151.40, with further downside potential toward 150.00, while resistance lies at 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen as robust Q4 GDP data reinforces expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The decline in the US-Japan rate differential and continued US Dollar softness, fueled by soft US Retail Sales data and reservations regarding Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs, maintain the USD/JPY cross close to a one-week low. Although the Federal Reserve’s hard-dollar bias lends some support to the USD, overall sentiment remains in favor of JPY bulls. Critical support for the duo comes around the 151.40 and 150.00 points, whereas any bounce could see stiff resistance near 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen is still strong following positive Q4 GDP numbers, further solidifying BoJ rate hike expectations and putting pressure on USD/JPY around a one-week low. Poor US Retail Sales and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs worries also bear down further on the USD, as key support and resistance levels at 151.40 and 152.70, respectively. • Japan’s Q4 GDP increased by 2.8%, further solidifying hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. • The Japanese Yen holds its ground, driving the USD/JPY pair down as the US Dollar weakens. • A steep 0.9% decline in US retail sales puts further pressure on the USD, dampening investor sentiment. • Uncertainty in the markets regarding Trump’s tariffs plans on US imports is adding to USD weakness and JPY strength. • A narrowing gap between US and Japanese interest rates is further adding to the bullish momentum of the Yen. • USD/JPY is supported close to 151.40 and 150.00, but resistance is found at 152.70 and 154.00. • The USD gets some support from the Fed’s determination to hold rates higher, capping USD/JPY losses deeper than this. The Japanese Yen keeps gaining strength with Japan’s 2.8% Q4 GDP growth increasing hopes of higher rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The constricting US-Japan rate gap, coupled with soft US economic indicators, has held the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. The US Dollar is still under the gun after the sudden 0.9% fall in US retail sales to signal weakening consumer expenditures. Moreover, uncertainty surrounding former President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs has contributed to market uncertainty, which has dampened the USD further. Investors currently expect a stronger Yen in the short term, with major support levels at 151.40 and 150.00. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Even though the USD is weak, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance on interest rates serves as a counterbalance, stopping further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Fed’s hesitation to reduce rates in the near future gives some relief to the USD, but its upside is still limited by prevailing sentiment. The USD/JPY technical levels are being watched closely by traders, with resistance at 152.70 and 154.00, which would see a short-covering rally if broken. Still, with the BoJ tightening measures and a closing rate gap, the bullish momentum in the Yen is set to continue, placing pressure on the currency pair during the next few sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to significant support levels at 151.40, with further downside risk towards the psychological 150.00 level. Daily chart oscillators are still in bearish territory, and the decreasing US-Japan rate gap continues to support the Yen. A slide below 150.90 could further enhance selling pressure, driving the pair towards the 149.60-149.55 range and possibly testing the 149.00 support. On the higher side, any bounce might find stiff resistance at 152.70, which coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A breakout above 153.15 (100-day SMA) may result in a short-covering rally, pushing the pair to 154.00 and the 154.75-154.80 supply area. But since fundamentals favor the Yen, the overall trend will remain bearish unless USD bulls take charge again. FORECAST USD/JPY pair can recover if some conditions are met. A breach above the 152.00 level may propel the pair towards the robust resistance level of 152.70, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A firm breakout above this level might lead to a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the 153.15 region (100-day SMA). If bullish pressure intensifies, the subsequent target is around the 154.00 psychological level, then the 154.45-154.50 supply zone. Another push higher might have the pair retracing last week’s high in the vicinity of the 154.75-154.80 area, if the US Dollar regains power on the back of aggressive Federal Reserve policy or improved risk appetite for global markets. USD/JPY remains below 152.00, with near-term support around 151.40-151.45. A break below here might trigger selling pressure faster, taking the pair down to 150.90, which is the lowest level since December 10. Further falls might test the psychological 150.00, with longer losses making the descent towards the support

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidation Near Multi-Week Highs with Bullish Potential

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  • February 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting around a multi-week high, just below the psychological 1.0500 level, after its sharp appreciation last week. The technical environment still favors bulls, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and positive oscillators offering scope for further upside. A close above 1.0545-1.0555 may set the stage for further gains towards 1.0600 and higher. But if the pair does not hold 1.0465, it might lead to a drop to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s, with momentum returning to the bears. Traders can monitor key support and resistance levels for possible breakout or retracement strategies. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakout above this confluence area, including the 50% Fibonacci level and 100-day EMA, could propel EUR/USD towards the 1.0600 level. • A firm breakdown below this 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level may indicate weakness, pulling EUR/USD down to 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s in the near future. • A weaker US Dollar still favors the pair’s upward momentum, but any reversal of USD strength may limit gains and initiate fresh falls. • If EUR/USD breaks above the December 2024 swing high, it could confirm an extension of the bullish trend, paving the way for a long-term recovery from multi-year lows. The EUR/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation at its multi-week high, just below the 1.0500 level as investors weigh their next move. The technical bias is bullish, and a possible breakout above the resistance zone of 1.0545-1.0555, which contains the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 100-day EMA, may push the pair to 1.0600 and 1.0630. However, a drop below the support level of 1.0465 may change the trend in favor of the bears, driving the pair lower to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s. The performance of the US Dollar continues to be a prime driver, and any revival in greenback demand has the potential to cap EUR/USD gains or initiate a slide. These levels need to be watched closely by traders to understand the pair’s next move. The EUR/USD pair consolidates below 1.0500, with bullish potential if it breaks above 1.0545-1.0555, heading towards 1.0600. A fall below 1.0465 could lead to further losses towards 1.0400. The US Dollar’s movement continues to be the most important factor in deciding the pair’s next direction. • EUR/USD is trapped in a narrow range close to a multi-week high, unable to break above the crucial 1.0500 psychological level. • Upbeat oscillators and a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are in favor of additional upside momentum. • A breakout above this confluence area (50% Fibonacci retracement + 100-day EMA) may drive EUR/USD towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. • Sustaining above this level is vital for maintaining bullish momentum; a break below could initiate losses towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. • Softer US Dollar is bullish for EUR/USD, but rebound in USD strength could cap further upside. • Failure of support at 1.0465 could lead to increased selling pressure, focusing attention on 1.0200 in a further bearish continuation. • Market participants need to watch price closely around key levels to validate a breakout above 1.0545 or a breakdown below 1.0465 for clear trend direction. The EUR/USD currency pair remains cautiously bullish with solid technical support at 1.0465 serving as an important level to the buyers. A move through the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100-day EMA, may validate further higher potential. With the pair trading above this band, the following targets would include 1.0600 and 1.0630, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies. A successful break above these levels could prolong the recent upturn to 1.0700, further bolstering the uptrend. Optimistic momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD favor this case, indicating bulls might try to regain higher levels in the short term. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But the bear risks persist if EUR/USD cannot hold the 1.0465 support level. A decisive break below this point could signal weakness, dragging the pair toward the 1.0400 psychological level and further down to the mid-1.0300s, which align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deeper sell-off could see EUR/USD testing 1.0200, especially if the US Dollar strengthens due to hawkish Federal Reserve policies or better-than-expected US economic data. Traders must monitor market sentiment and major economic releases, as any change in the strength of the USD would significantly impact the pair’s next significant move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is maintaining its position close to a multi-week high, with the price action being supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January downtrend. The daily chart oscillators are still in positive territory, indicating bullish momentum. A clean break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day EMA, may drive the pair towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. The 1.0465 level is immediate support on the downside, and a fall below this level could trigger falls towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. The 200-day EMA and support trendline will also be responsible for identifying the next direction. Breakout confirmations above resistance or below support should be looked out for by traders to gauge the pair’s next trend. FORECAST The EUR/USD pair will remain bullish as long as it remains above the 1.0465 support level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance level, which encompasses the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day EMA, would propel it further up. In case the pair manages to hold its ground past this area, the next trigger would be 1.0600, then the 1.0630 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is present. A continued rally above this level may prolong the recent upturn, and the pair may move towards 1.0700 in the next few weeks. But for the bullish trend to gain momentum, the buyers must overcome these resistance levels with good volume and strength. On the other hand, a failure to stay above the 1.0465 support level may turn the tide in favor of the bears. A clean break below this

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises to Two-Month High: Weaker US Dollar and Optimism in Markets Fuel Gains

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  • February 17, 2025
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NZD/USD is on its third day of rise, hitting a two-month high of about 0.5750 as the US Dollar stays weak. The Greenback continues to face pressure following weak US Retail Sales data and a delay in Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, which have weakened investor mood. Meanwhile, hope for Trump’s strategy to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis contributes to the risk-on atmosphere, further backing the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and the anticipation of a major rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may limit further increases. Technically, last week’s break above 0.5700 reinforces the bullish scenario, and any short-term corrections offer a chance to buy on the cheap before the key RBNZ meeting. KEY LOOKOUTS        • The US Dollar is still under pressure from dismal Retail Sales and a hold-up in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, solidifying NZD/USD advances. • Optimism over Trump’s suggested solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosts market mood, giving strength to the Kiwi against the Greenback. • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive tone is counter to hopes of a large rate cut by the RBNZ, which could limit NZD/USD’s rally. • Last week’s break above the 0.5700 level adds to bullish momentum, setting NZD/USD up for further gains unless market conditions turn unexpectedly. NZD/USD gains momentum, rising to a two-month high with the US Dollar weakening in the face of soft Retail Sales and the hold-up of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The pair gets support from upbeat market mood following the hopes over Trump’s efforts in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, the widening gap between the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s planned rate reductions might cap additional gains. Technically, the break higher last week above 0.5700 supports a bullish view, and any near-term pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity prior to the important RBNZ meeting. NZD/USD rises to a two-month peak on back of persistent USD weakness and improved market mood. Yet Fed-RBNZ policy divergence could restrict further upside scope. • The pair maintains its upward momentum to around 0.5750 in the wake of persistent USD weakness. • Frustrating US retail sales and delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain to keep Greenback under the pump. • Positive sentiment with respect to how Trump is containing the Russia-Ukraine war bolsters NZD/USD’s strength. • The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve in comparison to hoped-for major cut by the RBNZ later can limit NZD/USD’s gains. • Last week’s break higher past the level of 0.5700 maintains the upside story for NZD/USD. • Any near-term correction would be a buying opportunity before the key RBNZ meeting. • The RBNZ meeting and additional US economic data releases will determine NZD/USD’s next direction. NZD/USD continues its bullish trend after breaching the key 0.5700 resistance level, reaffirming a strong bull trend. The breakout indicates additional upside potential, with the next target at 0.5800. The duo is still comfortably above major moving averages, indicating persistent buying pressure. Moreover, the recent price action also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the bullishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought levels, which may indicate a short-term pullback, but overall, the uptrend is intact as long as the price is above the 0.5700 support level. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA A corrective pullback should find support around 0.5700, a level that was resistance in the past and can now act as a solid floor for buyers. Below this, further support can be found around 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a break above 0.5750 should see further buying, driving the pair to 0.5800 and beyond. However, traders should exercise caution as the upcoming RBNZ meeting could introduce volatility, potentially influencing the Kiwi’s trajectory. Overall, the technical outlook favors the bulls, but market participants should watch for any fundamental shifts that could alter the trend. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has strengthened its bullish outlook after breaking above the key 0.5700 resistance level last week. This breakout indicates strong buying momentum, with the next potential upside target around 0.5800. The duo is trading above significant moving averages, maintaining a bullish inclination, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around overbought levels, which may result in a short-term correction. But any correction will find support at 0.5700, which has become a critical support level. Further appreciation will be seen if buyers continue to drive the prices higher, but care is to be exercised before the RBNZ meeting, which may create volatility. FORECAST NZD/USD’s recent break above the 0.5700 resistance line is a bullish indication of firm buying pressure, and there could be more to go if such momentum is maintained. A strong continuation above 0.5750 could open the door to testing the psychological level of 0.5800, which will serve as the next hurdle. If the bullish trend continues, the pair may even push higher to 0.5850, particularly if the US Dollar stays soft in the wake of softer economic information or a dovish Fed prognosis. Favorable risk attitudes and optimism over developments in geopolitics would also play in favor of the Kiwi, further augmenting its strength against the Greenback in the near term. In spite of the bullish inclination, NZD/USD is still susceptible to possible pullbacks, particularly if the next RBNZ meeting indicates aggressive rate cuts, which would soften the Kiwi. A breakdown below the 0.5700 support level may initiate a more significant correction, with the next significant support at 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. If selling pressure increases, the pair may fall towards 0.5600, where buyers might try to stem further losses. Furthermore, any US Dollar rebound, as a result of hawkish Fed statements or more robust than anticipated economic numbers, may cap NZD/USD’s upside and reverse momentum in favor of the bears.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Consolidates Above 1.4300: Will the Rectangle Pattern Hold or Break?

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  • February 7, 2025
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The USD/CAD pair remains in a consolidation phase above the 1.4300 level, forming a rectangular pattern that keeps traders uncertain about its next move. The pair continues trading below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which reinforces a bearish sentiment with weak short-term momentum. The 14-day RSI is also below the 50 mark, indicating persistent negative pressure. The immediate support stands at 1.4300, and there is a possible drop to 1.4280 if bearish momentum continues to strengthen. On the other hand, a breakout towards 1.4530 may be determined by the resistance at 1.4372 (nine-day EMA) and 1.4381 (14-day EMA). A breakout above or below these key levels will probably define the next direction for USD/CAD. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakdown beneath the key level might strengthen the impulse towards the bears and thrust USD/CAD to a psychological support level around 1.4200. • Breaking above 14-day EMA will likely revert the mood to being bullish and take prices towards the rectangle’s top boundary at 1.4530. • The 14-day RSI remains below the 50-bar mark, indicating weak momentum and favoring the downside in the short run as well. • A breakout above the nine- and 14-day EMAs could trigger bullish sentiment, supporting an upward move towards 1.4530. The USD/CAD pair remains at a critical juncture as it consolidates within a rectangular pattern, with traders closely monitoring key technical levels. The immediate support at 1.4280 is crucial, as a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum toward 1.4200. On the other hand, there is resistance at 1.4381 marked by the 14-day EMA, which is the important barrier for buyers, and a breakout above this level may drive the pair up to 1.4530. The 14-day RSI stands below the 50 mark, strengthening weak momentum and downside risks. Further, the crossing of the nine- and 14-day EMAs can also be an indicator of the shift in the sentiment. It would then be very important to observe a break-out beyond the same. The USD/CAD pair is consolidating in a rectangular pattern. There is a significant support at 1.4280 and resistance at 1.4381. A move below may add more strength to the bears, while a move above the EMAs could create a rally to 1.4530. Traders must keep an eye on the RSI and EMA crossover for a possible change in trend. • A move below this level may add more bearish pressure, pushing the USD/CAD toward the psychological support at 1.4200. • The 14-day EMA is a very strong resistance point. A close above would see the pair pushing toward 1.4530. • The USD/CAD pair remains under the nine- and 14-day EMAs, and momentum remains weak with the selling pressure continuing. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index is also below the 50 mark and strengthens the bears while also implying that buying is weak. • The pair is consolidating within a rectangular range and a break in either direction would most likely set the next trend. • The pair hovers about the psychological support level; trading above it sustainably could limit downside risks. • A breach of the nine- and 14-day EMAs could easily shift the sentiment bullish and signal potential upside momentum. USD/CAD is still consolidating within a rectangular pattern and is showing very weak short-term price action by not being able to break down or break out with a clear directional bias. The important level at 1.4280 acts as key support and if it breaks down then it may accelerate down towards the psychological level of 1.4200. Again, the currency pair still trades below the nine and 14-day EMAs while maintaining a bearish sentiment. The 14-day RSI consolidates below the 50 mark, further indicating continued selling pressure. Traders are closely monitoring whether the pair will hold above 1.4300 as this psychological level could serve as an anchor for a potential rebound. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Resistance levels on the upside include the nine-day EMA at 1.4372 and then the 14-day EMA at 1.4381. A breakout above these levels would strengthen short-term momentum and drive USD/CAD towards the rectangle’s upper boundary at 1.4530. The EMA crossover will be a good trend reversal indicator as a decisive move above will shift sentiment bullish. Until then, the pair remains in consolidation mode, with traders waiting for a strong breakout to determine the next major move. The rectangular range remains intact, making it essential to monitor both support and resistance levels for a clearer market direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD indicates consolidation within a rectangular pattern, highlighting market indecision. The pair remains below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing a bearish sentiment with weak short-term momentum. The 14-day RSI stays below the 50 mark, signaling continued selling pressure and a lack of strong buying interest. Immediate support is at 1.4280, and a breakdown below this level could push the pair toward the psychological 1.4200 zone. On the upside, resistance at 1.4372 (nine-day EMA) and 1.4381 (14-day EMA) remains crucial, with a breakout above these levels potentially triggering an upward move toward 1.4530. Traders should watch for a decisive move beyond these levels to determine the next trend direction. FORECAST The USD/CAD pair has a potential upward move if it will break above these key resistance levels. The immediate overhead will be at the nine-day EMA at 1.4372 and the 14-day EMA at 1.4381. A breakout above these levels may show renewed bullish momentum that could continue to propel the pair to the upper boundary of the rectangle at 1.4530. Additional strength in the U.S. dollar or a recovery in crude oil prices affecting the Canadian dollar can drive further advances. If the bullish mood is strengthened, USD/CAD may target the next psychological resistance at 1.4600, which can give traders opportunities to go long. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.4300, but a critical lower boundary is at 1.4280. A break below this level could intensify selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the psychological support at 1.4200. Further bearish momentum, supported by

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Surges on Waning Trade War Risks and ECB Rate Cut Expectations

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  • February 5, 2025
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EUR/USD is trading above 1.0400 as the US Dollar drops on the back of dwindling fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China. The investors are of the view that the extent of the trade war will remain restricted, thereby easing the risk premium on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates, reinforcing market speculation about further policy easing. Even though the Euro underperformed against other major currencies, EUR/USD continues to gain as traders focus on upcoming US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI. Technical indicators are showing cautionary signals; however, important resistance lies at 1.0500, while support stands close to 1.0177, so the pair is in a vulnerable recovery phase. KEY LOOKOUTS • US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for January would have implications on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. • The European Central Bank is expected to continue reducing interest rates, with traders pricing in three more rate cuts in upcoming policy meetings. • Market sentiment remains cautious as the US and China impose tariffs, though investors believe the trade war will not escalate further globally. • EUR/USD faces key resistance at 1.0500, while major support levels lie at 1.0177 and 1.0100, shaping the pair’s near-term price action. Investors are keeping a close eye on key developments affecting EUR/USD, such as US economic data releases due in the coming days, like the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which may help guide the Federal Reserve’s policy course. On the other hand, the European Central Bank continues to cut interest rates, with the market awaiting more cuts given its confidence in inflation returning to target levels. Trade tensions between the US and China remain a problem, but the relatively narrow scope of the situation had pushed fears over a full-scale global trade war to the backburner, diminishing the risk premium on the US Dollar. In technical terms, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a critical resistance level at 1.0500 and may find support at 1.0177 and 1.0100 to determine the next direction. EUR/USD continues to gain as fears of a trade war ease and ECB rate-cut expectations weigh on the US Dollar. Investors await key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which could influence the Fed’s policy stance. Meanwhile, technical resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177 will shape the pair’s near-term direction. • The pair goes higher as the US Dollar weakens on the back of more alleviated trade war concerns and reduced risk premium. • US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI would be out and could impact the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. • Interest rate cuts are expected by the European Central Bank and monetary policy easing is already priced in the markets. • Investors believe that the trade war will not spread across the globe and see fears of an economic slowdown. • President Trump lets loose on the EU: Tariffs are in the cards. Adds to EUR’s unclear direction. • The level remains a strong barrier for EUR/USD, and a breach above can be seen as a further sign of bullish strength. • These levels become significant support downwards, and their breach can be used as a sign of renewed bearish pressure on the pair. It is now a fledging currency as EUR/USD surged above 1.0400 after a weak US Dollar amid slight improvements in the trade war concerns and eventually in wait of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Investors are keenly awaiting key US economic data, including ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which may provide direction to future policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined as market participants assume that the trade war between the US and China will remain limited in scope, reducing the Greenback’s risk premium. However, concerns persist about potential tariff threats from President Trump on the European Union, which could impact the Euro’s stability in the coming weeks. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the technical front, EUR/USD faces significant resistance at the 1.0500 level, which, if breached, could signal further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, key support levels at 1.0177 and 1.0100 provide downside protection, with a break below these points potentially leading to renewed bearish pressure. The European Central Bank’s continued monetary easing stance has also weighed on the Euro, as traders anticipate further rate cuts to support economic stability. As investors find their way through these macroeconomic and geopolitical changes, EUR/USD continues to trade in a volatile range, waiting for more directional signals from upcoming economic data and policy decisions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a cautious recovery mode, trading just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0440, which indicates that the trend is still bearish. The pair is facing strong resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500, and a decisive break above this could trigger further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the neutral 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias. On the downside, key support levels are observed at 1.0177 and 1.0100, with a break below these levels potentially leading to increased bearish pressure. EUR/USD remains stuck in a trading range as the market fundamentals continue to be analyzed by traders and wait for the right trigger that will take the currency pair on its next major move. FORECAST If EUR/USD breaks above 1.0500, there is still potential for further gains. A continuation of the trend beyond this point could lead to a bullish surge to the psychological resistance at 1.0600. Positive Eurozone economic data in combination with a softer US Dollar, which is being traded down on expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut rates, may continue fueling buying. Moreover, if risk-on sentiments persist and concerns of trade tensions between US and China keep dwindling, investors may prefer the Euro, hence continuing to

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Continues Trading at 27-Month Lows: Can the Bearish Trend Be Continued?

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  • February 3, 2025
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The EUR/USD pair has been trending lower, trading at 27-month lows as bearish momentum continues to gain ground. Trapped in a downward channel pattern, the pair experiences continuous selling pressure, and the 14-day RSI is close to reaching the oversold level of 30. According to technical indicators, EUR/USD is still below the nine- and 14-day EMAs. The support level at 1.0177 is at risk, and a break below could send the pair to the psychological level of 1.0000 or even 0.9730. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.0369, with further gains possible if the pair breaks above 1.0500. Until then, the bearish outlook dominates the market sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • A drop below this important support could push the bearish momentum, which may send EUR/USD towards the psychological level of 1.0000. • The pair is still in a downtrend, with resistance at 1.0369 and upside potential only if it breaks above 1.0500. • The 14-day RSI approaching 30 shows persistent selling pressure, and more downside movement may be expected. • EUR/USD remains below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, reinforcing the bearish outlook and signaling weak short-term momentum. The EUR/USD pair remains under strong bearish pressure, trading near a 27-month low as it continues its descent within a well-defined downward channel. Key technical indicators, such as the 14-day RSI approaching the oversold level of 30, suggest persistent selling momentum. The pair is struggling below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which is further emphasizing the weak short-term outlook. The critical support at 1.0177 remains in focus, and a break below could send the pair towards the psychological 1.0000 mark or even lower. On the upside, resistance at 1.0369 needs to be breached for any signs of recovery, with a potential move towards 1.0500 if bullish momentum strengthens. EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure and trades near a 27-month low within a descending channel. A break below 1.0177 can push it towards 1.0000. Resistance at 1.0369 must be broken for any recovery signs to appear. • EUR/USD remains in a descending channel and trades near a 27-month low with persistent selling pressure. • A break below this level can accelerate the losses, which may push the pair towards the psychological 1.0000 mark. • The 14-day RSI is near 30, which is a strong bearish signal and could lead to further downward movement. • The pair is trading below the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which strengthens weak short-term momentum. • If the downtrend continues, EUR/USD may continue to fall to the lowest level since November 2022. • A breakout above this level may lead to a short-term rally to 1.0500. • Until a strong reversal signal emerges, the overall trend for EUR/USD remains in favor of sellers rather than buyers. EUR/USD is still sliding downwards, with pressure near a 27-month low as the bearish forces remain dominant in the market. The pair remains in a descending channel, and technical indicators support the weak outlook. The 14-day RSI is approaching the oversold level of 30, indicating further selling pressure. Moreover, EUR/USD is traded below both the nine- and 14-day EMAs, which indicates a lack of short-term strength. An important support level at 1.0177 is in the spotlight, and if broken, the pair could drop further toward the psychological level of 1.0000 or even 0.9730, which was its lowest since November 2022. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Sources: TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the upside, the first resistance level to look out for is at 1.0369, where the nine-day EMA is located. A breakout above this level may give way to a short-term bounce that sends the pair towards the 1.0500 level, which marks the upper end of the descending channel. Bullish momentum might push the next target towards the three-month high of 1.0630. Still, the overall sentiment in the market is bearish, and the sellers continue to be in charge of the EUR/USD’s price action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair has shown a very strong bearish trend. Here, the price is being restricted in a declining channel. It is near the oversold level of 30 as per the 14-day RSI. It means there is consistent selling pressure in the market. Further, the pair is trading below both nine and 14-day EMAs. The primary support is seen at 1.0177, and a break below that level could take the pair towards 1.0000 or even 0.9730. On the upside, a break above the resistance level of 1.0369 will be required for any recovery to take place, with further targets at 1.0500 and 1.0630. Until such time as a breakout takes place, the overall outlook remains bearish. FORECAST Although the prevailing bearish outlook exists, a recovery is possible if EUR/USD manages to break above key resistance levels. The first hurdle comes at 1.0369, the position of the nine-day EMA. A clear breakout above that level might propel the pair towards 1.0500, which falls within the boundaries of the declining channel. Stronger bullish momentum may take it all the way to the three-month high at 1.0630, though this requires the buying interest and market psychology to be well-sustained for a true turnaround. The EUR/USD pair stays under heavy bearish pressure with key indicators looking for a potential move down. The price stays within a bearish channel. The 14-day RSI is also touching the over-sold region at 30 and still pointing downward, suggesting continuous selling momentum. If the price breaks below a crucial support area at 1.0177, then this may increase its losses further and push the prices toward the psychological mark of 1.0000. A further split would see EUR/USD test 0.9730, its lowest point since November 2022, to increase bearishness in the market.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen’s Tug of War: BoJ Rate Hike Bets vs. USD Strength Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

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  • January 31, 2025
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The Japanese Yen is in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish camps, as expectations of more rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) clash with the strength of the US Dollar (USD). Latest statistics showing increasing inflation and strong industrial production in Japan will also give further justification to further monetary tightening, which makes the Yen resistant. However, geopolitical tensions are still in the limelight: rising tensions at the Sea of Japan and continued US trade policy uncertainties, making market sentiment very fragile. Low price action for the USD and anticipation of the US PCE Price Index report will cap further gains in the USD/JPY pair. While technical indicators suggest downside risks toward the 153.00 level, a breakout above the 155.00 mark could trigger a short-covering rally, potentially shifting the near-term bias in favor of the bulls. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rising Tokyo CPI and robust economic data fuel expectations of further BoJ tightening, supporting the Yen against excessive depreciation. • Russian military activity near Japan and uncertainties in US trade policies could raise safe-haven demand for the JPY, influencing its short-term movement. • Watch out for this preferred inflation gauge of the Fed, as it may dictate further strength in USD strength and next move in USD/JPY. • A break below 153.00 could confirm further downside, and sustained strength above 155.00 might encourage a bullish breakout in USD/JPY. The trajectory of the Japanese Yen continues to be shaped by a mix of domestic economic indicators, global geopolitical developments, and US monetary policy expectations. The strength in Tokyo CPI and robust industrial growth enhance the probability of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes, which should continue to underpin the JPY. Geopolitical risks, however, such as Russian military activities near Japan and trade tensions between the US, add layers of uncertainty, potentially boosting safe-haven demand. All eyes are on the US PCE Price Index, which is an important indicator for Federal Reserve policy direction, and may influence USD strength and subsequently USD/JPY movements. From a technical perspective, a breakdown below 153.00 could trigger further losses for the pair, while sustained momentum above the 155.00 level may fuel a bullish rally. The Japanese Yen remains under pressure despite expectations of further BoJ rate hikes, supported by rising inflation and strong economic data. Geopolitical tensions and US trade policies add uncertainty, while the upcoming US PCE inflation data could influence USD/JPY movements. A break below 153.00 may signal further downside, while sustained gains above 155.00 could trigger a bullish rally. • Higher Tokyo CPI and robust industrial growth feed into speculation that the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy, supporting the Yen. • Russian military move closer to Japan and US trade policies introduce uncertainty which could increase safe havens for JPY. • The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation measure remains in focus for its effects on USD strength and the movement of USD/JPY. • The latest US GDP data showed a decline in growth, which may influence Fed policy and overall market sentiment. • A drop below 153.00 could signal further losses, while a sustained move above 155.00 may trigger a bullish breakout. • US President Donald Trump’s threats of higher tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and BRICS nations could impact global markets and JPY’s safe-haven appeal. • Higher Treasury yields, which are fueled by inflation fears, are supportive for the USD. Expectations for Fed policy are critical going forward for USD/JPY. The Japanese Yen remains trapped in a gossamer balance between BoJ rate hike expectations and greater global economic forces. Recent data show a rise in Tokyo’s CPI and strong industrial production, hinting that the central bank of Japan will be on its course toward policy normalization. This boosts the Yen from excessive depreciation. However, there are geopolitical risks, such as Russian military activities near Japan, and trade tensions between the US and other nations, which leave market sentiment unsure. US President Donald Trump’s warnings of a potential hike in tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and BRICS could trigger volatility in the markets. The latter is likely to raise safe haven demand for JPY. USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA However, attention now turns to US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index that can be taken as the preferred measure of inflation at the Fed’s end and influence the USD strength. A stronger-than-expected reading should reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative, sending USD/JPY higher, and a softer reading should cap upside for the Dollar. Another issue is that the US economy also slowed in Q4, thus economic momentum-related concerns should begin to factor in market expectations as well. On the technical side, levels to watch are support near 153.00, where a collapse could speed losses, and resistance at 155.00, where a sustained move above could trigger a bullish breakout. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY now stands at a critical juncture that depicts both key support and resistance in dictating its next move. A protracted break below 153.00 could accelerate selling, which in turn would likely send the currency pair lower again to the range of 152.40 to 152.00. From there, possible support is a 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If on the other hand, USD/JPY breaks above the strong resistance of 154.50 and through 155.00 psychological, which is considered quite a big milestone, it is likely to unlock a bullish run. Further upside may drive the pair towards 155.40-155.45, with a further extension to 156.00 and the weekly high of 156.25. Oscillators on the daily chart are gaining negative traction but remain outside the oversold zone, which suggests room for further correction unless strong buying momentum emerges. FORECAST USD/JPY remains intact if the pair manages to sustain above the 154.50 level, with the next major hurdle being the 155.00 psychological mark. A decisive breakout above this level may trigger fresh impetus for bulls, to attain further gains towards 155.40-155.45. Further buying pressure may take the pair up to about 156.00 and even attack the 156.25 weekly high. Freshly built strength of the

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Falls Amid US Dollar Strength and Market Uncertainty: Fed-ECB Policy Decisions in Focus

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  • January 28, 2025
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EUR/USD fell sharply to around 1.0420 after the US dollar gained strength amid a risk-off environment fueled by a global sell-off in technology and data center stocks. The safe-haven appeal of the Greenback has surged on account of uncertainty regarding US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposed universal tariff plan and the impending monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The Fed is expected to hold interest rates unchanged while the ECB is expected to cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 bps, with a rather dismal Eurozone economic outlook. Investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments for future policy guidance and potential impacts of US tariffs. Key technical levels for EUR/USD include support near 1.0266 and resistance around 1.0630, with the pair trading cautiously near its 50-day EMA at 1.0456. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will be looking to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the European Central Bank’s expected 25 bps rate cut for direction. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) shoots up to nearly 108.00, with global risk-off sentiment influencing EUR/USD and promoting cautious trading in the currency pair. • The uncertainty over the proposed 2.5% universal tariff hike is fueling market volatility and affecting global trade dynamics and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Key support for EUR/USD lies near 1.0266, while resistance is at 1.0630, with the pair struggling to hold above its 50-day EMA around 1.0456. EUR/USD continues to face pressure, falling near 1.0420 as the US Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand amid a global sell-off in technology stocks and uncertainty over US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposed universal tariff hike. Market participants are focused on this week’s monetary policy decisions, with the Fed likely to hold rates steady and the European Central Bank most likely to cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points due to the latest sluggish Eurozone economy. The two most important items investors are following are Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conferences for insight into future monetary policy and the effect Trump’s tariff plan will have on the global economic outlook. Key technical levels, which include support at 1.0266 and resistance near 1.0630, will set the course of EUR/USD in the short term. EUR/USD falls to around 1.0420 as the US Dollar gains strength in a risk-off environment and global market sell-offs. Investors are looking for Fed and ECB policy decisions for future direction. Key support is at 1.0266, while resistance is near 1.0630. • The pair fell sharply to around 1.0420 as the US Dollar gained strength in a risk-off environment. • The DXY jumped to 108.00 as global sell-offs in technology and data center stocks have amplified the ‘Safe Haven’ appeal. • The Feds are expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Focus is on the Jerome Powell ‘Press Conference’ for future guidance. • The European Central Bank is expected to cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 bps due to the poor Eurozone economic outlook. • Uncertainty over US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s proposal for a 2.5% universal tariff hike adds to market volatility. •EUR/USD struggles near the 50-day EMA of 1.0456, with key support at 1.0266 and resistance around 1.0630. • Markets remain cautious, closely monitoring global economic policies and central bank decisions for future market direction. EUR/USD has declined sharply to around 1.0420 after the US Dollar went on a risk-off rally with global sell-offs in technology and data center stocks. The DXY rallied to 108.00 and was also inspired by the safe-haven trend due to some increased market uncertainty. The world is still watching monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. While the Fed is anticipated to keep their interest rates where they are now, markets eagerly await Jerome Powell’s press conference for any forward guidance. On the other hand, the ECB is expected to lower its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points, reflecting poor Eurozone economic performance and inflationary pressures returning to target. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The uncertainty surrounding a universal tariff plan by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for a 2.5% hike and later increase has only added to market volatility. As a result of the plan, alongside weak investor sentiment, the Euro lost its grounds. According to key technical levels, it can be determined that EUR/USD is supporting at 1.0266, however, resistance stays at 1.0630. The pair now trades near the 50-day EMA that stands at 1.0456. As markets await clarity from central banks and potential impacts of the US tariff plan, cautious trading is likely to persist, leaving EUR/USD vulnerable to further fluctuations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is struggling to maintain momentum above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently trades near 1.0456. The pair has failed to sustain gains above the key resistance level of 1.0530, signaling bearish pressure. On the flip side, critical support is observed around 1.0266 where the January 20 low locates, which further supports bearishness following the downward-sloping trend from the September 2024 high that recorded 1.1209. The14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is situated below the crucial hurdle of 60.00, indicating the trend is generally sideways with a bearish bias. A drop below 1.0390, the 20-day EMA, would accelerate the bears, while a strong breakout above 1.0630 would be required to allow bulls to take over. FORECAST If EUR/USD is to recover now, it needs to break above the immediate resistance level 1.0530, which has acted as a stubborn barrier in last few sessions. Once this level breaks away from the pair’s back, it will then open the way up towards the December 6th high of 1.0630. If it succeeds in breaking this strong resistance area, the pair may sustain further buying on board, targeting the psychological level of 1.0700. The stock market reaction of positive ECB developments, such as a less dovish tone from President Christine Lagarde, will be more fuel

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