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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Suffers Moderate Losses Versus USD but Bulls Expect Hopes for Trade Deal and BoJ Policy Divergence

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  • April 15, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) is suffering moderate intraday losses versus the US Dollar (USD), with market optimism on US President Donald Trump’s tariff relief and an upbeat risk mood eroding the safe-haven demand for the Yen. Yet, fears of the US-China trade war, coupled with expectations of a US-Japan trade agreement, offer some relief to the JPY. Moreover, the differing monetary stances of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) also restrict the downside for the Yen, as investors expect BoJ rate increases with increasing domestic inflation, while the Fed is likely to cut rates because of the economic fallout from tariffs. Technical levels indicate that while the USD/JPY pair can encounter resistance near 144.00, any prolonged weakness below 143.00 might induce bearish momentum towards major support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Expectations of a favorable result from on-going trade talks between the US and Japan can be a tailwind for the Japanese Yen and could counter the general market optimism surrounding risk assets. •  The Bank of Japan’s anticipated rate hikes compared to the Federal Reserve’s possible rate reductions based on the economic impact of tariffs may constrain the downside for JPY and cap the USD/JPY pair. •  The tariff choices made by President Trump, such as possible exemptions in the auto industry and electronics sector, and a threat of increased levies to industries like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, will persist in shaping sentiment in the market and the future outlook for the USD/JPY. •  Critical technical levels to monitor are resistance around 144.00, with a breakout above that having the potential to spark a rally, while failure below 143.00 would have the potential to trigger additional bearish pressure towards the 142.00 and 141.00 marks. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is experiencing modest losses against the US Dollar (USD) because of a favorable market risk tone and US President Donald Trump’s tariff relief, which reduces the Yen’s safe-haven appeal. Nevertheless, apprehensions regarding the US-China trade war and rising expectations of a US-Japan trade deal are assisting in capping the Yen’s decline. In addition, the mismatch between Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) policies, where market expectations are for BoJ rate hikes and possible Fed rate cuts, provides additional support for the JPY. With key events expected in trade negotiations and central bank decisions, technical levels are also emerging as significant, with resistance at 144.00 and support at 142.00 likely to influence the USD/JPY pair’s future directions. The Japanese Yen is seeing moderate losses against the US Dollar, fueled by a risk-positive tone and US reprieves on tariffs, but fears of the US-China trade war and optimism over a US-Japan trade agreement are capping the downside. The difference in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan is further underpinning the Yen. •  The Japanese Yen is experiencing moderate losses against the US Dollar because of more favorable market sentiment and lower demand for safe-haven assets. •  US President Trump’s short-term exemption of consumer electronics and possible auto industry exemptions from tariffs have strengthened market optimism, influencing the strength of the Yen. • Continued worries regarding the intensifying US-China trade war remain a drag on global growth expectations, supporting the JPY to some extent as a safe-haven currency. • Optimism regarding a favorable outcome in US-Japan trade talks is serving as a tailwind for the Yen, countering wider USD strength. • The Bank of Japan will likely increase interest rates, and the Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates as a result of economic effects from tariffs, which will support the Yen against the USD. • The USD/JPY pair has resistance at the 144.00 level, with additional upside limited unless the pair breaks above this level and maintains higher momentum. • The Japanese Yen is supported at 142.00, and additional weakness will take the USD/JPY currency pair towards 141.00, which can be considered as a sign of bearish sentiment if broken. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weakening against the US Dollar (USD) owing to a positive risk sentiment in the market and a decrease in safe-haven demand. This follows as US President Donald Trump issued temporary exemptions for consumer electronics and suggested potential leniency towards the auto sector in terms of tariffs, which has boosted market sentiment and put pressure on the Yen. Meanwhile, fears of the US-China trade war and expectations that Japan might reach a trade agreement with the US continue to offer some support for the Japanese currency, capping its losses. USD/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Besides, the differential monetary policy between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is key in determining the prospects for the Yen. While the BoJ is likely to hike interest rates because of surging domestic inflation, the Fed can trim rates because of the economic effect of continued tariffs. This difference in central bank policies indicates that the Yen can gain from the BoJ’s tightening policy while the US Dollar is under pressure from the Fed’s possible easing policies. As the US-Japan trade negotiations progress, the future direction of the Yen will be heavily dependent on the overall economic developments and monetary policy actions of both countries. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is struggling with important resistance around the 144.00 level, where any move higher may face serious obstacles. If the pair is able to break above this, then it has the potential to unleash a short-covering rally and drive prices towards the 144.45-144.50 levels, and possibly beyond to the 145.00 psychological mark. On the flip side, if the pair drops below 143.00, then the support would presumably come from the 142.25-142.20 region, and a breach below this level would pave the way for a subsequent fall towards the 142.00 level. A plunge below this level of support could indicate a bearish trend, and targets would extend to 141.65-141.60 and possibly lower. FORECAST USD/JPY pair may witness bullish movement if it breaches the 144.00 resistance level. A consistent push beyond this point

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Commodities Oil – US Crude

WTI Crude Oil Increases on Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Stimulus Plans

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  • March 18, 2025
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices inched higher above $67.00 during early Asian trading on Tuesday, fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and upbeat economic news from China. The US military attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen persisting after recent attacks on US warships have further raised energy supply route worries in the Red Sea, increasing transportation and oil prices. At the same time, China’s new economic stimulus proposals to revive domestic consumption and calm markets further bolstered crude prices. But the plus could be constrained by increasing worries about President Trump’s protectionist trade practices, which could slow down world economic growth and energy demand. KEY LOOKOUTS • Ongoing US military attacks and Houthi strikes in the Red Sea region could disrupt worldwide oil supply routes, placing continued upward pressure on WTI prices. • New moves by China to stimulate consumption and stabilize its economy may lend support to global oil demand and crude prices with a bullish twist. • Escalating worries regarding global trade tensions and inflation following Trump’s belligerent tariff strategy might dampen economic growth and oil demand in the long term. • Diversion of oil shipments because of disruptions in the Red Sea may escalate global energy transport costs, also affecting oil price dynamics. WTI crude oil traders will pay close attention to a number of key drivers affecting price action. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, most notably the continuing US-Houthi rebel conflict in the Red Sea, are still fueling fears of supply chain disruptions and increasing energy transportation costs. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, intended to support domestic consumption and shore up markets, are providing support to global oil demand. But the upside for WTI may be capped by concerns about a global economic slowdown, driven by President Trump’s renewed protectionist trade policies and import tariffs, which could depress business activity and erode consumer confidence. WTI crude oil is supported by rising Middle East tensions and China’s economic stimulus packages. But Trump’s tariff policies and their effects on world growth might keep further upside in oil prices in check. • WTI crude oil trades at close to $67.30 with elevated geopolitical tensions. • US military strikes against Houthi rebels create supply disruption concerns. • Red Sea unrest adds energy transportation costs, lifting oil prices. • China’s latest stimulus plan for the economy favors crude demand assumptions. • China’s retail sales improve, reflecting robust consumption. • Trump’s shift back to protectionist trade policy is driving global economic worries. • Fears of trade war and inflation risks may cap the upside potential in WTI. WTI crude oil prices are receiving support from increasing geopolitical tensions and positive economic cues from leading global economies. The current conflict in the Middle East, including the US’s military intervention aimed at Houthi rebels in Yemen, has increased the red flag of concerns regarding energy supply routes through the Red Sea. Consequently, global oil markets are responding to the possible interruption of crude transport, and attention has been given to supply security and energy prices. The matter has attracted world attention as oil logistics are increasing in complexity and expense because shipping routes have had to be detoured.  WTI CRUDE OIL Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Aside from geopolitical issues, China’s new economic policies are providing a bulls’ eye optimism for oil demand. The authorities in China introduced new measures for the enhancement of domestic consumption, as well as the stabilization of the stock market and realty markets. With better retail sales data and growing consumer activity, hopes of greater energy demand from the world’s second-largest economy are serving to underpin market confidence. Still, market participants are being held back by continuing global economic uncertainties, notably resulting from revived trade tensions and policy changes, which continue to inform the wider energy outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WTI crude oil is experiencing bullish momentum as it remains above the important psychological level of $67.00. The price action indicates firm buying interest, with short-term resistance possible around the $67.50–$68.00 range, and support at $66.50. A clean break above the resistance level can potentially open the gates for more bullishness, while inability to remain above the support level can see a short-term dip. Volumes and patterns in candlestick will be watched intently by traders to measure the strength of the prevailing trend. FORECAST WTI crude oil has potential for further upside if Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue to rise, particularly with ongoing American military intervention and possible supply interruptions in the Red Sea area. Moreover, China’s economic recovery efforts and robust consumption data could drive optimism over more international oil demand. If these supportive underpinnings continue, WTI prices may try to break above the short-term resistance levels and travel towards higher price levels in the near term. On the flip side, WTI may face downward pressure if global economic concerns intensify, particularly due to President Trump’s protectionist trade policies and their impact on inflation and consumer confidence. A slowdown in global growth could reduce energy demand, leading to a potential pullback in crude prices. Furthermore, any de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a drop in Chinese demand could also weigh on market sentiment and push WTI prices lower.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Holds Steady Near Record Highs Amid Trade Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Bets

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  • March 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to consolidate near its all-time highs, supported by rising trade tensions, geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. Despite a subdued start to the week, the precious metal remains well bid due to safe-haven demand, while a weaker US Dollar further underpins the bullish outlook. Although China’s recent economic stimulus has improved global risk sentiment and capped immediate gains, the overall trend remains in favor of the bulls. Market participants now await the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh direction, with the broader setup suggesting potential for further upside momentum. KEY LOOKOUTS • All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, which is expected to provide clarity on interest rate cuts and drive the next major move in XAU/USD • Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising trade war fears continue to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, keeping it near record highs. • A weaker US Dollar, hovering near multi-month lows, remains a supportive factor for gold prices. Any shift in USD sentiment could influence gold’s direction. • Key support lies near $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 zones, while a sustained move above $3,000 could open doors for the next bullish leg in gold’s uptrend. As gold prices hover near record highs, market participants are closely watching several key factors that could influence the next move in XAU/USD. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision remains a critical event, with expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2025 supporting the bullish outlook for the non-yielding metal. At the same time, heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade conflicts continue to boost safe-haven demand. Additionally, the US Dollar’s weakness near multi-month lows lends further support to gold prices. On the technical front, crucial support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are in focus, while a clear break above the psychological $3,000 level could trigger a fresh bullish rally. Gold price remains well-supported near record highs amid Fed rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. A weaker US Dollar adds to the bullish momentum, while key technical levels around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 remain crucial for near-term direction. All eyes now turn to the upcoming FOMC decision for fresh cues. • Gold consolidates near all-time highs, staying just below the $3,000 psychological mark. • Safe-haven demand rises amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. • Fed rate cut expectations for 2025 continue to support the bullish outlook for XAU/USD. • US Dollar remains weak, hovering near multi-month lows, further boosting gold prices. • China’s economic stimulus lifts market sentiment, capping immediate gains in gold. • Technical support levels at $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 are key zones to watch for any pullback. • The upcoming FOMC meeting is the most awaited event, likely to provide fresh direction for gold. Gold continues to hold its ground near record highs, driven by growing global uncertainties and strong safe-haven demand. Rising trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, including escalating situations in the Middle East and concerns over global economic stability, have reinforced gold’s appeal as a reliable store of value. Additionally, the market sentiment is being shaped by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates multiple times in 2025, as signs of economic slowdown and softer inflation data emerge in the U.S. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Adding to the supportive environment for gold, the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure amid these rate cut expectations, making the precious metal more attractive for investors holding other currencies. Meanwhile, China’s recent economic stimulus efforts, including initiatives to boost domestic consumption and support the housing sector, have helped improve market confidence globally. However, gold continues to benefit from its traditional role as a safe haven amid global instability, keeping it in focus for investors seeking long-term security. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold remains in a strong bullish trend, having recently broken above key resistance levels and now consolidating near its all-time highs. The overall market structure suggests continued upward momentum, supported by strong buying interest on any dips. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions, signaling a possibility of short-term consolidation, the broader chart pattern still favors the bulls. Key support zones around $2,956 and $2,930–2,928 could act as potential entry points for buyers, while a sustained move above the $3,000 psychological mark may open the door for further upside in the coming sessions. FORECAST Gold prices are likely to remain on an upward trajectory if current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions persist. Expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, combined with ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties, could continue to fuel safe-haven demand. A sustained weak US Dollar would further support this bullish outlook, potentially pushing gold beyond the $3,000 psychological mark. If risk sentiment weakens and investors seek safety, gold could attract more inflows, paving the way for new record highs in the coming months. On the flip side, any signs of easing geopolitical tensions or a shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone toward a more hawkish stance could limit gold’s gains or even trigger a pullback. Additionally, stronger-than-expected US economic data or a rebound in the US Dollar may reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal. If global markets regain stability and risk appetite improves, investors might shift focus away from safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a moderate decline in prices from current elevated levels.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Shines in Times of Global Uncertainty: XAG/USD Trades Near Five-Month Highs as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

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  • March 17, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) remains trading close to a five-month high of $34.00 on high safe-haven demand as global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions increase. The latest Middle Eastern conflict, the missile and drone attack by the Houthis on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, has boosted investor interest in precious metals. While Silver has experienced minor corrections, it still enjoys good support because of apprehensions over emerging trade wars as well as overall instability. Meanwhile, optimism around potential ceasefire talks between Trump and Putin for an end to the Ukraine conflict would limit further bullishness. Still, market operators are also watching for crucial decisions from key central banks this week, notably the US Federal Reserve’s policy projections, which will determine Silver’s next direction of movement. KEY LOOKOUTS • Continued Middle East tensions, particularly the Houthis’ attack, remain to enhance Silver’s safe-haven status, underpinning prices at multi-month highs. • Speculation of a possible Trump-Putin meeting on a Ukraine ceasefire would ease global uncertainty and cap Silver’s near-term upside momentum. • Market participants look forward to significant central bank gatherings, particularly the US Fed’s interest rate decision, which would sharply influence Silver’s near-term price direction. • Rising trade tensions and tariff wars between the US and key partners could boost market volatility, benefiting safe-haven assets such as Silver. Silver prices are in the spotlight with the metal trading at almost a five-month peak, underpinned by robust safe-haven demand as geopolitics heat up and global economic uncertainty increases. Recent Houthi attacks on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier have served to increase investor risk aversion, again spurring demand for precious metals. But future ceasefire negotiations between Trump and Putin over the Ukraine war could soften risk appetite and limit Silver’s upside potential. Investors are also keenly observing major central bank announcements this week, particularly the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance, which could be instrumental in deciding Silver’s next direction. Silver is trading close to a five-month high at $34.00, driven by safe-haven buying on the back of rising Middle East tensions and global uncertainties. But potential Trump-Putin ceasefire talks and future central bank actions could dictate Silver’s next direction. • Silver price trades close to $34.00, holding near its five-month high on strong safe-haven demand. • Geopolitical risk increases as the Houthis take responsibility for a bombing of the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the Red Sea. • Safe-haven demand intensifies, with investors fleeing to precious metals amid growing global uncertainty and conflict. • US threatens more strikes on Houthis, as the Iran-supported group promises additional retaliation, boosting market risk sentiment. • Trump-Putin ceasefire negotiations anticipated, potentially calming tensions in Ukraine and topping further upside for Silver prices. • Market participants look forward to major central bank meetings, particularly the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which may affect Silver’s trajectory. • Trade war fears rise, with tariff tit-for-tat between the US and its key trading partners underpinning Silver’s defensive allure. Silver remains a powerful investor draw as global uncertainties increase, beyond the usual concerns over inflation or interest rates. The latest attack on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier by Iran-backed Houthi forces has heightened fears in the Middle East, driving investors to safe-haven assets such as Silver. The United States has acted strongly, threatening to take further action against the Houthis, and the group has threatened further attacks, further increasing global concern. In times of such uncertainty, Silver is still a safer option for those looking for stability in the face of geopolitical tensions and increasing global threats. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, political changes around the world are influencing market mood. Hopes for a possible ceasefire in Ukraine have risen as former US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to sit down for talks. Any developments in the negotiations could change the global risk perception and investment patterns. Furthermore, the prevailing issues of trade tensions and economic policy also add to the uncertain atmosphere. While the world waits for central bank rates decisions and major political events, Silver remains robust, still representative of the market’s call for protection and safety. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) continues to be well-supported just shy of its five-month high at $34.00, indicative of strong bullish pressure. While small pullbacks have been seen, the trend structure is positive so long as the price remains above pivotal support areas. A persistent trend of higher highs and higher lows reflects ongoing buying interest, and any consolidation at current levels could act as a base for the next possible upward move. Traders will be closely observing a breakout above recent resistance, which would potentially open the way for further advances, while a fall below immediate support could initiate short-term corrections. FORECAST Silver could see further gains if geopolitical tensions continue to rise, particularly in the Middle East. Prolonged conflicts, like the recent Houthi raids and threats of counterattacks, are likely to maintain safe-haven demand strong. And if global trade war fears intensify or economic uncertainty grows, investors are likely to seek more recourse to Silver as a hedge, potentially driving prices above the recent five-month peak. A positive change of investor sentiment or dovish words from central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, can also help a new upsurge in Silver prices. Alternatively, Silver’s advance may be opposed by a reduction in global tensions. Any good news from the expected ceasefire negotiations between Trump and Putin over the conflict in Ukraine can dampen safe-haven demand, potentially dropping Silver prices. In addition, if central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, become more hawkish or if economic signals tend towards stability, then this could divert investor attention back towards riskier assets, and Silver may correct lower. A fall below crucial support levels may initiate additional profit-taking and increase short-term selling pressure.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Grapples With Lows Under Weight of Bearish USD Sentiment and Higher Oil Prices

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  • March 17, 2025
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The USD/CAD currency pair continues to see downward pressure, trading at the lower end of its near-term trading range as bearish US Dollar sentiment and higher crude oil prices keep the pair on the back foot. A bull spike in oil due to Red Sea geopolitical tensions and tighter Canadian fundamentals is providing some support to the commodity-linked Loonie. Meanwhile, growing expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025, coupled with soft US inflation data and a cooling labor market, keep the US Dollar subdued. Traders now await key US economic data and the outcome of the upcoming FOMC policy meeting for clearer directional cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets await the outcome of the FOMC meeting, which could offer fresh clues on future interest rate path and USD direction. • Future US economic statistics such as Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index can shape short-term USD/CAD direction and sentiment. • Further escalation of Middle East tensions would further push oil prices up, supporting the Canadian Dollar and putting downward pressure on USD/CAD. • Bullish news from recent US-Canada trade negotiations can continue to support the Loonie, keeping upside in the USD/CAD pair in check. Traders are keenly interested in important economic and geopolitical events that may dictate the USD/CAD pair in the near future. The impending FOMC policy meeting is crucial in its importance, with a potential to provide new information on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path as US inflation and labor indicators weaken. US Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Index would also be awaited for short-term trading signals. Conversely, increasing crude oil prices, driven by growing tensions at the Red Sea, remain to underpin the commodity-related Canadian Dollar. Additionally, sentiment from recent US-Canada trade talks that was optimistic in nature may keep the Loonie strong and limit any significant appreciation of the USD/CAD pair. USD/CAD is under pressure at the lower end of its range due to a weak US Dollar and higher crude oil prices. Traders are waiting for important US data and the FOMC policy decision for new direction. Favorable US-Canada trade sentiment also favors the Loonie. • USD/CAD stays firm around mid-1.4300s, unable to bounce back due to overall bearish sentiment against the US Dollar. • Crude oil prices jump to a two-week high, propping up the Canadian Dollar on account of its commodity-linked nature. • Geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea drive oil price spikes, bolstering the Loonie and capping USD/CAD upside. • Market expectations of several Fed rate cuts in 2025 weigh heavily on the US Dollar’s strength. • Soft US inflation and moderating labor market numbers reaffirm hopes for dovish Federal Reserve policy. • Positive news recently in US-Canada trade negotiations further encourages investor sentiment in the Canadian Dollar. • Sellers look to later US Retail Sales, Empire State Index, and FOMC meeting for new directional signals in the USD/CAD. The USD/CAD currency pair is currently driven by the larger economic and geopolitical forces dictating the world financial environment. One of the major drivers is the increasing prices of crude oil, which have a direct positive impact on the Canadian economy given its position as a significant oil exporter. The recent increase in oil prices, driven by increased tensions in the Red Sea, has made the Canadian Dollar stronger. Moreover, the positive news from the last US-Canada trade talks has provided a good support for the Loonie, and market sentiment has been enhanced with renewed faith in Canada’s economic prospects. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Conversely, the US Dollar is being pressed as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to take a dovish approach in the following months. Weaker inflation data, slowing signs in the labor market, and expectations for two interest cuts by 2025 have all fed into the weakening USD prognosis. Additionally, renewed fears that the US trade policy will somehow impact the American economy have put even more hesitation. As the traders look forward, the future US economic releases and the policy decisions of the Federal Reserve will have a significant role to play in determining the bigger picture for both currencies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD currency pair is consolidating in the vicinity of the lower side of its short-term trading band, reflecting a risk-averse market mood. The 1.4350 level is being used as an important support zone, and an unambiguous breach below here can lead the way for more selling. To the upside, recovery efforts will confront resistance at about the mid-1.4400s where selling can get re-instated. The duo’s failure to hold on to a firm upward push is a reflection of the underlying bearish sentiment, with traders still watching price action closely for possible breakout or breakdown cues in the sessions ahead. FORECAST If the USD is able to recover its strength, fueled by better-than-anticipated economic reports or a less dovish Federal Reserve in the next FOMC meeting, USD/CAD may try to recover. A move above the near-term resistance around the mid-1.4400s may fuel further upside action, possibly drawing in new buying interest. If that happens, the pair may target higher levels in the near term, particularly if oil prices stabilize or decline modestly. Conversely, if bearish pressure against the US Dollar persists as more rate cuts and dismal economic indicators are anticipated, USD/CAD could fall further. If the price goes below the 1.4350 support level for an extended period, selling momentum could be triggered once more, directing the pair lower towards further support levels. Moreover, if oil prices keep rising due to geopolitical tensions, the Canadian Dollar might gain further, which could hasten the downside risk for USD/CAD.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Jumps Higher than 0.5750 as China’s Economic Data Increases Market Optimism and Weakening USD

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  • March 17, 2025
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The pair NZD/USD moved higher than the 0.5750 level, picking up strength for a second day in a row after the publication of strong economic data from China. Retail Sales in China increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February, and Industrial Production grew by 5.9%, both showing enhanced economic activity and improving market optimism in the Asia-Pacific economy. Since China is still one of New Zealand’s most important trading partners, these encouraging signs supported the Kiwi. Further optimism was provided by China’s recently launched consumption stimulus plan. The US Dollar, on the other hand, lost strength as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted sharply, further supporting NZD/USD’s bullish trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • Greater-than-anticipated Retail Sales and Industrial Production in China increase NZD sentiment, supporting optimism in Asia-Pacific market dynamics. • A precipitous decline in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index presses the US Dollar, providing support to NZD/USD advances. • China’s special action plan to promote consumption, wages, and real estate sentiment favors regional currencies, including NZD over USD. • Weakness in New Zealand’s Performance of Services Index is a domestic signal, and if global sentiment reverses, this could restrict NZD’s rally. The NZD/USD currency pair continues to strengthen with the support of positive Chinese economic data and a soft US Dollar. China’s Retail Sales increased by 4.0% and Industrial Production grew 5.9% in January-February, which indicates good economic momentum and raises investor sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region. The New Zealand Dollar also gained from China’s new stimulus package that was created to boost domestic consumption, pay, as well as stabilize markets. On the other hand, the US Dollar remained on the back foot after a steep fall in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index to its weakest level since November 2022. In spite of a decline in New Zealand’s services sector, the favorable external environment remains in support of NZD/USD’s rise. NZD/USD climbs above 0.5750, led by robust Chinese economic data and a softer US Dollar. The pair’s upside is also supported by China’s new consumption stimulus plan. Even with domestic service sector softness, the pair continues to rally. • NZD/USD climbed above 0.5750, marking the second straight day of gains on improved sentiment. • China’s Retail Sales grew 4.0% YoY in January-February, from 3.7% in December, supporting regional currencies such as the NZD. • Chinese Industrial Production grew 5.9% YoY, better than expected, and indicating economic prowess. • China rolled out a special consumption stimulus plan, comprising wage increases and efforts to enhance household expenditure and stabilize core markets. • PSI in New Zealand fell to 49.1, indicating services sector contraction that may drag on domestic economic prospects. • US Dollar declined strongly, after a fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 57.9, the lowest level since November 2022. • The attention now shifts to US Retail Sales data that may drive the next direction for NZD/USD. China’s recent economic statistics have sent a wave of optimism into the market, particularly favoring the New Zealand Dollar. The increase in Retail Sales and Industrial Production between the months of January-February indicates firmer consumer spending and industrial performance, which supports China’s economic growth. Since China is one of New Zealand’s major trading partners, any good news in its economy will prove favorable to the New Zealand Dollar. In addition, China’s declaration of a special action plan to spur domestic consumption—via wage rises, support for household spending, and market stabilization efforts—has also boosted sentiment throughout the region. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Concurrently, the US Dollar is under pressure from declining consumer confidence in the United States. The steep drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflects increasing worry about the outlook for the US economy, and this is having an impact on investor sentiment. Although New Zealand’s own service sector has reported signs of slowing, overall market sentiment remains biased towards the Kiwi, owing primarily to superior external drivers. With global markets waiting closely for subsequent economic releases, the overall economic climate remains in the driver’s seat in dictating currency fluctuations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is displaying the signs of ongoing bullish strength following the break through the 0.5750 resistance level. The pair remains firm around 0.5760, reflecting buyer demand at higher prices. If the pair holds above this range, it may challenge the next resistance zone of 0.5785–0.5800. On the negative side, support is close to 0.5720, and then a stronger support area around 0.5680. A break below these could mean a loss of momentum. On the whole, the current price action indicates a positive sentiment with the pair remaining in a short-term bullish bias. FORECAST NZD/USD may experience further gains in the short term. Positive economic news from China and the stimulus packages to stimulate consumption are expected to continue supporting the New Zealand Dollar. A break above the 0.5760 level may pave the way towards the next resistance levels at 0.5785 and 0.5800. If the bullish momentum continues, the pair may even try to reach the 0.5820 level, particularly if future US economic data continues to be weak. On the other hand, any change in market mood or disappointing economic news from the rest of the world may initiate a pullback in NZD/USD. In case the pair is unable to stay above 0.5750, it might initially be supported around 0.5720. Breaking below this point might initiate a more serious correction towards 0.5680 or even 0.5650. Moreover, if New Zealand’s economic indicators in the domestic market continue to reflect weakness, it may cap the upside and risk a move down.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Outlook: Will Geopolitical Tensions Lead to a $75K Reversal or Spark a Bullish Rebound to $90K?

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  • March 15, 2025
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Bitcoin remains in the midst of turbulent waters as tensions over geopolitics, such as Trump’s escalating trade war against Canada, loom large over the supportive effects of easing U.S. inflation data. Though up a moderate 5% on the week, BTC remains susceptible to reversing lower towards $75,000, particularly given decreasing market volumes and ongoing ETF outflows. Though technical indicators imply bearish pressure, future macro events like the potential Fed rate pause and enhancing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire chances might revive bullish momentum. As market sentiment remains suspended, traders eagerly await whether Bitcoin will recover to $90,000 or encounter a further correction in the week ahead. KEY LOOKOUTS • A possible Fed rate hold next week would be a positive for crypto market sentiment and propel new inflows into Bitcoin and digital assets. • Rising US-Canada trade war tensions and worldwide tensions will likely remain a drag on retail investor sentiment, adding to the downside risk for Bitcoin. • Persistent Bitcoin ETF outflows confirm weak institutional sentiment; look for a reversal as the catalyst for bearish momentum. • Parabolic SAR and constricting Bollinger Bands suggest buildup in volatility—BTC’s next step may be quick, either to $75K or $90K. Bitcoin enters a make-or-break period as counterbalancing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors still drive its price direction. Although relenting U.S. inflation and impending Fed rate standstill hold promise for bullish momentum, the US-Canada trade war and entrenched ETF outflows bring investor mood into question. Technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and constricting Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility in the future, with Bitcoin set for a significant breakout in either direction. While BTC hovers around $84,800, market players are divided—will the bulls take charge for a $90K breakout, or does a reversal to $75K await? Bitcoin is at a crossroads as loosening inflation feeds bullish expectations but trade war nerves and ETF selling increase the downside risks. As volatility signals pick up, BTC may swing drastically to $90K or plunge to $75K in the next few days. • Bitcoin price trades around $84,800, indicating a 5% weekly advance despite recent turmoil and macro pressures. • US-Canada trade tensions initiated by Trump’s tariff announcements are cooling retail investor sentiment and weakening market momentum. • Market volumes have fallen for the third consecutive week, enhancing the threat of a possible reversal in price to the $75,000 support level. • Parabolic SAR is still bearish, and narrowing Bollinger Bands point toward an upcoming breakout or breakdown in BTC’s price action. • Bitcoin ETFs experienced $830 million worth of outflows, following the pattern of stagnant institutional demand and contributing to near-term volatility. • Polymarket traders imply a 99% probability of a Fed pause, which, if realized, could be positively impacting crypto sentiment. • Geopolitical headlines and softening inflation readings will be among the most important variables determining the price direction of Bitcoin in the week to come. Bitcoin is still in the middle of world financial headlines as wider economic and geopolitical trends keep shaping investors’ moods. The softening of U.S. inflation figures recently was greeted with temporary relief, as everyone expected the Federal Reserve to ease its attitude. But then all attention moved on to intensifying tensions between the U.S. and Canada after former President Donald Trump revealed new trade tariffs. This evolution has provoked apprehensions within market players, dwarfing the encouraging optimism in the inflation news and promoting wariness across the cryptocurrency sector. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, interest in Bitcoin remains buoyant, particularly as policy considerations start gaining prominence. In the United States, legislative efforts such as Florida’s bill to shield Trump’s Bitcoin reserve policy and Texas’s effort to invest in digital assets indicate an increased institutional interest in crypto integration. These actions show the changing function of Bitcoin both in state-level planning and in national economic strategy. As the crypto space continues to mature, these kinds of developments might have a substantial impact on long-term adoption and sentiment of Bitcoin beyond price action. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin is now displaying signs of consolidation in a tight range, which reflects market indecision. The price has fluctuated between major levels, implying that traders are waiting for a definitive breakout or breakdown before deciding on a direction. The Parabolic SAR also continues to indicate bearish momentum, and the constricting of Bollinger Bands shows decreasing volatility and a possible sharp move in the future. This accumulation usually leads to large price action, and traders are keenly waiting for a breakout that will set the tone for the upcoming trend—whether bullish or bearish. FORECAST If macro sentiment continues to strengthen, particularly in light of an affirmed Fed rate hold and abating geopolitical concerns, Bitcoin can potentially re-take bullish control. Favorable trends like resumed institutional investment interest, possible investment into Bitcoin ETFs, and positive regulatory measures by states including Florida and Texas might also provide a further thrust upward. If that were the case, BTC might challenge still higher levels of resistance, and a short-term bounce toward $90,000 could be an achievable target. Conversely, if trade war tensions heighten or investor sentiment continues to deteriorate amid ongoing ETF outflows and dwindling trading volumes, Bitcoin might experience a downward correction. Weak retail participation and increasing macroeconomic uncertainty may push prices down to test significant support levels. Under a bearish scenario, BTC might drop into the $75,000 area, particularly if risk-off sentiment prevails across the overall financial markets.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum’s Slippery Slope: DeFi Sector is in Grave Danger if ETH Dips to $1,000

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  • March 15, 2025
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Ethereum, the backbone of the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector, is in a delicate situation as its price is having difficulty holding above important levels of support. Currently sitting at levels of around $1,920, ETH’s inability to break the $2,200 barrier could see the asset plummet further down to $1,500 — and perhaps even $1,000, a level experts fear will destroy much of the DeFi space. Such lows might lead to gigantic liquidations, decreased liquidity, a sudden plummet in Total Value Locked (TVL), and dwindling investor confidence. As pressure from regulators gathers and DeFi comes under increasing scrutiny for enabling recent high-profile hacks, Ethereum’s price path has far-reaching implications for decentralized finance’s future. KEY LOOKOUTS • ETH will need to take back $2,200 or risk further selling; failure would see it accelerate toward the very important $1,500 support level. • Liquidity in DeFi space is threatened by the possibility of a deeper ETH correction that will lower TVL and suppress user interest on decentralized platforms. • $1,000 ETH stands as a fear point that can initiate en masse liquidations, investor exit, and drastic setbacks for innovation within the DeFi ecosystem. • Regulatory oversight is heating up, particularly following ETH-related hacks, that may result in sanctions, delistings of protocols, and lawsuits against DeFi developers. Ethereum’s recent price instability has triggered real fears throughout the DeFi world, with analysts cautioning against a looming crisis if ETH dips to $1,000. Such a sharp fall would trigger huge liquidations, a sudden drop in Total Value Locked (TVL), and a sharp decrease in investor activity and trust. With Ethereum struggling to climb back above the $2,200 resistance zone, the potential for further bearishness to $1,500 or worse is still intact. Adding fuel to the fire, DeFi is also in increasing regulatory jeopardy, particularly following its infrastructure reportedly being used to launder stolen crypto from a recent high-profile hack. The weeks ahead will tell if Ethereum will be able to regain its stride or pull the DeFi ecosystem into further chaos. Ethereum’s price woes continue to represent a serious risk to the DeFi ecosystem. A decline to $1,000 would induce huge liquidations and destroy investor sentiment. Increasing regulatory pressure also mounts the pressure, so ETH’s recovery above $2,200 is vital to market health. • Ethereum’s price currently floats around $1,920, with resistance at $2,200 and an important support point at $1,500. • A fall to $1,000 would hit the DeFi market hard, initiating huge liquidations and lower investor confidence. • DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) has already dropped by 40%, reflecting decreasing liquidity and market engagement. • Experts predict that ETH’s fall would slow DeFi growth since low prices may deter new investment and innovation in the industry. • Regulatory pressure against DeFi is increasing, after its application in concealing the stolen ETH in the Bybit hack. • Social sentiment towards “buy-the-dip” and “bottom” is rising, reflecting some retail optimism at the $1,800–$1,900 level. • Technical gauges such as RSI and Stochastic Oscillator reflect bearish momentum, unless ETH decisively breaks out above the $2,200 level. Ethereum’s position as the foundation of the decentralized finance (DeFi) space puts it at the forefront of innovation and risk. As the main platform underpinning thousands of DeFi applications, any volatility in Ethereum’s ecosystem has a direct impact on the overall landscape. There are concerns among experts that if Ethereum suffers a sharp fall, it would create a ripple effect—lowering confidence in DeFi, slowing down user adoption, and diminishing liquidity across platforms. The confidence in DeFi relies not only on innovation but also on the resilience and stability of Ethereum as its foundation. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Compounding to the fear is the recent backlash DeFi has attracted due to its involvement in enabling illicit fund flows, like those associated with the Bybit hack. Critics suggest that while decentralization fosters freedom and autonomy, it also creates avenues for abuse without defined accountability. With regulators starting to look at the DeFi space more intensely, the industry can struggle to reconcile innovation with regulation. The future of decentralized finance thus depends not just on technological progress but on establishing trust, transparency, and responsible practices in the ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum is going through a consolidation period, failing to overcome major resistance levels. Indications point to slight upward pressure, with price action locked within a specified rectangular pattern. In spite of sporadic bullish efforts, the market mood is still guarded, and an inability to create a strong breakout might indicate additional downside threat. Support levels near $1,750 are proving to be resilient, but the absence of persistent buying pressure is likely to keep any meaningful relief in check. Traders are keenly observing for a firm move above resistance to validate a change in trend and rebuild bullish sentiment in the market. FORECAST The price outlook for Ethereum is unclear as it fails to hold its ground in the midst of market volatility. A possible breakout move upward can be catalyzed if ETH is able to cross above the $2,200 resistance point, indicating renewed investor appetite and higher buying pressure. If this is the case, Ethereum would be able to regain higher grounds, drawing new liquidity into the market and potentially advancing to $2,500 or higher. Higher adoption, favorable regulatory changes, and better sentiment in the overall crypto space could also add to a bull run. Alternatively, the bearish scenario is still a possibility, particularly if Ethereum cannot continue holding at its present levels. A breakdown below the $1,750 support level may trigger more selling pressure, with the next pivotal level being $1,500. Below this level, Ethereum could experience a prolonged slide towards $1,000, a level experts say will cause widespread liquidations and further deplete the DeFi sector. External influences like regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic turmoil, or bearish sentiment in the crypto space may accelerate the downtrend, making a robust recovery difficult.

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Commodities Gold

Gold’s Historic Leap Above $3,000: Market Responses, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Prospects Ahead

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  • March 15, 2025
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Gold prices leapt above the historic $3,000 level to an all-time high of $3,004 per ounce before retreating to $2,982 due to US Dollar fluctuations and uncertainty regarding President Donald Trump’s trade agenda. The price rally was propelled by geopolitical uncertainties, such as the weakening Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and China’s ongoing gold buildup, which drove demand for the safe-haven metal. At the same time, fears of US recession intensified in the wake of soft consumer sentiment readings, fueling speculation about further easing of Federal Reserve policy in 2025. Despite the retreat, technical analysts foresee another attempt to drive prices higher to test resistance levels with support at $2,950 and resistance at $3,050 and $3,100 being key. KEY LOOKOUTS • Having briefly breached $3,000, gold bounces off $3,050 while support at $2,950 is still the key to knowing what will happen next. • Russia-Ukraine ceasefire uncertainty and China’s continuing gold purchases would potentially affect bullion demand and price movements. • Subdued consumer confidence and increasing recession worries boost hopes for Federal Reserve rate reductions, affecting the long-term outlook of gold. • Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum can stoke inflation fears, impacting the US Dollar and pushing gold prices up as a safe-haven. Gold’s recent rally above $3,000 underscores the increasing influence of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and changing monetary policies on the demand for the precious metal. The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is still tenuous, while China’s ongoing gold hoarding underpins bullish sentiment. At the same time, US recession concerns have grown amid weak consumer sentiment numbers, increasing expectations of possible Federal Reserve rate reductions in 2025. Also, President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs have fueled inflationary fears, diminishing the US Dollar and further supporting gold as a safe-haven asset. While traders closely follow future economic data and Fed moves, gold’s capacity to hold onto its all-time highs will hinge on changing market dynamics. Gold’s historical rally above $3,000 is a response to increasing geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and inflation threats. Negative US consumer sentiment and expectations of Fed rate cuts drive bullish pressures, while Trump’s tariffs impose stress on the US Dollar, enhancing gold’s safe-haven appeal. • Gold momentarily peaked at a new all-time high of $3,004 per ounce before receding to $2,982 due to market volatility. • Failing Russia-Ukraine truce and persistent China gold buildup stimulate safe-haven demand for bullion. • Dovish consumer sentiment information heightens prospects of economic slow-down, sparking Federal Reserve interest rate reduction anticipations for 2025. • New import tariffs on aluminum and steel set off inflation concern, drenching the US Dollar while perpetuating bull-run in gold. • Soft Greenback spurs gold prices upward, though Treasuries market yield shifts as well as expected inflation provide variability. • Gold is resisted at $3,050 and $3,100, with very strong support at $2,950, followed by $2,900 and $2,850. • Investors look forward to next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting for additional hints at interest rates and economic forecasts. Gold’s recent record of breaching $3,000 an ounce underscores growing global demand for safe-haven assets in light of increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite ceasefire efforts, remains a major factor influencing investor sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s central bank continues to expand its gold reserves, signaling strong institutional demand. The combination of these geopolitical risks and global market instability has further reinforced gold’s position as a preferred store of value. Furthermore, trade tensions, specifically US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, have stoked inflation fears, rendering gold a sought-after hedge against economic uncertainty. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Apart from geopolitics and trade policies, the US economy is also at the center of influencing gold’s demand. A sudden drop in consumer confidence, fueled by fears of economic slowdown, has increased speculation that the Federal Reserve could relax monetary policy in 2025. The potential for lower interest rates and a weakening US Dollar enhances gold’s attractiveness as an alternative asset. Investors are eagerly awaiting future economic releases, such as retail sales and housing market reports, for additional clues regarding the health of the US economy. While uncertainty lingers, gold continues to be the focal point of investor attention, mirroring general anxiety regarding inflation, economic stability, and worldwide financial trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s technical picture indicates a phase of consolidation following a brief move above the $3,000 mark. The metal encountered resistance around $3,004 before retreating, signaling profit-taking and a temporary respite in bullish pressure. The important support is around $2,950, which if broken, can send prices lower to $2,900 and $2,850. On the other side, a consistent rally above $3,000 can put the fence open for another test of $3,050 and maybe $3,100. Traders are in wait-and-see mode regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, with expectations of interest rates influencing gold’s next move. FORECAST Gold’s upswing is in place as geopolitics, rising inflation expectations, and possible Federal Reserve rate reductions underpin prices higher. Gold can trigger yet another push upward to the next resistance levels at $3,050 and $3,100 if it stays above $3,000. Ongoing central bank purchases, especially from China, and weakening US Dollar may underpin additional support for the rally. Moreover, any increase in geopolitical tensions or dovishness from the Fed can fuel safe-haven demand, supporting gold’s long-term uptrend. Gold has good fundamentals but is exposed to downside risks if profit-taking becomes more aggressive or the US Dollar rallies unexpectedly. A fall below the critical support level of $2,950 can trigger a deeper correction towards $2,900 and $2,850. If economic reports, including retail sales or housing data, beat expectations, they may decrease the chances of aggressive Fed rate cuts, capping gold’s gains. Additionally, if inflation continues to be contained and risk appetite grows, investors will turn their attention to other assets or equities and temporarily put pressure on gold prices.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Glimmers As Dollar Loses Strength: XAU/USD Breaks Over $2,910 Amid Global Market Nervousness

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  • March 11, 2025
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Gold prices rose to an incredible high on Tuesday, pushing up over the vital $2,900 level to test levels at around $2,910 on the back of a weakening US Dollar. A new injection into the Euro in response to the news of an imminent German defense spending agreement unleashed a domino effect, sliding the US Dollar Index and enhancing demand for the safe-haven metal. Simultaneously, global market mood is still susceptible to the escalating tariff tensions between Canada and China. With investors looking to the next Federal Reserve meeting on March 19 and the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a high chance of unchanged rates, Gold remains supported, both technically and fundamentally, as it wipes out early-week losses and gains bullish traction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Gold is trading above $2,910; a break above R1 may drive prices towards $2,933, in line with last week’s highs. • A softer US Dollar, prompted by Euro strength, continues to underpin Gold’s rally, maintaining bullish momentum in the short term. • Markets expect no rate change on March 19, but increasing rate-cut expectations for May may further shape Gold’s price action. • Persistent global tariff tensions and recession concerns add to Gold’s safe-haven allure, keeping investors wary yet hopeful of further gains. Gold are still closely correlated with wider macroeconomic and geopolitical events. The recent breakout over $2,910 emphasizes its potential for higher prices, with sights set on the next level of resistance at $2,933, coinciding with last week’s highs. A declining US Dollar, driven by a strengthening Euro off the back of Germany’s defense spending news, continues to drive bullish momentum in Gold. Further, investors are following the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on March 19, at which no rate adjustment is anticipated, but the chances of a rate reduction in May are increasing. On the other hand, global trade tensions and fears of recession are boosting Gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s increase over $2,910 indicates strong bullish sentiment, with support coming from a depreciating US Dollar and geopolitics. Traders now focus on the March 19 Federal Reserve meeting, while global trade tensions further augment Gold’s safe-haven demand. • Gold prices recover strongly, rising above the $2,910 level and wiping out early-week losses. • Weaker US Dollar propels Gold, fueled by Euro strength following Germany’s defense spending deal headlines. • Technical breakout opportunity arises as Gold approaches resistance at $2,933, last week’s high. • Safe-haven demand increases as global trade tensions escalate and concerns of a possible economic slowdown grow. • CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 95% probability of no rate hike on March 19, but a 47.8% probability of a cut in May. • Support zone remains firm at $2,880–$2,873, keeping Gold technically supported for the time being. • Thai Baht gains from Gold rally, reflecting Thailand’s status as a regional Gold-trading hub amid currency market shifts. Gold remains in the limelight as economic and political changes around the world shape market sentiment. One major driver of Gold’s popularity is the weakening US Dollar, which was under pressure after reports of a possible defense budget agreement in Germany. This move supported the Euro and, in turn, pushed demand for the precious metal higher indirectly. With increasing uncertainties, Gold remains a trusted safe-haven asset, providing investors with a buffer against volatility in conventional markets. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are also a dominant theme influencing market sentiment. The growing trade tensions between Canada and China, as well as the fear of wider tariff wars, is spurring caution in global markets. Investors are also monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting closely, as interest rate announcements can have implications for the overall economic direction. In such a setting, Gold remains steadfast as a safe haven of value, drawing in those looking for stability in the midst of the tempest. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has regained bullish momentum after taking back the crucial $2,900 level and moving towards $2,910. The metal has also crossed above the daily Pivot Point at $2,895, indicating strength in intraday trading. If purchasing interest remains, the following resistance level to be aware of is around $2,933, which matches last week’s highs. In contrast, support is seen to be strong at $2,880, which has remained in place in recent sessions. If it breaks here, it can potentially open doors towards further support around $2,873 and $2,857, presenting important zones to be watched out for by traders in the short term. FORECAST Gold may continue to rise in the following sessions. Its clear break above the $2,910 level may set the stage towards the next significant resistance near $2,933, which is also last week’s high. Breaking through this zone might reinforce buying confidence and drive Gold towards fresh short-term highs, provided the US Dollar continues to weaken and global tensions persist. Also, increasing hopes of a potential rate cut in the near future could further help Gold’s bullish outlook. Gold could see selling pressure. A fall below the support of $2,880 would lead to a move towards $2,873, and then a more significant correction towards about $2,857. These are crucial checkpoints for the traders, as a break below these levels could indicate a change in short-term momentum. Further, if the geopolitical tensions are alleviated or the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish approach in the next meeting, it might cap Gold’s upside and raise downside risks.

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