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USD/CAD Maintains Price Above 1.4300: Market Awaits Fed Powell Testimonies Despite Escalation of Tariffs

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  • February 11, 2025
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USD/CAD is currently trading above 1.4300, consolidating as investors await Fed Jerome Powell’s testifying for future interest rate policies. The Fed kept its key rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, with no cuts expected in 2025. In the meantime, the 25% tariffs of Trump on steel and aluminum create pressure on the Canadian economy, making the outlook for the CAD bearish. Market participants also keep an eye on US CPI data for further direction. Technical indicators remain sideways, while resistance is present at 1.4380 and the pair may rise as high as 1.4500. Support below 1.4270 could push prices lower. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors await Powell’s speech to know whether the Fed is going to extend its interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% in 2025 or not. • 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum may weigh heavily on the Canadian economy, bringing a bearish trend for CAD/USD. • Tocky Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be out. This will impact market sentiment and further provide cues about inflationary trends affecting Fed policy. • The upside would be further possible only if the USD/CAD breaks above 1.4380. If it drops below 1.4270, a deeper correction can be witnessed. Wednesday’s Fed testimony by Chair Jerome Powell and the subsequent silent of interest rate policy keep the USD/CAD under the spotlight, with investors watching carefully for further clues. Since the Fed has held rates at 4.25%-4.50%, it is of immense interest to see if cuts are delayed until the end of 2025. Meanwhile, tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum at 25% are going to devastate Canada and will continue to reinforce a bearish view of the CAD. The US CPI data is going to be an important driver for expectations around inflation and monetary policy. Tactically, key resistance is seen at 1.4380. A clear break above here should send prices higher, while any move below 1.4270 should put support at risk and ideally could see a stronger fall. The USD/CAD pair still trades above the 1.4300 line as investors keep an eye out for Fed Chair Powell’s testimonial for key interest rate policies. The announcement of 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on steel and aluminum is weighing against the Canadian Dollar, while positive US CPI later in the session will have enough influence on sentiment. Key level to watch up: 1.4380. Key level to watch downside: 1.4270 • The pair remains steady pending key economic events. • Traders look for signals on how long the Fed will keep rates at 4.25%-4.50%. • The Canadian economy faces pressure as the U.S. imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum. • The inflation report on Wednesday could influence future Fed policy decisions. • Investors remain uncertain, leading to a tight trading range of 1.4270-1.4380. • A breakout above this level could push USD/CAD toward 1.4500. • A break below might push the price lower to 1.4195 and then to 1.4120. The USD/CAD is still trading flat above 1.4300, as traders are waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to testify before Congress. Market participants are looking for clues on how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, with many analysts expecting no rate cuts in 2025. Concerns over Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to weigh on the Canadian economy, as Canada is the largest exporter of aluminum to the United States. Such levies may mean higher inflation rates in the US, and by extension, that the Fed must continue its existing monetary policy much longer. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA USD/CAD is trading between 1.4270 and 1.4380; 1.4380 serves as a pivotal resistance point for the pair. A breakout above this could take the pair towards 1.4500, whereas a push below 1.4270 could lead to more losses toward 1.4195 and 1.4120. Another event that markets are eagerly awaiting is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled on Wednesday; this will have considerable ramifications in shifting market sentiment and increasing demand for USD. With various economic and political factors present, the outcome of the USD/CAD seems uncertain, but Powell’s testimonial and then the CPI to be released shall be the primary drivers for a future price shift. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS In the USD/CAD, consolidation is seen over a tight band of 1.4270-1.4380 due to the scheduled economic events; the 50-period Exponential Moving Average has been seen resisting the upside trend at around 1.4365. Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the 40.00-60.00 area, showing a neutral to sideways trend. A break above 1.4380 would be likely to push the pair to the round-level resistance of 1.4500, and then to the January 30 high of 1.4600. A break below 1.4270 could be seen as a trigger for further losses down to the December 10 high of 1.4195 and then to the December 11 low of 1.4120. Traders will watch for the volumes to build and confirmation signs before making a directional bet. FORECAST Should USD/CAD break out of the resistance line at 1.4380, further gains could occur for the currency, and that’s towards round number resistance 1.4500. An increased breakout through the latter would lead the currency pair to move further to January 30 highs at 1.4600 with the boost in positive economic numbers from the US or more hawkish speeches by Fed Chairman Powell. Additionally, sustained inflationary concerns in the U.S., potentially fueled by Trump’s 25% tariffs, could lead to higher USD demand, reinforcing the pair’s upward trajectory. If the Fed delays rate cuts throughout 2025, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, keeping USD/CAD in an uptrend. On the downside, if USD/CAD goes below the February 5 low of 1.4270, it might reflect increased bearish pressure that could drag the pair toward the December 10 high of 1.4195. Further below this level, it would open the door for a possible dip toward the December 11 low of 1.4120. Any signs of a softer U.S. Release of CPI data or dovish comment from Powell will weaken USD; hence the

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Struggles Below 0.6300: Market Uncertainty and Technical Signals Shape the Outlook

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  • February 11, 2025
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The AUD/USD pair continues trading in a tight range below the 0.6300 mark, unable to gain upward momentum amid expectations for an RBA rate cut and escalating US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, bolstered by fears that potential Trump tariffs could be inflationary and keep the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, weighs on the Australian Dollar. The advance, however, faces technical issues, with the prices finding support above the 50-day SMA and oscillators turning positive. However, a decisive break above 0.6300 would confirm a bullish reversal, targeting 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. On the contrary, a break and failure to sustain support at 0.6235 might trigger further decline to 0.6140, 0.6085, and eventually to the psychological level of 0.6000, hence sustaining the downtrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • The market will then gain a lot of buying pressure above 0.6300 and drive up towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455, as the bullish breakout takes place. • The on-going prospects of an RBA rate cut next week still weigh down the Aussie even when technical levels were widely signaling a recovery. • Geopolitical uncertainty and increased trade war tensions between the U.S. and China are the primary headwinds for AUD, stopping it from moving higher. • A stronger US Dollar, coupled with potential Trump tariffs and inflation concerns, will keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, thus further capping upside in the AUD/USD pair. AUD/USD continues trading in a tight range below 0.6300 as a variety of factors continue to affect the movement. Expectations for a RBA rate cut, as well as US-China trade tensions, are weighing on the Australian Dollar, thus capping its upside potential. Meanwhile, a stronger USD, which is driven by concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs and their impact on inflation, is keeping the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance intact. From a technical perspective, a decisive break above 0.6300 could trigger fresh buying interest, pushing the pair towards 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. But if support at 0.6235 fails to hold, then the AUD/USD may be seen further lower towards 0.6140, 0.6085, and the psychological 0.6000 level, thus continuing the bearish trend. The AUD/USD pair is struggling below 0.6300, driven down by RBA rate cut bets, US-China trade tensions, and a stronger USD. A break above 0.6300 will reportedly indicate recovery to 0.6365 and 0.6400, while a failure to hold 0.6235 support will push it down to 0.6140 and 0.6000. • The pair remains stuck in a tight trading range and struggles to pick up pace due to its uncertain economic and geopolitical background. • It is expected to continue hammering and attracting down the Australian Dollar amid speculations of an upcoming RBA rate cut. • The Aussie is under stress as trade tensions continue to hot up between the US and China, not allowing it to break out into key resistance levels. • Better still, the USD has firmed further due to the expectation that potential Trump tariffs may boost inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish. • Additional gains above 0.6300 are required to confirm upward momentum; if so, targets are at 0.6365, 0.6400, and 0.6455. •  Further weakness towards 0.6140 and then down to 0.6085 and then 0.6000 is possible if AUD/USD does not hold onto any strength above 0.6235. • The 50-day SMA and improving oscillators suggest a possible bullish reversal, but confirmation is needed above 0.6300. The AUD/USD pair remains trapped below the 0.6300 mark, struggling to gain any meaningful traction amid a mix of fundamental and technical factors. RBA rate cut expectations continue to pressure the Australian Dollar, as investors anticipate a potential policy easing next week. Furthermore, rising US-China trade tensions remain a significant headwind and keep the Aussie under pressure. In addition, a stronger US Dollar, due to the belief that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs could push inflation and strengthen the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, limits further upside for AUD/USD. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The AUD/USD pair continues to trade in a very tight range, with resistance near 0.6300 as investors weigh the impact of RBA rate cut speculation and US-China trade tensions. A stronger US Dollar, supported by expectations of a hawkish Fed stance, adds further pressure on the Aussie, limiting any meaningful upside. Technically, the pair is trading above its 50-day SMA. This means it has a chance of breaking out on the upside if it clears 0.6300. The targets for this are at 0.6365 and 0.6400. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This is an indication that momentum may be changing. The oscillators on the daily chart are showing positive traction. The pair might see a bullish breakout if it sustains above the 0.6300 resistance level. A successful breach of this key level might send the pair toward 0.6365, 0.6400, and the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Failure to break higher may invite renewed selling pressure, with 0.6235 acting as immediate support. A drop below this level will speed up the downtrend to 0.6140, 0.6085 and the psychological mark of 0.6000. Traders should be focusing on these important levels for the confirmation of a major price movement. FORECAST AUD/USD pair might break out positively if it succeeds in staying above the resistance point of 0.6300. A decisive break below this important level would confirm a bullish reversal, with possible targets at 0.6365 and 0.6400, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.6455. Technical indicators, including oscillators gaining positive momentum, suggest that buying pressure could increase if the pair remains above its 50-day SMA. Any positive risk-aversion environment or easing US-China trade tension would further increase the Aussie price and push the pair to much higher levels. AUD/USD fails to sustain above 0.6300, it can attract fresh sellings, pulling the pair south. The short-term support now lies at 0.6235. Break below this, and the downtrend could proceed towards 0.6140 and 0.6085. A stronger US Dollar, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and potential Trump tariffs, may continue to cap the Aussie’s gains. Additionally, growing concerns over an RBA rate cut could

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Key Technical Levels and Market Sentiment Analysis

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  • February 11, 2025
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The NZD/USD pair is consolidating around the 0.5650 level, with immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI is still below the 50 level, which indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. A break below 0.5650 may push the pair toward the lower boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5550, with further support at 0.5516. Conversely, in the event that the pair breaks below 0.5654, it could be on its way to rallying and trying to reach its nine-week high at 0.5794 and psychological resistance at 0.5800. The technical structure calls for the fight between the bulls and the bears, with the next direction dependent on some key support and resistance levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breach of this level could now heighten the pressure on the bears, and NZD/USD now drops toward 0.5550 then critical support at 0.5516. • The pair, above this level, could intensify short-term bullish momentum towards the 0.5794 high and psychological resistance at 0.5800. • The 14-day RSI remains below 50, meaning the buying momentum is weak, and the odds are in favor of a lower movement unless sentiment improves. • The pair is within a well-defined range. A breakout in either direction can determine the next significant trend for NZD/USD. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading through a critical area and finds immediate support near 0.5650 with resistance to the nine-day EMA at 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 will increase the bears’ pressure, send the pair to the 0.5550 region and down towards 0.5516, low since October 2022. On the upside, overcoming the hurdle at 0.5654 will boost the bulls for further moves till 0.5794 and then on to the psychological level of 0.5800. Signs. The 14-day RSI remains below 50, showing weak buying pressure, while the pair is consolidating within a rectangular pattern, which would be an indecisive market awaiting a breakout to determine which way the next major move is. The NZD/USD pair hovers around 0.5650, facing immediate resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. A break below 0.5650 could trigger a decline toward 0.5550, while a move above 0.5654 may strengthen bullish momentum toward 0.5794. The 14-day RSI below 50 suggests a bearish bias as the pair consolidates within a rectangular pattern. • A clear break below this level is likely to send NZD/USD to 0.5550 and potentially beyond that to the lowest level since October 2022, 0.5516. • On a break above this level, bullish short-term momentum is likely to gain strength, taking the cable toward 0.5794 and later to the psychological point of 0.5800. • Relative Strength Index is still below the 50 mark, confirming low selling pressure and thus high selling bias. • The pair breaks within a range, and a breakout in either direction could determine the next major trend for NZD/USD • If bullish momentum drives on, the next target is 0.5794, then 0.5800 and the top of the rectangle at 0.5810 • Aggressive move below the lower threshold of 0.5650 could lead to increased selling, strengthening bearish sentiment and increasing losses toward the lower support zones. • Both buyers and sellers are in limbo, with the price direction dependent on the breakout from this consolidation stage. The NZD/USD pair is at a crucial juncture, testing immediate support at 0.5650 while facing resistance at the nine-day EMA of 0.5654. The 14-day RSI has yet to cross above the 50 level, keeping the selling pressure bias with weak buying pressure. If it breaks below 0.5650, the pair might continue south toward 0.5550, then lock into a critical support area at 0.5516, which also happens to be its nadir since October 2022. Alternatively, a successful breakout above 0.5654 could propel the market into the hands of buyers and unlock the way to 0.5794, then on to the psychological resistance at 0.5800. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The range-bound situation between the two remains within a rectangle, hinting that long-term direction for market participants remains ambiguous. An exit from the rectangle will probably be the onset of the new trend, upward would indicate more renewed strength while downward would point towards further downsides. Trades must keep watch at the main levels as it can break strongly in either side, which could signal the direction for the coming movement of NZD/USD. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD maintains a rectangular kind of consolidation showing indecision. The immediate resistance is the nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 0.5654; the support region is at the 0.5650 levels. The relative strength index over 14 periods is below the 50 points, indicating there is weak purchasing pressure and strong selling pressure. A drop below 0.5650 could add pace to a fall toward 0.5550 and 0.5516, but a move above 0.5654 may push the upside toward 0.5794 and the psychological resistance at 0.5800. Given the price action is being confined to a limited range, the breakout will be a decisive move in determining the next trend direction. FORECAST NZD/USD managed to break above the nine-day EMA at 0.5654 and could have enough bullish momentum to rally towards 0.5794, which is the nine-week high that NZD/USD recently made. A strong move above this level could send the pair towards the psychological resistance at 0.5800 and then to the upper boundary of the rectangular pattern at 0.5810. A bullish breakout of this consolidation pattern could spur a trend reversal that attracts higher buyers and strengthens the uptrend even more. However, for consistent upside drive, the pair would require healthy fundamental support, such as positive economic data from New Zealand or a weakening U.S. dollar. On the opposite side of the fence, if NZD/USD fails to hold above the base level support at 0.5650, then bearish pressure could potentially strengthen and push it towards 0.5550. A deeper drop from here would push the pair into further losses, with the next significant stop at 0.5516 – the lowest level since October 2022. A bearish breakdown of the current rectangular pattern can trigger a selling pressure increase if global

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Currencies USD/JPY

USD/JPY Consolidates Amid Trade War Fears and BoJ Rate Hike Speculations

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  • February 11, 2025
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The USD/JPY currency pair remains in a consolidative phase around the 152.00 mark due to conflicting factors that are currently influencing market sentiment. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports have reignited global trade war fears, thereby boosting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. On the flip side, expectations of a delay by the Federal Reserve in terms of rate cuts amidst inflationary pressures are buoying the US Dollar. On the other hand, increasing speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates further are bolstering the Yen but are offset by concerns of instability in Japan’s economy due to Donald Trump’s policies. From a technical standpoint, the pair faces resistance at 152.50, with a downside bias suggesting potential declines toward the 151.00-150.90 zone if selling pressure intensifies. However, a breakout above 152.50 could pave the way for further gains toward 153.00 and beyond. Traders now await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data for clearer direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • The new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will likely disrupt global trade, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of JPY and raising concerns about the stability of Japan’s economy. • As inflation remains above the 2% target, growing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may strengthen the Yen. • The Federal Reserve’s decision on rate cuts, which is largely dependent on Powell’s testimony and US inflation figures, will be crucial in determining the next move of USD/JPY. The USD/JPY pair is at a critical juncture as multiple factors shape its trajectory. Recent US tariffs under Donald Trump have only added fuel to concerns of a global trade war, making the Japanese Yen a safe haven currency while sowing uncertainty over the stability of Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, speculations about additional interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan continue to be positive for the Yen as inflation remains higher than the 2 percent target of the central bank. Meanwhile, any signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell or upcoming data that could either accelerate or restrain monetary policy should propel the course in the USD currency. It looks like resistance and support of key levels appear below at around 152.50. Thus a sustained pull from the inside bar zone may turn out towards significant further deterioration at 151.00 – 150.90. Of late, markets continue to keep themselves busy focusing keenly over future economic events of the economic states. USD/JPY still trades in the range, though, with fresh tariffs by Trump fueling fear of a full-blown trade war that strengthens the Yen. Uncertainty in Fed rate cut also helps support the USD. BoJ’s potential rate hike further impacts the sentiment. 152.50 resistance and 151.00-150.90 support form the pair’s next direction of movement. Further direction would now be sought on Powell’s testimony and US inflation data. • The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by President Trump increases global trade tensions, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. • Inflation above the 2% target would further encourage the Bank of Japan to increase interest rates, supporting the JPY. • Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and US inflation data, which will help decide the central bank’s next monetary policy move. • The US Dollar is buoyed by growing hopes that the Fed will postpone the rate cuts, as economic and labor market conditions are surprisingly robust. • USD/JPY has hit a significant resistance zone at 152.50 where the 100- and 200-day SMAs are located. • If the pair falls below this crucial support zone, it will create further selling momentum to the psychological 150.00 mark. • Traders remain vigilant in the days ahead as geopolitics, inflation figures, and the decisions of the central banks influence the USD/JPY direction. USD/JPY is still trading in a consolidation mode due to the uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the decisions of the central banks. Recent 25% tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump on imports of steel and aluminum have resurfaced fears of a trade war, making the safe haven Japanese Yen an attractive bet for traders. However, the possibility of retaliatory measures and disruption in trade agreements against Japan’s economy has kept further JPY gains at bay. Meanwhile, expectations of more rate hikes by the BoJ continue to be supportive of the Yen, with policymakers indicating that the increase might reach 1% by the second half of the fiscal year. USD/JPY Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA It will be hard for the BoJ to avoid hiking the rate further, given that inflation in Japan is consistently above the central bank’s 2% target. On the other hand, the US Dollar remains strong as market players anticipate the Federal Reserve may delay lowering interest rates due to concerns of sustained inflation. Investors will be on the lookout for the congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US consumer inflation figures released shortly, which would shed light on the central bank’s intentions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY pair is consolidating near the 152.00 level, facing strong resistance at 152.50, where the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) converge. A decisive break above this key level could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing the pair towards the 153.00 psychological mark, with the next resistance around 153.75. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 151.30 level, followed by the 151.00-150.90 zone, which has acted as a strong base in recent sessions. A sustained move below this range could accelerate the bearish momentum, exposing the pair to further declines toward the 150.55 intermediate support and the crucial 150.00 psychological level. Besides that, oscillators on the daily chart are in negative territory but have not entered the oversold zone, and thus selling pressure might continue unless a strong bullish catalyst appears. FORECAST The USD/JPY currency pair might be on the path for a bullish breakout if it succeeds in sustaining its move above the

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Commodities Gold

Gold prices surged past $2,900: Trump’s tariffs and global uncertainty fuel safe-haven demand

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  • February 11, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) continues its bullish momentum, breaching the $2,900 mark to hit a fresh all-time high amidst growing safe-haven demand. The surge is driven by US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs on commodities, escalating global trade war concerns, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Other positives include the prospect of increasing inflation with the pro-protectionist policies of President Trump, thus making gold more attractive as an economic uncertainty hedge. A weak US Dollar bounce and an overbought market have resulted in some intraday profit-taking before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. Even though the precious metal experienced some minor pullbacks, the bigger picture is bullish, and strong support is at key technical levels above $2,800, which supports additional upside. KEY LOOKOUTS • Global uncertainty rises with threats of US retaliation and reciprocal tariffs on commodities • Increasing skirmishes, in the Middle East for one, only heighten fears in markets that drive even greater demand for gold as an inflation hedge against volatility • Fed rate policy and future course under inflation concern and a surprising strong labor market. • Despite minor pullbacks, gold’s strong support above $2,800 and bullish trends suggest further upside potential in the coming sessions. Gold’s bullish momentum remains intact as it continues to trade above the $2,900 mark, driven by escalating trade war fears following Trump’s new tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors are turning to the safe-haven metal amid uncertainties surrounding global economic policies and Middle East conflicts. A stronger US Dollar and profit-taking have caused slight pullbacks, but gold’s strong technical support near $2,800 suggests limited downside risks. The market now awaits Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which could provide further clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate stance and influence gold’s next move. Gold price continues to hold strong above $2,900 on the back of Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which increase safe-haven demand. Even minor pullbacks are capped by strong support near $2,800. Fed Chair Powell’s testimony may shape gold’s next move. • Gold price surges to a record high as safe-haven demand increases. • New US tariffs on commodities raise the specter of a global trade war, making gold more attractive. • Uncertainties, especially in the Middle East, push investors towards gold as a hedge. • Expectations of inflation because of Trump’s protectionist stance might influence the rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. • A modest recovery in the USD results in some profit-taking in the prices of gold. • Gold is well-supported above $2,800 and is limited in downside risks despite minor corrections. • Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments, which may affect the future course of gold. Gold’s price keeps on its bullish trend, going past the $2,900 mark and reaching a new all-time high as investors seek safety amid rising economic and geopolitical uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs on commodities, along with his plans for reciprocal duties on other countries, have fueled fears of a global trade war, significantly boosting demand for gold. Furthermore, increased political tensions, especially in the Middle East, have also contributed to gold’s safe-haven status. However, some intraday profit-taking occurred due to a minor US Dollar recovery. Yet, the bullish sentiment remains firm, with technical support levels around $2,800 capping the downside. XAU/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Looking ahead, market participants are watching the Federal Reserve’s policy stance very closely as Trump’s protectionist policies are likely to drive inflation higher, and this might have an impact on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. A hawkish stance from the central bank would strengthen the US Dollar and cap gold’s gains, while a dovish approach would further support the yellow metal’s rally. Investors are also waiting for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, which may give a clue about the Fed’s view on inflation and interest rates. While short-term fluctuations are possible, the broader technical setup suggests that gold is still on an uptrend, and strong demand is likely to keep prices elevated in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a strong uptrend, comfortably above the $2,900 level, and with key support around the $2,800 level. Any pullback towards $2,886-$2,882 should attract fresh buying interest, which will reinforce the bullish outlook. A decisive break below this zone may push prices towards the $2,855-$2,852 region, but downside risks are limited because of strong demand. On the flip side, yesterday’s resistance came in near $2,943-$2,950; a next leg higher probably targets the $3,000 mark, but it is reflected in the daily chart – the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI). The next leg higher might mean some consolidation or short-term correction. Traders will look forward to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony and the US Dollar’s movement for further directional cues. FORECAST The medium-term bullishness in gold will likely continue for the near term, with price action testing new higher resistance levels. If this buying pressure remains strong, then the next target to the upside would be in the $2,943-$2,950 area, with the psychological $3,000 barrier being a major obstacle before breaking above to start a new rally and take the long-term uptrend much further. Geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, and safe-haven demand will continue to fuel gold prices. The positive view on the yellow metal will continue. But, the price may see some pullbacks because of profit-taking and the US Dollar’s strengthening. If the price falls below $2,900, the initial support is seen around $2,886-$2,882, and the downside risks will extend toward the $2,855-$2,852 zone. Another more aggressive push in correction would push prices closer to the $2,834 level, but that level is expected to attract buyers, thus limiting further declines. Market sentiment will be highly driven by the monetary stance of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell’s testimony as any hints of a prolonged rise in higher interest rates would force short-term downward pressure on gold.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats: Uncertainty Looms Over Global Trade

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  • February 10, 2025
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EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 after an initial dip, but market uncertainty remains as investors react to US President Trump’s renewed tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. The Euro faces additional pressure from potential trade tensions with the US and concerns over the ECB’s ability to support inflation. The speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde and testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell can drive monetary policy expectations. On the technical side, EUR/USD seems to have difficulty around resistance at 1.0500. More importantly, a strong support line remains at 1.0177 that could make or break the pair’s next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • Rekindled fears of the trade war on steel and aluminum imports at 25% tariffs have impacted the global markets and the stability of the Euro. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence EUR/USD movements and market sentiment. • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony may provide crucial insights into the US central bank’s interest rate stance, affecting the USD’s strength. • EUR/USD faces strong resistance near 1.0500, while key support at 1.0177 remains critical for determining the pair’s next directional move. EUR/USD recovers above 1.0300, but uncertainty lingers as Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports fuel trade war fears. Investors remain cautious ahead of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, both of which could influence monetary policy expectations. The Euro faces additional pressure from trade tensions with the US and weak inflation concerns in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 shaping its next directional move. EUR/USD rebounds above 1.0300 despite uncertainty from Trump’s tariff threats on steel and aluminum imports. Investors await ECB Lagarde’s speech and Fed Powell’s testimony for monetary policy cues. The pair faces resistance at 1.0500, while key support lies at 1.0177. • The pair recovers above 1.0300 despite initial weakness driven by renewed US tariff fears. • Proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports raise concerns over global trade tensions and impact market sentiment. • Investors await ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for insights into the Eurozone’s monetary policy and economic outlook. • The Federal Reserve Chair’s testimony before Congress may provide crucial signals on future interest rate decisions. • The US Dollar Index wobbles around 108.20, maintaining strength on global trade war fears. •The Euro faces additional strain from potential reciprocal tariffs and weaker-than-expected inflation levels. • EUR/USD struggles near 1.0500 resistance, while key support at 1.0177 remains crucial for the pair’s next move. EUR/USD rebounded above 1.0300 in Monday’s European session following a weak open as renewed fears over US President Trump’s 25% proposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum reignite the specter of a global trade war and weigh on the market sentiment that increases demand for safe-haven assets. The investors are closely following ECB President Christine Lagarde speech at the European Parliament and Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony, which could affect the expectations over monetary policy. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index stays strong near 108.20 due to still uncertain global markets. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Trade tensions, softer inflation than expected in the Eurozone, and the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the ECB are weighing on EUR/USD. The Euro remains vulnerable as economic contraction risks persist, and analysts warn that the US tariff measures could further hurt the European economy. Technical indicators show the pair struggling near resistance at 1.0500, with key support at 1.0177 playing a crucial role in determining the next directional move. Traders will also look to US CPI data, which will be released later this week, and how that will influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance and the US Dollar’s strength. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around 1.0300, and resistance is located near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, while support is found at 1.0177. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the 40-60 range, showing a neutral trend with no clear directional momentum. A break above 1.0500 could trigger further gains, while a decline below 1.0177 may push the pair towards 1.0100. Market participants are watching upcoming economic events for clues on future movements, with the pair likely to stay range-bound unless a strong catalyst emerges. FORECAST EUR/USD has the potential to rise if it manages to break above the 50-day EMA at 1.0436, with the next resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500. A decisive push above this region would lead to further strides towards 1.0600, lifted by enhancing Eurozone economic performance data or more dovish US Federal Reserve statements. Another boost comes in case ECB President Christine Lagarde exudes confidence in the current stability of the Eurozone’s economy or gives hints of more tempered rate cuts that might make the Euro regain its strength. A weaker US Dollar, due to either lower-than-expected US inflation data or dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will add further fuel to the upside in EUR/USD. Downside risks include a failure for EUR/USD to hold above 1.0300, where it could face immediate support at 1.0177 (January 13 low) and further declines toward the critical 1.0100 level. A break below 1.0100 could see a test of parity (1.0000) as renewed global trade war fears, following Trump’s tariff threats or worsening Eurozone economic conditions, weigh on the pair. Deeper losses for EUR/USD could be seen if the ECB turns dovish and cuts rates aggressively in response to weak inflation or if the US Dollar strengthens on hawkish Fed comments. Further, geopolitical uncertainty or adverse economic surprise from the Eurozone might hasten the bearish thrust.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Steady around 0.5700, Traders Keep an Eye on US NFP and Fed Policy Cues

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  • February 7, 2025
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NZD/USD stays firm around 0.5700 as market players remain cautious of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release which is expected to have an influence on the monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar keeps up its rebound momentum with support coming from a jump in Treasury yields, pushing the Dollar Index DXY toward 107.70. Market sentiment is fragile due to rising risk aversion with all these uncertainties about global trade. But ongoing discussions about tariffs by US and China could offer some comfort. Further, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is going to slash 50 basis points in February and put further pressure on Kiwi Dollar. KEY LOOKOUTS US Nonfarm Payrolls, which would shape monetary policy at the Fed, would impact the NZD/USD pairs volatility. • The Greenback’s rebounding, with a boost from the Treasury yields and economic data, may put upward pressure on NZD/USD if risk aversion increases. • Markets are pricing in 92% of a 50 basis-point rate cut in February, which can weigh on the New Zealand Dollar. • Risk sentiment may shape the movement of NZD/USD as US and Chinese leaders discuss potential rollbacks of tariffs. NZD/USD remains in a cautious range as traders await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which could significantly impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. The US Dollar continues to recover, bolstered by rising Treasury yields and stronger economic data, pressuring the Kiwi Dollar. Meanwhile, global risk sentiment remains fragile with trade uncertainties continuing, though the discussions between the US and China regarding potential rollbacks of tariffs might bring some comfort. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also expected to cut its rates by 50 basis points in February, adding more downside risks to NZD/USD as the market has priced in a high probability of further easing. NZD/USD remains range-bound ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data that may impact the Federal Reserve policy. The greenback has managed to regain ground, buoyed by Treasury yields, and has been exerting pressure on the Kiwi Dollar. Expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in February by the RBNZ are also affecting NZD/USD. • A US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to impact the Fed’s monetary policy and trigger market volatility. • Greenback trades are regaining strength on the back of rising treasury yields with DXY approaching 107.70. • Markets are expecting that in February, there will be a 50-point rate cut; it will give pressure on New Zealand Dollar. • Increased risk aversion due to trade and economic insecurity is impacting upside momentum for NZD/USD pairs. • The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.22% and 4.44%, supporting the US Dollar against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi. • Market sentiment and the movement of NZD/USD may be influenced by the discussions between US and Chinese leaders regarding the possible rollbacks of tariffs. • NZD/USD is still relatively subdued following the weak performance of the previous session, failing to gain bullish momentum due to a cautious market outlook. NZD/USD stands at the levels around 0.5700 and is currently flat as participants take a wait-and-see approach before US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) arrives and is known to impact Federal Reserve monetary policy prospects. Meanwhile, the Dollar index continues rallying due to upward momentum in the Treasury yields; it has also pushed the Dollar Index towards levels around 107.70. Risk sentiment remains fragile as the world continues to be uncertain about global trade, especially on the US-China front, though potential tariff rollbacks may help alleviate some of the pain. Moreover, the latest US Initial Jobless Claims were higher than anticipated, which added another layer of uncertainty to the market. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Another reason the Kiwi Dollar is in a tough situation is that it is expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, RBNZ, will announce a 50 basis point rate cut in February, taking interest rates to 3.75%. With market expectations at a 92% probability of additional monetary easing, NZD/USD may suffer from increased pressure on the downside. The weak price action exhibited by the pair is due to investors waiting for key economic data that will steer short-term price action. US Treasury yields continue to climb, adding further strength to the US Dollar, which restricts NZD/USD’s recovery from the previous session’s losses. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is trading near 0.5680, unable to make a sustainable rally as it was capped by the resistance area of 0.5700. The pair remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), suggesting a bearish trend. A break below the immediate support at 0.5660 could be extended further lower toward 0.5620. A decisive move above 0.5700 may push the pair further to the next resistance at 0.5745. The RSI is near the neutral 50 level, showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. Traders will carefully monitor the US NFP releases for breakouts or further drops in NZD/USD. FORECAST NZD/USD will drop further if NFP data strengthen the case of a hawkish Federal Reserve which pushes the Dollar higher. Higher Treasury yields after a strong job report will add to the views of prolonged periods of higher interest rates, with NZD/USD falling towards key support 0.5660. If the bearish momentum is maintained, the next target could be 0.5620, with further declines towards the psychological level of 0.5600 in an extended selloff. Expectations of a 50 basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February could keep the Kiwi Dollar under pressure in the near term. On the positive side, if US economic data disappoints and weakens the US Dollar, NZD/USD might recover above 0.5700. A softer NFP report might fuel speculation of an earlier-than-expected policy shift by the Federal Reserve, which would reduce the strength of the Dollar. The pair could test resistance at 0.5745, and further gains may extend toward 0.5780. Any positive news in US-China trade relations, such as the rollbacks of tariffs, will enhance risk sentiment and

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bearish Outlook Prevails Below 1.2450 Amid Key Economic Data Releases

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  • January 30, 2025
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GBP/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, trading modestly higher near 1.2445 in early European hours on Thursday. Despite a slight decline in the US Dollar offering temporary support, the pair holds below the key 100-day EMA, maintaining a negative outlook. The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, suggesting potential consolidation. Key support levels lie at 1.2400-1.2390, with further downside targets at 1.2307 and 1.2160. On the upside, resistance is at 1.2570, followed by 1.2645 and 1.2778. Traders are now focusing on the US Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales to be released soon for further direction in markets . KEY LOOKOUTS • A key point below the 100-day EMA continues to maintain downside pressure below this barrier down to 1.2400 and lower 1.2307 and then 1.2160 support. • There is strong major resistance at 1.2570 with potential higher resistance to be seen within 1.2645 near the 100-day EMA and 1.2778 at the last December 10 high. • US Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales could determine the course of short term market action today for GBP/USD. • The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, indicating possible sideways movement before a decisive breakout or breakdown in the coming sessions. The GBP/USD pair continues to trade under bearish pressure, struggling below the 100-day EMA and maintaining a downside bias as long as it remains under 1.2450. Key support levels to watch include the 1.2400-1.2390 region, with further declines potentially extending to 1.2307 and 1.2160 if selling pressure persists. On the positive side, resistance at 1.2570 is the first major barrier, followed by 1.2645 and 1.2778. Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming US economic data, including Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales, which could provide fresh directional cues. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI remains near the midline, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a decisive move in either direction. GBP/USD stays bearish below 1.2450, and it finds strong support at 1.2400-1.2390 with a possible slide to 1.2307. It will find resistance at 1.2570 to limit upside potential. The Q4 GDP in the US is going to determine the market’s direction. • As long as it is below the 100-day EMA, GBP/USD is likely to remain under pressure. • The first support zone is at 1.2400-1.2390, with further downside risks targeting 1.2307 and 1.2160 if selling momentum increases. • The initial resistance is at 1.2570, followed by stronger hurdles at 1.2645 (100-day EMA) and 1.2778 (December 10 high). • Traders are watching Q4 GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales reports, which could impact market sentiment and price direction. • The RSI indicator suggests possible consolidation before a decisive breakout, with no strong momentum in either direction for now. • A mild decline in the US Dollar has helped GBP/USD post modest gains, but the overall trend remains bearish. • If GBP/USD drops below 1.2400, it may trigger further selling pressure, potentially dragging the pair toward 1.2307 and 1.2160. The GBP/USD pair remains in a bearish trend as long as it trades below the 100-day EMA, keeping downside risks in play. The pair currently hovers around 1.2445 in early European trading hours and has struggled to gain any momentum despite a mild decline in the US Dollar. The key support zone lies at 1.2400-1.2390, and a break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, driving prices toward 1.2307 and possibly 1.2160. On the flip side, resistance at 1.2570 remains a crucial barrier, with additional hurdles at 1.2645 and 1.2778, which could cap any bullish attempts. The 14-day RSI hovers near the midline, suggesting a phase of consolidation before the next major move. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming US Q4 GDP data, Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales reports, which could influence GBP/USD price action. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading might boost the US Dollar, reinforcing the bearish outlook for GBP/USD. However, if the data disappoints, the pair could see a temporary recovery, challenging key resistance levels. Traders should also be on the lookout for global risk sentiment and central bank policy expectations since they could enhance volatility in the pair. On balance, these factors present a bearish view in the short run, but only a breakout above primary resistance areas will negate a bearish outlook. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD stays in a bearish trend as long as it stays below the 100-day EMA, which serves as a significant resistance level at the present time. The tandem has support right off the bat at 1.2400-1.2390, coalescing into the psychological level and the Jan 29 low. A firm breakout under this area could trigger further drops to 1.2307 and 1.2160. To the upside, resistance stands at 1.2570, with next target at the 100-day EMA at 1.2645 and the Dec 10 high at 1.2778. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the midline, indicating a potential consolidation phase before a breakout. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands suggest that the pair is trading near the lower boundary, signaling that any break below key support levels could accelerate bearish momentum. FORECAST Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, GBP/USD has key resistance levels that could limit downside movements and trigger a recovery. The first upside barrier is at 1.2570, which corresponds to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. In case the pair breaks above this level, the next resistance would be at 1.2645, the 100-day EMA, which has historically been a strong resistance zone. A break above this level could be sustained and fuel bullish momentum toward 1.2778, the highest level reached on December 10. If it is much weaker than expected in terms of either GDP growth or the labor market in the United States, this could weaken the US Dollar further to support a higher move in GBP/USD. The bearish outlook remains dominant as long as GBP/USD trades below the key 100-day EMA, with immediate support at the 1.2400-1.2390 region. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing

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