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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Grapples Below 1.0900 on Overbought Conditions, Trade War Jitters

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  • March 10, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is under selling pressure below the significant 1.0900 barrier, as an overbought technical environment and fresh global trade war tensions offer resistance. Despite its bullish tone above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the pair has dropped to approximately 1.0830 during early European trade on Monday. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 70 indicates limited upside potential in the near term, which may trigger possible consolidation. The traders now look forward to crucial economic indicators, such as Germany’s Industrial Production and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, for fresh directional signals. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD encounters strong resistance at the 1.0900 level; a strong breakout can trigger a rally towards 1.0936 and 1.1000. • The RSI at 71 indicates overbought levels, which could signal a pullback or consolidation prior to the next directional movement. • A decline below 1.0712 could gain traction in the bearish direction, leaving the pair vulnerable to the 100-day EMA level of 1.0544 and lower. • Traders look to Germany’s Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Confidence Index for new market catalysts and possible EUR/USD volatility. The EUR/USD currency pair remains under pressure, fluctuating around 1.0830 as it fights to cross above the important psychological resistance of 1.0900. In spite of trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 71 shows minimal near-term upside potential, pointing towards a possible phase of consolidation. Market sentiment is still bearish as fears of a possible global trade war continue to escalate, weakening appetite for riskier currencies such as the Euro. Market participants are now focusing their attention on forthcoming economic releases, such as Germany’s Industrial Production figures and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, for new hints that might drive the next direction in the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD is held below the 1.0900 resistance line on overbought RSI readings and concerns of global trade war. Investors are waiting for significant Eurozone releases for new direction. Continuing to hold above the 100-day EMA remains bullish to a modest extent. • EUR/USD trades near 1.0830, unable to gain traction above the psychological barrier of 1.0900. • Overbought RSI at levels around 71 suggests potential consolidation or minor retracement in the near term. • The currency pair is in a positive skew, trading above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), upholding the bullish setup. • The nearest resistance is at 1.0900, with additional upside targets at 1.0936 and the pivotal 1.1000 level. • First support is at 1.0712, with additional downside risk to 1.0544 (100-day EMA) and 1.0360. • Risk appetite is under pressure due to global trade war tensions, impacting demand for risk assets such as the Euro. • Attention is on the forthcoming economic indicators, such as Germany’s Industrial Production and Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for new directional signals. EUR/USD is still in the spotlight among investors with increasing fears regarding the overall global economic environment. Market sentiment has become fearful as the specter of a possible trade war discourages risk appetite, and investors are keeping a sharp eye on political and economic happenings. In such a setup, the Euro tends to get exposed to overall market movements, particularly when the world is experiencing heightened uncertainty. At the start of the week, market players are keeping an eye on developments that may influence the overall financial environment and currency fluctuations. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Investors are also anticipating major economic data releases from Europe, including Germany’s Industrial Production numbers and the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence. These reports will give new information about the state of the European economy and can impact investor sentiment. With volatility likely to continue, market participants are still paying close attention to macroeconomic variables and geopolitical events that can influence the direction of major currency pairs like EUR/USD in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has a moderately bullish bias as it remains above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), showing underlying support. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 70 level signals overbought, and therefore, the pair might experience resistance in further extending its rise without a retracement pullback. The psychological barrier at 1.0900 continues to be the major obstacle, and a decisive breach above here could set the stage for more gains. Conversely, if the selling gathers pace, the support levels will be monitored to resist a deeper pullback. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to break through the near-term resistance at 1.0900, it might indicate fresh bullish strength in the pair. A successful break might lead the way towards 1.0936, a recent swing high, and then the psychological level at 1.1000. Strong buying interest and positive economic news from the Eurozone might also sustain this upward move, prompting traders to position for higher levels in the near term. Conversely, if the pair is unable to sustain its current levels and comes under mounting selling pressure, it may move towards the initial support level of 1.0712. A fall below this level can initiate a more severe correction towards the 100-day EMA of 1.0544, with additional weakness potentially pulling the pair down to 1.0360. Any disappointing economic data or heightened global risk aversion could accelerate the downside move, weakening the Euro further against the US Dollar.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Recover from One-Week Low as Key US and Canadian Jobs Report Looms

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  • March 7, 2025
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The USD/CAD pair recovers from a one-week low, restoring the 1.4300 level as downward bearish Crude Oil prices pressure the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as major employment reports loom from the US and Canada. This is the pair’s first positive action in three days, spurred by repositioning trades and market expectations of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. Nevertheless, a persistent US Dollar (USD) selling bias, spurred by Trump trade tariffs concerns and expected Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, restricts further rallies. In turn, Trump’s short-term tariff reprieves for Canada and Mexico alleviate trade tensions, possibly supporting the CAD and capping USD/CAD’s upside. Traders now await job data releases for clearer directional cues. KEY LOOKOUTS • The pair recovers above 1.4300, snapping a three-day losing streak as traders reposition ahead of key US and Canadian employment data. • Bearish crude oil prices weaken the Canadian Dollar, acting as a tailwind for USD/CAD, but potential BoC policy decisions could cap gains. • Ongoing USD selling, fueled by fears of Trump’s trade tariffs and potential Fed rate cuts, keeps the pair’s bullish momentum in check. • The US Nonfarm Payrolls and Canada’s employment report will be major drivers, dictating the near-term price action and investor sentiment in USD/CAD. The USD/CAD pair recovers from a one-week low, rising back above 1.4300, as the market players reposition prior to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data and Canada’s employment numbers. Poor Crude Oil prices are still depressing the Canadian Dollar (CAD), supporting the pair slightly, but the hopes that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will soon halt rate cuts could cap the pair’s upside. At the same time, a persistent US Dollar (USD) selling bias, driven by Trump’s trade tariffs and uncertainty regarding possible Federal Reserve (Fed) rate reductions, contributes to the uncertainty. With market actors waiting for new employment statistics, the short-term prospects for USD/CAD continue to be reliant on economic releases and general risk sentiment. The USD/CAD currency pair bounces higher around 1.4300 due to poor Crude Oil prices and repositioning for major US and Canadian jobs data. Yet, the USD selling bias due to Trump’s trade policy and possible Fed rate cuts might cap higher gains. Sellers now look to NFP and Canada’s employment report for more direction. • USD/CAD rallies from a week low, ending a three-day losing streak due to market repositioning. • Bearish crude oil prices weigh on the Canadian Dollar, aiding USD/CAD’s upside. • Fears of Trump’s trade tariffs and possible Fed rate cuts constrain the US Dollar’s strength. • Speculation that the Bank of Canada might leave rates unchanged might cap USD/CAD’s advances. • Traders wait for the NFP report, which will be important in forming USD price action. • Canadian employment numbers will offer additional guidance for the pair’s direction. • Trump’s exemption of Canadian and Mexican imports from tariffs for one month mitigates fears of trade wars, weakly bolstering the CAD. The USD/CAD pair continues to be under spotlight as the release of US and Canadian employment reports is awaited by traders with anticipation. The releases will offer major indications of both economies’ health and might sway monetary policy moves in the future. Market participants are also intently observing the global economic landscape, especially economic policies and trade relations, which have a significant influence on the sentiment of investors. With evolving trade agreements and central banks monitoring economic stability, traders are aligning themselves depending on possible changes in policy and economic outlook. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Another significant determinant of market sentiment is the effect of crude oil prices on the Canadian economy. Being an oil-exporting country, Canada’s economic performance is directly related to the movement in oil demand and supply. Furthermore, recent trade policy developments, such as temporary tariff relief on Canadian and Mexican products, are being watched for their long-term effects on trade relations and economic growth. As investors wait for major employment figures, sentiment is still cautious, and future direction will be based on general economic data and geopolitical events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD pair has rebounded from a one-and-a-half-week low around the 1.4240-1.4235 area, retaking the 1.4300 level. This bounce indicates a possible short-term support area around 1.4240, and the 1.4350-1.4380 area could be the next resistance point. Despite this, the pair is still at risk of negative moves in a persistent bear trend in the US Dollar (USD). Should bearish selling intensify, breaking below 1.4240 may pave the way for continued losses to 1.4200 or worse. Meanwhile, momentum oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages provide a neutral to slightly bearish inclination, with market participants holding out for vital employment releases to confirm directional themes. FORECAST If the US employment figures beat expectations and favor the US Dollar (USD), the USD/CAD pair may pick up more steam. A move above the 1.4350 resistance level can take the pair to the 1.4380-1.4400 region, where more bullish momentum can be initiated. Additionally, if crude oil prices keep falling, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) can weaken, further favoring an up move in USD/CAD. A hawkish policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) or rising market risk aversion would also propel the pair higher as investors turn to safe-haven assets. Conversely, softer US job data or economic slowdown signals would trigger a fresh USD sell-off, sending USD/CAD back towards the 1.4240 support area. Should this level be broken, the next key support is around 1.4200, which would leave the door open for further declines. Also, if the Bank of Canada (BoC) is to indicate a more stable or hawkish monetary policy, this might make the CAD stronger, capping gains for USD/CAD. Reversal of crude oil price also might lend some support to the Canadian Dollar, making it more likely that the pair could drop.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Stays Firm in Face of German Debt Reforms and ECB Rate Decision: Market Analysis and Key Drivers

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  • March 6, 2025
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EUR/USD stays firm at the 1.0800 level as investors await the highly expected interest rate decision of the European Central Bank (ECB), with a 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% on the cards. Market mood is influenced by Germany’s mooted 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which may affect inflation and economic growth. In the meantime, US President Trump’s temporary easing of car tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated fears of a trade war, with the result that the US Dollar has weakened. Soft US private jobs data have also raised the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June. Now, investors wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks and future US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) releases to guide the markets further. KEY LOOKOUTS • The European Central Bank is likely to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, impacting EUR/USD price action and investor sentiment. • Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and extended borrowing capacity may affect inflation expectations and the economic outlook of the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico has reduced trade tensions, but possible tariffs on German cars continue to be a major risk. • Soft US private hiring data have fueled speculation of a rate cut by the Fed, which makes the release of Friday’s NFP a highly market-moving event. EUR/USD continues to be a hot topic for traders as significant economic and policy events are played out. The ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate cut to 2.5% has the potential to influence future monetary policy, while Germany’s planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. In addition, President Trump of the US has temporarily softened auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which has softened trade tensions but leaves uncertainty over possible tariffs on German automobiles. Furthermore, disappointing US private employment data have also spurred hopes for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, and thus, coming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release will be a pivotal driver in establishing the direction of the US Dollar. EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0800 as the market looks to the ECB’s anticipated 25 bps rate reduction and Christine Lagarde’s comments. Germany’s infrastructure fund and US trade policy contribute to the uncertainty, while soft US jobs data drives speculation of a June Fed rate cut. • The European Central Bank is anticipated to reduce the Deposit Facility Rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, influencing EUR/USD action. • A planned 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and eased borrowing ceilings could fuel inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone. • Trump’s temporary easing of auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico softens trade tensions, but there is still uncertainty regarding possible tariffs on German cars. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen for the fourth day in a row, trading around 104.00, its lowest since four months ago. • Soft private sector employment growth has increased hopes of a June Federal Reserve rate reduction, impacting USD strength. • The pair is still robust above the 200-day EMA, with the RSI > 60, which means bullish momentum. • Market participants are monitoring the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report closely for more cues on the direction of Fed monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair remains steady as investors focus on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, marking the fifth consecutive reduction. This decision comes amid Germany’s proposed 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund, which aims to boost economic growth and could influence inflation in the Eurozone. Traders are eagerly waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s post-decision remarks for signals about future policy guidance and the overall economic landscape. Meanwhile, market sentiments are still under pressure due to fears of possible US tariffs on European products, especially German cars. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView On the international side, US trade actions and economic indicators continue to be major drivers of the forex market. US President Donald Trump’s temporary easing of automobile tariffs on Mexico and Canada has alleviated trade tensions, but uncertainty persists with possible tariffs on European goods. Separately, soft US private jobs data has fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Investors now await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for additional insight into the health of the US labor market. Any meaningful changes in economic statistics or monetary policy decisions made by the Fed or ECB can influence currency trends in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is well placed around the 1.0800 mark, demonstrating bullish sentiment on the charts. The pair has convincingly broken above the December 6 high of 1.0630, further strengthening an uptrend. It is still trading in excess of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0640, marking long-term robustness. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above 60, a sign of extended buying pressure. On the down side, January 27’s high of 1.0533 is the critical support area, and the subsequent resistance point for Euro bulls is the November 6 high of 1.0937. In general, the technical perspective remains bullish for additional gains unless substantial bearish drivers arise. FORECAST EUR/USD might enjoy additional strength if the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a prudent stance even with the anticipated rate reduction. If ECB President Christine Lagarde provides cues of a diminished rate-cut pace in the future or hints at optimism regarding Eurozone economic rebound, the Euro can pick up momentum. Also, Germany’s planned infrastructure fund would help boost investor sentiment about the region’s growth prospects. A softer US Dollar, based on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, might also sustain EUR/USD’s rally. In case the pair convincingly crosses above the 1.0937 resistance mark, it would test higher levels in the future sessions. EUR/USD risks facing downward pressures if the ECB turns more dovish, reflecting further aggressive rate cuts. Any weakness in the Eurozone economics, notably in

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strength Fades as Range-Bound Trading Takes Center Stage

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  • February 28, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a range-bound stage following the recent two-week Pound Sterling strength that has now faded. According to analysts at UOB Group, although the sharp decline in GBP may be prolonged, oversold levels point to any drop being contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 level. A decisive dip below 1.2570 is not anticipated in the short term, with the overall expectation for GBP/USD to trade between 1.2520 and 1.2670. This transition represents the end of bullish momentum, with a phase of consolidation for the currency pair now to follow. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is likely to trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range, indicating the end of its recent bullish momentum. • As the Pound fell sharply, the oversold market conditions indicate that downside may be contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 band. • The support level is at 1.2570, and resistance is at about 1.2670, outlining the possible trading limits for GBP/USD. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the erosion of bullish momentum, which points towards consolidation instead of further advance. The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a consolidation mode, with the recent bullish trend having lost steam, according to analysts. The sudden decline of the Pound Sterling indicates possible further falls, yet oversold levels suggest the downside may not be extensive within the 1.2570–1.2640 zone. Major support is at 1.2570, while the resistance lies around 1.2670, which is the likely trading range in the near future. The break of 1.2615 validated the reversal of the uptrend, moving the outlook towards a range-bound move instead of an extension of the rally. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range as market sentiment transforms. GBP/USD has turned range-bound, with support at 1.2570 and resistance at 1.2670. Oversold levels indicate limited downside, while momentum changes point towards consolidation in the offing. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range. • GBP/USD should trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range as bullish momentum ebbs. • The sudden fall in GBP in recent times indicates further decline, but oversold levels might restrict downward movement. • 1.2570 is the key support level, and 1.2670 is close to the resistance level, setting the range for expected trading. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the reversal of GBP’s recent strength, and a consolidation phase was indicated. • It is possible for further dips to occur, with a clean breakdown below 1.2570 being improbable in the short run. • Markets need to keep an eye out for movements in the range with changes in sentiment and economic inputs determining GBP/USD prices. • The currency pair will more likely be sideways until new driving factors create a breakout beyond these set levels. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a stable phase at present, with investors following its trend closely. The movement of GBP/USD depends on general economic factors like inflation rates, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical factors, which dictate the value of currencies. Market sentiment is of utmost importance for determining the movement of GBP/USD, with investors evaluating economic policies and overall financial trends. Furthermore, external influences such as trade relations and central bank policies play a role in determining the long-term direction of the currency pair. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView During this phase, market participants are focusing on strategic decision-making according to market trends and fundamental indicators. The influence of financial institutions, economic reports, and policy announcements remains important in determining expectations. Knowledge of the overall economic environment is vital in making trading decisions, as global market conditions and investor sentiment significantly influence currency stability. Keeping abreast of major economic events and financial news continues to be important for those following the GBP/USD pair in today’s environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair shows a consolidation period, with the currency trading in a well-defined range. Major support is seen at 1.2570, and resistance at 1.2670 indicates limited short-term price movement. The break below 1.2615 reinforced the weakening of bullish energy, forming a range-bound pattern. Moving averages and RSI point towards neutral to weakly bearish sentiment, although oversold readings indicate stabilization potential. Traders are awaiting a breakout of this range, which may lead to the pair’s next directional move. FORECAST GBP/USD may try to breach the 1.2670 resistance point if upbeat economic data or a weaker US Dollar propels it. Dovish Federal Reserve cues, solid UK economic growth, or tame inflation levels are some of the factors that can give a boost to further rallies. A prolonged breach above this level can be a sign of the possibility of a longer-term bullish trend. On the other hand, bearish risks persist if the bearish tone gets stronger and pushes below the critical 1.2570 support. Deterioration in UK economic data, anxiety regarding interest rate policies, or a rise in the US Dollar could weigh down on GBP/USD. Once the pair moves below this support, it may leave the stage open for deeper falls, at least testing lower levels in the weeks ahead. Traders should also keep a close eye on economic releases, central bank announcements, and market trends to predict probable price movements.

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