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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies Near 1.0450 Amid Tariff Threats and FOMC Minutes Anticipation

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  • February 19, 2025
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EUR/USD trades near 1.0450 with mild gains in the Asian session, supported by a weaker US Dollar. However, market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns could bolster the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of a 25% tariff on vehicle, chip, and drug imports creates uncertainty, while Ukraine President Zelenskiy rescheduling his visit to Saudi Arabia indicates continued geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the Euro is under pressure as the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell short of expectations and rumors of successive ECB rate cuts hang over the currency. Investors shift their attention to the FOMC Minutes for more information on the Federal Reserve’s position regarding economic threats and monetary policy direction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors eagerly look for the FOMC Minutes to learn about the Fed’s position on inflation, interest rates, and possible economic threats. • The suggested 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports may fan trade tensions, tending to bolster the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. • The Euro comes under pressure with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling short of expectations and ECB rate cut rumors keeping pressure on the future path of the currency. • Tensions in Russia-Ukraine and the delayed Saudi Arabia trip by Zelenskiy keep markets guarded, which can influence risk mood and drive price action in EUR/USD. The EUR/USD currency pair continues to stay in the spotlight with the mixed trend of the currency market on global economic and political fronts. While a softer US Dollar gives the pair temporary boost, rising trade tensions with the imposition of tariffs by Trump on major imports can make the Greenback stronger, curbing the pair’s upside. Also contributing to volatility are geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Zelenskiy’s diplomatic moves. Weaker-than-forecasted economic sentiment data and anticipation of several ECB rate cuts on the Euro side keep the investors guarded. As FOMC Minutes are due to be released, traders will look closely for any indications of upcoming US monetary policy, which can trigger large market movements. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 as geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions make investors remain on guard. Markets look forward to FOMC Minutes to gauge the Fed’s policy attitude. • The pair trades around 1.0450 with support from a weaker US Dollar but is resistant to geopolitical and trade tensions. • A 25% levy on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports can heighten trade tensions and enhance the safe-haven status of the USD. • Market players seek indications on the policy orientation of the Fed, inflation prospects, and risk assessment of the economy. • The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was lower than forecasted, placing added pressure on the Euro amid talk of ECB interest rate reductions. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and Zelenskiy’s delayed Saudi Arabia trip contribute to market uncertainty and risk sentiment swings. • Increasing wagers on three ECB rate reductions this year may further burden the strength of the Euro. • Market participants are cautious as significant economic indicators and geopolitical events may trigger large price movements in the EUR/USD currency pair. The global economy is presently defined by a combination of economic policy and geopolitical occurrences, with trade tensions being at the forefront. US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports has sent investors into a tizzy, as it may affect worldwide supply chains and international trade relationships. In the meantime, the geopolitical front is still unclear, with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy delaying his visit to Saudi Arabia due to ongoing tensions with Russia. These advances build towards a hesitant market atmosphere wherein policymakers and businesses are observing intently the likely changes in trade policies and diplomacy. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Economic sentiment has been exhibiting divergent signs in the European space, with the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index not meeting forecasts. This has fueled debate over the European Central Bank’s next course of action regarding monetary policy, with market players speculating over potential interest rate changes. While economic growth continues to be the focus, disruptions in global trade and changes in economic policies create an added layer of uncertainty. As crucial reports and policy announcements are revealed, companies and investors are seeking insight into long-term economic strategies that may affect global trade, investments, and financial stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.0450 level, with major resistance and support levels that may determine its next direction. The pair is testing a pivotal price area where a breakout above resistance can indicate further upward momentum, while a fall below support can confirm a bearish trend. Traders are monitoring moving averages and RSI levels closely to determine market sentiment, with volume trends suggesting potential volatility in the future. As the FOMC Minutes and geopolitical events drive market direction, technical indicators will be instrumental in determining short-term price action and key entry or exit points for traders. FORECAST EUR/USD is uncertain as several factors drive its possible movement. On the positive side, if the market responds favorably to the FOMC Minutes, reflecting a dovish or cautious approach by the Federal Reserve, the US Dollar may weaken, enabling EUR/USD to pick up pace. Also, any indication of economic strength from the Eurozone or easing of trade tensions would help support the Euro. If the pair is able to break through crucial resistance levels, it could create the opportunity for further gains, drawing in bullish sentiment. To the downside, fears of growing trade tensions, especially Trump’s suggested tariffs on significant imports, could make the US Dollar a safe-haven currency, subjecting EUR/USD to downward pressure. In addition, the Euro is still exposed to speculation regarding several ECB rate reductions this year, which would negatively impact investor sentiment. Should economic indicators for the Eurozone continue to fall short of forecasts, the pair may have trouble sustaining stability, and a breach below major support levels would be a sign of further potential decline. Traders will be keenly watching upcoming economic reports and geopolitical events

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Falls Close to 0.5650 as Fed Rate Decision Nears: Risk-Off Mood and RBNZ Rate Cut Hopes Dampen Kiwi

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  • January 29, 2025
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NZD/USD continues to fall, touching close to 0.5650, as risk aversion builds up before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The market expects the Fed to keep its policy rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, with market participants listening for cues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell regarding future policy moves. Meanwhile, a little boost is given to the US Dollar from a cautious Fed outlook and the recent threat of tariffs by the former US President Donald Trump, who seeks to improve the production units at home. New Zealand Dollar remains under stress due to ever-increasing dovish expectations around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), with markets pricing in a high likelihood of another 50 bps rate cut in February. RBNZ Chief Economist Conway reconfirmed that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will move gradually towards neutral, further weakening the Kiwi. KEY LOOKOUTS • The Federal Reserve will make its policy decision, which is widely certain to leave the rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell’s comments might be the only clue about future monetary policy directions. • The Greenback makes a recovery on tariff threats from former President Trump on key imports, suggesting shifts in trade policy that may influence global currency markets and investor sentiment. • Markets are pricing in a 50 bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in February, with expectations of further easing weighing heavily on the New Zealand Dollar’s outlook. • Risk aversion, now persistent, ahead of a series of key central bank decisions continues to weigh on NZD/USD, as global investors increasingly seek out safe-haven assets, creating volatile currency valuation and broader financial market dynamics. NZD/USD remains on the back foot ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision as markets are expected to hold the rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech is going to be closely watched for policy cues that could impact the strength of the US Dollar. The Greenback has already gained significant traction due to tariff threats from former President Donald Trump, which is further strengthening risk-off sentiment. Meanwhile, expectations of a 50 bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February continue to weigh on the Kiwi, with the central bank signaling a gradual move toward a neutral rate. Amid these developments, risk sentiment and broader market reactions will play a crucial role in shaping NZD/USD’s near-term trajectory. NZD/USD remains on the back foot ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision as traders are holding on to Powell’s speech for cues on policy. The US Dollar strengthens on shifting trade policies while Kiwi remains on the back foot as expectations of a 50 bps RBNZ rate cut remain in place. Risk-off sentiment and market reactions will remain key drivers for NZD/USD. • The pair is still weakening and trading near 0.5650 as the market is averse to risks ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. • The Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, while Powell’s speech will be something to watch out for future policy signals. • The Greenback is bolstered by the Fed’s cautious outlook and tariff threats by former President Trump on key imports. • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut 50 bps in February, and easing is expected throughout 2025. • Uncertainty in global markets is pushing investors towards safe haven assets, and risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar continue to face further pressure. • Traders will keep a close eye on both the Fed and RBNZ, as their respective stances are expected to set the tone for NZD/USD. • The Kiwi may remain under pressure with the RBNZ signaling a shift toward a neutral rate, and this will be influenced by domestic inflation trends and global risk factors. NZD/USD continues to move lower, trading near 0.5650 as investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain its policy rate at 4.25%-4.50%, but all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for hints at future policy tightening. The US Dollar remains firm on the back of a dovish Fed and renewed threats of tariffs from former President Donald Trump, which has stoked concerns about the global trade dynamic. As risk sentiment erodes, risk-sensitive currencies are being shunted toward safe havens, piling on further pain for the New Zealand Dollar. NZD/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Kiwi faces intense selling as there is rising belief that the RBNZ is likely to follow through with a 50 bps rate cut this February. Since it is expected to stay dovish and ease its policies throughout 2025, New Zealand remains exposed to more bears. The dovish tilt was furthered by RBNZ Chief Economist Conway’s statement reiterating the gradual shift towards a neutral rate. As the inflation expectations keep falling and domestic pricing pressures are eased, the RBNZ would be more likely to take an accommodative turn, which should weigh on NZD/USD in the long term. With these recent developments, market participants will continue to watch out for the Fed’s policy signals as well as the global risk sentiment to decide the next steps of the pair. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is holding on to a bearish momentum since it’s again trading close to the 0.5650 support point, marking third consecutive loss points. The chart is below main moving averages-50-day and 200-day EMA have acted as hurdles for the present, showing how the pair continued its downtrend. RSI is still approaching the oversold boundary, so at this stage, an immediate correction can’t be denied since selling pressure also seems strong for the time being. The next immediate support is around 0.5620, a break below which could open the door for further losses toward 0.5580. On the upside, resistance is seen near 0.5700, followed by 0.5750, where sellers are likely to emerge. A daily close below 0.5650 could reinforce bearish sentiment, while any recovery above 0.5700 may signal a temporary reversal. Traders should watch for

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