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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation, Weak Demand, and Correction Risks Ahead

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  • February 22, 2025
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Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $94,000 and $100,000, with weakening institutional demand reflected in $489.60 million of ETF outflows and decreasing network activity, while technical indicators like a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential upside if BTC can break above $100,000—yet muted RSI momentum and upcoming FTX repayments highlight prevailing market uncertainty, and CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may experience further corrections down to $86,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 in the face of large ETF redemptions and softening institutional buying, which presents a tenuous price setting for risk-averse traders. • A bullish MACD crossover presents possible upside momentum in case Bitcoin crosses $100,000, but soft RSI and low network activity continue to increase risk worries. • Deadbeat FTX repayments are creating market uncertainty, as smaller creditor payments trigger nervousness among investors while waiting for larger payment schedules beginning on May 30. • CryptoQuant’s report cautions that in the absence of better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation might fail, potentially dropping prices to support levels at $86,000. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 as institutional appetite falters, with ETF redemptions worth $489.60 million supporting weak market conditions. A bullish MACD crossover suggests possible uptrend momentum if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, though muted RSI readings and low network activity hint at continued market conservatism. CryptoQuant cautions that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to support levels around $86,000, with FTX repayment uncertainties providing additional investor jitters. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 on weak institutional buying and heavy ETF outflows. A bullish MACD crossover indicates upward momentum, but muted RSI and low network activity call for caution. CryptoQuant advises that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin can fall to support levels around $86,000. •  Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February. •  US Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate net withdrawals of $489.60 million through Thursday. •  CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to about $86,000. •  Institutional demand is declining, contributing to the present delicate market conditions. •  Deceased FTX payments have brought further uncertainty, with smaller creditors already being paid. •  A bullish MACD crossover indicates possible upward momentum in case Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier. •  Slowing network activity and multi-month low volatility indicate investor caution. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000, with dipping institutional demand and high ETF outflows. The sentiment of the current crypto market is further subdued by weak network activity, with the network activity index of Bitcoin being the lowest in a year, reflecting a general loss of interest in the markets. This deteriorating demand, along with persisting fears about liquidity, is keeping investors nervous, with some expecting additional price corrections if things do not start looking up. On the other hand, market uncertainty has been compounded by the process of repayment of FTX creditors that has created further uncertainty. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA These trends have resulted in a tentative market environment where aggregate demand seems to be declining. Furthermore, the ongoing exercise of settling creditors by the collapsed FTX exchange has contributed to existing uncertainty among stakeholders. Market players are monitoring these events keenly, as sustained issues with demand and liquidity may have long-term implications for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin technicals imply a guarded accumulation for a possible directional move. The bullish MACD crossover of the daily chart implies a likely surge in momentum in case Bitcoin is able to break through the $100,000 mark, and the RSI staying close to its neutral point of 50 indicates an even tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The consolidation in the $94,000 to $100,000 range indicates a time of balance, with low volatility and moderate volume supporting the idea that a major breakout or breakdown may be on the horizon. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break convincingly above the $100,000 level, the market is likely to find renewed bullish thrust, with upside price action in the direction of the January 30 high of around $106,457. Favorable technical signals like the MACD crossover indicate a probable sustained upside based on growing momentum fueled by optimistic investor sentiment or favorable market developments. If Bitcoin is unable to hold support at the present consolidation level and breaks below $94,000, it may be subject to further price corrections. Further weakening of demand and liquidity conditions, along with uncertainty in the market, might push Bitcoin’s price down to critical support levels around $86,000. This could be worsened by low network usage and continued institutional outflows, which are indicators of a weakening market.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum Price Prediction: SEC’s Interest in Staking May Drive Gigantic Inflows into ETH ETFs

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  • February 21, 2025
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The U.S. SEC’s increased interest in staking crypto might have a serious influence on the price direction of Ethereum and the inflows of ETFs. With the regulatory body accepting 21Shares’ application to include staking within Ethereum ETFs, institutional investors and retail users might find ETH more appealing with its potential for generating yields. Staking is one of Ethereum’s long-held value propositions, and if they get it done, it might usher in an enormous amount of capital inflow, potentially outranking Bitcoin ETFs. Despite trading at $2,740 currently, it is range-bound between $2,500 and $2,850, but a bullish break is likely once it crosses past major resistance areas. Market conditions indicate increasing bullish momentum, yet a powerful stimulus is required to propel Ethereum towards a long-lasting uptrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • If sanctioned, staking would fuel enormous inflows, making Ethereum ETFs more popular and even overtaking Bitcoin ETFs in popularity. • ETH needs to break above the $2,850 resistance level to validate a bullish trend; otherwise, it can stay range-bound or experience sell-offs. • Institutional investors have raised their ETH ETF holdings substantially, indicating faith in Ethereum’s long-term prospects and its worth as a staking asset. • The Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate increasing bullish momentum, but ETH requires a strong catalyst for a clear breakout. Ethereum’s price direction is at a crossroads with the SEC taking increased interest in crypto staking that has the potential to transform its ETFs and overall sentiment. Approval of staking in Ethereum ETFs has the ability to trigger enormous institutional inflows into ETH, making it a more desirable asset. At present, ETH is stuck in a range between $2,500 and $2,850, and the $2,850 mark is a very solid resistance level. A breach above this would solidify bullish market structure, while a failure to do so could keep the price muted. As institutional investors are buying into more ETH ETF holdings and technicals reflect increasing bullish sentiment, Ethereum’s next direction will depend on regulatory developments and overall market drivers. Ethereum’s price continues to be range-bound as the SEC’s consideration of staking may fuel huge ETF inflows. A break above $2,850 could validate a bullish trend, with institutional investment still increasing, reflecting strong long-term faith in ETH. • The SEC is working closely with the crypto sector to consider staking, which may permit it in Ethereum ETFs. • Ethereum ETF staking approval would see substantial institutional and retail investment flowing in, making ETH’s proposition even more valuable. • ETH needs to overcome this important resistance level to develop a bullish trend; otherwise, it can remain range-bound. • Institutional holders of ETH ETFs have increased their holdings from 4.8% to 14.5% during the last quarter, reflecting immense market confidence. • RSI and Stochastic Oscillator indicate increasing upward momentum but with a catalyst to break out. • The price of Ethereum continues in a downward channel, with bulls having to defend support levels to avoid additional downside risk. • Should ETH not hold support, a slide below $2,200 will negate the bullish scenario and drop the price down to $1,500. The U.S. SEC’s growing interest in crypto staking can potentially redefine Ethereum’s investment landscape, particularly in the context of ETFs. By recognizing 21Shares’ application to allow staking in its Ethereum ETF, the regulatory agency indicates a change that could institutionalize Ethereum’s staking model. Staking enables investors to receive passive income by validating the blockchain, and it is a significant value proposition for ETH. If approved, Ethereum ETFs with staking would be able to draw a large number of investors looking for both price appreciation and yield generation, further cementing ETH’s status as a leading crypto asset. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Institutional adoption of  Ethereum is also growing, with major players continuing to expand their ETF holdings. Increased participation from institutional investors underlines Ethereum’s promise beyond as a mere digital currency—it is a dominant force in decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain technology. With Ethereum’s growing network, staking is a central factor that strengthens security and decentralization. With the ever-present debates surrounding regulation and a growing stake by the industry, Ethereum’s function in the financial world is primed to transform, cementing it as a long-term threat in the general crypto currency landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum price action is still within a range, with significant resistance at $2,850 and support at $2,500. The downtrend channel pattern established since mid-December continues to shape price action, with bulls trying to break out of this pattern. If ETH can close above the top line of the channel, it would indicate a change to bullish momentum, which may draw in more buyers. Market indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator exhibit slow ascent, indicating increasing buying pressure. Nevertheless, inability to hold above key points may result in consolidation or even possible retesting of lower support levels. FORECAST The price direction of Ethereum is uncertain, and both bullish and bearish scenarios are unfolding based on market catalysts and regulatory updates. If the SEC greenlights staking in Ethereum ETFs, ETH may see a big bullish move as institutional investors boost their positions. A move above the $2,850 resistance level would validate bullish momentum, which could drive ETH to the $3,000 level and beyond. More ETF inflows and growing faith in Ethereum’s staking ability could also reinforce its long-term price stability and growth. On the negative side, unless regulatory risks fade away or staking approval gets delayed, Ethereum may not be able to see any upside. The $2,500 level continues to be significant, and any fall below this region may extend losses. Global economic factors, investor risk sentiment, and overall market sentiment will also contribute to ETH’s movement. If the pressure to sell goes up, Ethereum may experience a pullback towards the $2,200 price level, and in the worst-case scenario, it may decline to $1,500. Nevertheless, favorable institutional investment and the overall crypto market recovery can prevent a drastic correction.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Stays Strong Above 1.2650 on Soft US Jobless Claims and UK Economic Volatility

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  • February 21, 2025
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GBP/USD stays strong at above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar falters on weak jobless claims figures. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 219,000, topping forecasts, and mixed messages from Federal Reserve policymakers contributed to uncertainty in the market. Optimism in the wake of possible US-China trade developments supported the pair further. Nevertheless, fears over UK economic prospects remain, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issuing warnings regarding sluggish growth and a deteriorating labor market. A better-than-expected UK CPI release did little to quash Bailey’s description of the inflation surge as transient, leaving traders wary of impending policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • The increase in US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 led to a weakening US Dollar, supporting GBP/USD but also creating doubts regarding labor market stability. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issued a warning of slow growth and easing labor market, casting further doubts on the long-term Pound Sterling strength. • Uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate cuts by Fed officials sends mixed signals to traders, affecting market sentiment and GBPCAD price action. • Relief from potential gains in US-China trade negotiations alleviated market concerns, and it added further to support for GBP/USD in the short run. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, supported by a softer US Dollar on the back of increasing jobless claims and conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. The rising US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 indicated potential labor market weakness, weighed on the USD and helped the Pound Sterling. In the meantime, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s caution regarding the slow UK economic growth and weakening labor market kept investors wary of the strength of the GBP. On the other hand, optimism over possible US-China trade negotiations progress gave risk assets some bullish push. But the uncertainty lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve is considering inflation risks and possible rate reductions, making the future direction of GBP/USD reliant on future economic releases and policy actions. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, helped by a weaker US Dollar on rising jobless claims and conflicting Fed cues. UK economic worries still exist, as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of slow growth. In contrast, hopes regarding US-China trade negotiations provide some bullish push, though market volatility still exists. • The pair continues to remain above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar weakens. • First-Time Jobless Claims rose to 219,000, beating forecasts and hinting at potential weakness in the labor market. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned of weak UK growth and a declining labor market. • A more-than-forecasted UK CPI report temporarily pushed the Pound higher, but Bailey dismissed its longer-term relevance. • Fed officials are still skeptical of inflation and upcoming rate reductions, leaving traders on their guard. • Encouraging trade negotiation news between the US and China supported market sentiment somewhat. • Future direction of GBP/USD will be based on future economic indicators, central bank actions, and international trade dynamics. GBP/USD continues to be in the spotlight as the global economic landscape influences market mood. Recent economic data indicate the concern over US labor market stability, with an increase in jobless claims pointing towards possible economic difficulties. In the meantime, in the UK, economic growth and inflation remain among the topics of debate, with policymakers weighing external influences, including global trade patterns and monetary policy, that could affect stability over the longer term. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has sounded a note of caution on the UK’s muted growth and changing labor market dynamics, indicating the importance of prudent policy decisions over the next few months. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Globally, there has been some relief for investors from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks, which has alleviated concerns over higher tariffs and possible supply chain disruption. Also, Federal Reserve officials have given conflicting opinions on inflation trends and future interest rate actions, further confusing financial markets. With both the US and UK economies going through tough times, market players are paying close attention to economic events and central bank actions that may determine financial conditions in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD still trades above important support levels, with its bullish trend close to recent highs. The pair recently reached a two-month high of 1.2674, reflecting strong buying interest. The price stays over the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an upward trend. Yet, resistance in the vicinity of 1.2700 can be a test, while short-term support is seen around 1.2600. Momentum indicators like the RSI indicate that the pair is heading towards overbought levels, so it can result in short-term consolidation prior to the next big move. Traders will be looking for confirmation cues to see if the pair is capable of maintaining its upward move or experience a pullback. FORECAST GBP/USD might continue to climb if sentiment remains bullish in the markets and economic indicators support the Pound. An extended breakout over the major resistance of 1.2700 might create opportunities for additional upward momentum, and the next critical resistance levels might be found near 1.2750 and 1.2800. Any weakness in upcoming US economic data, particularly in employment or inflation figures, could pressure the US Dollar further, allowing GBP/USD to climb higher. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance or hints at potential rate cuts sooner than expected, the Pound may find additional support. Positive developments in global trade, particularly between the US and China, could also boost risk appetite and drive demand for GBP. To the negative, GBP/USD can be pressured if economic issues in the UK become more severe or if risk appetite declines. Failure to stay above 1.2600 support could result in weakening towards 1.2550 and 1.2500. Any indication of UK economic data worsening, particularly in growth and employment, would cause market sentiment to turn against the Pound. Also, if the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish, shoving back rate cut expectations, the US Dollar

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Appreciates on Market Sentiment: GBP/USD Tests Critical Resistance as Investors Look to Economic Releases

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) has appreciated against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment continues to improve. Investor sentiment has improved after President Trump’s moderated approach to tariffs and continued talks of a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Yet, doubts persist regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as the most recent FOMC minutes emphasize ongoing inflation threats from possible tariff effects. The economic outlook for the UK is also uncertain, with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey indicating weak growth and labor market deceleration. The British pound is capped at 1.2620, with future UK Retail Sales and S&P Global PMI figures set to dictate further price movements. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales report, which will give them an idea of consumer spending patterns and the general health of the UK economy. • The initial UK and US PMI readings for February will reflect economic activity patterns and may determine the short-term direction of the Pound Sterling. • FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates based on inflation threats, which could maintain the US Dollar strong against the Pound Sterling. • The 1.2620 level of resistance and 1.2250 support zone are very important in specifying the next possible breakout or correction in the currency pair. The Pound Sterling’s shift against the US Dollar is dependent on several significant determinants, such as future UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI reports, due to release and offering new economic activity and consumer confidence insights. As for its counterpart, the Federal Reserve’s recent conservative position regarding interest rates, reflected in the most recent FOMC minutes, emphasizes inflationary pressures fueled by possible US tariff measures. This could keep the US Dollar strong, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. On the technical front, the pair faces resistance at 1.2620, aligned with the 100-day EMA, while key support rests at 1.2250. Market sentiment remains a key driver, with geopolitical developments and risk appetite influencing short-term trends. The Pound Sterling’s action against the US Dollar continues to be guided by UK Retail Sales figures, PMI data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance. With 1.2620 acting as resistance and 1.2250 as support, geopolitical concerns and market sentiment will dictate the direction of the currency pair. • GBP/USD is trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment picks up pace, boosted by diminishing fears about Trump’s tariff policies and optimism in geopolitics. • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales figures, which will give an indication of consumer expenditure and possible economic recovery. • The UK and US February preliminary PMI figures will be instrumental in determining business activity and economic resilience. • The FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates as a result of inflation fears, which may favor the US Dollar. • UK CPI increased more than expected, but the BoE is still hesitant to cut rates further due to economic weakness. • GBP/USD is resisted at 1.2620 and major support at 1.2250, where it will make its next move. • Market sentiment is influenced by news regarding Trump’s trade policies and continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The movement of the Pound Sterling is now being dictated by wider economic and geopolitical events. Investors are following UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI closely, which will paint a clearer picture of economic activity and consumer confidence. A better-than-anticipated retail performance will indicate strength in the UK economy, while PMI figures will reveal business conditions in the UK and US. Also, recent inflation data have indicated a short-term spike, and as a result, the Bank of England has kept monetary policy tight. Governor Andrew Bailey has already cautioned that growth could be slow, and any additional policy moves will be based on new data. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the international front, market sentiment has been better because of a more cautious approach by President Trump on trade policies. Although early fears about tariffs on Chinese imports and other major sectors caused volatility, Trump’s recent statements on a potential trade deal with China have calmed fears. But uncertainty persists as there is no clear plan on tariff implementation. While meanwhile, talks on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have also fostered a risk-positive sentiment, though Ukraine dismissed any agreement in the absence of its direct participation. As conditions in the world economy and politics change, investors will be careful, keeping an eye on critical events that would affect market stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is fighting to sustain above the 1.2600 level, and resistance is situated at 1.2620, which is coinciding with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The duo is now oscillating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, calculated from the September-end high to the January-middle low, which represents a key area for possible breakout or pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is barely managing to stay above 60.00, and if it fails to hold above this level, it could signal weakening bullish momentum. On the negative side, major support is at 1.2250, and a fall below this level may initiate further selling pressure. To have a stronger uptrend, GBP/USD must break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2767, which would signal a continuation of bullish sentiment. FORECAST The potential for the upside in GBP/USD relies on better market sentiment and major economic data releases. If UK Retail Sales for January and February S&P Global PMI reports surpass predictions, this is likely to be a confidence booster for the UK economy, driving the Pound upward. Favorable change in Brexit developments or better-than-forecasted employment statistics are additional strengths for the currency. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve is hinting at a softer approach towards interest rates in light of slowing inflation, the US Dollar might depreciate, leaving GBP/USD more space to move upwards. Breaking above the resistance level of 1.2620 might signal more upward gains towards the 1.2767 area, suggesting positive momentum. On the negative, any indication of economic weakness within the UK, for example poor retail sales or a fall

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