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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Prediction: Major Resistance Levels and Market Trends In the Wake of Political Stability in Germany

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  • February 25, 2025
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EUR/USD is gaining momentum around 1.0470 in the Asian session on the back of renewed political stability in Germany following the election win of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance. Nevertheless, the pair is still bearish below the 100-period EMA, with major resistance at 1.0525-1.0530. A breakout above this level might trigger more gains towards 1.0630 and higher, while risks of a decline exist at 1.0400, with possible falls towards 1.0295 and 1.0210. Market sentiment is still cautious, with technical analysis indicating a mix of signals, making the 1.0500 level the key battleground for traders. KEY LOOKOUTS           • EUR/USD has key resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout potentially giving way to further gains towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The duo finds initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially taking it down to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish picture, while the RSI level of 55.50 indicates possible upside action. • The CDU/CSU election win in Germany boosts EUR sentiment, but investor attention is still on major technical levels and economic indicators for further direction. EUR/USD is still at a crucial point, trading around 1.0470, as the market weighs important technical and political considerations. The pair is under significant resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and a break higher could unlock the way to 1.0630 and 1.0777. Support on the downside is at 1.0400, with potential further losses towards 1.0295 and 1.0210 if selling gains momentum. The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish stance, while RSI at 55.50 indicates some upside potential. The CDU/CSU election win by Germany has also brought temporary stability to the Euro, but market sentiment is still wary, with the market closely observing economic data and global risk trends. EUR/USD remains close to 1.0470, with important resistance seen at 1.0525-1.0530 and support near 1.0400. The 100-period EMA remains bearish in its outlook, although the RSI indicates potential upside. Political stability in Germany favors the Euro but market sentiment is cautious. • EUR/USD is confronted by strong resistance near 1.0525-1.0530, with a breakout having the potential to move the pair towards 1.0630 and 1.0777. • The pair meets initial support at 1.0400, with further losses potentially pushing to 1.0295 and 1.0210. • The 100-period EMA maintains the bearish direction, limiting upside. • The 14-day RSI at 55.50 indicates probable upside momentum, subject to the ongoing bearish trend. • Germany’s CDU/CSU election success has brought temporary stability to the Euro, allowing for modest gains. • A breakdown below the lower band of 1.0295 could provoke further losses, with the upper band around 1.0530 serving as resistance. • Market participants are keeping a close eye on economic indicators and global risk factors for further guidance. EUR/USD currency pair is witnessing a change in market mood as political stability is back in Germany. The recent election win of the CDU/CSU coalition has allayed fears of extended political uncertainty, sending confidence in the Euro higher. Investors are now closely watching how this leadership transition will impact economic policies, trade relations, and fiscal strategies. With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, its political direction plays a crucial role in shaping the broader European financial landscape. The market remains attentive to upcoming policy decisions that could influence investor confidence and economic growth. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Outside of politics, trends in global economics and macroeconomic events still dictate EUR/USD direction. Inflation rates, central bank actions, and geopolitical tensions are still major determinants of market sentiment. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and economic releases will still be important variables in dictating the pair’s direction in the future. Foremost, ongoing debates on global trade, energy prices, and economic recovery after the pandemic provide another dimension of uncertainty. As investors ponder these issues, market players take a wait-and-see attitude, anticipating better clarity on both regional and world economic situations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a tentative area, as major indicators will determine its immediate direction. The pair is hovering below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), supporting a bearish attitude. Yet, Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 55.50 indicates moderate bullish pressure, and hopes for a move higher still linger. The Bollinger Bands signal possible volatility, the higher band serving as resistance at 1.0525-1.0530, and the lower band at 1.0295 acting as support. A clean break above resistance would initiate further advances, while below support would increase selling pressure. Traders are keeping close watch at these levels for confirmation on the direction of the next trend. FORECAST EUR/USD is able to cross above the crucial resistance area of 1.0525-1.0530, bullish pressure may intensify, driving the pair to even higher levels. A continued breakout above this range can draw new buying interest, likely propelling prices to 1.0630, a key level of resistance in December 2024. Still higher, a rally could continue to 1.0777, a level that was recently tested in August 2024. Improved market sentiment, better Eurozone economic statistics, or a more dovish bias from the U.S. Federal Reserve could still contribute to uptrend momentum in the pair. EUR/USD cannot stay above the 1.0400 psychological level support, and selling pressure may gain strength to cause more declines. Breaking below this psychological level may lay the ground for declines to the lower Bollinger Band at 1.0295, with an even deeper fall targeting 1.0210, the early February 2024 low. Bearishness can be triggered by more robust U.S. economic reports, a dovish Federal Reserve, or risk aversion across markets. In this situation, investors might rush to safe-haven assets, further stressing the Euro.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Continues as Crucial Support Levels Remain Unbroken

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  • February 25, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair continues to uphold its bullish trend, trading above the 1.2600 support level and still within an upward channel pattern. Technical analysis, such as the 14-day RSI at more than 50 and the price still above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, supports the short-term rising trend. Abrupt resistance is at 1.2690, the two-month high, with an additional target to the upside at 1.2811 and conceivably 1.2960 should the uptrend bias intensify. To the downside, support is found at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), with a break below these potentially causing a drop toward 1.2490, the lower end of the rising channel. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is confronted with short-term resistance at the two-month high of 1.2690; a break above might propel the pair to 1.2811 and beyond. • The nine-day EMA of 1.2597 is crucial short-term support; a fall below might undermine momentum, resulting in a possible fall to 1.2490. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum and making further gains more likely if the trend continues. • The duo trades in an uptrend channel, with the price action on the side of further gains unless a breakdown at the lower edge at 1.2490 happens. GBP/USD pair remains in its bullish momentum, staying above the 1.2600 support level while trending in an ascending channel pattern. The pair meets short-term resistance at 1.2690, a two-month high, with additional room for further upside to 1.2811 and 1.2960 if the bullish momentum continues. Key support levels to look out for are 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a break below these levels may result in a fall towards 1.2490, the lower end of the channel. The 14-day RSI level above 50 confirms further uptrend, strengthening strong short-term price action and suggesting scope for further rises. GBP/USD currency pair continues with its upward strength, staying above 1.2600 support in an upward channel. The resistance is at 1.2690, while the support is at 1.2597. Above-50 RSI of the 14-day period indicates strength to continue, with potential to move further upwards if the trend continues. • GBP/USD is still in an uptrend channel, keeping gains above 1.2600 support. • Breaking above this two-month high has the potential to send the pair up to 1.2811 and above. • The nine-day EMA is the initial support, then 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and 1.2490. • Shows bullish strength, meaning the pair can continue its rise. • Price is above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, ensuring short-term bullish momentum. • If the resistance levels are broken, the pair could head to the upper edge of the channel. • A fall below 1.2490 may douse the bullish sentiment and create a reversal. GBP/USD currency pair remains to show resilience in the market, underpinned by a stable trading scenario. Investor sentiment towards the British pound continues to be positive, fueled by general economic circumstances and market sentiments. The currency pair shows a steady trend, mirroring the continued economic engagement between the UK and the US. Traders are following closely major developments such as monetary policies, inflation figures, and economic indicators that could affect long-term price action. Market participants are still active, evaluating possible opportunities while monitoring overall macroeconomic trends. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA GBP/USD is still the area of interest for investors and traders who want stability and growth. As the overall economic environment changes, trade relations, central bank policy, and geopolitics become major contributors to market dynamics. The capacity of the pair to maintain momentum showcases the equilibrium between demand and supply, as well as the faith in each economy. Market trends are still being watched by traders, making adjustments in their strategies according to economic analysis and sector developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bullish framework, trading in an ascending channel pattern and above critical support levels. 14-day RSI is still above 50, which signals ongoing positive momentum, and the pair remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, confirming short-term strength. Short-term resistance is at 1.2690, with additional upside targets of 1.2811 and 1.2960 in case bullish momentum continues. On the negative side, major support levels are at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a possible pullback to 1.2490 if there is increased selling pressure. Overall, technical indicators point towards an extension of the uptrend unless major support levels are breached. FORECAST GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bullish outlook, with a possibility of extending gains if it breaks above major resistance levels. Successful breakout of 1.2690 would take the pair up towards 1.2811, the three-month high, followed by the ceiling of the upward channel at 1.2960. The pair continues to be sustained by robust short-term moving averages, supporting the chance of more up movement. On the expectation of favorable market mood, given stability in economics and a weak US dollar, GBP/USD is likely to maintain its strength with increased buying appetite. GBP/USD is at risk of going lower if it is unable to maintain above important support levels. Breaking below 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) may weaken the near-term trend, which can result in a possible test of 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and further to 1.2490, the lower limit of the rising channel. In the event of intensified selling pressure on account of unforeseen macroeconomic developments or a change in market sentiment, the pair may move lower, testing lower supports. A move below 1.2490 can confirm a stronger correction, flipping the near-term bias to bearish.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Outlook: XAG/USD Finds Support Below Mid-$32.00s on Mixed Technical Indications

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  • February 25, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a bullish bias below the mid-$32.00s, ending a two-day losing streak as it finds modest support. While recent buying interest has been evident, technical indicators are pointing towards mixed signals, and caution is advised for bulls. A break above $33.00 on a sustained basis could propel further gains towards $34.00 and higher, while solid support is seen around the $32.00-$31.75 area. Any corrective slide could be considered as a buying opportunity, although a firm fall below the 100-day SMA level of $31.25 may change momentum into the hands of bearish investors, which might pull silver to the $30.00 psychological level. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver requires consistent support above $33.00 in order to assure bullish momentum, which might challenge $34.00 and the multi-year high around $35.00. • The $32.00-$31.75 region provides solid support, and any fall is likely to find buyers, capping losses for XAG/USD. • A firm break below may turn sentiment bearish, leaving the way open for further losses towards the $30.00 psychological level. • Oscillators indicate caution, and it is best for traders to wait for confirmation before taking a position for a prolonged move in either direction. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading with a bullish bias but has some major technical barriers, especially around the $33.00 resistance level, which needs to be broken for extended bullish momentum. Support is strong around the $32.00-$31.75 area, where buying interest could cap downside risks. A fall below the 100-day SMA at $31.25, however, could shift the bias in favor of bearish traders, possibly taking silver down to the $30.00 psychological level. With conflicting technical indicators on the daily chart, the traders need to be cautious and await clear indication before positioning for the next big move. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading bullish but is met with resistance at $33.00, requiring a breakout for additional gains. Robust support at $32.00 constrains downside risk, while a breakdown below $31.25 has the potential to turn momentum bearish. Conflicting technical indications mean traders need to wait for confirmation before taking firm positions. • Silver picks up momentum below mid-$32.00s, ending a two-day losing streak with slight buying demand. • A critical resistance at $33.00, where a breakout is required to validate bullish interest towards $34.00 and $35.00. • Initial support at $32.00-$31.75, where buying demand may cap bearish movements. • 100-day SMA at $31.25 acts as a crucial pivot point, with a fall below indicating a bearish trend. • Possible negative to $30.00 if silver cannot hold support and breaks important levels. • Divergent technical indicators on the daily chart indicate caution for traders prior to entering a clear direction. • Short-term corrective drops can be considered as opportunities to buy unless major support levels are broken. Silver remains to be of interest as a valuable commodity, supported by its industrial and investment demand. Trusted for its flexibility, silver finds extensive application in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices, and hence is an integral component in many industries. Investors also identify silver as a safe haven asset, particularly at times of economic instability, due to its inherent value and acting as a hedge against inflation. Given its dual use—as an industrial metal and as a store of value—silver continues to be a desirable choice for traders and long-term investors. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA In addition to its market value, silver has served a historical function in currency and wealth storage. It has been utilized in coinage for centuries and is still a top pick among bullion investors. Increasing consumption in the solar panel manufacturing, in the field of renewable energy, further intensifies its long-term prospects. With the constant advancement of world industries, silver is likely to be increasingly in demand, reemphasizing its role as an essential metal in economic growth as well as technological progress. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) portrays a mixed setup, and cautious approach should be followed by the traders before pursuing a directional momentum. The failure to maintain gains over the $33.00 resistance level on multiple occasions indicates a likely consolidation period, and critical support around $32.00-$31.75 has prevented the downside movements from going further. A decisive cross of the $33.00 level might reignite bullish interest, taking prices to even higher resistance levels. On the contrary, a fall below the 100-day SMA at $31.25 can be an indication of a bearish turn, causing more deeper corrections. With oscillators reflecting indecisiveness, traders should wait for confirmation before positioning for the next major trend. FORECAST Silver has the potential to extend its gains if it manages to break above the crucial $33.00 resistance level. A sustained move beyond this mark could strengthen bullish momentum, leading to a test of the $34.00 level and possibly even the multi-year peak near $35.00. Strong demand from industrial and investment sectors, along with inflation concerns, could provide additional support for silver prices. If bullish momentum continues, silver may see further upside, supported by favorable market conditions and growing interest in precious metals as a hedge against economic uncertainty. If silver cannot hold ground in the vicinity of the $32.00-$31.75 zone, it might be subjected to rising selling pressure. A dip below the 100-day SMA of $31.25 can flip market sentiment bearish, and that would set the stage for a drop to the $30.00 psychological mark. Additional downside threats lurk if worldwide economic prospects soften, hurting industrial demand for silver. If bear momentum quickens, the metal might tumble into the $29.50-$29.00 region, where there is strong historical support.

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Bitcoin Crypto

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Consolidation, Weak Demand, and Correction Risks Ahead

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  • February 22, 2025
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Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase between $94,000 and $100,000, with weakening institutional demand reflected in $489.60 million of ETF outflows and decreasing network activity, while technical indicators like a bullish MACD crossover indicate potential upside if BTC can break above $100,000—yet muted RSI momentum and upcoming FTX repayments highlight prevailing market uncertainty, and CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may experience further corrections down to $86,000. KEY LOOKOUTS • Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 in the face of large ETF redemptions and softening institutional buying, which presents a tenuous price setting for risk-averse traders. • A bullish MACD crossover presents possible upside momentum in case Bitcoin crosses $100,000, but soft RSI and low network activity continue to increase risk worries. • Deadbeat FTX repayments are creating market uncertainty, as smaller creditor payments trigger nervousness among investors while waiting for larger payment schedules beginning on May 30. • CryptoQuant’s report cautions that in the absence of better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation might fail, potentially dropping prices to support levels at $86,000. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 as institutional appetite falters, with ETF redemptions worth $489.60 million supporting weak market conditions. A bullish MACD crossover suggests possible uptrend momentum if Bitcoin breaks above $100,000, though muted RSI readings and low network activity hint at continued market conservatism. CryptoQuant cautions that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to support levels around $86,000, with FTX repayment uncertainties providing additional investor jitters. Bitcoin is ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 on weak institutional buying and heavy ETF outflows. A bullish MACD crossover indicates upward momentum, but muted RSI and low network activity call for caution. CryptoQuant advises that without enhanced demand and liquidity, Bitcoin can fall to support levels around $86,000. •  Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000 since early February. •  US Bitcoin spot ETF flows indicate net withdrawals of $489.60 million through Thursday. •  CryptoQuant cautions that without better demand and liquidity, Bitcoin may fall to about $86,000. •  Institutional demand is declining, contributing to the present delicate market conditions. •  Deceased FTX payments have brought further uncertainty, with smaller creditors already being paid. •  A bullish MACD crossover indicates possible upward momentum in case Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 barrier. •  Slowing network activity and multi-month low volatility indicate investor caution. Bitcoin has been ranging between $94,000 and $100,000, with dipping institutional demand and high ETF outflows. The sentiment of the current crypto market is further subdued by weak network activity, with the network activity index of Bitcoin being the lowest in a year, reflecting a general loss of interest in the markets. This deteriorating demand, along with persisting fears about liquidity, is keeping investors nervous, with some expecting additional price corrections if things do not start looking up. On the other hand, market uncertainty has been compounded by the process of repayment of FTX creditors that has created further uncertainty. BITCOIN Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA These trends have resulted in a tentative market environment where aggregate demand seems to be declining. Furthermore, the ongoing exercise of settling creditors by the collapsed FTX exchange has contributed to existing uncertainty among stakeholders. Market players are monitoring these events keenly, as sustained issues with demand and liquidity may have long-term implications for the wider Bitcoin ecosystem. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Bitcoin technicals imply a guarded accumulation for a possible directional move. The bullish MACD crossover of the daily chart implies a likely surge in momentum in case Bitcoin is able to break through the $100,000 mark, and the RSI staying close to its neutral point of 50 indicates an even tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The consolidation in the $94,000 to $100,000 range indicates a time of balance, with low volatility and moderate volume supporting the idea that a major breakout or breakdown may be on the horizon. FORECAST If Bitcoin is able to break convincingly above the $100,000 level, the market is likely to find renewed bullish thrust, with upside price action in the direction of the January 30 high of around $106,457. Favorable technical signals like the MACD crossover indicate a probable sustained upside based on growing momentum fueled by optimistic investor sentiment or favorable market developments. If Bitcoin is unable to hold support at the present consolidation level and breaks below $94,000, it may be subject to further price corrections. Further weakening of demand and liquidity conditions, along with uncertainty in the market, might push Bitcoin’s price down to critical support levels around $86,000. This could be worsened by low network usage and continued institutional outflows, which are indicators of a weakening market.

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Crypto Ethereum

Ethereum Price Prediction: SEC’s Interest in Staking May Drive Gigantic Inflows into ETH ETFs

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  • February 21, 2025
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The U.S. SEC’s increased interest in staking crypto might have a serious influence on the price direction of Ethereum and the inflows of ETFs. With the regulatory body accepting 21Shares’ application to include staking within Ethereum ETFs, institutional investors and retail users might find ETH more appealing with its potential for generating yields. Staking is one of Ethereum’s long-held value propositions, and if they get it done, it might usher in an enormous amount of capital inflow, potentially outranking Bitcoin ETFs. Despite trading at $2,740 currently, it is range-bound between $2,500 and $2,850, but a bullish break is likely once it crosses past major resistance areas. Market conditions indicate increasing bullish momentum, yet a powerful stimulus is required to propel Ethereum towards a long-lasting uptrend. KEY LOOKOUTS • If sanctioned, staking would fuel enormous inflows, making Ethereum ETFs more popular and even overtaking Bitcoin ETFs in popularity. • ETH needs to break above the $2,850 resistance level to validate a bullish trend; otherwise, it can stay range-bound or experience sell-offs. • Institutional investors have raised their ETH ETF holdings substantially, indicating faith in Ethereum’s long-term prospects and its worth as a staking asset. • The Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicate increasing bullish momentum, but ETH requires a strong catalyst for a clear breakout. Ethereum’s price direction is at a crossroads with the SEC taking increased interest in crypto staking that has the potential to transform its ETFs and overall sentiment. Approval of staking in Ethereum ETFs has the ability to trigger enormous institutional inflows into ETH, making it a more desirable asset. At present, ETH is stuck in a range between $2,500 and $2,850, and the $2,850 mark is a very solid resistance level. A breach above this would solidify bullish market structure, while a failure to do so could keep the price muted. As institutional investors are buying into more ETH ETF holdings and technicals reflect increasing bullish sentiment, Ethereum’s next direction will depend on regulatory developments and overall market drivers. Ethereum’s price continues to be range-bound as the SEC’s consideration of staking may fuel huge ETF inflows. A break above $2,850 could validate a bullish trend, with institutional investment still increasing, reflecting strong long-term faith in ETH. • The SEC is working closely with the crypto sector to consider staking, which may permit it in Ethereum ETFs. • Ethereum ETF staking approval would see substantial institutional and retail investment flowing in, making ETH’s proposition even more valuable. • ETH needs to overcome this important resistance level to develop a bullish trend; otherwise, it can remain range-bound. • Institutional holders of ETH ETFs have increased their holdings from 4.8% to 14.5% during the last quarter, reflecting immense market confidence. • RSI and Stochastic Oscillator indicate increasing upward momentum but with a catalyst to break out. • The price of Ethereum continues in a downward channel, with bulls having to defend support levels to avoid additional downside risk. • Should ETH not hold support, a slide below $2,200 will negate the bullish scenario and drop the price down to $1,500. The U.S. SEC’s growing interest in crypto staking can potentially redefine Ethereum’s investment landscape, particularly in the context of ETFs. By recognizing 21Shares’ application to allow staking in its Ethereum ETF, the regulatory agency indicates a change that could institutionalize Ethereum’s staking model. Staking enables investors to receive passive income by validating the blockchain, and it is a significant value proposition for ETH. If approved, Ethereum ETFs with staking would be able to draw a large number of investors looking for both price appreciation and yield generation, further cementing ETH’s status as a leading crypto asset. ETHEREUM Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Institutional adoption of  Ethereum is also growing, with major players continuing to expand their ETF holdings. Increased participation from institutional investors underlines Ethereum’s promise beyond as a mere digital currency—it is a dominant force in decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain technology. With Ethereum’s growing network, staking is a central factor that strengthens security and decentralization. With the ever-present debates surrounding regulation and a growing stake by the industry, Ethereum’s function in the financial world is primed to transform, cementing it as a long-term threat in the general crypto currency landscape. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Ethereum price action is still within a range, with significant resistance at $2,850 and support at $2,500. The downtrend channel pattern established since mid-December continues to shape price action, with bulls trying to break out of this pattern. If ETH can close above the top line of the channel, it would indicate a change to bullish momentum, which may draw in more buyers. Market indicators like Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator exhibit slow ascent, indicating increasing buying pressure. Nevertheless, inability to hold above key points may result in consolidation or even possible retesting of lower support levels. FORECAST The price direction of Ethereum is uncertain, and both bullish and bearish scenarios are unfolding based on market catalysts and regulatory updates. If the SEC greenlights staking in Ethereum ETFs, ETH may see a big bullish move as institutional investors boost their positions. A move above the $2,850 resistance level would validate bullish momentum, which could drive ETH to the $3,000 level and beyond. More ETF inflows and growing faith in Ethereum’s staking ability could also reinforce its long-term price stability and growth. On the negative side, unless regulatory risks fade away or staking approval gets delayed, Ethereum may not be able to see any upside. The $2,500 level continues to be significant, and any fall below this region may extend losses. Global economic factors, investor risk sentiment, and overall market sentiment will also contribute to ETH’s movement. If the pressure to sell goes up, Ethereum may experience a pullback towards the $2,200 price level, and in the worst-case scenario, it may decline to $1,500. Nevertheless, favorable institutional investment and the overall crypto market recovery can prevent a drastic correction.

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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Pulls Back from All-Time Highs: Influence of USD Strength, Trade War Fears, and Fed Policy

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  • February 21, 2025
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Gold prices (XAU/USD) have pulled back from their all-time highs as a modest rebound in USD demand, driven by the Federal Reserve’s conservative approach to rate cuts and profit-taking among traders, took hold. Even so, downside action is contained as fears of a global trade war, ignited by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans for tariffs, continue to underpin safe-haven demand for gold. Also, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further support bullion’s allure. Although the technical configuration implies a short-term consolidation, the overall trend is bullish, with traders keeping close tabs on important support levels and future economic releases for additional market guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • U.S. Dollar strength and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates could be controlling short-term gold price action. • The announced tariffs by Trump and the resulting risk of a global trade war could fuel inflationary concerns and drive the safe-haven demand for gold. • Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, particularly Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil facilities, could further enhance the appeal of gold as an insurance against uncertainty. • Support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 could be good buying levels, while a breakout above $2,955 would indicate additional upside strength. Gold prices still oscillate on the back of a multi-pronged confluence of forces, including the strength of USD, fears over trade war, and tensions over geopolitics. Although a partial recovery in the U.S. The cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and Dollar toward reducing rates has set off some profit-taking, yet the downside is contained owing to continued fears over inflation and world trade volatility. Trump’s policies on tariffs and new geopolitical concerns, like the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to bolster gold’s safe-haven appeal. Technically, the major support in the range of $2,900-$2,880 is likely to lure buyers, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to propel further upside momentum, maintaining the overall bullish trend intact. Gold prices pull back slightly from all-time highs on USD recovery and profit-taking, but trade war anxiety and geopolitical tensions remain supportive of bullish momentum. Major technical levels in the range of $2,900-$2,880 are likely to serve as buying zones, and a breakout above $2,955 is likely to trigger further gains. • XAU/USD pulls back from all-time highs as profit-taking and a soft rebound in USD demand. • The Federal Reserve’s conservative attitude towards rate reductions and USD strength cap further advances in gold prices. • Trump’s tariff announcements drive inflation worries and boost gold’s safe-haven demand. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and rising global uncertainties continue to bolster bullion as a hedge. • Inflation expectations keep gold in favor in spite of price volatility in the short term. • Primary support levels between $2,900-$2,880 would be where purchasing interest could find buyers, or a break through $2,955 could induce further increases. • U.S. PMI figures, sales of homes, and consumer sentiment index can contribute to gold’s short-term course. Gold remains a safe-haven favorite against increasing worries on global economic tensions and geopolitical fears. The recently announced trade plans by previous U.S. President Donald Trump, such as further tariffs on Chinese imports and higher duties on steel and aluminum, have triggered concerns of a possible global trade war. These actions can fuel inflationary pressures, which will make gold an attractive hedge against inflation. Moreover, economic worries due to a weaker consumer sentiment, evidenced by Walmart’s lower-than-expected sales projection, further increase the demand for gold as investors want stability.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Geopolitical risks remain also a main driver of gold’s safe-haven demand. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, contributes to market uncertainty and further boosts the appeal of gold as a risk-free asset. At the same time, conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials about inflation and possible rate cuts lead to uncertainty in financial markets, causing investors to diversify into gold. As global economic and political uncertainties continue, gold continues to be a reliable store of value during volatile times. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold is still in a robust uptrend even as it pulls back temporarily from record highs. The recent spillover over the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels indicates further bullish pressure, and $2,955 will be the next critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, protection is visible at $2,900, followed by $2,880, which may act as buying areas for buyers interested in entering longs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still near the overbought zone, suggesting short-term consolidation prior to the next leg up. A convincing breakout above $2,955 may pave the way for higher gains, but a breakdown below $2,880 may confirm a more pronounced correction. FORECAST Gold’s medium- and long-term uptrend remains firm, although short-term corrections are inevitable given different economic and geopolitical considerations. On the bullish side, if gold continues its strength above the $2,928-$2,930 resistance levels, a breakout above $2,955 may propel prices upwards. Robust safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, may propel a rally to the $3,000 level. Moreover, any dovish Federal Reserve policy or soft U.S. economic data may also support gold’s rise, drawing new buyers into the market. On the bearish side, profit-taking and a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar may cause a short-term pullback. Key support levels of $2,900 and $2,880 will be important in ascertaining the extent of any correction. A breakdown below these levels could see a further fall to $2,860 or even $2,834. Yet, with the underlying macroeconomic uncertainties, any deep fall is expected to be supported by buying interest, capping the downside risk and preserving gold’s overall bullish outlook.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bearish Reversal Imminent as Upward Wedge Pattern Indicates Weakening Momentum

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  • February 21, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is low-key around the 1.0500 region, ranging in a rising wedge pattern, which points towards an impending bearish reversal. Although the 14-day RSI is close to 60, reflecting sustained bullish momentum, a reading above 70 may set off an overbought correction. The pair is currently positioned above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, which supports short-term strength. But a fall below the key support levels of 1.0453 (nine-day EMA) and 1.0436 (14-day EMA) would seal a bearish move, which could take the pair to 1.0177, its lowest since November 2022. On the higher side, resistance is at 1.0540, with a breakaway likely to take the pair to the two-month high of 1.0630. KEY LOOKOUTS • EUR/USD trades in a rising wedge formation, which could portend a possible bearish reversal if the downward pressure gathers strength and important support levels are breached. • The 14-day RSI fluctuates close to 60; an increase above 70 can be an indication of overbought, and it can lead to a pullback correction in the pair. • The nine-day EMA of the pair at 1.0453 and 14-day EMA at 1.0436 are the crucial support levels—a break below could seal further downside threats. • The higher limit of the rising wedge at 1.0540 is still a significant resistance level—a break above might push the pair towards 1.0630 highs. The EUR/USD pair continues to be at a pivotal point, ranging about 1.0500 in a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a bearish reversal if bearish momentum picks up. The 14-day RSI close to 60 indicates ongoing bullish support, but a move above 70 would signal overbought levels, raising the probability of a corrective pullback. The key support levels are at 1.0453 (nine-day EMA) and 1.0436 (14-day EMA), and a clean break below this level may further speed losses to 1.0177, its lowest since November 2022. On the other hand, a breakout above 1.0540, the top of the rising wedge, may solidify the bullish bias, moving the pair to the 1.0630 resistance level, which was last visited in early December. EUR/USD is quoted at 1.0500, trending within a rising wedge formation, suggesting a bearish reversal if a break of significant support at 1.0453 occurs. A reading near 60 in the 14-day RSI indicates bullish strength, but above 70 it might trigger a pullback. Breaking above 1.0540 can advance the pair towards 1.0630, solidifying a bullish trend. • EUR/USD is in a rising wedge, suggesting a bearish reversal if downside pressure picks up. • The nine-day EMA at 1.0453 and 14-day EMA at 1.0436 serve as crucial support; a break below could accelerate losses. • The upper boundary of the wedge at 1.0540 acts as a key resistance—breaking above it could trigger further bullish momentum. • The 14-day RSI suggests continued bullish strength, but a move above 70 may indicate overbought conditions, leading to a correction. • A decline below 1.0436 could turn momentum on the downside and drive the pair to 1.0177, its low since November 2022. • Should EUR/USD cross above 1.0540, it will test the two-month high at 1.0630, supporting a bull scenario. • The pair trades above its EMAs, supporting short-term bullishness, though falling volume within the wedge is an indicator of weakening buying force. The EUR/USD is in the limelight as market players closely monitor its trajectory in the wake of global economic developments. Investor moods are determined by several factors, such as geopolitical events, central bank actions, and macroeconomic announcements. The performance of the European economy, particularly regarding inflation and growth indicators, has a strong bearing on the outlook for the euro. At the same time, the U.S. dollar continues to be a dominant force, fueled by economic data, interest rate expectations, and general market sentiment. The interaction of these underlying factors decides the strength and stability of the currency pair. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Market sentiment is also influenced by investor sentiment, risk appetite, and external factors such as trade relations and monetary policy announcements. Any changes in world financial conditions have a profound effect on exchange rate behavior. Traders and investors track these variables to estimate possible movements and make sound judgments. Consumer spending, employment patterns, and economic stability in both regions also play a role in long-term trends in the EUR/USD currency pair. Knowledge of these factors aids in evaluating market conditions outside short-term volatility, giving a better view of currency market movement. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The EUR/USD currency pair is now trading in the form of a rising wedge pattern, a pattern that usually indicates a probable trend reversal. The pair still holds above its nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), representing short-term bullishness. But a breakdown below the key support levels can lead to a bearish turn. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at about 60, indicating ongoing bullish support, but should it rise above 70, this would indicate overbought levels, and a correction would ensue. On the upside, 1.0540 is a crucial resistance level, and a break out above it would drive the pair to the 1.0630 level, strengthening the bullish trend. Alternatively, a firm fall beneath the 1.0453–1.0436 support region would result in additional downward pressure, validating a change in momentum. FORECAST The EUR/USD currency pair is at a decisive moment with both the bullish and bearish picture on the cards. If the bullish trend prevails, the pair may break above the 1.0540 resistance level, indicating further robustness. A successful break may take it towards the 1.0630 level, a two-month high set in early December. If buying continues to increase, the next target on the upside would be around 1.0700, fueled by optimistic market sentiment and healthy economic data out of the Eurozone. On the flip side, if EUR/USD does not hold onto its present levels and breaches vital support levels at 1.0453 (nine-day EMA) and 1.0436 (14-day EMA), then it would mark a bearish reversal. A decisive fall below this area can propel losses further to

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Currencies

USD/CHF Price Outlook: Fails to Hold Ground Above 0.9000 Due to Dollar Weakness and SNB Policy Rumors

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  • February 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fails to hold ground above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar grapples with weakness in holding its recovery. Although the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to keeping interest rates unchanged, the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, fueled by weak inflation figures, increases the likelihood of negative interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near the 107.00 level, capping the upside for USD/CHF. The technical indicators indicate declining bullish momentum, with the 14-week RSI dropping from the high bullish zone. A clean break above 0.9244 will open the way for a further rise, while a fall below 0.9000 might initiate a deeper slide towards significant support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive fall below this level may cause further weakness, testing the crucial support levels at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates between 4.25%-4.50% favors the US Dollar but caps its upside potential. • Weak CPI data feeds speculation of possible negative interest rates, weakening the Swiss Franc and influencing USD/CHF’s direction. • A move above the October 2023 high may leave the way open towards the significant resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The USD/CHF currency pair is at a crossroads with the inability of the currency to hold on to levels above the psychological mark of 0.9000. The steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve defends the US Dollar, but a decline in the momentum in the Dollar Index (DXY) keeps gains on a leash. While this, coupled with the dovish tone from the Swiss National Bank, fuel rumors of negative interest rates that might further soften the Swiss Franc, the pair is technically due a strong breakout above 0.9244 to continue its rally towards 0.9300 and beyond. A fall below 0.9000 may see it slide further to significant support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. USD/CHF has difficulty staying above 0.9000 as the US Dollar is met with resistance and the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank causes the Franc to weaken. Further gains may be triggered by a breakout above 0.9244, and a fall below 0.9000 can cause a deeper correction. • The pair cannot hold gains above this psychological level as the US Dollar runs out of steam. • Keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by the Federal Reserve favors the Dollar but caps upside. • Soft inflation numbers add to speculation that the SNB could start negative interest rates, which would weaken the Swiss Franc. • The DXY is unable to hold above 107.00 levels, which affect the short-term price action of the USD/CHF pair. • A breakout above this level may signal more advancements to 0.9300 and 0.9342 levels. • A fall below 0.9000 may initiate further weakness, challenging support at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The 14-week RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that bearish momentum in USD/CHF is waning. The USD/CHF currency pair is struggling to hold above the important psychological level of 0.9000, as the US Dollar cannot hold its advance. Though the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its policy of maintaining interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still unstable near 107.00, capping the rally for USD/CHF. The market sentiment has also been affected by fear of future trade policies under former US President Donald Trump, and thus there is uncertainty in currency movements. At the same time, on the Swiss side, also fueling rumor has been soft inflation data that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might drive interest rates into negative numbers in order to avoid prolonged deflation, which could weaken the Swiss Franc further in the short term. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/CHF currency pair cannot maintain above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar is confronted with resistance in the face of a volatile DXY and stable Federal Reserve policy. In contrast, poor Swiss inflation figures have increased speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may drive interest rates into negative territory, further weakening the Swiss Franc. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in the process of consolidating, with major resistance at 0.9244 serving as a critical breakout level for additional gains up to 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.8947 is rising, reflecting long-term bullish inclination. Yet, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the bullish area of 60.00-80.00 into the neutral area of 40.00-60.00, reflecting the loss of upside momentum. If the pair is unable to hold at 0.9000, it may force a downside motion towards major support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. A strong break above 0.9244 or below 0.9000 will set the next major trend for USD/CHF. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair has the potential to move up if it can break above the major resistance level of 0.9244. A clean breakout above this level may initiate a rally towards the subsequent resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still remains in an upward slope, which is an indication of a long-term bull trend. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a stable interest rate policy while US economic fundamentals continue to remain robust, the US Dollar can again strengthen, driving USD/CHF upward. Any indication of additional monetary tightening or hawkish remarks from the Fed can serve as a trigger for a sustained bullish trend. On the bearish side, a breakdown below the psychological support of 0.9000 can indicate a more severe correction in the pair. A break below this point can leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further losses, with important support points at 0.8958 and 0.8900. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped out of its bullish zone, signaling declining momentum, which will put further pressure on the pair downwards. Further, if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not undertake aggressive rate reductions and the Swiss Franc rises due to risk-off sentiment across the globe, USD/CHF can experience selling pressure. Any surprise US monetary policy developments or

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD stabilizes at 1.0400 ahead of US NFP and Fed Interest Rate Expectation

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  • February 7, 2025
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EUR/USD continues within the trading ranges at 1.0400, awaiting release of US NFP, while this is perceived to determine a mood for subsequent Fed interest rates decisions. During the cautious day of the United States Dollar trade, June cut of the federal rate remains pending. The Eurozone is feeling the pinch of economic uncertainty due to concerns over potential US tariffs on European goods. The European Central Bank stays dovish, maintaining an accommodative tone. The technical outlook remains bearish with strong support at 1.0177 and resistance at 1.0500 as the market slices through economic data and global trade risks. KEY LOOKOUTS • The NFP report is due out soon and will be driving Fed rate expectations, with good job numbers delaying rate cuts and weak data lifting dovish bets. • The market is still expecting a June rate cut, but any change in the Fed’s tone depending on the data, especially inflation and labor market, could see the US Dollar swing. • The Euro is under pressure due to economic growth concerns, dovish ECB outlook, and potential trade tensions with the US, which could affect the currency’s stability. • EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0500, while support lies at 1.0177, with the 50-day EMA and RSI indicating a sideways to bearish trend in the near term. EUR/USD is being capped within tight ranges around 1.0400 as investors prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will influence the monetary policy outlook by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Strong labor market data may fortify the views that the Fed would like to sustain higher interest rates for more extended periods of time, and poor data will increase the scope of speculations for a rate cut in June. However, the Euro came under pressure from heightened economic uncertainties in the Eurozone, which include the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) and threats of potential US trade tariffs. Meanwhile, technical indicators project a cautious outlook. The main resistance remains at 1.0500, while support is at 1.0177, keeping dealers on their toes. EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.0400. The economy may take shape with regards to Fed rate outlook over US NFP and the more dovish stance by ECB coupled with potential US trade tariffs, weighing on Euro. Keep an eye on resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177. • A healthy jobs report should delay Fed rate cuts, and softer data will increase the bets for dovish rates. • Markets are expecting a June rate cut, but Fed policy change can alter the strength of the USD. • ECB dovish attitude coupled with sluggish growth affects the outlook for the Euro. • Tensions in trade can potentially damage the economy of Eurozone leading to volatile market conditions. • The chart at 1.0500 acts as major resistance for EUR/USD while major support is at 1.0177, and the trend is bearish. • DXY-USD Index still holds much significance and changes in that affect the moves in EUR/USD. • Average Hourly Earnings data will help understand inflationary trends, impacting Fed policy expectations. EUR/USD remains locked in a trading range around 1.0400 as market participants wait for the highly influential US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which may significantly alter the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. A strong labor market reading could solidify expectations that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer and support the US Dollar. Weaker employment data will fuel speculation of an earlier rate cut, which puts pressure on the Greenback and could lift EUR/USD. The European Central Bank is dovish; its policymakers are signaling that there is room for further rate cuts as economic uncertainty looms over the Eurozone. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA EUR/USD risks from possible trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. US President Donald Trump hinted that he would levy tariffs on goods imported from Europe, a development that will continue to dent the region’s economy and weaken the Euro. Technically, there is still caution as it hovers above resistance at 1.0500 and below support at 1.0177. It stays below the 50-day EMA while its RSI prints a neutral-to-bearish trend. Traders will watch the NFP data, wage growth figures, and further US-Eurozone trade relations developments for directional guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is under pressure, trading at 1.0400, with key resistance at 1.0500 and strong support at 1.0177. The pair is unable to break above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0436, indicating a bearish bias. At 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) between 40.00 and 60.00 the pair is neutral to slightly bearish momentum. In case the pair fails to break up at 1.0400, it’s likely to hit further down at 1.0177. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0500 would provide the trigger for a short-term bullish reversal. Traders will be tracking the decisive break above or below these levels to confirm the direction of the next trend. FORECAST However, a disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report ahead could send the EUR/USD even higher as the market would be further reoriented into the Federal Reserve cut on June. A weaker labor market puts pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the Euro to strengthen. If the pair can clear the resistance level of 1.0500, it would then open doors for further gains to 1.0600 and then 1.0750. In addition, any hawkish move by the ECB or economic rebound in the Eurozone can strengthen investors’ confidence in the Euro. A softer US stance on threatened tariffs imposed on European merchandise can also be seen to boost the positive EUR/USD sentiment. The pair remains sensitive to downside risks, with this week’s US labor market set to be a potent risk for EUR/USD if the data proves stronger than expected. A quality NFP report should lower the probability that the Fed will cut rates, favoring the US Dollar and driving EUR/USD even lower. Technically, if this pair does not stay atop of 1.0400, key support is located at 1.0177, and then comes a psychological level of 1.0100. Additionally, increasing economic uncertainty within the

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Nears 1.2450 as Traders Await Fed Decision and UK Economic Outlook

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  • January 29, 2025
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GBP/USD continues to hover around 1.2450 ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where the market is all but sure that rates will be maintained in the 4.25%-4.50% band. The Pound Sterling continues to suffer under rising stagflationary pressures in the UK, where labor demand remains weak and inflation refuses to budge. Adding to the uncertainty, renewed tariff threats by US President Donald Trump on key imports including computer chips and metals have seen an uptrend of risk aversion. At the same time, expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points by Bank of England in February increase pressure on the British Pound. Investors are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on future monetary policy, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer remains optimistic about economic recovery and stronger US-UK trade ties. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets anticipate the Fed will maintain rates at 4.25%-4.50%. Traders will closely analyze Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for any signals on future monetary policy shifts. • Deteriorating demand for labor and runaway inflation create fears of stagflation in the UK, further putting on pressure to the Pound Sterling, and intensifying expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in 2025. • President Trump’s plans to impose duties on imported components like computer chips and metals could further escalate tensions between them, increase averse sentiments towards risks, and strengthen the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. • Markets are factoring in a 25 basis point rate cut in February, which will bring borrowing rates to 4.5%, further hammering down GBP/USD in the face of ongoing economic uncertainty. GBP/USD is on high alert as market participants await the Federal Reserve policy decision, in which the Fed is likely to maintain rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Traders will watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements for clues on the next course of action for monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling underperformed with stagflation worries rising in the UK on labor demand weakness and stuck inflation leading speculators to begin expecting the Bank of England will cut the February interest rate. Also, President Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs for vital imports including computer chips and metals have amplified the risk aversion factor thereby sending the US Dollar surging ahead. Traders will pay close attention to developments in the US and the UK to get an idea of which way GBP/USD will take its next leg. GBP/USD holds around 1.2450 ahead of Fed’s policy decision that is widely seen to leave the interest rates as is. However, the concerns over the UK’s stagflation and President Trump’s new tariff threats pressure the Pound Sterling. Investors would keenly follow Fed Chair Powell’s speech for cues on the further monetary policy measures. • Federal Reserve would be holding onto the interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50% levels. Traders will be monitoring Jerome Powell closely for further monetary policy directions. • Stagflationary fears creep in with soft labor demand, coupled with unrelenting inflation. The pressure mounts on the British Pound, along with increased Bank of England rate-cut expectations. • Implications of US President Donald Trump, proposed tariffs on computer chips, pharmaceuticals, and metals that might push the trade tensions higher, a strong US Dollar, and increased risk aversion. • A 25 basis point cut in February is already priced into markets, which could reduce the borrowing rates to 4.5% and put more pressure on the GBP/USD. • Despite UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s optimism regarding economic recovery and trade ties with the US, the British Pound remains under pressure. • The cautious Fed stance, coupled with risk aversion resulting from uncertainty in trade policy, continues to support the US Dollar and limits gains in GBP/USD. • Investors are keeping an eye on the economic data releases, decisions of the central banks, and trade developments, as these factors will play a crucial role in determining the future movement of GBP/USD. GBP/USD is trading steady near 1.2450 as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with markets almost certain that interest rates will remain at 4.25%-4.50%. Investors are closely monitoring Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for any signals on future monetary policy direction, which could influence the US Dollar’s strength. Meanwhile, the British Pound faces pressure due to rising concerns over stagflation in the UK, driven by weakening labor demand and persistent inflation. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in February weigh further on GBP/USD, as the economic outlook remains uncertain despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s optimism about growth and trade relations with the US. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats on key imports, including computer chips and metals, have increased risk aversion, strengthening the US Dollar against the Pound. Any more trade tensions can keep piling pressure on global markets as investors seek the safe haven of the US Dollar. As economic uncertainty goes on, some key developments both out of the US and the UK will be followed as traders look towards the next leg in GBP/USD. Policy from central banks and trade dynamics will remain strong drivers for determining market direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is still trading near 1.2450, but any selling pressure must be expected around key levels of resistance set at 1.2500 and 1.2550. On the flip side, immediate support is at 1.2400, and another stronger support area is seen closer to 1.2350. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is seen moving in neutral region, which also does not support the idea that it is in overbought or oversold territory. 50-day MA still remains flat, without any strong momentum, but the 200-day MA of 1.2600 does act as a longer-term resistance point. If the pair falls below 1.2400, then further falls could be possible. A breakout above 1.2500 might provide scope for further upsides. The level of price action will be watched closely because the upcoming policy decisions of Fed and BoE could create a surge in volatility. FORECAST

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