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Commodities Gold

Gold Records All-Time High as Trump’s Tariffs Rattle World Markets

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  • February 19, 2025
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Gold (XAU/USD) shot up to a new all-time high above $2,945 on Wednesday, extending its upward trend for the third straight day. The bull run was propelled by increased geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump re-emphasized his vow to implement 25% tariffs on auto, semiconductor, and drug imports. Naysays regarding US-Russia tensions, combined with market volatility pre-Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes report, contributed to the allure of gold as an insurance asset. Technicals present a possible challenge in the neighborhood of $2,951 and $2,966, though any dovish undertones the Fed may carry could further move gold towards psychological $3,000. There is still possible reversal, nonetheless, if sentiment responds to the economic data or Fed policy tilt. KEY LOOKOUTS • The threat of 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and drugs inspires market uncertainty and pushes gold to all-time highs. • Federal Reserve January meeting minutes may guide gold’s performance, with speculators looking for clues on next interest rate actions. • Gold is resisted at $2,951 and $2,966, with potential to push further to $3,000 in case of continuous bullish momentum. • Safe-haven demand is boosted by US-Russia tensions and Trump’s hardline on Ukraine, supporting gold prices in the face of worldwide uncertainty. Gold’s record-setting sprint to a new all-time high of over $2,945 shows the market’s responsiveness to economic and geopolitical events. With Trump’s return to tit-for-tat tariffs shaking markets and uncertainty hanging over US-Russia relations, investors are hedging against volatility with gold. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s next FOMC Minutes release provides further anticipation, as any sign of policy changes could influence market mood. Although gold’s upward trend is still intact, resistance levels around $2,951 and $2,966 may hinder further advances unless a dovish Fed or rising tensions provide further impetus for the rally. Gold rockets above $2,945 on Trump tariff plans and geopolitics. Market direction is now expected from the Fed’s FOMC Minutes. • XAU/USD rockets above $2,945, its third day of advance amidst global uncertainty. • The U.S. President reaffirms 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, heightening market fears. • Trump’s aggressive stance on Ukraine and US-Russia relations further contributes to investor uncertainty, supporting gold’s safe-haven status. • Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting may affect gold’s direction based on signals about interest rate policy. • Gold has strong resistance at $2,951 and $2,966 levels, with possibilities of a run to $3,000. • The 10-year benchmark yield is just shy of 4.56%, affecting the direction of gold as market players determine risk mood. • Koza Altin’s plan to make 40+ tons of gold in five years reflects the industry’s solid demand and prospects for growth. Gold’s rise to an all-time new high is a sign of increasing investor worries on geopolitical tensions and economic policies. The recent gold price boost follows U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirming his decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports. The decision has augmented concerns over trade disruption, and investors are resorting to the safety of gold as a safe-haven instrument. Furthermore, Trump’s tough statements on Ukraine have contributed to the uncertainty in the market, particularly after the initial negotiations between U.S. and Russian leaders failed to defuse tensions. In this context, investors and traders continue to pour into gold as a safe-haven asset against economic turmoil.  XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Beyond geopolitics, market participants are also closely watching the Federal Reserve, as its upcoming FOMC Minutes release could shape future economic policies. While several Fed officials have signaled that interest rates remain at reasonable levels, inflationary concerns persist. Gold’s ongoing strength reflects the broader uncertainty in financial markets, where investors remain cautious about global economic trends. Furthermore, gold demand continues to be strong, with Turkish miner Koza Altin detailing plans to boost production over the next few years. With fears over trade, politics, and monetary policy escalating, gold is still favored as a hedge asset for stability and long-term protection. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold’s move through $2,910 has bolstered bullish sentiment, taking prices to a new all-time high above $2,945. The next important resistance points are at $2,951 and $2,966, with a likely push to the psychological $3,000 if purchasing pressure remains. But in case gold meets with rejection near these levels, a retreat to near-term support at $2,921 could happen, and further weakness might follow at $2,906. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is indicating conditions of overbuying, implying a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The next FOMC Minutes release may serve as a pivotal catalyst, deciding whether gold continues its upward move or experiences a short-term retracement. FORECAST Gold’s historic rally above $2,945 has fueled speculation about whether the trend will persist or experience a pullback. If geopolitical tensions rise further, especially with Trump’s belligerent approach to tariffs and Ukraine, gold may experience further upside. Safe-haven demand continues to be robust as investors hedge against economic uncertainty, and any dovish tone by the Federal Reserve in its FOMC Minutes would further push gold towards the psychological $3,000 level. Moreover, ongoing inflation worries and robust central bank purchases across the globe could continue to lend support to gold’s bullishness in the coming days. To the downside, gold is exposed to a near-term correction in case market sentiment changes. The next FOMC Minutes may provide a more sobering interest rate outlook that might dampen gold’s demand. Should the trend in rising bond yields hold, investors will rotate out of gold to move into more attractive-yielding instruments. Lastly, profit-taking at record levels may even cause gold to pull back temporarily, particularly if gold is unable to gain traction above key resistance points. A stronger dollar or positive economic indicators may also weigh on gold, causing possible retracements in the upcoming sessions.

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AUD/USD Currencies

AUD/USD Price Outlook: Bulls Target 0.6400 as Market Holds Breath for FOMC Minutes

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  • February 19, 2025
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The AUD/USD exchange rate is stable at a two-month high, trading above the mid-0.6300s, supported by a minor US Dollar weakening and the hawkish bias from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The technical landscape is bullish, with favorable momentum indicators pointing towards further gains. A move above 0.6400 would propel the pair to 0.6500 and higher, with the next level of support at 0.6330-0.6335. A continued fall below 0.6300 could leave AUD/USD vulnerable to more losses towards the 0.6200 area. Traders are now waiting for the FOMC minutes for new indications on US monetary policy, which may determine the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • A confident breakout above 0.6400 may add to gains towards 0.6500, aided by strong technical signals and optimistic sentiment. • This area continues to be an essential buying point, but a fall below 0.6300 may initiate a more severe correction to 0.6200. • USD volatility may be sparked by the release of FOMC minutes and could steer AUD/USD short-term direction based on interest rate projections. • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s inflation and monetary policy position might lend further support to AUD, maintaining the pair in a bullish trend. The AUD/USD currency pair remains in favor with investors as it trades just off a two-month high due to a softer US Dollar and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish bias. With optimism in tow, the pair continues in a bullish consolidation mode, which points to further upside if it can break above the 0.6400 resistance level. Market sentiment is closely watching the FOMC minutes coming out soon, which may pump new volatility into the USD and determine AUD/USD’s next direction. Meanwhile, support at key levels of 0.6330-0.6300 continues to be the level to watch, with a breakdown below this area potentially triggering a more substantial correction. The AUD/USD currency pair is strong close to a two-month high on the back of a softer US Dollar and a hawkish RBA outlook. A breakout above 0.6400 can propel further upside, while break-even support at 0.6330-0.6300 remains pivotal for bullish enthusiasm. Market players now expect the FOMC minutes for new directions in USD. • The pair is stable on the back of a softer USD and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy. • Sellers look for volatility as the Federal Reserve policy backdrop may affect the USD and guide AUD/USD direction. • Bullish sentiment favors additional advances, with resistance at 0.6400 and upside potential to 0.6500. • The 0.6330-0.6300 area is robust support, with a breakdown raising the prospect of 0.6200 or lower. • Australia’s trade-based economy exposes AUD/USD to global demand and movements in commodity markets. • Equity market shifts and appetite for risk assets influence the AUD/USD trends. • Trade relationships, inflation readings, and economic growth factors remain significant in influencing the currency pair’s movement in the future. The AUD/USD pair is still in focus as investors turn their eyes to major economic events and policy perspectives. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s relatively hawkish stance has supported faith in the Australian Dollar, with markets expecting a consistent approach to monetary policy. Global economic trends, such as changes in inflation and employment trends, are meanwhile having a notable influence on market sentiment. The policy guidance of the US Federal Reserve is still a key driver, with market participants closely monitoring for hints on prospective rate changes that will affect currency flows. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Apart from central bank policies, more general economic metrics like trade relationships, commodity prices, and overall market risk appetite drive AUD/USD action. Australia’s high trade connection with China and its export-based economy tend to render the currency sensitive to international demand and geopolitical events. Further, investor attitudes toward risk assets also remain active, as moves in equity markets and commodity cycles influence currency positioning. With all this in motion, traders keep a keen eye on macroeconomic trends that will form the direction of AUD/USD’s future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD is bullish, with the pair trading close to a two-month high and in a bullish consolidation mode. Favorable momentum indicators, such as oscillators on the daily chart, indicate that the trend of least resistance is to the higher side. A breakout above 0.6400 could open the doors for further upside, possibly to the 0.6500 psychological level. On the bearish side, important support is at 0.6330-0.6300, where buyers are expected to emerge. A prolonged dip below this level might portend a deeper correction, with additional support at 0.6200. Traders will be keen on price action, especially in reaction to macroeconomic developments and policy signals. FORECAST AUD/USD pair is set for additional upside as it is underpinned by a constructive market structure. A breakthrough above the 0.6400 resistance might propel additional gains, taking the pair towards the 0.6500 psychological level. If the momentum persists, the next significant target will be at 0.6555-0.6560, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a major resistance area coincide. Bullish oscillators on the daily chart indicate that the buyers are in charge, and any pullbacks could be used as a buying opportunity. A continued rally can further reinforce the bullish mood, keeping AUD/USD on a rising path. On the negative side, major support is at 0.6330-0.6300, and a breakdown below this area may initiate a more severe correction. If bearish pressure mounts, the pair can fall to 0.6265, followed by the 0.6240-0.6235 area. A fall below 0.6200 would signal a change in sentiment, and AUD/USD would be susceptible to a fall to the 0.6145 area, which was a crucial support level in recent trading sessions. Traders need to be careful because volatility can pick up, particularly around significant economic releases and central bank announcements.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Steadies Near 1.0450 Amid Tariff Threats and FOMC Minutes Anticipation

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  • February 19, 2025
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EUR/USD trades near 1.0450 with mild gains in the Asian session, supported by a weaker US Dollar. However, market sentiment remains cautious as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns could bolster the Greenback’s safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of a 25% tariff on vehicle, chip, and drug imports creates uncertainty, while Ukraine President Zelenskiy rescheduling his visit to Saudi Arabia indicates continued geopolitical tensions. At the same time, the Euro is under pressure as the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell short of expectations and rumors of successive ECB rate cuts hang over the currency. Investors shift their attention to the FOMC Minutes for more information on the Federal Reserve’s position regarding economic threats and monetary policy direction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors eagerly look for the FOMC Minutes to learn about the Fed’s position on inflation, interest rates, and possible economic threats. • The suggested 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports may fan trade tensions, tending to bolster the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. • The Euro comes under pressure with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index falling short of expectations and ECB rate cut rumors keeping pressure on the future path of the currency. • Tensions in Russia-Ukraine and the delayed Saudi Arabia trip by Zelenskiy keep markets guarded, which can influence risk mood and drive price action in EUR/USD. The EUR/USD currency pair continues to stay in the spotlight with the mixed trend of the currency market on global economic and political fronts. While a softer US Dollar gives the pair temporary boost, rising trade tensions with the imposition of tariffs by Trump on major imports can make the Greenback stronger, curbing the pair’s upside. Also contributing to volatility are geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Zelenskiy’s diplomatic moves. Weaker-than-forecasted economic sentiment data and anticipation of several ECB rate cuts on the Euro side keep the investors guarded. As FOMC Minutes are due to be released, traders will look closely for any indications of upcoming US monetary policy, which can trigger large market movements. EUR/USD trades around 1.0450 as geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions make investors remain on guard. Markets look forward to FOMC Minutes to gauge the Fed’s policy attitude. • The pair trades around 1.0450 with support from a weaker US Dollar but is resistant to geopolitical and trade tensions. • A 25% levy on auto, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports can heighten trade tensions and enhance the safe-haven status of the USD. • Market players seek indications on the policy orientation of the Fed, inflation prospects, and risk assessment of the economy. • The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index was lower than forecasted, placing added pressure on the Euro amid talk of ECB interest rate reductions. • Russia-Ukraine tensions and Zelenskiy’s delayed Saudi Arabia trip contribute to market uncertainty and risk sentiment swings. • Increasing wagers on three ECB rate reductions this year may further burden the strength of the Euro. • Market participants are cautious as significant economic indicators and geopolitical events may trigger large price movements in the EUR/USD currency pair. The global economy is presently defined by a combination of economic policy and geopolitical occurrences, with trade tensions being at the forefront. US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 25% tariff on automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports has sent investors into a tizzy, as it may affect worldwide supply chains and international trade relationships. In the meantime, the geopolitical front is still unclear, with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy delaying his visit to Saudi Arabia due to ongoing tensions with Russia. These advances build towards a hesitant market atmosphere wherein policymakers and businesses are observing intently the likely changes in trade policies and diplomacy. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Economic sentiment has been exhibiting divergent signs in the European space, with the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index not meeting forecasts. This has fueled debate over the European Central Bank’s next course of action regarding monetary policy, with market players speculating over potential interest rate changes. While economic growth continues to be the focus, disruptions in global trade and changes in economic policies create an added layer of uncertainty. As crucial reports and policy announcements are revealed, companies and investors are seeking insight into long-term economic strategies that may affect global trade, investments, and financial stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is trading around the 1.0450 level, with major resistance and support levels that may determine its next direction. The pair is testing a pivotal price area where a breakout above resistance can indicate further upward momentum, while a fall below support can confirm a bearish trend. Traders are monitoring moving averages and RSI levels closely to determine market sentiment, with volume trends suggesting potential volatility in the future. As the FOMC Minutes and geopolitical events drive market direction, technical indicators will be instrumental in determining short-term price action and key entry or exit points for traders. FORECAST EUR/USD is uncertain as several factors drive its possible movement. On the positive side, if the market responds favorably to the FOMC Minutes, reflecting a dovish or cautious approach by the Federal Reserve, the US Dollar may weaken, enabling EUR/USD to pick up pace. Also, any indication of economic strength from the Eurozone or easing of trade tensions would help support the Euro. If the pair is able to break through crucial resistance levels, it could create the opportunity for further gains, drawing in bullish sentiment. To the downside, fears of growing trade tensions, especially Trump’s suggested tariffs on significant imports, could make the US Dollar a safe-haven currency, subjecting EUR/USD to downward pressure. In addition, the Euro is still exposed to speculation regarding several ECB rate reductions this year, which would negatively impact investor sentiment. Should economic indicators for the Eurozone continue to fall short of forecasts, the pair may have trouble sustaining stability, and a breach below major support levels would be a sign of further potential decline. Traders will be keenly watching upcoming economic reports and geopolitical events

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Price Outlook: Bullish Trend Remains Above 0.5700 Despite RBNZ Policy Change

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  • February 19, 2025
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The NZD/USD currency pair bounced back above 0.5700 after RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s speech and has continued with its bullish trend despite the central bank reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points. The currency pair is still within an uptrend channel, with the 14-day RSI remaining above the 50 mark, which supports the positive outlook. Immediate support lies at the nine- and 14-day EMAs of 0.5695 and 0.5685, respectively, while resistance is seen at the 0.5790 level, aligning with the upper boundary of the channel. A break below 0.5650 could weaken the bullish bias, potentially pushing the pair toward its lowest level since October 2022 at 0.5516. KEY LOOKOUTS • NZD/USD encounters resistance at the top of the ascending channel at 0.5790, with a breakout likely taking the price to the two-month high of 0.5794. • Nine- and 14-day EMAs are nearest supports, and a breakdown below 0.5650 deters the bullish trend and augments downward pressure. • RBNZ’s 50 bps rate reduction and forecasts of more easing can steer NZD/USD’s path, altering investor sentiment and expectations of monetary policy. • The 14-day RSI is still above the 50 level, indicating ongoing bullish momentum, but a fall below this level could signal a possible trend reversal. The NZD/USD currency pair is still trading with a bullish bias, remaining above the critical 0.5700 level despite pressure from the RBNZ’s surprise rate cut. Governor Adrian Orr’s comments indicated further easing in the next few months, which could affect market sentiment and future price action. The pair is still in an uptrend channel, with the 14-day RSI upholding the positive direction. But a firm break below 0.5650 may change the bias to negative, leaving the pair vulnerable to more downside risks. Traders will keenly observe future economic data and central bank statements for additional directional signals. NZD/USD is bullish above 0.5700 on the back of an uptrending channel and RSI above 50. Break below 0.5650 may undermine momentum, turning the sentiment bearish. Market players look to RBNZ policy outlook and pivotal resistance at 0.5790 for the next cue.  • The pair is bullish despite RBNZ’s 50 bps interest rate cut, underpinned by technical indicators. • A surge above this level may drive NZD/USD to its new two-month high at 0.5794. • The nine-day EMA of 0.5695 and the 14-day EMA of 0.5685 are key support levels. • A fall below the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 0.5650 could see additional downward pressure. • The 14-day Relative Strength Index indicates ongoing bullish momentum unless it falls below this important threshold. • Governor Orr’s perspective on future rate reductions affects market sentiment and the pair’s long-term direction. • Traders need to watch for upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary for additional directional signals. The New Zealand dollar is still in the spotlight as traders respond to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s recent policy move. Governor Adrian Orr’s address brought attention to the central bank’s strategy for economic stability, with a focus on the requirement for prudent rate changes. The RBNZ lowering of the Official Cash Rate is its move to bolster growth under uncertainty globally. As inflation dynamics and jobs data become central in guiding policy, investors watch closely as these elements drive the country’s economic trajectory. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA External forces such as trade conditions and global market dynamics aside from monetary policy also determine the New Zealand dollar’s performance. As global commodity demand changes and geopolitics plays out, the currency is also sensitive to wider economic movements. The overall market forces are also brought about by changes in investor mood, especially reacting to U.S. Federal Reserve policy and general global financial health. With continued progress in local and global economies, investors stay alert to the next set of data releases and policy changes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues trading in an rising channel, reflective of consistent short-term upward motion. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to maintain a position higher than the 50 mark, confirming the bearish sentiment. Furthermore, the currency pair stands above the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), further supporting strong support at the current short-term. Resistance is seen around the 0.5790 level, which is along the channel’s top line, and the major support levels are at 0.5695 and 0.5685. A strong break above resistance would drive the pair further up, and a break below support would suggest a change in market direction. FORECAST NZD/USD can continue to rise if the bullish momentum continues, with the next major resistance at 0.5790. A break above this level might propel the pair towards the latest two-month high of 0.5794, further sustaining the upbeat sentiment. The pair’s rally may be aided by positive economic news, risk taking in international markets, or any indication of less hawkish monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve. If the buyers continue to have control, more gains towards the 0.5850 zone can be envisioned in the short term. To the downside, unless NZD/USD can hold above significant levels of support, a breakdown below 0.5650 would set the pair up for more declines. Changes in sentiment prompted by softer economic data or greater risk aversion would put downward pressure on the pair. NZD/USD would then probe lower support near 0.5516, its lowest print since October 2022. Any hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve or firmer demand for the U.S. dollar would drive the bearish move forward, and additional losses can be expected in the next few weeks.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Remains Bullish Above $32.50 Due to Market Uncertainty

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  • February 19, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) remains bullish above $32.50, bolstered by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a robust 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 66.30. Even though it slipped lower to $32.75 during the Asian session, the white metal’s downside seems capped due to policy uncertainties, such as possible tariff issues under the Trump administration. The important resistance area is at $33.30-$33.40, with the breakout capable of taking prices towards $34.55 and $34.87. To the downside, key support comes at $31.79, and an important level of contention comes at $31.00-$30.90, the level of 100-day EMA. Falling below this can push silver down towards $29.70. The FOMC Minutes are on market players’ radar for the next lead. KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver is met with instant resistance at $33.30-$33.40; a breach above this can lead prices to $34.55 and $34.87. • The initial support on the downside is at $31.79, with a key contention area at $31.00-$30.90; a breach here can drive prices to $29.70. • The 100-day EMA underpins silver’s uptrend, while the 14-day RSI at 66.30 indicates further advances in the near term. • Policy risks, such as possible tariffs under the Trump presidency, and the release of the FOMC Minutes will affect silver price volatility and movement. Silver (XAG/USD) is still in a bullish region above $32.50, aided by the 100-day EMA and a healthy RSI reading of 66.30. The near resistance is at $33.30-$33.40, and a breakout may push prices towards $34.55 and $34.87. On the negative side, support is initially at $31.79, and a break below the $31.00-$30.90 range would expose the market to more losses towards $29.70. Policy uncertainties, such as possible tariffs during the Trump administration, are affecting market sentiment, with traders looking for the FOMC Minutes for more hints on future price direction. Silver (XAG/USD) remains bullish above $32.50, underpinned by the 100-day EMA and robust RSI strength. Levels of resistance stand at $33.30-$33.40, and the level of support is $31.79. Market attention centers on policy unknowns and Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes for further guidance. • Silver (XAG/USD) continues to be positive above $32.50, underpinned by the 100-day EMA and good RSI value of 66.30. • The initial major resistance levels are at $33.30-$33.40, followed by additional target levels of $34.55 and $34.87 based on ongoing buying pressure. • Initial support levels are at $31.79, followed by a critical bearish barrier around $31.00-$30.90; a fall may take prices down to $29.70. • The price remains above the 100-day EMA, and the RSI indicates a bull run in favor of a further increase in silver. • Policy risks, such as the possibility of future tariff moves by Trump’s government, may affect silver’s movement. • Traders wait for the Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes for clues about forthcoming monetary policy and possible price action. • A change in world economic mood or surprise policy signals may result in sudden movements in silver prices. Silver (XAG/USD) remains market focus as a favored asset amidst changing economic realities and world uncertainties. Its consumption is fueled by both industrial and investment markets, making it one of the commodity market’s market movers. It finds extensive usage in electronics, solar panels, and medical procedures, which drive its long-term growth prospects. Its historical use as a safe-haven commodity also adds to its attractiveness at periods of economic downturn, as investors seek its services for diversifying their portfolios and preserving their wealth. XAG/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Silver’s price action in the market is influenced by global economic trends, monetary policy, and geopolitical events. Its demand is determined by inflation, interest rate decisions, and currency movements. Additionally, central bank policies and changes in industrial consumption still affect its valuation. With governments and industry placing emphasis on sustainable and technological developments, the use of silver in green energy technologies and electronics is likely to increase, making it even more important in the long term to the global economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) has a positive technical bias, staying above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which provides solid support at $31.00-$30.90. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 66.30, showing continuous buying pressure without reaching overbought levels. The Bollinger Bands indicate price consolidation with resistance at $33.30-$33.40, which coincides with the upper band. A successful breakout above this level can take silver to $34.55 and $34.87. On the lower side, the major support levels are at $31.79 and $31.00, with a break below potentially taking the price lower to $29.70. The overall outlook is still bullish as long as silver trades above the 100-day EMA, with investors looking to upcoming macroeconomic announcements to confirm. FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) has a positive outlook, with positive momentum boosted by solid technicals and macroeconomic conditions. If silver can hold above the critical $32.50 level, the next level of resistance is at $33.30-$33.40. A break above this level would push prices towards $34.55, a last-seen price in October 2024, and further to $34.87. Increased investor demand on the back of inflation hedging and safe-haven buying can further propel silver’s rally. Also, increased industrial consumption, especially in solar energy and electronics, contributes to its long-term potential. If world economic circumstances are conducive to commodities, silver may witness stronger demand, moving prices upward over the next couple of weeks. To the negative side, silver has strong support at $31.79 and more substantial backing in the area of $31.00-$30.90. A slip below here can set the alarm bells ringing and induce more weakness, with the next important objective at $29.70. Market uncertainties surrounding changing Federal Reserve policies and the altering risk tone can exert downward pressure on silver. If interest rates continue to be high or rise further, non-yielding assets such as silver can come under selling pressure. Any fall in industrial demand or economic slowdowns in major markets such as China and the U.S. can also put pressure on prices. A break below key support levels can trigger bearish momentum, resulting in further corrections in the near term.

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Currencies

USD/CHF Price Outlook: Fails to Hold Ground Above 0.9000 Due to Dollar Weakness and SNB Policy Rumors

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  • February 18, 2025
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The USD/CHF currency pair fails to hold ground above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar grapples with weakness in holding its recovery. Although the Federal Reserve continues to adhere to keeping interest rates unchanged, the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank, fueled by weak inflation figures, increases the likelihood of negative interest rates. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates near the 107.00 level, capping the upside for USD/CHF. The technical indicators indicate declining bullish momentum, with the 14-week RSI dropping from the high bullish zone. A clean break above 0.9244 will open the way for a further rise, while a fall below 0.9000 might initiate a deeper slide towards significant support levels. KEY LOOKOUTS • A decisive fall below this level may cause further weakness, testing the crucial support levels at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The Federal Reserve’s choice to keep interest rates between 4.25%-4.50% favors the US Dollar but caps its upside potential. • Weak CPI data feeds speculation of possible negative interest rates, weakening the Swiss Franc and influencing USD/CHF’s direction. • A move above the October 2023 high may leave the way open towards the significant resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The USD/CHF currency pair is at a crossroads with the inability of the currency to hold on to levels above the psychological mark of 0.9000. The steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve defends the US Dollar, but a decline in the momentum in the Dollar Index (DXY) keeps gains on a leash. While this, coupled with the dovish tone from the Swiss National Bank, fuel rumors of negative interest rates that might further soften the Swiss Franc, the pair is technically due a strong breakout above 0.9244 to continue its rally towards 0.9300 and beyond. A fall below 0.9000 may see it slide further to significant support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. USD/CHF has difficulty staying above 0.9000 as the US Dollar is met with resistance and the dovish stance of the Swiss National Bank causes the Franc to weaken. Further gains may be triggered by a breakout above 0.9244, and a fall below 0.9000 can cause a deeper correction. • The pair cannot hold gains above this psychological level as the US Dollar runs out of steam. • Keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by the Federal Reserve favors the Dollar but caps upside. • Soft inflation numbers add to speculation that the SNB could start negative interest rates, which would weaken the Swiss Franc. • The DXY is unable to hold above 107.00 levels, which affect the short-term price action of the USD/CHF pair. • A breakout above this level may signal more advancements to 0.9300 and 0.9342 levels. • A fall below 0.9000 may initiate further weakness, challenging support at 0.8958 and 0.8900. • The 14-week RSI is in the neutral zone, indicating that bearish momentum in USD/CHF is waning. The USD/CHF currency pair is struggling to hold above the important psychological level of 0.9000, as the US Dollar cannot hold its advance. Though the Federal Reserve has reaffirmed its policy of maintaining interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is still unstable near 107.00, capping the rally for USD/CHF. The market sentiment has also been affected by fear of future trade policies under former US President Donald Trump, and thus there is uncertainty in currency movements. At the same time, on the Swiss side, also fueling rumor has been soft inflation data that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) might drive interest rates into negative numbers in order to avoid prolonged deflation, which could weaken the Swiss Franc further in the short term. USD/CHF Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The USD/CHF currency pair cannot maintain above the psychological mark of 0.9000 as the US Dollar is confronted with resistance in the face of a volatile DXY and stable Federal Reserve policy. In contrast, poor Swiss inflation figures have increased speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may drive interest rates into negative territory, further weakening the Swiss Franc. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CHF is in the process of consolidating, with major resistance at 0.9244 serving as a critical breakout level for additional gains up to 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.8947 is rising, reflecting long-term bullish inclination. Yet, the 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the bullish area of 60.00-80.00 into the neutral area of 40.00-60.00, reflecting the loss of upside momentum. If the pair is unable to hold at 0.9000, it may force a downside motion towards major support levels of 0.8958 and 0.8900. A strong break above 0.9244 or below 0.9000 will set the next major trend for USD/CHF. FORECAST The USD/CHF pair has the potential to move up if it can break above the major resistance level of 0.9244. A clean breakout above this level may initiate a rally towards the subsequent resistance levels of 0.9300 and 0.9342. The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still remains in an upward slope, which is an indication of a long-term bull trend. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a stable interest rate policy while US economic fundamentals continue to remain robust, the US Dollar can again strengthen, driving USD/CHF upward. Any indication of additional monetary tightening or hawkish remarks from the Fed can serve as a trigger for a sustained bullish trend. On the bearish side, a breakdown below the psychological support of 0.9000 can indicate a more severe correction in the pair. A break below this point can leave USD/CHF vulnerable to further losses, with important support points at 0.8958 and 0.8900. The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped out of its bullish zone, signaling declining momentum, which will put further pressure on the pair downwards. Further, if the Swiss National Bank (SNB) does not undertake aggressive rate reductions and the Swiss Franc rises due to risk-off sentiment across the globe, USD/CHF can experience selling pressure. Any surprise US monetary policy developments or

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Commodities Gold

Gold’s Rally Gains Momentum on US-Russia Peace Negotiations and Market Sentiment

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  • February 18, 2025
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Gold maintains its rally for the second day running, reaching over $2,900 as market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions boost demand for the precious metal. The peace negotiations between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia have also boosted investor appetite, while Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for gold to $3,100 per ounce. With inflation worries and changing Federal Reserve policy, traders are paying close attention to key resistance points, and a daily close above $2,910 could lay the groundwork for a new all-time high. But technical indicators, including an overbought RSI, point to a potential cooling-off period before additional gains.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors are intently following US-Russia peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia since any significant result has the potential to influence considerably the safe-haven status of gold and its price movement. • Remarks from Fed officials like Patrick Harker and Mary Daly can impact sentiment in the markets, especially about interest rate announcements and inflation projections. • A close above $2,910 on a daily basis may signal a bullish break, with bulls targeting $2,921 and the all-time high of $2,942 as important resistance levels. • Trump’s delays and exclusions in trade policy are generating economic uncertainty, reaffirming the position of gold as a value store amid world trade worries. Gold’s pace is strong with traders keeping close tabs on key geopolitical and economic events. US-Russia peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia are the primary point of interest, with any advancement having the ability to shift sentiment in markets. Comments by Federal Reserve officials on inflation and interest rates would also impact gold’s direction, particularly following Patrick Harker’s comments on leaving current rates alone. A close above $2,910 daily would affirm bull strength, with buyers targeting resistance at $2,921 and the all-time high of $2,942. At the same time, uncertainty over US tariff policies continues to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Gold’s rally persists as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty fuel demand, with traders closely monitoring key resistance levels for a possible all-time high. US-Russia peace talks and Federal Reserve policies continue to be key drivers of market sentiment. • Gold extends rally to $2,910 amid geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty lifting demand for safe-haven precious metal. • Investors keep their eyes on developments in Saudi Arabia, where breakthroughs could revive gold’s appeal as a haven. • Public comments by Fed officials on interest rates and inflation may affect direction of gold, with traders keeping an eye for policy cues. • The gold forecast for the year-end has been raised to $3,100 per ounce by the investment bank, which attributes this to central bank purchases and ETF inflows. • A close above $2,910 on any given day will indicate more bullish momentum, and the major resistance levels are $2,921 and the all-time high at $2,942. • Trade policy delays and exclusions during Trump’s administration are building economic uncertainty, making gold’s appeal as a hedge stronger. • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling overbought levels, meaning traders can hold off for a dip in price before opening new positions. Gold remains in its bullish trend, breaking above $2,900 as investors clamor for the safe haven amidst geopolitical and economic tensions. US-Russia peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia continue to be a key area of interest, with any advancement having the potential to influence gold as a safe-haven asset. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials such as Patrick Harker and Mary Daly will also appear, giving future interest rate directions. Since the Fed is showing caution regarding inflation, market actors are paying particular attention to looking for signs which can guide the direction of gold. In between, Goldman Sachs has increased the year-end bullion target price to $3,100 an ounce on solid central bank buying and rising flows into bullion-backed ETFs. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Gold’s rally goes on as it crosses $2,900 on the back of geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. Investors are waiting with bated breath for US-Russia peace talks in Saudi Arabia, which may affect gold’s safe-haven demand. In addition, Federal Reserve officials’ future comments on inflation and interest rates might further shape market sentiment. Goldman Sachs’ updated year-end forecast of $3,100 an ounce emphasizes strong central bank demand and ETF inflows underpinning the metal’s bullishness. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS The technical position of gold continues to be bullish, with the price recovering main resistance at $2,910 and positioning the market for increased gains. Closing above this price on the daily chart would support the bullish move, with players targeting the subsequent resistance at $2,921 and the historic high of $2,942. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is, however, showing signs of overbuying, warning that the market action could get overheated. This implies the possibility of a pullback or consolidation before another breakout. Target levels to monitor are $2,893, which has already held through the Asian session, and $2,881 as the next key downside target. A break below these would initiate a short-term correction, but overall momentum is strong for further upside. FORECAST Gold’s upward momentum persists as it remains above key resistance at $2,910, indicating further potential gains. Should prices close above this mark, the next resistance target would be $2,921, with $2,942 being the all-time high. Breaking above $2,942 would take gold towards Goldman Sachs’ updated year-end target of $3,100 per ounce on the back of robust central bank demand and safe-haven appetite. Moreover, persistent geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Russia peace talks and worldwide trade uncertainties, would lead investors to gold, further supporting its bullish trend. Gold has a potential downside risk even after the strong rally because overbought technical readings are present. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the price is reaching dangerous levels of overheating, which may correct or consolidate before another increase. Immediate support is at $2,893, with $2,881 providing further support as buffers against a further drop. If selling pressure continues to build, then gold may fall towards $2,860 or even lower if Federal Reserve officials indicate a less

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AUD/USD Currencies

Australian Dollar Remains Unchanged After RBA Rate Cut: Market Response and Future Projections

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  • February 18, 2025
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The Australian Dollar has remained unchanged after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) equally expected move of reducing the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, its first rate cut in four years. Although RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the effect of high interest rates, she warned against presuming additional rate cuts. The AUD/USD currency pair was supported by a softer US Dollar, with downtrodden US retail sales and Federal Reserve officials being cautious on rate cuts. At the same time, the rise in US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, making it tough for the Australian Dollar. The market sentiment remains centered around significant support and resistance levels, with AUD/USD supporting an uptrend channel, indicating a positive bias.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Governor Michele Bullock indicated doubt regarding additional rate cuts, with future economic data being pivotal in deciding the next step by the central bank. • Fed officials emphasize caution on rate cuts with inflation worries, with US economic data being pivotal in informing future monetary policy. • Increasing US Treasury yields may make the US Dollar stronger, potentially capping AUD/USD gains despite the Australian Dollar’s strength following the RBA decision. • The duo is bullish in an uptrend channel, testing resistance at 0.6400 while important support is close to the 14-day EMA at 0.6300. Australian Dollar stability after the RBA’s rate cut confirms the market’s expectation of the move, and traders are now looking to see what future policy steps are ahead. While RBA Governor Michele Bullock hinted at indecision about further reductions, US Federal Reserve officials stuck to a wait-and-see approach, pointing to ongoing inflation threats. Increases in US Treasury yields have underpinned the US Dollar, which has made headwinds for AUD/USD even in its bullish path within an upward channel. The Australian Dollar held firm following the RBA rate cut, with investors looking to policy cues in the future. The increase in US Treasury yields, on the other hand, supported the US Dollar and proved difficult for AUD/USD. • The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, the first rate cut in four years. • The Australian Dollar did not react much since the rate cut decision had already been priced in by traders before the announcement. • Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that additional rate cuts are in doubt, mentioning robust employment and persistent inflation issues. • Higher US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar, placing downward pressure on AUD/USD even after its post-RBA bounce. • Fed officials flashed warning signals for rate cuts, citing inflation threats and calling for greater economic clarity. • AUD/USD is still in an uptrend channel, with important resistance at 0.6400 and firm support at 0.6300. • US retail sales figures, Federal Reserve actions, and China’s economic policy are still driving Australian Dollar market sentiment. The Australian Dollar stabilized after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as anticipated cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock insisted that although high interest rates have touched the economy, it is still premature to speculate about more cuts in interest rates. The Australian “Big Four” banks of CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac also followed by cutting their lending rates promptly. The most recent inflation figures reported a deceleration in price pressures as Trimmed Mean CPI increased 0.5% last quarter, down from the anticipated 0.6%. Non with standing this, the robust labor market and conservative RBA approach mean that another round of rate cuts is not certain, keeping market participants on their toes for subsequent economic releases. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA At the same time, US Dollar found strength in increasing Treasury yields, curbing AUD/USD’s up potential. The Federal Reserve still holds back on reducing interest rates, with policymakers citing ongoing inflation threats and desiring greater certainty before altering monetary policy. The USD was dented by dismal US retail sales figures temporarily before AUD/USD could recover partially. Still, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallying and Treasury yields on the rise, the Australian Dollar has resistance around 0.6400. The pair currently is trading inside an upward trend channel, important support being in place at about 0.6300, making economic statistics in the pipeline as well as remarks by the central banks crucial to its immediate next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AUD/USD pair trades in an uptrend channel, signifying the overall market bullish tendency in the near term. The pair also received support around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6316 and the 14-day EMA of 0.6300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the 50 mark, indicating positive momentum. The pair meets resistance on the upside around the top edge of the channel at 0.6390, with an important psychological level at 0.6400. A breach above the level would herald more gains, while a decline below the support line of approximately 0.6280 may suggest a reversal. Investors will be looking out for these key levels for indication of a trend breakdown or a breakout. FORECAST The Australian Dollar remains in a bullish bias as long as it continues to trade in its rising channel, with the next resistance being at 0.6390 and the critical psychological level of 0.6400. If the pair is able to break above 0.6400, this may set further upside momentum into play, the next target being at 0.6450. Supportive reasons for the upward movement are a soft US Dollar, which could come under stress if economic indicators indicate that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy ahead of time. Also, any indication of strength in the Australian economy, especially in labor market data or inflation management, could support the AUD and bring further advances. AUD/USD has critical support at 0.6316 (nine-day EMA) and 0.6300 (14-day EMA). A breakdown below these levels may drive the pair to 0.6280, which is the lower end of the ascending channel. In case of a further increase in selling pressure, the next key support is at

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Falls Before UK Labor Market Figures: Most Important Factors Contributing to the Market Decline

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  • February 18, 2025
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GBP/USD has fallen around 1.2600 before important UK labor market figures, ending its five-day streak of gains. Traders expect an increase in unemployment and claimant count, which may weigh on the British Pound. UK PM Keir Starmer’s demand for a “US backstop” in a Ukraine peace agreement also brings geopolitical uncertainty. On the American side, the Dollar rallies on increasing Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments, with policymakers reiterating that inflation threats remain. From a technical point of view, GBP/USD is approaching major support at 1.2600, with additional selling potential if numbers are disappointing. Investors are closely watching UK job data and Fed policy cues for the next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • UK labor figures are awaited by traders, as the unemployment rate is predicted to increase to 4.5%, influencing GBP/USD. • UK PM Keir Starmer demands any peace agreement for Ukraine should come with a “US backstop” to prevent future Russian incursions. • Higher US Treasury yields and hawkish tone of Fed policymakers maintain the US Dollar strong, exerting pressure on GBP/USD. • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautions against ongoing inflation risks, proposing additional data should be seen before cuts in interest rates. GBP/USD comes under selling pressure, falling around 1.2600 as market participants look forward to pivotal UK labor market information. The anticipated increase in unemployment and claimant count might act as a drag on the British Pound. In the meantime, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed the importance of a “US backstop” in any peace deal for Ukraine to discourage further Russian aggression. Conversely, the US Dollar strengthens as Treasury yields rise, buoyed by dovish comments from Fed officials. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautioned that inflation risks remain, indicating that more clarity is required before rate cuts can be considered. These together form the near-term direction for GBP/USD. GBP/USD falls close to 1.2600 as markets await UK labor figures, where unemployment is anticipated to increase. Meanwhile, the US Dollar firm up due to higher Treasury yields and dovish stance of Fed officials regarding inflation. UK PM Keir Starmer’s demand for a “US backstop” in peace negotiations for Ukraine brings in geopolitical risk. • The duo falls to around 1.2600 prior to the highly important UK labor market numbers, snapping its five-day success run. • The jobless rate is expected to climb to 4.5%, while the claimant count should increase by 10K, which will influence GBP sentiment. • UK PM Keir Starmer emphasizes that any peace agreement for Ukraine must be accompanied by a “US backstop” to prevent Russian aggression in the future. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounces back on the back of surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed comments, putting pressure on GBP/USD. • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterates ongoing inflation threats, emphasizing added clarity is necessary before rate cuts are on the cards. • Investors hold back following Fed Governor Waller’s concession of slower inflation gains, adding to doubt on monetary policy action. • Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty propel GBP/USD volatility, and investors are focusing intently on forthcoming data announcements. GBP/USD has declined close to 1.2600 prior to the release of UK labor market data, bringing an end to its five consecutive days of advances. Investors closely observe the job numbers, which are anticipated to increase the unemployment rate to 4.5% and to grow the claimant count by 10K. A weaker-than-expected labor market could weigh further on the British Pound, adding to its recent decline. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the need for a “US backstop” in any Ukraine peace deal to prevent future Russian aggression, adding a geopolitical dimension to market sentiment.  GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the American side, the Dollar is strengthening on the back of rising Treasury yields and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen after three consecutive days of decline as 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.27% and 4.51%, respectively. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has cautioned that inflation risks are still high and cautioned against moves to cut rates before more clarity is evident. In the same vein, Fed Governor Christopher Waller recognized sluggish progress in curbing inflation, cementing doubt about future policy action. All these factors combined point to GBP/USD’s bearish risk as investors wait for crucial economic indicators. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is confronted with short-term support around the 1.2600 psychological mark, with a further drop possibly challenging the 1.2570 and 1.2530 support levels. A fall below these levels may create room for a more significant pullback to 1.2500. On the positive side, resistance is observed at 1.2650, followed by the recent high at 1.2700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also turning down, reflecting bearish momentum, while the 50-day moving average at 1.2620 may serve as a dynamic resistance. Traders will be observing if GBP/USD can maintain above crucial support levels or continue its downside move in the face of fundamental pressures.  FORECAST If the UK labor market data surprises positively, showing resilience in employment figures, GBP/USD could regain strength. A better-than-expected jobs report might boost investor confidence in the British economy, pushing the pair towards the 1.2650 resistance level. If buying momentum continues, the next upside target would be 1.2700, followed by 1.2750, where significant resistance lies. Also, any dovish indications from the Federal Reserve for upcoming rate cuts may bring down the US Dollar, which will help propel a GBP/USD recovery. Conversely, if UK jobs data fail to impress with rising unemployment and an increased claimant count, GBP/USD may witness selling pressure. A fall below the important 1.2600 support could see further declines towards 1.2570 and 1.2530. Further, a more hawkish US Dollar, fueled by Fed hawkish commentary and an increase in Treasury yields, may hasten the losses. Should bearish pressure continue, GBP/USD might fall to the 1.2500 psychological support, testing 1.2450 in a protracted downtrend.

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Currencies

USD/CAD Forecast: Bearish Momentum Grows Pre-Employment of Canadian CPI Inflation Data

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  • February 18, 2025
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USD/CAD is trading close to 1.4205 in early European trading, with a bearish bias pre-employment of Canada’s CPI inflation data publication. The pair is still under pressure below the 100-period EMA, with the RSI indicator continuing to signal bearish momentum. The initial key support level stands at 1.4151, with additional downside potential to 1.4130 and the psychological 1.4100 level. On the positive side, near-term resistance is at 1.4265, with a possible breakout to 1.4310 and 1.4380. Focus remains on Canada’s inflation reading, due to increase 1.8% YoY, which may affect USD/CAD’s next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS        • January inflation report, due at 1.8% YoY, will be a determining factor affecting USD/CAD’s next direction and market mood. • The initial resistance at 1.4265, then 1.4310 and 1.4380, may decide whether USD/CAD makes a bullish reversal. • Important downside levels at 1.4151, 1.4130, and 1.4100 will play a pivotal role in determining whether bear pressure becomes more intense in the short term. • A stronger U.S. dollar would cap downside action, while risk sentiment and economic data releases will influence near-term USD/CAD price action. USD/CAD is also in the limelight as traders wait for Canada’s CPI inflation data, expected to increase 1.8% YoY in January. With the pair hovering around 1.4205, the technicals favor a bearish bias since it is still below the 100-period EMA and the RSI is hovering around 46.25. The key downside levels to keep an eye on are 1.4151, followed by 1.4130 and the psychological level of 1.4100. On the positive side, a break above 1.4265 can drive the pair towards 1.4310 and 1.4380. The sentiment of the market and the strength of the U.S. dollar will determine the direction of the next move in USD/CAD. The USD/CAD currency pair quotes around 1.4205 with a bearish bias prior to Canada’s CPI inflation, due out at 1.8% YoY. Important support areas are at 1.4151 and 1.4100, whereas resistance at 1.4265 may dictate further upside potential. Market sentiment and the strength of the U.S. dollar will dictate the next direction of the pair. • USD/CAD is still in pressure below the 100-period EMA, with the RSI at 46.25 showing continuous downside momentum. • Inflation is forecasted to increase by 1.8% YoY in January, impacting sentiment and possible price action in USD/CAD. • Support appears at 1.4151, with deeper potential downside toward 1.4130 and the psychological area of 1.4100. • Resistance is at 1.4265, a breakout potentially pushing the pair through to 1.4310 and 1.4380. • The performance of the Greenback, along with risk mood, will play the key role in deciding whether USD/CAD goes on losing further or corrects. • The pair is moving below the 100-period EMA, while the Bollinger Bands also indicate greater near-term selling pressure. • Buyers and sellers would keep a sharp eye on Canadian CPI releases as well as wider market dynamics because volatility could inject steep price actions in USD/CAD. The USD/CAD currency pair is still under bearish pressure, trading below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is a fundamental indicator of negative momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.25 also supports the negative bias, indicating sellers are still in command as long as it remains below the midline. The Bollinger Bands show rising volatility, with the price approaching the lower band, which is a sign of possible further falls. The initial important support level is 1.4151, which a breakdown below may further speed up selling down to 1.4130 and the psychological support of 1.4100. The levels will play a determining factor in ascertaining whether the bearish trend continues. USD/CAD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the other hand, on the resistance, the initial important barrier is at 1.4265, which coincides with the top Bollinger Band. A decisive breakout above this level may drive the pair to 1.4310, which coincides with the 100-period EMA. In case buyers can sustain momentum beyond here, more upside potential is available towards 1.4380, the February 10 high. As long as the price is below key resistance points and the RSI is unable to break above 50, the downside bias continues to prevail. Market participants will be paying close attention to Canadian CPI releases and overall risk sentiment, as these underlying drivers may cause tremendous volatility and determine USD/CAD’s next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/CAD is still bearish, with the pair below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which confirms bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 46.25, which is biased towards sellers as long as it remains below the midline. The initial major support is at 1.4151, a fall below which may open up further losses towards 1.4130 and the psychological level of 1.4100. On the higher side, resistance is encountered at 1.4265, coinciding with the top Bollinger Band, with additional obstacles at 1.4310 and 1.4380. A clear break above these levels may change direction towards a reversal to the upside, but presently, the technical indicators are biased towards a further downtrend. FORECAST USD/CAD has some space for upward correction if important resistance levels are broken. The initial resistance level to monitor is 1.4265, which coincides with the top of the Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could propel the pair to 1.4310, where the 100-period EMA is the next important barrier. If bullish sentiment gains strength, a prolonged rally may aim at 1.4380, the February 10 high. Favorable U.S. economic news or disappointing Canadian CPI inflation data may provide the impetus for a break higher, pushing fresh interest into the U.S. dollar. Moreover, if risk appetite tips in favor of safe-haven assets, USD appreciation may sustain an upside breakout. On the negative side, bearish momentum is still in control as long as the pair is below the 100-period EMA and the RSI is below 50. The initial important support is at 1.4151, the February 14 low, and a break below this level can pick up selling pressure. The next target on the downside is 1.4130, close to the lower edge of

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