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Commodities Gold

Gold Price Remains Steady Near $2,900: Market Sentiment, USD Influence, and Prospects Ahead

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  • February 17, 2025
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Gold price (XAU/USD) remains stable near the $2,900 level, buoyed by persistent fears of a global trade war owing to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist tariff measures. Though the precious metal gains from a softer US Dollar in the wake of disappointing retail sales figures, the market remains on guard as the Federal Reserve continues to stick to its hawkish stance. Optimism in US-Russia peace negotiations and positive risk mood have capped gains. Technically, gold’s positive bias holds good, with important resistance levels at $2,925 and an all-time high at $2,943, and key support levels of $2,885 and $2,855. Any solid break below $2,785 would lead to a sharp correction.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Fears over Trump’s possible trade tariffs, such as on autos, may propel safe-haven demand for gold, greatly affecting price action. • The Fed’s aggressive stance and anticipation of extended higher rates can affect gold’s attractiveness, with market now looking towards a possible rate cut in September. • USD movement, as driven by economic releases and Treasury yields, is still a pivotal determinant of gold’s short-term price direction. • Gold is resisted at $2,925 and $2,943, while significant support levels at $2,885 and $2,855 may determine the next market direction. Gold price is still sensitive to various issues, such as US tariff policy, Federal Reserve actions, and the US Dollar strength. Increased fear of Trump’s possible trade tariffs, especially on cars, has supported safe-haven demand for gold. In the meantime, sentiment remains skewed towards a September Fed rate cut over year-end, which is supporting market views. The price action of the US Dollar, fueled by Treasury yields and economic data, is instrumental in setting the near-term gold direction. Technically, resistance around $2,925 and $2,943 could cap advances, with support around $2,885 and $2,855 being the game-changers in stopping a steeper correction. Gold price fluctuates around $2,900, pushed by US tariff worries, Fed actions, and USD fluctuations. Important resistance at $2,925 and support at $2,885 are still pivotal. • Gold price holds steady at the $2,900 level, buoyed by safe-haven buying amid geopolitical and economic risks. • Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs and possible automobile tariffs stoke fear of a worldwide trade war, making gold more attractive. • The hawkishness of the Fed and anticipation of a rate cut delay influence gold’s short-term price action. • A bearish US Dollar, fueled by poor US Retail Sales figures, has temporarily boosted gold prices. • US-Russia talks, as well as increased tensions in Ukraine, bolster gold’s safe-haven demand. • The resistance is found at $2,925 and $2,943, and the key support areas are at $2,885 and $2,855, dictating price action. • A combination of risk-on mood and tension about inflation impacts gold’s ability to hold gains or correct lower. Gold price continues to be technically resilient, holding on to its bullish foundation around the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off from overbought levels, diminishing the likelihood of an immediate correction while continuing to support additional upside potential. Critical resistance levels to monitor are $2,925, followed by the all-time high around $2,943. A successful breakout above this area could stimulate fresh buying, continuing the uptrend and opening the door to higher levels. Moving averages also show a strong bullish trend, supporting the potential for additional gains if market conditions continue to be favorable. XAU/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the downside, near-term support is at $2,885, followed by a more robust support area around $2,855 and $2,834. If gold falls below these levels, buyers might come in to support the uptrend, capping losses. Still, a clear-cut breakdown below $2,800 might turn sentiment to bearish side, causing a more extensive correction towards $2,785-$2,784. Participants also need to keep an eye on global economic news, specifically US interest rate expectations and geopolitics, that might fuel volatility and impact gold’s price movements in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold price continues to be in bullish territory, sustaining itself at the $2,900 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from the overbought territory, indicating scope for further action, with other oscillators remaining in positive favor. Near-term resistance is at $2,925, with the all-time high around $2,943. A convincing breakout above this level would propel fresh buying momentum, extending the current uptrend. Support is seen at $2,885 on the downside, with firm demand likely at $2,855 and $2,834. A break below $2,800 with continued momentum would indicate a deeper correction, and possibly a bearish change in direction. FORECAST Gold price is well-set up for additional gains, with good technical support and safe-haven demand being major drivers. If the price holds above the $2,900 level, an initial drive up towards the $2,925 resistance level is anticipated. A clean breakout above this level can see gold challenge its all-time high of $2,943, and if the momentum continues, it might stretch further to $2,960-$2,975. Events like continued US Dollar weakness, heightened geopolitical tensions, or a dovish turn in the Federal Reserve stance may further accelerate the rally in gold. Gold’s positive outlook notwithstanding, downside risks are present. If the price is rejected at resistance levels and goes below $2,885, it may lead to a pullback to $2,855 and then to $2,834. A breach below the crucial psychological level of $2,800 would mark a change in sentiment, leading to a more significant correction to $2,785 or even $2,750. Improved US economic data, a US Dollar rebound, or decreased geopolitical tensions may cap gold’s upside and mount selling pressure in the short term.

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Commodities Silver

Silver Price Prediction: XAG/USD Continues to Gain with Bullish Momentum, Targets $33.10 Resistance

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  • February 17, 2025
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Silver (XAG/USD) maintains its bullish momentum, trading at around $32.40 after bouncing off the nine-day EMA at $32.08. The daily chart technical analysis indicates a strong bullish inclination, with the price trending in an upward channel. Solid short-term momentum is indicated by the metal’s status above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. Main levels of resistance are at $33.10 and the four-month high of $33.40, with support at $32.08, $31.85, and $31.60. Breaking below these points could turn the outlook bearish, sending silver lower to the five-month low of $28.74.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Silver is tested by serious resistance at $33.10, the top of the rising channel, with additional upside potential to $33.40. • The nine-day EMA at $32.08 provides early support, with a breakdown below potentially revealing additional downside to $31.85 and $31.60. • Silver is above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI above 50, providing additional evidence of short-term bullish pressure. • A break decisively above $33.10 might encourage additional gains, with a fall beneath $31.60 potentially shifting sentiment bearish towards December’s five-month low at $28.74. Silver (XAG/USD) continues in bullish mode, trading around $32.40 as it holds above important levels of support such as the nine-day EMA at $32.08. The price remains within an up-sloping channel, the resistance being $33.10 and the additional upside target $33.40. Technical factors, including the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 and the price above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, indicate ongoing strength. A breakdown below $31.60 would, however, undermine the positive outlook, opening silver to further losses to the five-month low set in December at $28.74. The major levels to monitor are these. Silver (XAG/USD) is trading close to $32.40, holding bullish sentiment above significant support levels. A move above $33.10 could indicate further advances, and a fall below $31.60 could break the trend. • Silver is trading close to $32.40, holding a bullish sentiment in an upward channel. • The next resistance is at $33.10, and a breakout could push prices to $33.40. • First support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), followed by $31.85 and $31.60. • Silver is above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI at more than 50, showing strong momentum. • A breakout above $33.10 could propel further advances, while a breakdown below $31.60 might turn sentiment bearish. • If silver breaks below $31.60, it could test the December low of $28.74. • Traders need to watch price action around key levels to gauge future direction and possible breakout opportunities. Silver (XAG/USD) continues to remain in its bull trend, being above major moving averages and trending within an increasing channel. It is currently priced above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), meaning it has great short-term momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still above the 50 level, showing consistent buying momentum. Resistance appears at $33.10, which sits on the upper edge of the rising channel, then there is a major breakout level at $33.40, its four-month high. If silver manages to break through these resistance points, it may set the stage for additional advances in the sessions ahead.  XAG/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the negative side, the immediate support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), then $31.85 (14-day EMA) and the lower limit of the rising channel at $31.60. A fall below this key area can undermine the bullish scenario, setting the stage for a more extensive retracement towards $28.74, the five-month low of December. But as long as silver stays in the rising channel and above crucial EMAs, the overall trend is still positive. Traders need to keep a close eye on price action around these crucial technical levels to gauge possible breakouts or reversals in the next sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Silver (XAG/USD) still shows strong bullish momentum, aided by key technical indicators. The price is still above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), solidifying the rising trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark, suggesting continuous buying pressure. Silver is in an upward channel, with resistance at $33.10 and a breakout level at $33.40. On the downside, immediate support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), then at $31.85 (14-day EMA) and $31.60 (channel support). A drop below this level would invalidate the bullish contention, leaving silver vulnerable to further losses towards $28.74, the December low.  FORECAST Silver (XAG/USD) is still in a robust bullish trend, with the metal trading above significant technical levels. The metal’s ability to break above the immediate resistance of $33.10 could set the stage for further gains towards the four-month high of $33.40. A continued break over this level can initiate further buying pressure, leading silver to $34.00 and higher. This bullish view is further supported by the price remaining above the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still above 50. As long as silver trades within the rising channel, there is every reason for the upward momentum to continue, with fresh highs expected if market sentiment continues to remain bullish. Even with silver’s robust bullish momentum, risks of a decline are present if key support levels are breached. The initial key support is at $32.08 (nine-day EMA), then $31.85 (14-day EMA) and the lower edge of the rising channel at $31.60. A breach below this key area may undermine the bullish setup and lead to further falls. If silver dips below $31.60, it could come under selling pressure, leaving the price vulnerable to further corrections towards $30.50 and possibly the five-month low of $28.74 in December. Volatility in the market, changes in investor sentiment, or surprise economic data releases may trigger downward movements. Traders must be on their guard and watch these support levels closely for trend reversals.

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Currencies USD/JPY

Japanese Yen Gains on Strong GDP Data, Puts Pressure on USD/JPY Near One-Week Low

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  • February 17, 2025
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The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to hold strong gains after a strong Q4 GDP report supported expectations of more interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Narrowing US-Japan rate difference, combined with persistent weakness of the US Dollar (USD) amid disappointing US retail sales and market skepticism around Trump’s offered reciprocal tariffs, holds the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. Owing to hawkishness offered by the Federal Reserve, offering some support for the USD notwithstanding, the functional bias remains skewed towards JPY bulls, making a further lower direction for the currency pair quite likely. Support levels are key around 151.40 and 150.00, with any bounce being met with resistance at 152.70 and higher.  KEY LOOKOUTS • Solid Q4 GDP growth of 2.8% supports the view that the Bank of Japan will keep tightening monetary policy. • A soft US Retail Sales report and worries over Trump’s retaliatory tariffs keep the USD at a two-month low, bearing down on the USD/JPY pair. • The diminishing gap between US and Japanese interest rates strengthens the Yen, increasing investor confidence in Japan’s currency amid BoJ’s hawkish stance. • USD/JPY faces immediate support near 151.40, with further downside potential toward 150.00, while resistance lies at 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen continues to strengthen as robust Q4 GDP data reinforces expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The decline in the US-Japan rate differential and continued US Dollar softness, fueled by soft US Retail Sales data and reservations regarding Trump’s proposed tit-for-tat tariffs, maintain the USD/JPY cross close to a one-week low. Although the Federal Reserve’s hard-dollar bias lends some support to the USD, overall sentiment remains in favor of JPY bulls. Critical support for the duo comes around the 151.40 and 150.00 points, whereas any bounce could see stiff resistance near 152.70 and 154.00. The Japanese Yen is still strong following positive Q4 GDP numbers, further solidifying BoJ rate hike expectations and putting pressure on USD/JPY around a one-week low. Poor US Retail Sales and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs worries also bear down further on the USD, as key support and resistance levels at 151.40 and 152.70, respectively. • Japan’s Q4 GDP increased by 2.8%, further solidifying hopes for additional Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes. • The Japanese Yen holds its ground, driving the USD/JPY pair down as the US Dollar weakens. • A steep 0.9% decline in US retail sales puts further pressure on the USD, dampening investor sentiment. • Uncertainty in the markets regarding Trump’s tariffs plans on US imports is adding to USD weakness and JPY strength. • A narrowing gap between US and Japanese interest rates is further adding to the bullish momentum of the Yen. • USD/JPY is supported close to 151.40 and 150.00, but resistance is found at 152.70 and 154.00. • The USD gets some support from the Fed’s determination to hold rates higher, capping USD/JPY losses deeper than this. The Japanese Yen keeps gaining strength with Japan’s 2.8% Q4 GDP growth increasing hopes of higher rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The constricting US-Japan rate gap, coupled with soft US economic indicators, has held the USD/JPY pair close to a one-week low. The US Dollar is still under the gun after the sudden 0.9% fall in US retail sales to signal weakening consumer expenditures. Moreover, uncertainty surrounding former President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs has contributed to market uncertainty, which has dampened the USD further. Investors currently expect a stronger Yen in the short term, with major support levels at 151.40 and 150.00. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Even though the USD is weak, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance on interest rates serves as a counterbalance, stopping further losses in the USD/JPY pair. The Fed’s hesitation to reduce rates in the near future gives some relief to the USD, but its upside is still limited by prevailing sentiment. The USD/JPY technical levels are being watched closely by traders, with resistance at 152.70 and 154.00, which would see a short-covering rally if broken. Still, with the BoJ tightening measures and a closing rate gap, the bullish momentum in the Yen is set to continue, placing pressure on the currency pair during the next few sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS USD/JPY currency pair is trading close to significant support levels at 151.40, with further downside risk towards the psychological 150.00 level. Daily chart oscillators are still in bearish territory, and the decreasing US-Japan rate gap continues to support the Yen. A slide below 150.90 could further enhance selling pressure, driving the pair towards the 149.60-149.55 range and possibly testing the 149.00 support. On the higher side, any bounce might find stiff resistance at 152.70, which coincides with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A breakout above 153.15 (100-day SMA) may result in a short-covering rally, pushing the pair to 154.00 and the 154.75-154.80 supply area. But since fundamentals favor the Yen, the overall trend will remain bearish unless USD bulls take charge again. FORECAST USD/JPY pair can recover if some conditions are met. A breach above the 152.00 level may propel the pair towards the robust resistance level of 152.70, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A firm breakout above this level might lead to a short-covering rally, driving the pair towards the 153.15 region (100-day SMA). If bullish pressure intensifies, the subsequent target is around the 154.00 psychological level, then the 154.45-154.50 supply zone. Another push higher might have the pair retracing last week’s high in the vicinity of the 154.75-154.80 area, if the US Dollar regains power on the back of aggressive Federal Reserve policy or improved risk appetite for global markets. USD/JPY remains below 152.00, with near-term support around 151.40-151.45. A break below here might trigger selling pressure faster, taking the pair down to 150.90, which is the lowest level since December 10. Further falls might test the psychological 150.00, with longer losses making the descent towards the support

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Consolidation Near Multi-Week Highs with Bullish Potential

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  • February 17, 2025
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The EUR/USD currency pair is correcting around a multi-week high, just below the psychological 1.0500 level, after its sharp appreciation last week. The technical environment still favors bulls, with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and positive oscillators offering scope for further upside. A close above 1.0545-1.0555 may set the stage for further gains towards 1.0600 and higher. But if the pair does not hold 1.0465, it might lead to a drop to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s, with momentum returning to the bears. Traders can monitor key support and resistance levels for possible breakout or retracement strategies. KEY LOOKOUTS • A breakout above this confluence area, including the 50% Fibonacci level and 100-day EMA, could propel EUR/USD towards the 1.0600 level. • A firm breakdown below this 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level may indicate weakness, pulling EUR/USD down to 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s in the near future. • A weaker US Dollar still favors the pair’s upward momentum, but any reversal of USD strength may limit gains and initiate fresh falls. • If EUR/USD breaks above the December 2024 swing high, it could confirm an extension of the bullish trend, paving the way for a long-term recovery from multi-year lows. The EUR/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation at its multi-week high, just below the 1.0500 level as investors weigh their next move. The technical bias is bullish, and a possible breakout above the resistance zone of 1.0545-1.0555, which contains the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 100-day EMA, may push the pair to 1.0600 and 1.0630. However, a drop below the support level of 1.0465 may change the trend in favor of the bears, driving the pair lower to 1.0400 and the mid-1.0300s. The performance of the US Dollar continues to be a prime driver, and any revival in greenback demand has the potential to cap EUR/USD gains or initiate a slide. These levels need to be watched closely by traders to understand the pair’s next move. The EUR/USD pair consolidates below 1.0500, with bullish potential if it breaks above 1.0545-1.0555, heading towards 1.0600. A fall below 1.0465 could lead to further losses towards 1.0400. The US Dollar’s movement continues to be the most important factor in deciding the pair’s next direction. • EUR/USD is trapped in a narrow range close to a multi-week high, unable to break above the crucial 1.0500 psychological level. • Upbeat oscillators and a move above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level are in favor of additional upside momentum. • A breakout above this confluence area (50% Fibonacci retracement + 100-day EMA) may drive EUR/USD towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. • Sustaining above this level is vital for maintaining bullish momentum; a break below could initiate losses towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. • Softer US Dollar is bullish for EUR/USD, but rebound in USD strength could cap further upside. • Failure of support at 1.0465 could lead to increased selling pressure, focusing attention on 1.0200 in a further bearish continuation. • Market participants need to watch price closely around key levels to validate a breakout above 1.0545 or a breakdown below 1.0465 for clear trend direction. The EUR/USD currency pair remains cautiously bullish with solid technical support at 1.0465 serving as an important level to the buyers. A move through the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, including the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100-day EMA, may validate further higher potential. With the pair trading above this band, the following targets would include 1.0600 and 1.0630, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement lies. A successful break above these levels could prolong the recent upturn to 1.0700, further bolstering the uptrend. Optimistic momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD favor this case, indicating bulls might try to regain higher levels in the short term. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA But the bear risks persist if EUR/USD cannot hold the 1.0465 support level. A decisive break below this point could signal weakness, dragging the pair toward the 1.0400 psychological level and further down to the mid-1.0300s, which align with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A deeper sell-off could see EUR/USD testing 1.0200, especially if the US Dollar strengthens due to hawkish Federal Reserve policies or better-than-expected US economic data. Traders must monitor market sentiment and major economic releases, as any change in the strength of the USD would significantly impact the pair’s next significant move. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is maintaining its position close to a multi-week high, with the price action being supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the November-January downtrend. The daily chart oscillators are still in positive territory, indicating bullish momentum. A clean break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance area, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day EMA, may drive the pair towards 1.0600 and 1.0630. The 1.0465 level is immediate support on the downside, and a fall below this level could trigger falls towards 1.0400 and mid-1.0300s. The 200-day EMA and support trendline will also be responsible for identifying the next direction. Breakout confirmations above resistance or below support should be looked out for by traders to gauge the pair’s next trend. FORECAST The EUR/USD pair will remain bullish as long as it remains above the 1.0465 support level, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A clear break above the 1.0545-1.0555 resistance level, which encompasses the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 100-day EMA, would propel it further up. In case the pair manages to hold its ground past this area, the next trigger would be 1.0600, then the 1.0630 level, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is present. A continued rally above this level may prolong the recent upturn, and the pair may move towards 1.0700 in the next few weeks. But for the bullish trend to gain momentum, the buyers must overcome these resistance levels with good volume and strength. On the other hand, a failure to stay above the 1.0465 support level may turn the tide in favor of the bears. A clean break below this

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZD/USD Rises to Two-Month High: Weaker US Dollar and Optimism in Markets Fuel Gains

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  • February 17, 2025
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NZD/USD is on its third day of rise, hitting a two-month high of about 0.5750 as the US Dollar stays weak. The Greenback continues to face pressure following weak US Retail Sales data and a delay in Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, which have weakened investor mood. Meanwhile, hope for Trump’s strategy to end the Russia-Ukraine crisis contributes to the risk-on atmosphere, further backing the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish bias and the anticipation of a major rate reduction by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may limit further increases. Technically, last week’s break above 0.5700 reinforces the bullish scenario, and any short-term corrections offer a chance to buy on the cheap before the key RBNZ meeting. KEY LOOKOUTS        • The US Dollar is still under pressure from dismal Retail Sales and a hold-up in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, solidifying NZD/USD advances. • Optimism over Trump’s suggested solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosts market mood, giving strength to the Kiwi against the Greenback. • The Federal Reserve’s aggressive tone is counter to hopes of a large rate cut by the RBNZ, which could limit NZD/USD’s rally. • Last week’s break above the 0.5700 level adds to bullish momentum, setting NZD/USD up for further gains unless market conditions turn unexpectedly. NZD/USD gains momentum, rising to a two-month high with the US Dollar weakening in the face of soft Retail Sales and the hold-up of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The pair gets support from upbeat market mood following the hopes over Trump’s efforts in de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war. Still, the widening gap between the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s planned rate reductions might cap additional gains. Technically, the break higher last week above 0.5700 supports a bullish view, and any near-term pullback is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity prior to the important RBNZ meeting. NZD/USD rises to a two-month peak on back of persistent USD weakness and improved market mood. Yet Fed-RBNZ policy divergence could restrict further upside scope. • The pair maintains its upward momentum to around 0.5750 in the wake of persistent USD weakness. • Frustrating US retail sales and delay in Trump’s reciprocal tariffs remain to keep Greenback under the pump. • Positive sentiment with respect to how Trump is containing the Russia-Ukraine war bolsters NZD/USD’s strength. • The hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve in comparison to hoped-for major cut by the RBNZ later can limit NZD/USD’s gains. • Last week’s break higher past the level of 0.5700 maintains the upside story for NZD/USD. • Any near-term correction would be a buying opportunity before the key RBNZ meeting. • The RBNZ meeting and additional US economic data releases will determine NZD/USD’s next direction. NZD/USD continues its bullish trend after breaching the key 0.5700 resistance level, reaffirming a strong bull trend. The breakout indicates additional upside potential, with the next target at 0.5800. The duo is still comfortably above major moving averages, indicating persistent buying pressure. Moreover, the recent price action also shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the bullishness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near overbought levels, which may indicate a short-term pullback, but overall, the uptrend is intact as long as the price is above the 0.5700 support level. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA A corrective pullback should find support around 0.5700, a level that was resistance in the past and can now act as a solid floor for buyers. Below this, further support can be found around 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. On the upside, a break above 0.5750 should see further buying, driving the pair to 0.5800 and beyond. However, traders should exercise caution as the upcoming RBNZ meeting could introduce volatility, potentially influencing the Kiwi’s trajectory. Overall, the technical outlook favors the bulls, but market participants should watch for any fundamental shifts that could alter the trend. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS NZD/USD has strengthened its bullish outlook after breaking above the key 0.5700 resistance level last week. This breakout indicates strong buying momentum, with the next potential upside target around 0.5800. The duo is trading above significant moving averages, maintaining a bullish inclination, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around overbought levels, which may result in a short-term correction. But any correction will find support at 0.5700, which has become a critical support level. Further appreciation will be seen if buyers continue to drive the prices higher, but care is to be exercised before the RBNZ meeting, which may create volatility. FORECAST NZD/USD’s recent break above the 0.5700 resistance line is a bullish indication of firm buying pressure, and there could be more to go if such momentum is maintained. A strong continuation above 0.5750 could open the door to testing the psychological level of 0.5800, which will serve as the next hurdle. If the bullish trend continues, the pair may even push higher to 0.5850, particularly if the US Dollar stays soft in the wake of softer economic information or a dovish Fed prognosis. Favorable risk attitudes and optimism over developments in geopolitics would also play in favor of the Kiwi, further augmenting its strength against the Greenback in the near term. In spite of the bullish inclination, NZD/USD is still susceptible to possible pullbacks, particularly if the next RBNZ meeting indicates aggressive rate cuts, which would soften the Kiwi. A breakdown below the 0.5700 support level may initiate a more significant correction, with the next significant support at 0.5660, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. If selling pressure increases, the pair may fall towards 0.5600, where buyers might try to stem further losses. Furthermore, any US Dollar rebound, as a result of hawkish Fed statements or more robust than anticipated economic numbers, may cap NZD/USD’s upside and reverse momentum in favor of the bears.

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Surges on Waning Trade War Risks and ECB Rate Cut Expectations

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  • February 5, 2025
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EUR/USD is trading above 1.0400 as the US Dollar drops on the back of dwindling fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China. The investors are of the view that the extent of the trade war will remain restricted, thereby easing the risk premium on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to continue cutting interest rates, reinforcing market speculation about further policy easing. Even though the Euro underperformed against other major currencies, EUR/USD continues to gain as traders focus on upcoming US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI. Technical indicators are showing cautionary signals; however, important resistance lies at 1.0500, while support stands close to 1.0177, so the pair is in a vulnerable recovery phase. KEY LOOKOUTS • US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI for January would have implications on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. • The European Central Bank is expected to continue reducing interest rates, with traders pricing in three more rate cuts in upcoming policy meetings. • Market sentiment remains cautious as the US and China impose tariffs, though investors believe the trade war will not escalate further globally. • EUR/USD faces key resistance at 1.0500, while major support levels lie at 1.0177 and 1.0100, shaping the pair’s near-term price action. Investors are keeping a close eye on key developments affecting EUR/USD, such as US economic data releases due in the coming days, like the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which may help guide the Federal Reserve’s policy course. On the other hand, the European Central Bank continues to cut interest rates, with the market awaiting more cuts given its confidence in inflation returning to target levels. Trade tensions between the US and China remain a problem, but the relatively narrow scope of the situation had pushed fears over a full-scale global trade war to the backburner, diminishing the risk premium on the US Dollar. In technical terms, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to a critical resistance level at 1.0500 and may find support at 1.0177 and 1.0100 to determine the next direction. EUR/USD continues to gain as fears of a trade war ease and ECB rate-cut expectations weigh on the US Dollar. Investors await key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which could influence the Fed’s policy stance. Meanwhile, technical resistance at 1.0500 and support at 1.0177 will shape the pair’s near-term direction. • The pair goes higher as the US Dollar weakens on the back of more alleviated trade war concerns and reduced risk premium. • US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI would be out and could impact the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. • Interest rate cuts are expected by the European Central Bank and monetary policy easing is already priced in the markets. • Investors believe that the trade war will not spread across the globe and see fears of an economic slowdown. • President Trump lets loose on the EU: Tariffs are in the cards. Adds to EUR’s unclear direction. • The level remains a strong barrier for EUR/USD, and a breach above can be seen as a further sign of bullish strength. • These levels become significant support downwards, and their breach can be used as a sign of renewed bearish pressure on the pair. It is now a fledging currency as EUR/USD surged above 1.0400 after a weak US Dollar amid slight improvements in the trade war concerns and eventually in wait of further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Investors are keenly awaiting key US economic data, including ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, which may provide direction to future policy decisions by the Federal Reserve. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined as market participants assume that the trade war between the US and China will remain limited in scope, reducing the Greenback’s risk premium. However, concerns persist about potential tariff threats from President Trump on the European Union, which could impact the Euro’s stability in the coming weeks. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the technical front, EUR/USD faces significant resistance at the 1.0500 level, which, if breached, could signal further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, key support levels at 1.0177 and 1.0100 provide downside protection, with a break below these points potentially leading to renewed bearish pressure. The European Central Bank’s continued monetary easing stance has also weighed on the Euro, as traders anticipate further rate cuts to support economic stability. As investors find their way through these macroeconomic and geopolitical changes, EUR/USD continues to trade in a volatile range, waiting for more directional signals from upcoming economic data and policy decisions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD is still in a cautious recovery mode, trading just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0440, which indicates that the trend is still bearish. The pair is facing strong resistance at the psychological level of 1.0500, and a decisive break above this could trigger further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the neutral 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a lack of strong directional bias. On the downside, key support levels are observed at 1.0177 and 1.0100, with a break below these levels potentially leading to increased bearish pressure. EUR/USD remains stuck in a trading range as the market fundamentals continue to be analyzed by traders and wait for the right trigger that will take the currency pair on its next major move. FORECAST If EUR/USD breaks above 1.0500, there is still potential for further gains. A continuation of the trend beyond this point could lead to a bullish surge to the psychological resistance at 1.0600. Positive Eurozone economic data in combination with a softer US Dollar, which is being traded down on expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut rates, may continue fueling buying. Moreover, if risk-on sentiments persist and concerns of trade tensions between US and China keep dwindling, investors may prefer the Euro, hence continuing to

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Extends Above 1.2400 on Tariff Uncertainty and BoE Rate Cut Expectations

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  • February 4, 2025
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GBP/USD stayed above 1.2400, trading at around 1.2430 as market sentiment improved in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s decision to hold back tariffs on Mexico and Canada. However, uncertainty remains since China will have to endure a 10% all-around tariff with definitive trade talks set for within the next 24 hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has stabilized at 108.70, buoyed by the release of positive ISM Manufacturing PMI data. The Pound was under pressure due to expectations of a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates by the BoE to 4.5% on Thursday as inflation indicators slow down. Market volatility still keeps traders wary. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD traders look for the 10% tariff on China, with the potential for volatility depending on the outcome of US-China trade negotiations. • The Bank of England is likely to cut the rates by 25 bps to 4.5%, which will weigh on the Pound’s strength. • The US Dollar Index stabilizes around 108.70, supported by stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which influences the movement of GBP/USD. • Investor sentiment remains fragile as traders monitor geopolitical developments, including Trump’s tariff policies and global risk-on sentiment shifts affecting currency markets. GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2400 as traders closely monitor key developments, including the impact of US tariffs on China and upcoming trade negotiations. The Pound is under pressure as the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% on Thursday, which will be dovish in nature as inflation slows down. The US Dollar Index stabilizes around 108.70, supported by stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data. Market volatility persists as investors assess geopolitical risks, particularly Trump’s shifting tariff policies and global risk sentiment, which could influence the currency pair’s movement in the coming sessions. GBP/USD stays above 1.2400 as traders monitor US-China tariff developments and the Bank of England’s expected rate cut. The US Dollar stabilizes around 108.70, supported by strong economic data, while market volatility remains high amid shifting global risk sentiment. •The pair trades at 1.2430 while supported by improvement in risk sentiments and tariff negotiation. • The 10 percent tariff on China comes into place, and crucial trade talks will be seen over the next 24 hours • The Pound is likely to be weighed as the Bank of England is poised to cut 25 basis points interest rate at 4.5 percent by Thursday • The US dollar index is now trading around 108.70, supported by stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI data. • Trump delayed tariffs for a minimum of 30 days due to border security commitments from both countries. • Uncertainty over trade policies, economic data, and political events keeps investors nervous. • Rising wage growth in the UK might become another factor by moving forward future BoE policy decisions as inflation is slowing. GBP/USD hovers at 1.2430 just above 1.2400, though traders continue to be vigilant about the fast-moving global trade changes and shifts in monetary policies in the world. The market is cautious as the US-China tariff tension is still a concern, although the 10% across-the-board tariff would be implemented, and trade talk between the two nations may play a role in currency movement. Meanwhile, interest rate cuts from the Bank of England are seen to be trimmed by 25 basis points on Thursday to 4.5%, which reflects a dovish tone due to slowing inflation. This may pull down the Pound. GBP/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA US Dollar Index stabilizes at around 108.70 with ISM Manufacturing PMI higher than anticipated, coming at 50.9 for January, while attention to Trump postponing tariffs against Mexico and Canada for 30 days also lowered the immediate impact of trade war. These happenings do not make market sentiment stabilize; geopolitical risks, economic data, and central bank policies keep on bringing in a fluctuation in the value of GBP/USD over the coming sessions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is still above 1.2400 and has shown strength against global uncertainty, with mixed signals from technical indicators. The pair is currently trading near 1.2430, where it is testing the 50-day moving average as a major support level. A sustained move above 1.2450 could push the pair towards the psychological resistance of 1.2500, while a break below 1.2400 may expose the support at 1.2350. The Relative Strength Index is seen hovering near the neutral 50 level, thus showing a lack of strong momentum in either direction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence remains flat and reflects indecision in market sentiment. Price action around these levels will be carefully watched, as further volatility can be expected before the BoE rate decision and US-China trade developments. FORECAST If GBP/USD can overcome the 1.2450 resistance level, which is backed by positive risk appetite and a soft US Dollar, its rallies are likely to continue. In case of the pair’s successful clearance of this point, the next one to be watched at the level of 1.2500 will be a psychological one that will attract higher buying. A bullish breakout above this point may send the currency higher through 1.2550 and 1.2600 within the short term. Positive news from the US-China trade talks or more hawkish-than-expected rate decision by the Bank of England can be helpful for the Pound to go upward. Also, if US data is disappointing and the Federal Reserve hints at its dovish sentiment, then further weakness in US Dollar will aid GBP/USD. Downward, the former remains susceptible at the support region of 1.2400, which now becomes the very next important zone of support lies at 1.2350. A break below this level can push the prices further down, toward 1.2300 and 1.2250, as pressure mounts in the market due to concerns over the UK economy, and the Bank of England considering a rate cut. If it becomes more dovish or talks about more rate cuts in future, the pound may face some more selling pressures. Escalating US-China trade tensions or continued strong US economic data may also see USD regain some strength

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Currencies EUR/USD

EUR/USD Slides Down to Almost 1.0370 Amid Low German Inflation and Trump’s Threat of New Tariffs

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  • January 31, 2025
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EUR/USD has slid to almost 1.0370 as low inflation data in six German states increases the prospects for further ECB easing. ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence that inflation can be controlled, and the possibility of future rate cuts remains open. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations and 25% on Mexico and Canada has made the U.S. Dollar strong, putting additional pressure on EUR/USD to move downwards. The Fed decision to hold interest rates steady and the release of U.S. PCE inflation data will determine market sentiment going forward. Major support lies at 1.0266 and 1.0177 while resistance lies at 1.0630. KEY LOOKOUTS • Soft inflation in six German states raises expectations of further ECB rate cuts, weakening the Euro and pressuring EUR/USD downward. • Donald Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on BRICS and 25% on Mexico and Canada boost USD strength, adding bearish momentum to EUR/USD. • The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates signals a cautious approach, awaiting inflation and labor market changes before considering policy shifts. • The upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation report will guide the next move for the USD, influencing EUR/USD’s direction in the near term. EUR/USD remains under pressure as multiple factors drive market sentiment. The Euro weakened after softer-than-expected inflation data from six German states reinforced expectations of further ECB rate cuts. Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats against BRICS, Mexico, and Canada have strengthened the U.S. The Euro is not so attractive compared to the Dollar. The decision by the Federal Reserve to hold the interest rate steady, expecting stronger inflation signals or labor market weakness, continues to support the Greenback. Investors are watching closely for U.S. core PCE inflation data, which will determine the next major move for EUR/USD. EUR/USD continues to slide as weak German inflation data further fuels ECB rate cut expectations while Trump’s tariff threats boost the U.S. Dollar’s strength. The cautious Fed and next week’s U.S. core PCE inflation data will play a key role in determining where the pair will go next. • The pair has slid down to near 1.0370 as weak German inflation data fuels expectations of ECB rate cuts. • Softer-than-expected CPI data from six German states signals easing price pressures, supporting ECB’s dovish stance. • Donald Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on BRICS and 25% on Mexico and Canada strengthen the U.S. Dollar, adding downward pressure on EUR/USD. • Christine Lagarde emphasized a cautious approach, keeping the door open for further rate cuts as inflation nears the 2% target. • The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged, awaiting stronger inflation signals or changes in the labor market before adjusting. • The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong at around 108.20, which is limiting EUR/USD’s attempts to recover. • Traders are waiting for the U.S. core PCE inflation report, which may fuel further movements in EUR/USD. EUR/USD remains under selling pressure, dropping to around 1.0370 as lower-than-forecast inflation in six German states strengthens the case for more ECB rate cuts. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s latest statements indicate that she is optimistic about taming inflation but still leaves room for future easing. With inflation in the Eurozone easing, the central bank could become more accommodative in the near term. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has taken the threats against BRICS countries to placing 100% tariffs on them and 25% on Mexico and Canada, which makes the U.S. Dollar a better safe-haven asset in a time of increased world uncertainty. EUR/USD Daily Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The new decisions taken from the Federal Reserve after the interest rates remained unchanged help boost the U.S. Dollar’s strength would continue as the central bank remains in a wait-and-watch mode until they see clear signs of inflation or labor market shifts. Market participants are awaiting the next U.S. core PCE inflation data, which may be crucial to determine EUR/USD’s future moves. Stronger-than-expected inflation reading may strengthen the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, pushing the U.S. dollar higher and keeping pressures on the Euro. On the technical front, EUR/USD faces key support at 1.0266 and resistance at 1.0630, which will determine a volatile trading session in the next hours of the session. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD has maintained bearish pressure and remains below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0390, though just barely above the 50-day EMA at 1.0449. This pair fails to maintain a recovery; selling interest continues, and supports are found on the downside at 1.0266 – the low for January 20 – and at 1.0177 – the low for January 13. The upside is capped by the high on December 6 at 1.0630. The RSI is under 60 in the 14-day measure; the recovery attempt was weak. Failure by EUR/USD to reiterate the uptrend above 1.0449 will increase prospects for a fall towards 1.0200. FORECAST Upward EUR/USD could be regained if future releases of the country’s HICP in Eurozone and the U.S core PCE inflation are beyond anticipations. Improved inflation data may ease concerns on the possibility of aggressive cuts on ECB’s rate, thereby, increasing demand for the Euro currency. The second aspect is if the Federal Reserve gives signals about being concerned about slowing economic growth or a softening labor market. This might weaken the U.S. Dollar and support a rebound in EUR/USD. Technically, if the price breaks above the 50-day EMA at 1.0449, renewed bullish momentum is expected. Next resistance levels would be around 1.0500 and 1.0630. Continued buying above these levels would drive the pair towards 1.0700 in the short term. Weak German inflation data, along with dovish tone of ECB, are on the other side weighing sentiment, so EUR/USD is vulnerable. The U.S. Dollar might take more strength, if the inflation data of U.S. also comes out to be strong enough, strengthening Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rate stance. A failure to stay above the 1.0370 level may open the door for further losses, with key support at 1.0266, then the January 13

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Forex Indicator

Xmaster-Oscillator Indicator

The Xmaster-Oscillator is a custom technical analysis indicator commonly used in MetaTrader 4 (MT4) to help traders identify market trends and potential entry/exit points. This oscillator is often favored for its ability to detect shifts in momentum, providing signals for both trend-following and counter-trend trading strategies. Key Features of the Xmaster-Oscillator Indicator: How to Use the Xmaster-Oscillator Indicator: . . How to Install the Xmaster-Oscillator Indicator in MT4: Conclusion: The Xmaster-Oscillator is a powerful tool for traders who want to identify momentum shifts, trend reversals, and optimal entry/exit points. By interpreting the oscillator’s movements relative to the zero line, price action, and any divergences, you can gain valuable insights into market behavior. Whether you’re a trend follower or counter-trend trader, this oscillator can be a useful addition to your trading strategy, especially when combined with other indicators or chart patterns.

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Currencies NZD/USD

NZDUSD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Stagnating Below 0.5900

NZDUSD Price Forecast: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Stagnating Below 0.5900 The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday faces mounting downward pressure as it breaks its three-day winning streak and traded to around the 0.5890 level in the European session Wednesday. The NZD/USD pair sits in a descending channel, with further bearish bias looking possible unless strong reversal is seen. Pair shows weakness, especially below key 0.5900, and short-term momentum remains bearish. Bearish Momentum: NZD/USD in a Descending Channel From the daily NZD/USD chart, a bearish outlook seems to be of concern for the bullish traders because the chart seems to be moving in a downward trend within a well-defined descending channel. A bearish sentiment usually prevails when the market is entering a kind of downtrend, as the pair cannot keep its course upwards but falls backwards. In the case of NZD/USD, this kind of pattern grows clearer because, day by day, it remains trading below both nine-day and 14-day EMAs. Currently, the nine-day EMA sits below the 14-day EMA, which is an important short-term indicator of price momentum and displays persistent weakness in the market. This means that bearish control is most likely to continue until a strong catalyst forces a directional shift in sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) – the measure of the speed and change of price movements – is also sitting below the neutral 50 level. When the RSI is constantly under 50, it usually means the market tends to have a bearish look, which commensurate with current trends for NZD/USD. Resistance Levels: Immediate Hurdles for NZD/USD Resistance levels for NZD/USD, however, are found in the immediate upside. The first level of key resistance is currently sitting at 0.5907, at the nine-day EMA. This represents the zone that sellers will be keenly watching for as a potential turning point. A break back above the nine-day EMA would be a marked shift in sentiment, though as of now, the pair sits below this resistance, which continues to support the bearish view. Above the nine-day EMA, the next level of resistance is at the 14-day EMA, which stands at 0.5926. This is a more important resistance level since it coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel. From the breakout above the 14-day EMA and the upper boundary of the channel, the bearish momentum could be weakening, allowing the pair to further advance toward higher levels, even reaching the psychological level 0.6000. Given the current bearish momentum, however, such a breakout seems less likely over the short run unless something fundamental in market sentiment were to shift. NZD/USD Daily Price Chart Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Miles Levels of Support : 0.5850 and the Lower Boundary of the Channel On the downside, the NZD/USD pair is facing potential support around the 0.5850 level, which represents a psychological level for the pair. If the price continues to slide lower, this support zone will be critical in determining whether the bearish trend will extend further. If the price breaks below 0.5850, the next level of support is likely to be the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is found around the 0.5930 region. The zone is of high importance situated around 0.5850 as it is a throwback support zone – a term used to describe a price zone where the market had previously shown support or resistance. If the NZD/USD pair can remain above the 0.5850 zone, it might be a good place for a reversal or at least a consolidation. On the other hand, if the price breaks decisively below that level, it would endorse the bearish view and push the pair down even further. Downside Risk: Testing the Two-Year Low at 0.5772 If the NZD/USD fails to maintain strength above 0.5850 and breaks below the lower boundary of its falling channel, critical support will be found at the two-year low at 0.5772. It reached the level last in November 2023, and this will be a signal for another decline in the value of the Kiwi versus the US Dollar, should the pair continue to the mentioned level. Such a move towards this level would squeeze the bearish sentiment and thus attract more selling pressure with further declines. Traders will be keenly watching how the price reacts to the lower boundary of the channel and the 0.5850 support. A break below these levels could potentially accelerate the decline and bring the pair closer to the two-year low of 0.5772. On the other hand, a failure to break below these levels might indicate a temporary consolidation, but the overall market sentiment would remain cautious and bearish. What Could Reverse the Bearish Trend? While the current outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, it’s essential to consider potential catalysts that could reverse the trend. For instance, if there were a significant shift in market sentiment towards riskier assets or a sudden change in global economic conditions, it could provide support for the New Zealand Dollar. Positive economic data from New Zealand or a change in the US Federal Reserve’s policy stance could also impact the NZD/USD pair. Furthermore, if the pair breaks above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, it could signal that the bears are losing control, allowing for a move higher. This scenario however, looks unlikely to come to pass without a significant fundamental trigger, as the current market sentiment is on further weakness for the Kiwi. What to Expect for NZD/USD Short-term view: The outlook for NZD/USD remains bearish, but the price was unable to stay above the key level of 0.5900. The pattern of the descending channel suggests further downside, with the support areas around 0.5850 and the lower boundary of the channel being areas to watch. A break below these levels would further solidify a strong bearish case, with a view toward reaching the two-year low of 0.5772. On the positive side, two important barriers that one needs to watch are resistance levels at the nine-day EMA (0.5907) and at the

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