Forex Trading Tools and Services

Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Appreciates Against US Dollar As US Job Market Slows and Fed Cuts Are Speculated

  • BY
  • October 2, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Pound Sterling (GBP) advanced versus the US Dollar (USD), rising to around 1.3500, as a slowing US job market and the continued government shutdown dragged on the Greenback. The US ADP Employment Change report showed a decrease in private sector employment for September, supporting calls for a possible Federal Reserve rate reduction later this month. Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, on the other hand, warned of the dangers of having too tight a monetary policy, indicating a future move towards easing in Britain. With the GBP/USD pair above the 20-day EMA, the Pound is on an upward short-term path, albeit with primary resistance and support levels that will guide its short-term direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders will watch for impending US employment statistics closely, as further deceleration may boost anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions. • Extended shutdown threatens en masse layoffs, further pressuring the US Dollar and affecting GBP/USD price action. • BoE talk of possible easing can affect Pound strength, particularly if inflation below target. • Monitor key support at 1.3140 and resistance at 1.3726, as well as the 20-day EMA and RSI readings, to determine near-term trend reversals. The Pound Sterling continued its rally against the US Dollar, almost reaching 1.3500, due to a slowdown in the US job market and continued government shutdown pressuring the Greenback. Soft US jobs data has heightened hopes of a cut in Federal Reserve interest rates, while Bank of England policymakers, such as Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, have signaled that monetary policy would need to be relaxed if prices decline below target. Technicals indicate the GBP/USD pair is trading over its 20-day EMA, indicating an upward short-term trend, but key levels of support and resistance will dictate the pair’s short-term direction. Pound Sterling rose closer to 1.3500 versus the US Dollar, amidst indications of US job market slowdown and government shutdown. Speculation regarding Fed rate reductions and possible BoE loosening remain behind Pound strength. 1.3485 (20-day EMA) and 1.3726 (resistance) technical levels will dictate near-term direction. • Pound Sterling (GBP) appreciates close to 1.3500 versus the US Dollar (USD) as concerns of US economic slowdown arise. • US ADP Employment Change report reported a decline of 32K jobs in September, lower than expected. • Soft US job data stokes rumors of a likely Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. • Continuing US government shutdown increases threats of widespread layoffs, putting further pressure on the USD. • Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden indicates that tightening monetary policy has the potential to drop inflation below target. • GBP/USD is higher above the 20-day EMA (~1.3485), which supports a bullish short-term trend. • Most significant technical levels to monitor: support at 1.3140 and resistance at 1.3726. The Pound Sterling has gained against the US Dollar, touching close to 1.3500, as the evidence of a weakening US job market and the current government shutdown has exerted downward pressure on the Greenback. Soft employment figures, a decrease in private sector jobs in September, has fueled hopes of possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. Market players are watching US labor market conditions closely, and continued weakening could have implications on world currency markets and sentiment. GBP/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, in the UK, the Bank of England signaled restraint in monetary policy. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden pointed to the dangers of maintaining policy too vigorously, suggesting that inflation would fall below target at 2% if restrictive policies persist. These indications of potential future easing, together with ongoing uncertainty regarding US economic conditions, have underpinned the Pound’s strength and brought greater market focus to policy trends on both sides of the Atlantic. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying indications of a short-term bull trend, trading above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of approximately 1.3485. 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is presently at about 50.61, reflecting neutral momentum but leaving scope for further improvement if it crosses above 60. Important support is placed at the August 1 low level of 1.3140, while resistance is located at the September 17 high level of 1.3726. A continued breakout above the 20-day EMA would strengthen positive momentum, while a failure to hold above this level might cause sideways or corrective action. FORECAST The Pound Sterling may maintain its upward trend against the US Dollar in the short term if US economic figures are not strong and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations increase. The GBP could be supported by optimism for Bank of England easing too, allowing the pair to test resistance around 1.3726. A solid breakout above this level could open the way for further appreciation and consolidate the bullish picture. On the negative side, the GBP/USD currency pair may come under pressure if US labor market statistics surprise to the upside or if the US government shutdown is contained quickly, cutting Greenback weakness. Importantly, key support at 1.3140 will be significant to monitor, as a fall below here may set the wheels in motion for a more drawn-out correction phase, restricting near-term pound gains.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Increases on Fed Rate Cut Speculation in Face of US Shutdown Fears and BoE Steadfastness

  • BY
  • September 29, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD currency pair crept higher on Monday, fluctuating at 1.3430, as increasing anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions put pressure on the US Dollar. Although the Bank of England is likely to maintain rates unchanged, fears of a US government shutdown along with hawkish statements by Fed policymakers introduced volatility into the market. Upbeat US economic news, such as a 4% increase in Pending Home Sales, was countered by the threat of a BLS data blackout. The Pound also received support from central bank divergence and political attention on the UK Labor Party conference, leaving investors optimistically cautious. KEY LOOKOUTS • Up to two Federal Reserve rate cuts expected by the market continue to put pressure on the US Dollar, impacting GBP/USD levels. • Shutdown risks potentially could stifle releases of economic data, such as BLS reports, which add market uncertainty. • The Bank of England will keep its rates unchanged, and Deputy Governor Ramsden is sure inflation will come back in line. • GBP/USD is held back by resistance at 1.3466, and a fall below 1.3400 would risk further weakness to 1.3324. GBP/USD pair rose to 1.3430 on Monday, pushed by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions and a soft US Dollar as fears of the possible government shutdown rose. Encouraging US data, including a 4% increase in Pending Home Sales, was weighed down by concerns of a BLS data blackout if the shutdown takes place. At the same time, the Bank of England is likely to leave rates unchanged underpinned by Deputy Governor Ramsden’s optimism for bringing inflation back in line with target. Central bank convergence, along with political focus on the UK Labor Party conference, continues to underpin Sterling, although technical resistance around 1.3466 can cap gains. GBP/USD rose to 1.3430 as expectations of Fed rate cuts pressured the US Dollar, with the BoE likely to maintain rates unchanged. Threats of US government shutdown and constructive Pending Home Sales data provide conflicting signals for the pair, keeping investors on their toes. • GBP/USD at 1.3430, gaining 0.24% on a soft US Dollar. • Market anticipates up to two Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting Sterling. • Bank of England to leave rates unmoved, indicating policy continuity. • BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden still optimistic inflation will get back to target. • US Pending Home Sales have increased 4% in August, beating expectations. • Possible US government shutdown could suspend BLS economic release. • Technical resistance around 1.3466 could cap further GBP/USD appreciation, support at 1.3400 and 1.3324. The GBP/USD currency pair picked up pace on Monday as market sentiment was in Sterling’s favor due to expectations of possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Though the Bank of England is likely to continue its present policy, the hawkish remarks of Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden added to optimism that inflation in the UK would return to target even as disinflation remained stalled. Meanwhile, the US Dollar was pressured as the threat of a government shutdown loomed, which might interfere with the release of major economic indicators, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. GBP/USD Daily Chart Price SOURCE: TradingView Investor attention was also given to the political momentum in the UK, with the Labor Party conference in Liverpool coming into focus. Improved US economic indicators, like a 4% increase in Pending Home Sales for August, provided some respite to the Dollar but were overshadowed by uncertainty regarding fiscal and policy directions. Overall, the market is still balancing central bank divergence and geopolitical events, shaping the outlook for the GBP/USD pair in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD registered consecutive bullish sessions but still trades below the significant resistance range of 1.3480–1.3500, reflecting minimal upswings. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers continue to have some dominance, with the pair treading immediate resistance at 1.3466, the high of September 25. On the negative side, levels of support to monitor are 1.3400, then the September 25 swing low at 1.3324, which may function as a pivotal level if bearish pressure accelerates. Generally speaking, although short-term bullish momentum is apparent, the pair’s ability to break higher is dependent on overcoming these vital technical points. FORECAST Should GBP/USD break the near-term resistance at 1.3466, the pair would test the subsequent key levels around 1.3480–1.3500. Market expectations of Fed rate cuts, supplemented by BoE policy stability, are likely to give further boost to Sterling, possibly triggering renewed buying interest in the near future. Favorable impulses from UK political events, including the Labor Party conference, can also give a boost to the pair. On the negative side, a breakdown of gains over 1.3466 may have GBP/USD decline back to the 1.3400 support. A break below this region would turn the September 25 swing low at 1.3324, indicating more intense selling pressure. Increased risks of a US government shutdown and mixed US economic indicators have the potential to weigh on the Dollar, introducing added volatility and leaving the pair open to downward corrections.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Drops to Three-Week Low as Positive US Data Bolsters the Dollar Ahead of Major Inflation Report

  • BY
  • September 25, 2025
  • 0 Comments

British Pound (GBP) dropped to its three-week low versus the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with GBP/USD going below the 1.3400 level to trade at around 1.3366, as favorable US economic data fueled demand for the Greenback. Sturdy releases, such as a vicious quarter-upward revision of Q2 GDP to 3.8%, beneath-expectation initial jobless claims of 218K, and an August Durable Goods Orders 2.9% leap, supported faith in the US economy. Although core PCE inflation in Q2 modestly increased to 2.6%, market participants already await Friday’s report on August core PCE, which is set to give essential information regarding the next steps of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. In the meantime, Fed officials are implying a “slightly restrictive” policy, weighing inflation worries against a primarily healthy labor market. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are keeping an eye on the August core PCE reading, which may shape the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate moves. • Solid GDP growth, high durable goods orders, and low unemployment claims underpin the US Dollar and may continue to hold GBP/USD in check. • Fed officials’ comments indicate a “slightly restrictive” monetary policy, emphasizing balancing inflation with labor market stability. • GBP/USD is around the 1.3360–1.3400 level, and any move below this level can generate further bearish momentum. GBP/USD dipped to a three-week low as solid US economic data supported the US Dollar, with the pair falling below 1.3400 to quote around 1.3366. Strong US signals in the form of a revised Q2 growth of 3.8% GDP, below-forecast jobless claims, and a snapback in durable goods orders supported market optimism in the US economy. Traders are now focusing their attention on Friday’s core PCE inflation report, which is expected to be monitored closely for Fed hints on its next move in monetary policy, as Fed officials continue to stress a slightly restrictive tack under conditions of balanced labor market conditions. GBP/USD dropped to a three-week low around 1.3366 following robust US economic data that supported the Dollar. Investors now wait for Friday’s core PCE inflation reading to get cues on the Fed’s next step. • GBP/USD dipped below the 1.3400 level, hitting a three-week low around 1.3366. • Robust US GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 3.8% in Q2. • Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 218K, better than market forecasts. • Durable Goods Orders increased 2.9% in August, indicating robust US economic activity. • Core PCE prices for Q2 rose modestly to 2.6%, narrowly beating expectations. • Fed officials keep a “slightly restrictive” bias and watch inflation and labor market risks closely. • Attention in the markets turns to Friday’s core PCE inflation report, which may have implications for future Fed policy. The British Pound lost value against the US Dollar on Thursday as solid US economic data fueled widespread Greenback demand. Critical releases indicated a strong US economy, with Q2 GDP growth revised to 3.8%, initial jobless claims dipping to 218K, and durable goods orders rising 2.9% in August. The data underscored ongoing economic strength and bolstered confidence in the resilience of the US Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Market eyes are finally on Friday’s central PCE inflation report, which will give some additional insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, Fed officials have reaffirmed the need to keep a slightly restrictive policy stance in order to weigh inflation concerns against the general stability of the labor market. Market observers are following closely as they try to discern the possible path for US interest rates and the general level of economic conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD broke below the important psychological support level of 1.3400, showing bearish short-term momentum. The pair is currently testing levels around 1.3360, with current resistance at 1.3420–1.3450. Moving averages are pointing towards a downtrend, while momentum indicators are hinting at continued selling pressure, which means that further falls are possible if the pair cannot regain important support levels. FORECAST GBP/USD can remain under pressure to the downside as solid US economic figures validate the Dollar. If the pair drops below the existing support level around 1.3360, it can test new lows at levels of 1.3300–1.3320. Market participants will likely be cautious ahead of the core PCE inflation print this Friday that can further increase volatility. A correction is still possible if the Dollar loses steam or UK economic data positively improves. Under those circumstances, GBP/USD may try to re-take the 1.3400–1.3450 area, with resistance around 1.3480–1.3500 being an important hurdle to further gains. Market sentiment will be heavily reliant on future data and Fed cues, leaving the pair vulnerable to economic news both on the Atlantic side and in the US.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Appreciates on Fed-BoE Policy Divergence That Bolsters Sterling Forecast

  • BY
  • September 15, 2025
  • 0 Comments

The Pound Sterling gained against the US Dollar on Monday as policy divergence among the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England enhanced demand for the currency. GBP/USD recovered from 1.3548 to trade at approximately 1.3586, buoyed by hopes that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, while the BoE is expected to maintain rates given recurring UK inflation at around 4%. With investors factoring in a falling interest rate gap, future UK jobs and inflation releases, as well as central bank meetings, are expected to determine the direction of the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets widely expect a 25 bps rate cut, with a 94% probability priced in, which could weigh on the Dollar. • The Bank of England is likely to keep rates unchanged due to inflation holding near 4%, supporting Sterling. • Employment figures on Tuesday and CPI data on Wednesday will be critical in shaping BoE policy expectations. • A close above 1.3600 for an extended period could leave the way open to 1.3681 and 1.3700, but inability to hold could push GBP/USD towards 1.3550 or the 20-day SMA of 1.3497. GBP/USD picked up pace early in the week as differing policy directions between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England underpinned the recovery in Sterling. With markets putting just a 94% chance on a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, the Dollar lost strength, as the BoE is likely to remain unchanged with stubbornly elevated inflation close to 4%. This narrowing interest rate spread has propelled the pair higher above 1.3580, with market players watchfully monitoring forthcoming UK employment and CPI releases, as well as central bank gatherings, to see if Sterling can continue its rally towards key resistance points. GBP/USD rose as policy divergence in favor of Sterling between the BoE and Fed, with the pair reversing higher above 1.3580. Hopes of a Fed rate cut, along with the BoE keeping rates unchanged, support the Pound in advance of major UK data releases. • GBP/USD reversed from 1.3548 to trade at 1.3586, demonstrating early-week resilience. • The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps, with a 94% chance priced in. • BoE will probably stick to its existing rate stance from UK’s consistent inflation level around 4%. • Divergent monetary policies are decreasing the interest rate spread, favoring Sterling. • Important UK economic releases this week are employment data on Tuesday followed by CPI on Wednesday. • Above 1.3600 close will open the way for resistance zones around 1.3681 and 1.3700. • Conversely, not holding 1.3600 could take GBP/USD down to 1.3550 or the 20-day SMA of 1.3497. The Pound Sterling rose against the US Dollar as market players factored in different monetary policy trajectories between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Anticipation of a near-term Fed rate reduction has boosted the demand for British Pound, while the BoE’s probable decision to hold interest rates in the face of sustained inflation at around 4% favors Sterling’s demand. Investors are keenly observing future UK economic releases, including jobs and Consumer Price Index data, to gauge the central bank’s next policy direction. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView This policy disparity underscores the larger economic context, as the US prepares to loosen monetary conditions while the UK remains more wary of inflation. Market sentiment anticipates the Pound’s strength, as traders account for both central bank action and continued economic events. As a result, GBP/USD remains at center stage for investors looking for opportunities through changing global expectations of interest rates. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD continues to be in a bullish bias after recovering from recent lows, and 1.3600 has become an important level to hold for the pair to maintain upward momentum. A close above 1.3600 on the daily time frame could set the stage for resistance levels at 1.3681 and 1.3700, and a breakdown below this level could open up support areas around 1.3550 and the 20-day SMA at 1.3497. Market players are keeping close eyes on these levels to determine possible continuation or retracement of the pair’s short-term trend. FORECAST If GBP/USD continues its uptrend above 1.3600, the pair might aim for significant resistance at 1.3681 and 1.3700, with a possible extension to the July 1 high of 1.3788. Ongoing Sterling strength would probably be favored by the BoE leaving rates unchanged while the Fed takes steps towards easing, closing the interest rate differential in favor of the Pound. Favorable UK economic news will also add to bullish sentiment. To the downside, inability to maintain a breakout above 1.3600 can have GBP/USD testing support at 1.3550. Further decline could send the pair down towards the 20-day SMA at 1.3497, especially if market anticipation reverses amid surprise economic indicators or adjustment of Fed and BoE signals. Traders need to watch these levels for possible retracement or short-term corrections.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Comes Under Pressure as UK’s GDP Slows and Factory Production Falls

  • BY
  • September 12, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Pound Sterling fell against the major currencies on Friday after the release of the slowdown in UK GDP and low factory numbers for July. Economic growth was flat after a 0.4% increase in June, while manufacturing and industrial production fell 1.3% and 0.9% month-on-month, respectively. The soft economic indicators have raised hopes of additional Bank of England rate reductions later this year, with markets poised to watch closely for the forthcoming monetary policy decision. GBP/USD meanwhile reversed around 1.3550 as dovish Fed talk circulated, with US weekly jobless claims up and inflation figures stable, with investors on their guard and the pound trading sideways. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Market players will keep a close eye on the BoE’s next interest rate decision, which is likely to hold rates steady at 4%, for clues on possible future reductions. •   The three-month job market data up to July, to be released on Tuesday, may shape Sterling’s short-term outlook. •  Major support is around 1.3140, while resistance remains around 1.3800, with the pair trading within an ascending triangle pattern. •  Weekly unemployment claims, revised Nonfarm Payrolls, and Consumer Sentiment statistics may affect GBP/USD via speculation of Fed rate changes. Pound Sterling experienced selling pressure following the stagnation of UK GDP growth in July, and the decline in manufacturing and industrial production strengthened fears about the nation’s economic performance. Weak data has fueled expectations of potential future Bank of England rate cuts, and traders also monitor coming employment data for more guidance. Against the US Dollar, GBP/USD retraced close to 1.3550, trading in a sideways trend within an ascending triangle formation, as investors balance dovish Fed hopes in light of increasing US jobless claims and stable inflation. Overall, market sentiment is conservative, as both UK and US economic directions are uncertain. Pound Sterling fell after UK GDP flat-lined and factory production declined, increasing expectations for possible BoE rate cuts. GBP/USD retraced close to 1.3550 and traded sideways amidst dovish Fed rumors and confused US economic data. • UK GDP growth was flat in July following a 0.4% increase in June. • Manufacturing output fell 1.3% MoM, with industrial production dropping 0.9% MoM. • Poor UK economic data has fueled market rumors of additional Bank of England rate cuts. • GBP/USD retreated close to 1.3550 during European trading after the GDP release. • The currency pair trades within an ascending triangle and support is around 1.3140, while resistance is close to 1.3800. • US weekly jobless claims increased to 263K, the highest in almost four years, and stoked dovish Fed hopes. • Investors are watching ahead UK labor market data and US consumer sentiment for new market signals. The Pound Sterling came under sell pressure after the UK economy stagnated in July. GDP growth was stagnant after a weak 0.4% increase in June, while industrial and manufacturing production both fell, indicating weakening economic activity. These weak numbers have increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will discuss further interest rate reductions later in the year to cushion growth. Market players are also closely monitoring future employment releases for further information on the strength of the UK job market. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView At the same time, global events are driving the performance of the pound relative to the US Dollar. Higher US weekly jobless claims and changes to Nonfarm Payrolls have strengthened expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve, while inflationary pressures remain influencing consumer prices. Further US economic releases, such as consumer sentiment, will be watched by investors and can influence expectations around monetary policy. In general, uncertainty in the UK and US economies is holding traders back and the Pound down. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is currently trading in an ascending triangle pattern, which indicates investor indecision. The horizontal resistance point is around 1.3585, while the rising support line comes from the August 1 low of around 1.3140. The pair is oscillating around its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3487, suggesting a lateral trend. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still oscillating between 40 and 60, supporting the absence of clear momentum in either direction. Critical levels to monitor are support at 1.3140 and resistance around 1.3800, which will determine the next major move. FORECAST In the shorter term, GBP/USD is likely to continue in a trading range as the market digests the newest UK GDP and manufacturing data. If support around 1.3140 can hold up, then the pound can stabilize and slowly try to probe resistance at 1.3585. Any upside surprises in future UK employment reports or indications of easing US economic momentum would help the pair move higher. To the negative, additional economic softness in the UK, e.g., weak job data or ongoing declines in industrial production, might place further pressure on the Pound. Or an unexpectedly stronger US economic report or Federal Reserve hawkish comments might weaken GBP/USD, potentially testing the August 1 low around 1.3140. The important triggers should be watched closely by traders to determine the next direction.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Above 1.3450 amid US PCE Inflation Figures Meeting Forecasts

  • BY
  • August 29, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD is ranging above 1.3450 following a three-day winning streak being snapped, as the US Dollar gained strength on the back of July’s PCE inflation report. Core PCE increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, its best since February, while headline PCE increased 0.2% monthly, leaving the yearly rate unchanged at 2.6%. More-than-expected individual spending and consistent income expansion showcased robust consumer demand, backing the Greenback. In spite of Sterling pulling back from multi-session highs, the pair still stays firm above 1.3450, as traders find the inflation outcomes to be mostly priced in. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.3450 despite ending a three-day winning run as the US Dollar picks up momentum. • US Core PCE inflation increases to 2.9% YoY, the highest since Feb, while headline PCE remains unchanged at 2.6%. • Personal expenditure increases by 0.5% in July, indicating strong consumer demand amidst weaker labor market conditions. • Levels of support lie at 1.3400 and 100-day EMA at 1.3368; levels of resistance are at 1.3530 and 1.3594. GBP/USD remains flat at 1.3450 on Friday after ending a three-day winning spree, as the US Dollar firmed up after July’s PCE inflation report came out. The statistics revealed core PCE rising to 2.9% compared to last year, its best since February, while headline PCE remained steady at 2.6%. Improved personal spending and personal income growth highlighted a buoyant consumer demand, providing additional support to the Greenback. While Sterling has retreated from recent highs, the pair’s continued trade above 1.3450 implies that much of inflation result was already priced in, leaving price action relatively subdued. GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3450 following US PCE inflation data generally in line with forecasts. The Dollar was supported by firmer personal spending, while Sterling remained firm, implying limited market response to the report. • GBP/USD breaks three-day success streak but remains strong over 1.3450. • US Core PCE inflation increased 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY, the highest since February. • Headline PCE was up 0.2% MoM, maintaining the annual rate at 2.6%. • Personal spending increased 0.5% in July, beating the forecasted 0.3%. • Personal income increased 0.4% MoM, demonstrating consistent consumer strength. • The US Dollar Index rose back around 98.00, supporting the Greenback’s bullishness. • Technicals indicate support at 1.3400 and resistance at 1.3530 and 1.3594. The British Pound is ranging above 1.3450 after shedding some speed against the US Dollar after the release of US PCE inflation figures. The report revealed that core inflation reached 2.9% year-over-year in July, its peak since February, while headline PCE remained unchanged at 2.6%. These data were mostly in line with forecasts, tempering any dramatic market reaction but solidifying the perception that inflation is sticky. Concurrently, consumer spending increased 0.5% and incomes increased by 0.4%, demonstrating US household resilience in spite of a softening labor market. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Stronger consumer data supports the US economy’s continuation of stability and lent support to the US Dollar that henceforth dragged Sterling’s recent momentum. Though the British Pound has retreated from recent highs, that it has held firm is a testament to the truth that most of the inflation figures were already factored into markets. Generally, the lackluster reaction is a signal that investors are now looking to future US employment figures as well as central bank policy cues for clearer guidance. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is being supported around the 1.3450 level, with firmer downside support at 1.3400 and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3368. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.3530, followed by the August 14 high at 1.3594. A clear break above these levels would leave the way open for another bout of bullish pressure, whereas inability to hold 1.3400 might cause deeper corrective pressure towards lower support levels. FORECAST If GBP/USD is able to stay above 1.3450 support and continues to gain traction, the pair may test the 1.3530 resistance area again. Breaking above this level successfully might lead the way towards 1.3594, August mid-month high, which indicates more bullish potential. Better risk appetite or weaker US data in subsequent sessions might give Sterling more strength against the Dollar. Conversely, if bears strengthen and push GBP/USD below 1.3450, the subsequent major support is at 1.3400, then the 100-day EMA around 1.3368. A move below these would mark bearish influence and could leave the pair vulnerable to further corrective activities. Better US Dollar demand on the back of economic robustness or hawkish Fed sentiment could continue to keep Sterling pressured in the near term.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Drops as Fed Governor Cook Hints at Fraud Charges and UK Inflation Picks Up

  • BY
  • August 20, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD dropped on Wednesday as political theatre in the U.S. and higher-than-anticipated inflation data in the UK dented sentiment. Sterling lost ground even though UK CPI gained 3.8% YoY and Services CPI touched 5%, which reduced hopes for additional Bank of England rate cuts in the remainder of the year. Markets were shaken when reports broke out that Fed Governor Lisa Cook had falsified mortgage papers, and reports indicated that former President Trump is contemplating sacking her. The volatility of Fed policy, together with waning risk appetite, pulled GBP/USD below 1.3470 in the North American session. KEY LOOKOUTS • Accusations of U.S. mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook create uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy and shake market confidence. • CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY, with Services CPI at 5%, reducing expectations for further BoE rate cuts in 2025. • The pair slipped below 1.3470, with downside risks toward 1.3400 if sellers extend momentum. • Traders eye Fed meeting minutes, U.S. jobs data, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for fresh direction. GBP/USD slipped on Wednesday as traders weighed rising UK inflation against political turbulence in the U.S. Federal Reserve. The British pound first tested 1.3500 as warmer UK CPI data reported inflation at 3.8% YoY and Services CPI at 5%, reducing the expectations for additional Bank of England rate cuts this year. Risk sentiment turned sour later, though, following reports that Fed Governor Lisa Cook faked mortgage documents, with reports indicating former President Trump is mulling having her removed. The uncertainty regarding Fed policy direction and the consequent flight to safety drove GBP/USD as low as 1.3469 in the North American session. GBP/USD dipped below 1.3470 after UK inflation jumped but Fed drama undermined market sentiment. Charges against Fed Governor Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud and scaled-down BoE rate cut expectations contributed to volatility. Traders now look for direction from Fed minutes, employment data, and Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. • GBP/USD dropped 0.15% to 1.3469 in the North American session. • UK CPI increased 3.8% YoY in July, Services CPI reaching 5%. • More inflationary heat reduced BoE rate cut probability in December from 50% to 42%. • Fed Governor Lisa Cook is accused of mortgage fraud, spooking markets. • Reports indicate former President Trump is deliberating on dismissing Cook. • Risk-off sentiment pressured Sterling despite robust UK data. • Traders await Fed minutes, U.S. employment data, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for new guidance. GBP/USD came under selling pressure on Wednesday as political instability in the U.S. recaptured headlines after the release of stronger-than-anticipated inflation data from the UK. There were accusations leveled against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who stood accused of forging mortgage documents to obtain preferential loan conditions. The controversy escalated after reports suggested former President Trump is considering firing Cook, raising questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence and stability. This political drama weighed on market sentiment, driving investors toward safer assets and impacting currency flows between the Pound and the Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the UK, hotter-than-anticipated inflation numbers were reported, with year-on-year Consumer Price Index increasing 3.8% and Services CPI hitting 5%. The more robust inflation reading lowered market expectations for additional Bank of England rate cuts over 2025, as policymakers might be compelled to take a more conservative approach. Even with supportive evidence for Sterling, investor interest was still focused on U.S. political events, which illustrates the way that international events can eclipse domestic economic performance in dictating market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD’s recent move higher towards 1.3500 was fleeting, with sellers reasserting themselves after the pair broke above the 50-day SMA at 1.3495 before pulling back. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still in positive territory but is flattening, which indicates diminishing bullish momentum. A dip below 1.3450 may open the way for additional losses to the 20-day SMA at 1.3409 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3403. To the upside, continued strength above 1.3500 would enable purchasers to test the August 14 high at 1.3594, then the psychological 1.3600 barrier. FORECAST If GBP/USD is able to retake the 1.3500 resistance hurdle, buying pressure might return, propelling the pair towards the August 14 high of 1.3594. A convincing break above that level might unlock the psychological 1.3600 level, where greater resistance might be found. Encouraging U.S. data surprises or reduction in political pressures on the Federal Reserve might also increase investor optimism, supporting Sterling’s rally against the Dollar. Conversely, prolonged weakness below 1.3450 would be bearish and open up the pair for further losses. The sellers may aim the 20-day SMA of 1.3409, followed by the 100-day SMA of 1.3403, in case the downside momentum continues. Increased uncertainty regarding Fed Governor Cook’s future and overall risk-off mood may continue to weigh on GBP/USD, capping Sterling’s potential to gain from solid UK inflation data.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Gains as US CPI Data Sustains September Gilt Cut Expectations

  • BY
  • August 12, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD rose on Tuesday, trading at 1.3485, as weaker US Dollar sentiment and positive UK labor market data underpinned the pair. The recent US CPI report revealed headline inflation remained at 2.7% YoY in July, and core CPI accelerated to 3.1%, leading markets to increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 94% as per the CME FedWatch Tool. In the UK, high wage growth and an unexpected decline in jobless claims canceled out hints of labor market weakness, further supporting the Pound. Different monetary policy directions between the Bank of England’s dovish easing strategy and increasing Fed dovishness are one of the prime drivers behind the currency pair’s resilience before UK GDP and US jobless claims releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • July CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY, although core CPI increased to 3.1%, lifting September Fed rate cut probabilities to 94%. • Robust wage growth and declining jobless claims supported GBP even with increased unemployment rates. • BoE’s conservative easing stance is the reverse of increasing Fed dovishness, supporting GBP/USD rallies. • UK GDP and US weekly jobless claims will be important for the pair’s near-term direction. GBP/USD accelerated higher on Tuesday, hitting close to 1.3485, as a weaker US Dollar and good UK labor market data supported the pair. The US CPI report in July revealed headline inflation unchanged at 2.7% YoY, with core CPI rising to 3.1%, sending market hopes of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve to 94%. In Britain, wage growth remained strong and unemployment claims decreased unexpectedly, which balanced fears of high levels of unemployment. The monetary policy divergence—BoE’s cautious loosening compared to the increasing dovishness at the Fed—is still being supported by the Pound, with the public now looking to future UK GDP and US jobless claims for new market directions. GBP/USD reached close to 1.3485 on Tuesday as solid UK wages growth and less bullish US Dollar sentiment supported the pair. US CPI statistics bolstered September Fed rate reduction forecasts, while UK labor market stability underpinned Pound vigor in advance of significant GDP and jobless claims data. • GBP/USD was close to 1.3485, 0.37% higher on Tuesday. • US July CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY; core CPI hit 3.1% from 2.9%. • Market probability of a September Fed rate cut rose to 94% from 84%. • UK pay growth remained firm at 5.0% YoY, as expected. • UK unemployment claims dropped by 6,200 in July, contrary to expectations. •   BoE reduced rates to 4.00% in August but signaled a pace of gradual easing. •  Traders now look to UK GDP and US unemployment claims for new direction. The British Pound rallied against the US Dollar on Tuesday following the issuance of critical economic statistics from both the UK and the US. In the UK, robust wage growth and a surprise fall in jobless claims tempered fears of soaring unemployment. The most recent data revealed that companies created more jobs than initially anticipated, and this has reflected the resistance of the labor market to the subtle signs of losing momentum. Conversely, the US Dollar was pressured by inflation data that reaffirmed hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, and increasing investor confidence in the Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continues to be a key theme for markets. While the BoE recently reduced rates but communicated a measured, gradual path to further easing, the Fed is growing increasingly likely to restart policy easing in the near future. This divergence has served to underpin sentiment for the Pound over recent sessions. Market focus then shifts to tomorrow’s UK GDP report and US jobless claims figures, which may offer additional insight into economic direction and shape investor positioning in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is maintaining above the crucial psychological level of 1.3450, and near-term resistance is found around 1.3500, a move above which can pave the way towards the 1.3550 region. The opposite way, first support is at 1.3430, followed by a solid base around 1.3400. Momentum indicators continue to be positive, with RSI still lingering in bullish territory and price action continuing to trade above the 50-period moving average on the 4-hourly, indicating that short-term buying interest is still firm. FORECAST If bulls hold firm, GBP/USD may push through the 1.3500 psychological level, opening the door for a push towards the 1.3550–1.3570 resistance region. Persistent buying interest, underpinned by robust UK GDP data or dovish Fed rhetoric, may even take the pair higher towards 1.3600 in the short term. Favorable risk appetite and continuous policy divergence between the BoE and Fed would also add further fuel to the pair’s appreciation. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3450 might unleash a corrective pullback to 1.3430, with further losses targeting the 1.3400 support. A higher-than-expected US jobless claims figure or comments from Fed officials that are more hawkish might rekindle Dollar demand and cap Pound gains. A fall through 1.3400 would switch short-term direction to a more bearish bias.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains at Two-Week Highs as Risk-On Mood Bolsters Sterling; UK PMI Figures in the Spotlight

  • BY
  • July 24, 2025
  • 0 Comments

GBP/USD remains close to two-week highs at 1.3580 in a generally softer US Dollar and a risk-on market mood that is bullish. Supportive risk-on sentiment stems from hopes for emerging trade deals between the US and major trading partners like the European Union and Japan that have lifted investor mood. In the meantime, future UK economic releases—especially the S&P PMI and Retail Sales—are in focus and can determine the next direction of the pair. Traders are also eyeing Bank of England policy advancements, as expectations for 2025 rate cuts modestly ease. KEY LOOKOUTS • Thursday’s release should indicate slight manufacturing and services recovery, which can boost GBP sentiment. • The currency is still supported by wider USD softness under risk-on sentiment and decaying Fed-related fears. • US-EU and US-Japan trade pact progress may impact overall market tone and risk appetite. • Traders are also looking for further clues on BoE’s rate trajectory and GILTS sales interruption amid subdued demand. GBP/USD is holding firm around 1.3580, underpinned by better global risk sentiment and a weaker US Dollar. Expectations of a breakthrough in US trade talks with the European Union and Japan have buoyed market sentiment, supporting the Pound to hold onto gains. Investors are monitoring Thursday’s UK S&P PMI figures closely, which may provide new insight into the condition of the UK economy. Also, speculation concerning the policy stance of the Bank of England and the temporary halt in long-term GILTS sales provides further interest for traders looking to determine the Sterling’s short-term direction. GBP/USD is close to two-week highs in light of widespread US Dollar weakness and enhanced risk appetite. GBP/USD awaits UK PMI releases and BoE policy cues for the next move. • GBP/USD is close to 1.3580 support, remaining near two-week highs in Asian trading hours. • Decreasing US Dollar provides a more than welcome boost to the pair as risk-on moods dominate global markets. • US-EU trade negotiations and agreement of a 15% tariff with Japan boost morale. • UK S&P PMI releases on Thursday may offer some new economic indications. • Friday’s UK Retail Sales will likely bounce back with the support of improved weather. • BoE stops GILTS sales temporarily due to scarce demand from pension schemes. • Rate cut hopes for 2025 have eased slightly but continue to be in the view. GBP/USD remains a focus as the global market mood has improved, with investors optimistic about possible trade deals between the United States and major global partners such as the European Union and Japan. The news about the US and EU getting closer to a deal with 15% tariffs on EU products, while also recently agreeing to a tariff deal with Japan, has increased optimism regarding more seamless global trade relations. This wider optimistic sentiment across world markets is supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the British Pound, assisting it to remain strong against the US Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the UK itself, market operators are keeping a keen eye on forthcoming economic data releases, particularly the S&P PMI numbers due out on Thursday. These are forecast to show modest gains in manufacturing as well as the services sector, providing a hint about how well the UK economy is doing. Retail sales figures out Friday, meanwhile, may indicate a pickup, fueled in part by seasonal weather patterns. The Bank of England’s recent decision to suspend long-term GILTS sales is also indicative of changing market forces, with conventional buyers taking little interest. All of these trends are influencing UK monetary policy expectations among investors heading into 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is trading firmly close to the 1.3580 level, holding its ground near a two-week high. The pair is holding above important moving averages, reflecting underlying short-term bullish momentum. If the price holds above the 1.3550–1.3560 support area, it may set the stage for a rally towards the psychological resistance point at 1.3600 and possibly higher. Any inability to hold above the near-term support, though, might tempt marginal pullbacks, although the bigger picture trend is positive as long as the pair remains over its recent breakout levels. FORECAST If the current risk-on mood continues and UK economic data comes in as strong as, or better than, expected, GBP/USD would potentially push its gains to the 1.3600 psychological resistance and beyond. Sustained positive surprises in the coming S&P PMI and Retail Sales numbers would have a good chance of solidifying confidence in the UK economy, providing further impetus for the Pound. Also, sustained weakness in the US Dollar, fueled by better global trade prospects and calm investor attitude, may deliver the needed tailwinds for the pair to continue on the upswing. Conversely, any UK macroeconomic data disappointment or abrupt change of mood in the market toward risk aversion may prompt a retreat in GBP/USD. If investors become increasingly worried about future Bank of England rate action timing or effects or if geopolitics interrupts US trade talks, the pair could come under pressure. A close below the 1.3550 support level might pave the way for more significant corrections, particularly if the US Dollar starts gaining ground on better home stimuli or more aggressive Fed rhetoric.

Read More
Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Remains Flat at 1.3440 with Markets Focusing on US Tariff Action and BoE Rate Projections

  • BY
  • July 21, 2025
  • 0 Comments

Pound Sterling (GBP) trades within a narrow range of 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets are cautious in anticipation of new US tariff actions and important UK economic figures. Market participants have reduced hopes for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in September after above-consensus UK inflation and labor market data. In contrast, the US Dollar continues to hold solid near recent highs as wagers on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September dissipate after June’s CPI numbers revealed inflationary pressures from import tariffs. GBP/USD is overall range-bound bearish since it is trading below crucial moving averages. KEY LOOKOUTS • Global trade sentiment and USD movements can be influenced by potential updates on US tariff announcements, particularly for the EU. • Expectations are lower in markets for a BoE rate cut in September with a firmer UK CPI and solid labor data; any change in tone would influence GBP. • Attention will center on the July S&P Global PMI and June Retail Sales, which might yield new indications on UK economic health and inform BoE policy. • Traders are reconsidering Fed policy expectations as the likelihood of a September rate reduction has fallen, tightening the US Dollar and affecting GBP/USD momentum. Pound Sterling is trading firm at 1.3440 against the US Dollar as market players wait for greater clarity on US tariff policy and major UK economic data. Latest data which depicted higher-than-anticipated inflation and a robust labor market in the UK have prompted major financial institutions to reduce expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in September. In the meantime, the US Dollar is resolute, buoyed by diminishing hopes for a September Fed rate cut following the June CPI report that showed fresh inflationary pressures associated with new import tariffs. Both currencies are affected by disparate monetary policy expectations as well as geopolitics, leaving the GBP/USD pair to stay locked in a tight range, mirroring investor risk aversion. The Pound Sterling hovers steadily at 1.3440 as markets look forward to US tariff news and major UK data. Robust UK inflation and employment numbers have cut BoE rate cut chances, while the US Dollar remains firm on dwindling Fed cut expectations. • GBP/USD hovers at 1.3440 as market sentiment is cautious in anticipation of new US tariff updates. •  UK inflation and labor data beat expectations, prompting analysts to dial back Bank of England rate cut forecasts for September. • Major banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs now anticipate fewer BoE cuts in 2024. • US Dollar remains supported, with DXY hovering near its four-week high due to stronger CPI data. •  Traders reduce Fed rate cut expectations, the probability of a September cut dropping to 58.5% from close to 70%. • GBP/USD technicals are still bearish, and they move below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. •  Look ahead to UK PMI and Retail Sales, which may affect near-term GBP direction. The Pound Sterling is stable as market attention turns to future news on global trade and central bank policies. With the US government setting new tariffs in preparation for the August 1 deadline, the global market mood is still cautious. Investors are closely watching how heightened trade tensions between the US and the European Union might affect international commerce and currency flows. At the same time, recent trade deals with Vietnam, the UK, and other countries have given relief, but fear is still high as Washington contemplates putting baseline tariffs of 15% to 20% on imports from the EU. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the UK side, economic resilience is transforming market expectations. More robust-than-anticipated inflation readings and a less dramatic labor market fall have compelled major financial institutions to update downward their interest rate reduction forecasts. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs analysts have reduced their expectations of a September BoE rate cut as they become increasingly optimistic regarding the UK economy’s future prospects. This week, investor focus will be on important domestic data releases, such as S&P Global PMI and Retail Sales, which are expected to provide further guidance on the direction of the UK economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair still shows a bearish inclination as it trades below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are currently placed around 1.3470 and 1.3510, respectively. The failure of the pair to close above these levels indicates continuing selling pressure. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is floating slightly above the 40 level, indicating weakening momentum; a fall below this level may set off fresh bearish action. Support is close to the May 12 low of 1.3140, and resistance is at the July 11 high of around 1.3585. FORECAST UK’s PMI or Retail Sales this week may boost confidence in the British economy and provide sterling with support. Moreover, if the US indicates easing trade tensions or if Fed officials become increasingly dovish due to global economic threats, the US Dollar can soften, giving a boost to GBP/USD to recover. A break above 1.3510 on a sustained basis can change sentiment and pave the way towards retesting July’s high at 1.3585. Pound Sterling may be subject to downward pressure if US tariff tensions intensify or if the next UK economic data falls short of market forecasts. A strong US Dollar, fueled by lower Federal Reserve rate cut chances, could also put pressure on GBP/USD. If bearish pressure gains strength, the pair may slide toward the important support level of 1.3140, particularly in the event of weakening global risk appetite or if the Bank of England indicates a more dovish policy than expected.

Read More