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GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3700 as Markets Wait for Critical US PCE Inflation Report

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  • June 27, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair holds a strong position above the level of 1.3700 in Friday’s Asian trading session, quote near 1.3735 as the Pound is supported by market sentiment over a weakening US Dollar. The Greenback is still under selling pressure in light of speculation surrounding the future autonomy of the Federal Reserve, particularly following the suggestion of former President Donald Trump of making a premature choice for the next Fed Chair, building anticipation of more rapid-than-expected US rate cuts. Also, less than impressive US GDP numbers, highlighting a deeper-than-projected 0.5% decline in Q1, have further hampered the USD. While the Pound is supported, dovish Bank of England signals can cap the upside for GBP/USD, as investors look ahead to the coming US PCE inflation data for clearer guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • An important guide for future Fed policy; better-than-expected data could underpin the USD, with poor data underpinning rate cut chances. • Trump’s words on selecting the next Fed Chair could impact USD sentiment and investor confidence in the independence of the Fed. • The deeper-than-anticipated 0.5% Q1 GDP drop reinforces worries regarding the strength of the US economy, pushing down the Greenback. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on a weakening labor market and possible rate reductions could cap gains in the Pound. GBP/USD currency pair is trading on a higher ground above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by a weakening US Dollar due to increasing fears about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and increasing prospects of premature rate cuts. Remarks made by former President Donald Trump regarding choosing the next Fed Chair shortly have created heightened speculation regarding the Fed’s policy direction, further bearing down on the Greenback. At the same time, a deeper-than-anticipated US GDP contraction has provided further pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the potential upside for the Pound can be limited by the dovish stance of the Bank of England as evidence of a decelerating UK labor market instills prudence in investors. The spotlight now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, which may inject some fresh signals into the direction of the pair. GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3700 as the weaker US Dollar, fueled by Fed uncertainty and weak economic data, dominates. Market attention now turns to the US PCE inflation figure, which may dictate expectations of future Fed policy actions. • GBP/USD at 1.3735, remaining positive territory in Friday morning Asian trading. • US Dollar loses ground amidst fears of the Fed’s autonomy and leadership change. • Trump’s comments on selecting a new Fed Chair stoke market speculation regarding prior rate reductions. • US GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, which was worse than forecast -0.2%, further depressing the USD. • BoE leaves interest rates steady at 4.25%, but dovish remarks suggest future reductions. • UK labor market is weakening, adding to caution over the Pound’s upside. • Friday’s US PCE inflation reading may propel the next major movement in GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is drawing increasing attention as overall market mood continues to support the Pound versus the US Dollar. Increased doubts regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy have been at the forefront after previous President Donald Trump expressed that he might name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell earlier than anticipated. This has put uncertainty on the market, with investors keenly observing how this could impact future monetary policy direction. To this view was added the recent US GDP data that recorded a sharper-than-projected decline, which is causing worry over the overall state of the US economy. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView For their part, policymakers at the Bank of England have taken a very dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey last week spoke about evidence of a softening labor market and hinted at the possibility of the trend of declining interest rates persisting. While the central bank left rates unchanged at its last meeting, there was internal dissent with three of the nine members voting to cut the rate. These contradictory signals on both sides of the Atlantic are maintaining investors wary, with most waiting for Friday’s US PCE inflation data release for more explicit policy guidance ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a bullish tone as it trades well above the 1.3700 psychological support level, hinting at continuous buying demand. The duo is comfortably supported by an ascending short-term trendline, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in the top half of their scale, reflecting strength in the rise. A break above the near-term resistance around 1.3750 could pave the way for further upside towards the 1.3800 area. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3700 could indicate waning momentum and bring in the next support zone around 1.3650. FORECAST If the US PCE inflation data later this week turns out to be softer-than-anticipated, it would add strength to market expectations of premature Federal Reserve rate cuts and further weaken the US Dollar. This would be likely to find support for sustained GB/USD upside, particularly if UK economy sentiment is relatively robust. A firm push past the 1.3750 resistance level may take the pair towards 1.3800 and beyond, as bulls gain strength on the back of softer US economic data and political turmoil around the Fed’s next leadership. Conversely, if the US PCE data surprises positively, it will stymie rate cut hopes, and could lend near-term support to the US Dollar. This could result in a pullback in GBP/USD, particularly if dovish comments from the Bank of England remain a drag on the Pound. A fall below the 1.3700 support level could reveal more downside to 1.3650 or even 1.3600, especially if risk appetite turns defensive or better US data brings renewed confidence in the Greenback.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Dips Below 1.3400 on US-Iran Tensions Fueled Safe-Haven Demand for Dollar

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  • June 23, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) fell sharply against the US Dollar (USD), dropping below the 1.3400 level as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran surged. The weekend US military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered a dash for safety, fueling demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. Despite upbeat UK flash PMI data showing stronger-than-expected growth in business activity, market sentiment remained risk-averse. The situation worsened as Iran threatened retaliation and considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding to global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors await key US PMI data and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing tensions between the US and Iran, such as possible retaliation and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, can continue to push safe-haven flows towards the US Dollar. • In spite of better-than-forecast UK flash PMI readings, the Pound continues to come under pressure; subsequent data releases might find it difficult to change sentiment without geopolitical calm. • Converging signals from the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve, with the dovish tilt from the latter, will drive GBP/USD in the near term. • The pair has key support at 1.3250 and resistance at 1.3630, with a fall below the 20-day EMA indicating a bearish near-term trend. Pound Sterling continues to soften versus the US Dollar, dropping below 1.3400 as the increase in US-Iran tensions boosts safe-haven demand. Risk-averse mood in the market was strengthened by an unexpected US airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites, with the rise in concerns over regional stability and global oil supply interferences. The GBP is still under pressure despite the UK’s reporting of better-than-anticipated flash PMI numbers for June. With Iran warning of retaliation and talking of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical uncertainty dominates economic indicators. Traders are waiting for US PMI data and other signals from the Federal Reserve regarding possible rate cuts, which may define the next steps for the GBP/USD pair. The Pound Sterling fell to below 1.3400 against the US Dollar amidst increased US-Iran tensions and flight to safe-haven assets. In spite of positive UK PMI readings, geopolitical uncertainties still weigh on the GBP. Investors now look towards forthcoming US PMI readings and Fed policy cues for more guidance. • GBP/USD dipped below 1.3400 amidst increasing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. • Demand for US Dollar rose as investors favored safe-haven assets. • US military attack on Iran nuclear facilities triggered risk aversion in global markets. • Iran retaliated threat and threatened to close Strait of Hormuz, a potential oil supply disruption. • UK flash PMI report topped expectations, with improved business activity. • Bank of England continued dovish tone, with gradual rate-cut forward guidance. • Fed Governor Waller signaled July rate cuts, putting pressure on USD gains if acted upon. Rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States have provoked a change in global market sentiment that has forced investors into safe-haven investments such as the US Dollar. The Pound Sterling has been under strain as markets absorb the information of the US airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear sites—an operation that has significantly increased fears of reprisals and additional unrest in the Middle East. Iran’s reaction, a threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, brings yet more risk into global energy supply chains, further unnerving investors and shifting attention away from the release of economic data.  GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Elsewhere, in the United Kingdom, publication of positive flash PMI numbers for June revealed strength in both manufacturing and services sectors, with the Composite PMI improving more strongly than anticipated. Even so, this upbeat economic growth has done nothing to support the Pound as wider geopolitical fears dominate. The Bank of England’s prudent monetary easing also confirms a wait-and-see policy as greater external threats come from increasing energy costs and worldwide tensions. Traders are keeping close watch on future US economic releases and other happenings in the Middle East to watch what the market does next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bearish bias, as it is trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is standing at about 1.3477. This reflects ongoing downward pressure against the Pound Sterling. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the neutral 50 level, reflecting no dominant direction but rather a slightly bearish stance. To the downside, support is close to the May 16 low at 1.3250, which may serve as a key floor if the pair keeps falling. To the upside, resistance is visible close to the multi-year high of 1.3630, a level that needs to be broken to indicate a trend reversal. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions start to ease and risk mood improves, the Pound Sterling could gain some ground against the US Dollar. A resolution or de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could lead to safe-haven demand for the Dollar diminishing, enabling GBP/USD to recover. On the other hand, if future US economic data falls short or the Federal Reserve indicates a more drastic rate-cut trajectory during July, the US Dollar will lose strength, resulting in upward momentum for the pair. Under such circumstances, the GBP/USD can aim for levels of resistance at 1.3477 and possibly hit the 1.3600 level if upbeat momentum is maintained. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East get worse or Iran strikes back, risk aversion in the market can intensify, driving demand for the US Dollar even higher and moving GBP/USD lower. A possible disruption in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz can also spur global inflation concerns, making the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal even stronger. Moreover, any hints of UK economic slowdown or dovish Bank of England cues would enhance bearish pressure. In such an event, the pair could test 1.3250 support, with a breach below risking a slide to 1.3100 as the next major downside target.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Firm Near Multi-Year High In Anticipation of Pivotal Fed and BoE Policy Announcements

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  • June 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair remains firm above mid-1.3500s as investors wait for pivotal economic events, such as the UK CPI data and the forthcoming monetary policy announcements of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While dovish BoE hopes and recent weaker UK economic figures press on the British Pound, the US Dollar is also capped by increasing speculation of a September Fed rate cut. With recent mixed fundamentals and increased market risk aversion, the pair remains in a tight range, as investors hold back from taking firm positions in anticipation of such significant risk events. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be carefully observed for guidance on the BoE’s future policy action. A lower print would reinforce rate cut bets. • Market attention remains on whether the BoE hints at a rate cut trajectory in light of recent developments of economic slowdown in the UK. • Any dovish message or confirmation of a September rate cut can pressure the USD and underpin GBP/USD. • Continued Middle East tensions and global trade uncertainties could drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is stuck in a range above the mid-1.3500s as traders prepare for a week of high-impact economic events. The next UK inflation figures and the Bank of England’s policy meeting should provide pivotal guidance for the British Pound, particularly in light of rising bets on a rate cut in light of soft economic data. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision will dictate the near-term direction of the US Dollar, which has come under pressure from anticipation of September easing. With mixed signals and general geopolitical worries, market participants are being cautious, holding the pair in a narrow trading range. GBP/USD hovers in a tight range over the mid-1.3500s as markets wait for the UK CPI and central bank action. BoE rate reduction hopes and dovish Fed sentiment keep both USD and GBP action contained. Traders sit on the sidelines in anticipation of significant event risks this week. • GBP/USD maintains its position above mid-1.3500s, without apparent intraday direction. • The pair is close to a three-year high, consistent with recent GBP strength. • Wednesday’s UK CPI data will be an important guide for BoE policy expectations. • BoE is likely to turn dovish in the face of dismal UK economic statistics. • Fed policy announcement on Wednesday can influence USD action heavily. • Market is expecting a possible Fed rate cut by September, capping USD advances. • Increasing Middle East tensions underpin USD’s safe-haven demand but limit volatility. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation as investors wait for a string of important economic events this week. Market participants are most keenly interested in the publication of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) figures and the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, both of which should give important clues about the direction of interest rates in the UK. Recent evidence of UK economic contraction has grown speculation on the BoE’s potential to cut policy stance ahead of schedule, shaping sentiment towards the British Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, the US Federal Reserve policy release is also under scrutiny, as market players seek directions regarding when possible rate cuts would be implemented later in the year. Although the US Dollar is held up by safe-haven appetite amidst geopolitical risks, hopes that the Fed would shift towards more accommodative policies are holding back aggressive bullish pressure. The overall market is reflecting a defensive tone as traders hold back from placing big bets until there is greater clarity from these crucial central bank events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a very tight consolidation range just above the mid-1.3500s with a lack of strong momentum. The pair is still near its recent multi-year high, reflecting underlying bullishness, but the failure to break suggests indecision on the part of traders. Support is near the 1.3550 level and resistance near the recent high at 1.3600. A continued advance above this resistance would potentially set the stage for more upside, while a breakdown below support may indicate short-term weakness in front of the Fed and BoE announcements. FORECAST If the coming UK CPI data suprises to the higher side or the Bank of England takes a less dovish tone than anticipated, the British Pound might pick up speed. Moreover, anything the Federal Reserve suggests that there is a longer horizon before rate cuts would act to reinforce GBP/USD upside as well. Under these circumstances, the pair may break through recent highs and aim for levels above 1.3600, provided global risk sentiment should revive. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK inflation reading or definite indications of future rate reductions by the BoE will heavily burden the Pound. Should the Fed hold a relatively aggressive stance or geopolitical tensions escalate, US Dollar demand might be elevated, pushing GBP/USD down. A breach of the 1.3550 support will potentially usher in further losses towards the 1.3500 psychological level and maybe even lower.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Under Pressure: Further Declines Possible Amid Weakening Upward Momentum

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  • June 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair is exhibiting symptoms of further weakness as recent price movements indicate a bearish bias. Following the breach below the critical 1.3500 support line and a dip to a low of 1.3458, the Pound is exposed to the US Dollar. Though oversold conditions may restrict near-term downside to a retest of 1.3460, UOB Group analysts warn that a clear breach below 1.3420 would set the stage for further losses. Resistance zones lie at 1.3525 and 1.3555, with the overall bearish bias intact unless GBP/USD rises above the formidable resistance at 1.3580. KEY LOOKOUTS • Support at 1.3460 is immediate, with a stronger level at 1.3420; a break through here could initiate further downside. • Resistance on the upside is capped by 1.3525 and 1.3555, with strong resistance at 1.3580. • Tentative pickup in downward momentum implies sustained bearish bias, notwithstanding present oversold levels. • Continuation of trading below 1.3500 confirms diminishing upward momentum, raising risk of further declines to 1.3420 and lower. GBP/USD currency pair continues to experience selling pressure as recent price action reflects a change towards a bearish trend. Following the breaking of key 1.3500 support level, the pair fell to 1.3458 before slightly rebounding. Although oversold conditions suggest limited near-term downside, analysts caution that a prolonged break below 1.3420 would bring about further decline. On the positive side, resistance points at 1.3525, 1.3555, and the more important barrier at 1.3580 could cap any resulting bounce, preserving the overall bearish bias for the moment. GBP/USD continues to be pressured after falling through the 1.3500 support point, hitting lows around 1.3458. Though oversold markets can inhibit near-term losses, a break below 1.3420 might prompt losses to extend. Most important resistance levels are still 1.3525 and 1.3580. • GBP/USD fell below the pivotal 1.3500 level, its low at 1.3458. • Pair’s current market sentiment is negative. • Levels to watch for support are 1.3460 and 1.3420. • Levels of resistance are located at 1.3525, 1.3555, and 1.3580. • Oversold markets might put a cap on immediate decline, but the bearish momentum continues. • Economic announcements, central bank policy, and world sentiment remain in charge of directing the market. • A drop below 1.3420 would prompt further declines, and a breakout above 1.3580 would reduce selling pressure. The recent activity on GBP/USD mirrors market sentiment shaped by economic releases, central bank actions, and world financial conditions. The Pound Sterling has been responding to changes in investors’ confidence, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations, particularly in terms of interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Market participants also continue to watch macroeconomic data like inflation, employment, and GDP growth that continue to influence the direction of both currencies. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market mood is also influenced by wider risk drivers such as global trade patterns, geopolitics, and appetite for risk assets on the part of investors. Shifts in these drivers can trigger shifts in currency flows, with traders rebalancing in response. As ever, forthcoming economic data releases and the words of central bankers will be keenly in the spotlight, providing additional insight into the likely direction of GBP/USD over the next several weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD’s decline from recent levels below 1.3500 indicates weakening bullish strength and the onset of a bearish bias. The pair touched 1.3458 briefly, suggesting that sellers are starting to take charge. Although oversold short-term conditions mean some rebound or consolidation might occur, the larger context indicates further downside threats if the pair breaks through the level of major support at 1.3420. Levels of resistance at 1.3525, 1.3555, and particularly 1.3580 are likely to mark any meaningful rally unless robust bullish catalysts are realized. FORECAST If GBP/USD succeeds in regaining the upward trend, a recovery to the resistance levels of 1.3525 and 1.3555 would be observed. A break above these levels may pave the way for another surge towards the stronger resistance at 1.3580. But any rally is set to remain capped until there is a dramatic shift in sentiment or positive economic news in favor of the Pound. On the flip side, the pair is susceptible as long as it holds below the major resistance levels. A short-term retest of the 1.3460 support and a clean break below 1.3420 may speed up selling pressure, potentially leading to a steeper fall. If bearish momentum gains further traction, the next major support would be found further down, which increases the risk of a prolonged downtrend.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Inches Close to 1.3500 as Weak US Dollar and BoE Halt Bets Fuel Sterling

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  • June 2, 2025
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GBP/USD exchange rate starts the week strong, moving nearer to the important 1.3500 level as renewed US Dollar weakness keeps pressures on the pair. The weakening of the USD is fueled by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions after soft PCE inflation readings and rising apprehensions regarding the US fiscal situation, especially in light of President Trump’s recent spending bill. In the meantime, the British Pound gets support from speculation that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates unchanged at its next June meeting. Yet, generalized caution in markets on account of rising geopolitical tensions and new US-China trade uncertainties might restrict the pair’s gains. The market now looks to future US economic news and Fed Chairman Powell’s statements for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market focus will be on near-term US economic releases, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for additional indications about the direction of Fed interest rates. • Expectations of the BoE halting rate cuts at its June 18 gathering remain underpinning the GBP, with central bank guidance being a key variable in shaping GBP/USD sentiment. • Concerns about the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s latest spending budget, and heightened US-China trade tensions can pressure the USD in the short term. • Rising geopolitical tensions—led by Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East—can drive safe-haven demand for the USD and cap gains in GBP/USD even with underlying positive drivers. GBP/USD pair remains volatile to a variety of key factors that can influence its near-term direction. Market players will be keenly watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming comments and the newest US macroeconomic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for cues on the Federal Reserve rate outlook. On the British side, hopes that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting remain behind the support for the Pound. But chronic worries over the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s recent spending bill, and escalating tensions in US-China trade relations could further pressure the US Dollar to the downside. Meanwhile, wider risk-off sentiment sourced from the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East might provide some support to the Greenback, potentially putting a lid on the upside for GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is supported by hopes of a BoE rate standstill and continued USD weakness fueled by weak US data and fiscal issues. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and a conservative global risk tone could cap any further appreciation. Traders are now looking to essential US data and Fed commentary for new direction. •  GBP/USD trades around 1.3500, gaining positive momentum in the face of new USD weakness. •  Expectations for Fed rate cut increase after weak PCE inflation data in the US. •  US fiscal worries deepen following President Trump’s spending bill, putting pressure on the Dollar. •   BoE to keep rates steady in its June 18 meeting, favoring GBP strength. •  Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East weigh on global risk appetite. •   US-China trade uncertainty returns after Trump’s remarks, contributing to USD pressure. •   Upcoming US data and Powell’s address are in the spotlight for short-term direction for markets. GBP/USD pair has begun the week on a firm footing, helped by more general weakness in the US Dollar and enhanced confidence in the British Pound. A milder US inflation reading, as expressed through the most recent PCE Price Index, has further fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will choose additional policy loosening in the months ahead. This mood, together with increasing unease regarding the US fiscal situation in the wake of passage of a new government appropriation bill, has further contributed to the downward pressure on the Dollar. In the meantime, the British Pound holds steady, supported by hopes the Bank of England will be less willing to make further cuts in future interest rates, with no near-term moves anticipated at its next policy session. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView All the while, global market sentiment is being influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations. Recent comments from President Trump, in which he hinted that China might not completely live up to the terms of their trade deal, have also added to investor wariness. Also, all the recent conflicts in places like Eastern Europe and the Middle East still bear down on overall market sentiment. Therefore, investors are remaining close to upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches by officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell, for any signals that might impact policy expectations and currency market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is demonstrating signs of bullish momentum as it slowly inches towards the important psychological resistance around the 1.3500 level. Sustained break above this point may pave the way for further appreciation, with the next resistance at 1.3570–1.3600. On the downside, near-term support is at 1.3420, followed by firmer support at 1.3370, where the buyers may get back in. The overall framework is positive, but a decisive breakout above 1.3500 is required to ensure further uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD pair holds scope for additional upside if prevailing momentum is sustained and the pair is able to achieve a clear breakout above the 1.3500 psychological mark. A change in market sentiment, aided by dovish communications from the Federal Reserve or improved UK economic indicators, could propel the pair to the next level of resistance around 1.3570–1.3600. Moreover, if the Bank of England is reticent about rate cuts while the Fed tends to ease, the policy differences might further favor bullish action in the pair. Conversely, any indication of strength in US economic statistics or even a more aggressive stance at the Fed can revive demand for the US Dollar at the expense of GBP/USD. A failure to hold above the 1.3500 level could trigger a short-term pullback, with initial support at 1.3420, and a further correction feasible towards 1.3370 if bearish momentum takes over. In addition, rising geopolitical tension or

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Eyes Key Levels In Anticipation of US PCE Data; Bulls Ready to Hold Above 1.3500 Even Under USD Pressure

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  • May 30, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair is somewhat lower below the 1.3500 level in wait of the highly awaited US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Against intraday pressure fuelled by a relatively small USD appreciation, the medium-term tone is bullish because market sentiment diverges between the Federal Reserve’s probable cuts in 2025 and the Bank of England’s probable June pause. Technical levels around 1.3425-1.3415 present buy interests, and a fall through key Fibonacci points could provide access to further losses down to 1.3300. To the contrary, a maintained strength of more than 1.3500 would reflect renewed buying momentum, which could take the pair back towards the 1.3600 cap. Investors should wait for the US inflation report before entering new positions. KEY LOOKOUTS • This vital inflation data will significantly impact USD strength and could unleash high GBP/USD volatility. • Directional bias will be determined by market expectations of a Bank of England standstill against potential Federal Reserve cuts in 2025. • This area is key for the bulls to hold; a breakdown through here could see further decline towards 1.3300. • Continued advances above 1.3500 could sustain bullish momentum, the 1.3540-1.3600 area being next resistance. Traders need to keep a close eye on the next US PCE Price Index release, as the key inflation gauge is set to fuel short-term GBP/USD volatility. The different monetary policy expectations—where the Bank of England should delay rate hikes in June while the Federal Reserve can cut rates in 2025—will remain a market driver. Technically, the 1.3425-1.3415 support area is key to sustaining the bullish trend, and a breakdown from there may clear the way towards 1.3300. On the other hand, a breakout above the psychological level of 1.3500 may inspire new buying interest, paving the way for a test of resistance around 1.3600. Watch for the release of the US PCE Price Index, which has the potential to trigger GBP/USD volatility in light of differing Fed and BoE policy expectations. Support at 1.3425-1.3415 remains key, while a move through 1.3500 would indicate resumed bullish pressure to 1.3600. •  GBP/USD is hovering below 1.3500 in light of conservative USD purchasing in advance of the US PCE inflation report. •  Divergent policies at central banks: BoE likely to freeze rate increases, whereas the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2025. •  Traders are expected to wait for new positions until the US PCE Price Index announcement provides clarity on inflation trends. •  Support at 1.3425-1.3415 is technical and presents opportunities to buy for bulls. •  A break below here may bring further losses towards the 1.3300 level, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. •  Unwavering strength over 1.3500 may prompt renewed bullish pressure targeting 1.3600 resistance. •  The 1.3540-1.3600 area is the critical hurdles for bulls to breach to reinstate the longer-term uptrend. GBP/USD is posting cautious action before the widely awaited US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, an important inflation gauge whose release could have a considerable bearing on market mood. Market players are on their guard as anticipation varies between the Federal Reserve, which is expected to weigh reducing interest rates in 2025, and the Bank of England, which will probably delay additional rate action for the time being. These contrasting outlooks are helping to balance the currency pair’s performance and limit any major shifts. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the US inflation data is released, given its potential to influence the US dollar’s trajectory. The general tone implies a guarded optimism for the British Pound, underpinned by the Bank of England’s more tempered approach relative to the Fed’s longer-term prospects of easing. With investors hedging their bets on future economic events, the GBP/USD is still vulnerable to changes in US inflation direction and central bank attitudes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is presently moving around crucial support and resistance levels that are determining its short-term trajectory. Although short-term momentum indicators indicate some downward pressure, the pair is underpinned by significant retracement levels that have been historical zones of purchase. A conclusive break through the 1.3500 psychological level would be a sign of strength and should stimulate new buying interest, at least to take the pair higher. On the other hand, a fall below major support levels would leave the way open for more losses, underlining the significance of these technical levels in determining trader choice in the face of overall market indecision. FORECAST GBP/USD succeeds in holding above the major 1.3500 level, it might set the stage for more increases to the 1.3600 region. This is likely to draw new buying interest, as investors regain optimism in the British Pound as they believe the Bank of England will stick to its current policy stance for a longer period than the Federal Reserve. Further Pound strength could also be underpinned by any softer-than-actual US inflation figures, weakening the US Dollar and stoking a broader GBP/USD rally. On the flip side, failure to stay above the support zone around 1.3425-1.3415 may see enhanced selling pressure, pushing GBP/USD down toward the level of 1.3300. Breach below this region would be an indication of a change in market sentiment, potentially signaling more robust US Dollar demand prior to the release of the US inflation report or anxiety about the UK economy. In that case, investors may get risk-averse, and the pair may come under additional pressure before any meaningful recovery is observed.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Edges Higher as UK GDP Outlook Improves Amid US Dollar Pressure and Trade Uncertainties

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  • May 15, 2025
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GBP/USD is up near 1.3300 in anticipation of the UK’s Q1 GDP release, led by a weaker US Dollar as trade uncertainties continue. The UK economy is expected to report firmer growth of 0.6% in Q1 compared to 0.1% in Q4 2024, which supports investor confidence. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness continues as Washington seems to prefer a weaker currency to improve trade competitiveness. Nevertheless, hopes for hawkish Federal Reserve rate cuts have dissipated, capping the downside pressure on the USD. Traders are watching closely UK economic releases and forthcoming US retail sales and inflation data to determine the near-term prospects of both currencies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is on the UK’s initial GDP growth rate, which is expected to display a significant acceleration to 0.6%, indicating potential economic strength. • Ongoing pressure on the US Dollar due to uncertainties around trade and potential Washington desire for a softer dollar to prop up exports. • Lower market expectations of decisive Fed rate reductions, with a mere 74% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in September, affecting USD strength. • Recent labor data showed slower job growth and rising unemployment, but moderate wage increases may influence the Bank of England’s inflation outlook and policy decisions. Investors are closely watching several key factors as GBP/USD edges higher. The UK’s Q1 GDP data, expected to show growth of 0.6%, could reinforce confidence in the British economy’s recovery. At the same time, the US Dollar continues to come under pressure due to uncertainties and speculations over whether Washington prefers a weak dollar to promote exporters. The hopes for Federal Reserve rate decreases have, however, faded, capping the dollar’s losses. Moreover, slower job growth and softening wage increases in the UK’s labor market provide Bank of England’s inflation outlook complexity, making traders keep an eye out for possible changes in monetary policy. GBP/USD is rising as the UK’s Q1 GDP should indicate more robust growth, which will enhance market sentiment. The US Dollar is still under pressure due to trade uncertainty and weaker Fed rate cut expectations. On the other hand, UK employment data and wage levels continue to put the Bank of England’s policy direction in the spotlight. • GBP/USD is trading around 1.3300, helped by a weaker US Dollar in light of continued trade uncertainty. • The UK economy is forecasted to grow by 0.6% in Q1 2025, up from 0.1% in Q4 2024, signaling economic acceleration. • Washington may prefer a weaker dollar to enhance US export competitiveness. • Expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts have eased, with only a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September. • Recent UK labor market data shows slower job growth, rising unemployment, and easing wage gains. • Some easing of the Bank of England’s inflation worry is possibly to be delivered by moderate wage growth. • Market attention turns to Friday’s UK GDP and factory data, followed by US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases later this month. The British Pound is gaining strength as the UK heads to publish its first-quarter economic expansion figures. Forecasts are that the economy has improved at a better rate than it did last quarter, and that is helping increase confidence levels in investors. On the other hand, doubts about global trade and the prospects of the US Dollar are having an impact on movements in currency. The weaker US Dollar is behind the Pound’s rise, reflecting wider worries over continued trade tensions. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the British labor market also underwent some shifting, with gradual job growth slowing and a tiny increase in unemployment. Wages, though, continue to grow modestly, providing some upbeat news for the economy. Those watching closely, though, include investors who are monitoring closely the impact these indicators will have on the Bank of England’s forthcoming decisions. Over the next few days, some of the most important economic data from the UK and the US will further indicate the health of each economy as well as the path of their respective currencies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is exhibiting a bounce approaching the 1.3300 level of resistance indicating new buying interest following recent losses. The duo finds support from major moving averages, which have begun to slope and potentially trend upwards, signaling a change in momentum. Traders, however, need to observe confirmation of a break above this level, with the failure to do so prompting a retest of support levels around 1.3200. Overall, technical indicators suggest cautious optimism, with price action being closely related to forthcoming economic data releases. FORECAST If the UK Q1 GDP figures affirm more robust than anticipated growth, it has the potential to lend a big boost to the British Pound, moving GBP/USD into the region above 1.3300. Encouraging economic news could motivate investors to be more bullish on the Pound, aided in turn by a further softening of the US Dollar in response to ongoing trade-related uncertainty. Moreover, if the next UK factory figures and pay trends also improve, the Bank of England might keep a more aggressive stance, which would provide further bullish impetus to the currency pair. On the flip side, disappointing UK economic releases or indications the labor market is depreciating further might put downward pressure on the Pound and result in GBP/USD retracing towards important support zones near 1.3200. Additionally, if the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures are stronger than anticipated, they can revive rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve or cap the losses of the dollar to place pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Traders also have to watch out for unexpected changes in global trade sentiment that lower risk appetite and cause the US Dollar to appreciate as a safe-haven currency.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Approaches 1.3200 Before Significant UK Jobs and US Inflation Figures

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  • May 13, 2025
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GBP/USD pair rose towards the 1.3200 level in early European trading on Tuesday, buoyed by optimism in recent US-UK trade progress and the cautious policy-easing stance of the Bank of England. Optimism for the Pound was also encouraged by the upgraded UK growth prediction of the BoE and the measured interest rate cut approach by the central bank. Meanwhile, traders remain focused on upcoming high-impact data releases, including the UK employment report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which could influence the next moves of both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, potentially reshaping near-term direction for the currency pair. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Today’s UK jobs report is being followed closely by markets, which has the potential to shape expectations about the Bank of England’s upcoming policy actions and the health of the British economy. •  The US inflation data for April will be one of the prime drivers for the USD, and it has the potential to guide the Federal Reserve’s attitude toward interest rate reductions. A better-than-anticipated CPI might tighten the Greenback. •  The Pound is still underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent stance on rate cuts and its revised UK growth forecast (1% vs 0.75%), which suggests optimism about economic resilience. •  Encouraging news from last week’s trade developments, including lower tariffs on British car and steel exports, is buoying sentiment towards the GBP and adding further support to GBP/USD. GBP/USD pair is trading close to 1.3200 as market participants wait for major macroeconomic data releases that could set the direction of the pair. Markets are looking towards the UK employment report, which may provide some guidance on the policy direction of the Bank of England after its cautious rate cut and revised growth forecast to 1%. At the same time, the April US Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled later today, may influence hopes regarding the next move by the Federal Reserve—especially if the inflation prints stronger than anticipated. Moreover, positive recent news for US-UK trade relations, such as lowered tariffs on UK car and steel exports, is still supporting the Pound. GBP/USD is trading around 1.3200 as markets look to pivotal UK jobs and US inflation figures later today. The Pound continues to be supported by the BoE’s conservative policy approach and enhanced UK growth prospects, with positive US-UK trade developments contributing to the upbeat mood. •   GBP/USD is near 1.3200 after early European session gains on Tuesday. •   UK job data later today may affect the direction of policy by the Bank of England. •  US release of April CPI is likely to direct the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy action. •   BoE’s cautious rate reduction and improved growth estimate (from 0.75% to 1%) provide a boost to the Pound. •   US-UK trade updates, such as lowered tariffs on autos and steel, enhance GBP sentiment. •  Sentiment for GBP is positive as the BoE hints at a gradual policy-easing policy. •  A higher-than-anticipated US CPI may propel the USD and weigh on the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD pair is gaining focus as market participants look to crucial economic news releases from both the UK and the US. Encouraging news in the trade relationship between the two countries, specifically the US move to lower tariffs on British steel and cars, has helped the Pound outlook improve. This follows the recent Bank of England policy revision, during which it opted for cautious treatment of rate changes while affirming faith in the UK economy’s strength by lifting its growth projection. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Now the spotlight turns to forthcoming economic statistics, including the UK labor data and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. These releases will help clear up further the economic health of both nations and the likely path of future monetary policy. As data remains top of mind for policymakers, the results of these releases are anxiously awaited by investors and pundits alike. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is exhibiting bullish strength as it trades close to the 1.3200 resistance level. A persistent break above this psychological level could pave the way towards the next resistance area around 1.3250–1.3270. The pair is still underpinned by the 50-day moving average, and the RSI is trading close to 60, indicating there is still scope for further upside before it goes into overbought territory. But if it fails to breach 1.3200 convincingly, then a minor pullback might be initiated with initial support around 1.3130, succeeded by more firm demand at 1.3070. Traders will be looking for a clean breakout or rejection here as the upcoming UK and US data announcements may be the drivers for the next move. FORECAST If the next UK jobs data surprises to the upside and the Bank of England continues with its wary but accommodative tone, GBP/USD may continue to make waves. A good print from the labor market, in addition to ongoing confidence in UK growth and falling trade tensions with America, might propel the pair above the 1.3200 handle. A firm breach above this resistance would unlock the way to 1.3250 and even 1.3300 in the short term, particularly if US inflation statistics print softer than anticipated, reducing the US Dollar. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK jobs report or a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI reading may put significant downward pressure on GBP/USD. Sturdy inflation figures can rekindle hopes of extended higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, increasing demand for the Greenback and pulling the pair down. A breakdown below 1.3130 would see the correction extending to 1.3070, with additional bearish pressure potentially extending to the 1.3000 psychological level if risk appetite worsens or the macro data severely underwhelms.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Fails to Hold Key Resistance of 1.3303 on Mixed Technical Indicators

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  • May 6, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair is trading near 1.3300 levels, with short-term momentum neutral as it moves close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still greater than 50, a sign that the bullish tendency still lingers. A breakout above the near-term resistance at 1.3303 would set the stage for a push up to the psychological level of 1.3400 and higher. But a failure to hold above the present levels would bring attention on the downside, with the 50-day EMA level of 1.3054 being the critical level of support. A break below this level would precipitate further losses down to the April and March lows, indicating a potential change in medium-term sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • A clear breakout above the nine-day EMA would reinforce short-term positive momentum and set the stage for a challenge of 1.3400. • A fall below this mark might signal diminishing medium-term momentum and would leave the pair vulnerable to further declines. • This remains to indicate a bullish bias, but any fall below this level may see sentiment move to neutral or bearish. • The key resistance at 1.3445 (April high) and support at 1.2708 (April low) and 1.2577 (March low) are still important for assessing the broader directional trends. GBP/USD pair is at a decisive point, trading around the 1.3300 level with near-term resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3303. The breakdown above this level may boost short-term bullish strength, pushing the pair to the psychological 1.3400 level and April high of 1.3445. But if the pair fails to break higher, it could trigger fresh selling pressure, especially if it plummets below the 50-day EMA of 1.3054, a major medium-term support. Even with the 14-day RSI holding above 50, bearish sentiment remains in view for now, although traders need to keep a close eye on price movements near these technical levels for more definitive directional signals. GBP/USD remains around 1.3300, resisting at the nine-day EMA level of 1.3303. A breakout may reach 1.3400, and support at 1.3054 continues to be important in keeping the bullish momentum intact. The RSI value above 50 continues to indicate a bullish bias. • GBP/USD remains around 1.3300 in the Asian session, indicating consolidation after the recent rise. • The nine-day EMA level of 1.3303 is the initial important resistance level. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting underlying bullish momentum. • A break above 1.3303 may see a test of 1.3400 and potentially the April high of 1.3445. • Initial support is at the 50-day EMA of 1.3054, a key level for medium-term momentum. • A break below 1.3054 may see the pair fall to the April low of 1.2708 and the March low of 1.2577. • The short-term trend is still neutral, waiting for a clear break above resistance or below support to determine direction. GBP/USD currency pair continues to remain stable around the 1.3300 level, showing cautious optimism among traders. Market players are still keen on observing wider economic trends and policy cues from both the US and the UK, which may determine the next leg of the currency pair’s trajectory. Faith in the British economy, along with prevailing expectations regarding interest rate moves, is crucial in sustaining the pair’s present tone. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical events, inflation reports, and central bank rhetoric, all of which drive broad market sentiment. The GBP/USD is still responsive to changes in risk appetite and macroeconomic direction, with traders looking for clarity before taking firm directional positions. Stability in both economies and policy clarity in the near term will be critical in deciding the pair’s next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is steady as investors look towards overall economic and geopolitical trends that may shape market sentiment. Issues like forthcoming economic releases, policies by central banks, and worldwide risk appetite are dominating investor expectations. Investors are remaining wary and waiting for stronger indications from the UK as well as the US economies before taking stronger stances. Consequently, the currency pair remains trading in a relatively stable range, indicating a wait-and-see attitude in global financial markets. FORECAST If market sentiment continues to be positive and economic indicators in the UK remain resilient, the GBP/USD pair may pick up momentum and move above key resistance levels. A continued rise could move the pair toward the psychological barrier of 1.3400, with additional potential to touch the recent high around 1.3445. Favorable news like improved UK GDP growth, softening U.S. inflation, or dovish tones from the Federal Reserve are all potential drivers of further strength in the pair. Conversely, if the pair fails to hold support or if the bearish news arises—e.g., poor UK economic data, increasing U.S. yields, or escalated geopolitical tensions—GBP/USD may once again face pressure. A fall below key support levels would set the stage for a movement towards 1.3050 and progressively test lower ranges witnessed earlier in the months, e.g., 1.2708 or even 1.2577. Any move in the direction of a more hawkish U.S. monetary policy would also hit the pound hard, making further downside even more likely.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Dollar Rises as GBP Is Affected by Inflation and BoE Rate Reduction Pressure

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  • April 17, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has experienced a breather from its recent rally, pulling back to approximately 1.3230 from a high of 1.3300 in six months. Favorable news regarding US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted the US Dollar, while disappointing inflation readings in the UK have fueled expectations for possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. In spite of the pullback, the short-term GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) moving upwards and robust bullish momentum signaled by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). A breakout above 1.3292 may propel the pair to higher levels, but a fall below 1.3164 may initiate further drops. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The positive development in US-Japan trade negotiations has brought relief to the US Dollar, which has recovered and witnessed bids. The US Dollar Index (DXY) moving up towards 99.50 may add further pressure on GBP/USD in the short run. •  UK’s soft inflation figures, especially in services, and a bleak jobs market outlook are raising hopes that the Bank of England will choose to cut interest rates, which could press down on the Pound. • The GBP/USD currency pair is in a general uptrend with the support of rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a robust V-shape recovery in the 14-day RSI, indicating that the pair may continue to rise if it surmounts recent highs. • Look for possible price reaction at 1.3292 (April 16 high) for a potential shift to 1.3430 and 1.3500. Alternatively, a fall below 1.3164 (April 15 low) may extend the decline, with 1.3063 and the psychological 1.3000 mark serving as major support. GBP/USD pair is facing a brief slowdown in its rally, retreating to near 1.3230 after hitting a six-month peak of 1.3300. This pullback is against the backdrop of firming US Dollar demand, fueled by upbeat news in US-Japan trade negotiations, which has assisted the US Dollar in its recovery. In contrast, weak UK inflation data and a less rosy labor market forecast have fueled hopes of possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England, which may put further pressure on the Pound. This notwithstanding, the short-term GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with the rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a robust bounce in the 14-day RSI pointing to the possibility of the pair reversing its downward bias and returning to upward traction should it reclaim above the 1.3292 level. But a fall below 1.3164 will stimulate further downside action, with 1.3063 and 1.3000 being crucial supports. GBP/USD has pulled back to 1.3230 from a high of 1.3300, as the US Dollar gains strength due to favorable US-Japan trade talks. Soft UK inflation figures and hopes of Bank of England rate cuts weigh on the Pound, although the short-term outlook remains bullish if the pair is able to break above 1.3292. • The GBP/USD pair pulled back to 1.3230 from a six-month high of 1.3300, indicating a halt in the recent rally. •  The US Dollar has benefited as US-Japan trade negotiations improved, sending the US Dollar Index (DXY) to close to 99.50. •  UK inflation data, particularly in the services sector, has raised hopes for possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. •  The dismal UK labor market forecast, coupled with tepid inflation, increases the chances of the Bank of England relaxing its monetary policy to spur the economy. •  In spite of the retreat, the overall GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) rising and hinting at further bullish momentum. •  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made a V-shaped recovery, which indicates that bullish momentum may continue. •  A move above 1.3292 may take GBP/USD to higher levels such as 1.3430 and 1.3500, and a fall below 1.3164 may take it lower with 1.3063 and 1.3000 being support levels. The GBP/USD currency pair has seen a pullback from its recent six-month high of 1.3300, falling back to 1.3230 as the US Dollar strengthens. This Greenback strength is largely due to favorable news in US-Japan trade talks, which have eased fears over global economic uncertainty. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has also recovered to the vicinity of 99.50, which represents the increasing confidence that the US is moving away from intensifying trade tensions. Investors are more confident now that the US will concentrate on bilateral deals instead of pursuing additional trade wars, thereby providing the US Dollar with a strong support. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView While that, the Pound Sterling continues under pressure as gentle inflation numbers in the UK have teased hopes of interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. The UK services sector inflation eased to 4.7% in March from 5% in February, which may encourage the Bank of England to unwind its monetary policy to fuel growth in the economy. Additionally, a challenging labor market outlook suggests that UK employers may reduce hiring, further impacting the strength of the Pound. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment for GBP/USD remains cautiously positive, as the pair has shown resilience, supported by market expectations of future upside potential. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in an overall bullish trend, supported by rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) across various timeframes, indicating upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exhibited a V-shaped bounce, going from 40.00 up to almost 70.00, indicating strong buying pressure and sustained bullish momentum. The critical technical levels to monitor are 1.3292, the April 16 high, which would trigger further appreciation towards 1.3430 and 1.3500 if broken. On the negative side, a drop below 1.3164 (the April 15 low) might initiate a retracement to 1.3063 and the psychological barrier of 1.3000, where support is likely to be found. In general, the technical indicators suggest a cautiously positive near-term scenario for the pair. FORECAST GBP/USD pair might renew its bullish trajectory if it can break over the recent high of 1.3292 on April 16. Breaking above that mark would set the pair up to move higher, potentially toward the

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