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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Gains as US CPI Data Sustains September Gilt Cut Expectations

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  • August 12, 2025
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GBP/USD rose on Tuesday, trading at 1.3485, as weaker US Dollar sentiment and positive UK labor market data underpinned the pair. The recent US CPI report revealed headline inflation remained at 2.7% YoY in July, and core CPI accelerated to 3.1%, leading markets to increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 94% as per the CME FedWatch Tool. In the UK, high wage growth and an unexpected decline in jobless claims canceled out hints of labor market weakness, further supporting the Pound. Different monetary policy directions between the Bank of England’s dovish easing strategy and increasing Fed dovishness are one of the prime drivers behind the currency pair’s resilience before UK GDP and US jobless claims releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • July CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY, although core CPI increased to 3.1%, lifting September Fed rate cut probabilities to 94%. • Robust wage growth and declining jobless claims supported GBP even with increased unemployment rates. • BoE’s conservative easing stance is the reverse of increasing Fed dovishness, supporting GBP/USD rallies. • UK GDP and US weekly jobless claims will be important for the pair’s near-term direction. GBP/USD accelerated higher on Tuesday, hitting close to 1.3485, as a weaker US Dollar and good UK labor market data supported the pair. The US CPI report in July revealed headline inflation unchanged at 2.7% YoY, with core CPI rising to 3.1%, sending market hopes of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve to 94%. In Britain, wage growth remained strong and unemployment claims decreased unexpectedly, which balanced fears of high levels of unemployment. The monetary policy divergence—BoE’s cautious loosening compared to the increasing dovishness at the Fed—is still being supported by the Pound, with the public now looking to future UK GDP and US jobless claims for new market directions. GBP/USD reached close to 1.3485 on Tuesday as solid UK wages growth and less bullish US Dollar sentiment supported the pair. US CPI statistics bolstered September Fed rate reduction forecasts, while UK labor market stability underpinned Pound vigor in advance of significant GDP and jobless claims data. • GBP/USD was close to 1.3485, 0.37% higher on Tuesday. • US July CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY; core CPI hit 3.1% from 2.9%. • Market probability of a September Fed rate cut rose to 94% from 84%. • UK pay growth remained firm at 5.0% YoY, as expected. • UK unemployment claims dropped by 6,200 in July, contrary to expectations. •   BoE reduced rates to 4.00% in August but signaled a pace of gradual easing. •  Traders now look to UK GDP and US unemployment claims for new direction. The British Pound rallied against the US Dollar on Tuesday following the issuance of critical economic statistics from both the UK and the US. In the UK, robust wage growth and a surprise fall in jobless claims tempered fears of soaring unemployment. The most recent data revealed that companies created more jobs than initially anticipated, and this has reflected the resistance of the labor market to the subtle signs of losing momentum. Conversely, the US Dollar was pressured by inflation data that reaffirmed hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, and increasing investor confidence in the Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continues to be a key theme for markets. While the BoE recently reduced rates but communicated a measured, gradual path to further easing, the Fed is growing increasingly likely to restart policy easing in the near future. This divergence has served to underpin sentiment for the Pound over recent sessions. Market focus then shifts to tomorrow’s UK GDP report and US jobless claims figures, which may offer additional insight into economic direction and shape investor positioning in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is maintaining above the crucial psychological level of 1.3450, and near-term resistance is found around 1.3500, a move above which can pave the way towards the 1.3550 region. The opposite way, first support is at 1.3430, followed by a solid base around 1.3400. Momentum indicators continue to be positive, with RSI still lingering in bullish territory and price action continuing to trade above the 50-period moving average on the 4-hourly, indicating that short-term buying interest is still firm. FORECAST If bulls hold firm, GBP/USD may push through the 1.3500 psychological level, opening the door for a push towards the 1.3550–1.3570 resistance region. Persistent buying interest, underpinned by robust UK GDP data or dovish Fed rhetoric, may even take the pair higher towards 1.3600 in the short term. Favorable risk appetite and continuous policy divergence between the BoE and Fed would also add further fuel to the pair’s appreciation. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3450 might unleash a corrective pullback to 1.3430, with further losses targeting the 1.3400 support. A higher-than-expected US jobless claims figure or comments from Fed officials that are more hawkish might rekindle Dollar demand and cap Pound gains. A fall through 1.3400 would switch short-term direction to a more bearish bias.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains at Two-Week Highs as Risk-On Mood Bolsters Sterling; UK PMI Figures in the Spotlight

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  • July 24, 2025
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GBP/USD remains close to two-week highs at 1.3580 in a generally softer US Dollar and a risk-on market mood that is bullish. Supportive risk-on sentiment stems from hopes for emerging trade deals between the US and major trading partners like the European Union and Japan that have lifted investor mood. In the meantime, future UK economic releases—especially the S&P PMI and Retail Sales—are in focus and can determine the next direction of the pair. Traders are also eyeing Bank of England policy advancements, as expectations for 2025 rate cuts modestly ease. KEY LOOKOUTS • Thursday’s release should indicate slight manufacturing and services recovery, which can boost GBP sentiment. • The currency is still supported by wider USD softness under risk-on sentiment and decaying Fed-related fears. • US-EU and US-Japan trade pact progress may impact overall market tone and risk appetite. • Traders are also looking for further clues on BoE’s rate trajectory and GILTS sales interruption amid subdued demand. GBP/USD is holding firm around 1.3580, underpinned by better global risk sentiment and a weaker US Dollar. Expectations of a breakthrough in US trade talks with the European Union and Japan have buoyed market sentiment, supporting the Pound to hold onto gains. Investors are monitoring Thursday’s UK S&P PMI figures closely, which may provide new insight into the condition of the UK economy. Also, speculation concerning the policy stance of the Bank of England and the temporary halt in long-term GILTS sales provides further interest for traders looking to determine the Sterling’s short-term direction. GBP/USD is close to two-week highs in light of widespread US Dollar weakness and enhanced risk appetite. GBP/USD awaits UK PMI releases and BoE policy cues for the next move. • GBP/USD is close to 1.3580 support, remaining near two-week highs in Asian trading hours. • Decreasing US Dollar provides a more than welcome boost to the pair as risk-on moods dominate global markets. • US-EU trade negotiations and agreement of a 15% tariff with Japan boost morale. • UK S&P PMI releases on Thursday may offer some new economic indications. • Friday’s UK Retail Sales will likely bounce back with the support of improved weather. • BoE stops GILTS sales temporarily due to scarce demand from pension schemes. • Rate cut hopes for 2025 have eased slightly but continue to be in the view. GBP/USD remains a focus as the global market mood has improved, with investors optimistic about possible trade deals between the United States and major global partners such as the European Union and Japan. The news about the US and EU getting closer to a deal with 15% tariffs on EU products, while also recently agreeing to a tariff deal with Japan, has increased optimism regarding more seamless global trade relations. This wider optimistic sentiment across world markets is supporting risk-sensitive currencies like the British Pound, assisting it to remain strong against the US Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView In the UK itself, market operators are keeping a keen eye on forthcoming economic data releases, particularly the S&P PMI numbers due out on Thursday. These are forecast to show modest gains in manufacturing as well as the services sector, providing a hint about how well the UK economy is doing. Retail sales figures out Friday, meanwhile, may indicate a pickup, fueled in part by seasonal weather patterns. The Bank of England’s recent decision to suspend long-term GILTS sales is also indicative of changing market forces, with conventional buyers taking little interest. All of these trends are influencing UK monetary policy expectations among investors heading into 2025. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is trading firmly close to the 1.3580 level, holding its ground near a two-week high. The pair is holding above important moving averages, reflecting underlying short-term bullish momentum. If the price holds above the 1.3550–1.3560 support area, it may set the stage for a rally towards the psychological resistance point at 1.3600 and possibly higher. Any inability to hold above the near-term support, though, might tempt marginal pullbacks, although the bigger picture trend is positive as long as the pair remains over its recent breakout levels. FORECAST If the current risk-on mood continues and UK economic data comes in as strong as, or better than, expected, GBP/USD would potentially push its gains to the 1.3600 psychological resistance and beyond. Sustained positive surprises in the coming S&P PMI and Retail Sales numbers would have a good chance of solidifying confidence in the UK economy, providing further impetus for the Pound. Also, sustained weakness in the US Dollar, fueled by better global trade prospects and calm investor attitude, may deliver the needed tailwinds for the pair to continue on the upswing. Conversely, any UK macroeconomic data disappointment or abrupt change of mood in the market toward risk aversion may prompt a retreat in GBP/USD. If investors become increasingly worried about future Bank of England rate action timing or effects or if geopolitics interrupts US trade talks, the pair could come under pressure. A close below the 1.3550 support level might pave the way for more significant corrections, particularly if the US Dollar starts gaining ground on better home stimuli or more aggressive Fed rhetoric.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Remains Flat at 1.3440 with Markets Focusing on US Tariff Action and BoE Rate Projections

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  • July 21, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) trades within a narrow range of 1.3440 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets are cautious in anticipation of new US tariff actions and important UK economic figures. Market participants have reduced hopes for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut in September after above-consensus UK inflation and labor market data. In contrast, the US Dollar continues to hold solid near recent highs as wagers on the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September dissipate after June’s CPI numbers revealed inflationary pressures from import tariffs. GBP/USD is overall range-bound bearish since it is trading below crucial moving averages. KEY LOOKOUTS • Global trade sentiment and USD movements can be influenced by potential updates on US tariff announcements, particularly for the EU. • Expectations are lower in markets for a BoE rate cut in September with a firmer UK CPI and solid labor data; any change in tone would influence GBP. • Attention will center on the July S&P Global PMI and June Retail Sales, which might yield new indications on UK economic health and inform BoE policy. • Traders are reconsidering Fed policy expectations as the likelihood of a September rate reduction has fallen, tightening the US Dollar and affecting GBP/USD momentum. Pound Sterling is trading firm at 1.3440 against the US Dollar as market players wait for greater clarity on US tariff policy and major UK economic data. Latest data which depicted higher-than-anticipated inflation and a robust labor market in the UK have prompted major financial institutions to reduce expectations of a Bank of England rate cut in September. In the meantime, the US Dollar is resolute, buoyed by diminishing hopes for a September Fed rate cut following the June CPI report that showed fresh inflationary pressures associated with new import tariffs. Both currencies are affected by disparate monetary policy expectations as well as geopolitics, leaving the GBP/USD pair to stay locked in a tight range, mirroring investor risk aversion. The Pound Sterling hovers steadily at 1.3440 as markets look forward to US tariff news and major UK data. Robust UK inflation and employment numbers have cut BoE rate cut chances, while the US Dollar remains firm on dwindling Fed cut expectations. • GBP/USD hovers at 1.3440 as market sentiment is cautious in anticipation of new US tariff updates. •  UK inflation and labor data beat expectations, prompting analysts to dial back Bank of England rate cut forecasts for September. • Major banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs now anticipate fewer BoE cuts in 2024. • US Dollar remains supported, with DXY hovering near its four-week high due to stronger CPI data. •  Traders reduce Fed rate cut expectations, the probability of a September cut dropping to 58.5% from close to 70%. • GBP/USD technicals are still bearish, and they move below the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. •  Look ahead to UK PMI and Retail Sales, which may affect near-term GBP direction. The Pound Sterling is stable as market attention turns to future news on global trade and central bank policies. With the US government setting new tariffs in preparation for the August 1 deadline, the global market mood is still cautious. Investors are closely watching how heightened trade tensions between the US and the European Union might affect international commerce and currency flows. At the same time, recent trade deals with Vietnam, the UK, and other countries have given relief, but fear is still high as Washington contemplates putting baseline tariffs of 15% to 20% on imports from the EU. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the UK side, economic resilience is transforming market expectations. More robust-than-anticipated inflation readings and a less dramatic labor market fall have compelled major financial institutions to update downward their interest rate reduction forecasts. Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs analysts have reduced their expectations of a September BoE rate cut as they become increasingly optimistic regarding the UK economy’s future prospects. This week, investor focus will be on important domestic data releases, such as S&P Global PMI and Retail Sales, which are expected to provide further guidance on the direction of the UK economy. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair still shows a bearish inclination as it trades below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are currently placed around 1.3470 and 1.3510, respectively. The failure of the pair to close above these levels indicates continuing selling pressure. Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is floating slightly above the 40 level, indicating weakening momentum; a fall below this level may set off fresh bearish action. Support is close to the May 12 low of 1.3140, and resistance is at the July 11 high of around 1.3585. FORECAST UK’s PMI or Retail Sales this week may boost confidence in the British economy and provide sterling with support. Moreover, if the US indicates easing trade tensions or if Fed officials become increasingly dovish due to global economic threats, the US Dollar can soften, giving a boost to GBP/USD to recover. A break above 1.3510 on a sustained basis can change sentiment and pave the way towards retesting July’s high at 1.3585. Pound Sterling may be subject to downward pressure if US tariff tensions intensify or if the next UK economic data falls short of market forecasts. A strong US Dollar, fueled by lower Federal Reserve rate cut chances, could also put pressure on GBP/USD. If bearish pressure gains strength, the pair may slide toward the important support level of 1.3140, particularly in the event of weakening global risk appetite or if the Bank of England indicates a more dovish policy than expected.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Falls as Robust US Data Dull Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Sterling Weakens Despite Supportive UK Jobs Data

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  • July 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair fell to 1.3408 in the North American session as better-than-forecasted American economic news boosted the demand for the Dollar and squashed expectations of a soon Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 221K, while retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, both better than predicted and supporting the Fed’s reluctance to ease policy. Hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler contributed to the Dollar’s strength. The UK labor market cooled but not as swiftly as anticipated, providing little encouragement for the Pound. Consequently, Sterling continued to underperform amidst conflicting economic indicators and central bank forecasts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Improved-than-expected jobless claims and retail sales figures favor the US Dollar and lower the chances of a Fed rate cut in the short term. • Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicate interest rates could stay constant despite inflationary fears, particularly from tariffs. • The UK’s more sluggish-than-anticipated cooling in its labor market did not offer sterling any meaningful support, which left GBP/USD vulnerable. • GBP/USD is heading towards crucial support levels at 1.3373, with more downside potential towards 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA of 1.3278 if negative momentum persists. The GBP/USD currency pair was subjected to fresh selling pressure after the release of a robust set of U.S. economic data, which provided added impetus to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on cutting interest rates. With unemployment claims declining to 221K and retail sales increasing 0.6% in June, the numbers hinted at ongoing economic strength in the U.S., further pushing up the Greenback to new monthly highs. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s dovish comments further bolstered the Dollar as she highlighted maintaining rates at current levels in the face of tariff-driven inflation. Conversely, the UK labor market only moderately indicated a slowdown, which was not enough to prop up the Pound, and GBP/USD continued trading around weekly lows at the 1.3400 level. GBP/USD fell to 1.3408 as impressive U.S. jobless claims and retail sales figures boosted the Greenback and dampened rate cut speculation. Aggressive Fed commentary put additional pressure on Sterling, as it struggled even with a relatively resilient UK labor release. • GBP/USD went down to 1.3408 after robust US data boosted the Dollar in the North American session. • US Jobless Claims fell to 221K, better than the predicted 235K, indicating a healthy employment scenario. • June Retail Sales climbed 0.6%, much greater than the predicted 0.1%, bolstering economic strength. • Fed Governor Kugler indicated no hurry to reduce rates, pointing to inflationary pressures and firm jobs. • UK labor data showed slower-than-expected cooling, with the Claimant Count Change at 25.9K. • Sterling remained pressured, unable to gain momentum despite less negative domestic data. • Technical bias remains neutral-to-bearish, with key support at 1.3373 and resistance near the 50-day SMA at 1.3500. The GBP/USD exchange rate reacted to the latest round of economic data, with the U.S. Dollar strengthens after strong performance in jobless claims and retail spending. The initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated, and consumer expenditure witnessed strong growth during June—both indicators that the U.S. economy is still strong. These occurrences, combined with the recent inflation numbers, led investors to re-evaluate the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler echoed this view by asserting that monetary policy is likely to stay stable for the time being considering continued price pressures. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The UK labor market statistics, on the other hand, presented a moderate level of strength, where there was a less-than-anticipated increase in unemployment benefit claims. Nonetheless, the British Pound had little support since broader market sentiment was positive towards the Dollar. Political clarity within the U.S. also came into play, with fears surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s employment status being dismissed by President Trump, taking away one layer of uncertainty. Focus now turns to forthcoming central bank commentary as well as other economic data that can shape currency interactions between the Pound and the Dollar. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has a neutral-to-bearish bias since it is trading close to the lower boundary of its recent range at 1.3400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows persistent bearish momentum that implies that sellers are still in charge notwithstanding sporadic buying interest. To turn the outlook bullish, the pair would have to retake the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3500. Failing that may create room for further losses, with short-term support at 1.3373 followed by the psychological level of 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3278. FORECAST On the other hand, in case of increased bullish momentum, GBP/USD may try to recover towards the 1.3485 level, which was the recent two-day high. A breakout above this resistance could set the stage for a challenge of the 50-day SMA near 1.3500, a key level that may confirm a change in short-term sentiment. Continued advances above this area could prompt additional gains toward 1.3570 and possibly 1.3620, if further supporting UK data or dovish turns from the Fed favor the Pound. On the negative side, sustained Dollar strength and tight Fed policy expectations could drive GBP/USD below near-term support at 1.3373. A breakdown below here would risk further losses down to the 1.3300 psychological level. Should selling continue, the pair could fall further down to the 100-day SMA at 1.3278, with further downside targets at 1.3200 not precluded in a bearish environment.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Struggles Near Multi-Week Low Ahead of Sensitive US CPI Data: Bearish Momentum Picks Up

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  • July 15, 2025
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GBP/USD pair is trading in close bearish consolidation in the area of 1.3430, just above a multi-week low, while waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Downside pressure on the pair increases due to low UK macroeconomic data and increasing expectations of an August Bank of England rate cut. Conversely, the US Dollar continues to remain fairly supported with dwindling hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate reduction. Technically, the fall below the 100-period SMA confirms bearish expectations, although oversold conditions in RSI can expect intraday bounces prior to the resumption of the pair’s declining trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong reading may be bullish for the USD and further weaken GBP/USD; a weak print could offer temporary relief for the pair. • Bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England in August continue to be high, further boosting the bearish sentiment against the Pound. • The attempts at recovery are expected to encounter stiff resistance around 1.3470 and the psychological 1.3500 level. • Sustained price action below the 1.3400 level is expected to trigger new selling, subjecting the pair to targets on the downside such as 1.3355 and 1.3300. GBP/USD currency pair continues to trade around its multi-week low at around the 1.3430 level, supporting the timid sentiment from the traders in view of the vital US CPI release. Market mood is still bearish due to weak UK economic figures and increasing speculation over an August Bank of England rate cut against the backdrop of more cautious Fed on easing. While the US Dollar has drawn back from recent highs, any rally in GBP/USD will be capped by technical resistance in the 1.3470–1.3500 area. Overall, the bias remains to the downside unless inflation data causes a change of direction. GBP/USD is trading close to a multi-week low of 1.3430 as the market waits for US CPI numbers. Bearishness remains after poor UK data and increasing BoE rate cutting expectations. Upside is contained below 1.3500, and new downside risks only below 1.3400. • GBP/USD is in a bearish consolidation close to the 1.3430 mark, just above a multi-week low. • Market participants are wary before the crucial US CPI numbers, which may impact the Fed’s rate expectations. • Soft UK macroeconomic figures bolster the argument that the BoE might cut rates in August. • Disagreement between policy expectations for the BoE and Fed puts additional pressure on the Pound. • The pair has just broken below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, a negative technical warning. • RSI is oversold, which implies possible short-term intraday bounces. • The key support is 1.3400, with the following downside targets being 1.3355, 1.3300, and 1.3265. The GBP/USD currency pair is in pressure at present as traders wait for the release of the most recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. General sentiment remains defensive, with investors not wanting to make big bets before they know the way US inflation is headed, which would have implications for the Federal Reserve’s next course of action. Meanwhile, the British Pound remains under headwinds as a result of a weaker economic performance within the UK, in the aftermath of a series of disappointing releases on data, which furthered the expectations of an August rate cut by the Bank of England. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This difference in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has been behind a fundamentally bearish environment for GBP/USD. Whilst the Fed is likely to keep its finger on the rate hike trigger, the BoE is coming under increasing pressure to relax monetary conditions to prop up the UK economy. Consequently, market sentiment is still against the Pound, and traders are watching both economic data and central bank rhetoric from both the Atlantic and the Atlantic’s eastern seaboard very closely. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD recently fell below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour time frame, indicating a bearish trend in momentum. In spite of the downward pressure, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently stuck in oversold region, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation or slight bounce. Yet, any bounce is expected to encounter stiff resistance around the 1.3470–1.3500 zone, which might limit gains and keep the pair in selling pressure. A firm break below 1.3400 would most probably seal further losses, with the possibility of greater losses to come. FORECAST Should the coming US CPI data underwhelm and precipitate an across-the-board decline in the US Dollar, GBP/USD may experience an interim rebound. Early resistance should be at 1.3470, with a crossing of this line having a good chance of propelling the pair to the psychological 1.3500 barrier. Persistent force there could induce a short-covering rally with additional upside targets at 1.3550 and, potentially, 1.3600–1.3625, depending on market and momentum factors. To the downside, a clear break of the 1.3400 support area would most probably consolidate the bearish trend. In that event, GBP/USD might accelerate lower to 1.3355, with more losses hitting the 1.3300 mark. A further drop may even stretch to the 100-day Simple Moving Average, which is currently at around the 1.3265 area, as the market reacts to the increasing divergence between BoE and Fed policy expectations.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Climbs on Uncertainty Over US Tariffs and BoE Warnings on Economic Risk

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  • July 10, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) rose against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading around 1.3600, as investor mood remained nervous with increasing uncertainty over US trade talks and fresh retaliatory tariffs that are scheduled to go into effect on August 1. Notwithstanding warnings issued by the Bank of England (BoE) regarding large economic dangers—such as geopolitical tensions, an increase in national debt, and poor business sentiment—the British currency got some respite. The US Dollar, meanwhile, lost a bit of ground as markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone in its June meeting minutes, which signaled possible rate cuts if tariff-induced inflation stays in check. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are keeping a close eye on whether the US clinches trade agreements with important partners such as China, the Eurozone, Canada, and Mexico prior to the onset of new reciprocal tariffs. •  The UK’s monthly factory output and GDP for May are awaited by investors, with GDP predicted to bounce back by 0.1% following April’s 0.3% decline. •  Warnings by the Bank of England regarding escalating geopolitical tensions, a fractured global marketplace, and rising sovereign debt will also impact investor sentiment towards the Pound. •  FOMC minutes indicate potential interest rate reductions this year, depending on the trajectory of tariff-induced inflation, which can continue to put pressure on the US Dollar. The Pound Sterling rose against the US Dollar on Thursday to trade around the 1.3600 level as market players reacted to a combination of economic and geopolitical events. Investor attention was on rising trade tensions, with the US scheduled to levy new retaliatory tariffs on 21 countries from August 1, adding volatility to worldwide markets and exerting pressure on the US Dollar. In spite of the Bank of England’s warning report flagging high economic risks like geopolitics instability, increased national debt, and muted business investment sentiment, the Pound firmed up. Dealers are also looking forward to future UK GDP and factory production figures, as the dovish policy bias from the Federal Reserve added weight to further weaken the Greenback. The Pound Sterling hovers at 1.3600 against the US Dollar in increasing uncertainty about US trade policy and impending reciprocal tariffs. Even as the Bank of England cautions rising economic threats, the GBP remains firm while investors hold out for pivotal UK economic reports and news of international trade talks. • GBP/USD hovers near 1.3600 as the Pound slightly improves during Thursday’s European session. • US dollar falls on uncertainty surrounding future reciprocal tariffs that will kick in on August 1. • Bank of England issues a warning over economic threats, such as geopolitical tensions, increasing sovereign debt, and poor business morale. • British factory and GDP data for May are expected; GDP is expected to increase by 0.1% following a reduction in April. • US President Trump announces 50% tariffs on copper imports and new trade measures with 21 countries. • FOMC minutes reveal ambivalent sentiment with two members of the Fed supporting interest rate cuts in July. • Technical indicators hint at a neutral trend with RSI around 50 and price around the 20-day EMA. The Pound Sterling was stable against the US Dollar on Thursday as market focus continued to be on international trade updates and UK economic risks. The British currency remained resilient in spite of a conservative mid-year Financial Policy Committee (FPC) report from the Bank of England, cautioning of increasing risks to the UK economy. The report also noted risks like geopolitical tension, disintegration of global trade, stress on sovereign debt, and low investment sentiment. These risks, says the FPC, threaten financial stability and may have implications for future economic growth. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, in the United States, the trade landscape continued to evolve as President Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs affecting 21 nations, including major partners like Japan and South Korea. These tariffs are set to take effect on August 1 and are part of a broader push for more favorable trade terms. Though trade deals with the UK and Vietnam have been agreed, those with other important partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the Eurozone are uncertain. The threat of escalating trade tensions is making global markets tread carefully, as investors seek clear signals on the direction of international trade relationships. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair is moving near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3590, reflecting a neutral short-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around the 50.00 mark, indicating a lack of significant momentum in either direction. A fall below the important psychological support level of 1.3500 may indicate fresh selling pressure, and a strong break above 1.3700 may set the stage for further advances towards the multi-year high around 1.3800. Overall, the duo seems to be in the process of consolidation, waiting for new catalysts for directional action. FORECAST If there are positive breakthroughs in US trade talks, especially with major partners such as China, Canada, and the Eurozone, investor appetite for risk would grow, weakening the US Dollar and boosting the Pound Sterling. Also, better-than-forecast UK GDP and factory production statistics would improve faith in the British economy, hopefully driving GBP/USD to resistance points at about 1.3700 and, if the rally is sustained, as high as the three-and-a-half-year peak around 1.3800. Conversely, if the US is unable to secure trade agreements prior to the August 1 tariff deadline, global trade tensions may escalate sharply, supporting the safe-haven US Dollar. In addition, if future UK economic data is disappointing or concern regarding increasing national debt and geopolitical risks accelerates, the GBP might be pressured. A fall below the 1.3500 psychological support point may lead to further losses towards the next significant point at 1.3400.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Plummets on UK Political Crisis and Rumor of Reeves’ Departure; US Jobs Report, Trump Tax Bill Delay Contribute to Volatility

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  • July 2, 2025
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The British Pound plunged against the US Dollar, falling close to 170 pips as political crisis shook UK markets. Speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves would be ousted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a rebellion among Labour MPs that compelled the alteration of a flagship welfare bill erased £5 billion worth of expected cost savings, driving 10-year Gilt yields to the highest level since the 2022 Truss-era crisis. At the same time, in the US, a shocking -33K ADP-reported job loss and Donald Trump’s stalled tax reform bill added more pressure on market sentiment. As much as GBP/USD dropped to a six-day low, technical indicators point towards limited downside unless the pair breaks through key supports. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention is on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer will replace Chancellor Rachel Reeves as internal Labour dissent mounts. • 10-year Gilt yields surged to 4.68%, indicating investor concern regarding fiscal soundness in the wake of the £5B welfare bill reversal. • ADP report revealed the unexpected loss of 33K private sector jobs, which ignited questions regarding the US labor market’s resilience. • The timing of Trump’s vote on the significant tax bill remains unclear, and changing US-Vietnam trade dynamics introduce a new dimension to world trade sentiment. The GBP/USD currency pair fell sharply as political chaos in the UK intensifies, with the British Pound falling more than 170 pips as rumors intensify that Chancellor Rachel Reeves might be ousted from office by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The market responded vigorously to a rebellion by Labour MPs that compelled the government to drop the welfare reform bill, removing £5 billion of anticipated savings and sending 10-year Gilt yields to post-Truss highs of 4.68%. At the same time, US economic indicators fueled volatility, as the ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 33K private sector jobs in June. On top of that, worries regarding a postponement of former President Donald Trump’s proposed tax reform bill and an announcement of a new trade agreement with Vietnam contributed to unease on global markets. GBP/USD plummeted more than 170 pips as UK political uncertainties shook investor confidence due to gossip surrounding Chancellor Reeves’ fate. Rising gilt yields and a shocking US job loss contributed to market uncertainty. Market participants now look forward to Starmer’s actions and future fiscal indications. • GBP/USD plunged over 170 pips to settle at 1.3562 on account of UK political uncertainty. • Gossip increases that PM Keir Starmer might replace Chancellor Rachel Reeves. • A Labour MP revolt pushed changes to the welfare bill, eliminating £5B in budgeted savings. • UK 10-year Gilt yields jumped to 4.68%, their greatest level since October 2022. • US ADP numbers revealed a surprising -33K loss of jobs in June, shocking markets. • Trump tax reform bill is delayed, with House conservatives calling for revisions. • A new US-Vietnam trade pact was announced, providing for 0% tariffs on US exports. The British Pound was put under heavy stress as political instability intensified in the UK amid heightening speculation that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves might be ousted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This came after a dramatic Labour MP revolt that compelled the government to remove pivotal features of its welfare reform bill, essentially wiping out £5 billion in estimated savings. The internal struggle triggered worries about the government’s financial credibility and economic strategy over the long term, continuing to erode investor confidence. People are now keenly waiting to see what Starmer does next amid doubts hanging over the stability of his team and economic agenda. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the uncertainty, the United States witnessed a surprising decline in private sector employment, with the ADP report logging a fall of 33,000 jobs in June. In the meantime, political tensions in Washington stalled action on former President Donald Trump’s suggested bill on tax reform, popularly referred to as “One Big Beautiful Bill.” House Republican conservatives expressed worries about the bill being ready enough, causing its vote to go beyond the anticipated July 4 deadline. In another development, Trump also broke news of an improved trade agreement with Vietnam, subjecting US exports to 0% tariffs and imposing substantial duties on Vietnamese imports. These events are contributing to international economic anxiety, adding to the pressure on currencies such as the Pound. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD dipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.3590 and traded a six-day low at 1.3562 briefly before narrowing to slightly above the 1.3600 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell aggressively from approximately 65 to 54, reflecting diminishing bullish momentum but not yet indicating oversold conditions. Unless the pair stays above the important 1.3560 support level, the general uptrend will continue to remain in force. The consistent break above 1.3650 may expose the price to a test of the 1.3700 level, whereas a failure to support at 1.3600 will lead to a short-term consolidation between 1.3560 and 1.3650. FORECAST If political volatility subsides and the UK government offers clear fiscal direction, GBP/USD can bounce back. A clear break above 1.3650 might gain bullish interest, thus pushing the pair towards the 1.3700 resistance level. Strong news like Chancellor Reeves holding onto her role, passage of important economic bills, or better UK economic data would also enhance investor optimism and a stronger Pound in the short run. But if political turbulence continues to grow or there is a change of Chancellor Reeves, markets will read this as a sign of leadership weakening, further pressuring the Pound. A drop below the 1.3560 support point would push prices further down toward 1.3500 or lower. Also, if future US data continues to strengthen the Dollar or Trump’s trade and tax policies trigger additional market responses, GBP/USD’s downside risks could become even deeper.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3700 as Markets Wait for Critical US PCE Inflation Report

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  • June 27, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair holds a strong position above the level of 1.3700 in Friday’s Asian trading session, quote near 1.3735 as the Pound is supported by market sentiment over a weakening US Dollar. The Greenback is still under selling pressure in light of speculation surrounding the future autonomy of the Federal Reserve, particularly following the suggestion of former President Donald Trump of making a premature choice for the next Fed Chair, building anticipation of more rapid-than-expected US rate cuts. Also, less than impressive US GDP numbers, highlighting a deeper-than-projected 0.5% decline in Q1, have further hampered the USD. While the Pound is supported, dovish Bank of England signals can cap the upside for GBP/USD, as investors look ahead to the coming US PCE inflation data for clearer guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • An important guide for future Fed policy; better-than-expected data could underpin the USD, with poor data underpinning rate cut chances. • Trump’s words on selecting the next Fed Chair could impact USD sentiment and investor confidence in the independence of the Fed. • The deeper-than-anticipated 0.5% Q1 GDP drop reinforces worries regarding the strength of the US economy, pushing down the Greenback. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on a weakening labor market and possible rate reductions could cap gains in the Pound. GBP/USD currency pair is trading on a higher ground above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by a weakening US Dollar due to increasing fears about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and increasing prospects of premature rate cuts. Remarks made by former President Donald Trump regarding choosing the next Fed Chair shortly have created heightened speculation regarding the Fed’s policy direction, further bearing down on the Greenback. At the same time, a deeper-than-anticipated US GDP contraction has provided further pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the potential upside for the Pound can be limited by the dovish stance of the Bank of England as evidence of a decelerating UK labor market instills prudence in investors. The spotlight now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, which may inject some fresh signals into the direction of the pair. GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3700 as the weaker US Dollar, fueled by Fed uncertainty and weak economic data, dominates. Market attention now turns to the US PCE inflation figure, which may dictate expectations of future Fed policy actions. • GBP/USD at 1.3735, remaining positive territory in Friday morning Asian trading. • US Dollar loses ground amidst fears of the Fed’s autonomy and leadership change. • Trump’s comments on selecting a new Fed Chair stoke market speculation regarding prior rate reductions. • US GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, which was worse than forecast -0.2%, further depressing the USD. • BoE leaves interest rates steady at 4.25%, but dovish remarks suggest future reductions. • UK labor market is weakening, adding to caution over the Pound’s upside. • Friday’s US PCE inflation reading may propel the next major movement in GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is drawing increasing attention as overall market mood continues to support the Pound versus the US Dollar. Increased doubts regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy have been at the forefront after previous President Donald Trump expressed that he might name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell earlier than anticipated. This has put uncertainty on the market, with investors keenly observing how this could impact future monetary policy direction. To this view was added the recent US GDP data that recorded a sharper-than-projected decline, which is causing worry over the overall state of the US economy. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView For their part, policymakers at the Bank of England have taken a very dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey last week spoke about evidence of a softening labor market and hinted at the possibility of the trend of declining interest rates persisting. While the central bank left rates unchanged at its last meeting, there was internal dissent with three of the nine members voting to cut the rate. These contradictory signals on both sides of the Atlantic are maintaining investors wary, with most waiting for Friday’s US PCE inflation data release for more explicit policy guidance ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a bullish tone as it trades well above the 1.3700 psychological support level, hinting at continuous buying demand. The duo is comfortably supported by an ascending short-term trendline, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in the top half of their scale, reflecting strength in the rise. A break above the near-term resistance around 1.3750 could pave the way for further upside towards the 1.3800 area. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3700 could indicate waning momentum and bring in the next support zone around 1.3650. FORECAST If the US PCE inflation data later this week turns out to be softer-than-anticipated, it would add strength to market expectations of premature Federal Reserve rate cuts and further weaken the US Dollar. This would be likely to find support for sustained GB/USD upside, particularly if UK economy sentiment is relatively robust. A firm push past the 1.3750 resistance level may take the pair towards 1.3800 and beyond, as bulls gain strength on the back of softer US economic data and political turmoil around the Fed’s next leadership. Conversely, if the US PCE data surprises positively, it will stymie rate cut hopes, and could lend near-term support to the US Dollar. This could result in a pullback in GBP/USD, particularly if dovish comments from the Bank of England remain a drag on the Pound. A fall below the 1.3700 support level could reveal more downside to 1.3650 or even 1.3600, especially if risk appetite turns defensive or better US data brings renewed confidence in the Greenback.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Dips Below 1.3400 on US-Iran Tensions Fueled Safe-Haven Demand for Dollar

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  • June 23, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) fell sharply against the US Dollar (USD), dropping below the 1.3400 level as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran surged. The weekend US military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered a dash for safety, fueling demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. Despite upbeat UK flash PMI data showing stronger-than-expected growth in business activity, market sentiment remained risk-averse. The situation worsened as Iran threatened retaliation and considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding to global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors await key US PMI data and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing tensions between the US and Iran, such as possible retaliation and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, can continue to push safe-haven flows towards the US Dollar. • In spite of better-than-forecast UK flash PMI readings, the Pound continues to come under pressure; subsequent data releases might find it difficult to change sentiment without geopolitical calm. • Converging signals from the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve, with the dovish tilt from the latter, will drive GBP/USD in the near term. • The pair has key support at 1.3250 and resistance at 1.3630, with a fall below the 20-day EMA indicating a bearish near-term trend. Pound Sterling continues to soften versus the US Dollar, dropping below 1.3400 as the increase in US-Iran tensions boosts safe-haven demand. Risk-averse mood in the market was strengthened by an unexpected US airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites, with the rise in concerns over regional stability and global oil supply interferences. The GBP is still under pressure despite the UK’s reporting of better-than-anticipated flash PMI numbers for June. With Iran warning of retaliation and talking of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical uncertainty dominates economic indicators. Traders are waiting for US PMI data and other signals from the Federal Reserve regarding possible rate cuts, which may define the next steps for the GBP/USD pair. The Pound Sterling fell to below 1.3400 against the US Dollar amidst increased US-Iran tensions and flight to safe-haven assets. In spite of positive UK PMI readings, geopolitical uncertainties still weigh on the GBP. Investors now look towards forthcoming US PMI readings and Fed policy cues for more guidance. • GBP/USD dipped below 1.3400 amidst increasing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. • Demand for US Dollar rose as investors favored safe-haven assets. • US military attack on Iran nuclear facilities triggered risk aversion in global markets. • Iran retaliated threat and threatened to close Strait of Hormuz, a potential oil supply disruption. • UK flash PMI report topped expectations, with improved business activity. • Bank of England continued dovish tone, with gradual rate-cut forward guidance. • Fed Governor Waller signaled July rate cuts, putting pressure on USD gains if acted upon. Rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States have provoked a change in global market sentiment that has forced investors into safe-haven investments such as the US Dollar. The Pound Sterling has been under strain as markets absorb the information of the US airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear sites—an operation that has significantly increased fears of reprisals and additional unrest in the Middle East. Iran’s reaction, a threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, brings yet more risk into global energy supply chains, further unnerving investors and shifting attention away from the release of economic data.  GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Elsewhere, in the United Kingdom, publication of positive flash PMI numbers for June revealed strength in both manufacturing and services sectors, with the Composite PMI improving more strongly than anticipated. Even so, this upbeat economic growth has done nothing to support the Pound as wider geopolitical fears dominate. The Bank of England’s prudent monetary easing also confirms a wait-and-see policy as greater external threats come from increasing energy costs and worldwide tensions. Traders are keeping close watch on future US economic releases and other happenings in the Middle East to watch what the market does next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bearish bias, as it is trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is standing at about 1.3477. This reflects ongoing downward pressure against the Pound Sterling. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the neutral 50 level, reflecting no dominant direction but rather a slightly bearish stance. To the downside, support is close to the May 16 low at 1.3250, which may serve as a key floor if the pair keeps falling. To the upside, resistance is visible close to the multi-year high of 1.3630, a level that needs to be broken to indicate a trend reversal. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions start to ease and risk mood improves, the Pound Sterling could gain some ground against the US Dollar. A resolution or de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could lead to safe-haven demand for the Dollar diminishing, enabling GBP/USD to recover. On the other hand, if future US economic data falls short or the Federal Reserve indicates a more drastic rate-cut trajectory during July, the US Dollar will lose strength, resulting in upward momentum for the pair. Under such circumstances, the GBP/USD can aim for levels of resistance at 1.3477 and possibly hit the 1.3600 level if upbeat momentum is maintained. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East get worse or Iran strikes back, risk aversion in the market can intensify, driving demand for the US Dollar even higher and moving GBP/USD lower. A possible disruption in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz can also spur global inflation concerns, making the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal even stronger. Moreover, any hints of UK economic slowdown or dovish Bank of England cues would enhance bearish pressure. In such an event, the pair could test 1.3250 support, with a breach below risking a slide to 1.3100 as the next major downside target.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Firm Near Multi-Year High In Anticipation of Pivotal Fed and BoE Policy Announcements

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  • June 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair remains firm above mid-1.3500s as investors wait for pivotal economic events, such as the UK CPI data and the forthcoming monetary policy announcements of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While dovish BoE hopes and recent weaker UK economic figures press on the British Pound, the US Dollar is also capped by increasing speculation of a September Fed rate cut. With recent mixed fundamentals and increased market risk aversion, the pair remains in a tight range, as investors hold back from taking firm positions in anticipation of such significant risk events. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be carefully observed for guidance on the BoE’s future policy action. A lower print would reinforce rate cut bets. • Market attention remains on whether the BoE hints at a rate cut trajectory in light of recent developments of economic slowdown in the UK. • Any dovish message or confirmation of a September rate cut can pressure the USD and underpin GBP/USD. • Continued Middle East tensions and global trade uncertainties could drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is stuck in a range above the mid-1.3500s as traders prepare for a week of high-impact economic events. The next UK inflation figures and the Bank of England’s policy meeting should provide pivotal guidance for the British Pound, particularly in light of rising bets on a rate cut in light of soft economic data. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision will dictate the near-term direction of the US Dollar, which has come under pressure from anticipation of September easing. With mixed signals and general geopolitical worries, market participants are being cautious, holding the pair in a narrow trading range. GBP/USD hovers in a tight range over the mid-1.3500s as markets wait for the UK CPI and central bank action. BoE rate reduction hopes and dovish Fed sentiment keep both USD and GBP action contained. Traders sit on the sidelines in anticipation of significant event risks this week. • GBP/USD maintains its position above mid-1.3500s, without apparent intraday direction. • The pair is close to a three-year high, consistent with recent GBP strength. • Wednesday’s UK CPI data will be an important guide for BoE policy expectations. • BoE is likely to turn dovish in the face of dismal UK economic statistics. • Fed policy announcement on Wednesday can influence USD action heavily. • Market is expecting a possible Fed rate cut by September, capping USD advances. • Increasing Middle East tensions underpin USD’s safe-haven demand but limit volatility. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation as investors wait for a string of important economic events this week. Market participants are most keenly interested in the publication of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) figures and the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, both of which should give important clues about the direction of interest rates in the UK. Recent evidence of UK economic contraction has grown speculation on the BoE’s potential to cut policy stance ahead of schedule, shaping sentiment towards the British Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, the US Federal Reserve policy release is also under scrutiny, as market players seek directions regarding when possible rate cuts would be implemented later in the year. Although the US Dollar is held up by safe-haven appetite amidst geopolitical risks, hopes that the Fed would shift towards more accommodative policies are holding back aggressive bullish pressure. The overall market is reflecting a defensive tone as traders hold back from placing big bets until there is greater clarity from these crucial central bank events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a very tight consolidation range just above the mid-1.3500s with a lack of strong momentum. The pair is still near its recent multi-year high, reflecting underlying bullishness, but the failure to break suggests indecision on the part of traders. Support is near the 1.3550 level and resistance near the recent high at 1.3600. A continued advance above this resistance would potentially set the stage for more upside, while a breakdown below support may indicate short-term weakness in front of the Fed and BoE announcements. FORECAST If the coming UK CPI data suprises to the higher side or the Bank of England takes a less dovish tone than anticipated, the British Pound might pick up speed. Moreover, anything the Federal Reserve suggests that there is a longer horizon before rate cuts would act to reinforce GBP/USD upside as well. Under these circumstances, the pair may break through recent highs and aim for levels above 1.3600, provided global risk sentiment should revive. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK inflation reading or definite indications of future rate reductions by the BoE will heavily burden the Pound. Should the Fed hold a relatively aggressive stance or geopolitical tensions escalate, US Dollar demand might be elevated, pushing GBP/USD down. A breach of the 1.3550 support will potentially usher in further losses towards the 1.3500 psychological level and maybe even lower.

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