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GBP/USD Falls as Robust US Data Dull Fed Rate Cut Expectations, Sterling Weakens Despite Supportive UK Jobs Data

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  • July 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair fell to 1.3408 in the North American session as better-than-forecasted American economic news boosted the demand for the Dollar and squashed expectations of a soon Federal Reserve rate cut. U.S. unemployment claims dropped to 221K, while retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, both better than predicted and supporting the Fed’s reluctance to ease policy. Hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler contributed to the Dollar’s strength. The UK labor market cooled but not as swiftly as anticipated, providing little encouragement for the Pound. Consequently, Sterling continued to underperform amidst conflicting economic indicators and central bank forecasts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Improved-than-expected jobless claims and retail sales figures favor the US Dollar and lower the chances of a Fed rate cut in the short term. • Hawkish comments from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler indicate interest rates could stay constant despite inflationary fears, particularly from tariffs. • The UK’s more sluggish-than-anticipated cooling in its labor market did not offer sterling any meaningful support, which left GBP/USD vulnerable. • GBP/USD is heading towards crucial support levels at 1.3373, with more downside potential towards 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA of 1.3278 if negative momentum persists. The GBP/USD currency pair was subjected to fresh selling pressure after the release of a robust set of U.S. economic data, which provided added impetus to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on cutting interest rates. With unemployment claims declining to 221K and retail sales increasing 0.6% in June, the numbers hinted at ongoing economic strength in the U.S., further pushing up the Greenback to new monthly highs. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s dovish comments further bolstered the Dollar as she highlighted maintaining rates at current levels in the face of tariff-driven inflation. Conversely, the UK labor market only moderately indicated a slowdown, which was not enough to prop up the Pound, and GBP/USD continued trading around weekly lows at the 1.3400 level. GBP/USD fell to 1.3408 as impressive U.S. jobless claims and retail sales figures boosted the Greenback and dampened rate cut speculation. Aggressive Fed commentary put additional pressure on Sterling, as it struggled even with a relatively resilient UK labor release. • GBP/USD went down to 1.3408 after robust US data boosted the Dollar in the North American session. • US Jobless Claims fell to 221K, better than the predicted 235K, indicating a healthy employment scenario. • June Retail Sales climbed 0.6%, much greater than the predicted 0.1%, bolstering economic strength. • Fed Governor Kugler indicated no hurry to reduce rates, pointing to inflationary pressures and firm jobs. • UK labor data showed slower-than-expected cooling, with the Claimant Count Change at 25.9K. • Sterling remained pressured, unable to gain momentum despite less negative domestic data. • Technical bias remains neutral-to-bearish, with key support at 1.3373 and resistance near the 50-day SMA at 1.3500. The GBP/USD exchange rate reacted to the latest round of economic data, with the U.S. Dollar strengthens after strong performance in jobless claims and retail spending. The initial jobless claims fell more than anticipated, and consumer expenditure witnessed strong growth during June—both indicators that the U.S. economy is still strong. These occurrences, combined with the recent inflation numbers, led investors to re-evaluate the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler echoed this view by asserting that monetary policy is likely to stay stable for the time being considering continued price pressures. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The UK labor market statistics, on the other hand, presented a moderate level of strength, where there was a less-than-anticipated increase in unemployment benefit claims. Nonetheless, the British Pound had little support since broader market sentiment was positive towards the Dollar. Political clarity within the U.S. also came into play, with fears surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s employment status being dismissed by President Trump, taking away one layer of uncertainty. Focus now turns to forthcoming central bank commentary as well as other economic data that can shape currency interactions between the Pound and the Dollar. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has a neutral-to-bearish bias since it is trading close to the lower boundary of its recent range at 1.3400. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows persistent bearish momentum that implies that sellers are still in charge notwithstanding sporadic buying interest. To turn the outlook bullish, the pair would have to retake the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3500. Failing that may create room for further losses, with short-term support at 1.3373 followed by the psychological level of 1.3300 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3278. FORECAST On the other hand, in case of increased bullish momentum, GBP/USD may try to recover towards the 1.3485 level, which was the recent two-day high. A breakout above this resistance could set the stage for a challenge of the 50-day SMA near 1.3500, a key level that may confirm a change in short-term sentiment. Continued advances above this area could prompt additional gains toward 1.3570 and possibly 1.3620, if further supporting UK data or dovish turns from the Fed favor the Pound. On the negative side, sustained Dollar strength and tight Fed policy expectations could drive GBP/USD below near-term support at 1.3373. A breakdown below here would risk further losses down to the 1.3300 psychological level. Should selling continue, the pair could fall further down to the 100-day SMA at 1.3278, with further downside targets at 1.3200 not precluded in a bearish environment.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Struggles Near Multi-Week Low Ahead of Sensitive US CPI Data: Bearish Momentum Picks Up

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  • July 15, 2025
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GBP/USD pair is trading in close bearish consolidation in the area of 1.3430, just above a multi-week low, while waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Downside pressure on the pair increases due to low UK macroeconomic data and increasing expectations of an August Bank of England rate cut. Conversely, the US Dollar continues to remain fairly supported with dwindling hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate reduction. Technically, the fall below the 100-period SMA confirms bearish expectations, although oversold conditions in RSI can expect intraday bounces prior to the resumption of the pair’s declining trend. KEY LOOKOUTS • A strong reading may be bullish for the USD and further weaken GBP/USD; a weak print could offer temporary relief for the pair. • Bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England in August continue to be high, further boosting the bearish sentiment against the Pound. • The attempts at recovery are expected to encounter stiff resistance around 1.3470 and the psychological 1.3500 level. • Sustained price action below the 1.3400 level is expected to trigger new selling, subjecting the pair to targets on the downside such as 1.3355 and 1.3300. GBP/USD currency pair continues to trade around its multi-week low at around the 1.3430 level, supporting the timid sentiment from the traders in view of the vital US CPI release. Market mood is still bearish due to weak UK economic figures and increasing speculation over an August Bank of England rate cut against the backdrop of more cautious Fed on easing. While the US Dollar has drawn back from recent highs, any rally in GBP/USD will be capped by technical resistance in the 1.3470–1.3500 area. Overall, the bias remains to the downside unless inflation data causes a change of direction. GBP/USD is trading close to a multi-week low of 1.3430 as the market waits for US CPI numbers. Bearishness remains after poor UK data and increasing BoE rate cutting expectations. Upside is contained below 1.3500, and new downside risks only below 1.3400. • GBP/USD is in a bearish consolidation close to the 1.3430 mark, just above a multi-week low. • Market participants are wary before the crucial US CPI numbers, which may impact the Fed’s rate expectations. • Soft UK macroeconomic figures bolster the argument that the BoE might cut rates in August. • Disagreement between policy expectations for the BoE and Fed puts additional pressure on the Pound. • The pair has just broken below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hourly chart, a negative technical warning. • RSI is oversold, which implies possible short-term intraday bounces. • The key support is 1.3400, with the following downside targets being 1.3355, 1.3300, and 1.3265. The GBP/USD currency pair is in pressure at present as traders wait for the release of the most recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. General sentiment remains defensive, with investors not wanting to make big bets before they know the way US inflation is headed, which would have implications for the Federal Reserve’s next course of action. Meanwhile, the British Pound remains under headwinds as a result of a weaker economic performance within the UK, in the aftermath of a series of disappointing releases on data, which furthered the expectations of an August rate cut by the Bank of England. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView This difference in monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has been behind a fundamentally bearish environment for GBP/USD. Whilst the Fed is likely to keep its finger on the rate hike trigger, the BoE is coming under increasing pressure to relax monetary conditions to prop up the UK economy. Consequently, market sentiment is still against the Pound, and traders are watching both economic data and central bank rhetoric from both the Atlantic and the Atlantic’s eastern seaboard very closely. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD recently fell below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour time frame, indicating a bearish trend in momentum. In spite of the downward pressure, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently stuck in oversold region, suggesting the possibility of short-term consolidation or slight bounce. Yet, any bounce is expected to encounter stiff resistance around the 1.3470–1.3500 zone, which might limit gains and keep the pair in selling pressure. A firm break below 1.3400 would most probably seal further losses, with the possibility of greater losses to come. FORECAST Should the coming US CPI data underwhelm and precipitate an across-the-board decline in the US Dollar, GBP/USD may experience an interim rebound. Early resistance should be at 1.3470, with a crossing of this line having a good chance of propelling the pair to the psychological 1.3500 barrier. Persistent force there could induce a short-covering rally with additional upside targets at 1.3550 and, potentially, 1.3600–1.3625, depending on market and momentum factors. To the downside, a clear break of the 1.3400 support area would most probably consolidate the bearish trend. In that event, GBP/USD might accelerate lower to 1.3355, with more losses hitting the 1.3300 mark. A further drop may even stretch to the 100-day Simple Moving Average, which is currently at around the 1.3265 area, as the market reacts to the increasing divergence between BoE and Fed policy expectations.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Climbs on Uncertainty Over US Tariffs and BoE Warnings on Economic Risk

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  • July 10, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) rose against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading around 1.3600, as investor mood remained nervous with increasing uncertainty over US trade talks and fresh retaliatory tariffs that are scheduled to go into effect on August 1. Notwithstanding warnings issued by the Bank of England (BoE) regarding large economic dangers—such as geopolitical tensions, an increase in national debt, and poor business sentiment—the British currency got some respite. The US Dollar, meanwhile, lost a bit of ground as markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone in its June meeting minutes, which signaled possible rate cuts if tariff-induced inflation stays in check. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets are keeping a close eye on whether the US clinches trade agreements with important partners such as China, the Eurozone, Canada, and Mexico prior to the onset of new reciprocal tariffs. •  The UK’s monthly factory output and GDP for May are awaited by investors, with GDP predicted to bounce back by 0.1% following April’s 0.3% decline. •  Warnings by the Bank of England regarding escalating geopolitical tensions, a fractured global marketplace, and rising sovereign debt will also impact investor sentiment towards the Pound. •  FOMC minutes indicate potential interest rate reductions this year, depending on the trajectory of tariff-induced inflation, which can continue to put pressure on the US Dollar. The Pound Sterling rose against the US Dollar on Thursday to trade around the 1.3600 level as market players reacted to a combination of economic and geopolitical events. Investor attention was on rising trade tensions, with the US scheduled to levy new retaliatory tariffs on 21 countries from August 1, adding volatility to worldwide markets and exerting pressure on the US Dollar. In spite of the Bank of England’s warning report flagging high economic risks like geopolitics instability, increased national debt, and muted business investment sentiment, the Pound firmed up. Dealers are also looking forward to future UK GDP and factory production figures, as the dovish policy bias from the Federal Reserve added weight to further weaken the Greenback. The Pound Sterling hovers at 1.3600 against the US Dollar in increasing uncertainty about US trade policy and impending reciprocal tariffs. Even as the Bank of England cautions rising economic threats, the GBP remains firm while investors hold out for pivotal UK economic reports and news of international trade talks. • GBP/USD hovers near 1.3600 as the Pound slightly improves during Thursday’s European session. • US dollar falls on uncertainty surrounding future reciprocal tariffs that will kick in on August 1. • Bank of England issues a warning over economic threats, such as geopolitical tensions, increasing sovereign debt, and poor business morale. • British factory and GDP data for May are expected; GDP is expected to increase by 0.1% following a reduction in April. • US President Trump announces 50% tariffs on copper imports and new trade measures with 21 countries. • FOMC minutes reveal ambivalent sentiment with two members of the Fed supporting interest rate cuts in July. • Technical indicators hint at a neutral trend with RSI around 50 and price around the 20-day EMA. The Pound Sterling was stable against the US Dollar on Thursday as market focus continued to be on international trade updates and UK economic risks. The British currency remained resilient in spite of a conservative mid-year Financial Policy Committee (FPC) report from the Bank of England, cautioning of increasing risks to the UK economy. The report also noted risks like geopolitical tension, disintegration of global trade, stress on sovereign debt, and low investment sentiment. These risks, says the FPC, threaten financial stability and may have implications for future economic growth. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, in the United States, the trade landscape continued to evolve as President Trump announced new reciprocal tariffs affecting 21 nations, including major partners like Japan and South Korea. These tariffs are set to take effect on August 1 and are part of a broader push for more favorable trade terms. Though trade deals with the UK and Vietnam have been agreed, those with other important partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the Eurozone are uncertain. The threat of escalating trade tensions is making global markets tread carefully, as investors seek clear signals on the direction of international trade relationships. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair is moving near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3590, reflecting a neutral short-term trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around the 50.00 mark, indicating a lack of significant momentum in either direction. A fall below the important psychological support level of 1.3500 may indicate fresh selling pressure, and a strong break above 1.3700 may set the stage for further advances towards the multi-year high around 1.3800. Overall, the duo seems to be in the process of consolidation, waiting for new catalysts for directional action. FORECAST If there are positive breakthroughs in US trade talks, especially with major partners such as China, Canada, and the Eurozone, investor appetite for risk would grow, weakening the US Dollar and boosting the Pound Sterling. Also, better-than-forecast UK GDP and factory production statistics would improve faith in the British economy, hopefully driving GBP/USD to resistance points at about 1.3700 and, if the rally is sustained, as high as the three-and-a-half-year peak around 1.3800. Conversely, if the US is unable to secure trade agreements prior to the August 1 tariff deadline, global trade tensions may escalate sharply, supporting the safe-haven US Dollar. In addition, if future UK economic data is disappointing or concern regarding increasing national debt and geopolitical risks accelerates, the GBP might be pressured. A fall below the 1.3500 psychological support point may lead to further losses towards the next significant point at 1.3400.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Plummets on UK Political Crisis and Rumor of Reeves’ Departure; US Jobs Report, Trump Tax Bill Delay Contribute to Volatility

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  • July 2, 2025
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The British Pound plunged against the US Dollar, falling close to 170 pips as political crisis shook UK markets. Speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves would be ousted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a rebellion among Labour MPs that compelled the alteration of a flagship welfare bill erased £5 billion worth of expected cost savings, driving 10-year Gilt yields to the highest level since the 2022 Truss-era crisis. At the same time, in the US, a shocking -33K ADP-reported job loss and Donald Trump’s stalled tax reform bill added more pressure on market sentiment. As much as GBP/USD dropped to a six-day low, technical indicators point towards limited downside unless the pair breaks through key supports. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market attention is on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer will replace Chancellor Rachel Reeves as internal Labour dissent mounts. • 10-year Gilt yields surged to 4.68%, indicating investor concern regarding fiscal soundness in the wake of the £5B welfare bill reversal. • ADP report revealed the unexpected loss of 33K private sector jobs, which ignited questions regarding the US labor market’s resilience. • The timing of Trump’s vote on the significant tax bill remains unclear, and changing US-Vietnam trade dynamics introduce a new dimension to world trade sentiment. The GBP/USD currency pair fell sharply as political chaos in the UK intensifies, with the British Pound falling more than 170 pips as rumors intensify that Chancellor Rachel Reeves might be ousted from office by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The market responded vigorously to a rebellion by Labour MPs that compelled the government to drop the welfare reform bill, removing £5 billion of anticipated savings and sending 10-year Gilt yields to post-Truss highs of 4.68%. At the same time, US economic indicators fueled volatility, as the ADP report showed an unexpected decline of 33K private sector jobs in June. On top of that, worries regarding a postponement of former President Donald Trump’s proposed tax reform bill and an announcement of a new trade agreement with Vietnam contributed to unease on global markets. GBP/USD plummeted more than 170 pips as UK political uncertainties shook investor confidence due to gossip surrounding Chancellor Reeves’ fate. Rising gilt yields and a shocking US job loss contributed to market uncertainty. Market participants now look forward to Starmer’s actions and future fiscal indications. • GBP/USD plunged over 170 pips to settle at 1.3562 on account of UK political uncertainty. • Gossip increases that PM Keir Starmer might replace Chancellor Rachel Reeves. • A Labour MP revolt pushed changes to the welfare bill, eliminating £5B in budgeted savings. • UK 10-year Gilt yields jumped to 4.68%, their greatest level since October 2022. • US ADP numbers revealed a surprising -33K loss of jobs in June, shocking markets. • Trump tax reform bill is delayed, with House conservatives calling for revisions. • A new US-Vietnam trade pact was announced, providing for 0% tariffs on US exports. The British Pound was put under heavy stress as political instability intensified in the UK amid heightening speculation that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves might be ousted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This came after a dramatic Labour MP revolt that compelled the government to remove pivotal features of its welfare reform bill, essentially wiping out £5 billion in estimated savings. The internal struggle triggered worries about the government’s financial credibility and economic strategy over the long term, continuing to erode investor confidence. People are now keenly waiting to see what Starmer does next amid doubts hanging over the stability of his team and economic agenda. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Adding to the uncertainty, the United States witnessed a surprising decline in private sector employment, with the ADP report logging a fall of 33,000 jobs in June. In the meantime, political tensions in Washington stalled action on former President Donald Trump’s suggested bill on tax reform, popularly referred to as “One Big Beautiful Bill.” House Republican conservatives expressed worries about the bill being ready enough, causing its vote to go beyond the anticipated July 4 deadline. In another development, Trump also broke news of an improved trade agreement with Vietnam, subjecting US exports to 0% tariffs and imposing substantial duties on Vietnamese imports. These events are contributing to international economic anxiety, adding to the pressure on currencies such as the Pound. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD dipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.3590 and traded a six-day low at 1.3562 briefly before narrowing to slightly above the 1.3600 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell aggressively from approximately 65 to 54, reflecting diminishing bullish momentum but not yet indicating oversold conditions. Unless the pair stays above the important 1.3560 support level, the general uptrend will continue to remain in force. The consistent break above 1.3650 may expose the price to a test of the 1.3700 level, whereas a failure to support at 1.3600 will lead to a short-term consolidation between 1.3560 and 1.3650. FORECAST If political volatility subsides and the UK government offers clear fiscal direction, GBP/USD can bounce back. A clear break above 1.3650 might gain bullish interest, thus pushing the pair towards the 1.3700 resistance level. Strong news like Chancellor Reeves holding onto her role, passage of important economic bills, or better UK economic data would also enhance investor optimism and a stronger Pound in the short run. But if political turbulence continues to grow or there is a change of Chancellor Reeves, markets will read this as a sign of leadership weakening, further pressuring the Pound. A drop below the 1.3560 support point would push prices further down toward 1.3500 or lower. Also, if future US data continues to strengthen the Dollar or Trump’s trade and tax policies trigger additional market responses, GBP/USD’s downside risks could become even deeper.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Holds Steady Above 1.3700 as Markets Wait for Critical US PCE Inflation Report

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  • June 27, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair holds a strong position above the level of 1.3700 in Friday’s Asian trading session, quote near 1.3735 as the Pound is supported by market sentiment over a weakening US Dollar. The Greenback is still under selling pressure in light of speculation surrounding the future autonomy of the Federal Reserve, particularly following the suggestion of former President Donald Trump of making a premature choice for the next Fed Chair, building anticipation of more rapid-than-expected US rate cuts. Also, less than impressive US GDP numbers, highlighting a deeper-than-projected 0.5% decline in Q1, have further hampered the USD. While the Pound is supported, dovish Bank of England signals can cap the upside for GBP/USD, as investors look ahead to the coming US PCE inflation data for clearer guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • An important guide for future Fed policy; better-than-expected data could underpin the USD, with poor data underpinning rate cut chances. • Trump’s words on selecting the next Fed Chair could impact USD sentiment and investor confidence in the independence of the Fed. • The deeper-than-anticipated 0.5% Q1 GDP drop reinforces worries regarding the strength of the US economy, pushing down the Greenback. • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments on a weakening labor market and possible rate reductions could cap gains in the Pound. GBP/USD currency pair is trading on a higher ground above the 1.3700 level, underpinned by a weakening US Dollar due to increasing fears about the Federal Reserve’s autonomy and increasing prospects of premature rate cuts. Remarks made by former President Donald Trump regarding choosing the next Fed Chair shortly have created heightened speculation regarding the Fed’s policy direction, further bearing down on the Greenback. At the same time, a deeper-than-anticipated US GDP contraction has provided further pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the potential upside for the Pound can be limited by the dovish stance of the Bank of England as evidence of a decelerating UK labor market instills prudence in investors. The spotlight now shifts to the US PCE inflation report, which may inject some fresh signals into the direction of the pair. GBP/USD holds firm above 1.3700 as the weaker US Dollar, fueled by Fed uncertainty and weak economic data, dominates. Market attention now turns to the US PCE inflation figure, which may dictate expectations of future Fed policy actions. • GBP/USD at 1.3735, remaining positive territory in Friday morning Asian trading. • US Dollar loses ground amidst fears of the Fed’s autonomy and leadership change. • Trump’s comments on selecting a new Fed Chair stoke market speculation regarding prior rate reductions. • US GDP contracted 0.5% in Q1, which was worse than forecast -0.2%, further depressing the USD. • BoE leaves interest rates steady at 4.25%, but dovish remarks suggest future reductions. • UK labor market is weakening, adding to caution over the Pound’s upside. • Friday’s US PCE inflation reading may propel the next major movement in GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is drawing increasing attention as overall market mood continues to support the Pound versus the US Dollar. Increased doubts regarding the Federal Reserve’s autonomy have been at the forefront after previous President Donald Trump expressed that he might name a replacement for Chair Jerome Powell earlier than anticipated. This has put uncertainty on the market, with investors keenly observing how this could impact future monetary policy direction. To this view was added the recent US GDP data that recorded a sharper-than-projected decline, which is causing worry over the overall state of the US economy. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView For their part, policymakers at the Bank of England have taken a very dovish stance. Governor Andrew Bailey last week spoke about evidence of a softening labor market and hinted at the possibility of the trend of declining interest rates persisting. While the central bank left rates unchanged at its last meeting, there was internal dissent with three of the nine members voting to cut the rate. These contradictory signals on both sides of the Atlantic are maintaining investors wary, with most waiting for Friday’s US PCE inflation data release for more explicit policy guidance ahead. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a bullish tone as it trades well above the 1.3700 psychological support level, hinting at continuous buying demand. The duo is comfortably supported by an ascending short-term trendline, with momentum indicators like the RSI remaining in the top half of their scale, reflecting strength in the rise. A break above the near-term resistance around 1.3750 could pave the way for further upside towards the 1.3800 area. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3700 could indicate waning momentum and bring in the next support zone around 1.3650. FORECAST If the US PCE inflation data later this week turns out to be softer-than-anticipated, it would add strength to market expectations of premature Federal Reserve rate cuts and further weaken the US Dollar. This would be likely to find support for sustained GB/USD upside, particularly if UK economy sentiment is relatively robust. A firm push past the 1.3750 resistance level may take the pair towards 1.3800 and beyond, as bulls gain strength on the back of softer US economic data and political turmoil around the Fed’s next leadership. Conversely, if the US PCE data surprises positively, it will stymie rate cut hopes, and could lend near-term support to the US Dollar. This could result in a pullback in GBP/USD, particularly if dovish comments from the Bank of England remain a drag on the Pound. A fall below the 1.3700 support level could reveal more downside to 1.3650 or even 1.3600, especially if risk appetite turns defensive or better US data brings renewed confidence in the Greenback.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Dips Below 1.3400 on US-Iran Tensions Fueled Safe-Haven Demand for Dollar

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  • June 23, 2025
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Pound Sterling (GBP) fell sharply against the US Dollar (USD), dropping below the 1.3400 level as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran surged. The weekend US military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered a dash for safety, fueling demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. Despite upbeat UK flash PMI data showing stronger-than-expected growth in business activity, market sentiment remained risk-averse. The situation worsened as Iran threatened retaliation and considered closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding to global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, investors await key US PMI data and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts. KEY LOOKOUTS • Increasing tensions between the US and Iran, such as possible retaliation and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, can continue to push safe-haven flows towards the US Dollar. • In spite of better-than-forecast UK flash PMI readings, the Pound continues to come under pressure; subsequent data releases might find it difficult to change sentiment without geopolitical calm. • Converging signals from the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve, with the dovish tilt from the latter, will drive GBP/USD in the near term. • The pair has key support at 1.3250 and resistance at 1.3630, with a fall below the 20-day EMA indicating a bearish near-term trend. Pound Sterling continues to soften versus the US Dollar, dropping below 1.3400 as the increase in US-Iran tensions boosts safe-haven demand. Risk-averse mood in the market was strengthened by an unexpected US airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites, with the rise in concerns over regional stability and global oil supply interferences. The GBP is still under pressure despite the UK’s reporting of better-than-anticipated flash PMI numbers for June. With Iran warning of retaliation and talking of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical uncertainty dominates economic indicators. Traders are waiting for US PMI data and other signals from the Federal Reserve regarding possible rate cuts, which may define the next steps for the GBP/USD pair. The Pound Sterling fell to below 1.3400 against the US Dollar amidst increased US-Iran tensions and flight to safe-haven assets. In spite of positive UK PMI readings, geopolitical uncertainties still weigh on the GBP. Investors now look towards forthcoming US PMI readings and Fed policy cues for more guidance. • GBP/USD dipped below 1.3400 amidst increasing US-Iran geopolitical tensions. • Demand for US Dollar rose as investors favored safe-haven assets. • US military attack on Iran nuclear facilities triggered risk aversion in global markets. • Iran retaliated threat and threatened to close Strait of Hormuz, a potential oil supply disruption. • UK flash PMI report topped expectations, with improved business activity. • Bank of England continued dovish tone, with gradual rate-cut forward guidance. • Fed Governor Waller signaled July rate cuts, putting pressure on USD gains if acted upon. Rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States have provoked a change in global market sentiment that has forced investors into safe-haven investments such as the US Dollar. The Pound Sterling has been under strain as markets absorb the information of the US airstrikes against three Iranian nuclear sites—an operation that has significantly increased fears of reprisals and additional unrest in the Middle East. Iran’s reaction, a threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, brings yet more risk into global energy supply chains, further unnerving investors and shifting attention away from the release of economic data.  GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Elsewhere, in the United Kingdom, publication of positive flash PMI numbers for June revealed strength in both manufacturing and services sectors, with the Composite PMI improving more strongly than anticipated. Even so, this upbeat economic growth has done nothing to support the Pound as wider geopolitical fears dominate. The Bank of England’s prudent monetary easing also confirms a wait-and-see policy as greater external threats come from increasing energy costs and worldwide tensions. Traders are keeping close watch on future US economic releases and other happenings in the Middle East to watch what the market does next. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bearish bias, as it is trading below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is standing at about 1.3477. This reflects ongoing downward pressure against the Pound Sterling. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the neutral 50 level, reflecting no dominant direction but rather a slightly bearish stance. To the downside, support is close to the May 16 low at 1.3250, which may serve as a key floor if the pair keeps falling. To the upside, resistance is visible close to the multi-year high of 1.3630, a level that needs to be broken to indicate a trend reversal. FORECAST If geopolitical tensions start to ease and risk mood improves, the Pound Sterling could gain some ground against the US Dollar. A resolution or de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could lead to safe-haven demand for the Dollar diminishing, enabling GBP/USD to recover. On the other hand, if future US economic data falls short or the Federal Reserve indicates a more drastic rate-cut trajectory during July, the US Dollar will lose strength, resulting in upward momentum for the pair. Under such circumstances, the GBP/USD can aim for levels of resistance at 1.3477 and possibly hit the 1.3600 level if upbeat momentum is maintained. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East get worse or Iran strikes back, risk aversion in the market can intensify, driving demand for the US Dollar even higher and moving GBP/USD lower. A possible disruption in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz can also spur global inflation concerns, making the Dollar’s safe-haven appeal even stronger. Moreover, any hints of UK economic slowdown or dovish Bank of England cues would enhance bearish pressure. In such an event, the pair could test 1.3250 support, with a breach below risking a slide to 1.3100 as the next major downside target.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Firm Near Multi-Year High In Anticipation of Pivotal Fed and BoE Policy Announcements

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  • June 17, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair remains firm above mid-1.3500s as investors wait for pivotal economic events, such as the UK CPI data and the forthcoming monetary policy announcements of both the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). While dovish BoE hopes and recent weaker UK economic figures press on the British Pound, the US Dollar is also capped by increasing speculation of a September Fed rate cut. With recent mixed fundamentals and increased market risk aversion, the pair remains in a tight range, as investors hold back from taking firm positions in anticipation of such significant risk events. KEY LOOKOUTS • Inflation data will be carefully observed for guidance on the BoE’s future policy action. A lower print would reinforce rate cut bets. • Market attention remains on whether the BoE hints at a rate cut trajectory in light of recent developments of economic slowdown in the UK. • Any dovish message or confirmation of a September rate cut can pressure the USD and underpin GBP/USD. • Continued Middle East tensions and global trade uncertainties could drive safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair is stuck in a range above the mid-1.3500s as traders prepare for a week of high-impact economic events. The next UK inflation figures and the Bank of England’s policy meeting should provide pivotal guidance for the British Pound, particularly in light of rising bets on a rate cut in light of soft economic data. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision will dictate the near-term direction of the US Dollar, which has come under pressure from anticipation of September easing. With mixed signals and general geopolitical worries, market participants are being cautious, holding the pair in a narrow trading range. GBP/USD hovers in a tight range over the mid-1.3500s as markets wait for the UK CPI and central bank action. BoE rate reduction hopes and dovish Fed sentiment keep both USD and GBP action contained. Traders sit on the sidelines in anticipation of significant event risks this week. • GBP/USD maintains its position above mid-1.3500s, without apparent intraday direction. • The pair is close to a three-year high, consistent with recent GBP strength. • Wednesday’s UK CPI data will be an important guide for BoE policy expectations. • BoE is likely to turn dovish in the face of dismal UK economic statistics. • Fed policy announcement on Wednesday can influence USD action heavily. • Market is expecting a possible Fed rate cut by September, capping USD advances. • Increasing Middle East tensions underpin USD’s safe-haven demand but limit volatility. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a period of consolidation as investors wait for a string of important economic events this week. Market participants are most keenly interested in the publication of the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) figures and the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, both of which should give important clues about the direction of interest rates in the UK. Recent evidence of UK economic contraction has grown speculation on the BoE’s potential to cut policy stance ahead of schedule, shaping sentiment towards the British Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView Conversely, the US Federal Reserve policy release is also under scrutiny, as market players seek directions regarding when possible rate cuts would be implemented later in the year. Although the US Dollar is held up by safe-haven appetite amidst geopolitical risks, hopes that the Fed would shift towards more accommodative policies are holding back aggressive bullish pressure. The overall market is reflecting a defensive tone as traders hold back from placing big bets until there is greater clarity from these crucial central bank events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in a very tight consolidation range just above the mid-1.3500s with a lack of strong momentum. The pair is still near its recent multi-year high, reflecting underlying bullishness, but the failure to break suggests indecision on the part of traders. Support is near the 1.3550 level and resistance near the recent high at 1.3600. A continued advance above this resistance would potentially set the stage for more upside, while a breakdown below support may indicate short-term weakness in front of the Fed and BoE announcements. FORECAST If the coming UK CPI data suprises to the higher side or the Bank of England takes a less dovish tone than anticipated, the British Pound might pick up speed. Moreover, anything the Federal Reserve suggests that there is a longer horizon before rate cuts would act to reinforce GBP/USD upside as well. Under these circumstances, the pair may break through recent highs and aim for levels above 1.3600, provided global risk sentiment should revive. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK inflation reading or definite indications of future rate reductions by the BoE will heavily burden the Pound. Should the Fed hold a relatively aggressive stance or geopolitical tensions escalate, US Dollar demand might be elevated, pushing GBP/USD down. A breach of the 1.3550 support will potentially usher in further losses towards the 1.3500 psychological level and maybe even lower.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Under Pressure: Further Declines Possible Amid Weakening Upward Momentum

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  • June 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair is exhibiting symptoms of further weakness as recent price movements indicate a bearish bias. Following the breach below the critical 1.3500 support line and a dip to a low of 1.3458, the Pound is exposed to the US Dollar. Though oversold conditions may restrict near-term downside to a retest of 1.3460, UOB Group analysts warn that a clear breach below 1.3420 would set the stage for further losses. Resistance zones lie at 1.3525 and 1.3555, with the overall bearish bias intact unless GBP/USD rises above the formidable resistance at 1.3580. KEY LOOKOUTS • Support at 1.3460 is immediate, with a stronger level at 1.3420; a break through here could initiate further downside. • Resistance on the upside is capped by 1.3525 and 1.3555, with strong resistance at 1.3580. • Tentative pickup in downward momentum implies sustained bearish bias, notwithstanding present oversold levels. • Continuation of trading below 1.3500 confirms diminishing upward momentum, raising risk of further declines to 1.3420 and lower. GBP/USD currency pair continues to experience selling pressure as recent price action reflects a change towards a bearish trend. Following the breaking of key 1.3500 support level, the pair fell to 1.3458 before slightly rebounding. Although oversold conditions suggest limited near-term downside, analysts caution that a prolonged break below 1.3420 would bring about further decline. On the positive side, resistance points at 1.3525, 1.3555, and the more important barrier at 1.3580 could cap any resulting bounce, preserving the overall bearish bias for the moment. GBP/USD continues to be pressured after falling through the 1.3500 support point, hitting lows around 1.3458. Though oversold markets can inhibit near-term losses, a break below 1.3420 might prompt losses to extend. Most important resistance levels are still 1.3525 and 1.3580. • GBP/USD fell below the pivotal 1.3500 level, its low at 1.3458. • Pair’s current market sentiment is negative. • Levels to watch for support are 1.3460 and 1.3420. • Levels of resistance are located at 1.3525, 1.3555, and 1.3580. • Oversold markets might put a cap on immediate decline, but the bearish momentum continues. • Economic announcements, central bank policy, and world sentiment remain in charge of directing the market. • A drop below 1.3420 would prompt further declines, and a breakout above 1.3580 would reduce selling pressure. The recent activity on GBP/USD mirrors market sentiment shaped by economic releases, central bank actions, and world financial conditions. The Pound Sterling has been responding to changes in investors’ confidence, geopolitical developments, and monetary policy expectations, particularly in terms of interest rate differentials between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Market participants also continue to watch macroeconomic data like inflation, employment, and GDP growth that continue to influence the direction of both currencies. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market mood is also influenced by wider risk drivers such as global trade patterns, geopolitics, and appetite for risk assets on the part of investors. Shifts in these drivers can trigger shifts in currency flows, with traders rebalancing in response. As ever, forthcoming economic data releases and the words of central bankers will be keenly in the spotlight, providing additional insight into the likely direction of GBP/USD over the next several weeks. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD’s decline from recent levels below 1.3500 indicates weakening bullish strength and the onset of a bearish bias. The pair touched 1.3458 briefly, suggesting that sellers are starting to take charge. Although oversold short-term conditions mean some rebound or consolidation might occur, the larger context indicates further downside threats if the pair breaks through the level of major support at 1.3420. Levels of resistance at 1.3525, 1.3555, and particularly 1.3580 are likely to mark any meaningful rally unless robust bullish catalysts are realized. FORECAST If GBP/USD succeeds in regaining the upward trend, a recovery to the resistance levels of 1.3525 and 1.3555 would be observed. A break above these levels may pave the way for another surge towards the stronger resistance at 1.3580. But any rally is set to remain capped until there is a dramatic shift in sentiment or positive economic news in favor of the Pound. On the flip side, the pair is susceptible as long as it holds below the major resistance levels. A short-term retest of the 1.3460 support and a clean break below 1.3420 may speed up selling pressure, potentially leading to a steeper fall. If bearish momentum gains further traction, the next major support would be found further down, which increases the risk of a prolonged downtrend.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Inches Close to 1.3500 as Weak US Dollar and BoE Halt Bets Fuel Sterling

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  • June 2, 2025
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GBP/USD exchange rate starts the week strong, moving nearer to the important 1.3500 level as renewed US Dollar weakness keeps pressures on the pair. The weakening of the USD is fueled by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions after soft PCE inflation readings and rising apprehensions regarding the US fiscal situation, especially in light of President Trump’s recent spending bill. In the meantime, the British Pound gets support from speculation that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates unchanged at its next June meeting. Yet, generalized caution in markets on account of rising geopolitical tensions and new US-China trade uncertainties might restrict the pair’s gains. The market now looks to future US economic news and Fed Chairman Powell’s statements for additional guidance. KEY LOOKOUTS • Market focus will be on near-term US economic releases, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for additional indications about the direction of Fed interest rates. • Expectations of the BoE halting rate cuts at its June 18 gathering remain underpinning the GBP, with central bank guidance being a key variable in shaping GBP/USD sentiment. • Concerns about the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s latest spending budget, and heightened US-China trade tensions can pressure the USD in the short term. • Rising geopolitical tensions—led by Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East—can drive safe-haven demand for the USD and cap gains in GBP/USD even with underlying positive drivers. GBP/USD pair remains volatile to a variety of key factors that can influence its near-term direction. Market players will be keenly watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s forthcoming comments and the newest US macroeconomic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, for cues on the Federal Reserve rate outlook. On the British side, hopes that the Bank of England will leave interest rates unchanged at its June 18 meeting remain behind the support for the Pound. But chronic worries over the US fiscal deficit, fueled by President Trump’s recent spending bill, and escalating tensions in US-China trade relations could further pressure the US Dollar to the downside. Meanwhile, wider risk-off sentiment sourced from the geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East might provide some support to the Greenback, potentially putting a lid on the upside for GBP/USD. The GBP/USD currency pair is supported by hopes of a BoE rate standstill and continued USD weakness fueled by weak US data and fiscal issues. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions and a conservative global risk tone could cap any further appreciation. Traders are now looking to essential US data and Fed commentary for new direction. •  GBP/USD trades around 1.3500, gaining positive momentum in the face of new USD weakness. •  Expectations for Fed rate cut increase after weak PCE inflation data in the US. •  US fiscal worries deepen following President Trump’s spending bill, putting pressure on the Dollar. •   BoE to keep rates steady in its June 18 meeting, favoring GBP strength. •  Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East weigh on global risk appetite. •   US-China trade uncertainty returns after Trump’s remarks, contributing to USD pressure. •   Upcoming US data and Powell’s address are in the spotlight for short-term direction for markets. GBP/USD pair has begun the week on a firm footing, helped by more general weakness in the US Dollar and enhanced confidence in the British Pound. A milder US inflation reading, as expressed through the most recent PCE Price Index, has further fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will choose additional policy loosening in the months ahead. This mood, together with increasing unease regarding the US fiscal situation in the wake of passage of a new government appropriation bill, has further contributed to the downward pressure on the Dollar. In the meantime, the British Pound holds steady, supported by hopes the Bank of England will be less willing to make further cuts in future interest rates, with no near-term moves anticipated at its next policy session. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView All the while, global market sentiment is being influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding US-China trade relations. Recent comments from President Trump, in which he hinted that China might not completely live up to the terms of their trade deal, have also added to investor wariness. Also, all the recent conflicts in places like Eastern Europe and the Middle East still bear down on overall market sentiment. Therefore, investors are remaining close to upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve speeches by officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell, for any signals that might impact policy expectations and currency market trends. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is demonstrating signs of bullish momentum as it slowly inches towards the important psychological resistance around the 1.3500 level. Sustained break above this point may pave the way for further appreciation, with the next resistance at 1.3570–1.3600. On the downside, near-term support is at 1.3420, followed by firmer support at 1.3370, where the buyers may get back in. The overall framework is positive, but a decisive breakout above 1.3500 is required to ensure further uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD pair holds scope for additional upside if prevailing momentum is sustained and the pair is able to achieve a clear breakout above the 1.3500 psychological mark. A change in market sentiment, aided by dovish communications from the Federal Reserve or improved UK economic indicators, could propel the pair to the next level of resistance around 1.3570–1.3600. Moreover, if the Bank of England is reticent about rate cuts while the Fed tends to ease, the policy differences might further favor bullish action in the pair. Conversely, any indication of strength in US economic statistics or even a more aggressive stance at the Fed can revive demand for the US Dollar at the expense of GBP/USD. A failure to hold above the 1.3500 level could trigger a short-term pullback, with initial support at 1.3420, and a further correction feasible towards 1.3370 if bearish momentum takes over. In addition, rising geopolitical tension or

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Eyes Key Levels In Anticipation of US PCE Data; Bulls Ready to Hold Above 1.3500 Even Under USD Pressure

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  • May 30, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair is somewhat lower below the 1.3500 level in wait of the highly awaited US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Against intraday pressure fuelled by a relatively small USD appreciation, the medium-term tone is bullish because market sentiment diverges between the Federal Reserve’s probable cuts in 2025 and the Bank of England’s probable June pause. Technical levels around 1.3425-1.3415 present buy interests, and a fall through key Fibonacci points could provide access to further losses down to 1.3300. To the contrary, a maintained strength of more than 1.3500 would reflect renewed buying momentum, which could take the pair back towards the 1.3600 cap. Investors should wait for the US inflation report before entering new positions. KEY LOOKOUTS • This vital inflation data will significantly impact USD strength and could unleash high GBP/USD volatility. • Directional bias will be determined by market expectations of a Bank of England standstill against potential Federal Reserve cuts in 2025. • This area is key for the bulls to hold; a breakdown through here could see further decline towards 1.3300. • Continued advances above 1.3500 could sustain bullish momentum, the 1.3540-1.3600 area being next resistance. Traders need to keep a close eye on the next US PCE Price Index release, as the key inflation gauge is set to fuel short-term GBP/USD volatility. The different monetary policy expectations—where the Bank of England should delay rate hikes in June while the Federal Reserve can cut rates in 2025—will remain a market driver. Technically, the 1.3425-1.3415 support area is key to sustaining the bullish trend, and a breakdown from there may clear the way towards 1.3300. On the other hand, a breakout above the psychological level of 1.3500 may inspire new buying interest, paving the way for a test of resistance around 1.3600. Watch for the release of the US PCE Price Index, which has the potential to trigger GBP/USD volatility in light of differing Fed and BoE policy expectations. Support at 1.3425-1.3415 remains key, while a move through 1.3500 would indicate resumed bullish pressure to 1.3600. •  GBP/USD is hovering below 1.3500 in light of conservative USD purchasing in advance of the US PCE inflation report. •  Divergent policies at central banks: BoE likely to freeze rate increases, whereas the Fed is expected to cut rates in 2025. •  Traders are expected to wait for new positions until the US PCE Price Index announcement provides clarity on inflation trends. •  Support at 1.3425-1.3415 is technical and presents opportunities to buy for bulls. •  A break below here may bring further losses towards the 1.3300 level, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. •  Unwavering strength over 1.3500 may prompt renewed bullish pressure targeting 1.3600 resistance. •  The 1.3540-1.3600 area is the critical hurdles for bulls to breach to reinstate the longer-term uptrend. GBP/USD is posting cautious action before the widely awaited US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, an important inflation gauge whose release could have a considerable bearing on market mood. Market players are on their guard as anticipation varies between the Federal Reserve, which is expected to weigh reducing interest rates in 2025, and the Bank of England, which will probably delay additional rate action for the time being. These contrasting outlooks are helping to balance the currency pair’s performance and limit any major shifts. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Market participants are expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach until the US inflation data is released, given its potential to influence the US dollar’s trajectory. The general tone implies a guarded optimism for the British Pound, underpinned by the Bank of England’s more tempered approach relative to the Fed’s longer-term prospects of easing. With investors hedging their bets on future economic events, the GBP/USD is still vulnerable to changes in US inflation direction and central bank attitudes. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is presently moving around crucial support and resistance levels that are determining its short-term trajectory. Although short-term momentum indicators indicate some downward pressure, the pair is underpinned by significant retracement levels that have been historical zones of purchase. A conclusive break through the 1.3500 psychological level would be a sign of strength and should stimulate new buying interest, at least to take the pair higher. On the other hand, a fall below major support levels would leave the way open for more losses, underlining the significance of these technical levels in determining trader choice in the face of overall market indecision. FORECAST GBP/USD succeeds in holding above the major 1.3500 level, it might set the stage for more increases to the 1.3600 region. This is likely to draw new buying interest, as investors regain optimism in the British Pound as they believe the Bank of England will stick to its current policy stance for a longer period than the Federal Reserve. Further Pound strength could also be underpinned by any softer-than-actual US inflation figures, weakening the US Dollar and stoking a broader GBP/USD rally. On the flip side, failure to stay above the support zone around 1.3425-1.3415 may see enhanced selling pressure, pushing GBP/USD down toward the level of 1.3300. Breach below this region would be an indication of a change in market sentiment, potentially signaling more robust US Dollar demand prior to the release of the US inflation report or anxiety about the UK economy. In that case, investors may get risk-averse, and the pair may come under additional pressure before any meaningful recovery is observed.

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