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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Edges Higher as UK GDP Outlook Improves Amid US Dollar Pressure and Trade Uncertainties

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  • May 15, 2025
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GBP/USD is up near 1.3300 in anticipation of the UK’s Q1 GDP release, led by a weaker US Dollar as trade uncertainties continue. The UK economy is expected to report firmer growth of 0.6% in Q1 compared to 0.1% in Q4 2024, which supports investor confidence. In the meantime, US Dollar weakness continues as Washington seems to prefer a weaker currency to improve trade competitiveness. Nevertheless, hopes for hawkish Federal Reserve rate cuts have dissipated, capping the downside pressure on the USD. Traders are watching closely UK economic releases and forthcoming US retail sales and inflation data to determine the near-term prospects of both currencies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Focus in the markets is on the UK’s initial GDP growth rate, which is expected to display a significant acceleration to 0.6%, indicating potential economic strength. • Ongoing pressure on the US Dollar due to uncertainties around trade and potential Washington desire for a softer dollar to prop up exports. • Lower market expectations of decisive Fed rate reductions, with a mere 74% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction in September, affecting USD strength. • Recent labor data showed slower job growth and rising unemployment, but moderate wage increases may influence the Bank of England’s inflation outlook and policy decisions. Investors are closely watching several key factors as GBP/USD edges higher. The UK’s Q1 GDP data, expected to show growth of 0.6%, could reinforce confidence in the British economy’s recovery. At the same time, the US Dollar continues to come under pressure due to uncertainties and speculations over whether Washington prefers a weak dollar to promote exporters. The hopes for Federal Reserve rate decreases have, however, faded, capping the dollar’s losses. Moreover, slower job growth and softening wage increases in the UK’s labor market provide Bank of England’s inflation outlook complexity, making traders keep an eye out for possible changes in monetary policy. GBP/USD is rising as the UK’s Q1 GDP should indicate more robust growth, which will enhance market sentiment. The US Dollar is still under pressure due to trade uncertainty and weaker Fed rate cut expectations. On the other hand, UK employment data and wage levels continue to put the Bank of England’s policy direction in the spotlight. • GBP/USD is trading around 1.3300, helped by a weaker US Dollar in light of continued trade uncertainty. • The UK economy is forecasted to grow by 0.6% in Q1 2025, up from 0.1% in Q4 2024, signaling economic acceleration. • Washington may prefer a weaker dollar to enhance US export competitiveness. • Expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts have eased, with only a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September. • Recent UK labor market data shows slower job growth, rising unemployment, and easing wage gains. • Some easing of the Bank of England’s inflation worry is possibly to be delivered by moderate wage growth. • Market attention turns to Friday’s UK GDP and factory data, followed by US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases later this month. The British Pound is gaining strength as the UK heads to publish its first-quarter economic expansion figures. Forecasts are that the economy has improved at a better rate than it did last quarter, and that is helping increase confidence levels in investors. On the other hand, doubts about global trade and the prospects of the US Dollar are having an impact on movements in currency. The weaker US Dollar is behind the Pound’s rise, reflecting wider worries over continued trade tensions. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Meanwhile, the British labor market also underwent some shifting, with gradual job growth slowing and a tiny increase in unemployment. Wages, though, continue to grow modestly, providing some upbeat news for the economy. Those watching closely, though, include investors who are monitoring closely the impact these indicators will have on the Bank of England’s forthcoming decisions. Over the next few days, some of the most important economic data from the UK and the US will further indicate the health of each economy as well as the path of their respective currencies. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is exhibiting a bounce approaching the 1.3300 level of resistance indicating new buying interest following recent losses. The duo finds support from major moving averages, which have begun to slope and potentially trend upwards, signaling a change in momentum. Traders, however, need to observe confirmation of a break above this level, with the failure to do so prompting a retest of support levels around 1.3200. Overall, technical indicators suggest cautious optimism, with price action being closely related to forthcoming economic data releases. FORECAST If the UK Q1 GDP figures affirm more robust than anticipated growth, it has the potential to lend a big boost to the British Pound, moving GBP/USD into the region above 1.3300. Encouraging economic news could motivate investors to be more bullish on the Pound, aided in turn by a further softening of the US Dollar in response to ongoing trade-related uncertainty. Moreover, if the next UK factory figures and pay trends also improve, the Bank of England might keep a more aggressive stance, which would provide further bullish impetus to the currency pair. On the flip side, disappointing UK economic releases or indications the labor market is depreciating further might put downward pressure on the Pound and result in GBP/USD retracing towards important support zones near 1.3200. Additionally, if the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures are stronger than anticipated, they can revive rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve or cap the losses of the dollar to place pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Traders also have to watch out for unexpected changes in global trade sentiment that lower risk appetite and cause the US Dollar to appreciate as a safe-haven currency.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Approaches 1.3200 Before Significant UK Jobs and US Inflation Figures

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  • May 13, 2025
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GBP/USD pair rose towards the 1.3200 level in early European trading on Tuesday, buoyed by optimism in recent US-UK trade progress and the cautious policy-easing stance of the Bank of England. Optimism for the Pound was also encouraged by the upgraded UK growth prediction of the BoE and the measured interest rate cut approach by the central bank. Meanwhile, traders remain focused on upcoming high-impact data releases, including the UK employment report and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which could influence the next moves of both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, potentially reshaping near-term direction for the currency pair. KEY LOOKOUTS •  Today’s UK jobs report is being followed closely by markets, which has the potential to shape expectations about the Bank of England’s upcoming policy actions and the health of the British economy. •  The US inflation data for April will be one of the prime drivers for the USD, and it has the potential to guide the Federal Reserve’s attitude toward interest rate reductions. A better-than-anticipated CPI might tighten the Greenback. •  The Pound is still underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent stance on rate cuts and its revised UK growth forecast (1% vs 0.75%), which suggests optimism about economic resilience. •  Encouraging news from last week’s trade developments, including lower tariffs on British car and steel exports, is buoying sentiment towards the GBP and adding further support to GBP/USD. GBP/USD pair is trading close to 1.3200 as market participants wait for major macroeconomic data releases that could set the direction of the pair. Markets are looking towards the UK employment report, which may provide some guidance on the policy direction of the Bank of England after its cautious rate cut and revised growth forecast to 1%. At the same time, the April US Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled later today, may influence hopes regarding the next move by the Federal Reserve—especially if the inflation prints stronger than anticipated. Moreover, positive recent news for US-UK trade relations, such as lowered tariffs on UK car and steel exports, is still supporting the Pound. GBP/USD is trading around 1.3200 as markets look to pivotal UK jobs and US inflation figures later today. The Pound continues to be supported by the BoE’s conservative policy approach and enhanced UK growth prospects, with positive US-UK trade developments contributing to the upbeat mood. •   GBP/USD is near 1.3200 after early European session gains on Tuesday. •   UK job data later today may affect the direction of policy by the Bank of England. •  US release of April CPI is likely to direct the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy action. •   BoE’s cautious rate reduction and improved growth estimate (from 0.75% to 1%) provide a boost to the Pound. •   US-UK trade updates, such as lowered tariffs on autos and steel, enhance GBP sentiment. •  Sentiment for GBP is positive as the BoE hints at a gradual policy-easing policy. •  A higher-than-anticipated US CPI may propel the USD and weigh on the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD pair is gaining focus as market participants look to crucial economic news releases from both the UK and the US. Encouraging news in the trade relationship between the two countries, specifically the US move to lower tariffs on British steel and cars, has helped the Pound outlook improve. This follows the recent Bank of England policy revision, during which it opted for cautious treatment of rate changes while affirming faith in the UK economy’s strength by lifting its growth projection. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView Now the spotlight turns to forthcoming economic statistics, including the UK labor data and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April. These releases will help clear up further the economic health of both nations and the likely path of future monetary policy. As data remains top of mind for policymakers, the results of these releases are anxiously awaited by investors and pundits alike. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is exhibiting bullish strength as it trades close to the 1.3200 resistance level. A persistent break above this psychological level could pave the way towards the next resistance area around 1.3250–1.3270. The pair is still underpinned by the 50-day moving average, and the RSI is trading close to 60, indicating there is still scope for further upside before it goes into overbought territory. But if it fails to breach 1.3200 convincingly, then a minor pullback might be initiated with initial support around 1.3130, succeeded by more firm demand at 1.3070. Traders will be looking for a clean breakout or rejection here as the upcoming UK and US data announcements may be the drivers for the next move. FORECAST If the next UK jobs data surprises to the upside and the Bank of England continues with its wary but accommodative tone, GBP/USD may continue to make waves. A good print from the labor market, in addition to ongoing confidence in UK growth and falling trade tensions with America, might propel the pair above the 1.3200 handle. A firm breach above this resistance would unlock the way to 1.3250 and even 1.3300 in the short term, particularly if US inflation statistics print softer than anticipated, reducing the US Dollar. On the other hand, a softer-than-anticipated UK jobs report or a hotter-than-anticipated US CPI reading may put significant downward pressure on GBP/USD. Sturdy inflation figures can rekindle hopes of extended higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, increasing demand for the Greenback and pulling the pair down. A breakdown below 1.3130 would see the correction extending to 1.3070, with additional bearish pressure potentially extending to the 1.3000 psychological level if risk appetite worsens or the macro data severely underwhelms.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Fails to Hold Key Resistance of 1.3303 on Mixed Technical Indicators

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  • May 6, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair is trading near 1.3300 levels, with short-term momentum neutral as it moves close to the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still greater than 50, a sign that the bullish tendency still lingers. A breakout above the near-term resistance at 1.3303 would set the stage for a push up to the psychological level of 1.3400 and higher. But a failure to hold above the present levels would bring attention on the downside, with the 50-day EMA level of 1.3054 being the critical level of support. A break below this level would precipitate further losses down to the April and March lows, indicating a potential change in medium-term sentiment. KEY LOOKOUTS • A clear breakout above the nine-day EMA would reinforce short-term positive momentum and set the stage for a challenge of 1.3400. • A fall below this mark might signal diminishing medium-term momentum and would leave the pair vulnerable to further declines. • This remains to indicate a bullish bias, but any fall below this level may see sentiment move to neutral or bearish. • The key resistance at 1.3445 (April high) and support at 1.2708 (April low) and 1.2577 (March low) are still important for assessing the broader directional trends. GBP/USD pair is at a decisive point, trading around the 1.3300 level with near-term resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.3303. The breakdown above this level may boost short-term bullish strength, pushing the pair to the psychological 1.3400 level and April high of 1.3445. But if the pair fails to break higher, it could trigger fresh selling pressure, especially if it plummets below the 50-day EMA of 1.3054, a major medium-term support. Even with the 14-day RSI holding above 50, bearish sentiment remains in view for now, although traders need to keep a close eye on price movements near these technical levels for more definitive directional signals. GBP/USD remains around 1.3300, resisting at the nine-day EMA level of 1.3303. A breakout may reach 1.3400, and support at 1.3054 continues to be important in keeping the bullish momentum intact. The RSI value above 50 continues to indicate a bullish bias. • GBP/USD remains around 1.3300 in the Asian session, indicating consolidation after the recent rise. • The nine-day EMA level of 1.3303 is the initial important resistance level. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting underlying bullish momentum. • A break above 1.3303 may see a test of 1.3400 and potentially the April high of 1.3445. • Initial support is at the 50-day EMA of 1.3054, a key level for medium-term momentum. • A break below 1.3054 may see the pair fall to the April low of 1.2708 and the March low of 1.2577. • The short-term trend is still neutral, waiting for a clear break above resistance or below support to determine direction. GBP/USD currency pair continues to remain stable around the 1.3300 level, showing cautious optimism among traders. Market players are still keen on observing wider economic trends and policy cues from both the US and the UK, which may determine the next leg of the currency pair’s trajectory. Faith in the British economy, along with prevailing expectations regarding interest rate moves, is crucial in sustaining the pair’s present tone. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView On the international front, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical events, inflation reports, and central bank rhetoric, all of which drive broad market sentiment. The GBP/USD is still responsive to changes in risk appetite and macroeconomic direction, with traders looking for clarity before taking firm directional positions. Stability in both economies and policy clarity in the near term will be critical in deciding the pair’s next direction. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is steady as investors look towards overall economic and geopolitical trends that may shape market sentiment. Issues like forthcoming economic releases, policies by central banks, and worldwide risk appetite are dominating investor expectations. Investors are remaining wary and waiting for stronger indications from the UK as well as the US economies before taking stronger stances. Consequently, the currency pair remains trading in a relatively stable range, indicating a wait-and-see attitude in global financial markets. FORECAST If market sentiment continues to be positive and economic indicators in the UK remain resilient, the GBP/USD pair may pick up momentum and move above key resistance levels. A continued rise could move the pair toward the psychological barrier of 1.3400, with additional potential to touch the recent high around 1.3445. Favorable news like improved UK GDP growth, softening U.S. inflation, or dovish tones from the Federal Reserve are all potential drivers of further strength in the pair. Conversely, if the pair fails to hold support or if the bearish news arises—e.g., poor UK economic data, increasing U.S. yields, or escalated geopolitical tensions—GBP/USD may once again face pressure. A fall below key support levels would set the stage for a movement towards 1.3050 and progressively test lower ranges witnessed earlier in the months, e.g., 1.2708 or even 1.2577. Any move in the direction of a more hawkish U.S. monetary policy would also hit the pound hard, making further downside even more likely.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Dollar Rises as GBP Is Affected by Inflation and BoE Rate Reduction Pressure

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  • April 17, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has experienced a breather from its recent rally, pulling back to approximately 1.3230 from a high of 1.3300 in six months. Favorable news regarding US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted the US Dollar, while disappointing inflation readings in the UK have fueled expectations for possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. In spite of the pullback, the short-term GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) moving upwards and robust bullish momentum signaled by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). A breakout above 1.3292 may propel the pair to higher levels, but a fall below 1.3164 may initiate further drops. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The positive development in US-Japan trade negotiations has brought relief to the US Dollar, which has recovered and witnessed bids. The US Dollar Index (DXY) moving up towards 99.50 may add further pressure on GBP/USD in the short run. •  UK’s soft inflation figures, especially in services, and a bleak jobs market outlook are raising hopes that the Bank of England will choose to cut interest rates, which could press down on the Pound. • The GBP/USD currency pair is in a general uptrend with the support of rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a robust V-shape recovery in the 14-day RSI, indicating that the pair may continue to rise if it surmounts recent highs. • Look for possible price reaction at 1.3292 (April 16 high) for a potential shift to 1.3430 and 1.3500. Alternatively, a fall below 1.3164 (April 15 low) may extend the decline, with 1.3063 and the psychological 1.3000 mark serving as major support. GBP/USD pair is facing a brief slowdown in its rally, retreating to near 1.3230 after hitting a six-month peak of 1.3300. This pullback is against the backdrop of firming US Dollar demand, fueled by upbeat news in US-Japan trade negotiations, which has assisted the US Dollar in its recovery. In contrast, weak UK inflation data and a less rosy labor market forecast have fueled hopes of possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England, which may put further pressure on the Pound. This notwithstanding, the short-term GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with the rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a robust bounce in the 14-day RSI pointing to the possibility of the pair reversing its downward bias and returning to upward traction should it reclaim above the 1.3292 level. But a fall below 1.3164 will stimulate further downside action, with 1.3063 and 1.3000 being crucial supports. GBP/USD has pulled back to 1.3230 from a high of 1.3300, as the US Dollar gains strength due to favorable US-Japan trade talks. Soft UK inflation figures and hopes of Bank of England rate cuts weigh on the Pound, although the short-term outlook remains bullish if the pair is able to break above 1.3292. • The GBP/USD pair pulled back to 1.3230 from a six-month high of 1.3300, indicating a halt in the recent rally. •  The US Dollar has benefited as US-Japan trade negotiations improved, sending the US Dollar Index (DXY) to close to 99.50. •  UK inflation data, particularly in the services sector, has raised hopes for possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. •  The dismal UK labor market forecast, coupled with tepid inflation, increases the chances of the Bank of England relaxing its monetary policy to spur the economy. •  In spite of the retreat, the overall GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) rising and hinting at further bullish momentum. •  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made a V-shaped recovery, which indicates that bullish momentum may continue. •  A move above 1.3292 may take GBP/USD to higher levels such as 1.3430 and 1.3500, and a fall below 1.3164 may take it lower with 1.3063 and 1.3000 being support levels. The GBP/USD currency pair has seen a pullback from its recent six-month high of 1.3300, falling back to 1.3230 as the US Dollar strengthens. This Greenback strength is largely due to favorable news in US-Japan trade talks, which have eased fears over global economic uncertainty. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has also recovered to the vicinity of 99.50, which represents the increasing confidence that the US is moving away from intensifying trade tensions. Investors are more confident now that the US will concentrate on bilateral deals instead of pursuing additional trade wars, thereby providing the US Dollar with a strong support. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView While that, the Pound Sterling continues under pressure as gentle inflation numbers in the UK have teased hopes of interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. The UK services sector inflation eased to 4.7% in March from 5% in February, which may encourage the Bank of England to unwind its monetary policy to fuel growth in the economy. Additionally, a challenging labor market outlook suggests that UK employers may reduce hiring, further impacting the strength of the Pound. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment for GBP/USD remains cautiously positive, as the pair has shown resilience, supported by market expectations of future upside potential. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in an overall bullish trend, supported by rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) across various timeframes, indicating upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exhibited a V-shaped bounce, going from 40.00 up to almost 70.00, indicating strong buying pressure and sustained bullish momentum. The critical technical levels to monitor are 1.3292, the April 16 high, which would trigger further appreciation towards 1.3430 and 1.3500 if broken. On the negative side, a drop below 1.3164 (the April 15 low) might initiate a retracement to 1.3063 and the psychological barrier of 1.3000, where support is likely to be found. In general, the technical indicators suggest a cautiously positive near-term scenario for the pair. FORECAST GBP/USD pair might renew its bullish trajectory if it can break over the recent high of 1.3292 on April 16. Breaking above that mark would set the pair up to move higher, potentially toward the

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Approaches 1.3050 as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Key PPI Data Amid Easing Inflation and Trade Shifts

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  • April 11, 2025
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The GBP/USD is gaining strength, nearing the 1.3050 level, as the US Dollar continues to lose strength in light of easing inflation and changing trade patterns. A lower-than-anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, with headline inflation falling to 2.4% year-over-year, has tempered the greenback’s attractiveness, leading investors to wait for forthcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) releases and consumer sentiment surveys. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to approximately 100.20, indicating broader market unease regarding the domestic economic outlook. Also, the recent relaxation of global trade tensions—despite a sharp rise in tariffs on Chinese imports—has bolstered risk sentiment in favor of the British Pound. Market expectations are now pointing toward a cautious rate-cut trajectory by the Bank of England, with an update in May looking increasingly probable. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are keeping a close eye on March’s Producer Price Index and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment readings for additional insight into inflation patterns and consumer sentiment. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen close to 100.20 after softer-than-expected CPI numbers, maintaining pressure on the greenback against major currencies. • Bank of England rate cut expectations in the markets continue to support a phase of gradual relaxation, with possible quarter-point reductions expected in May, August, and November. • The 90-day US tariff pause for most partners, contrasted with higher tariffs on Chinese imports, continues to shape global risk sentiment and currency flows. Markets are looking for a few key drivers of the GBP/USD pair’s recent strength. Focus now shifts to the coming release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment numbers, both seen to offer new information on inflationary pressures and consumer sentiment. The US Dollar continues to suffer, with the Dollar Index staying close to 100.20 after a below-forecast CPI reading for March. In contrast, Bank of England rate-cut expectations are still in place, with markets anticipating a probable move in May, followed by possible cuts in August and November. Also, changing global trade flows—dramatized by the US relaxing tariffs on most partners while steeply increasing them on Chinese imports—are influencing investor sentiment and buoying risk-sensitive currencies such as the British Pound. GBP/USD pair is still going higher as the US Dollar declines on the back of weaker inflation reports and risk-off market sentiment. Investors now await major US PPI and consumer sentiment releases to guide them. Hopes for gradual BoE rate reductions are also in support of the Pound. • The pair is trending higher, securing its fourth successive daily gain. • The DXY drops to about 100.20 in the wake of fears over weak inflation and uncertainty in the economy. • March CPI increased 2.4% YoY, less than the 2.6% expectation and down from February’s 2.8%, indicating easing inflation. • Core inflation fell to 2.8% YoY from 3.1%, missing the 3.0% expectation. • Investors look to March PPI and initial Michigan Consumer Sentiment for additional economic indicators. • The US imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports but suspended increases for most partners, reducing overall trade tensions. • Markets expect three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year, the first in May, then in August and November. The British Pound is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes due to recent economic and policy news. One of the main drivers underpinning the Pound is the slowdown in inflation in the United States, with the Consumer Price Index for March revealing a significant slowdown from recent months. This has created increasing expectation that the Federal Reserve will delay further aggressive moves in monetary policy, which in turn has had an impact on confidence in the US Dollar. Concurrently, an overall pick-up in risk sentiment across the world has become more acceptable for investors to hold currencies such as the Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView To the upbeat mood is added a new direction in US trade policy. Although tariffs on Chinese imports were raised sharply, the US implemented a temporary moratorium on new tariffs for all other trading partners. This action has served to allay concerns of an escalating trade war, paving the way for more settled global economic prospects. Back in the UK, the Bank of England is likely to take a gradual path to monetary accommodation, with any rate cuts dovetailed across the course of the year. Such a measured approach has contributed to the Pound’s relative attractiveness, particularly as markets anticipate crucial near-term data releases. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is displaying robust bullish momentum as it trades around the 1.3050 resistance level, constituting a potential breakout zone. The pair has sustained an uptrend for four straight sessions, backed by a series of higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart. The 50-day moving average is in an upward trend, supporting bullishness, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below the overbought level, indicating scope for further appreciation. A continued break above 1.3050 may pave the way towards the next resistance at 1.3100, while short-term support is around 1.2970, followed by the psychological 1.2900 level. FORECAST GBP/USD may keep its momentum going in the short term, particularly if future US economic indicators, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and consumer sentiment, further indicate a decline in inflation. A weaker prognosis for the US economy would likely make the Dollar even weaker, which could give GBP/USD enough strength to breach the 1.3050 resistance level and head for the next level at 1.3100 or even 1.3150. Enhanced global risk appetite, underpinned by reduced trade tensions and stable UK economic indicators, may also keep demand for the Pound firm. Should the Bank of England continue with a measured and consistent policy of rate cuts, it could give further support to the currency. Conversely, GBP/USD will potentially come under selling pressure should US data surprise to the upside, resuscitating hopes of tighter Federal Reserve policy. A rebound in the US Dollar, particularly if it is fueled by more robust inflation or growth data, might drive the

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Firm Near Multi-Month Highs Amid Fed-BoE Policy Divergence and USD Caution

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  • March 21, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair remains firm near multi-month highs around the mid-1.2900s, resolute in the face of a modest appreciation in the US Dollar. Though the Greenback does get some help from safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy, the contrasting monetary policy direction between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England supports the British Pound. As the Fed is likely to reduce rates several times this year and the BoE is hinting at a more dovish stance, the broad inclination for GBP/USD is skewed to the higher side. Lacking any significant economic data releases, price action will probably remain range-bound, although any retracement may offer buying chances, leaving the pair on course to record a third straight weekly gain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Still holding firm above the mid-1.2900s despite intraday volatility, the pair remains near the multi-month high at over 1.3000 recorded on Thursday. • The Bank of England’s dovish approach to rate cuts is in contrast to the Fed’s expected easing, providing sustained support to the Pound. • The Greenback makes minor gains from multi-month lows on the back of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over trade tariffs, but upside is still capped. • Without any significant economic releases on Friday, GBP/USD is likely to be guided by USD dynamics and overall market sentiment, leaving the pair skewed to the upside. The GBP/USD pair remains stuck close to multi-month highs, stabilizing above the 1.2950 mark and within touching distance of the psychological level of 1.3000 touched on Thursday. The action of the pair is still heavily dictated by varying monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has stuck to its rate cut forecast for 2025 and upgraded its inflation forecast, the BoE has been more conservative, indicating reduced rate cuts in the future. This policy divergence supports the British Pound, although a modest rebound in the US Dollar — fueled by geopolitical tensions and trade tariff uncertainty — limits the upside. With minimal economic data on the calendar, the emphasis is on general market sentiment and USD dynamics, which maintains the path of least resistance slightly favorable for the bulls. GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2950, within striking distance of the multi-month high around 1.3000 in the face of diverging Fed-BoE policy expectations. Although a marginal USD recovery caps upside, the Pound finds support in bets for delayed BoE rate cuts. Lacking in major data releases, USD motion and sentiment will shape short-term direction. • GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2950, remaining near the multi-month high breached above 1.3000 yesterday. • Failure of distinct intraday direction, with the pair ranging narrowly in and about the 1.2960 area in the Asian session. • Limited USD reversal from multi-month lows serves as short-term cap on additional GBP/USD upside. • Fed leaves rate cut forecasts in 2025 unchanged, but inflation fears and uncertainty on trade tariffs provide support to the US Dollar. • BoE indicates a reduced rate cut pace, providing relative strength to the British Pound in the face of differing monetary policies. • No significant economic data releases from the UK or US on Friday, maintaining attention on general sentiment and USD dynamics. • GBP/USD set for a third straight weekly gain, with any pullbacks expected to be viewed as buying opportunities by traders. The GBP/USD currency pair remains a mirror of the general macroeconomic climate influenced by divergent central bank policy and sentiment globally. The Bank of England’s conservative approach to rate cuts, coupled with its revision of inflation expectations higher, indicates a more hawkish stance relative to other major central banks. This has given the British Pound a sense of underlying support, particularly as the market readjusts around monetary easing timelines. Conversely, the Federal Reserve’s consistent prediction of rate cuts for 2025, supported by increasing US trade uncertainty and inflation worries, introduces a degree of complication into the wider outlook. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Moreover, the lack of significant economic data releases has led the market to focus more on sentiment-driven influences and policy divergence themes. Investors are also carefully observing the international geopolitical environment, particularly possible trade policy shifts in the US, which will impact currency markets more broadly. Under such conditions, investor interest is focused on how central banks react to inflation trends and economic events in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains stuck in a consolidative range following a recent probe of the pivotal psychological resistance at the 1.3000 level. The pair remains supported above the 1.2950 level, reflecting underlying bulls, with buying interest evident on minor declines. A break and hold above 1.3000 would make way for more upside in the near term, while any retracement might encounter initial support near the 1.2900-1.2920 range. The broader direction is still positive as long as the pair is above key moving averages and has higher lows on the chart. FORECAST As long as bullish sentiment prevails and the Pound is upheld by the Bank of England’s relatively hawkish policy, GBP/USD may target a firm breakout above the psychological 1.3000 level. A continued break above this hurdle could initiate new buying interest, driving the pair towards the next resistance levels of 1.3050 and 1.3100 in the near term. Favorable UK economic news over the next few weeks or any indication of a delay in the Fed’s rate-cut schedule could further boost the upside momentum. Conversely, if the US Dollar strengthens further on safe-haven demand or better-than-expected US data, then GBP/USD can face pressure. A break below the 1.2950 support level may result in a correction lower with the next significant support at 1.2900 followed by 1.2840. Any dovish hint from the BoE or change in global risk appetite may boost downhill movement and leave bulls on the defensive in the near term.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Resists Below 1.3000 as US Dollar Weakness and Central Bank Prudence Take Hold

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  • March 18, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair continues to resist below the 1.3000 level due to a weak US Dollar amidst growing economic risks and prudent central bank expectations. As the pair trades around 1.2970, bears seem to have limited room as the Greenback grapples with weak US retail sales reports and fresh trade tensions. Investors believe the Federal Reserve will leave policy unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, and similarly, the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates untouched on Thursday. These moves combined with the BoE’s recent reluctance to try and balance growth worries against inflation worries may support the Pound Sterling further in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets broadly expect the Fed to stick with its current interest rate policy, but any hint on future rate direction may influence USD sentiment. • The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention on dealing with inflation risks while facing low growth and revised expectations. • Subpar retail sales figures, Trump’s tariff warning, and escalating economic uncertainty are still dragging down the Greenback, constraining its recovery. • The pair is still supported around 1.2970, with minimal downside pressure. A breakout above 1.3000 may indicate additional bullish momentum if USD weakness continues. Traders are keenly observing major economic and policy events this week that may influence the direction of GBP/USD. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday is likely to keep the current stance, but any indication of future monetary policy may influence the US Dollar. In the same vein, the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged, marking a conservative stance against ongoing inflation and decelerating growth. In contrast, the US Dollar continues to struggle with softer-than-expected retail sales figures and escalating trade tensions, capping its potential for recovery. These combined factors collectively favor the Pound, with GBP/USD remaining firm around 1.2970 and targeting a possible breakout above the 1.3000 level. GBP/USD is stable around 1.2970 as the US Dollar falters with soft economic data and trade tensions. Investors look forward to major policy decisions by the Fed and Bank of England that might propel further action. A break above 1.3000 could be an indication of fresh bullish push for the pair. • GBP/USD hovers around 1.2970, backing off but staying strong below the pivotal 1.3000 level. • US Dollar is still susceptible to weakness with poor economic numbers and escalating trade tensions. • February US Retail Sales increased just 0.2%, falling short and sparking concerns over consumer spending. • Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates steady in Wednesday’s policy meeting. • US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 103.50 but remains exposed to losses. • Bank of England is also likely to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, underpinning GBP strength. • Pound Sterling can also be further supported by the BoE’s conservative approach in the face of inflation and growth worries. The GBP/USD currency pair is maintaining its ground as market attention turns to pivotal central bank announcements this week. Investors are monitoring closely the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, where there is no rate change expected, but the focus is still on the tone of the Fed on future economic conditions. Recent US data, specifically weaker retail sales numbers, has worried investors on the strength of consumer spending and the overall economic prospect. In addition, trade policy and global economic stability uncertainties are weighing on the optimism of investors and putting pressure on the US Doller. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling is being supported by hopes that the Bank of England will stick with its present interest rate policy when it meets later. The central bank is walking a tightrope between containing sticky inflation and responding to easing economic growth. While the UK economy also has its challenges, the prudent policy stance of the BoE is steadying sentiment towards the British Pound. As both central banks take a wait-and-watch stance, the overall market environment remains influenced by economic data and world events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is now consolidating just below the psychological 1.3000 level, with 1.2970 serving as the immediate support area. Any prolonged break above 1.3000 might make way for additional bullish follow-through, perhaps heading higher towards broader resistance levels. Conversely, any break beneath 1.2950 could see near-term selling pressure, but overall, the pair remains in a bullish inclination so long as it remains above key moving averages. Traders will be looking for price action at these levels to confirm the next direction. FORECAST If the GBP/USD currency pair is able to hold above the 1.3000 psychological level, it could open the way to more upside momentum. A clean break above this level could lead to buyers driving the pair to the next resistance areas around 1.3050 and 1.3100. Bulls around the Pound, backed by the Bank of England’s firm policy direction and the US Dollar’s weakness, may also continue to propel bullish strength. Any sign of dovishness from the Federal Reserve or further disappointing US economic data could also add more to upward pressure on the pair. To the downside, in the event that GBP/USD cannot resist below the 1.2950–1.2970 support zone, the pair might temporarily retreat. A fall below this level could trigger additional losses to 1.2900 or even 1.2850 in the near term. The US Dollar might regain momentum if the Fed turns more hawkish or if risk appetite declines in international markets. Moreover, any unexpected change in the Bank of England’s expectations or poor UK economic indicators may cap the rally potential and pull the Pound back.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Tops Four-Month High as US Dollar Loses Ground to Cooling Inflation, Rising Economic Concerns

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  • March 13, 2025
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The GBP/USD rate hit a four-month high of 1.2989 on March 13 amid a sustained rise as the US Dollar comes under pressure following declining US inflation and increasing economic concerns. The recent decline in US inflation, combined with hopes of possible rate cuts by the Fed, has undermined the Greenback, lifting the British Pound. In the meantime, the UK economy is not without its problems, with falling housing prices and a muted outlook from the Bank of England. In spite of these issues, hopes for UK-US trade talks and hopes for persistently higher interest rates have supported the Pound. Investors are now looking to forthcoming US economic statistics and UK GDP data to further assess the prospects of both economies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Deterioration in US inflation is expected to raise hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates earlier than expected, which will soften the US Dollar. • The GBP/USD pair continues to push higher, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar comes under pressure with rising fears of recession. •  The RICS Housing Price Balance dropped to 11% in February, signaling ongoing weakness in the UK housing market amid broader economic uncertainty. • Expectations of sustained high interest rates in the UK are supporting the Pound, as traders scale back earlier forecasts for aggressive easing by the BoE. The GBP/USD pair is holding steady near four-month highs, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar faces significant pressure. The recent dip in US inflation, with headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in the near future, pressuring the Greenback. In contrast, the UK economy is struggling, led by a drop in house prices, but the British Pound is being cushioned by increased hopes that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates in place for a longer time. With fears of a possible US recession and continued tariff uncertainty, the Pound is strengthening as investors await future economic data, such as the US Producer Price Index and UK GDP, for further market guidance. GBP/USD remains strong near four-month highs as the US Dollar weakens on cooling inflation, fueling expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK’s economic outlook faces pressure from a declining housing market, but optimism around sustained Bank of England rates supports the Pound. • The GBP/USD pair reached 1.2989 on March 13, maintaining strength amid a weaker US Dollar. • US February inflation data revealed a trend of cooling, with both headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, lowering the chances of additional rate hikes. • Expectations in markets are increasing that the Federal Reserve is likely to trim interest rates in the near future because of the downtrend in inflation and possible economic concerns. • The Greenback is also subjected to further headwinds as fears of a US recession persist, putting further pressure on the US Dollar. • The UK housing sector was weak, with the Residential Market Survey recording a second successive fall in the Housing Price Balance to 11% in February. • The UK 10-year gilt yield rose, indicating expectations that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates for longer. • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was optimistic that the UK would not face US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which augured well for UK-US trade relations. The GBP/USD currency pair has been trending upwards, hitting a four-month high, indicating a positive sentiment for the British Pound. This change arrives as the US Dollar is increasingly under pressure, much of which stems from inflation and general economic concerns in the United States. As US inflation appeared to be easing, speculation grew that the Federal Reserve would soon decide to cut interest rates, which has further undermined the Greenback. In the meantime, the UK is working through its own economic woes, but the Pound is continuing to find favor, in part because it is expected that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates higher for longer. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView As the UK works through uncertainty in its housing market, where falling housing prices have been seen in recent months, there is cause for hope when it comes to trade with the US. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shown faith that the nation would be spared tariffs on aluminum and steel via ongoing negotiations, which has allowed for a slightly more optimistic note in the market. As attention turns to pending economic data points, such as the UK GDP reports and more information regarding US inflation, prospects for both currencies remain tied to changing economic updates. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has been in a strong bullish trend, closely following its four-month highs, with the pair repeatedly holding above the 1.2950 level. The recent escalation to 1.2989 indicates that the Pound is picking up pace, helped by the declining US Dollar. Important support is around 1.2900, while resistance is at 1.3000, where the pair is likely to encounter some consolidation before breaking higher. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate bullish sentiment, although traders will watch closely for any pullbacks or overbought signals. As market players wait for new economic releases, these technical levels will be important in deciding the pair’s next direction. FORECAST The GBP/USD currency pair is expected to extend its bullish run, helped by a weakening US Dollar and expectation of the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in the immediate future. The Pound can continue to push towards the psychological 1.3000 resistance level if it holds its strength above crucial support levels, around 1.2950. The optimism in the market about the UK’s trade talks with the US and the Bank of England’s hardline on interest rates should give further support to the British currency. A move above 1.3000 would potentially lead to further advances, targeting the 1.3050 to 1.3100 region, if economic numbers out of the UK remain resilient. On the

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Appreciates on Market Sentiment: GBP/USD Tests Critical Resistance as Investors Look to Economic Releases

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) has appreciated against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment continues to improve. Investor sentiment has improved after President Trump’s moderated approach to tariffs and continued talks of a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Yet, doubts persist regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as the most recent FOMC minutes emphasize ongoing inflation threats from possible tariff effects. The economic outlook for the UK is also uncertain, with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey indicating weak growth and labor market deceleration. The British pound is capped at 1.2620, with future UK Retail Sales and S&P Global PMI figures set to dictate further price movements. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales report, which will give them an idea of consumer spending patterns and the general health of the UK economy. • The initial UK and US PMI readings for February will reflect economic activity patterns and may determine the short-term direction of the Pound Sterling. • FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates based on inflation threats, which could maintain the US Dollar strong against the Pound Sterling. • The 1.2620 level of resistance and 1.2250 support zone are very important in specifying the next possible breakout or correction in the currency pair. The Pound Sterling’s shift against the US Dollar is dependent on several significant determinants, such as future UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI reports, due to release and offering new economic activity and consumer confidence insights. As for its counterpart, the Federal Reserve’s recent conservative position regarding interest rates, reflected in the most recent FOMC minutes, emphasizes inflationary pressures fueled by possible US tariff measures. This could keep the US Dollar strong, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. On the technical front, the pair faces resistance at 1.2620, aligned with the 100-day EMA, while key support rests at 1.2250. Market sentiment remains a key driver, with geopolitical developments and risk appetite influencing short-term trends. The Pound Sterling’s action against the US Dollar continues to be guided by UK Retail Sales figures, PMI data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance. With 1.2620 acting as resistance and 1.2250 as support, geopolitical concerns and market sentiment will dictate the direction of the currency pair. • GBP/USD is trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment picks up pace, boosted by diminishing fears about Trump’s tariff policies and optimism in geopolitics. • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales figures, which will give an indication of consumer expenditure and possible economic recovery. • The UK and US February preliminary PMI figures will be instrumental in determining business activity and economic resilience. • The FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates as a result of inflation fears, which may favor the US Dollar. • UK CPI increased more than expected, but the BoE is still hesitant to cut rates further due to economic weakness. • GBP/USD is resisted at 1.2620 and major support at 1.2250, where it will make its next move. • Market sentiment is influenced by news regarding Trump’s trade policies and continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The movement of the Pound Sterling is now being dictated by wider economic and geopolitical events. Investors are following UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI closely, which will paint a clearer picture of economic activity and consumer confidence. A better-than-anticipated retail performance will indicate strength in the UK economy, while PMI figures will reveal business conditions in the UK and US. Also, recent inflation data have indicated a short-term spike, and as a result, the Bank of England has kept monetary policy tight. Governor Andrew Bailey has already cautioned that growth could be slow, and any additional policy moves will be based on new data. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the international front, market sentiment has been better because of a more cautious approach by President Trump on trade policies. Although early fears about tariffs on Chinese imports and other major sectors caused volatility, Trump’s recent statements on a potential trade deal with China have calmed fears. But uncertainty persists as there is no clear plan on tariff implementation. While meanwhile, talks on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have also fostered a risk-positive sentiment, though Ukraine dismissed any agreement in the absence of its direct participation. As conditions in the world economy and politics change, investors will be careful, keeping an eye on critical events that would affect market stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is fighting to sustain above the 1.2600 level, and resistance is situated at 1.2620, which is coinciding with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The duo is now oscillating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, calculated from the September-end high to the January-middle low, which represents a key area for possible breakout or pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is barely managing to stay above 60.00, and if it fails to hold above this level, it could signal weakening bullish momentum. On the negative side, major support is at 1.2250, and a fall below this level may initiate further selling pressure. To have a stronger uptrend, GBP/USD must break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2767, which would signal a continuation of bullish sentiment. FORECAST The potential for the upside in GBP/USD relies on better market sentiment and major economic data releases. If UK Retail Sales for January and February S&P Global PMI reports surpass predictions, this is likely to be a confidence booster for the UK economy, driving the Pound upward. Favorable change in Brexit developments or better-than-forecasted employment statistics are additional strengths for the currency. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve is hinting at a softer approach towards interest rates in light of slowing inflation, the US Dollar might depreciate, leaving GBP/USD more space to move upwards. Breaking above the resistance level of 1.2620 might signal more upward gains towards the 1.2767 area, suggesting positive momentum. On the negative, any indication of economic weakness within the UK, for example poor retail sales or a fall

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