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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Remains Firm Near Multi-Month Highs Amid Fed-BoE Policy Divergence and USD Caution

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  • March 21, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair remains firm near multi-month highs around the mid-1.2900s, resolute in the face of a modest appreciation in the US Dollar. Though the Greenback does get some help from safe-haven flows due to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy, the contrasting monetary policy direction between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England supports the British Pound. As the Fed is likely to reduce rates several times this year and the BoE is hinting at a more dovish stance, the broad inclination for GBP/USD is skewed to the higher side. Lacking any significant economic data releases, price action will probably remain range-bound, although any retracement may offer buying chances, leaving the pair on course to record a third straight weekly gain. KEY LOOKOUTS • Still holding firm above the mid-1.2900s despite intraday volatility, the pair remains near the multi-month high at over 1.3000 recorded on Thursday. • The Bank of England’s dovish approach to rate cuts is in contrast to the Fed’s expected easing, providing sustained support to the Pound. • The Greenback makes minor gains from multi-month lows on the back of geopolitical tensions and uncertainties over trade tariffs, but upside is still capped. • Without any significant economic releases on Friday, GBP/USD is likely to be guided by USD dynamics and overall market sentiment, leaving the pair skewed to the upside. The GBP/USD pair remains stuck close to multi-month highs, stabilizing above the 1.2950 mark and within touching distance of the psychological level of 1.3000 touched on Thursday. The action of the pair is still heavily dictated by varying monetary policy expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. While the Fed has stuck to its rate cut forecast for 2025 and upgraded its inflation forecast, the BoE has been more conservative, indicating reduced rate cuts in the future. This policy divergence supports the British Pound, although a modest rebound in the US Dollar — fueled by geopolitical tensions and trade tariff uncertainty — limits the upside. With minimal economic data on the calendar, the emphasis is on general market sentiment and USD dynamics, which maintains the path of least resistance slightly favorable for the bulls. GBP/USD remains steady above 1.2950, within striking distance of the multi-month high around 1.3000 in the face of diverging Fed-BoE policy expectations. Although a marginal USD recovery caps upside, the Pound finds support in bets for delayed BoE rate cuts. Lacking in major data releases, USD motion and sentiment will shape short-term direction. • GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2950, remaining near the multi-month high breached above 1.3000 yesterday. • Failure of distinct intraday direction, with the pair ranging narrowly in and about the 1.2960 area in the Asian session. • Limited USD reversal from multi-month lows serves as short-term cap on additional GBP/USD upside. • Fed leaves rate cut forecasts in 2025 unchanged, but inflation fears and uncertainty on trade tariffs provide support to the US Dollar. • BoE indicates a reduced rate cut pace, providing relative strength to the British Pound in the face of differing monetary policies. • No significant economic data releases from the UK or US on Friday, maintaining attention on general sentiment and USD dynamics. • GBP/USD set for a third straight weekly gain, with any pullbacks expected to be viewed as buying opportunities by traders. The GBP/USD currency pair remains a mirror of the general macroeconomic climate influenced by divergent central bank policy and sentiment globally. The Bank of England’s conservative approach to rate cuts, coupled with its revision of inflation expectations higher, indicates a more hawkish stance relative to other major central banks. This has given the British Pound a sense of underlying support, particularly as the market readjusts around monetary easing timelines. Conversely, the Federal Reserve’s consistent prediction of rate cuts for 2025, supported by increasing US trade uncertainty and inflation worries, introduces a degree of complication into the wider outlook. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Moreover, the lack of significant economic data releases has led the market to focus more on sentiment-driven influences and policy divergence themes. Investors are also carefully observing the international geopolitical environment, particularly possible trade policy shifts in the US, which will impact currency markets more broadly. Under such conditions, investor interest is focused on how central banks react to inflation trends and economic events in the future. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains stuck in a consolidative range following a recent probe of the pivotal psychological resistance at the 1.3000 level. The pair remains supported above the 1.2950 level, reflecting underlying bulls, with buying interest evident on minor declines. A break and hold above 1.3000 would make way for more upside in the near term, while any retracement might encounter initial support near the 1.2900-1.2920 range. The broader direction is still positive as long as the pair is above key moving averages and has higher lows on the chart. FORECAST As long as bullish sentiment prevails and the Pound is upheld by the Bank of England’s relatively hawkish policy, GBP/USD may target a firm breakout above the psychological 1.3000 level. A continued break above this hurdle could initiate new buying interest, driving the pair towards the next resistance levels of 1.3050 and 1.3100 in the near term. Favorable UK economic news over the next few weeks or any indication of a delay in the Fed’s rate-cut schedule could further boost the upside momentum. Conversely, if the US Dollar strengthens further on safe-haven demand or better-than-expected US data, then GBP/USD can face pressure. A break below the 1.2950 support level may result in a correction lower with the next significant support at 1.2900 followed by 1.2840. Any dovish hint from the BoE or change in global risk appetite may boost downhill movement and leave bulls on the defensive in the near term.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Resists Below 1.3000 as US Dollar Weakness and Central Bank Prudence Take Hold

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  • March 18, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair continues to resist below the 1.3000 level due to a weak US Dollar amidst growing economic risks and prudent central bank expectations. As the pair trades around 1.2970, bears seem to have limited room as the Greenback grapples with weak US retail sales reports and fresh trade tensions. Investors believe the Federal Reserve will leave policy unchanged at the meeting on Wednesday, and similarly, the Bank of England is expected to leave interest rates untouched on Thursday. These moves combined with the BoE’s recent reluctance to try and balance growth worries against inflation worries may support the Pound Sterling further in the short term. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets broadly expect the Fed to stick with its current interest rate policy, but any hint on future rate direction may influence USD sentiment. • The BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention on dealing with inflation risks while facing low growth and revised expectations. • Subpar retail sales figures, Trump’s tariff warning, and escalating economic uncertainty are still dragging down the Greenback, constraining its recovery. • The pair is still supported around 1.2970, with minimal downside pressure. A breakout above 1.3000 may indicate additional bullish momentum if USD weakness continues. Traders are keenly observing major economic and policy events this week that may influence the direction of GBP/USD. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday is likely to keep the current stance, but any indication of future monetary policy may influence the US Dollar. In the same vein, the Bank of England’s Thursday meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged, marking a conservative stance against ongoing inflation and decelerating growth. In contrast, the US Dollar continues to struggle with softer-than-expected retail sales figures and escalating trade tensions, capping its potential for recovery. These combined factors collectively favor the Pound, with GBP/USD remaining firm around 1.2970 and targeting a possible breakout above the 1.3000 level. GBP/USD is stable around 1.2970 as the US Dollar falters with soft economic data and trade tensions. Investors look forward to major policy decisions by the Fed and Bank of England that might propel further action. A break above 1.3000 could be an indication of fresh bullish push for the pair. • GBP/USD hovers around 1.2970, backing off but staying strong below the pivotal 1.3000 level. • US Dollar is still susceptible to weakness with poor economic numbers and escalating trade tensions. • February US Retail Sales increased just 0.2%, falling short and sparking concerns over consumer spending. • Markets anticipate the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates steady in Wednesday’s policy meeting. • US Dollar Index (DXY) stands near 103.50 but remains exposed to losses. • Bank of England is also likely to keep rates unchanged on Thursday, underpinning GBP strength. • Pound Sterling can also be further supported by the BoE’s conservative approach in the face of inflation and growth worries. The GBP/USD currency pair is maintaining its ground as market attention turns to pivotal central bank announcements this week. Investors are monitoring closely the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve, where there is no rate change expected, but the focus is still on the tone of the Fed on future economic conditions. Recent US data, specifically weaker retail sales numbers, has worried investors on the strength of consumer spending and the overall economic prospect. In addition, trade policy and global economic stability uncertainties are weighing on the optimism of investors and putting pressure on the US Doller. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling is being supported by hopes that the Bank of England will stick with its present interest rate policy when it meets later. The central bank is walking a tightrope between containing sticky inflation and responding to easing economic growth. While the UK economy also has its challenges, the prudent policy stance of the BoE is steadying sentiment towards the British Pound. As both central banks take a wait-and-watch stance, the overall market environment remains influenced by economic data and world events. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is now consolidating just below the psychological 1.3000 level, with 1.2970 serving as the immediate support area. Any prolonged break above 1.3000 might make way for additional bullish follow-through, perhaps heading higher towards broader resistance levels. Conversely, any break beneath 1.2950 could see near-term selling pressure, but overall, the pair remains in a bullish inclination so long as it remains above key moving averages. Traders will be looking for price action at these levels to confirm the next direction. FORECAST If the GBP/USD currency pair is able to hold above the 1.3000 psychological level, it could open the way to more upside momentum. A clean break above this level could lead to buyers driving the pair to the next resistance areas around 1.3050 and 1.3100. Bulls around the Pound, backed by the Bank of England’s firm policy direction and the US Dollar’s weakness, may also continue to propel bullish strength. Any sign of dovishness from the Federal Reserve or further disappointing US economic data could also add more to upward pressure on the pair. To the downside, in the event that GBP/USD cannot resist below the 1.2950–1.2970 support zone, the pair might temporarily retreat. A fall below this level could trigger additional losses to 1.2900 or even 1.2850 in the near term. The US Dollar might regain momentum if the Fed turns more hawkish or if risk appetite declines in international markets. Moreover, any unexpected change in the Bank of England’s expectations or poor UK economic indicators may cap the rally potential and pull the Pound back.

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Target 1.2724 In Continuing Uptrend

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  • March 4, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair trades below the 1.2700 level at a three-month high, looking bullish in an uptrend channel formation. The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating firm momentum, while the pair stays above the nine- and 14-day EMAs to confirm short-term strength. Near-term resistance is at 1.2724, with further potential gains to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 figure. On the negative side, early support is at 1.2639, then 1.2613, with a break below having the potential to undermine the bullish bias and leave the pair vulnerable to 1.2560. A firm fall below the channel could take losses down to the three-month low of 1.2249. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD has immediate resistance at 1.2724, with a possible breakout taking it to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 level in the near term. • The nine-day EMA at 1.2639 is also main support, with a breakdown below potentially undermining bullish momentum and sending the pair to 1.2560. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum and backing the expectation of further strength in the near term. • A clean break below the rising channel would change the trend bearish, leaving the pair vulnerable to the crucial support level of 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues in a bullish trend, trading below the 1.2700 level with the important resistance of 1.2724 in sight. A clean break above this level may take the pair to 1.2780 and the psychological level of 1.2800. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating ongoing bullish pressure, and the pair trading above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, affirming short-term strength. On the negative side, the nearest support is at 1.2639, with support at 1.2613 afterwards. A fall below these levels might undercut bullish sentiment, leaving a fall to 1.2560 or even the three-month low at 1.2249 if the rising channel breaks. GBP/USD is still bullish, trading below 1.2700 with major resistance at 1.2724. A breakout would take it to 1.2780, while support at 1.2639 would cap downside risks. A fall below the rising channel would undermine momentum, revealing 1.2249. • A breakout above this level would take GBP/USD to 1.2780 and the psychological resistance at 1.2800. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting ongoing strength and a bullish bias in the market. • These levels (nine- and 14-day EMAs) serve as integral support levels, holding off an anticipated downside action. • GBP/USD continues to trade within an upward-moving channel, emphasizing a bullish outlook in the near term. • A breach through the lower trend line of the upward-moving channel at 1.2560 may erode the bullish action. • Depending on bullish strength being maintained, GBP/USD may test 1.2800, which is a serious psychological resistance level. • A sharp fall below the 1.2560 support area may leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, testing the three-month low at 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues to attract attention from investors, mirroring the economic interactions between the US and the UK. Traders keenly monitor economic data releases, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical events impacting the pair’s price action. Other factors, including inflation reports, jobs reports, and monetary policies, also influence the market’s sentiment. Moreover, more general global events, such as trade policy and economic projections, also influence demand swings for both the British pound and the US dollar. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Risk appetite also influences the sentiment of the GBP/USD market, with currency flows affected. In periods of economic stability, traders tend to opt for riskier assets at the expense of the pound, while uncertainty tends to fuel demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven. The dynamic interaction between Bank of England monetary policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies is still the principal driver that guides long-term currency pair trends. Additionally, economic performance, political events, and trade relations in both nations will continue to influence market expectations, making GBP/USD an important pair to follow for forex traders and investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues in an uptrend channel, pointing to ongoing bull run. Price action continues to be above pivotal moving averages, supporting short-term strength, and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 showing consistent buying pressure. Resistance is seen at 1.2724, with a possible breakout setting the stage for further advances to 1.2780 and the psychological mark of 1.2800. On the other hand, near-term support is at 1.2639, with a break below having the potential to test the lower limit around 1.2560. A firm move below this level has the potential to change momentum in the bears’ favor, challenging the overall uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD might see its further ascend, particularly in case that momentum remains healthy on the bull and the pair gets past the resistance level of 1.2724.  A breach could open up even more strength all the way towards the subsequent level of resistance of 1.2780 before the psychologically charged level of 1.2800. Encouraging economic news in the UK, like better GDP growth, falling inflation, or a hawkish policy from the Bank of England, may continue to underpin the strength of the pound. A weaker US dollar, propelled by dovish messages from the Federal Reserve or risk-on flows in international markets, may also add to bullish pressure in the pair. To the downside, GBP/USD has major support at 1.2639, and a move below it will perhaps indicate the loss of momentum, triggering a fall to 1.2560. In case bearish pressure builds and the pair moves below the rising channel, a further fall is possible, with the next strong support being at 1.2500. Factors that may trigger a bearish perspective are dismal UK economic data, a tougher Federal Reserve line on interest rates, or heightened risk aversion in international markets that boosts demand for the US dollar. A more severe correction may leave GBP/USD open to additional downward risks, and potentially challenge the three-month trough of 1.2249 if selling pressures continue.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strength Fades as Range-Bound Trading Takes Center Stage

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  • February 28, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a range-bound stage following the recent two-week Pound Sterling strength that has now faded. According to analysts at UOB Group, although the sharp decline in GBP may be prolonged, oversold levels point to any drop being contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 level. A decisive dip below 1.2570 is not anticipated in the short term, with the overall expectation for GBP/USD to trade between 1.2520 and 1.2670. This transition represents the end of bullish momentum, with a phase of consolidation for the currency pair now to follow. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is likely to trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range, indicating the end of its recent bullish momentum. • As the Pound fell sharply, the oversold market conditions indicate that downside may be contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 band. • The support level is at 1.2570, and resistance is at about 1.2670, outlining the possible trading limits for GBP/USD. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the erosion of bullish momentum, which points towards consolidation instead of further advance. The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a consolidation mode, with the recent bullish trend having lost steam, according to analysts. The sudden decline of the Pound Sterling indicates possible further falls, yet oversold levels suggest the downside may not be extensive within the 1.2570–1.2640 zone. Major support is at 1.2570, while the resistance lies around 1.2670, which is the likely trading range in the near future. The break of 1.2615 validated the reversal of the uptrend, moving the outlook towards a range-bound move instead of an extension of the rally. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range as market sentiment transforms. GBP/USD has turned range-bound, with support at 1.2570 and resistance at 1.2670. Oversold levels indicate limited downside, while momentum changes point towards consolidation in the offing. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range. • GBP/USD should trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range as bullish momentum ebbs. • The sudden fall in GBP in recent times indicates further decline, but oversold levels might restrict downward movement. • 1.2570 is the key support level, and 1.2670 is close to the resistance level, setting the range for expected trading. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the reversal of GBP’s recent strength, and a consolidation phase was indicated. • It is possible for further dips to occur, with a clean breakdown below 1.2570 being improbable in the short run. • Markets need to keep an eye out for movements in the range with changes in sentiment and economic inputs determining GBP/USD prices. • The currency pair will more likely be sideways until new driving factors create a breakout beyond these set levels. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a stable phase at present, with investors following its trend closely. The movement of GBP/USD depends on general economic factors like inflation rates, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical factors, which dictate the value of currencies. Market sentiment is of utmost importance for determining the movement of GBP/USD, with investors evaluating economic policies and overall financial trends. Furthermore, external influences such as trade relations and central bank policies play a role in determining the long-term direction of the currency pair. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView During this phase, market participants are focusing on strategic decision-making according to market trends and fundamental indicators. The influence of financial institutions, economic reports, and policy announcements remains important in determining expectations. Knowledge of the overall economic environment is vital in making trading decisions, as global market conditions and investor sentiment significantly influence currency stability. Keeping abreast of major economic events and financial news continues to be important for those following the GBP/USD pair in today’s environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair shows a consolidation period, with the currency trading in a well-defined range. Major support is seen at 1.2570, and resistance at 1.2670 indicates limited short-term price movement. The break below 1.2615 reinforced the weakening of bullish energy, forming a range-bound pattern. Moving averages and RSI point towards neutral to weakly bearish sentiment, although oversold readings indicate stabilization potential. Traders are awaiting a breakout of this range, which may lead to the pair’s next directional move. FORECAST GBP/USD may try to breach the 1.2670 resistance point if upbeat economic data or a weaker US Dollar propels it. Dovish Federal Reserve cues, solid UK economic growth, or tame inflation levels are some of the factors that can give a boost to further rallies. A prolonged breach above this level can be a sign of the possibility of a longer-term bullish trend. On the other hand, bearish risks persist if the bearish tone gets stronger and pushes below the critical 1.2570 support. Deterioration in UK economic data, anxiety regarding interest rate policies, or a rise in the US Dollar could weigh down on GBP/USD. Once the pair moves below this support, it may leave the stage open for deeper falls, at least testing lower levels in the weeks ahead. Traders should also keep a close eye on economic releases, central bank announcements, and market trends to predict probable price movements.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Continues as Crucial Support Levels Remain Unbroken

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  • February 25, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair continues to uphold its bullish trend, trading above the 1.2600 support level and still within an upward channel pattern. Technical analysis, such as the 14-day RSI at more than 50 and the price still above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, supports the short-term rising trend. Abrupt resistance is at 1.2690, the two-month high, with an additional target to the upside at 1.2811 and conceivably 1.2960 should the uptrend bias intensify. To the downside, support is found at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), with a break below these potentially causing a drop toward 1.2490, the lower end of the rising channel. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is confronted with short-term resistance at the two-month high of 1.2690; a break above might propel the pair to 1.2811 and beyond. • The nine-day EMA of 1.2597 is crucial short-term support; a fall below might undermine momentum, resulting in a possible fall to 1.2490. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum and making further gains more likely if the trend continues. • The duo trades in an uptrend channel, with the price action on the side of further gains unless a breakdown at the lower edge at 1.2490 happens. GBP/USD pair remains in its bullish momentum, staying above the 1.2600 support level while trending in an ascending channel pattern. The pair meets short-term resistance at 1.2690, a two-month high, with additional room for further upside to 1.2811 and 1.2960 if the bullish momentum continues. Key support levels to look out for are 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a break below these levels may result in a fall towards 1.2490, the lower end of the channel. The 14-day RSI level above 50 confirms further uptrend, strengthening strong short-term price action and suggesting scope for further rises. GBP/USD currency pair continues with its upward strength, staying above 1.2600 support in an upward channel. The resistance is at 1.2690, while the support is at 1.2597. Above-50 RSI of the 14-day period indicates strength to continue, with potential to move further upwards if the trend continues. • GBP/USD is still in an uptrend channel, keeping gains above 1.2600 support. • Breaking above this two-month high has the potential to send the pair up to 1.2811 and above. • The nine-day EMA is the initial support, then 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and 1.2490. • Shows bullish strength, meaning the pair can continue its rise. • Price is above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, ensuring short-term bullish momentum. • If the resistance levels are broken, the pair could head to the upper edge of the channel. • A fall below 1.2490 may douse the bullish sentiment and create a reversal. GBP/USD currency pair remains to show resilience in the market, underpinned by a stable trading scenario. Investor sentiment towards the British pound continues to be positive, fueled by general economic circumstances and market sentiments. The currency pair shows a steady trend, mirroring the continued economic engagement between the UK and the US. Traders are following closely major developments such as monetary policies, inflation figures, and economic indicators that could affect long-term price action. Market participants are still active, evaluating possible opportunities while monitoring overall macroeconomic trends. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA GBP/USD is still the area of interest for investors and traders who want stability and growth. As the overall economic environment changes, trade relations, central bank policy, and geopolitics become major contributors to market dynamics. The capacity of the pair to maintain momentum showcases the equilibrium between demand and supply, as well as the faith in each economy. Market trends are still being watched by traders, making adjustments in their strategies according to economic analysis and sector developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bullish framework, trading in an ascending channel pattern and above critical support levels. 14-day RSI is still above 50, which signals ongoing positive momentum, and the pair remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, confirming short-term strength. Short-term resistance is at 1.2690, with additional upside targets of 1.2811 and 1.2960 in case bullish momentum continues. On the negative side, major support levels are at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a possible pullback to 1.2490 if there is increased selling pressure. Overall, technical indicators point towards an extension of the uptrend unless major support levels are breached. FORECAST GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bullish outlook, with a possibility of extending gains if it breaks above major resistance levels. Successful breakout of 1.2690 would take the pair up towards 1.2811, the three-month high, followed by the ceiling of the upward channel at 1.2960. The pair continues to be sustained by robust short-term moving averages, supporting the chance of more up movement. On the expectation of favorable market mood, given stability in economics and a weak US dollar, GBP/USD is likely to maintain its strength with increased buying appetite. GBP/USD is at risk of going lower if it is unable to maintain above important support levels. Breaking below 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) may weaken the near-term trend, which can result in a possible test of 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and further to 1.2490, the lower limit of the rising channel. In the event of intensified selling pressure on account of unforeseen macroeconomic developments or a change in market sentiment, the pair may move lower, testing lower supports. A move below 1.2490 can confirm a stronger correction, flipping the near-term bias to bearish.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Stays Strong Above 1.2650 on Soft US Jobless Claims and UK Economic Volatility

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  • February 21, 2025
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GBP/USD stays strong at above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar falters on weak jobless claims figures. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 219,000, topping forecasts, and mixed messages from Federal Reserve policymakers contributed to uncertainty in the market. Optimism in the wake of possible US-China trade developments supported the pair further. Nevertheless, fears over UK economic prospects remain, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issuing warnings regarding sluggish growth and a deteriorating labor market. A better-than-expected UK CPI release did little to quash Bailey’s description of the inflation surge as transient, leaving traders wary of impending policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • The increase in US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 led to a weakening US Dollar, supporting GBP/USD but also creating doubts regarding labor market stability. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issued a warning of slow growth and easing labor market, casting further doubts on the long-term Pound Sterling strength. • Uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate cuts by Fed officials sends mixed signals to traders, affecting market sentiment and GBPCAD price action. • Relief from potential gains in US-China trade negotiations alleviated market concerns, and it added further to support for GBP/USD in the short run. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, supported by a softer US Dollar on the back of increasing jobless claims and conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. The rising US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 indicated potential labor market weakness, weighed on the USD and helped the Pound Sterling. In the meantime, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s caution regarding the slow UK economic growth and weakening labor market kept investors wary of the strength of the GBP. On the other hand, optimism over possible US-China trade negotiations progress gave risk assets some bullish push. But the uncertainty lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve is considering inflation risks and possible rate reductions, making the future direction of GBP/USD reliant on future economic releases and policy actions. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, helped by a weaker US Dollar on rising jobless claims and conflicting Fed cues. UK economic worries still exist, as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of slow growth. In contrast, hopes regarding US-China trade negotiations provide some bullish push, though market volatility still exists. • The pair continues to remain above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar weakens. • First-Time Jobless Claims rose to 219,000, beating forecasts and hinting at potential weakness in the labor market. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned of weak UK growth and a declining labor market. • A more-than-forecasted UK CPI report temporarily pushed the Pound higher, but Bailey dismissed its longer-term relevance. • Fed officials are still skeptical of inflation and upcoming rate reductions, leaving traders on their guard. • Encouraging trade negotiation news between the US and China supported market sentiment somewhat. • Future direction of GBP/USD will be based on future economic indicators, central bank actions, and international trade dynamics. GBP/USD continues to be in the spotlight as the global economic landscape influences market mood. Recent economic data indicate the concern over US labor market stability, with an increase in jobless claims pointing towards possible economic difficulties. In the meantime, in the UK, economic growth and inflation remain among the topics of debate, with policymakers weighing external influences, including global trade patterns and monetary policy, that could affect stability over the longer term. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has sounded a note of caution on the UK’s muted growth and changing labor market dynamics, indicating the importance of prudent policy decisions over the next few months. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Globally, there has been some relief for investors from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks, which has alleviated concerns over higher tariffs and possible supply chain disruption. Also, Federal Reserve officials have given conflicting opinions on inflation trends and future interest rate actions, further confusing financial markets. With both the US and UK economies going through tough times, market players are paying close attention to economic events and central bank actions that may determine financial conditions in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD still trades above important support levels, with its bullish trend close to recent highs. The pair recently reached a two-month high of 1.2674, reflecting strong buying interest. The price stays over the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an upward trend. Yet, resistance in the vicinity of 1.2700 can be a test, while short-term support is seen around 1.2600. Momentum indicators like the RSI indicate that the pair is heading towards overbought levels, so it can result in short-term consolidation prior to the next big move. Traders will be looking for confirmation cues to see if the pair is capable of maintaining its upward move or experience a pullback. FORECAST GBP/USD might continue to climb if sentiment remains bullish in the markets and economic indicators support the Pound. An extended breakout over the major resistance of 1.2700 might create opportunities for additional upward momentum, and the next critical resistance levels might be found near 1.2750 and 1.2800. Any weakness in upcoming US economic data, particularly in employment or inflation figures, could pressure the US Dollar further, allowing GBP/USD to climb higher. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance or hints at potential rate cuts sooner than expected, the Pound may find additional support. Positive developments in global trade, particularly between the US and China, could also boost risk appetite and drive demand for GBP. To the negative, GBP/USD can be pressured if economic issues in the UK become more severe or if risk appetite declines. Failure to stay above 1.2600 support could result in weakening towards 1.2550 and 1.2500. Any indication of UK economic data worsening, particularly in growth and employment, would cause market sentiment to turn against the Pound. Also, if the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish, shoving back rate cut expectations, the US Dollar

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Appreciates on Market Sentiment: GBP/USD Tests Critical Resistance as Investors Look to Economic Releases

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) has appreciated against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment continues to improve. Investor sentiment has improved after President Trump’s moderated approach to tariffs and continued talks of a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Yet, doubts persist regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as the most recent FOMC minutes emphasize ongoing inflation threats from possible tariff effects. The economic outlook for the UK is also uncertain, with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey indicating weak growth and labor market deceleration. The British pound is capped at 1.2620, with future UK Retail Sales and S&P Global PMI figures set to dictate further price movements. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales report, which will give them an idea of consumer spending patterns and the general health of the UK economy. • The initial UK and US PMI readings for February will reflect economic activity patterns and may determine the short-term direction of the Pound Sterling. • FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates based on inflation threats, which could maintain the US Dollar strong against the Pound Sterling. • The 1.2620 level of resistance and 1.2250 support zone are very important in specifying the next possible breakout or correction in the currency pair. The Pound Sterling’s shift against the US Dollar is dependent on several significant determinants, such as future UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI reports, due to release and offering new economic activity and consumer confidence insights. As for its counterpart, the Federal Reserve’s recent conservative position regarding interest rates, reflected in the most recent FOMC minutes, emphasizes inflationary pressures fueled by possible US tariff measures. This could keep the US Dollar strong, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. On the technical front, the pair faces resistance at 1.2620, aligned with the 100-day EMA, while key support rests at 1.2250. Market sentiment remains a key driver, with geopolitical developments and risk appetite influencing short-term trends. The Pound Sterling’s action against the US Dollar continues to be guided by UK Retail Sales figures, PMI data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance. With 1.2620 acting as resistance and 1.2250 as support, geopolitical concerns and market sentiment will dictate the direction of the currency pair. • GBP/USD is trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment picks up pace, boosted by diminishing fears about Trump’s tariff policies and optimism in geopolitics. • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales figures, which will give an indication of consumer expenditure and possible economic recovery. • The UK and US February preliminary PMI figures will be instrumental in determining business activity and economic resilience. • The FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates as a result of inflation fears, which may favor the US Dollar. • UK CPI increased more than expected, but the BoE is still hesitant to cut rates further due to economic weakness. • GBP/USD is resisted at 1.2620 and major support at 1.2250, where it will make its next move. • Market sentiment is influenced by news regarding Trump’s trade policies and continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The movement of the Pound Sterling is now being dictated by wider economic and geopolitical events. Investors are following UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI closely, which will paint a clearer picture of economic activity and consumer confidence. A better-than-anticipated retail performance will indicate strength in the UK economy, while PMI figures will reveal business conditions in the UK and US. Also, recent inflation data have indicated a short-term spike, and as a result, the Bank of England has kept monetary policy tight. Governor Andrew Bailey has already cautioned that growth could be slow, and any additional policy moves will be based on new data. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the international front, market sentiment has been better because of a more cautious approach by President Trump on trade policies. Although early fears about tariffs on Chinese imports and other major sectors caused volatility, Trump’s recent statements on a potential trade deal with China have calmed fears. But uncertainty persists as there is no clear plan on tariff implementation. While meanwhile, talks on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have also fostered a risk-positive sentiment, though Ukraine dismissed any agreement in the absence of its direct participation. As conditions in the world economy and politics change, investors will be careful, keeping an eye on critical events that would affect market stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is fighting to sustain above the 1.2600 level, and resistance is situated at 1.2620, which is coinciding with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The duo is now oscillating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, calculated from the September-end high to the January-middle low, which represents a key area for possible breakout or pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is barely managing to stay above 60.00, and if it fails to hold above this level, it could signal weakening bullish momentum. On the negative side, major support is at 1.2250, and a fall below this level may initiate further selling pressure. To have a stronger uptrend, GBP/USD must break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2767, which would signal a continuation of bullish sentiment. FORECAST The potential for the upside in GBP/USD relies on better market sentiment and major economic data releases. If UK Retail Sales for January and February S&P Global PMI reports surpass predictions, this is likely to be a confidence booster for the UK economy, driving the Pound upward. Favorable change in Brexit developments or better-than-forecasted employment statistics are additional strengths for the currency. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve is hinting at a softer approach towards interest rates in light of slowing inflation, the US Dollar might depreciate, leaving GBP/USD more space to move upwards. Breaking above the resistance level of 1.2620 might signal more upward gains towards the 1.2767 area, suggesting positive momentum. On the negative, any indication of economic weakness within the UK, for example poor retail sales or a fall

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Falls Before UK Labor Market Figures: Most Important Factors Contributing to the Market Decline

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  • February 18, 2025
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GBP/USD has fallen around 1.2600 before important UK labor market figures, ending its five-day streak of gains. Traders expect an increase in unemployment and claimant count, which may weigh on the British Pound. UK PM Keir Starmer’s demand for a “US backstop” in a Ukraine peace agreement also brings geopolitical uncertainty. On the American side, the Dollar rallies on increasing Treasury yields and dovish Fed comments, with policymakers reiterating that inflation threats remain. From a technical point of view, GBP/USD is approaching major support at 1.2600, with additional selling potential if numbers are disappointing. Investors are closely watching UK job data and Fed policy cues for the next move. KEY LOOKOUTS • UK labor figures are awaited by traders, as the unemployment rate is predicted to increase to 4.5%, influencing GBP/USD. • UK PM Keir Starmer demands any peace agreement for Ukraine should come with a “US backstop” to prevent future Russian incursions. • Higher US Treasury yields and hawkish tone of Fed policymakers maintain the US Dollar strong, exerting pressure on GBP/USD. • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautions against ongoing inflation risks, proposing additional data should be seen before cuts in interest rates. GBP/USD comes under selling pressure, falling around 1.2600 as market participants look forward to pivotal UK labor market information. The anticipated increase in unemployment and claimant count might act as a drag on the British Pound. In the meantime, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed the importance of a “US backstop” in any peace deal for Ukraine to discourage further Russian aggression. Conversely, the US Dollar strengthens as Treasury yields rise, buoyed by dovish comments from Fed officials. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman cautioned that inflation risks remain, indicating that more clarity is required before rate cuts can be considered. These together form the near-term direction for GBP/USD. GBP/USD falls close to 1.2600 as markets await UK labor figures, where unemployment is anticipated to increase. Meanwhile, the US Dollar firm up due to higher Treasury yields and dovish stance of Fed officials regarding inflation. UK PM Keir Starmer’s demand for a “US backstop” in peace negotiations for Ukraine brings in geopolitical risk. • The duo falls to around 1.2600 prior to the highly important UK labor market numbers, snapping its five-day success run. • The jobless rate is expected to climb to 4.5%, while the claimant count should increase by 10K, which will influence GBP sentiment. • UK PM Keir Starmer emphasizes that any peace agreement for Ukraine must be accompanied by a “US backstop” to prevent Russian aggression in the future. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounces back on the back of surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed comments, putting pressure on GBP/USD. • Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterates ongoing inflation threats, emphasizing added clarity is necessary before rate cuts are on the cards. • Investors hold back following Fed Governor Waller’s concession of slower inflation gains, adding to doubt on monetary policy action. • Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty propel GBP/USD volatility, and investors are focusing intently on forthcoming data announcements. GBP/USD has declined close to 1.2600 prior to the release of UK labor market data, bringing an end to its five consecutive days of advances. Investors closely observe the job numbers, which are anticipated to increase the unemployment rate to 4.5% and to grow the claimant count by 10K. A weaker-than-expected labor market could weigh further on the British Pound, adding to its recent decline. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized the need for a “US backstop” in any Ukraine peace deal to prevent future Russian aggression, adding a geopolitical dimension to market sentiment.  GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the American side, the Dollar is strengthening on the back of rising Treasury yields and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen after three consecutive days of decline as 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 4.27% and 4.51%, respectively. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has cautioned that inflation risks are still high and cautioned against moves to cut rates before more clarity is evident. In the same vein, Fed Governor Christopher Waller recognized sluggish progress in curbing inflation, cementing doubt about future policy action. All these factors combined point to GBP/USD’s bearish risk as investors wait for crucial economic indicators. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is confronted with short-term support around the 1.2600 psychological mark, with a further drop possibly challenging the 1.2570 and 1.2530 support levels. A fall below these levels may create room for a more significant pullback to 1.2500. On the positive side, resistance is observed at 1.2650, followed by the recent high at 1.2700. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also turning down, reflecting bearish momentum, while the 50-day moving average at 1.2620 may serve as a dynamic resistance. Traders will be observing if GBP/USD can maintain above crucial support levels or continue its downside move in the face of fundamental pressures.  FORECAST If the UK labor market data surprises positively, showing resilience in employment figures, GBP/USD could regain strength. A better-than-expected jobs report might boost investor confidence in the British economy, pushing the pair towards the 1.2650 resistance level. If buying momentum continues, the next upside target would be 1.2700, followed by 1.2750, where significant resistance lies. Also, any dovish indications from the Federal Reserve for upcoming rate cuts may bring down the US Dollar, which will help propel a GBP/USD recovery. Conversely, if UK jobs data fail to impress with rising unemployment and an increased claimant count, GBP/USD may witness selling pressure. A fall below the important 1.2600 support could see further declines towards 1.2570 and 1.2530. Further, a more hawkish US Dollar, fueled by Fed hawkish commentary and an increase in Treasury yields, may hasten the losses. Should bearish pressure continue, GBP/USD might fall to the 1.2500 psychological support, testing 1.2450 in a protracted downtrend.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Struggles Below 50-Day SMA: Vulnerable to Further Decline Amid USD Strength

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  • February 10, 2025
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GBP/USD maintains its weakness near the 1.2400 level, with the pair still unable to gain intraday ground as the US Dollar continues its strength. The currency pair is under headwinds as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England diverge in their outlooks. The Fed will likely keep rates steady due to strong US employment data and growing inflation concerns as a result of Trump’s tariff policies. Technically, repeated failures near the 50-day SMA suggest a bearish bias, and the downside risks are increasing below the 1.2375 support. Any rebound towards 1.2500 may face selling pressure, while a breakdown below 1.2300 could accelerate losses toward mid-1.2200s and beyond. KEY LOOKOUTS • The 1.2500 psychological level remains a strong resistance; a decisive breakout could trigger further gains toward 1.2575-1.2600 in the near term. • Persistent failures near the 50-day SMA indicate a bearish trend, suggesting that any upside attempt may face strong resistance and selling pressure. • The GBP/USD is still limited from a meaningful recovery and a decline in its downward movements as a stronger US Dollar continues, spurred by the threat of Trump’s tariffs and Fed’s stable rate stance. • A convincing breakdown below the support zone 1.2375-1.2370 would accelerate losses toward the 1.2300 round number and further below mid-1.2200s. The GBP/USD remains vulnerable and struggles to hold ground above 1.2400, as the bearish pressure mounts below the 50-day SMA. A stronger US Dollar, given the tariff policies of Trump and the steady rate outlook from the Fed, is limiting any meaningful upside. The key resistance at 1.2500 remains a ceiling, and thus an important level to be reclaimed by bulls. The downside is potentially accelerated toward the 1.2300 mark if a support zone around 1.2375 is breached, with additional downside potential stretching into mid-1.2200s. Traders are looking for a major US economic data and BoE policy signals flow to catch fresh momentum. GBP/USD is suffering below the 50-day SMA, with 1.2500 acting as a strong resistance bar; if it breaks below 1.2375, another fall towards 1.2300 can be expected. US Dollars are gaining across Fed policies and due to Trump’s continued toughness on tariffs, making the pair vulnerable. • Repeated failures near the 50-day SMA indicate a bearish bias, keeping the pair vulnerable to further declines. • Any rebound faces strong resistance at 1.2500; a breakout above this level could signal a potential trend reversal. • A decisive break below this key support zone may accelerate losses toward 1.2300 and mid-1.2200s. • The USD remains strong due to Fed’s rate outlook and Trump’s tariff policies, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. • The economy growth warning from the Bank of England is a major factor continuously straining the GBP with higher downside risks. • Additional strength in US employment and inflation concerns can further help support the Dollar and weigh on the GBP/USD. • Global risk appetite, geopolitical news, and various economic data are likely to drive the next move of the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD remains in selling pressures, as it fails to break above the 50-day simple moving average, which forms a very strong resistance. Now, the psychological level of 1.2500 acts as a big barrier for the pair, and unless the pair decisively breaks above that, any move northward will likely face selling pressure. On the downside, immediate support lies around 1.2375-1.2370, and a break below this zone could accelerate losses towards the 1.2300 round figure, with further downside potential extending to mid-1.2200s. The Bank of England’s cautious economic outlook and subdued market confidence in the UK economy add to the bearish sentiment, keeping the pair vulnerable. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA The US Dollar is firm because of the positive employment data and expectations that interest rates by the Federal Reserve are going to remain steady. Additionally, new policies on tariffs introduced by Trump have further added fuel to the fire of inflationary concerns, which could support the USD and cap the recovery of GBP/USD. Market sentiment and risk appetite will be other important factors to determine the direction of the pair. Traders should closely watch upcoming US economic data releases and any shifts in the Fed-BoE policy divergence for fresh trading cues. Until GBP/USD breaks above its key resistance zones, the path of least resistance appears to be downward. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains bearish as it struggles below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing selling pressure. The pair is facing stiff resistance at the 1.2500 psychological level, and only a decisive break above this could trigger further upside towards 1.2575-1.2600. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2375-1.2370, and a sustained break below this zone could accelerate declines toward 1.2300 and mid-1.2200s. The overall setup favors bears, with momentum indicators like RSI and MACD tilting towards further downside. Until the pair recovers its key resistance, selling on rallies is a good strategy. FORECAST GBP/USD is likely to rally if it breaks decisively above the key resistance at 1.2500. A break above that area could propel a bullish move to the 1.2575-1.2600 region, where another resistance barrier awaits. If momentum continues, the pair may surge further toward 1.2645-1.2650, and challenge the 100-day SMA around 1.2715-1.2720. A shift in market sentiment, positive UK economic data, or signs of a more hawkish Bank of England (BoE) stance could provide additional fuel for the recovery. GBP/USD remains vulnerable as long as it trades below the 50-day SMA, with immediate support at 1.2375-1.2370. A breakdown below this level could intensify selling pressure, pushing the pair toward the 1.2300 round figure. If the bearish momentum continues, the next strong support will be seen at mid-1.2200s, and then the 1.2175 area. The strengthening US Dollar, due to solid rate outlook of the Federal Reserve and Trump’s tariff policies, will continue to cap the upside, and this makes the GBP/USD vulnerable to deeper losses.

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