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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Target 1.2724 In Continuing Uptrend

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  • March 4, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair trades below the 1.2700 level at a three-month high, looking bullish in an uptrend channel formation. The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating firm momentum, while the pair stays above the nine- and 14-day EMAs to confirm short-term strength. Near-term resistance is at 1.2724, with further potential gains to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 figure. On the negative side, early support is at 1.2639, then 1.2613, with a break below having the potential to undermine the bullish bias and leave the pair vulnerable to 1.2560. A firm fall below the channel could take losses down to the three-month low of 1.2249. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD has immediate resistance at 1.2724, with a possible breakout taking it to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 level in the near term. • The nine-day EMA at 1.2639 is also main support, with a breakdown below potentially undermining bullish momentum and sending the pair to 1.2560. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum and backing the expectation of further strength in the near term. • A clean break below the rising channel would change the trend bearish, leaving the pair vulnerable to the crucial support level of 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues in a bullish trend, trading below the 1.2700 level with the important resistance of 1.2724 in sight. A clean break above this level may take the pair to 1.2780 and the psychological level of 1.2800. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating ongoing bullish pressure, and the pair trading above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, affirming short-term strength. On the negative side, the nearest support is at 1.2639, with support at 1.2613 afterwards. A fall below these levels might undercut bullish sentiment, leaving a fall to 1.2560 or even the three-month low at 1.2249 if the rising channel breaks. GBP/USD is still bullish, trading below 1.2700 with major resistance at 1.2724. A breakout would take it to 1.2780, while support at 1.2639 would cap downside risks. A fall below the rising channel would undermine momentum, revealing 1.2249. • A breakout above this level would take GBP/USD to 1.2780 and the psychological resistance at 1.2800. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting ongoing strength and a bullish bias in the market. • These levels (nine- and 14-day EMAs) serve as integral support levels, holding off an anticipated downside action. • GBP/USD continues to trade within an upward-moving channel, emphasizing a bullish outlook in the near term. • A breach through the lower trend line of the upward-moving channel at 1.2560 may erode the bullish action. • Depending on bullish strength being maintained, GBP/USD may test 1.2800, which is a serious psychological resistance level. • A sharp fall below the 1.2560 support area may leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, testing the three-month low at 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues to attract attention from investors, mirroring the economic interactions between the US and the UK. Traders keenly monitor economic data releases, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical events impacting the pair’s price action. Other factors, including inflation reports, jobs reports, and monetary policies, also influence the market’s sentiment. Moreover, more general global events, such as trade policy and economic projections, also influence demand swings for both the British pound and the US dollar. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Risk appetite also influences the sentiment of the GBP/USD market, with currency flows affected. In periods of economic stability, traders tend to opt for riskier assets at the expense of the pound, while uncertainty tends to fuel demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven. The dynamic interaction between Bank of England monetary policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies is still the principal driver that guides long-term currency pair trends. Additionally, economic performance, political events, and trade relations in both nations will continue to influence market expectations, making GBP/USD an important pair to follow for forex traders and investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues in an uptrend channel, pointing to ongoing bull run. Price action continues to be above pivotal moving averages, supporting short-term strength, and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 showing consistent buying pressure. Resistance is seen at 1.2724, with a possible breakout setting the stage for further advances to 1.2780 and the psychological mark of 1.2800. On the other hand, near-term support is at 1.2639, with a break below having the potential to test the lower limit around 1.2560. A firm move below this level has the potential to change momentum in the bears’ favor, challenging the overall uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD might see its further ascend, particularly in case that momentum remains healthy on the bull and the pair gets past the resistance level of 1.2724.  A breach could open up even more strength all the way towards the subsequent level of resistance of 1.2780 before the psychologically charged level of 1.2800. Encouraging economic news in the UK, like better GDP growth, falling inflation, or a hawkish policy from the Bank of England, may continue to underpin the strength of the pound. A weaker US dollar, propelled by dovish messages from the Federal Reserve or risk-on flows in international markets, may also add to bullish pressure in the pair. To the downside, GBP/USD has major support at 1.2639, and a move below it will perhaps indicate the loss of momentum, triggering a fall to 1.2560. In case bearish pressure builds and the pair moves below the rising channel, a further fall is possible, with the next strong support being at 1.2500. Factors that may trigger a bearish perspective are dismal UK economic data, a tougher Federal Reserve line on interest rates, or heightened risk aversion in international markets that boosts demand for the US dollar. A more severe correction may leave GBP/USD open to additional downward risks, and potentially challenge the three-month trough of 1.2249 if selling pressures continue.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Strength Fades as Range-Bound Trading Takes Center Stage

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  • February 28, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a range-bound stage following the recent two-week Pound Sterling strength that has now faded. According to analysts at UOB Group, although the sharp decline in GBP may be prolonged, oversold levels point to any drop being contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 level. A decisive dip below 1.2570 is not anticipated in the short term, with the overall expectation for GBP/USD to trade between 1.2520 and 1.2670. This transition represents the end of bullish momentum, with a phase of consolidation for the currency pair now to follow. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is likely to trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range, indicating the end of its recent bullish momentum. • As the Pound fell sharply, the oversold market conditions indicate that downside may be contained within the 1.2570–1.2640 band. • The support level is at 1.2570, and resistance is at about 1.2670, outlining the possible trading limits for GBP/USD. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the erosion of bullish momentum, which points towards consolidation instead of further advance. The GBP/USD currency pair has moved into a consolidation mode, with the recent bullish trend having lost steam, according to analysts. The sudden decline of the Pound Sterling indicates possible further falls, yet oversold levels suggest the downside may not be extensive within the 1.2570–1.2640 zone. Major support is at 1.2570, while the resistance lies around 1.2670, which is the likely trading range in the near future. The break of 1.2615 validated the reversal of the uptrend, moving the outlook towards a range-bound move instead of an extension of the rally. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range as market sentiment transforms. GBP/USD has turned range-bound, with support at 1.2570 and resistance at 1.2670. Oversold levels indicate limited downside, while momentum changes point towards consolidation in the offing. Traders are to look for possible volatility within this range. • GBP/USD should trade in a 1.2520–1.2670 range as bullish momentum ebbs. • The sudden fall in GBP in recent times indicates further decline, but oversold levels might restrict downward movement. • 1.2570 is the key support level, and 1.2670 is close to the resistance level, setting the range for expected trading. • A break of 1.2615 sealed the reversal of GBP’s recent strength, and a consolidation phase was indicated. • It is possible for further dips to occur, with a clean breakdown below 1.2570 being improbable in the short run. • Markets need to keep an eye out for movements in the range with changes in sentiment and economic inputs determining GBP/USD prices. • The currency pair will more likely be sideways until new driving factors create a breakout beyond these set levels. The GBP/USD currency pair is in a stable phase at present, with investors following its trend closely. The movement of GBP/USD depends on general economic factors like inflation rates, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical factors, which dictate the value of currencies. Market sentiment is of utmost importance for determining the movement of GBP/USD, with investors evaluating economic policies and overall financial trends. Furthermore, external influences such as trade relations and central bank policies play a role in determining the long-term direction of the currency pair. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView During this phase, market participants are focusing on strategic decision-making according to market trends and fundamental indicators. The influence of financial institutions, economic reports, and policy announcements remains important in determining expectations. Knowledge of the overall economic environment is vital in making trading decisions, as global market conditions and investor sentiment significantly influence currency stability. Keeping abreast of major economic events and financial news continues to be important for those following the GBP/USD pair in today’s environment. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD pair shows a consolidation period, with the currency trading in a well-defined range. Major support is seen at 1.2570, and resistance at 1.2670 indicates limited short-term price movement. The break below 1.2615 reinforced the weakening of bullish energy, forming a range-bound pattern. Moving averages and RSI point towards neutral to weakly bearish sentiment, although oversold readings indicate stabilization potential. Traders are awaiting a breakout of this range, which may lead to the pair’s next directional move. FORECAST GBP/USD may try to breach the 1.2670 resistance point if upbeat economic data or a weaker US Dollar propels it. Dovish Federal Reserve cues, solid UK economic growth, or tame inflation levels are some of the factors that can give a boost to further rallies. A prolonged breach above this level can be a sign of the possibility of a longer-term bullish trend. On the other hand, bearish risks persist if the bearish tone gets stronger and pushes below the critical 1.2570 support. Deterioration in UK economic data, anxiety regarding interest rate policies, or a rise in the US Dollar could weigh down on GBP/USD. Once the pair moves below this support, it may leave the stage open for deeper falls, at least testing lower levels in the weeks ahead. Traders should also keep a close eye on economic releases, central bank announcements, and market trends to predict probable price movements.

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