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GBP/USD Drops to Three-Week Low as Positive US Data Bolsters the Dollar Ahead of Major Inflation Report

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  • September 25, 2025
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British Pound (GBP) dropped to its three-week low versus the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with GBP/USD going below the 1.3400 level to trade at around 1.3366, as favorable US economic data fueled demand for the Greenback. Sturdy releases, such as a vicious quarter-upward revision of Q2 GDP to 3.8%, beneath-expectation initial jobless claims of 218K, and an August Durable Goods Orders 2.9% leap, supported faith in the US economy. Although core PCE inflation in Q2 modestly increased to 2.6%, market participants already await Friday’s report on August core PCE, which is set to give essential information regarding the next steps of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. In the meantime, Fed officials are implying a “slightly restrictive” policy, weighing inflation worries against a primarily healthy labor market. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders are keeping an eye on the August core PCE reading, which may shape the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate moves. • Solid GDP growth, high durable goods orders, and low unemployment claims underpin the US Dollar and may continue to hold GBP/USD in check. • Fed officials’ comments indicate a “slightly restrictive” monetary policy, emphasizing balancing inflation with labor market stability. • GBP/USD is around the 1.3360–1.3400 level, and any move below this level can generate further bearish momentum. GBP/USD dipped to a three-week low as solid US economic data supported the US Dollar, with the pair falling below 1.3400 to quote around 1.3366. Strong US signals in the form of a revised Q2 growth of 3.8% GDP, below-forecast jobless claims, and a snapback in durable goods orders supported market optimism in the US economy. Traders are now focusing their attention on Friday’s core PCE inflation report, which is expected to be monitored closely for Fed hints on its next move in monetary policy, as Fed officials continue to stress a slightly restrictive tack under conditions of balanced labor market conditions. GBP/USD dropped to a three-week low around 1.3366 following robust US economic data that supported the Dollar. Investors now wait for Friday’s core PCE inflation reading to get cues on the Fed’s next step. • GBP/USD dipped below the 1.3400 level, hitting a three-week low around 1.3366. • Robust US GDP growth was revised sharply higher to 3.8% in Q2. • Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 218K, better than market forecasts. • Durable Goods Orders increased 2.9% in August, indicating robust US economic activity. • Core PCE prices for Q2 rose modestly to 2.6%, narrowly beating expectations. • Fed officials keep a “slightly restrictive” bias and watch inflation and labor market risks closely. • Attention in the markets turns to Friday’s core PCE inflation report, which may have implications for future Fed policy. The British Pound lost value against the US Dollar on Thursday as solid US economic data fueled widespread Greenback demand. Critical releases indicated a strong US economy, with Q2 GDP growth revised to 3.8%, initial jobless claims dipping to 218K, and durable goods orders rising 2.9% in August. The data underscored ongoing economic strength and bolstered confidence in the resilience of the US Dollar. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView Market eyes are finally on Friday’s central PCE inflation report, which will give some additional insight into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, Fed officials have reaffirmed the need to keep a slightly restrictive policy stance in order to weigh inflation concerns against the general stability of the labor market. Market observers are following closely as they try to discern the possible path for US interest rates and the general level of economic conditions. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD broke below the important psychological support level of 1.3400, showing bearish short-term momentum. The pair is currently testing levels around 1.3360, with current resistance at 1.3420–1.3450. Moving averages are pointing towards a downtrend, while momentum indicators are hinting at continued selling pressure, which means that further falls are possible if the pair cannot regain important support levels. FORECAST GBP/USD can remain under pressure to the downside as solid US economic figures validate the Dollar. If the pair drops below the existing support level around 1.3360, it can test new lows at levels of 1.3300–1.3320. Market participants will likely be cautious ahead of the core PCE inflation print this Friday that can further increase volatility. A correction is still possible if the Dollar loses steam or UK economic data positively improves. Under those circumstances, GBP/USD may try to re-take the 1.3400–1.3450 area, with resistance around 1.3480–1.3500 being an important hurdle to further gains. Market sentiment will be heavily reliant on future data and Fed cues, leaving the pair vulnerable to economic news both on the Atlantic side and in the US.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Appreciates on Fed-BoE Policy Divergence That Bolsters Sterling Forecast

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  • September 15, 2025
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The Pound Sterling gained against the US Dollar on Monday as policy divergence among the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England enhanced demand for the currency. GBP/USD recovered from 1.3548 to trade at approximately 1.3586, buoyed by hopes that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points this week, while the BoE is expected to maintain rates given recurring UK inflation at around 4%. With investors factoring in a falling interest rate gap, future UK jobs and inflation releases, as well as central bank meetings, are expected to determine the direction of the pair. KEY LOOKOUTS • Markets widely expect a 25 bps rate cut, with a 94% probability priced in, which could weigh on the Dollar. • The Bank of England is likely to keep rates unchanged due to inflation holding near 4%, supporting Sterling. • Employment figures on Tuesday and CPI data on Wednesday will be critical in shaping BoE policy expectations. • A close above 1.3600 for an extended period could leave the way open to 1.3681 and 1.3700, but inability to hold could push GBP/USD towards 1.3550 or the 20-day SMA of 1.3497. GBP/USD picked up pace early in the week as differing policy directions between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England underpinned the recovery in Sterling. With markets putting just a 94% chance on a 25 basis point Fed rate cut, the Dollar lost strength, as the BoE is likely to remain unchanged with stubbornly elevated inflation close to 4%. This narrowing interest rate spread has propelled the pair higher above 1.3580, with market players watchfully monitoring forthcoming UK employment and CPI releases, as well as central bank gatherings, to see if Sterling can continue its rally towards key resistance points. GBP/USD rose as policy divergence in favor of Sterling between the BoE and Fed, with the pair reversing higher above 1.3580. Hopes of a Fed rate cut, along with the BoE keeping rates unchanged, support the Pound in advance of major UK data releases. • GBP/USD reversed from 1.3548 to trade at 1.3586, demonstrating early-week resilience. • The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps, with a 94% chance priced in. • BoE will probably stick to its existing rate stance from UK’s consistent inflation level around 4%. • Divergent monetary policies are decreasing the interest rate spread, favoring Sterling. • Important UK economic releases this week are employment data on Tuesday followed by CPI on Wednesday. • Above 1.3600 close will open the way for resistance zones around 1.3681 and 1.3700. • Conversely, not holding 1.3600 could take GBP/USD down to 1.3550 or the 20-day SMA of 1.3497. The Pound Sterling rose against the US Dollar as market players factored in different monetary policy trajectories between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Anticipation of a near-term Fed rate reduction has boosted the demand for British Pound, while the BoE’s probable decision to hold interest rates in the face of sustained inflation at around 4% favors Sterling’s demand. Investors are keenly observing future UK economic releases, including jobs and Consumer Price Index data, to gauge the central bank’s next policy direction. GBP/USD DAILY CHART PRICE SOURCE: TradingView This policy disparity underscores the larger economic context, as the US prepares to loosen monetary conditions while the UK remains more wary of inflation. Market sentiment anticipates the Pound’s strength, as traders account for both central bank action and continued economic events. As a result, GBP/USD remains at center stage for investors looking for opportunities through changing global expectations of interest rates. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD continues to be in a bullish bias after recovering from recent lows, and 1.3600 has become an important level to hold for the pair to maintain upward momentum. A close above 1.3600 on the daily time frame could set the stage for resistance levels at 1.3681 and 1.3700, and a breakdown below this level could open up support areas around 1.3550 and the 20-day SMA at 1.3497. Market players are keeping close eyes on these levels to determine possible continuation or retracement of the pair’s short-term trend. FORECAST If GBP/USD continues its uptrend above 1.3600, the pair might aim for significant resistance at 1.3681 and 1.3700, with a possible extension to the July 1 high of 1.3788. Ongoing Sterling strength would probably be favored by the BoE leaving rates unchanged while the Fed takes steps towards easing, closing the interest rate differential in favor of the Pound. Favorable UK economic news will also add to bullish sentiment. To the downside, inability to maintain a breakout above 1.3600 can have GBP/USD testing support at 1.3550. Further decline could send the pair down towards the 20-day SMA at 1.3497, especially if market anticipation reverses amid surprise economic indicators or adjustment of Fed and BoE signals. Traders need to watch these levels for possible retracement or short-term corrections.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Gains as US CPI Data Sustains September Gilt Cut Expectations

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  • August 12, 2025
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GBP/USD rose on Tuesday, trading at 1.3485, as weaker US Dollar sentiment and positive UK labor market data underpinned the pair. The recent US CPI report revealed headline inflation remained at 2.7% YoY in July, and core CPI accelerated to 3.1%, leading markets to increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 94% as per the CME FedWatch Tool. In the UK, high wage growth and an unexpected decline in jobless claims canceled out hints of labor market weakness, further supporting the Pound. Different monetary policy directions between the Bank of England’s dovish easing strategy and increasing Fed dovishness are one of the prime drivers behind the currency pair’s resilience before UK GDP and US jobless claims releases later this week. KEY LOOKOUTS • July CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY, although core CPI increased to 3.1%, lifting September Fed rate cut probabilities to 94%. • Robust wage growth and declining jobless claims supported GBP even with increased unemployment rates. • BoE’s conservative easing stance is the reverse of increasing Fed dovishness, supporting GBP/USD rallies. • UK GDP and US weekly jobless claims will be important for the pair’s near-term direction. GBP/USD accelerated higher on Tuesday, hitting close to 1.3485, as a weaker US Dollar and good UK labor market data supported the pair. The US CPI report in July revealed headline inflation unchanged at 2.7% YoY, with core CPI rising to 3.1%, sending market hopes of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve to 94%. In Britain, wage growth remained strong and unemployment claims decreased unexpectedly, which balanced fears of high levels of unemployment. The monetary policy divergence—BoE’s cautious loosening compared to the increasing dovishness at the Fed—is still being supported by the Pound, with the public now looking to future UK GDP and US jobless claims for new market directions. GBP/USD reached close to 1.3485 on Tuesday as solid UK wages growth and less bullish US Dollar sentiment supported the pair. US CPI statistics bolstered September Fed rate reduction forecasts, while UK labor market stability underpinned Pound vigor in advance of significant GDP and jobless claims data. • GBP/USD was close to 1.3485, 0.37% higher on Tuesday. • US July CPI remained unchanged at 2.7% YoY; core CPI hit 3.1% from 2.9%. • Market probability of a September Fed rate cut rose to 94% from 84%. • UK pay growth remained firm at 5.0% YoY, as expected. • UK unemployment claims dropped by 6,200 in July, contrary to expectations. •   BoE reduced rates to 4.00% in August but signaled a pace of gradual easing. •  Traders now look to UK GDP and US unemployment claims for new direction. The British Pound rallied against the US Dollar on Tuesday following the issuance of critical economic statistics from both the UK and the US. In the UK, robust wage growth and a surprise fall in jobless claims tempered fears of soaring unemployment. The most recent data revealed that companies created more jobs than initially anticipated, and this has reflected the resistance of the labor market to the subtle signs of losing momentum. Conversely, the US Dollar was pressured by inflation data that reaffirmed hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, and increasing investor confidence in the Pound. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART SOURCE: TradingView The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England continues to be a key theme for markets. While the BoE recently reduced rates but communicated a measured, gradual path to further easing, the Fed is growing increasingly likely to restart policy easing in the near future. This divergence has served to underpin sentiment for the Pound over recent sessions. Market focus then shifts to tomorrow’s UK GDP report and US jobless claims figures, which may offer additional insight into economic direction and shape investor positioning in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is maintaining above the crucial psychological level of 1.3450, and near-term resistance is found around 1.3500, a move above which can pave the way towards the 1.3550 region. The opposite way, first support is at 1.3430, followed by a solid base around 1.3400. Momentum indicators continue to be positive, with RSI still lingering in bullish territory and price action continuing to trade above the 50-period moving average on the 4-hourly, indicating that short-term buying interest is still firm. FORECAST If bulls hold firm, GBP/USD may push through the 1.3500 psychological level, opening the door for a push towards the 1.3550–1.3570 resistance region. Persistent buying interest, underpinned by robust UK GDP data or dovish Fed rhetoric, may even take the pair higher towards 1.3600 in the short term. Favorable risk appetite and continuous policy divergence between the BoE and Fed would also add further fuel to the pair’s appreciation. On the other hand, a fall below 1.3450 might unleash a corrective pullback to 1.3430, with further losses targeting the 1.3400 support. A higher-than-expected US jobless claims figure or comments from Fed officials that are more hawkish might rekindle Dollar demand and cap Pound gains. A fall through 1.3400 would switch short-term direction to a more bearish bias.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Dollar Rises as GBP Is Affected by Inflation and BoE Rate Reduction Pressure

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  • April 17, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair has experienced a breather from its recent rally, pulling back to approximately 1.3230 from a high of 1.3300 in six months. Favorable news regarding US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted the US Dollar, while disappointing inflation readings in the UK have fueled expectations for possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. In spite of the pullback, the short-term GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) moving upwards and robust bullish momentum signaled by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI). A breakout above 1.3292 may propel the pair to higher levels, but a fall below 1.3164 may initiate further drops. KEY LOOKOUTS •  The positive development in US-Japan trade negotiations has brought relief to the US Dollar, which has recovered and witnessed bids. The US Dollar Index (DXY) moving up towards 99.50 may add further pressure on GBP/USD in the short run. •  UK’s soft inflation figures, especially in services, and a bleak jobs market outlook are raising hopes that the Bank of England will choose to cut interest rates, which could press down on the Pound. • The GBP/USD currency pair is in a general uptrend with the support of rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a robust V-shape recovery in the 14-day RSI, indicating that the pair may continue to rise if it surmounts recent highs. • Look for possible price reaction at 1.3292 (April 16 high) for a potential shift to 1.3430 and 1.3500. Alternatively, a fall below 1.3164 (April 15 low) may extend the decline, with 1.3063 and the psychological 1.3000 mark serving as major support. GBP/USD pair is facing a brief slowdown in its rally, retreating to near 1.3230 after hitting a six-month peak of 1.3300. This pullback is against the backdrop of firming US Dollar demand, fueled by upbeat news in US-Japan trade negotiations, which has assisted the US Dollar in its recovery. In contrast, weak UK inflation data and a less rosy labor market forecast have fueled hopes of possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England, which may put further pressure on the Pound. This notwithstanding, the short-term GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with the rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and a robust bounce in the 14-day RSI pointing to the possibility of the pair reversing its downward bias and returning to upward traction should it reclaim above the 1.3292 level. But a fall below 1.3164 will stimulate further downside action, with 1.3063 and 1.3000 being crucial supports. GBP/USD has pulled back to 1.3230 from a high of 1.3300, as the US Dollar gains strength due to favorable US-Japan trade talks. Soft UK inflation figures and hopes of Bank of England rate cuts weigh on the Pound, although the short-term outlook remains bullish if the pair is able to break above 1.3292. • The GBP/USD pair pulled back to 1.3230 from a six-month high of 1.3300, indicating a halt in the recent rally. •  The US Dollar has benefited as US-Japan trade negotiations improved, sending the US Dollar Index (DXY) to close to 99.50. •  UK inflation data, particularly in the services sector, has raised hopes for possible interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. •  The dismal UK labor market forecast, coupled with tepid inflation, increases the chances of the Bank of England relaxing its monetary policy to spur the economy. •  In spite of the retreat, the overall GBP/USD outlook is bullish, with the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) rising and hinting at further bullish momentum. •  The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made a V-shaped recovery, which indicates that bullish momentum may continue. •  A move above 1.3292 may take GBP/USD to higher levels such as 1.3430 and 1.3500, and a fall below 1.3164 may take it lower with 1.3063 and 1.3000 being support levels. The GBP/USD currency pair has seen a pullback from its recent six-month high of 1.3300, falling back to 1.3230 as the US Dollar strengthens. This Greenback strength is largely due to favorable news in US-Japan trade talks, which have eased fears over global economic uncertainty. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has also recovered to the vicinity of 99.50, which represents the increasing confidence that the US is moving away from intensifying trade tensions. Investors are more confident now that the US will concentrate on bilateral deals instead of pursuing additional trade wars, thereby providing the US Dollar with a strong support. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView While that, the Pound Sterling continues under pressure as gentle inflation numbers in the UK have teased hopes of interest rate reductions by the Bank of England. The UK services sector inflation eased to 4.7% in March from 5% in February, which may encourage the Bank of England to unwind its monetary policy to fuel growth in the economy. Additionally, a challenging labor market outlook suggests that UK employers may reduce hiring, further impacting the strength of the Pound. Despite these challenges, the overall sentiment for GBP/USD remains cautiously positive, as the pair has shown resilience, supported by market expectations of future upside potential. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD remains in an overall bullish trend, supported by rising Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) across various timeframes, indicating upward momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exhibited a V-shaped bounce, going from 40.00 up to almost 70.00, indicating strong buying pressure and sustained bullish momentum. The critical technical levels to monitor are 1.3292, the April 16 high, which would trigger further appreciation towards 1.3430 and 1.3500 if broken. On the negative side, a drop below 1.3164 (the April 15 low) might initiate a retracement to 1.3063 and the psychological barrier of 1.3000, where support is likely to be found. In general, the technical indicators suggest a cautiously positive near-term scenario for the pair. FORECAST GBP/USD pair might renew its bullish trajectory if it can break over the recent high of 1.3292 on April 16. Breaking above that mark would set the pair up to move higher, potentially toward the

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Tops Four-Month High as US Dollar Loses Ground to Cooling Inflation, Rising Economic Concerns

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  • March 13, 2025
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The GBP/USD rate hit a four-month high of 1.2989 on March 13 amid a sustained rise as the US Dollar comes under pressure following declining US inflation and increasing economic concerns. The recent decline in US inflation, combined with hopes of possible rate cuts by the Fed, has undermined the Greenback, lifting the British Pound. In the meantime, the UK economy is not without its problems, with falling housing prices and a muted outlook from the Bank of England. In spite of these issues, hopes for UK-US trade talks and hopes for persistently higher interest rates have supported the Pound. Investors are now looking to forthcoming US economic statistics and UK GDP data to further assess the prospects of both economies. KEY LOOKOUTS • Deterioration in US inflation is expected to raise hopes that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates earlier than expected, which will soften the US Dollar. • The GBP/USD pair continues to push higher, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar comes under pressure with rising fears of recession. •  The RICS Housing Price Balance dropped to 11% in February, signaling ongoing weakness in the UK housing market amid broader economic uncertainty. • Expectations of sustained high interest rates in the UK are supporting the Pound, as traders scale back earlier forecasts for aggressive easing by the BoE. The GBP/USD pair is holding steady near four-month highs, trading around 1.2960 as the US Dollar faces significant pressure. The recent dip in US inflation, with headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates in the near future, pressuring the Greenback. In contrast, the UK economy is struggling, led by a drop in house prices, but the British Pound is being cushioned by increased hopes that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates in place for a longer time. With fears of a possible US recession and continued tariff uncertainty, the Pound is strengthening as investors await future economic data, such as the US Producer Price Index and UK GDP, for further market guidance. GBP/USD remains strong near four-month highs as the US Dollar weakens on cooling inflation, fueling expectations of Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK’s economic outlook faces pressure from a declining housing market, but optimism around sustained Bank of England rates supports the Pound. • The GBP/USD pair reached 1.2989 on March 13, maintaining strength amid a weaker US Dollar. • US February inflation data revealed a trend of cooling, with both headline and core inflation slowing more than anticipated, lowering the chances of additional rate hikes. • Expectations in markets are increasing that the Federal Reserve is likely to trim interest rates in the near future because of the downtrend in inflation and possible economic concerns. • The Greenback is also subjected to further headwinds as fears of a US recession persist, putting further pressure on the US Dollar. • The UK housing sector was weak, with the Residential Market Survey recording a second successive fall in the Housing Price Balance to 11% in February. • The UK 10-year gilt yield rose, indicating expectations that the Bank of England will keep higher interest rates for longer. • UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was optimistic that the UK would not face US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which augured well for UK-US trade relations. The GBP/USD currency pair has been trending upwards, hitting a four-month high, indicating a positive sentiment for the British Pound. This change arrives as the US Dollar is increasingly under pressure, much of which stems from inflation and general economic concerns in the United States. As US inflation appeared to be easing, speculation grew that the Federal Reserve would soon decide to cut interest rates, which has further undermined the Greenback. In the meantime, the UK is working through its own economic woes, but the Pound is continuing to find favor, in part because it is expected that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates higher for longer. GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART CHART SOURCE: TradingView As the UK works through uncertainty in its housing market, where falling housing prices have been seen in recent months, there is cause for hope when it comes to trade with the US. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has shown faith that the nation would be spared tariffs on aluminum and steel via ongoing negotiations, which has allowed for a slightly more optimistic note in the market. As attention turns to pending economic data points, such as the UK GDP reports and more information regarding US inflation, prospects for both currencies remain tied to changing economic updates. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD has been in a strong bullish trend, closely following its four-month highs, with the pair repeatedly holding above the 1.2950 level. The recent escalation to 1.2989 indicates that the Pound is picking up pace, helped by the declining US Dollar. Important support is around 1.2900, while resistance is at 1.3000, where the pair is likely to encounter some consolidation before breaking higher. Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate bullish sentiment, although traders will watch closely for any pullbacks or overbought signals. As market players wait for new economic releases, these technical levels will be important in deciding the pair’s next direction. FORECAST The GBP/USD currency pair is expected to extend its bullish run, helped by a weakening US Dollar and expectation of the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates in the immediate future. The Pound can continue to push towards the psychological 1.3000 resistance level if it holds its strength above crucial support levels, around 1.2950. The optimism in the market about the UK’s trade talks with the US and the Bank of England’s hardline on interest rates should give further support to the British currency. A move above 1.3000 would potentially lead to further advances, targeting the 1.3050 to 1.3100 region, if economic numbers out of the UK remain resilient. On the

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Rises Against 1.30 as Trump Tariff Concerns Weigh on US Dollar and Fed Outlook

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  • March 11, 2025
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The Pound Sterling maintains its bullish trend against the US Dollar, trading at a four-month high as investors prepare for major US inflation data. Increasing concerns of a tariff slowdown under President Trump have deepened dovish expectations on the Federal Reserve, with market participants increasingly factoring in a possible rate cut in May. At the same time, the Bank of England’s conservative but resolute approach to keeping policy tight in the face of ongoing wage-led inflation has supported confidence in the GBP. As the GBP/USD pair edges closer to the psychological 1.3000 level, future economic data from both the US and UK will be important in deciding the next direction. KEY LOOKOUTS • Traders increasingly wager on a May Fed rate cut as fear of Trump’s tariff-led economic slowdown grows. • Pound Sterling hardens near 1.2930, with the objective of crossing the key 1.3000 level in the face of ongoing BoE hawkish sentiment. • February CPI data will determine market expectations regarding Fed’s next steps and dictate wider USD sentiment. • Bank of England policymakers favor a gradual and cautious monetary policy unwinding, underpinning GBP outlook against global counterparts. The Pound Sterling is strengthening versus the US Dollar, trading around the 1.2930 level as anxiety heightens for an impending US economic slowdown brought on by proposed tariffs by ex-President Trump. This has pushed market speculation about a sooner-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve with May now joining the list as a probable deadline. Conversely, the Bank of England takes a prudent but firm stance, with policymakers preferring a gradual pace in monetary loosening given sustained inflation pressures in the UK. As market participants wait for key US inflation and UK GDP reports, the GBP/USD currency pair remains highly bullish, targeting a breakout above the crucial psychological level of 1.3000. The Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, gaining strength due to concerns of a Trump-induced US slowdown and increased Fed rate cut expectations. The Bank of England’s dovish approach also lends support to GBP momentum as markets wait for critical US inflation and UK GDP releases. • Pound Sterling is trading close to 1.2930, backed by hopes of an extended restrictive approach from the Bank of England. • US Dollar drops due to market anxiety of a tariff-driven economic slowdown in the United States under a Trump regime. • Fed rate cut expectations are on the rise, with a 51% chance of a May cut amidst dovish moods. • Investors wait for US CPI, expecting to influence the Fed’s monetary policy in view of lower inflation. • BoE policymakers prefer a measured policy unwind, taking a conservative stance even as inflation in the service sector remains persistent. • GBP/USD targets the 1.3000 resistance level, riding on bullish sentiment and solid market mood. • UK GDP and factory data on Friday, expected to post moderate growth and drive the Pound’s next direction. The Pound Sterling is strengthening against the US Dollar as market sentiment changes with increasing fears of a slowdown in the US economy. These concerns are primarily fueled by former President Donald Trump’s planned tariff agenda, which has created uncertainty regarding the future of trade and economic growth. Consequently, investors now increasingly anticipate the Federal Reserve to start reducing interest rates as soon as May, which shows a more dovish attitude towards US monetary policy. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView In the meantime, optimism in the Pound is also underpinned by the Bank of England’s prudent yet resolute attitude in keeping existing interest rates intact. Policymakers are confident that inflation, especially fueled by robust wage pressures, remains a threat to the UK economy and must be carefully watched. In light of BoE’s indicating a gradual transition to any impending policy adjustments, investors are keen on the performance of the Pound. Everybody now waits for the coming economic numbers from both the US and the UK, which will determine future market expectations. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is displaying bullish strength as it trades above critical moving averages, reflecting a strong long-term positive trend. The pair is well supported around the 1.2930 area, with the next significant resistance at the psychological level of 1.3000. Momentum measures such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue above the neutral zone, indicating that there is scope for further rally. On the negative side, earlier retracement levels can function as support if there is a pullback, maintaining the general outlook skewed towards buyers unless there is a big reversal pattern. FORECAST The GBP/USD pair has strong short-term bullish potential, particularly if future US economic releases, such as inflation and jobs data, continue to uphold hopes of a Fed rate reduction. A definitive break above the 1.3000 psychological level may open the way for additional gains, drawing in further bullish interest. Further backing from the Bank of England’s prudent policy stance and chronic domestic inflationary pressures in the UK can continue to reinforce the Pound, maintaining the trend in place. Although there is present bullish momentum, there could be downward risks should sentiment reverse or statistics surprise the investor community. A higher-than-expected US inflation report or any shift in the Fed’s sentiment could reactivate support for the US Dollar, pushing GBP/USD lower. Furthermore, should future UK GDP and factory data prove disappointing, then the appeal of the Pound would be undermined. Under these circumstances, the pair could experience downward correction toward previous support levels, forcing traders to reconsider the outlook.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Target 1.2724 In Continuing Uptrend

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  • March 4, 2025
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The GBP/USD currency pair trades below the 1.2700 level at a three-month high, looking bullish in an uptrend channel formation. The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating firm momentum, while the pair stays above the nine- and 14-day EMAs to confirm short-term strength. Near-term resistance is at 1.2724, with further potential gains to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 figure. On the negative side, early support is at 1.2639, then 1.2613, with a break below having the potential to undermine the bullish bias and leave the pair vulnerable to 1.2560. A firm fall below the channel could take losses down to the three-month low of 1.2249. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD has immediate resistance at 1.2724, with a possible breakout taking it to 1.2780 and the psychological 1.2800 level in the near term. • The nine-day EMA at 1.2639 is also main support, with a breakdown below potentially undermining bullish momentum and sending the pair to 1.2560. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, suggesting ongoing bullish momentum and backing the expectation of further strength in the near term. • A clean break below the rising channel would change the trend bearish, leaving the pair vulnerable to the crucial support level of 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues in a bullish trend, trading below the 1.2700 level with the important resistance of 1.2724 in sight. A clean break above this level may take the pair to 1.2780 and the psychological level of 1.2800. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating ongoing bullish pressure, and the pair trading above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, affirming short-term strength. On the negative side, the nearest support is at 1.2639, with support at 1.2613 afterwards. A fall below these levels might undercut bullish sentiment, leaving a fall to 1.2560 or even the three-month low at 1.2249 if the rising channel breaks. GBP/USD is still bullish, trading below 1.2700 with major resistance at 1.2724. A breakout would take it to 1.2780, while support at 1.2639 would cap downside risks. A fall below the rising channel would undermine momentum, revealing 1.2249. • A breakout above this level would take GBP/USD to 1.2780 and the psychological resistance at 1.2800. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, reflecting ongoing strength and a bullish bias in the market. • These levels (nine- and 14-day EMAs) serve as integral support levels, holding off an anticipated downside action. • GBP/USD continues to trade within an upward-moving channel, emphasizing a bullish outlook in the near term. • A breach through the lower trend line of the upward-moving channel at 1.2560 may erode the bullish action. • Depending on bullish strength being maintained, GBP/USD may test 1.2800, which is a serious psychological resistance level. • A sharp fall below the 1.2560 support area may leave the pair vulnerable to further losses, testing the three-month low at 1.2249. The GBP/USD currency pair continues to attract attention from investors, mirroring the economic interactions between the US and the UK. Traders keenly monitor economic data releases, interest rate announcements, and geopolitical events impacting the pair’s price action. Other factors, including inflation reports, jobs reports, and monetary policies, also influence the market’s sentiment. Moreover, more general global events, such as trade policy and economic projections, also influence demand swings for both the British pound and the US dollar. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart Chart Source: TradingView Risk appetite also influences the sentiment of the GBP/USD market, with currency flows affected. In periods of economic stability, traders tend to opt for riskier assets at the expense of the pound, while uncertainty tends to fuel demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven. The dynamic interaction between Bank of England monetary policies and Federal Reserve monetary policies is still the principal driver that guides long-term currency pair trends. Additionally, economic performance, political events, and trade relations in both nations will continue to influence market expectations, making GBP/USD an important pair to follow for forex traders and investors. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD is bullish as the currency pair continues in an uptrend channel, pointing to ongoing bull run. Price action continues to be above pivotal moving averages, supporting short-term strength, and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50 showing consistent buying pressure. Resistance is seen at 1.2724, with a possible breakout setting the stage for further advances to 1.2780 and the psychological mark of 1.2800. On the other hand, near-term support is at 1.2639, with a break below having the potential to test the lower limit around 1.2560. A firm move below this level has the potential to change momentum in the bears’ favor, challenging the overall uptrend. FORECAST GBP/USD might see its further ascend, particularly in case that momentum remains healthy on the bull and the pair gets past the resistance level of 1.2724.  A breach could open up even more strength all the way towards the subsequent level of resistance of 1.2780 before the psychologically charged level of 1.2800. Encouraging economic news in the UK, like better GDP growth, falling inflation, or a hawkish policy from the Bank of England, may continue to underpin the strength of the pound. A weaker US dollar, propelled by dovish messages from the Federal Reserve or risk-on flows in international markets, may also add to bullish pressure in the pair. To the downside, GBP/USD has major support at 1.2639, and a move below it will perhaps indicate the loss of momentum, triggering a fall to 1.2560. In case bearish pressure builds and the pair moves below the rising channel, a further fall is possible, with the next strong support being at 1.2500. Factors that may trigger a bearish perspective are dismal UK economic data, a tougher Federal Reserve line on interest rates, or heightened risk aversion in international markets that boosts demand for the US dollar. A more severe correction may leave GBP/USD open to additional downward risks, and potentially challenge the three-month trough of 1.2249 if selling pressures continue.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bullish Trend Continues as Crucial Support Levels Remain Unbroken

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  • February 25, 2025
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GBP/USD currency pair continues to uphold its bullish trend, trading above the 1.2600 support level and still within an upward channel pattern. Technical analysis, such as the 14-day RSI at more than 50 and the price still above the nine- and 14-day EMAs, supports the short-term rising trend. Abrupt resistance is at 1.2690, the two-month high, with an additional target to the upside at 1.2811 and conceivably 1.2960 should the uptrend bias intensify. To the downside, support is found at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), with a break below these potentially causing a drop toward 1.2490, the lower end of the rising channel. KEY LOOKOUTS • GBP/USD is confronted with short-term resistance at the two-month high of 1.2690; a break above might propel the pair to 1.2811 and beyond. • The nine-day EMA of 1.2597 is crucial short-term support; a fall below might undermine momentum, resulting in a possible fall to 1.2490. • The 14-day RSI is still above 50, indicating ongoing bullish momentum and making further gains more likely if the trend continues. • The duo trades in an uptrend channel, with the price action on the side of further gains unless a breakdown at the lower edge at 1.2490 happens. GBP/USD pair remains in its bullish momentum, staying above the 1.2600 support level while trending in an ascending channel pattern. The pair meets short-term resistance at 1.2690, a two-month high, with additional room for further upside to 1.2811 and 1.2960 if the bullish momentum continues. Key support levels to look out for are 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a break below these levels may result in a fall towards 1.2490, the lower end of the channel. The 14-day RSI level above 50 confirms further uptrend, strengthening strong short-term price action and suggesting scope for further rises. GBP/USD currency pair continues with its upward strength, staying above 1.2600 support in an upward channel. The resistance is at 1.2690, while the support is at 1.2597. Above-50 RSI of the 14-day period indicates strength to continue, with potential to move further upwards if the trend continues. • GBP/USD is still in an uptrend channel, keeping gains above 1.2600 support. • Breaking above this two-month high has the potential to send the pair up to 1.2811 and above. • The nine-day EMA is the initial support, then 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and 1.2490. • Shows bullish strength, meaning the pair can continue its rise. • Price is above both the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, ensuring short-term bullish momentum. • If the resistance levels are broken, the pair could head to the upper edge of the channel. • A fall below 1.2490 may douse the bullish sentiment and create a reversal. GBP/USD currency pair remains to show resilience in the market, underpinned by a stable trading scenario. Investor sentiment towards the British pound continues to be positive, fueled by general economic circumstances and market sentiments. The currency pair shows a steady trend, mirroring the continued economic engagement between the UK and the US. Traders are following closely major developments such as monetary policies, inflation figures, and economic indicators that could affect long-term price action. Market participants are still active, evaluating possible opportunities while monitoring overall macroeconomic trends. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA GBP/USD is still the area of interest for investors and traders who want stability and growth. As the overall economic environment changes, trade relations, central bank policy, and geopolitics become major contributors to market dynamics. The capacity of the pair to maintain momentum showcases the equilibrium between demand and supply, as well as the faith in each economy. Market trends are still being watched by traders, making adjustments in their strategies according to economic analysis and sector developments. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair has a bullish framework, trading in an ascending channel pattern and above critical support levels. 14-day RSI is still above 50, which signals ongoing positive momentum, and the pair remains above the nine-day and 14-day EMAs, confirming short-term strength. Short-term resistance is at 1.2690, with additional upside targets of 1.2811 and 1.2960 in case bullish momentum continues. On the negative side, major support levels are at 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) and 1.2565 (14-day EMA), and a possible pullback to 1.2490 if there is increased selling pressure. Overall, technical indicators point towards an extension of the uptrend unless major support levels are breached. FORECAST GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bullish outlook, with a possibility of extending gains if it breaks above major resistance levels. Successful breakout of 1.2690 would take the pair up towards 1.2811, the three-month high, followed by the ceiling of the upward channel at 1.2960. The pair continues to be sustained by robust short-term moving averages, supporting the chance of more up movement. On the expectation of favorable market mood, given stability in economics and a weak US dollar, GBP/USD is likely to maintain its strength with increased buying appetite. GBP/USD is at risk of going lower if it is unable to maintain above important support levels. Breaking below 1.2597 (nine-day EMA) may weaken the near-term trend, which can result in a possible test of 1.2565 (14-day EMA) and further to 1.2490, the lower limit of the rising channel. In the event of intensified selling pressure on account of unforeseen macroeconomic developments or a change in market sentiment, the pair may move lower, testing lower supports. A move below 1.2490 can confirm a stronger correction, flipping the near-term bias to bearish.

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Currencies GBP/USD

GBP/USD Stays Strong Above 1.2650 on Soft US Jobless Claims and UK Economic Volatility

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  • February 21, 2025
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GBP/USD stays strong at above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar falters on weak jobless claims figures. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 219,000, topping forecasts, and mixed messages from Federal Reserve policymakers contributed to uncertainty in the market. Optimism in the wake of possible US-China trade developments supported the pair further. Nevertheless, fears over UK economic prospects remain, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issuing warnings regarding sluggish growth and a deteriorating labor market. A better-than-expected UK CPI release did little to quash Bailey’s description of the inflation surge as transient, leaving traders wary of impending policy action. KEY LOOKOUTS • The increase in US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 led to a weakening US Dollar, supporting GBP/USD but also creating doubts regarding labor market stability. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey issued a warning of slow growth and easing labor market, casting further doubts on the long-term Pound Sterling strength. • Uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate cuts by Fed officials sends mixed signals to traders, affecting market sentiment and GBPCAD price action. • Relief from potential gains in US-China trade negotiations alleviated market concerns, and it added further to support for GBP/USD in the short run. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, supported by a softer US Dollar on the back of increasing jobless claims and conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve. The rising US Initial Jobless Claims to 219,000 indicated potential labor market weakness, weighed on the USD and helped the Pound Sterling. In the meantime, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s caution regarding the slow UK economic growth and weakening labor market kept investors wary of the strength of the GBP. On the other hand, optimism over possible US-China trade negotiations progress gave risk assets some bullish push. But the uncertainty lies in the fact that the Federal Reserve is considering inflation risks and possible rate reductions, making the future direction of GBP/USD reliant on future economic releases and policy actions. GBP/USD continues to stay above 1.2650, helped by a weaker US Dollar on rising jobless claims and conflicting Fed cues. UK economic worries still exist, as BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warned of slow growth. In contrast, hopes regarding US-China trade negotiations provide some bullish push, though market volatility still exists. • The pair continues to remain above 1.2650, hitting a two-month peak of 1.2674 as the US Dollar weakens. • First-Time Jobless Claims rose to 219,000, beating forecasts and hinting at potential weakness in the labor market. • Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned of weak UK growth and a declining labor market. • A more-than-forecasted UK CPI report temporarily pushed the Pound higher, but Bailey dismissed its longer-term relevance. • Fed officials are still skeptical of inflation and upcoming rate reductions, leaving traders on their guard. • Encouraging trade negotiation news between the US and China supported market sentiment somewhat. • Future direction of GBP/USD will be based on future economic indicators, central bank actions, and international trade dynamics. GBP/USD continues to be in the spotlight as the global economic landscape influences market mood. Recent economic data indicate the concern over US labor market stability, with an increase in jobless claims pointing towards possible economic difficulties. In the meantime, in the UK, economic growth and inflation remain among the topics of debate, with policymakers weighing external influences, including global trade patterns and monetary policy, that could affect stability over the longer term. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has sounded a note of caution on the UK’s muted growth and changing labor market dynamics, indicating the importance of prudent policy decisions over the next few months. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA Globally, there has been some relief for investors from optimism surrounding US-China trade talks, which has alleviated concerns over higher tariffs and possible supply chain disruption. Also, Federal Reserve officials have given conflicting opinions on inflation trends and future interest rate actions, further confusing financial markets. With both the US and UK economies going through tough times, market players are paying close attention to economic events and central bank actions that may determine financial conditions in the near term. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD still trades above important support levels, with its bullish trend close to recent highs. The pair recently reached a two-month high of 1.2674, reflecting strong buying interest. The price stays over the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating an upward trend. Yet, resistance in the vicinity of 1.2700 can be a test, while short-term support is seen around 1.2600. Momentum indicators like the RSI indicate that the pair is heading towards overbought levels, so it can result in short-term consolidation prior to the next big move. Traders will be looking for confirmation cues to see if the pair is capable of maintaining its upward move or experience a pullback. FORECAST GBP/USD might continue to climb if sentiment remains bullish in the markets and economic indicators support the Pound. An extended breakout over the major resistance of 1.2700 might create opportunities for additional upward momentum, and the next critical resistance levels might be found near 1.2750 and 1.2800. Any weakness in upcoming US economic data, particularly in employment or inflation figures, could pressure the US Dollar further, allowing GBP/USD to climb higher. Additionally, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance or hints at potential rate cuts sooner than expected, the Pound may find additional support. Positive developments in global trade, particularly between the US and China, could also boost risk appetite and drive demand for GBP. To the negative, GBP/USD can be pressured if economic issues in the UK become more severe or if risk appetite declines. Failure to stay above 1.2600 support could result in weakening towards 1.2550 and 1.2500. Any indication of UK economic data worsening, particularly in growth and employment, would cause market sentiment to turn against the Pound. Also, if the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish, shoving back rate cut expectations, the US Dollar

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Currencies GBP/USD

Pound Sterling Appreciates on Market Sentiment: GBP/USD Tests Critical Resistance as Investors Look to Economic Releases

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  • February 20, 2025
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The Pound Sterling (GBP) has appreciated against the US Dollar (USD), trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment continues to improve. Investor sentiment has improved after President Trump’s moderated approach to tariffs and continued talks of a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Yet, doubts persist regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as the most recent FOMC minutes emphasize ongoing inflation threats from possible tariff effects. The economic outlook for the UK is also uncertain, with Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey indicating weak growth and labor market deceleration. The British pound is capped at 1.2620, with future UK Retail Sales and S&P Global PMI figures set to dictate further price movements. KEY LOOKOUTS • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales report, which will give them an idea of consumer spending patterns and the general health of the UK economy. • The initial UK and US PMI readings for February will reflect economic activity patterns and may determine the short-term direction of the Pound Sterling. • FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates based on inflation threats, which could maintain the US Dollar strong against the Pound Sterling. • The 1.2620 level of resistance and 1.2250 support zone are very important in specifying the next possible breakout or correction in the currency pair. The Pound Sterling’s shift against the US Dollar is dependent on several significant determinants, such as future UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI reports, due to release and offering new economic activity and consumer confidence insights. As for its counterpart, the Federal Reserve’s recent conservative position regarding interest rates, reflected in the most recent FOMC minutes, emphasizes inflationary pressures fueled by possible US tariff measures. This could keep the US Dollar strong, limiting GBP/USD upside potential. On the technical front, the pair faces resistance at 1.2620, aligned with the 100-day EMA, while key support rests at 1.2250. Market sentiment remains a key driver, with geopolitical developments and risk appetite influencing short-term trends. The Pound Sterling’s action against the US Dollar continues to be guided by UK Retail Sales figures, PMI data, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance. With 1.2620 acting as resistance and 1.2250 as support, geopolitical concerns and market sentiment will dictate the direction of the currency pair. • GBP/USD is trading at 1.2615 as market sentiment picks up pace, boosted by diminishing fears about Trump’s tariff policies and optimism in geopolitics. • Investors look forward to January’s retail sales figures, which will give an indication of consumer expenditure and possible economic recovery. • The UK and US February preliminary PMI figures will be instrumental in determining business activity and economic resilience. • The FOMC minutes indicate sustained high interest rates as a result of inflation fears, which may favor the US Dollar. • UK CPI increased more than expected, but the BoE is still hesitant to cut rates further due to economic weakness. • GBP/USD is resisted at 1.2620 and major support at 1.2250, where it will make its next move. • Market sentiment is influenced by news regarding Trump’s trade policies and continued Russia-Ukraine peace talks. The movement of the Pound Sterling is now being dictated by wider economic and geopolitical events. Investors are following UK Retail Sales figures and S&P Global PMI closely, which will paint a clearer picture of economic activity and consumer confidence. A better-than-anticipated retail performance will indicate strength in the UK economy, while PMI figures will reveal business conditions in the UK and US. Also, recent inflation data have indicated a short-term spike, and as a result, the Bank of England has kept monetary policy tight. Governor Andrew Bailey has already cautioned that growth could be slow, and any additional policy moves will be based on new data. GBP/USD Daily Price Chart TradingView Prepared by ELLYANA On the international front, market sentiment has been better because of a more cautious approach by President Trump on trade policies. Although early fears about tariffs on Chinese imports and other major sectors caused volatility, Trump’s recent statements on a potential trade deal with China have calmed fears. But uncertainty persists as there is no clear plan on tariff implementation. While meanwhile, talks on a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire have also fostered a risk-positive sentiment, though Ukraine dismissed any agreement in the absence of its direct participation. As conditions in the world economy and politics change, investors will be careful, keeping an eye on critical events that would affect market stability. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GBP/USD currency pair is fighting to sustain above the 1.2600 level, and resistance is situated at 1.2620, which is coinciding with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The duo is now oscillating around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement point, calculated from the September-end high to the January-middle low, which represents a key area for possible breakout or pullback. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is barely managing to stay above 60.00, and if it fails to hold above this level, it could signal weakening bullish momentum. On the negative side, major support is at 1.2250, and a fall below this level may initiate further selling pressure. To have a stronger uptrend, GBP/USD must break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2767, which would signal a continuation of bullish sentiment. FORECAST The potential for the upside in GBP/USD relies on better market sentiment and major economic data releases. If UK Retail Sales for January and February S&P Global PMI reports surpass predictions, this is likely to be a confidence booster for the UK economy, driving the Pound upward. Favorable change in Brexit developments or better-than-forecasted employment statistics are additional strengths for the currency. Furthermore, if the Federal Reserve is hinting at a softer approach towards interest rates in light of slowing inflation, the US Dollar might depreciate, leaving GBP/USD more space to move upwards. Breaking above the resistance level of 1.2620 might signal more upward gains towards the 1.2767 area, suggesting positive momentum. On the negative, any indication of economic weakness within the UK, for example poor retail sales or a fall

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